"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, November 01, 2015

Simulated Game-by-Game: Loss at Stanford or in NIT Semi vs. Syracuse Caps 23-13 Season

After updating the Value Add database today, I immediately simulated a season in which Marquette went 23-13 (including 3-11 against NCAA-bound teams) to earn a 2-seed in the NIT where we lost at Stanford in the quarterfinals or to Syracuse in the semis at MSG.

Henry Ellenson (7.4 points in Value Add) and Duane Wilson (5.27) makes MU 12.67 points better per game than they would be without either - and they join Butler, Providence and Xavier with two players in the top 5% of all players. The only team with more is Villanova (5 players in top 5%).

Winning those two would revenge past heartbreaking NCAA losses to both and give us a shot at South Carolina for the NIT title. Obviously just a couple of extra wins turn a 2-seed in the NIT into an NCAA team, so hopefully MU is back in the Big Dance.

The following is the game-by-game giving the team with the higher Value Add the win once adjusting for home court advantage and the fact that young teams like MU improve more during a season than more experienced teams. This is why I have MU as a Big East 6-seed defeating Xavier as a 3-seed in the opening round of the Big East tournament. I also have MU as the best team in the NIT tournament, but with the overall record justifying a 2-seed, MU would play AT Stanford and then in MSG vs. Syracuse to lose home court advantage.

For MU and then each opponent I list the team's National rank based purely on the sum of their players' Value Add (Marquette is the 55th best team based on 28.28 in total Value Add and Belmont is 133rd based on 16.25).

"NBA" is how many NBA players the team will likely have, so MU has a 1.0 based on Henry Ellenson having a 91% chance and JJJ and Duane Wilson having a small chance to make the NBA. The only opponent with more potential NBA talent is LSU with a 1.4 as the rounded sum of Ben Simmons (96% chance), Tim Quarterman (34%), Craig Victor (8%), Elbert Robinson (4%) and Josh Gray (4%). In other words, we expect LSU to produce 1.4 NBA players like we expect the average American couple to produce 1.9 children.

MU's first opponent Belmont would win the OVC to get the bid and a 16-seed based on Value Add, giving MU three projected NCAA opponents in 10 days with Iowa (11-seed) and LSU (7-seed). While a big underdog against LSU the first game in New York, MU would have the edge in the second New York game November 24 - whether it be against NC State or Arizona State.

Obviously the March opponents in the NIT, NCAA or any other tournament could be anyone, and I laid out the extra tournament games in both the Big East and NIT, even though under this scenario MU would be eliminated before facing Nova for the Big East title or Syracuse or South Carolina in the NIT Final Four.

Nat'lTeamPredValue AddNBAConfBidSeedMU vs.
55Marquette28.281.0BE2 NIT2-seedNA
133BelmontW16.250.0OVC1 NCAA16-seed11/13/2015
45IowaW30.670.1B101 NCAA11-seed11/19/2015
27Louisiana St.L38.761.4SEC1 NCAA7-seed11/23/2015
62North Carolina St.W27.170.2ACC2 NIT3-seed11/24/2015
282Jackson St.W6.740.0SWAC11/29/2015
296San Jose St.W5.770.0MWC12/8/2015
21WisconsinL39.340.7B101 NCAA6-seed12/12/2015
319Chicago St.W6.590.0WAC12/21/2015
51Seton HallW29.380.3BE2 NIT1-seed12/30/2015
31GeorgetownL34.630.3BE1 NCAA8-seed1/2/2016
76ProvidenceL24.370.8BE3 CBI2-seed1/5/2016
150St. John'sW14.710.0BE1/9/2016
10VillanovaL42.610.6BE1 NCAA3-seed1/13/2016
35XavierW32.620.3BE1 NCAA9-seed1/16/2016
122DePaulW17.90.0BE4 CIT6-seed1/20/2016
150St. John'sW14.710.0BE1/23/2016
324StetsonW3.90.0ASun5 Ineligible1/27/2016
40ButlerL33.940.1BE1 NCAA10-seed1/30/2016
51Seton HallL29.380.3BE2 NIT1-seed2/3/2016
35XavierL32.620.3BE1 NCAA9-seed2/6/2016
76ProvidenceW24.370.8BE3 CBI2-seed2/10/2016
80CreightonW23.460.0BE3 CBI3-seed2/13/2016
122DePaulW17.90.0BE4 CIT6-seed2/20/2016
80CreightonW23.460.0BE3 CBI3-seed2/24/2016
10VillanovaL42.610.6BE1 NCAA3-seed2/27/2016
31GeorgetownL34.630.3BE1 NCAA8-seed3/1/2016
40ButlerL33.940.1BE1 NCAA10-seed3/5/2016
35XavierW32.620.3BE1 NCAA9-seed3/10/2016
31GeorgetownL34.630.3BE1 NCAA8-seed3/11/2016
10VillanovaL42.610.6BE1 NCAA3-seed3/12/2016
159Weber St.W14.150.2BSky2 NIT7-seed3/17/2016
61MississippiW27.260.1SEC2 NIT3-seed3/22/2016
52StanfordL29.010.2P122 NIT1-seed3/24/2016
53SyracuseL28.680.2ACC2 NIT1-seed3/29/2016
50South CarolinaL29.680.1SEC2 NIT1-seed3/31/2016
23-13 (Nova, Syracuse, SC)

Ellenson ranks in the top 60 of all players. Remember, even though he is one of the best 10 players based on mock drafts, players are drafted based on how good they will get to be - so always be patient with freshmen! The huge improvement for most players is during the offseason between freshman and sophomore seasons.

1 comment:

gtmoBlue said...


For the sake of accuracy, as their inclusion may not make much of a numbers difference, pls add the following players to Creighton's 2016 roster.

Fwd Cole Huff, transfer from Nevada
PG Malik Albert, Juco from Mott CC

You already have PG Maurice Watson,transfer from Boston U listed. Thanks.


Fwd Cole HUFF (transfer from Nevada)
Juco PG Malik Albert (Mott CC)