Autumn Sole-stice

We'd like to welcome back Dr. Blackheart with another high-quality contribution.  Please read it, and then go donate to Al's Run.  Also, we had a number of folks that were having credit card contribution errors, but we're hoping the firstgiving system is fixed today.  Help our community make it to the front page of the leaderboard! 

Seriously, if you have any interest whatsoever in college basketball recruiting, this may be the most original and important article you read all month.  It's that good.  Thanks, Dr. Blackheart!

====

With about a month to go before the start of the “Hoops Season”, Marquette will be hosting at least one prime recruiting target this weekend for the Al’s Run festivities--6’9”, Zach Auguste of the New Hampton School (Todd Townsend’s Prep school) and member of the Albany Rocks AAU team--in a push to close off Marquette’s 2012 class.  Building off the Sweet 16 run, the coaching staff has filled in MU’s basketball future very nicely, creating a deep and balanced team outlook with Top 100+ talent for both the 2012 and 2013 classes.  With a continuous focus on recruiting, staff continuity, a broadened national scope, roots within the JUCO ranks, and with Buzz’s now established prominence on the court, it appears that MU will put together five highly rated recruiting classes in a row.  But, there is one area that Buzz has worked hard to reestablish for Marquette, due primarily to strong legwork by Associate Head Coach Tony Benford, and that is the grassroots/AAU basketball pipeline.

Top 50 Hit Parade

While recruiting is a crapshoot, with success highly dependent on the maturity and development of teens into men, the overwhelming fact is that programs who consistently land Top 50 rated talent win national championships:  UConn, Duke, UNC (2), Kansas, Florida (2), and Syracuse of note over the past decade.  Each of these programs and a select group of competitive others (the Caliparis, the Pitinos, the Izzos) have established coaches at the helm--all known as long-time proven winners and gatekeepers for future NBA talent—which is obviously very appealing to highly rated recruits.  However, in reality, the number of Top 50 recruits over four years is just a small percentage of the 4485 Division 1 scholarships available last season to the 345 programs (maybe 4% tops, accounting for NBA and drop-out attrition).  

This scarcity of talent creates a Meat Market mentality as hundreds of teams go hard after this disproportionate pool of highly valued talent.  It is big business for the schools at the top:  for their enrollments and endowments, NCAA shares, for the coaches, for the players with NBA aspirations, for their athletic department budgets, and for their conferences and the NCAA.  It is also big business for their apparel sponsors and media partners.  With this can come the dirty underside of grassroots/AAU basketball (which has justly many overwhelmingly positive benefits)--the street agents, the posses, the pull of apparel/shoe merchandisers on their sponsored AAU teams and players, and the unscrupulous college coaches trying to grab an edge—all trying to influence and covet the riches that the Top 50 talent can yield.

The books Sole Influence, by Dan Wetzel, and Dead Coach Walking, the autobiography of retired coach Tom Penders, both delved into the influences in grassroots/AAU basketball.  As a result of this, I decided to take a deep dive into the 2011 Scout Top 100 recruit list to study the correlation of apparel/shoe associations to AAU and college teams to see what could be learned (despite the smaller sample sizes).  (Note:  I used the Scout revised ratings as the final summer RSCI weighted ratings did not include the late reclassified Andre Drummond to the 2011 class.  His late commitment to UCONN is a case study in itself.  Also, on a note of personal disclosure: I am not a recruiting guru by any means, just a fan and observer of the game—there are many more who can add to this discussion based on their experience and knowledge).

