"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Extra Chapter for Ultimate Hoops Guide; Stats and Ratings for All MU players 2009-2012 (Acker to J. Wilson)

Here are the stats on players who finished their careers after the Ultimate Hoops Guide: Marquette University was published.  As I joked in my earlier post today, I could not simply answer the challenge to name MUs all-time starting 5 without going back and running the numbers from the past four years to make sure I knew exactly where Jerel McNeal, Jae Crowder and everyone else ranked.

For those of you who didn't get the book, the stats listed below calculate into a “Wins Credit or WC” stat that estimates how many wins the player was worth to him team that year, with Dwyane Wade 2003 being the best in MU history at 9.6, and Larry Byrd 1979 being the greatest in history at 15.9.  The three figures in parenthesis sum up the career, with;

1.       DOMINANCE (0 to 15) The first number indicating how dominant the player was judged to be based on All-American and NBA selections with Chones, Kojis, Lee, Lucas and Wade the perfect 15s.

2.       IMPACT (0 to 10) The second number is the impact on the program, with Bo Ellis being the only perfect 10 due to being one of the top 2 players on two Final Four teams.

3.       STATS (Wade 32 and Larry Bird a perfect 50 for 1979 season) The statistical rating is Win Credits adjusted for Games Played and combining all seasons.

The total of the three numbers is a player’s career ranking, with a 31 or higher indicating one of the best 50 players in MU history, and a 21 or higher indicating one of the best 100 players of the 685 MU players for whom I have records:

(each player's stats appear BELOW the comments on his MU career)

Maurice Acker (4+4+7=15, 142nd)
In June 2009 it appeared Mo Acker had ended his MU career with a few nice games filling in for the injured Dominic James.  Instead, he changed his mind and came back to have a great season that generated an additional 2.6 wins for MU, the difference between making the NCAA tournament and watching from home.


Juan Anderson (2+2+0=4)
A big prospect out of high school, who hopefully adapts after a weak freshman season.


Vander Blue (5+5+10=20, 107th)
Even repeating his season from last year would put him in the top 100 players of all time, but with just a little offense to add to his steals and rebounds, MUs first 5-star recruit could live up to his potential.


Dwight Burke (7+3+1=11)
Outside of consecutive 100-rebound seasons, his stats are non-existence.  However, his ability to be a productive foreign pro player (“7” dominance rating) indicates the important he had to give MU some muscle during the Three Amigos era.  


Jimmy Butler (10+7+19=36, 29th)
The more advanced Value Add shows he was actually the 5th move valuable player in the country his junior year, and that was reflected in his 1st round selection and ensuring production for the Bulls.  Even though Win Credits undervalues him due to not using all of the stats, he ranks as the 29th best player in MU history.


Dwight Buycks (6+8+8=19, 115th)
If Buycks eventually makes the NBA, it would break him into the top 100 of all-time.  While playing out of position at the point, he still added 2.8 wins his senior year to help MU make the tournament and the Sweet 16.


Junior Cadougan (4+5+8=17, 129th)
It’s still painful to look at the 4-point season that will keep Junior from coming back in 2014, but his strong 2012 was worth 2.7 wins that helped MU repeat as a Sweet 16 team.  Junior has to get some credit for Crowder and DJO having such great seasons.


Jae Crowder (14+8+25=47, 9th)
Going through the three rankings that make up the player ratings from the Ultimate Hoops Guide: Marquette University:
1.       Dominance (14 of 15) -  his selection as 2nd team AP All-American and subsequent selection near the top of the 2nd round and ability to make the Dallas Mavericks,
2.       Impact (8 of 10) - being the top player on a Sweet 16,
3.       Stats (25, Wade highest at 32) - 8.3 Win Credits in 2012 was the 2nd best total, though still way behind Wade’s 9.6 Win Credits for the 2003 season and nowhere near the greatest season ever played (Larry Byrd 15.9 Win Credits in 1979).  Adjusted for games played the top 10 seasons played in MU history in order are; Wade 2003, Thompson 1968, Ellis 1975, Chones 1971, Lee 1978, Wade 2008, Thompson 1969, Crowder 2012, Meminger 1971 and McNeil 1973. However, if we had the stats for Value Add for past seasons, I believe we would see that Crowder’s season was actually the 2nd best of all time behind only Wade 2003, though I believe Jim Chones would have rated higher during 1972 if he had not left for the ABA during the season.  After adding a very strong 2011 season, his Statistical Rating is 25, tied with Larry McNeil for the 8th best statistical career in MU history, though well behind Wade’s all-time MU high of 32, and Byrd has the only perfect 50 of all time.
Combining the three ratings gives Crowder a total rating of 47, making him the 9th greatest player in MU history, though adjusted for Big East competition and Value Add, I believe he is even higher.


David Cubillan (4+4+5=13, 181st)
Like Acker, who would believe that Cubillan could have formed a starting backcourt that would lead MU to the NCAA in a year that should have been pure rebuilding.  His 3-point shooting transformed the team and he was worth 1.6 wins to a team that would not have made the tournament without them.


Robert Frozena (1+1+0=2)
The crowd favorite walk-on.


Joseph Fulce (3+3+1=7)
Like Burke, a player whose contributions were not reflected so much in the stats, but certainly the flashes of brilliance teased MU fans about how good he might have been without the injuries to both knees.


