Hayward could give MU 13th biggest NBA presence

Only 1% of Division I college basketball players make the jump to the NBA each year, so the fact that Lazar Hayward could become the 8th former Marquette player drawing an NBA paycheck next year puts MU in elite company.

Lazar has shot up to a projected 38th pick in Thursday's draft (www.nbadraft.net), and all 16 times a Marquette player has gone in the first two rounds, he has played in the NBA. In fact, Wesley Matthews was the 14th MU player NOT drafted in the first two rounds to still make the NBA, meaning Lazar could be MUs 31st NBA player, and he could join seven former MU players who were drawing an NBA paycheck last season.

As for the future, DJO emerged as a potential future NBA player when he was selected as one of the Top 15 college guards by Chris Paul’s camp, and 5-stars like Vander Blue have a pretty good record of making the NBA (Note to Vander, we are talking about the 2014 draft for you AFTER your 4-year career at Marquette):

Colleges with the most NBA players, coaches and projected 2010 draft picks
1 UNC 23
2 Duke 18
3 UCLA 17
4 Kentucky 16
5 UConn 13
6 Kansas 13
7 Arizona 12
8 Texas 11
9 Ohio State 11
10 Florida 10
11 Georgia Tech 10
12 Notre Dame 9
13 Marquette 8
14 Alabama 8
15 Oklahoma 8
16 LSU 7
17 Memphis 7
18 Wake Forest 7
19 Syracuse 7
20 Southern California 7

Ed Davis’ projected 10th pick gives the Tar Heels 23 former players, while Jon Scheyer's rather shaky projection as the 52nd of 60 picks (14 spots behind Lazar), gives Duke 18 former players to break a tie with UCLA for 2nd.

Kentucky’s five projected picks starting with John Wall shoots them up to 4th place, while Kansas and Texas move up the list as the only other two teams with more than two projected picks this year.

Obviously, these counts won’t necessarily be the same as the actual rosters at the beginning of the next season. We could have our hearts broken like last year’s draft with Lazar not being called, Doc Rivers (or coaches Jim Boylan or Maurice Lucas for that matter) could hang it up, and Steve Novak or Travis Diener could always be cut, though Wes Matthews and Dwyane Wade look like pretty sure things to be back.

However, this is true of any of the teams listed. There are very few sure bets to be back as a player or coach. And we can still hope for McNeal or James to follow Tom Copa's steps by going oversees for a couple of years before coming back to play in the NBA.

The important thing is that when players like Vander Blue get down to their short list, they are only going to consider programs that have shown they can produce NBA players. With Buzz appearing to be able to develop players like Wes Matthews, Jimmy Butler and DJO, there are really only seven schools that can argue that they clearly offer a better chance for a player to make the NBA (Arizona, Connecticut, Duke, Kansas, Kentucky, North Carolina, UCLA) .

Marquette is really on par with the other 13 schools on this list, and ahead of the other 327 Division I schools.

MU offers recruits the opportunity to play in front of the 10th largest crowds in the country, play for one of only 11 programs to make it to the NCAA tournament all of the last five years, and go to the only program in the country where they have this strong a chance to make the NBA AND don’t have to compete with football players for attention on campus. I mean really, why would any 4- or 5-star want to go anywhere else?

NBA futures for the 3 Amigos - An interview with Draft Express President Jonathan Givony

We had the pleasure of chatting yesterday with Jonathan Givony, the President of Draft Express, on the NBA prospects of the Three Amigos from Marquette. Jonathan was kind enough to to answer a few questions and give us his expert opinions on the topic.

Currently, Draft Express has Wesley Matthews, Dominic James, and Jerel McNeal projected in the second round of the 2009 NBA draft.


Question 1 - What goes into your evaluation process when looking at players and determining if they have a chance in the draft.

We attend a ton of games in person....we were just at the Big East tournament for example. After doing this for a number of years, we have a solid understanding of what the NBA is looking for, what type of talents, body profiles, athleticism, etc. that are needed to make an NBA team. We talk to the teams, to their scouts, we share information back and forth and factor all of this into our evaluations. Obviously different scouts have different opinions on the same players and their future prospects. At the end of the day, we use all of this information along with with what we see with our own eyes to make our evaluations.


Question 2 - What is your general opinion of the 2009 draft - weak or strong?

That's difficult to answer this far in advance of the draft. There are too many unknowns at this point in terms of who is coming out early or will stay for another year. However, there are 5 to 6 guys that if they come out could change the draft considerably, and it would have a potential effect on the three Marquette players because of where they are currently slotted in the second round.

Some others are down on this year's draft, but I think it's pretty strong and its deep if these additional players decide to declare. It's potentially missing a bit of star power at the top but there are quality players up and down. You might find an all-star in the group late in the first round. Ultimately you evaluate the draft after the players have played in the league.