Tightening the Laces

Percentage of recruits that signed with a school that share AAU affiliation by recruit level

• 76% of the Top 25 recruits signed with college teams that shared sponsors with their AAU team.  While there are misses in ratings at this level, this is usually the group where early entrants into the NBA are found.  There are usually some very strong suggestions of outside influence at this level (but allowable), and the reality is that most of these kids need close advisors to help them through the grinder. 
• The direct connection of sponsorship to commitment waned to 50% for the Bottom 50, as the outside influence attention seemingly goes to the Top 50 and swings back to the parents, high school coaches, and lean-in potential seen by the recruiting school. 
• The main exceptions to the sponsor to recruit connection are the great coaches who can draw across sponsorships (think the Coach K peer set).  
• The other exceptions appear to be driven by close proximity to the recruiting college, Prep school sponsor affiliation, and past AAU roots to a recruiter on staff (think Faust).   Still the sponsor and AAU pull is very prevalent in most of these cases, although not as direct, it would appear. 
•  The only Top 100 recruit not involved in AAU ball is #29 Otto Porter to Georgetown. 
• Only a handful of independent AAU clubs (3) had recruits in the Top 100. 
• Nike affiliated AAU team recruits comprised 58% of the Top 100, while Adidas had 34%.  But Nike’s conversion pull was much stronger.  Those teams converted 76% of the recruits within network vs. 34% for the Adidas sponsored colleges.  Jordan-Kobe-Wade-James vs. Howard-Rose-Garnett-Duncan (Sonny Vaccaro knew that guards sell shoes, not big men).

Conference Call

AAU / School affiliation by Conference

• The sponsorship ties for the major conferences hover around the 60% conversion mark, and 50% or below for the dissolving Big 12 and the mids. 
• The Big 10 conversion ties were the strongest at 67%, followed by the Big East at 61% and SEC at 60%.  This matches the geographies these schools recruit (urban or south where AAU is strongest), and the strong college media and sponsorship deals that help drive conversion.  
• Coaches Self, Barnes, K, Roy, Calhoun, and Pitino were able to recruit beyond their shoe network with their strong pull and histories of success.  This is elite.

Tying It All Up (and looking at Marquette)

• While scandals are sensational news stories, and there are documented bad apples, this AAU-Sponsorship dance is allowable and legal in the vast majority of cases, despite the many whispers.  Handler involvement is very heavy for the Top 25 especially it would appear.  The NCAA would be better off spending most of their time monitoring the recruitment of this group rather than focusing on the other 4385. 
• Even the legends get caught in the trap of NCAA violations, whether the Izzo one game suspension over the Dawson recruitment or Calhoun’s recent violations.  
• Whether Bo at Wisconsin (a roster of Adidas AAU players) or Marquette (Nike), AAU connections matter at this level.  So does Top 50 talent if high achievement is the game.  
• Buzz is developing his AAU network to get in the game with these Top 50 recruits.  Burton allowed him to break-through a barrier, showing yet again that Buzz is building on MU’s Sweet 16 success (unlike Crean with the 2003 Final Four and the Larry Butler fall-out over Odartey Blankson).  Buzz clearly needs to hit the higher level of sustained on-court success to break-through to the Top 25 Burger Boys like the legends.  This will take time. 
• Benford has been nailing it for Marquette, opening his AAU networks as he did with Burton and Taylor.   
• Let’s see if Buzz can keep the momentum going against a strong list of finalists for Auguste (West Virginia, Florida, and Georgia Tech—two Nike and one Russell sponsor).  Zach has developing potential and is a great missing piece for the Marquette 2012 class.  Here is to a great visit!

Problems At The Point

For the first time in nearly two decades, Marquette basketball has a point guard problem.

This is hard to believe for a program that, since 1992, has consecutively relied on the able skills and high basketball IQs of Tony Miller, Aaron Hutchins, Cordell Henry, Travis Diener, Dominic James and (gasp!) Maurice Acker. Nevertheless, Marquette's run of excellence at the point is over and no relief is in sight.

While this year's team has a variety of issues, the lack of a 'Traditional Marquette Point Guard' has cost the Warriors a chance at a handful of victories. This year MU surely leads the nation in last-second shots not taken, and the team's struggles to maintain large leads (and late leads) often boils down to poor decision-making and a lack of the appropriate skills for the moment.