Davante Gardner (3+5+6=14, 158th)
A great sophomore campaign was sidetracked by a leg injury that made him miss games and then play at well under 100%, but even with that Value Add projects Gardner as MUs best player for 2013.  If he stays healthy has lost enough weight to be an average defensive player, Gardner could be a top 100 player of the 4000 in the country.


Lazar Hayward (11+7+19=37, 37th)
After putting up 1.7 and 4.6 Win Credits in the two years in the book, Hayward capped a brilliant career with consecutive 6-win seasons.  Going into his senior season, no one could have predicted he would lead MU to the NCAA or become a 1st round draft pick, but no one is more deserving.  While the stats give a little more credit to the Three Amigos and Jimmy Butler based purely on stats and leaves Hayward as the 37th best player in MU history, few have matched what he accomplished subjectively.


Patrick Hazel (2+2+0=4)
While the Big East did prove too physical for Patrick, he did hit over 70% of his field goals his freshman year, and continued to hit over 50% in his two years after transferring to Boston University.  He was also in the top 2% of all shot blockers in the country in top 7% of all offensive rebounders in each of those two years, helping them to an 11-game win streak and American East title before losing to Kansas in the 2011 NCAA tournament.


Dominic James (9+8+21=38, 23rd)
While a steady fall off every season ended tragically with the broken foot probably costing MU a good NCAA run and perhaps preventing him from making the NBA, as a whole he was the 23rd best player in the history of a very storied program.  Thanks for the memories of many dominant games.


Darius Johnson-Odom (10+7+19=36, 28th)
One of the most exciting players to ever put on a MU uniform was also the 28th best, and improved in every category listed above except blocked shots every year.  His 5.9 Win Credits and top 100 Value Add ranking of all players in the country will always make him one of the greatest duos in MU history as well as in the country in 2012.  However, the memories of the feather touch 3-pointer sending MU to the Sweet 16 versus Syracuse and the highlight dunks will be even more special than the stats.


Jamail Jones (2+2+0=4)
We hope for a great career at Florida Gulf Coast.


Wesley Matthews (12+7+21=40, 21st)
Doc Rivers and Wesley Matthews are Exhibits A and B in why I believe you have to give some weight to how good MU players are ultimately judged by NBA scouts and coaches.  While Matthews stats are not quite as strong as they would have been if he didn’t have to play virtually entire games grinding against opposing big me, the ability sometimes comes out more at the next level when he can show his ability 1-on-1 as a guard.  Same with Doc, whose stats are not that great because college teams sagged in a zone with no shot clock because they couldn't match up with him - and it turned out neither could most NBA players.  Matthews explosion in the NBA results in the dominance rating of “12,” as he is on course to be one of the top 5 NBA scorers in the history of MU.


Jeronne Maymon (3+1+0=4)
While it was a sad story at Marquette, he is not considered a possible future NBA player who could lead Tennessee to a big year next year.


Todd Mayo (3+4+16 = 13, 178th)
After one of the best freshmen campaigns MU has seen, he certainly could explode next year with just a little more consistency.  One of the many players on a balanced 2013 that could break out, and already one of the top 200 players in MU history just based on last year.


Yous Mbao (1+1+0=2)
While the 7-foot-2 Mbao may be best known for going several months at MU without scoring a point IN PRACTICE, let the record show that he broke double digits at Marshall in 2012 with 11 points for the year.  He also blocked 12.1% of all opponents shots while on the floor, which would have ranked 12th in the country if he had played more than 6 minutes a game.  Transfers can be good for school and player, and like Hazel, glad he found a home.


Jerel McNeal (10+8+27=45, 12th)
Originally it appeared he would rank 9th all-time based on projections that he would be drafted and make the NBA, but when neither happened his dominance rating dropped slightly to “10” and he slid slightly to rank as the 12th best player in MU history.  The brutal schedule that he, Matthews, James and Hayward played through at the height of the Big East is not measured by Win Credits, and in fairness you have to move all of them up subjectively and say that McNeal was one of the greatest 10 players ever at MU – even if my formulas do not quite show it.


Chris Otule (4+4+5=13, 175th)
While he will always be a bit of an offensive liability, MU has plenty of scoring and his defensive dominance altering opponents shots at the rim and ability to box out two players a time to let teammates get rebounds cannot be measured.  He already ranks as the 175th best player in MU history despite the season ending injuries, and the biggest puzzle for next year is how you balance minutes between him as one of the most dominant defensive players in the league versus one of the most dominant offensive players in the league (Gardner).


Reggie Smith (1+1+0=2)
He may have transferred from a team that could make an Elite 8 run during his career to another team that could do the same in UNLV.  Would have loved to see how many steals he might have accumulated.


Erik Williams (1+1+0=2)
It was great to have him end his career with a big basket to open the 2nd half win over Xavier in the NCAA, and we hope the surgery was successful and he is great at Houston Baptist.


Derrick Wilson (1+2+0=3)
I did not get to see MU player when Tony Miller was dominating, but as another guy who could have played football Wilson has at least shown he will physically dominant opposing guards for rebounds and steals.


Jamil Wilson (5+5+8=18, 121st)
In just one year he became the 121st greatest player in MU history, but even more showed signs of being a potentially dominating player who could take over with Crowder and DJO gone.  The only weakness was his rebounding, but he was having to player as an undersized center, so back in position he could turn into one of the all-time greats.


No comments: