"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Updated 2019 Team and Player Projections With Kentucky, Oklahoma, Florida St. and Memphis signings

As we track players, one fact stands out - Joe Cremo projects as the third most valuable player available and the best hope for a Sweet 16 next year. More on that later.

Harry Froling makes the list of players lost due to signing a pro agent, but the 1.31 Value Add lost was factored into Marquette's 27th best 39.02 projected team Value Add at www.valueaddbasketball.com and on the projected 2019 players you can edit. Villanova's 13.50 point edge over everyone else could withstand the loss of Mikal Bridges (top projected 2019 Value Add at 11.06) but not both him and Jalen Brunson (No. 3 projected at 10.44).

Please keep the updates coming on the google sheet of all projected 2019 players. In addition to 100+ corrections, cleanup of a few duplicates, etc., Kentucky, Oklahoma, Florida State and Memphis had big signings to help propel them in the team projections below. EJ Montgomery picking Kentucky over Duke helps Kentucky maintain second place for Villanova now as they wait for additional players to decide on the NBA.


Rank ProjProjected 2019 PlayersHtClassTeam GainedProj. VANotes
94EJ Montgomery6-foot-10FrKentucky6.80247 Ranked 12, PF, signed April 9
584Miles Reynolds #36-foot-2SrOklahoma3.62Sr. transfer from Pacific, SG
1126David Nichols #136-foot-0SrFlorida St.2.17Sr. transfer from Albany, PG
1292Alex Lomax5-foot-11FrMemphis1.82247 Ranked 144, PG, signed April 4

Of course, this included Kentucky losing two more players since the original update, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Kevin Knox signing with agents at a cost of almost 16 Value Add points. Four other Kentucky players worth another 21.39 points are in the system as considering the NBA but still potentially staying at Kentucky; PJ Washington with a 5.65 Value Add, Hamidou Diallo 5.64, Jarred Vanderbilt 5.17 and Wenyen Gabriel 4.93.


Players signing agentsHtClassTeam LostProj. VANotes
Deandre Ayton #137-foot-1SoArizona9.98Signed agent/Pro
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #226-foot-6FrKentucky9.16Signed agent/Pro
Gary Trent #26-foot-6FrDuke7.43Signed agent/Pro
Robert Williams #446-foot-10SoTexas A&M6.91Signed agent/Pro
Kevin Knox #56-foot-9FrKentucky6.77Signed agent/Pro
Drew Eubanks #126-foot-10SrOregon6.09Signed agent/Pro
Leron Black #126-foot-7SrIllinois5.43Signed agent/Pro
Bruce Brown #116-foot-5SoMiami5.39Signed agent/Pro
Lagerald Vick #26-foot-5SrKansas5.28Signed agent/Pro
Deng Adel #226-foot-7JrLouisville5.05Signed agent/Pro
Corey Sanders #36-foot-2SrRutgers4.06Signed agent/Pro
Harry Froling 136-foot-11SoMarquette1.31Signed agent/Pro
Terry Larrier #226-foot-8SrConnecticut0.86Signed agent/Pro

As you can see, eight of the top 25 projected players for next season could leave to go pro but have not signed agents. If a player signs with an agent we take him out of the database, but if they express an interest in the NBA and could be drafted then we flag them in the database with the "/could go NBA" in the Value Add Basketball database and in the "Considering NBA" 2nd team column below. If someone announces they are exploring the NBA but it does not appear they will be drafted, we assume for now they will return and do not flag them.


Projected RankProjected 2019 PlayersHtClass2019 TeamProj. Value Add
1Mikal Bridges #256-foot-7JrVillanova /could go NBA11.06
2Keita Bates-Diop #336-foot-7JrOhio St. /could go NBA10.66
3Jalen Brunson #16-foot-2JrVillanova /could go NBA10.44
4Juwan Morgan #136-foot-7SrIndiana10.07
5Dean Wade #326-foot-10SrKansas St.9.92
6John Konchar #556-foot-5SrFort Wayne9.57
7Dylan Windler #36-foot-7SrBelmont9.54
8James Thompson #26-foot-10SrEastern Michigan9.44
9Luke Maye #326-foot-8SrNorth Carolina9.18
11RJ Barrett6-foot-7FrDuke9
12Carsen Edwards #36-foot-1SoPurdue /could go NBA8.94
13Zhaire Smith #26-foot-5FrTexas Tech /could go NBA8.87
14Anthony Cowan #16-foot-0JrMaryland8.86
15Cameron Reddish6-foot-7FrDuke8.8
16Ethan Happ #226-foot-10SrWisconsin /could go NBA8.76
17Michael Oguine #06-foot-2SrMontana8.6
18Zion Williamson6-foot-6FrDuke8.6
19Moe Wagner #136-foot-11JrMichigan8.58
20Reid Travis #226-foot-8SrStanford8.54
21Cassius Winston #56-foot-0JrMichigan St.8.53
22Jerome Robinson #16-foot-5JrBoston College /could go NBA8.53
23Mike Daum #246-foot-9SrSouth Dakota St.8.46
24Tyler Davis #346-foot-10SrTexas A&M /could go NBA8.43
25Bol Bol7-foot-1FrOregon8.4

