"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Wednesday, October 03, 2012

Advanced Ranking of top 150 college basketball teams for 2014 based on; 1, 'solid roster,' 2, spots open for recruits, and 3, if they can keep NBA prospects

(Note: the master table at the bottom was updated October 5 to reflect the biggest family signing ever as Kentucky landed Andrew and Aaron Harrison with a combined projected 16.5 Value Add.  South Florida, South Carolina and Illinois also had signings.  The master table is now ordered based on an average of Rnk 2 (NBA prospects leave in the draft) and Rnk 3 (they stay with their teams).  An average is probably the most accurate, as Kentucky is easily 1st if all four stay, drops to 24th if all 4 leave, and with keeping half the talent they would be 3rd in the country behind Arizona and Memphis in 2014.)

You can check out the 2013 preseason Value Add rankings anytime by going to www.valueaddbasketball.com and putting "2013" in the year field and "team" in the main search field.  However, in light of some very good observations in response to my 2014 rankings, I went through a systematic appraisal of the three main elements that will project how good each team should be in 2014.

The first step is adding up the projected Value Adds of everyone currently expected to be on the 2014 roster for all teams.  Players who have either signed already, or still have eligibility left and are NOT expected to be drafted after the 2013 season.  When we count just those players, Arizona has the best roster going into 2014, Memphis is second and Marquette is third.  Here is the first part of the chart that will grow throughout this piece:

2014 Rankings / players expected on roster 

Team2014 rosterRnk1
Arizona53.571
Memphis49.642
Marquette45.063
Iowa40.114
California39.775
Providence39.776
Notre Dame39.217
Virginia36.478
Stanford36.129
Indiana35.6910
Arkansas35.0611
Texas34.8212
Maryland33.8313
Georgetown32.7814
Alabama32.6315
Florida32.5816
North Carolina St.32.5417
Michigan St.32.1218
Nevada Las Vegas31.8219
Kansas31.7620

Of course this isn't the whole picture.  Kentucky is the 113th best team based just on this part of the equation, because four of their players are expected to leave in the 2013 draft and they have not yet signed most of their class for next year as they can wait until late to take several of the top 20 players.  In order to get a grasp on how much value each team would likely get from the 2013 recruits they are currently chasing (freshman in 2014 Value Add), I first looked at what the expected Value Add was for players based on their ESPN Rating.

Based on the new ESPN Ratings scale for prospects, any recruit with a rating of 64 or higher will actually project to add Value.  This scale does NOT apply to past classes from 2007 to 2012, as ESPN's old scale gave much higher figures.  For example, right now there are only 6 players with a 96 or higher rating, while on the old scale ESPN averaged giving a 96 or higher to 55 players per class.  Likewise there are currently just 283 recruits from the 2014 class with a 70 or higher and on the old scale for past years ESPN averaged giving 1,069 recruits per class a 70 or higher.  So this year's "70" would have very likely been between an 80 and 90 in past years.  However, based on the new system for 2013 recruits only, here is the anticipated Value Add based on ESPN rating:

ESPN 9/30/2012Value add
968.0
957.0
946.0
935.5
925.0
914.5
904.0
893.5
883.1
872.8
862.5
852.2
842.1
832.0
821.9
811.8
801.7
791.6
781.5
771.4
761.3
751.2
741.1
731.0
710.9
720.8
700.7
690.6
680.5
670.4
660.3
650.2
640.1
630.0

While I have been using a place holder to measure upcoming freshman classes, a critic pointed out in my last post that I was not accounting for how many open roster spots each team had to fill in recruitment.  To address this hole, I listed out the number of spots each team has to fill for next year.  I then looked up the uncommitted 2013 recruits (would be freshmen in 2014 season in Value Add) showing an interest in each team, and I basically assumed the team would get one in five of the kids at which they had a shot.  So if a team had 4 spots to fill I assumed they would get the 3rd best recruit they were after, the 8th best, the 13th best and the 18th best - though I had to estimate the curve when I got past the players that actually showed up in the ESPN data search.

