"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Monday, August 06, 2012

Lockett could be 1 of only 3 transfers to be strong BCS starters without sitting out a year

In sorting Jeff Goodman's incredible work to track the 445 and counting transfers for CBS Sports, I focused on those that should be eligible to play in 2013.  Our updates to www.valueaddbasketball.com are still being made, but Trent Lockett is one of only 16 transfers who should be eligible to play this coming season AND are projected to make an impact.

The only two players who project to have a Value Add of higher than 3%, the point at which a player would typically be a good starter for a BCS team, are Julius Mays and Mark Lyons, so the rich get richer.  Their additions, respectively, pushed Kentucky from 32nd to 18th (of course they will go higher) and Arizona from 21st to 12th.

Trent Lockett has the 6th best projection of any immediate transfer for the year, and his 1.29% projected impact on Marquette's final scores improves the team projection from 25th to 19th in the Value Add rankings for next year.  The news could be even better.  The hope has been that Lockett was held down by playing for one of the worst BCS teams around last year - Arizona State - and that if we instead based his projection on his sophomore year of 2.59%, then he would actually push Marquette all the way up to the 16th best team in the country - so a potentially great addition and quite possible he could be one of only three players to transfer without sitting out and be a legit starter with his new team immediately.  Here are the 16 transfers who should be impact players without sitting out a year:

Rnk2012 TRANSFER LISTNew SchoolValue Add
1Julius Mays, 6-3, G, Jr., Wright State (will graduate) KENTUCKY3.78
2Mark Lyons, 6-0, G, Jr., Xavier (will likely graduate) ARIZONA 3.54
3&Trent Lockett (if duplicates his sophomore season)MARQUETTE2.59
3R.J. Evans, 6-3, G, Sr., Holy Cross (will graduate) CONNECTICUT1.76
4Sam McLaurin, 6-8, F, Jr., Coastal Carolina (will graduate) ILLINOIS 1.6
5Devon White, 6-8, F, Jr., La Salle (will graduate) NIAGARA1.44
6Trent Lockett, 6-4, SG, Jr., Arizona State (will likely play ASAP) MARQUETTE1.29
7Kyle Smythe, 6-4, G Jr., Iona (will graduate) SETON HALL1.21
8Kauri Black, 6-7, F, Jr., Northeastern (will graduate) TULSA1.03
9Brendan Lane, 6-9, PF, Jr., UCLA (one year left and can play ASAP) PEPPERDINE1.01
10John Hart, 6-2, G, Jr., Purdue (will graduate) IUPUI0.55
11Alwayne Bigby, 6-5, G, Soph., Northeastern (will graduate)Available0.5
12Matt Humphrey, 6-5, G, Jr., Boston College (will graduate) WEST VIRGINIA0.5
13Renaldo Woolridge, 6-9, F, Sr., Tennessee (will graduate) SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA0.45
14Kore White, 6-8, F, Jr., Florida Atlantic (will graduate) SOUTH FLORIDA0.3
15Logan Aronhalt, 6-3, G, Jr., Albany (will graduate) MARYLAND0.25
16Josh Lepley, 6-9, F, Jr., Northern Arizona (will graduate)Available0.13

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