The problems are not limited to only the very close games. In the second half against Georgetown the offense endured a turnover rate of 24%, meaning MU coughed the ball up once every four times down the court. The pattern continued against St. Johns where poor decision-making and turnovers doomed the Warriors. All told, Marquette point guards combined for eight turnovers against the Johnnies and MU had a turnover rate of 25% for the game and 31% in the second half alone. Opponents have figured out MU and the team is struggling to adjust in the season's final stages.

Dwight Buycks, forced to play out of position as this team's de-facto point guard, was strong out of the gate but his effectiveness has waned noticeably in recent weeks. Still, Buycks' selflessness and his willingness to learn a new position nearly allowed MU to bridge from the "Golden Era of Marquette Point Guards" while not being one himself. Unfortunately, this may be a bridge to nowhere.

Junior Cadougan, supported by incoming freshman Derrick Wilson, figures to be the starting point guard on next year's team. Still, the sophomore shows few signs of being the solid 30-35 mpg team leader the program needs. Cadougan is an 'east to west' player who currently struggles to defend, struggles to challenge defenders off the bounce, and is no threat to score. While he is improving -- his A/TO ratio is very good -- the Toronto native is role player at a position where the program needs so much more.

Looking ahead, next season the Warriors will be loaded, returning two of the Big East's 10 best players in Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom. Jamil Wilson figures to be one of the league's top newcomers and a full year of maturity for what will be a more veteran roster will pay dividends.

Perhaps Cadougan will channel Maurice Acker -- oft-maligned by yours truly heading into his senior season -- and step up his level of play to unexpectedly. One can hope.

While it could be a reach, Buzz Williams could consider shifting Vander Blue to the point. Blue is not a classic '2' and seems to be more of an 'Alpha Dog' - a guard who plays better with the ball in his hands, breaking down defenders off the dribble. While this might be the kind of player Blue develops into, it would be a tall order to assume a lead role like this as a sophomore on a team that needs a savvy distributor who can shoot. His development at this position might depend on how Buzz uses the final two available scholarships for next season.

What about the bigs? Game by game (year by year?), Marquette fans lament the program's lack of skilled big men. However as Pudner pointed out and Rosiak noted earlier this week, Marquette in good shape on the baseline. Chris Otule continues to make great strides and freshman Davante Gardner also shows great promise. Few big men dominate offensively or defensively so a core of serviceable big men is a more realistic and attainable strategy for most high-major programs.

Who knew the strength of the program would shift to the front court in just a matter of months.

Without a natural point guard who has the basketball intellect to make good decisions consistently, the ability to set up his teammates, and the skill to score, the team is at a disadvantage. Buzz Williams has two open scholarships and must find a way to improve at the point or risk running a rudderless but talented bunch out onto the court next season.

Marquette Basketball Friday Digest

Here's a quick look back at the week that was for the Marquette Warriors who now stand at 14-9 overall and 5-5 in the Big East. With eight regular season games left MU still has a puncher's chance at an NCAA bid though the lack of a quality road win remains an albatross for this bunch. The Warriors are off through next week when they travel to USF on Wednesday, February 9 followed by a trip to Georgetown on Sunday, February 13.

Let's look back on the week that was:

-- MU started the week with a National Marquette Day victory over Syracuse.

-- John Pudner noted that MU's three wins over top-25 RPI teams strengthened MU's NCAA chances while we also noted that the fun with bracketology is just beginning.

-- Dr. Blackheart joined us again for a post about pace and the rest of the schedule -- and rightly figuring that the way teams could continue to break down MU was to manage the pace better. This is something we'll look into again down the line.

-- DJO's fine performances in Big East play deserved attention -- this guy was quite a find by Buzz.

-- The MUTV Sports team rocked it out once again.

-- Heading into Villanova, Pudner figured it would take one of MU's best performances to-date in order to win. I was not confident of a victory but expected a close game. Ultimately Pudner was right, MU didn't play at a high level and fell 75-70 to Villanova.