As you can see below, if no one left Villanova their projected Value Add would be 72.30, but if everyone considering the NBA left they would drop 29.34 to a 42.96. This, of course, plays well for Marquette and other teams with no one considering the NBA because they can only move up the list with NBA departures from others. Of course, the database will continue to adjust for other signings and departures - and please remember you must put something in column A if you have an update or catch a mistake. I review each record with a comment and then update www.valueaddbasketball.com as well. Here are where the 351 teams rank, BUT it really doesn't work well after the top 100 because in lower ranked conferences Value Add will capture the one player who could play at a high major level and value him more than three or four excellent lower conference players who could not competed in the power conferences.


RnkTeamProj Value AddConsidering NBAIf Lose All
1Villanova72.3029.3442.96
2Kentucky58.8021.3937.41
3Auburn53.796.0047.79
4Oregon53.5653.56
5North Carolina48.7848.78
6Tennessee48.3912.8735.52
7Duke48.2348.23
8Nevada47.5222.3725.15
9Gonzaga45.9913.1732.82
10Mississippi St.45.8521.9123.94
11Maryland45.7014.0231.68
12Virginia45.646.5539.09
13Syracuse45.5015.3930.11
14UCLA45.2310.1035.12
15LSU44.1544.15
16North Carolina St.42.6742.67
17Ohio St.41.9510.6631.29
18Virginia Tech41.524.2537.27
19Michigan St.41.446.6434.80
20Michigan40.9440.94
21Alabama40.8515.1425.71
22Miami FL40.486.5333.95
23Florida39.946.6133.33
24USC39.6739.67
25Texas39.405.0334.37
26Montana39.1339.13
27Marquette39.0239.02
28Kansas38.887.0331.85
29Kansas St.38.525.8432.68
30Florida St.38.1938.19
31Arizona St.38.0238.02
32Iowa36.888.3928.49
33TCU36.7536.75
34Northeastern36.7436.74
35Boston College36.4014.6721.73
36Notre Dame36.1536.15
37Iowa St.35.923.8332.09
38Indiana35.6435.64
39Xavier35.3235.32
40BYU35.287.6527.63
41Providence34.9734.97
42San Diego St.34.938.0226.91
43Fresno St.34.905.6329.27
44Texas Tech34.908.8726.03
45Northwestern34.8434.84
46Davidson34.8134.81
47Houston34.6934.69
48St. John's34.627.8126.81
49Washington34.3313.3021.03
50Wake Forest34.3234.32
51Vanderbilt34.1234.12
52Butler34.1134.11
53West Virginia33.867.2926.57
54South Dakota St.33.8433.84
55Purdue33.668.9424.72
56Clemson33.4413.2120.23
57Texas A&M33.3213.9719.35
58Creighton32.8032.80
59Loyola Chicago32.7332.73
60Georgetown32.5932.59
61Nebraska32.2513.7718.48
62Mississippi31.813.7828.03
63Missouri31.676.9324.74
64Arizona31.5031.50
65Penn St.31.317.1924.12
66Baylor31.0731.07
67Dayton30.753.7726.98
68Oklahoma St.30.4930.49
69Stanford30.2430.24
70SMU29.939.7920.14
71Marshall29.697.7921.90
72Minnesota29.5829.58
73Buffalo29.3929.39
74Oklahoma29.1629.16
75Cincinnati29.0629.06
76UNC Greensboro29.0429.04
77San Diego28.9728.97
78Georgia Tech28.446.5621.88
79Wisconsin28.218.7619.45
80Georgia St.28.054.5723.48
81New Mexico28.0128.01
82Rhode Island27.9727.97
83Belmont27.9127.91
84Arkansas27.8927.89
85Wofford27.716.9720.74
86Temple27.6927.69
87Louisville27.5627.56
88St. Bonaventure27.3127.31
89Connecticut27.0627.06
90Northern Kentucky27.0327.03
91Illinois26.9826.98
92Murray St.26.8826.88
93Lipscomb26.8126.81
94Rider26.3926.39
95UC Davis26.3626.36