I will use Duke as the example for this 2nd step.  Duke only ranked 32nd based on the players they already have committed through the 2014 season, with 27.84 in Value Add.  However, assuming they get one of the top 5 recruits currently considering them that should add 6 in Value Add (under R1 below for 1st Recruit), then another 5.0 in Value Add for their 2nd recruit, then 4.0, 3.5, 2.5 and 2.4 since they have six spots to fill.  When you add what they will likely get from recruits, Duke shoots all the way from 27.84 to 51.24 and moves from the 32nd best roster to the 3rd best roster ahead of Marquette - which is "full" with no spots open for a new recruit.  Of course, we know there are roster changes and MU could end up with a big recruit next year, but right now we are just filling empty spots.  Here is our new Top 20 once we divide up the uncommitted recruits among the schools they are considering.

Team2014 rosterRnk1R1R2R3R4R5R6likely recrRnk2
Arizona53.5716059.571
Memphis49.6422.552.142
Duke27.84326543.52.52.451.243
Marquette45.06345.064
Kansas31.762073.5244.265
Notre Dame39.2171.31.20.80.442.916
Providence39.7761.70.742.177
North Carolina28.293063.12.42.342.098
Georgetown32.78144.52.2241.489
California39.7751.60041.3710
Iowa40.1140.6040.7111
Texas34.82123.52.240.5212
Florida32.58164.51.60.739.3813
Stanford36.1291.80.238.1214
Virginia36.4781.638.0715
Louisville29.95243.51.61.41.237.6516
Michigan St.32.12182.51.31.237.1217
Connecticut31.58213.51.20.736.9818
Alabama32.63152.510.736.8319
North Carolina St.32.54172.50.900035.9420

Which leads us to the final step, considering whether or not the NBA prospects leave for the pros.  Up until now we assume that Noel, Goodwin, Poythress and Harrow all leave Kentucky for the NBA draft in 2013.  If all of them leave, then even with the expected great recruiting class again next year, Kentucky only has the 24th best team in the country with 35.03.  With UCLA taking the top recruit from them this year and everyone going to the NBA, they are going to have to have some of those four decide to stay for 2014.  If all four were to stay, then Kentucky projects to shoot all the way up to a 63.5 Value Add to pass Arizona.

As you look down the list, in addition to the three teams already ahead of Marquette after step two, another 15 teams would pass Marquette IF all of their NBA prospects decide to skip the draft and stay for the 2014 season - so Marquette could drop as far as 19th in a worse case scenario.  However, it is pretty safe to assume that at least a majority of these prospects will take the paycheck and enter the draft.  The beauty of the 2014 season for Marquette is that even if they do not get another recruit, they are loaded AND do not have anyone on the roster projected to be drafted so they will have a much easier time keeping the team together.  In the end we can assume a few of these 15 teams manage to keep their NBA prospects on campus for another year, but if Marquette is not hit with injuries or transfers, they are likely to end up much closer to 4th than to 19th in the country.  Here are the top 150 teams in the land for the 2014 season (see Rnk3 at the right), and where each of them rank if they lose their NBA prospects (Rnk2) and if they don't get any more recruits with Value Add (Rnk3).