Additional updates of note:

• Buzz Williams is aggressively recruiting for 2011 roster help through the winter. Todd Mayo, the younger brother of O.J. Mayo, is considering Marquette among a host of other schools. Details on Mayo and his recruitment are here.
• 2012 stud and local product J.P. Tokoto talks about recruiting, Marquette and Buzz Williams with Fox Sports.
  
• Buzz is also active with 2012 kids including 6'10" A.J. Hammons.
• 2011 signee Juan Anderson is featured in this article and video. Check it out.
• When in doubt MU should wear white jerseys. The team is 42-3 in the classic whites since the 2007-2008 season.
• Marquette graduate Steve Novak is looking for a fresh start in the NBA Development League.
• Marquette graduate Wesley Matthews was selected to play in the upcoming NBA Rookie/Sophomore Challenge Game during the NBA All-Star Weekend.

Recruiting Targets Expected to Decide this Week

UPDATED

The three top names that we know about are all expected to announce their decisions this week. First, SG Rodney Hood will announce at noon on Wed, according to Zagoria. Further, Zagoria says Hood will choose from among Florida State, Mississippi State, Louisville, Marquette and Alabama. Hood is currently ranked as the #36 player according to RSCI. Scout analyst Evan Daniels doesn't even think we are in Hood's top 3, but of course he also says that he doesn't know what or when Hood is going to announce.

On Thursday, two more names will make their decisions official as well. Again, according to Zagoria, Nick Faust will take official to Villanova this weekend & announce Oct. 28. Maryland, FSU, Oregon State & Marquette also involved. Zags tips Alex Kline for the info. The 6'5 WG is the #32 player according to RSCI. Here's a fun mixtape to watch. MU is still considered in the running, but Villanova has been making a strong late push and Maryland has long been considered the front runner.

6'8 PF Mike Shaw from Chicago is also making his announcement on Thursdays. MU has been in the running, but whispers are out that the #50 player is expected to choose Illinois. Also here from the Sun-Times. There's an outside chance on this one, but don't get your hopes up. We'll believe Marquette is out of it when the final announcement is made by Shaw.

With all three of these players, there is enough information to either be optimistic or pessimistic depending on your general perspective. As a sometimes curmudgeon, it is a very real possibility that at the end of this week, none of these players will have decided to come play for Marquette. We believe in MU's chances, but the nature of the recruiting game means a team misses more than they make. However, I'm not really worried about the recruiting under Buzz, and certainly won't have any angst about the info this week.

Episode 9 of Marquette Basketball: Revealed

We've been critical of some of these, but this one was really enjoyable. This episode could also be titled "Buzz yells at Vander and Junior"




Other Quick Links

The East Coast Bias did Round Two of the BE Blogger Roundtable. This version had each blogger take a guess at the starting fives. Plus, there is also a Round Three, where each blogger talked about what happened during the offseason. In particular, Round three is well worth reading to get a feel for the league.

Rosiak took a look at the team one week in, including the Haunted Hoops scrimmage and a lot of good things to say about Reggie Smith.

Yet Another Basketball Blog predicts the Big EAST and places Marquette 7th.

Steve Novak made the Mavericks Roster (for now). Do great, Steve!

Rush The Court looks at 2010-1011 Impact Players from the Midwest, and has some nice things to say about Jimmy F. Butler.

Ray Floriani, contributor to Villanova By the Numbers, talked Four Factors (especially turnover margin) with Buzz Williams at the BE Media Day. I still can't decide if Buzz really doesn't know about the Four Factors, or if he's just playing the "Aw Shucks" routine.

Time waster extraordinaire. Busting the Bracket's 2011 Season Preview.

edit: Added Marquette Revealed and BE Blogger Roundtable
edit: Added further BE Blogger Roundtable

Marquette News Around the Web

It is so nice that Rushin is back at SI. This article about why he doesn't have a college football team really hit the mark for me. I mostly use college football as an indicator that the NFL starts soon, which is also mostly just an indicator that College Hoops will be back soon.