96Louisiana Lafayette26.3426.34
97Richmond26.3026.30
98Toledo26.2726.27
99Oregon St.26.2526.25
100Northern Iowa26.1826.18
101Ball St.26.1426.14
102Liberty26.1326.13
103Furman26.1226.12
104Southern Illinois26.0426.04
105Northern Colorado25.9925.99
106North Texas25.9925.99
107Akron25.7225.72
108South Carolina25.7125.71
109Georgia Southern25.6125.61
110Memphis25.5925.59
111Saint Mary's25.4325.43
112Georgia25.3625.36
113Saint Louis25.3625.36
114Middle Tennessee25.3525.35
115Canisius25.1225.12
116Fort Wayne24.9924.99
117Rutgers24.9124.91
118New Mexico St.24.8924.89
119Jacksonville St.24.8724.87
120Hofstra24.746.3518.39
121Saint Joseph's24.7024.70
122Harvard24.6824.68
123Utah St.24.6224.62
124South Dakota24.4524.45
125DePaul24.416.5017.91
126Old Dominion24.4024.40
127Tulsa24.3924.39
128Eastern Michigan24.3324.33
129Colorado24.2124.21
130Radford24.2124.21
131UC Irvine24.1524.15
132UCF24.0124.01
133Vermont24.0124.01
134Illinois St.23.9123.91
135Stephen F. Austin23.8223.82
136Cornell23.796.4717.32
137Tulane23.786.3517.43
138Valparaiso23.4823.48
139Pacific23.3623.36
140Weber St.23.3123.31
141Utah Valley23.3023.30
142Western Kentucky23.2323.23
143Southern Miss23.2023.20
144Idaho St.23.1123.11
145UTSA23.0023.00
146Austin Peay22.7122.71
147St. Francis PA22.7122.71
148Campbell22.685.6617.02
149Wright St.22.5722.57
150College of Charleston22.4822.48
151Seton Hall22.4822.48
152Iona22.4522.45
153William & Mary22.3822.38
154Eastern Washington22.3522.35
155Ohio22.3122.31
156Bradley22.2922.29
157Massachusetts22.1022.10
158Winthrop22.0922.09
159Central Michigan22.0922.09
160Indiana St.22.0122.01
161Cal St. Fullerton21.9721.97
162Southeast Missouri St.21.6821.68
163Yale21.6521.65
164Illinois Chicago21.4821.48
165San Francisco21.2221.22
166UAB21.1021.10
167Columbia21.0821.08
168Towson20.9820.98
169Princeton20.9720.97
170James Madison20.8320.83
171Northern Illinois20.805.8714.93
172Missouri St.20.7020.70
173Grand Canyon20.6420.64
174Loyola Marymount20.6120.61
175UNLV20.6020.60
176Pepperdine20.5020.50
177VCU20.3620.36
178Wyoming20.365.4214.94
179Charleston Southern20.3520.35
180East Tennessee St.20.2920.29
181Penn20.2820.28
182Hartford20.0520.05
183Kent St.20.0420.04
184Lehigh19.9419.94
185UT Arlington19.7619.76
186Evansville19.7019.70
187La Salle19.6119.61
188North Florida19.5019.50
189Louisiana Tech19.4619.46
190UNC Asheville19.4519.45
191Florida Gulf Coast19.373.9915.38
192Western Michigan19.2819.28
193South Alabama19.2319.23
194Wichita St.19.2119.21
195George Mason19.1319.13
196Troy19.1319.13
197Colorado St.19.1019.10
198NJIT18.9618.96
199Seattle18.8218.82
200Duquesne18.5918.59
201Louisiana Monroe18.5318.53
202Texas Southern18.5018.50
203Coastal Carolina18.3818.38
204UNC Wilmington18.2018.20
205Portland St.18.1818.18
206Southeastern Louisiana18.1718.17
207Milwaukee18.1018.10
208Colgate17.9717.97
209Lamar17.9017.90
210Utah17.9017.90
211Washington St.17.845.4312.41
212Montana St.17.8217.82
213Miami OH17.7617.76
214Monmouth17.6117.61
215Wagner17.4817.48
216Idaho17.2417.24
217Drexel17.2117.21
218FIU17.1717.17
219Fairleigh Dickinson17.1017.10
220North Dakota17.1017.10
221Bowling Green17.073.6713.40
222California17.0117.01
223Nebraska Omaha16.9016.90
224Elon16.8916.89
225Saint Peter's16.8616.86
