Bracket Chat tonight

Thanks for joining our first ever Bracket Chat. Chas Rich of the Pitt Blather gathered up a number of Big East bloggers to chat through the brackets for the 2010-2011 NCAA Tournament. Follow the chat below and jump in with questions -- we'll start at about 7pm.

Maryland's 2003 and 2004 teams examples of why Palm's "Top 200 record" criteria is flawed

Like many Maryland teams throughout the years, Marquette has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, but warmed up with a bunch of non-top 200 teams.

In 2003 and 2004, Maryland went only 14-9 and 12-11 against Top 200 teams, respectively, and away from home vs. the Pomeroy Top 25 barely missed going 0-11 due to two one-point wins to finish 2-9. However, in 2004 the Terrapins played in by far the best conference in the country AND scheduled Wisconsin (#5 Pomeroy), Gonzaga (#15), Florida (#24) and West Virginia.

The 2004 Maryland squad had the most similar schedule and results to the current Marquette squad of any team since Pomeroy starting his page in 2003. Even if MU wins three of four to close the season, they would be a virtually identical 12-12 against Top 200 teams and they have lost their first six road games against Top 25 teams. However, like the Terrapins, MU played in by far the best conference in the country AND scheduled Duke (#2), Wisconsin (#6), Vanderbilt (#25) and Gonzaga (#49).

And because of the weak Top 200 record and road losses to good teams, Jerry Palm has MU out of the tournament. The good news is he is in the minority, as Forecast RPI gives MU a 9-seed based on the Dance Card criteria that has been within one seed 85% of the time. Most analysts like Mike Miller at NBC Sports (see his quote from Cracked Sidewalks) have MU somewhere in between the two, around a 10- or 11-seed.

RPI Forecast
Beyond The Arc @ NBC Sports
CBS Sports

Jerry Palm has done more for sports analysis than anyone, but I believe these two criteria (can’t beat good teams on the road and Top 200 record) would be dangerous criteria.

1. MU is one of the best teams away from home even if they have lost close road games vs. the Top 25. Based on Sagarin ratings, MU is one of the best 35 teams in the country away from the Bradley Center (86.2 rating) and one of the best 35 teams in the country at the Bradley Center (85.9 rating). MU is 3-6 on the road only because of six single-digit road losses to RPI top 25 teams. This season teams have lost by double digits in 67% of all trips to RPI top 25 teams and won only 9% of the time, so if you are going to start disqualifying teams like Marquette for single digit losses at Top 25 teams then no one is going to schedule the out-of-conference games that the NCAA and fans want.

2. MU’s record vs. the Top 200. Yeah but … if MU finishes 12-12 vs. the Top 200 that would make them 3-11 vs. the Top 25 (one of only 10 teams with three such wins) and 9-1 against 26th to 200th. I believe Jerry Palm is introducing a dangerous criteria, because basically he is disqualifying MU and MSU for playing seven and five (respectively) of their creampuff games against non-top 200 teams instead of teams rated, say, 175th. MU averaged winning those games 91-62 and MSU by 83-57, so to follow that logic, if MU had beaten six teams ranked 150th to 200th by 20 points instead of beating teams below 200th by 30 points, they’d be easily in the tournament with a 19-11 mark vs. the Top 200.

I believe you must keep the focus on how tough the big games are, not whether you schedule Arkansas State (just inside the Top 200) instead of Mississippi Valley State (just outside the Top 200).

Oh, and how tournament worthy did those two Maryland teams prove to be after their brutal schedules that started by warming up with non-Top 200 teams and going 2-9 vs. good road teams and barely .500 vs. Top 200 teams?

In 2003, Maryland (14-9 vs. Top 200) beat an NC Wilmington team with a much better 13-6 mark vs. the Top 200, then a Xavier squad with a much better 20-5 mark to make the Sweet 16, before losing by two points vs. Michigan State to just miss the Elite 8.

In 2004, Maryland (12-11 vs. Top 200) stunned Wake Forest, NC State and Duke to take the ACC tournament and then beat a UTEP team with a much better 18-7 mark vs. the Top 200 before losing by two points to defending national champion Syracuse to just miss consecutive Sweet 16s despite an overall regular season record of 26-20 vs. the Top 200.

Maryland’s victims played tougher creampuffs (top 200), but Maryland played much tougher big games.

Not suggesting Marquette is ready to compete for the Big East title (2.79% chance of winning according to Forecast RPI), but if you throw everyone’ creampuffs out and focus on the brutal rest of the schedule, I believe MU like those Maryland teams is a solid NCAA pick.

Welcome to Selection Sunday

......Tim Maymon Honorary Selection Sunday, that is.

"They (Marquette) didn't want to play the game right, so now we're going to watch them lose every game. That's just how it works."

Nevertheless, the 22-11 Marquette Warriors will dance once more this March. The Bracket Project's National Bracket currently lists Marquette as a 7 seed. In looking more in-depth at their site it appears MU is the lowest-weighted 7 seed in the analysis because the actual average seed for Marquette is an 8. Perhaps the s-curve will work in MU's favor this afternoon.

