"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Thursday, March 28, 2019

Value Add Basketball Game Showcases Markus' Ability to Create; S. Hauser's Efficiency

After beta testing the (free) Value Add Basketball Game to simulate each player's ability in just about every aspect of the game, we ran player cards for up to 10 players on all 353 teams as well as 32 All-Conference teams. The links to the game and players cards are below in case anyone wants to simulate a match-up (you did need two 6-sided dice and a 20-sided and 8-sided as well.

But first, last year after the season Value Add Projections showed Marquette as a 7-seed with Greg Elliott (projected 3.0), and with his loss Marquette dropped out of the top 32 to project as a first round NCAA loser. I haven't done a full projection yet, but just going with the projected Value Add's of every team's Value Add minus their seniors, Marquette is 10th in the country. That includes Zion Williamson's best ever 14.08 and all others who are really one-and-dones, so it's not an in depth but since the teams losing players early to the NBA are often the same teams who pick up new ones, it seems Marquette minus Elliott calculating as a 9-seed last year, and Marquette projecting as a 3-seed even before adding a projection for Elliott or McEwen for next year and our All-American Markus Howard being able to play shooting guard where opponents cannot badger him all game - I just don't see how fans can; 1) not be satisfied with this year as a whole, 2) not see the program as absolutely on pace under Wojo including making the tournament way ahead of schedule two years ago,par this year, and great expectations last year. Here are the top 10 teams in "non-senior" Value Add this year.

1. Virginia 47.49
2. Duke 47.12
3. Michigan 38.69
4. Kentucky 37.03
5. Gonzaga 36.64
6. Michigan St. 34.13
7. Maryland 33.97
8. Kansas 33.55
9. LSU 30.84
10. Marquette 30.54

The Value Add Basketball Game

To play your own game, click on the first 2 links for instructions and scoresheets, then pick two teams from any of the links below for player cards. You need only two 6-sided dice, a 20-sided die and an 8-sided die.

How to Play Value Add Basketball
Value Add Game Scoresheet
Pick 2 teams, click for Player Cards
All-Conference Player Cards
Abilene Christian to BYU
Cal Baptist to Duquesne
East Carolina to Green Bay
Hampton to LSU
Maine to Notre Dame
Oakland to Syracuse
TCU to Youngstown Player Cards

The Value Add Basketball Game simulates each players' ability to get the ball and get shots off,  rebound, hit from the line and inside and outside the arc, dish out great assists.

The first aspect of the game is the measurement of the ability to create shots and opportunities. While the game is an over simplification, it is accurate, it starts with a roll of an 8-sided dice and Markus Howard is one of the very elite players in the game that creates shots on three numbers, a 1, 6 or 8. Basically most players just get the ball if that die points to their position (1 = point guard creates, 2 = shooting guard creates, etc.), but the offense stalls on a 6, 7 or 8 unless you have a rate truly elite creator like Howard or with players with one extra number (7 for example) that is a very good creator, and one thing that does stand out is that noone else on MU was even the very good creator. Therefore if Markus is off the court, you can see why the offense stalls.

That being said, when he does create Sam Hauser has a virtually identical shooting/drawing foul card on a 1 to 20 roll. Both hit 3-pointers on rolls of 1-4, hit 2-pointers on 5 to 8, and Markus draws a shooting foul on one more number than Sam (9 to 11 vs 9 to 10). When they go to the line, both hit free throws on a roll of 1-18 since both round out to 90% from the line.

However, the player first must avoid a turning it over on a roll of 11-66 when the defender is trying to stop them, and while Markus is a slightly better than average with turnovers on just three numbers (51-53), Hauser is truly elite with  a turnover on only one roll, a 51. Keep in mind that the opposing defender can also steal the ball on some of their numbers. What really jumped out was Brandon Bailey, who not only never turns the ball over on his card but actually calculated a NEGATIVE three numbers which means I should really take away almost all the times his opponent steals the ball from him - but the game isn't that advanced.

Marquette's two top 30 players who are not seniors makes them truly elite net year. UVa is more impressive with three in the top 15, Gonzaga has two in the top 35 but likely loses one to the NBA, Duke has No. 1 and No 11 in Zion and RJ, but obviously the are both gone and the next most impressive is Texas Tech with two in the top 50.

While I hate to lose Sacar Anim's defense, being able to rotate in more offense in a year not having Joseph Chartouny as a strong defender was good but on offense not having him able to handle the speed of the competition (he actually has the highest turnover range in the game (44-56 are turnovers) and as much as we all love Matt Heldt but with two returning center all looks good. So the main change is returning players usually improve, and adding two point guards to let Marquette's superstars play the 2 and the 3 (shooting guard and small forward) gives Wojo the first team he has had that should win even a game in March Madness, and it definitely looks like a run is possible for the first time. Yes I'm in the Polyanna mode, but in this case I do not see why anyone is not.