226UC Santa Barbara16.6616.66
227Delaware16.4716.47
228Boston University16.4516.45
229Hawaii16.4316.43
230Eastern Kentucky16.3816.38
231Robert Morris16.2816.28
232Niagara16.2816.28
233LIU Brooklyn16.2516.25
234Boise St.16.2516.25
235Texas St.16.1116.11
236Denver16.1016.10
237Tennessee St.16.0716.07
238Nicholls St.15.9815.98
239Sam Houston St.15.8415.84
240Albany15.5815.58
241Air Force15.5615.56
242Appalachian St.15.5115.51
243UMBC15.4815.48
244Fairfield15.4015.40
245North Dakota St.15.2915.29
246Stony Brook15.2715.27
247Oral Roberts15.2515.25
248Hampton15.2315.23
249Oakland15.0915.09
250High Point15.0715.07
251Drake14.9614.96
252Cal St. Bakersfield14.9314.93
253Long Beach St.14.9014.90
254George Washington14.8714.87
255Navy14.6014.60
256Brown14.5414.54
257Army14.4814.48
258Manhattan14.3814.38
259Binghamton14.2914.29
260Quinnipiac13.9313.93
261Howard13.9213.92
262Fordham13.7913.79
263Jacksonville13.7813.78
264New Orleans13.7613.76
265Mercer13.7513.75
266Mount St. Mary's13.6813.68
267Charlotte13.555.587.97
268Bucknell13.5313.53
269Eastern Illinois13.4313.43
270Chattanooga13.3513.35
271Detroit13.254.708.55
272Santa Clara13.1513.15
273Central Arkansas13.0013.00
274The Citadel12.9212.92
275Abilene Christian12.8812.88
276Morehead St.12.8012.80
277Holy Cross12.7712.77
278Gardner Webb12.7012.70
279St. Francis NY12.6812.68
280Western Carolina12.6212.62
281Tennessee Martin12.5312.53
282Southern Utah12.4512.45
283Alabama St.12.4212.42
284Sacramento St.12.3212.32
285Dartmouth12.3212.32
286American12.2912.29
287Bethune Cookman12.2612.26
288Texas A&M Corpus Chris12.1612.16
289Portland12.1212.12
290Little Rock12.0812.08
291Prairie View A&M12.0812.08
292Tennessee Tech11.8311.83
293Central Connecticut11.8111.81
294Siena11.8111.81
295Green Bay11.8011.80
296North Carolina Central11.7811.78
297McNeese St.11.7011.70
298Lafayette11.6811.68
299UMass Lowell11.5511.55
300South Florida11.5111.51
301UTEP11.4511.45
302Sacred Heart11.1811.18
303Marist11.1211.12
304Samford11.0911.09
305North Carolina A&T11.0711.07
306Loyola MD10.8610.86
307IUPUI10.7610.76
308Pittsburgh10.7410.74
309Arkansas St.10.7310.73
310New Hampshire10.7210.72
311Youngstown St.10.6310.63
312Norfolk St.10.5610.56
313UMKC10.4810.48
314Western Illinois10.4710.47
315Arkansas Pine Bluff10.4410.44
316Southern10.4110.41
317Rice10.3610.36
318Cal Poly10.2810.28
319Stetson10.1910.19
320Northwestern St.9.899.89
321East Carolina9.879.87
322Northern Arizona9.869.86
323Savannah St.9.799.79
324Cal St. Northridge9.619.61
325UC Riverside9.529.52
326UT Rio Grande Valley9.449.44
327Cleveland St.9.289.28
328Florida Atlantic9.029.02
329Florida A&M9.019.01
330Houston Baptist9.009.00
331Maryland Eastern Shore8.968.96
332Delaware St.8.708.70
333VMI8.638.63
334Kennesaw St.8.528.52
335Maine7.967.96
336Grambling St.7.927.92
337South Carolina St.7.687.68
338SIU Edwardsville7.507.50
339Morgan St.7.397.39
340Incarnate Word7.367.36
341San Jose St.7.267.26
342Presbyterian7.217.21
343Jackson St.7.197.19
344USC Upstate7.077.07
345Bryant6.996.99
346Chicago St.6.616.61
347Mississippi Valley St.6.416.41
348Alcorn St.5.545.54
349Longwood5.165.16
350Coppin St.5.155.15
351Alabama A&M4.804.80

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