Recruiting Targets Expected to Decide this Week

UPDATED

The three top names that we know about are all expected to announce their decisions this week. First, SG Rodney Hood will announce at noon on Wed, according to Zagoria. Further, Zagoria says Hood will choose from among Florida State, Mississippi State, Louisville, Marquette and Alabama. Hood is currently ranked as the #36 player according to RSCI. Scout analyst Evan Daniels doesn't even think we are in Hood's top 3, but of course he also says that he doesn't know what or when Hood is going to announce.

On Thursday, two more names will make their decisions official as well. Again, according to Zagoria, Nick Faust will take official to Villanova this weekend & announce Oct. 28. Maryland, FSU, Oregon State & Marquette also involved. Zags tips Alex Kline for the info. The 6'5 WG is the #32 player according to RSCI. Here's a fun mixtape to watch. MU is still considered in the running, but Villanova has been making a strong late push and Maryland has long been considered the front runner.

6'8 PF Mike Shaw from Chicago is also making his announcement on Thursdays. MU has been in the running, but whispers are out that the #50 player is expected to choose Illinois. Also here from the Sun-Times. There's an outside chance on this one, but don't get your hopes up. We'll believe Marquette is out of it when the final announcement is made by Shaw.

With all three of these players, there is enough information to either be optimistic or pessimistic depending on your general perspective. As a sometimes curmudgeon, it is a very real possibility that at the end of this week, none of these players will have decided to come play for Marquette. We believe in MU's chances, but the nature of the recruiting game means a team misses more than they make. However, I'm not really worried about the recruiting under Buzz, and certainly won't have any angst about the info this week.

Episode 9 of Marquette Basketball: Revealed

We've been critical of some of these, but this one was really enjoyable. This episode could also be titled "Buzz yells at Vander and Junior"




Other Quick Links

The East Coast Bias did Round Two of the BE Blogger Roundtable. This version had each blogger take a guess at the starting fives. Plus, there is also a Round Three, where each blogger talked about what happened during the offseason. In particular, Round three is well worth reading to get a feel for the league.

Rosiak took a look at the team one week in, including the Haunted Hoops scrimmage and a lot of good things to say about Reggie Smith.

Yet Another Basketball Blog predicts the Big EAST and places Marquette 7th.

Steve Novak made the Mavericks Roster (for now). Do great, Steve!

Rush The Court looks at 2010-1011 Impact Players from the Midwest, and has some nice things to say about Jimmy F. Butler.

Ray Floriani, contributor to Villanova By the Numbers, talked Four Factors (especially turnover margin) with Buzz Williams at the BE Media Day. I still can't decide if Buzz really doesn't know about the Four Factors, or if he's just playing the "Aw Shucks" routine.

Time waster extraordinaire. Busting the Bracket's 2011 Season Preview.

edit: Added Marquette Revealed and BE Blogger Roundtable
edit: Added further BE Blogger Roundtable

Friday Media Update

UPDATED

Thanks to everyone that helped up break the stretch goal of nearly $3,300 to support Al's Run. Because of your generosity, we were able to exceed last year's total, mostly due to some very kind donations. There's still time if you haven't, so please donate to Al's Run now. Every little bit counts.

A few days ago, Marquette released some details about Marquette Madness. It'll be on Friday, Oct. 15 at 7 p.m. in the Al McGuire Center. Doors will open at approximately 6:45 p.m. MUTV Sports will stream the entire event.



Earlier this week MU released another episode of Marquette basketball revealed. This one looks at Buzz on the road, and the role key people play behind the scenes.

Buzz did an interview with MSG's Jon Rothstein, who posted the responses on his Twitter feed. Or... you could also read the summary in the MUScoop thread or Jon's article that he posted this morning. Buzz also did a radio interview with Milwaukee radio's Bob and Brian (click here and search for Buzz Williams). Buzz has been busy - he was also interviewed yesterday on the WSSP afternoon show.

Check out Villanova By The Numbers for their great preview of Marquette. It's fair, well researched, and in-depth. And oh so accurate -- "Blue is a consensus Top 50 recruit, who was slated to go to Wisconsin before Badger fans changed his mind." Greycat is doing a full preview for each team in the BE. They're all good.

Super recruit Quincy Miller indicated yesterday that MU remains on his list for now. Full details in the article he wrote in SLAM. Of course, according to Zagoria, Miller cut his list down to four and Marquette isn't on it. Seriously, Miller committing to MU is a pipe dream.

