"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Monday, January 04, 2016

Updated Rankings: Dunn would be 3rd Nationally Without Missed Games; MU Must Finish in top 6 for any chance

It may be surprising that Luke Fischer and Henry Ellenson stayed pretty close to their overall national rankings after two Big East games (they are now at 106th and 347th). Basically, Value Add measures for the level of each opponent - and in essence viewed really good numbers against some very bad teams as being roughly the same performance as bad numbers against much stronger opponents.

The big problem right now is that the tiny chance of an at large bid being even lower at this point - it would likely take a Big East tournament win to make March Madness. The hard part is MU really must finish at least 6th to avoid a "play-in" game - three upsets in three nights while playing teams equally as tired is hard much trying to win four games in four days is near impossible (see performances against Seton Hall and then Villanova a few hours later from last year).

Anyway, not pretty, but here are the top 20 Value Add teams and where all Big East teams rank if you subtract all the players defense from offense (that's a lot of good teams to pass) followed by the Top 25 Value Add players in the conference and all Marquette's players.

6Michigan St.34.01-10.0344.05
9Miami FL33.41-8.6942.10
11West Virginia28.81-12.5541.37
12North Carolina36.61-4.5641.17
18Iowa St.34.01-4.7138.73
20Saint Mary's33.51-4.2237.74
45Seton Hall24.91-6.8131.72
302St. John's5.24-1.937.17

As for Kris Dunn, he would rank third in the country if not for the three games in which he had the flu (he had a negative rating for the Boston University 15 minutes he played with the flu, and a 0.0 for the two games he missed).

RnkRank among 4000+ PlayersTeamHtYrOffenseDefenseTotal Value
17Hart, Josh 3Villanova6' 5"Jr7.95-2.6511.82
22Dunn, Kris 3Providence6' 4"Jr6.42-3.8011.43
51Bentil, Ben 0Providence6' 9"So7.48-1.6710.33
63Arcidiacono, Ryan 15Villanova6' 3"Sr7.44-1.289.89
72Ochefu, Daniel 23Villanova6' 11"Sr5.29-3.179.63
90Rodriguez, Desi 20Seton Hall6' 6"So6.45-1.769.21
94Farr, James 2Xavier6' 10"Sr5.05-2.979.18
106Fischer, Luke 40Marquette6' 11"Jr6.85-1.039.04
113Smith-Rivera, D'Vauntes 4Georgetown6' 3"Sr6.81-0.968.93
117Garrett, Billy 5DePaul6' 6"Jr7.740.048.85
131Jones, Roosevelt 21Butler6' 4"Sr6.35-1.088.58
132Henry, Myke 4DePaul6' 6"Sr6.18-1.248.57
174Groselle, Geoffrey 41Creighton7' 0Sr6.04-0.848.02
179Bullock, Rodney 5Providence6' 8"So4.95-1.907.99
200Bluiett, Trevon 5Xavier6' 6"So4.75-1.807.69
220Chrabascz, Andrew 45Butler6' 7"Jr6.21-0.057.39
259Carrington, Khadeen 0Seton Hall6' 3"So4.54-1.527.06
264Reynolds, Jalen 1Xavier6' 10"Jr3.39-2.507.01
271Davis, Myles 15Xavier6' 2"Jr5.27-0.566.95
289Brunson, Jalen 1Villanova6' 2"Fr5.29-0.386.78
306Wideman, Tyler 4Butler6' 8"So4.20-1.386.69
347Ellenson, Henry 13Marquette6' 10"Fr3.39-1.956.44
352Martin, Kelan 30Butler6' 6"So4.59-0.706.39
357Zierden, Isaiah 21Creighton6' 3"Jr5.16-0.226.38
358Delgado, Angel 31Seton Hall6' 9"So3.00-2.256.35
452Cohen, Sandy 5Marquette6' 6"So3.93-0.805.73
790Wilson, Duane 1Marquette6' 2"So2.54-0.514.05
1015Johnson, JaJuan 23Marquette6' 5"Jr1.26-0.973.22
1129Cheatham, Haanif 25Marquette6' 5"Fr1.77-0.052.82
1547Carter, Traci 21Marquette6' 0Fr0.00-0.671.68
1585Ellenson, Wally 22Marquette6' 6"Jr0.24-0.371.62
1936Anim, Sacar 2Marquette6' 5"Fr0.020.371.01
1963Heldt, Matt 12Marquette6' 10"Fr0.000.381.00

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