RnkAveTeam2014 rosterRnk1R1R2R3R4R5R6likely recrRnk2Add NBA if stayIf stayRnk3
1Arizona53.5716059.57159.572
2Memphis49.6422.552.142Thomas57.514
3Kentucky28.33072.52.42.434.7324Noel, Goodwin, Poythress, Harrow71.61
4Duke27.84336543.52.52.451.24351.2410
5North Carolina28.293163.12.42.342.098McAdoo, Hairston, Bullock59.443
6Texas34.82123.52.240.5212McClellan, Kabongo57.385
7Georgetown32.78144.52.2241.489Porter53.568
8Indiana35.691035.6921Zeller. Olapido56.847
9UCLA26.77374.52.233.4726Muhammad, Anderson, Smith57.16
10Marquette45.06345.06445.0619
11Kansas31.762073.5244.26544.2621
12Louisville29.95243.51.61.41.237.6516Dieng, Blackshear50.7513
13Michigan St.32.12182.51.31.237.1217Dawson, Payne50.8512
14Michigan28.91291.81.71.61.335.3122Burke, Hardaway51.1311
15Notre Dame39.2171.31.20.80.442.91642.9122
16Florida32.58174.51.60.739.3813Young45.9116
17North Carolina St.32.74152.50.900036.1420Brown. Leslie48.9514
18Providence39.7751.70.742.17742.1726
19Ohio St.24.59434.51.81.632.4930Craft, Thomas51.699
20California39.7761.60041.371041.3727
21Connecticut31.58213.51.20.736.9818Napier45.6117
22Alabama32.63162.510.736.8319Releford45.318
23Arkansas35.061135.0623Young46.7315
24Iowa40.1140.6040.711140.7129
25Maryland33.831333.8325Stoglin, Len44.3520
26Stanford36.1291.80.238.121438.1232
27Virginia36.4781.638.071538.0733
28Nevada Las Vegas31.82190.70.50.4033.4227Moser40.8128
29Oklahoma St.29.07272.30.70.3032.3731Nash39.331
30Syracuse18.02794.52.21.21.110.928.9239Fair, Carter-Williams42.2525
31Colorado29.722529.7233Roberson39.4930
32Baylor22.08603.50025.5852Austin, Heslip42.5823
33Pittsburgh23.015420.225.2155Adams, Patterson42.2824
34Houston31.48220.90.40.232.982832.9836
35Georgia Tech30.19231.61.132.892932.8937
36West Virginia29.43261.530.933230.9339
37Tennessee22.65552.21.426.2548Stokes33.6835
38St. John's18.26783.51.30.90.624.5659Harrison34.9934
39Texas A&M26.13402.31.129.533429.5340
40Wisconsin24481.71.210.80.629.33529.341
41New Mexico28.113210.1029.213629.2142
42Villanova27.49341.6029.093729.0943
43Texas Tech28.982828.983828.9844
44South Carolina26.65381.628.254028.2545
45Iowa St.27.24350.7027.944127.9446
46Purdue26.99360.427.394227.3949
47Xavier26.44390.900027.344327.3450
48Missouri21.01621.60.322.9165Pressey31.7538
49Oregon St.25.6421.40027442751
50Rutgers22.49562.21.60.40.226.894526.8953
51Louisiana St.23.92511.70.70.326.624626.6254
52Illinois24.35451.60.426.354726.3556
53Harvard25.78410.4026.184926.1857
54South Florida244910.20.20.226502658
55Seton Hall23.89521.60.4025.895125.8959
56Virginia Tech22.18581.60.70.50.30.225.485325.4860
57Oklahoma22.17592.30.40.30.225.375425.3761
58Mississippi24.41440.50.2025.115625.1163
59Virginia Commonwealth23.99500.80.124.895724.8964
60DePaul22.49571.60.824.895824.8965
61Richmond24.05470.20000024.256024.2566
62La Salle23.43530.80000024.236124.2367
63South Carolina Upstate24.07460000024.076224.0769
64San Diego St.18.46741.30.60.40.3021.0670Franklin26.6155
65Minnesota21.63611.40.323.336323.3370
66Kansas St.19.47671.41.10.80.523.276423.2771
67Southern California19.02711.60.40.221.2269Dedmon24.1668
68Creighton15.69880.60016.2989McDermott27.8548
69Oregon19.51661.60.60.20021.916621.9173
70Wake Forest20.74630.60.121.446721.4475
71Southern California17.74811.61.10.40.30.20.121.446821.4476
72Gonzaga14.48971.10.20.100015.8892Pangos26.9652
73Vermont20.35640.2000020.557120.5577
74Auburn19.33691.220.537220.5378
75Denver20.08650.40000020.487320.4879
76Texas El Paso19.15700.70.420.257420.2580
77Mississippi St.18.54731.50.20020.247520.2481
78Northwestern13.761031.4000015.16100Sobolewski25.1962
