"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Tuesday, January 26, 2016

What's wrong with Henry?


He is just a super talented freshman that shoots more than any other major conference freshman except Jamal Murray of Kentucky.

An MU Scoop question asked how one of the top 10 NBA prospects could only be the 328th most valuable player at Value Add.

The one thing you do fault Henry with is shooting too much even though he is missing. Henry takes 23% of all Marquette shots game in and game out (this even includes all the shots taken when he is on the bench). Only 11 other power conference players shoot as much as Henry:

12 biggest shootersYr%MinORtg%Poss%Shots%sh/gmseFG%teamName
Barber+ Anthony 12Jr94.8115.128.92927%44.4North Carolina St.
Moody+ Stefan 42Sr87.1113.732.531.427%51.9Mississippi
Carter+ Eli 3Sr76.894.632.834.526%46.8Boston College
Hield+ Buddy 24Sr83.7124.528.730.926%63.9Oklahoma
Murray+ Jamal 23Fr8510825.72925%50.8Kentucky
Brogdon+ Malcolm 15Sr82.1114.826.83025%50.4Virginia
Whitehead+ Isaiah 15So74.198.130.83324%41.8Seton Hall
Canty+ Kareem 1Jr85114.227.128.724%55.1Auburn
Bentil+ Ben 0So82.1113.727.228.323%49.8Providence
Taylor+ Brandon 10Sr79.8102.82829.123%49.6Penn St.
Punter+ Kevin 0Sr86.8117.727.626.523%55.7Tennessee
Ellenson+ Henry 13Fr79.799.22628.323%46.6Marquette

I last ran these before the St. John's game, so they are not quite up to date.

On the question of Value Add not adjusting for double teams - it really does. Players who shoot more because they are the go-to guy usually rank higher in Value Add unless they keep shooting even when it means taking shots that they miss a big percentage of the time - and with an eFG% of 46.6, I just believe Henry is shooting too much. Against Top 100 teams his Offensive Rating at www.kenpom.com is just 87.

His blocked shots (while mostly coming against weak teams) and his rebounding put him in the top 10% of all players - a great mark for a freshman. If you note, Jamal Murray of Kentucky is the only other freshman who shoots as much as Henry.

The other things holding Henry back is that MU has played so many terrible teams, and just like RPI, Value Add is held down if you are putting up a lot of your numbers against awful teams.

But as I point out in a response:

The NBA indicators we give NBA teams measure how good the player should be in the pros - and they are completely different than the college Value Add.

For example, Andre Drummond was ranked 268th in Value Add in College and Jae Crowder was 2nd. It was no comparison. When they met Crowder scored 29 points, had 12 rebounds and finished fouling Drummond out by dunking on him for a 3-point play. Drummond sat with 7 points and 4 rebounds.

Crowder was a MUCH better college player than Drummond - no question. That's why Crowder was a second team All-American and Drummond was nothing. But no one ever doubted that Drummond would be be the better than Crowder in the NBA and be a lottery pick.

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