MUAthletics is trying another innovative social media ticket campaign. If you are on twitter, tweet @muathletics your reasons to purchase MU tickets or to give a short plug on the upcoming 2010-11 MU basketball season. Marquette could pick your tweets to appear on billboards in the greater Milwaukee area. The billboards are the ones at 14th and St. Paul as well as one heading North on I-43. Cracked Sidewalks is in the game.

The Miami NewTimes asks if Dwyane Wade has a kryptonite, and settles on his former SLU nemesis Josh Fisher. In those games, Wade was held to six points and seven points, respectively.

According to his twitter feed, Novak is working out for the Spurs and the Bulls. Good luck to Steve trying to latch on with a team.

Also, you need to be an insider (cough) to read the article, but ESPN has a decent feature on Wesley Matthews.

Finally, the Open Recruiting period begins today. There's no doubt Buzz and company will be extremely busy over the upcoming time leading up to and through Marquette Madness. The SportsBank has a nice recruiting summary.

Playboy: MU #1 Catholic Party School

As if recruits needed another reason to select Marquette, Playboy named the institution as the nation's #1 Catholic party school.

This should help recruiting. Think about it .. Buzz will be telling some mom how great a Jesuit education is, how valuable a MU degree is, then mom leaves to get lemonade, boom. #1 party school, Playboy edition.




Oh, that quote 20 seconds in from a "Marquette Message Board"? "This is awesome. I'm updating my resume."

That wasn't some graduating senior, some job hunting 22 year old. It was more like a 41 year old, former Season Ticket Holder of the Game, who writes for Cracked Sidewalks. Hmm .. who could that be?

If my mom was alive, she would be so proud right now.


More coverage from the MU Tribune.

Looking ahead to 2010-2011

During the last three weeks the nature of Marquette's roster next season has taken shape with verbal commitments from a pair of recruits and the decision to redshirt another player.

A couple of weeks ago I looked at the fallout from the surprising verbal commitment of 6'4" guard D.J. Newbill. Newbill is a classic under the radar kid who appears to be blowing up as a senior, prompting MU to push for a verbal as other programs began to make their way to Strawberry Mansion. To be sure Newbill is a talented player but his verbal ensured that Buzz Williams would have six guards on the roster next season while the Warriors maintained a gaping hole(s) on the baseline.

About that baseline gap......

Recently Buzz Williams announced that 6'10" sophomore Chris Otule will redshirt this season. The big Texan will have three years of eligibility remaining. On the one hand it is disappointing that Otule won't be able to return to help the Warriors down the stretch, but the redshirt year could help him and the team immensely. In the more intense collegiate environment Otule's body has yet to hold up and perhaps an additional season to improve his overall strength, conditioning and durability will lead to more consistent minutes in the coming years.

Perhaps the most important roster news of the last several weeks was the verbal commitment of 6'6" forward Jae Crowder from Howard Junior College in Big Spring, Texas. Originally from Georgia, Crowder went largely unnoticed in high school but his play as a freshman at South Georgia Tech was spectacular. At South Georgia Tech Crowder averaged 17 points and 10 boards, and was named the player of the year by the Georgia Junior College Athletic Association.

According to reports Crowder transferred out of South Georgia Tech because the college was not accredited, potentially limiting his collegiate options. This year at Howard Crowder is averaging 18 points, 9 rebounds and better than two steals per game for the Hawks.

While undersized at 6'6" Crowder is apparently up to 230 pounds offering the kind of muscle and girth that will fill a huge need on the baseline next season. Is Crowder enough? Certainly not but with the pressure on, Buzz landed a player to fill the program's most acute need and was able to corral a more mature player at that. One interesting aspect of Buzz' player development to date is that he is much more adept at coaching, teaching and developing mature talent than he is true freshmen. The in-season development of Jimmy Butler last year, the steady play of Darius Johnson-Odom and the improved production from Dwight Buycks this year are in stark contrast to the uneven freshmen performances turned in by Jeronne Maymon, Erik Williams and Chris Otule, none of whom made appreciable contributions as freshmen.