Here are the Marquette playing cards in the game, but they really are easier to read on the google sheet in the game if you can click on that instead:

Hampton to LSU



Markus HowardCheck here when defending; 11-43 Roll20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette11 to 13: he steals ball1 to 4: 3-pt made
BE,5-1121 to 22: he blocks shot5 to 8: 2-pt made
Value Add: 9.2336 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided9 to 11: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time41 = forces miss & gets rebound12 to 16: missed three
55When he has ball check 44-6617 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)51 to 53: turns ball overOff Reb: 1-1/Def Reb: 1-2
S - 1, 6&864 to 66: he dunks (scores at the rim)1 to 18: free throw good
Sacar AnimCheck here when defending; 11-43 Roll20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette11 to 13: he steals ball1 to 2: 3-pt made
BE,6-521 to 23: he blocks shot3 to 8: 2-pt made
Value Add: 1.6536 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided9 to 10: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time41 = forces miss & gets rebound11 to 13: missed three
49When he has ball check 44-6614 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)51 to 52: turns ball overOff Reb: 1-1/Def Reb: 1-2
S - 264 to 66: he dunks1 to 11: free throw good
Sam HauserCheck here when defending; 11-43 Roll20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette11 to 13: he steals ball1 to 4: 3-pt made
BE,6-821 to 23: he blocks shot5 to 8: 2-pt made
Value Add: 8.7936 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided9 to 10: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time41 = forces miss & gets rebound11 to 17: missed three
53When he has ball check 44-6618 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)51 to 51: turns ball overOff Reb: 1-2/Def Reb: 1-4
S - 364 to 66: he dunks 1 to 18: free throw good
Joey HauserCheck here when defending; 11-43 Roll20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette11 to 13: he steals ball1 to 3: 3-pt made
BE,6-921 to 23: he blocks shot4 to 7: 2-pt made
Value Add: 3.4435 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided8 to 11: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time41 = forces miss & gets rebound12 to 15: missed three
48When he has ball check 44-6616 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)51 to 55: turns ball overOff Reb: 1-2/Def Reb: 1-3
S - 4Use this card on 44-66, Otherwise defender card1 to 16: free throw good
Theo JohnCheck here when defending; 11-43 Roll20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette11 to 16+: he steals ballNone: 3-pt made
BE,6-921 to 26+++: he blocks shot1 to 9: 2-pt made
Value Add: 2.7533 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided10 to 14: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time41 = forces miss & gets reboundNo missed 3s
32When he has ball check 44-6615 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)51 to 55: turns ball overOff Reb: 1-6/Def Reb: 1-3
S - 5Use this card on 44-66, Otherwise defender card1 to 10: free throw good






Joseph ChartounyCheck here when defending; 11-43 Roll20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette11 to 15: he steals ball1 to 3: 3-pt made
BE,6-321 to 22: he blocks shot4 to 8: 2-pt made
Value Add: 1.1836 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided9 to 10: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time41 = forces miss & gets rebound11 to 16: missed three
27When he has ball check 44-6617 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)44 to 56: turns ball overOff Reb: 1-1/Def Reb: 1-3
B - 164 to 66: he dunks 1 to 14: free throw good
Jamal CainCheck here when defending; 11-43 Roll20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette11 to 16: he steals ball1 to 3: 3-pt made
BE,6-721 to 25: he blocks shot4 to 9: 2-pt made
Value Add: 0.6435 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided10 to 11: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time41 = forces miss & gets rebound12 to 16: missed three
13When he has ball check 44-6617 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)46 to 56: turns ball overOff Reb: 1-4/Def Reb: 1-4
B - 264 to 66: he dunks 1 to 5: free throw good
Brendan BaileyCheck here when defending; 11-43 Roll20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette11 to 15: he steals ball1 to 2: 3-pt made
BE,6-821 to 26: he blocks shot3 to 6: 2-pt made
Value Add: 1.0936 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided7 to 8: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time41 = forces miss & gets rebound9 to 16: missed three
20When he has ball check 44-6617 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)Does not turns ball overOff Reb: 1-3/Def Reb: 1-1
B - 364 to 66: he dunks1 to 14: free throw good
Ed MorrowCheck here when defending; 11-43 Roll20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette11 to 16: he steals ballNone: 3-pt made
BE,6-721 to 26+: he blocks shot1 to 10: 2-pt made
Value Add: 2.7734 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided11 to 13: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time41 = forces miss & gets reboundNo missed 3s
22When he has ball check 44-6614 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)51 to 56: turns ball overOff Reb: 1-6/Def Reb: 1-4
B - 464 to 66: he dunks1 to 14: free throw good
Matt HeldtCheck here when defending; 11-43 Roll20-sided (if 11-66 not in a range)
Marquette11 to 16: he steals ballNone: 3-pt made
BE,6-1021 to 26+: he blocks shot1 to 7: 2-pt made
Value Add: 0.5333 to 36: commits shooting foul, check 20-sided8 to 12: he draws foul, take 2 FT
Playing Time41 = forces miss & gets reboundNo missed 3s
8When he has ball check 44-6617 to 20: missed two
Gets Ball (below)51 to 53: turns ball overOff Reb: 1-4/Def Reb: 1-2
B - 564 to 66: he dunks1 to 15: free throw good



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