If you are not familiar with the Bracket Project, the site aggregates and averages out the predictions from dozens of bracketologists each of whom updated their field over night or early this morning. A 7 seed, while deserved based on the team's strong push in the final weeks of the season, feels high to me. I'm prepared to be disappointed when Marquette is awarded and 8 or 9 seed. Rosiak breaks things down a bit further.

With a bid today the Warriors will earn their 5th consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament.

Cincy preview - playoff like pressure with both teams squarely on the bubble

Marquette at Cincinnati (1 p.m. today on MSG, MASN) could well prove to ultimately have been a playoff game that sends one team to the NCAA and the other to the NIT.

The four teams squarely on the ESPN bubble are Marquette (2nd to last invited), St. Mary’s (last invited), Mississippi State (1st team NOT invited) and Cincinnati (2nd team NOT invited). There isn’t a bigger game in the country this weekend (which Lunardi basically just said), because while playing for a higher seed is nice, playing for a bid is much bigger.

A win would be MUs third straight road win, building confidence of their chances in the next two road games at a very improved St. John’s and a tough Seton Hall. A loss would really put MU almost into a do-or-die mode the rest of the way, dropping MU behind Cincy into 8th in the standings and on the verge of losing a bye in the Big East tournament.

Deonta Vaughn (#5, 6-1, 190) distributes the ball to four players between 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-9, and all five of them hit more than 50% of their two-pointers and pound the offensive glass. The two tallest players, 6-8 Steve Toyloy (#42) and 6-9 Yancy Gates (#34) are among the national leaders in offensive rebounds, so once Cincinnati puts up a two-point shot they should score a very high percentage of the time either on that shot or a follow-up shot. Expect to yell, “recruit a big man” every time we get dunked on. Cincy could choose to put 6-foot Cashmire Wright (#1) and 6-3 Doion Dixon (#3) on the floor more with Vaughn to try to match MUs three guards help with the defensive match-up problems teams have with stopping MUs five 3-point shooters.

However, Marquette’s opportunity to overcome another potential dunk-a-thon will be to do the three things they’ve done all year; 1) not compound the problem by fouling the guy while he is dunking on you, 2) turn Cincy over a lot BEFORE they work it in for a point blank shot, and 3) trade their two-point dunk for a three-pointer at the other end.

It’s amazing that this formula has worked so well that MU is still one of only six teams yet to lose by double digits this year. It is pretty select company with only Murray State of the Ohio Valley Conference, Dayton of the A-10 and just three other High Major teams in Baylor, and two projected No. 1 seeds in Purdue and Kansas.

The good news is that Cincinnati turns the ball over a lot, so MU has a chance to have a huge advantage in turnovers, and they don’t draw fouls, which is very crucial since MU cannot afford to have Lazar Hayward or Jimmy Butler in foul trouble.

The bad news is that Cincy defends the 3-pointer well (32.5% of threes allowed), which is a big concern after Pitt held MU to 5 of 19 on treys, knocking MU down to 41.6% for the year and from 1st to 4th in the country (though still 1st among Major Conferences).

I was concerned that perhaps a strong three-point defense was a tough match-up for MU since Pitt was the toughest against the trey in the Big East. However, in looking further, the only tougher 3-point defense MU has faced was Xavier, which is actually the 3rd toughest in the country at 27.5% allowed. As easily as MU handled Xavier, ranked 19th in the RPI today, it appears it was either just an offnight or a particularly good scheme by Jamie Dixon that stopped MU from their normal 3-ball sharpshooting. In fact, Syracuse, UWM, UConn and South Florida are all tougher than Cincy at denying the trey.

While Cincy has shown scary potential in beating Vandy (No. 11 RPI) and Maryland (No. 35) before a two-point loss to Gonzaga, they have not blown anyone away on their home court in Big East play. Pitt and Syracuse are the only two to go into Cincy and win, so this would be a huge quality win for MU, but UConn (2 points), ND (2 points), Providence (4 points) and USF (8 points) have all kept it close in Cincy.

The pressure built with “losing serve” with the home loss to Pitt. A win at Cincinnati today would give MU some cushion in making the tourney. A loss would not eliminate MU, but it would certainly tighten the pressure heading into two more tough road games before MU returns to the Bradley Center against Louisville.

MU controls it's destiny, and some good things happened this week to cushion the blow of the Pitt loss. UConn is back in the Top 50 of the RPI, adding a quality road win to Marquette's resume, Xavier is now in the Top 20 RPI after thrashing a team competiting with MU (Florida) on the road. That makes MU 2-6 against the RPI Top 20, a very impressive asterick to the 3-7 overall against the Top 50 RPI. It didn't hurt to have NC State destroy No. 25 Wake Forest by 14, having already beaten Duke by the same margin, to help make DePaul the only really bad loss (though remember they did at least beat a ranked Northern Iowa team).

It’s not do-or-die yet, but we are almost in playoff mode right now.

MU earns a #3 seed in the 2008 NCAA tourney

Hey, its never too early to get wrapped up in bracketology

Check it out here.