"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Friday, March 12, 2021

Xavier's Desperation Bid For a Bid

Xavier clearly wasn't viewing an 0-1 Big East Tournament, while adding their first Quadrant 3 loss, as their ideal scenario going into Championship Week as the last team in our field (and the last team in on bracketmatrix.com). We are waiting on bid thieves before we replace the Musketeers, but clearly their athletic department knows their situation is precarious, which is why they are looking to add games ahead of Selection Sunday. As many teams are still playing in conference tournaments or likely feel they have as much to lose as they do gain after the lesson North Carolina learned in scheduling Quadrant 3 Marquette at home, there is a limited list of teams that might take that call. So who's worth getting on the horn? Here's a short list:

Loyola-Chicago Ramblers (NET 10): I doubt the Ramblers would take the call, but I think you have to start here. They won their auto-bid, so there's no risk of falling out of the field. If Xavier hosted Loyola, it would be a Quadrant 1 game for both teams. It could give LUC the opportunity to secure the 6-seed we project for them, which is much better than the 7-10 range where many believe they will fall that usually leads to a first weekend exit. I'd rate the probability of this one happening as low, but Xavier has to pick up the phone.

St. Louis Billikens (NET 45): My initial thought here was to schedule a neutral site game, but what are the odds SLU wants to risk their at-large hopes for a Q2 win? If Xavier calls the Billikens, they should try to schedule a back-to-back home-and-home on Friday & Saturday. Each team gets a Q1 opportunity, each team gets a Q2 opportunity. If either team can sweep, it gives them a significantly better resume come Sunday morning. Will the Selection Committee factor those games in as heavily as the previous 4 months? It's hard to say, but it might be worth the shot. They could also consider Syracuse, Drake, and Boise State as all are bubble teams whose seasons are over and could use a resume boost.

Arizona Wildcats (NET 46): Did you know that Travis Steele was first hired at Xavier by Sean Miller, current head coach of Arizona? While he was retained by Chris Mack and promoted as Mack's successor, it was Miller who first made the Steele hire. And since Miller's Wildcats are taking a probationary year, they aren't going to be playing in the NCAA Tournament. Xavier could schedule a road game to Arizona to add a Quadrant 1 game (or two?) and his old boss might actually be willing to do that one. They could also consider a road trip to Auburn, who is another Quadrant 1 road opponent that won't be playing next week.

No idea if Xavier will get the chance to boost their resume, nor if it will even help them in the Selection Committee's eyes if they do, but there are at least some options out there. Here's the updated S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-BAYLOR 3-MICHIGAN 4-Illinois

2-Seeds: 8-Houston 7-Ohio State 6-ALABAMA 5-Iowa

3-Seeds: 9-Arkansas 10-Kansas 11-West Virginia 12-Oklahoma State

4-Seeds: 16-Purdue 15-Virginia 14-Texas 13-Villanova

5-Seeds: 17-FLORIDA STATE 18-Tennessee 19-Usc 20-Byu

6-Seeds: 24-LOYOLA CHICAGO 23-CREIGHTON 22-Connecticut 21-Texas Tech

7-Seeds: 25-Wisconsin 26-Clemson 27-OREGON 28-Colorado

8-Seeds: 32-ST BONAVENTURE 31-Oklahoma 30-Missouri 29-SAN DIEGO STATE

9-Seeds: 33-Lsu 34-Florida 35-Rutgers 36-Virginia Tech

10-Seeds: 40-Georgia Tech 39-Michigan State 38-Vcu 37-North Carolina

11-Seeds: 41-Ucla 42-Maryland 43-Louisville 44-WICHITA STATE

12-Seeds: 50-COLGATE 49-TOLEDO 48-Xavier 47-Mississippi 46-Colorado State 45-Drake

13-Seeds: 51-WINTHROP 52-UC SANTA BARBARA 53-LIBERTY 54-WESTERN KENTUCKY

14-Seeds: 58-MOREHEAD STATE 57-GRAND CANYON 56-SOUTHERN UTAH 55-UNC GREENSBORO

15-Seeds: 59-CLEVELAND STATE 60-IONA 61-ORAL ROBERTS 62-DREXEL

16-Seeds: 68-MOUNT ST MARY'S 67-NORFOLK STATE 66- APPALACHIAN STATE 65-PRAIRIE VIEW A&M 64-NICHOLLS STATE 63-HARTFORD

First Four Out: St. Louis, Boise State, Syracuse, SMU

Next Four Out: Memphis, Utah State, St. John's, Seton Hall

 

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