Finally, take a look at this mini-documentary about Wesley Matthews. , Wesley had 20 points two nights ago, and 21 points last night. Good start by Wesley.

Friday Media Updates

Anything happen in the world of basketball last night?

Well, there's been plenty of action in the Marquette Universe, so here are some links that you may or may not have seen.

First things first, don't forget that the Warrior Day Golf Outing is coming up on Monday, July 26th. This is the third annual outing, and the coverage is starting to bloom as Journal-Sentinel gives a great story about Bo and the event. Here's a PSA about the event to get you ready. Take a vacation day... it's summer!



Buried in the story is also a note about Coach Hank Raymonds being ill. Our prayers are with you, Coach.

As many of you know, Vander Blue was part of the US team that won a gold medal in the U18 FIBA Championship. Want to go deeper on Vander's performances? Stellar Villanova blog Villanova By the Numbers gives some more detail on the entire tourney. Check out his initial view here, and then his recap of the USA-Canada game and the championship game against Brazil. Honestly, the early view of Vander's offensive performance has some questions. Despite some efficient shooting in the final game, his offensive rating numbers were sub-par, which was most likely impacted by a higher number of turnovers. Buzz will cut those turnovers down, but if Vander isn't making the floor early that may be a good indication why.

Rosiak also had more on Jamil Wilson, with a follow-up interview of Jamil and Buzz.

Speaking of roster turnover, there's a new walk-on. Dave Singleton is a 6'3 guard that played two seasons at High Point University under current MU Director of Basketball Operations Bart Lundy. He will sit out in 2010-11 and have two seasons of elibility left. Checking out his bio from High Point, Singleton does not appear to be your typical walk-on. As one poster on MUScoop said, this is exactly the type of player we wish was around when Diener broke his hand. One wonders if there might be a scholarship in Singleton's future.

On former MU players, follow the efforts of McNeal and James in this MUScoop thread.. In addition, former player Mbao is transferring to Marshall. We wish the very best luck to Yous.

If you are around Milwaukee the next few weekends, check out the Milwaukee Summer Pro-Am, which was initiated by IWB. The team rosters are a who's who of former Marquette and other local Wisconsin players. Here is the detailed schedule of games. The first set of games are this Saturday, concluding with a championship game at The Al on August 8th. Very cool, especially if you're jonesing for a little MU hoops action.

Finally, GoMarquette.com launched a revamped website. Go click around and spend some time. Start with the Men's Basketball Page, and maybe the rosters.

Go Marquette

Monday Media Update

Just a few links to catch up on various Marquette activities.

Rush the Court has their BE preview. Unfortunately, they pick MU as #11 in conference and missing the NIT. ouch. In some slightly better news, Vegas Watch has a stats-driven preview and they forecast MU as #8th overall. (HT: Villanova By the Numbers for both links) I would sign up for 8th right now.

Although we covered the links to the Post-Game Press Conference as well as the MSOE Highlight reel, there were a few other links to check out in case you missed them. Here is the official GoMarquette.com recap. Check out the Cubillan-Buycks podcast, the box score, or the photo gallery. If you didn't get a chance to read them immediately, Rosiak had an immediate blog post, a blog recap, and then an official story for the JSOnline.

Of course, we're not here to talk about the past (or something like that). Want to get ready for the season? Buzz' radio show is tonight at the Annex from 6-7 PM. If you want to get your info from the talking box, Inside Marquette Basketball with Buzz Williams, hosted by Dennis Krause, starts up again on Tuesday at 5 pm (Channel 32). Rosiak is also hosting a chat Tuesday night at 7 pm. Rosiak's chat sessions are great.

You could also brush up on Famous Centenary Alumni, or even Famous Marquette Alumni. We may just have to add Wesley Matthews to the list, who had himself a bit of a breakout game a few nights ago.

Yet Another Basketball Blog has a section of printable brackets for the Fall tournaments. I agree... Printable brackets are fun. If you want, here's the Old Spice Bracket.

Finally, MUScoop poster MUCrew has produced some outstanding wallpaper for the November schedule (1440x900 or 1084x768). Fricking sweet.