Heading into next season Buzz Williams will have one of the deepest backcourts in the BIG EAST -- Dwight Buycks, Darius Johnson-Odom, Junior Cadougan, Vander Blue, D.J. Newbill, and Reggie Smith.

This group of guards is collectively bigger and more talented than the current vintage and they'll be complemented by wing/combo forwards like Erik Williams, Joe Fulce, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, and Jamail Jones. Perhaps big men Yous Mbao and the recuperating Chris Otule will be ready for primetime by next fall.

A quick look at the handy MUScoop Scholarship table shows that Marquette will have a deeper and more talented roster next season, full of interchangeable parts enabling Buzz Williams to potentially confuse opponents with a vast array of lineups. The team will remain massively inexperienced on the baseline and expecting Mbao or Otule to deliver consistent production would be a mistake. However, the baseline talent deficit will have to be overcome by the roster's other strengths if the program expects to build on its encouraging performance this season.

The Pursuit of the Perfect 6'5" And Under Team

Over the weekend the news broke that Marquette secured another verbal commitment for the incoming freshman class of 2010. Devonte "DJ" Newbill, a high-scoring 6'4" combo guard from Philadelphia, is the latest thoroughbred to join Buzz Williams' stable.....but he'll have to share a stall with five other guards next season.

Why is Buzz Williams shamelessly continuing the recruiting pattern of his predecessor? The program's relentless pursuit of The Perfect 6'5" And Under Team is once again in full effect.

Adding Newbill to incoming and returning backcourt talents like Junior Cadougan, Dwight Buycks, Darius Johnson-Odom, Reggie Smith and Vander Blue is enough to make the general manager of any Gus Macker squad giddy with anticipation. While these guards are collectively bigger and much more talented than recent Marquette backcourts, these are still guards and none of them can be counted on to score, defend, or rebound on the block.

Making matters more challenging is the logjam MU has at the combo forward spot where no player on next year's roster has the skills or physical attributes to be a consistent baseline presence. While lithe and athletic, the crew of Jimmy Butler, Erik Williams, Joe Fulce and Jamail Jones will provide little resistance to the BIG EAST's cadre of physical forwards and centers. Yet one of these players might be the Warriors' starting center next year.

As it stands now, headed into next season MU is betting the baseline on two centers who can politely be referred to as projects with significant injury risks. And no power forward on the roster, not one.

How did Buzz Williams lead us to this point? Less than a year ago the transformation of Marquette's roster away from a guard-happy group of poorly balanced classes was promising. Unfortunately injuries (Liam McMorrow), departures (Brett Roseboro, Jeronne Maymon), near-misses (Carson Desrosiers), and mistakes (Monterale Clark) sent Buzz Williams back to the well once more, a well that seems to spring forth only guards despite the program's perennially acute need for size and strength.

Does height matter? As we've noted previously Ken Pomeroy completed an in-depth report on this topic and the results were clear. Pomeroy's analysis indicated that taller teams were slightly more effective offensively and substantially improved defensively. It's not just Pomeroy who is on this point. Jay Wright, who's Villanova squad is rightly cited as the inspiration for guard-oriented rosters, has adapted his recruiting in recent classes.

While Buzz Williams has successfully adopted his schemes to fit the skills on his roster this season, MU's inability to defend and score on the blocks and rebound consistently will remain a major hurdle in leapfrogging into the top tier of the BIG EAST. Mercifully Williams has one more scholarship to fill for next season and the pressure is on to land a quality big man who can contribute immediately.