Question 3 - Your 2009 mock draft has three Marquette players slotted for the second round. Who has the best chance to have a long term NBA career?

This may surprise some people, but I think it's Dominic James. He is a great athlete and has become a true point guard now. Certainly he is not a great shooter but I think that can be fixed with tweaking. His stroke needs to be dissected but I'm not as down on his shooting as others are because it can be fixed. He's a tremendous defender as well. Good point guards are hard to find and if he can stick, he can have a productive NBA career.

McNeal has a chance for a good NBA career and most experts would say of the three he has the best chance to stick the longest. I like his game a lot.

Wesley has good size but he does things that many other players do. He's at a disadvantage from that perspective because so many other players at his position have those same skill sets.


Question 4 - Do you think the Dominic James injury has hurt him at all with this draft prospects?

I don't think it will affect much. I wasn't able to see the game against Missouri but he will heal, he has time before the draft.


Question 5 - What is your opinion of players drafted in the 2nd round...are they better off being drafted or hoping for a free agency route?

GM's don't like to waste picks. Those are assets and GM's want the players they draft to make the team. It doesn't reflect well on them if they are drafting players that don't make it. So in my opinion it's better to be drafted then go the free agency route because you have a higher probability to make the team.

However, if you're not drafted it's not the end of the world for players because they can selectively target those teams that need their skill set. Of the three Marquette players, James might benefit the most if he's not drafted from the free agency route. James is a true point guard and teams need those skills.


Question 6 - In years past we have seen an influx of foreign players selected in the NBA draft. What are the foreign prospects this year?

This might be the first draft in a number of years where a true foreigner (Brandon Jennings excluded) isn't selected in the first round. It depends who from abroad decides to make themselves eligible. Overall, this draft appears that will skew more toward American players than in years past. The foreign crop isn't as strong.


Question 7 - Lazar Hayward will be a senior next year and should finish in the top 5 at Marquette in scoring and rebounds. What are his NBA prospects?

I like him as a player...he rebounds, he can post up and shoot with range, he defends adequately. We have a profile of him on Draft Express because he has possibilities. However, we do not have him the 2010 board right now. He needs to get better during the summer in some areas, especially putting the ball on the floor. His size dictates that he would be a small forward in the NBA and he doesn't have a high enough skill set right now in putting the ball on the floor (left hand is weak, dribbles in straight line), creating his own shot, etc. He has played the power forward spot at Marquette but his size dictates he would be a small forward in the NBA. He doesn't seem to have the quickness or ball handling ability to play that position in the NBA. We'll be monitoring him next year.


********************************
Jonathan has been scouting potential NBA players for years along with consulting for various professional teams. He is currently blogging through the NCAA tournament.

Lazar needs to be 3rd star for Elite 8/Final 4 Run

Historically, it takes three stars to make a Final Four run. For purposes of this article, I will define stars as players who will be drafted by the NBA after the season in question, or the following season.

This is the best predictor of which teams will make a deep NCAA run that I have found. When going through all Division I teams from the 2000-01 season to last year, there have been 46 teams with three or more future NBA draft choices and almost half of them – 46% - have made the Final Four. By contrast there have been 91 teams with just two future NBA draftees, and only 3 of them (3%) have made the Final Four. Texas and Kansas in – gulp – 2003, and LSU in 2006.

Granted, teams with MORE THAN 3 stars have been almost a sure lock for the Final Four, but even teams with exactly 3 future draftees have made the Elite Eight 48% of the time and the Final Four 35% of the time. The following is the breakdown:

Drafted players	Total Teams	Elite 8	%Elite 8	Final Four	% Final Four	NCAA Champions
4+	15	13	87%	10	67%	Du 01, Md 02, Fl 06-07, Ka 08
3	31	15	48%	11	35%	UCon 04, NC 05
2	91	13	14%	3	3%	None
1	283	13	5%	6	2%	Syr 03
0	2200	10	0.5%	2	0.1%	None

So the question now is, does Marquette belong in the “3” row, with an even shot at the Elite 8 and a better than 1-in-3 shot at the Final Four, or in the “2” row where an Elite 8 is a longshot?

With Jerel McNeal knocking on the door of the 1st round at No. 32 in the latest nbadraft.net mock draft, and Wes Matthews closing fast at No. 50, Marquette clearly has two stars ready for the big dance. The variable here is Lazar Hayward, who has been in and out of the 2010 mock draft at nbadraft.net. I believe the NCAA run hinges on whether or not MU gets the ball to Lazar and he plays at that NBA-draftee level down the stretch.

