"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, March 06, 2011

MUs final RPI and who to root for in EVERY conference tourney

The new www.rpiforecast.com is updated through the Seton Hall loss, so at this point a quick rundown of the only two things that can affect a bid to MU - what we do in the Big East Tournament and what other teams do in their tournaments.

First, after the Seton Hall loss, our final RPI cold be anywhere from 85th to 22nd, based on how we do:

Final RPILose to Providence – 85th – NIT
Beat Providence, lose to WVU – 67th – NCAA unless destroyed by WVU
Beat Providence & WVU, lose to Lville – 53rd – Top 8 seed
Beat Prov, WVU, Lville, lose ND – 41st – high seed
Beat Prov, WVU, Lville, ND, lose to Pitt – 32nd
Beat Prov, WVU, Lville, ND & Pitt – 22nd


Second, my projection of an NCAA bid with just one win assumes two or three spoilers in other tournaments. Most tournaments don't matter because only one team goes from them, but here are is a list of all tournaments and who we want to root for in certain ones. If 5 or 6 spoilers win their tournaments, then MUs bid could be in double with just the Providence win. If there are no spoilers at all, we literally could get in the tournament even losing to Providence.

ConferenceRoot forChance of SpoilerMost likely spoiler
A10Xavier, Temple45%Richmond, Dayton
ACCDuke, UNC or at least Va Tech, Clemson23%BC, Flo State
AEDoesn't matter0% 
ASunDoesn't matter0% 
B10OSU, Purdue, Wisc, Illinois or at least Mich or Mich Stateless than10%Minn, PSU, NW
B12Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Texas A&M, K-State or at least Nebraska or Coloradoless than10%OK State, Baylor
BEMU - otherwise one of top 10 teamsless than10%Seton Hall
BSkyDoesn't matter0% 
BSthDoesn't matter0% 
BWDoesn't matter0% 
CAAODU, GMUless than20%VCU, Drexel
CUSAUAB or at least Memphis, Central Flo or UTEP88%Southern Miss
HorzButler, but may not matterless than10%Cleveland St., UWM, Valp
IvyDoesn't matter0% 
MAACDoesn't matter0% 
MACDoesn't matter0% 
MEACDoesn't matter0% 
MVCDoesn't matter0% 
MWCBYU, SD State, UNLV or at least New Mexicoless than10%Colorado State
NECDoesn't matter0% 
OVCDoesn't matter0% 
P10Arizona, Washington or UCLA21%Wash St. or USC
PatDoesn't matter0% 
SBDoesn't matter0% 
SCDoesn't matter0% 
SECFlorida, Kentucky, Vandy, Tenn or at least Georgialess than10%Mississippi, Alabama, Arkansas
SlndDoesn't matter0% 
SumDoesn't matter0% 
SWACDoesn't matter0% 
WACUtah State26%Hawaii or Boise State
WCCSt. Mary's or Gonzagaless than10%Portland

1 comment:

Joe said...

An avid Notre Dame fan here. Props to you for putting so much work into this blog.

I think your analysis of the bubble is a little off. Florida State is in better shape than both Clemson and Va Tech, so I wouldn't consider them much of a spoiler. Washington is also in a ton of trouble, they play WSU in the Pac 10 tourney in what may be an elimination game. Southern Miss is also much closer to the bubble than Central Florida.

Keep up the good work and Notre Dame will still figure out ways to lose in Milwaukee.