VANDER BLUE TO MARQUETTE

Todd Rosiak is reporting that Vander Blue, who de-committed from UW@Madison, has now committed to Marquette:

In a twist that is sure to add even more spice to what has already become a heated rivalry between in-state rivals, Madison Memorial star Vander Blue on Sunday orally committed to play for the Marquette Golden Eagles, roughly five months after announcing he wouldn't follow through on an oral commitment to play for the Wisconsin Badgers.

Blue, a 6-foot-4 senior guard, took an official visit to MU over the weekend, and was in attendance for 'MU Madness' at the Al McGuire Center on Friday night. Decked out from head to toe in MU gear, Blue appeared to be at home and enjoying himself as he took in the fesitivities, which included his best friend, Golden Eagles freshman forward Jeronne Maymon.

For more on the story, check out IWB's Sports Blog for plenty of comments from Blue and his mom.

As a consensus Top 40 recruit (if not higher), Vander joins fellow Top 100 recruit Jamail Jones in the 2010 recruiting class. Coach Buzz Williams and Marquette have locked up five Top 100 recruits in two years. And with two more spots in the 2010 recruiting class available, there may be even more potential yet.

The season approaches

....so here are a host of media reports to keep you updated on Marquette hoops:

Marquette's schedule for the upcoming season is now finalized. That BIG EAST slate is brutal -- starting off with a game at West Virginia on December 29. Rosiak has the news here.

Marquette graduate Dominic James will play the game for a living this winter after agreeing to a contract with Mersin in the Turkish basketball league. Former Tennessee All-American Chris Lofton played for Mersin last season. The "super athletic" James could suit up as soon as next week for his new team. Good luck, Dominic!

Jeff Sagarin's all-time ranking of college basketball programs is a mess and shows what can happen when you become a slave to stats. The guys at Deadspin lay into the most egregious errors while Pat Forde picks it apart as well. MU is ranked #24 all-time by Sagarin -- the highest-rated Jesuit university on the list. Looking to other Jesuit programs --- Georgetown inexplicably falls in at #42. SLU (!!!???) lands at #53, St. Joseph's at #56, Xavier at #59, Betting Central at #73, and San Francisco at #75.

Looking to recruiting, the Sports Bubbler updates the status of MU target Vander Blue. Blue is back on the market after de-committing from Wisconsin-Madison during the summer. Meanwhile the top player in New York City, JayVaughn Pinkston, has MU in his top five. Buzz is also looking at Jordair Jett from Notre Dame Prep (where Lazar Hayward laced'em up). The guys at the NBE Report like MU's chances for Blue and SF Justin Coleman from Virginia.

Finally, media day for MU is scheduled for October 14 and Marquette Madness will kick things off on October 16 at The Al.

Oh --- Al's Run....must. donate. Thanks for your support -- click here to join the effort.

Aaron Bowen Decommits from MU..

Todd Rosiak has reported that Aaron Bowen, a 2010-2011 commit, has backed out of Marquette and re-opened his recruitment.

Rosiak writes...

The primary reason for Bowen's change of heart, Rosebrock said, was the departure of Williams' former assistant, Dale Layer, who was hired as head coach at Liberty University on April 8.

Layer had been the point man in the 6-5 1/2, 180-pound guard's recruitment, which began last fall and ended with Bowen's commitment to MU last Nov. 20.

Discuss here ..

Bowen's Wiki page..

A look back, Marquette's history with Top 100 recruits...Part Three, the 2000s

We're back today with Part Three in our series, this time with a look at what most would call the "Tom Crean Era". Yes, Buzz Williams has been the coach for the final two recruiting classes of the decade, but as I will explain later on, those particular players will not factor in to this analysis.

Coach Crean was here longer than any coach since Al McGuire, and he achieved more success than any since Al, bringing Marquette to the school's first Final Four since winning it all back in 1977. There's been a lot of debate about his recruiting through the years, and whether or not he was able to recruit at the level many people thought he should. You'll have to see if the myths about his recruiting actually hold up as you read the article....and for those who missed the previous installments you can find them here and here.

