"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Tuesday, December 16, 2014

Can Fischer stop MU opponents from scoring 73.2% of trips?

We covered the challenge Luke Fischer faces against Arizona State's front court in his first appearance. Not only does ASU have a duo at forward that can each put up 20/10 numbers, but MU without Fischer has been in the bottom 25 of all 351 teams in three categories - blocked shots (5.1%), 2-point attempts (55.8% allowed) and defensive rebounds (allowed 40.1% offensive rebounds). That means that in a possession in which MU does not force a turnover, and the opponent attempts only two-pointers, the opponent scores 73.2% of the time:

55.8% Score 1st shot

9.9% 1 offensive rebound, then score

4.4% 2nd offensive rebound, then score

1.9% 3rd offensive rebound, then score

0.9% 4th offensive rebound, then score

0.4% 5th offensive rebound, then score

73.2% Total % chance of scoring if no steal, foul, 3-point attempt

Pretty scary, but that is what Fischer is here to stop. Basically MU needs to get help from Fischer protecting the rim and clearing the boards, or if he is on the bench they made need to really gamble for the steal.This is a pretty big spotlight for his first trip back on the court since leaving Indiana a year ago.

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