"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Friday, October 26, 2012

Marquette drops out of AP, ESPN and Value Add Top 25; opens with #4 Ohio State (Craft 8th best player and Thomas 12th)

I can tell basketball season is back upon us when I post an article and realize one of our other writers was writing simultaneously!  Before looking at this post, please read the great take on the tough job of Athletic Director below by clicking here.

The preseason polls are out, and Marquette is out of both top 25s but getting a chance to make an immediate mark vs. Ohio State on November 9 at 6 p.m. CST on NBC Sports.

The Buckeyes are ranked #4 by both the coaches and writers.  While Value Add ranks them slightly lower at #10, it also indicates that they should have the #2 duo in the country.  Aaron Craft projects as the 8th best player in the country, while Deshaun Thomas ranks as the 12th best player.  Marquette is deeper, as the Buckeyes only have seven top 1000 players while Marquette has ten.

Both the AP and ESPN agreed with Value Add’s appraisal of Indiana as the #1 team in the country this year.  In most cases the coaches and writers poll was pretty close to Value Add.

A few changes in the past couple of months – three players were mistakenly flagged after last season as going to the NBA but stayed and are now being added back to the database.  Jeff Withey still being at Kansas pushed them up to 7th place and temporarily bumped Marquette out of the Top 25.  Sean Kilpatrick of Cincinnati and Michael Snaer at Florida State were not enough to get either team back into the top 25.

While I doubt Kentucky will be able to reload this year for a title run and believe their #3 is too high, I am sure they will be higher than Value Adds 18th, and Value Add projects they are the frontrunner for the 2014 title.  I am sure UNC will likewise outperform their raw Value Add.

My question is whether or not UCLA is actually this year’s Kentucky – a team that could be at the Final Four behind incredible freshmen.  It was UCLA that beat out Kentucky for Shabazz Muhammad and with fellow freshman Kyle Anderson they could be much better than their 13th rank – and Value Add calculates that duo could approach the level of Wall and Cousins for their freshman season.

The following are my notes on all top 25 teams.

And my headline was a teaser.  While Kansas did bump Marquette out of the top 25 temporarily, when the NCAA ruled that Ricardo Ledo must sit out this year it bumped Providence down to 33rd and put Marquette back in the top 25.  The fact that Kris Dunn is supposed to be out for the 1st semester due to surgery drops them to 58th until his return.

TEAMValue AddAPESPNNotes on differences
Indiana 111Said this the day after the title
Louisville 622Marra's injury dropped them from 3rd to 6th
Kentucky 1833Sure they will be closer to 3rd, but believe a year between title chances
Ohio State1044Only UCLA better duo than #8 Craft/#12 Thomas
Michigan2755Only UCLA & Ohio St. have better duo than #22 Burke & #42 McGary, Value Add just doesn't show depth
North Carolina State466 
Kansas777Jeff Withey IS still on roster
Duke1488Perhaps a little reputation?
Syracuse2299See Duke above?
North Carolina311112Like Kentucky, hard to measure but need a year to rebuild
Arizona1212112014 National Contender
UCLA21313FR Muhammad and Anderson make them this year's Kentucky - could be Wall-Cousins level
Michigan State91414 
Memphis31716Probably too high, but 4 juniors rank higher than any MU player
UNLV818194 top 200 players, one from each class
Baylor51918#38 Heslip, #52 Jackson, #74 Austin
San Diego State542020only 2 players in top 400, none in top 100
Notre Dame172223 
Cincinnati4324 Sean Kilpatrick IS still on roster, but still don't have them ranked
Florida State962524Michael Snaer IS still on roster, don't know value of 7-foot-3 Boris Bojanovsky
Texas11 24People don't know how much freshman improve - sophomores McClellon #36, Holmes #99, Kabongo #157, Bond #321
Pittsburgh13  Jump sounds too high, but don't expect 2012 repeat
Arkansas20  Is BJ Young really a top 10 player?
Georgetown24  If Otto Porter really a top 10 player?
Marquette25  dropped out due to Kansas, then back ahead of Providence

Below are the current top 50 players according to Value Add - and as always corrections are welcome - just email jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com or send through www.valueaddbasketball.com.

RnkTop 50 playersTeam
1Zeller, CodyIndiana
2McDermott, DougCreighton
3Muhammad, ShabazzUCLA
4Porter, OttoGeorgetown
5Anderson, KyleUCLA
6McCollum, CJLehigh
7Young, BJArkansas
8Craft, AaronOhio St.
9Perry, KendrickYoungstown St.
10Galloway, LangstonSaint Joseph's
11Roberson, AndreColorado
12Thomas, DeshaunOhio St.
13Medlin, PrestonUtah St.
14Pangos, KevinGonzaga
15Canaan, IsaiahMurray St.
16Noel, NerlensKentucky
17Pressey, PhilMissouri
18Dieng, GorguiLouisville
19Cooley, JackNotre Dame
20Napier, ShabazzConnecticut
21Massenat, FrantzDrexel
22Burke, TreyMichigan
23Tuttle, SethNorthern Iowa
24Mitchell, TonyNorth Texas
25Wolters, NateSouth Dakota St.
26Kilpatrick, SeanCincinnati
27Releford, TrevorAlabama
28Caldwell-Pope, KentaviousGeorgia
29Stoglin, TerrellMaryland
30Boynton, KennyFlorida
31Withey, JeffKansas
32Broekhoff, RyanValparaiso
33McGruder, RodneyKansas St.
34Wyatt, KhalifTemple
35Harrison, D'AngeloSt. John's
36McClellan, SheldonTexas
37Sobolewski, DaveNorthwestern
38Heslip, BradyBaylor
39Patterson, LamarPittsburgh
40Dellavedova, MatthewSt. Mary's
41Williams, ChazMassachusetts
42McGary, MitchMichigan
43Threatt, JarvisDelaware
44Dixon, MichaelMissouri
45O'Neale, RoyceDenver
46Kazemi, ArsalanRice
47Cobbs, JustinCalifornia
48Covington, RobertTennessee St.
49Johnson, KerronBelmont
50Henton, LaDontaeProvidence


John said...

Kazemi, Arsalan -- Isn't going to be playing for Rice this season. He transfered to Oregon. Just FYI.

Heisenberg said...

Does anyone know if Mayo is out for entire season, or can he comeback after 1 semester of academic improvement? I know Wade had to take the entire year, but I wasn't sure on the "academically inelgible" process. Didn't like Buzz's response as "indefinite".