News and Notes, and a start to the Big East Preview

In case you didn't get a chance to see it, ESPN.com has a Shootaround focusing on the Big East. There is a team capsule for every team in the league and a feature article about the new, revised BET that now includes every team in the league. There are also vignettes about Keno Davis (Providence), AJ Price, the difficulty of exiting the BE basement, Shrek, and the likelihood of getting nine teams into the NCAA tournament. Also, Jay Bilas picks Marquette to finish fifth.

A fellow stathead at Villanova by the Numbers has an entry about Returning Minutes Experience. Instead of breaking down the total returning minutes, greyCat looks at the quality of experience. It's an interesting take on the quality of returning players, and it's not just because he ranks Marquette #1.

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Given all that, I wanted to take my own look at a Big East Preview. We will consider the following areas based only on Big East statistics. Today will just be a quick introduction to the way I'm approaching the analysis. It's obviously not infallible. If it were, then where would be the fun of a preview? Onto the stats being considered:

#1 - A team that underperformed or overperformed based on last year's stats

Based on a team's Offensive and Defensive efficiency during conference, they should end up with a projected win-loss record. Often, the projection will end up not as a nice even integer, leaving the final results as a record of coaching ability (or lack thereof) and/or luck. Sometimes, a team will end up outside the standard deviation as a significant underperformer or overperformer. In particular, these are teams we will watch closely because we expect them to return closer to form.

Example - based on last year's stats, Notre Dame should have finished with a record of 11.7 - 6.3 (0.648) in conference. Instead, they ended up with a record of 14-4 (0.778). That gets a red flag.

#2 - Consistency (or Inconsistency) of the team last year

Consistency is both good and bad. If you're a bad team, it's not very acceptable to be consistently bad. On the other hand, if you're a good team, it's great to be consistent. I'm really looking more at inconsistency than anything. The best way of looking at consistency is that inconsistent good teams lose more than they should and inconsistent bad teams win more than they should. Teams that return a large number of players should become more consistent.

Example - Marquette was the most inconsistent team in the Big East last year. They also finished under their projected win total. This year they are extremely experienced and may end up more consistent.

#3 - Quality of Junior and Senior players (Using data provided by Villanova by the Numbers and then modified)

As mentioned above, Villanova by the Numbers had an interesting look at the quality of returning minutes. It basically factors in the team's percentage of returning minutes while looking at if those players are also Seniors. I modified the percentages slightly to include Junior and Senior returning minutes. This is obviously not a perfect way of looking at returning minutes, but I think a team playing with mostly Seniors and Juniors will beat an equally talented team playing with mostly Freshmen and Sophomores.

Example - UConn returns the highest percentage of Junior and Senior minutes. This is a big bonus.

#4 - Regression of a team towards 0.500

There's a statistical theory in Dean Oliver's "Basketball on Paper" that says a team tends to regress towards 0.500. Intuitively, this makes sense. It's pretty darn hard to stay at the upper echelon of the league on a consistent basis. Players leave, and no matter how talented a team or coach may be, eventually that team gets pulled towards 0.500. It's a mark of a good coach to keep the team performing consistently above this trend. Likewise, it's also hard for a team to stay bad for a consistently long time, if for no other reason than the team can get a new coach and offer players the promise of playing time.

Example - Providence should have finished with a record of 7.1 - 10.9. Based strictly on the numbers, PC should expect a 9% increase in win % for a record of 7.8 - 10.2. Considering that the team actually ended up 6 - 12, PC is looking at a two game bump just based on stats... and the makings of a "Keno Davis Turnaround Story" sometime in Feb.

#5 - Quality of incoming players based on RSCI

I'll fess up... I didn't feel like looking up every single team for notable transfers and incoming juco players. So instead I went on the basis of the RSCI Top 100 list to see which teams were bringing in consensus top 100 talent. In a lot of situations, this can offset the loss of starting minutes. However, as seen by our beloved Marquette team, which introduced two juco players that expect to compete for playing time, there are some limitations to using this format.

Example - Georgetown lost a lot of quality players last year, like some guys named Hibbert and Wallace. However, they offset that by adding the RSCI #65, #66, and #79 players as freshmen. That's a big bonus.

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For every section, I compiled the stats for last year's conference play, and then tracked teams on each category. Special attention was paid to situations where a team was more than a standard deviation above or below the mean. Using this criteria, we'll tackle each of the teams in the Big East to see where the various teams may be influenced.