If Lazar is NBA draftee No. 3, then we belong in this group:

North Carolina
UConn
USC
LSU
Marquette
Oklahoma State
Syracuse
Tennessee
Texas
Wake Forest

This wouldn't be the list I'd draw up of the 10 teams most likely to make the Elite 8, but based on the strong correlation between draftees and the NCAA bracket, you may want to put a couple of these down for extra upset wins.

If not, and it’s just Wes and Jerel, then we belong in this group.

Arizona
Arizona St.
Duke
Gonzaga
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisville
Marquette
Ohio State
Pittsburgh
West Virginia

Certainly Oklahoma and other one-draftee teams can remember Syracuse’s 2003 run behind Carmelo Anthony as the only time a team with fewer than 2 NBA draftees made it all the way, but the odds are against them.

I’m looking forward to Lazar playing like the true superstar that he is for this big run.

Best case: Win the next 3 and MU wins Big East title, Worst Case 5th place

I was just looking back at some of the preseason magazines that had MU finishing 7th in the conference this year, and who would have thought that as of February 22 we could make the following two statements?:

1. If MU wins its next three games, it would lock up the Big East regular season title no what happens in any other game
2. After Nova’s win over Syracuse, the worst case scenario would now be a 5th place finish in the Big East.

Not that any of this has stopped the skeptics. Yesterday www.kenpom.com predicted Georgetown by 5, and Las Vegas predicted Georgetown by 2 ½, but when asked after the game which Big East team could make an NCAA run, ESPN's Adrian Branch said Marquette, admitting he had underestimated them before watching the Georgetown game.

Everyone has underestimated this team all year, and now the only question is, “BY HOW MUCH did everyone underestimate the team that now has three projected NBA draft picks and has beaten more ranked teams than anyone but UConn?”

ESPN’s Doug Gottlieb has been the harshest, calling MU the most overrated team in the US when we hit #8 in the polls, a statement that yesterday he only offered to recant if MU went 4-1 during this final gauntlet. I pointed out to him on a comment on his blog that this means he is saying MU would have to win two of three against teams ranked HIGHER THAN THE 8th RANKED SPOT he says we don’t deserve (expect Monday’s rankings to show UConn at #2, Louisville at #6 and Pitt at #1). If MU were the 8th best team in the land they would not be expected to beat MOST of the teams ranked HIGHER THAN 8th, particularly with two of three games on the road. I’m hoping Gottlieb will concede that winning one of these three games would prove MU belonged in the Top 8 nationally and would thus deserve a No. 2 seed for the Big Dance.

Now that MU is down to a 5-team race in the Big East, here are the records that www.kenpom.com projects in Big East play, along with the percent chance each team has of winning each game:

1. Pitt 15-3 (at Pr 84%, at SH 84%, MU 83%, UConn 66% - wins tie-breaker with UConn due to projected sweep)
2. UConn 15-3 (at MU 57%, ND 88%, at Pitt 34%)
3. Louisville 14-4 (at Gtown 43%, MU 75%, SH 92%, at WV 31% - wins tie-breaker with projected home win against MU)
4. MARQUETTE 14-4 (UConn 43%, at Lville 25%, at Pitt 17%, Syr 74%)
5. Villanova 13-5 (at DeP 93%, Gtown 65%, at ND 46%, Prov 89%)

In short, we are about to start a run that would be every bit as tough as an Elite 8 run. At first glance, the percentages don’t look good, but under the category of “the other team has problems too” I think MU has a shot at all three games:

Can UConn handle MUs pressure now that Dyson is gone? Obviously we have a problem if Hasheem Thabeet and the tallest team in the country get the ball three feet from the basket, but the Three Amigos have overcome huge height disadvantageous in two of three matchups against UConn the past three years by pressuring opposing guards and with Dyson gone, MU can win this game 25 feet from the basket.

Can Louisville stop MU by packing under the basket to prevent drives and conceding the 3-point shot like last year? I don’t think so. Last year Wes, Jerel and Lazar combined for only 7.8 three-point attempts a game and hit 36% of them. This year the trio is putting up 11.5 per game and hitting 41% of them even from the deeper arc.

Will Pitt’s slow pace play into MUs hands? Four of the top 12 teams in the Big East play at a slow pace – 66.7 possessions per game or less. So far MU has EXCELLED in every game against one of these slow-paced teams. MU has actually SLOWED the pace even further against these teams (Cincy, Gtown twice & WVU). The results? Only 63 possessions per game for a 4-0 record with an average win of 83-64! Pitt is the last team MU plays at this pace, and Pitt rarely forces turnovers while MU rarely gives it up.

So MU really does have a great chance to make some more history. MU is 3-23 all-time against Top 3 teams, so this is a great chance to add a 4th or even 5th win against Top 3 teams in the closing days of the season. And unlike the tourney, we have nothing to lose. If MU falls short in any or all of these potentially historic games, they will live to battle another day.