79Clemson19.42680.720.127620.1283
80St. Mary's18.3760.70.50.30.10019.97719.984
81Washington St.18.28771.20.20019.687819.6885
82Saint Joseph's10.1913410.20011.39125Galloway, Aiken27.9147
83Fresno St.18800.70.50.30.10019.67919.686
84Wichita St.18.41750.90.1019.418019.4187
85Illinois St.18.86720.40.100019.368119.3688
86Brigham Young16.32852.218.528218.5291
87UAB17.49820.40017.898317.8993
88Florida St.12.8111220.50.40.20.1016.0191Miller19.0890
89Georgia10.821231.50.100012.42116Caldwell-Pope22.672
90Cleveland St.17.29830.1017.398417.3995
91Tulsa16.25860.80.300017.358517.3596
92Central Florida15.67891.300016.978616.9798
93South Dakota St.16.8384000016.838716.8399
94North Texas9.551410.80.60.411.35126Mitchell21.7674
95Penn St.14.64941.60.116.348816.34100
96Butler16.01870016.019016.01101
97Drexel10.671260.70.2000011.57123Massenat20.1382
98Boise St.15.28900.500015.789315.78102
99Texas Christian14.75930.80.100015.659415.65103
100Vanderbilt14.11001.40000015.59515.5104
101Massachusetts10.551280.90000011.45124Williams19.2989
102Cincinnati13.161071.80.400015.369615.36105
103St. Louis14.63950.70000015.339715.33106
104Northeastern14.6960.60000015.29815.2107
105Quinnipiac15.1910.10000015.29915.2108
106Wagner15.069200000015.0610115.06109
107Washington10.091351.60000011.69121Wilcox17.8394
108Akron14.33980.40000014.7310214.73111
109Arizona St.13.721050.700014.4210314.42112
110North Dakota St.14.1499000014.1410414.14113
111Florida Gulf Coast14.021010000014.0210514.02114
112George Mason12.91101.100001410614115
113Loyola Marymount13.82102000013.8210713.82116
114Miami FL10.31331.81.40.20.10013.810813.8117
115UC Santa Barbara13.7510400000013.7510913.75118
116Rhode Island13.011080.513.5111013.51119
117Robert Morris13.35106000013.3511113.35120
118Temple11.531171.5000013.0311213.03121
119Mercer12.991090000012.9911312.99122
120Charlotte11.281201.6000012.8811412.88123
121Southern Methodist12.8311100012.8311512.83124
122Utah St.7.9815600007.98157Medlin17.3197
123Northern Iowa6.831660.407.23163Tuttle17.9492
124Tulane12.38113000012.3811712.38126
125Marshall12.3411400000012.3411812.34127
126Davidson12.031150.10000012.1311912.13128
127Wisconsin Green Bay9.381450000009.38146Brown14.77110
128Delaware11.9811600000011.9812011.98129
129Boston College11.41180.2011.612211.6130
130San Diego11.3511900000011.3512711.35131
131Ohio10.791240.30000011.0912811.09132
132Arkansas Little Rock11.0612100000011.0612911.06133
133Nebraska9.671380.90.4000010.9713010.97134
134Indiana St.10.87122000010.8713110.87135
135Drake10.631270.20000010.8313210.83136
136Southern Mississippi10.761250000010.7613310.76137
137Dayton10.551290.1000010.6513410.65138
138Northern Colorado10.5513000010.5513510.55139
139St. Francis NY10.4513100000010.4513610.45140
140Louisiana Tech10.381320000010.3813710.38141
141Utah9.51430.700010.213810.2142
142College of Charleston9.61390.3000009.91399.9143
143Old Dominion9.84136000009.841409.84144
144Towson9.751379.751419.75145
145Georgia Southern8.151541.40.20009.751429.75146
146Long Beach St.9.581400000009.581439.58147
147Buffalo9.541420000009.541449.54148
148Manhattan9.481440000009.481459.48149
149Cal St. Northridge9.2814600009.281479.28151
150Boston University9.17147000009.171489.17152

1 comment:

John Fuston said...

This equation is BS. Facts say that Evan with U of K losing four starters they are getting a historic recruiting class with 6 McDonalds All Americans and possibly Wiggins...returning Wiltjer, Cauly Stein....They are without a doubt the favored preseason 1. And favored to cut down the nets at the end of the season.