As always, a few notes before we get to the actual rankings:

• We'll get the legend out of the way early on this one, since it will factor in to a couple of the notes to follow. The services listed are the ones that come into the discussion in this decade, you can go to Part One to see all the services used in this series. Additionally, some of you may know of some other services that ranked Marquette players during this decade like Rise Magazine and CSTV. Unfortunately the accuracy for these services when it comes to the simple things(name, position, class and college choice) is so off that I just couldn't include them in the final analysis. Because of that, the list below may be missing a player or two, but I doubt it. As always, click the picture for a better view.

• It may just be the way I look at it, but I think it is a bit unfair to evaluate players that haven't completed at least two years of their college career . This is especially true with players that may have been injured, or players that came in as back ups early in their career. The only time that isn't really the case is if a particular player is so spectacularly good(or spectacularly bad) that nothing they could do in their final two years would change the analysis(i.e. early entry to the NBA). For that reason, you will not see any analysis of players in the recruiting classes of 2007 and 2008. They are however, listed below.
  

• That also means you will not see any analysis of the Class of 2009 recruits until at least 2013, but I figure I should mention them so you all can see how the class compares to others in the past. Keep in mind that the RSCI ranking listed for these players has not been updated since last fall and likely will not be updated until the final rankings are out from all services sometime in June or July. The other rankings listed for them are current.

• You're going to see some players in this edition that you would not normally think of as Top 100 players because they came to Marquette from a Junior College. In this era with the multitude of services, there are some services that do a combined evaluation of high school and JUCO players together. Since I am factoring that ranking in for the high school players, I decided to include the JUCO players in the discussion even though you would not normally think of them as being part of a Top 100 ranking. On the other hand, I did not include any ranking that was made up solely of JUCO players, since there is no real way to translate that into a high school Top 100 equivalent.

• Remember, transfer players count with the class they came to Marquette with, not necessarily their high school class, and they are evaluated on their entire college career not just their career at Marquette. JUCO players on the other hand are only evaluated on their Marquette careers because it's tough to gauge the level of competition they face in junior college.

• As I mentioned in Part Two, I'm only counting players that actually enrolled or attempted to enroll in classes. Whether they actually went to class, or ever played a game for Marquette doesn't really matter. That means you may see a name that you don't normally think of as a Marquette recruit.

• Because of the way some of the services do their rankings in this era, players that were actually evaluated as Top 100 talent may not have made the Top 100 due to the fact that they went to a Prep School. I'm speaking specifically of Damian Saunders. Scout.com had him as a 4-Star player and the #22 Power Forward in the country coming out of Notre Dame Prep but did not include him in their Top 100, since they only rank high school players. Given the rankings of the players around him on the Power Forward list, it's safe to say that Saunders would have fallen somewhere in the 80-100 range in the Top 100 had they included Prep players. But they didn't, so he doesn't make the list.

• Lastly, and I'm sure that I'm beginning to sound like a broken record, what I'm analyzing is whether or not a player lived up to the hype of a particular ranking or the label of a "Top 100" player in general. If I think a player failed to live up to that ranking, it doesn't mean that he was a bad guy or a terrible player, just that he didn't match what you would expect from a player supposedly of that caliber. In fact, it's really more of a statement on the validity of these type of rankings, and how much weight we should be giving them.

With that out of the way, here are Marquette's Top 100 players in the 2000s, or more specifically from 2000-2006. Click for a better view.

At a glance you can tell that this is quite a few more "Top 100" recruits than in the past. In seven recruiting classes, there are a total of 20 recruits that were ranked, compared to 14 in the 1990s and 12 in the 1980s. The number is a bit inflated due to the inclusion of the JUCO rankings, but even if you take them out there are still more players in seven recruiting classes than there were in either of the previous two decades. Further, if you include the players that will not be evaluated, that number jumps even higher. We'll have to see how these players did in comparison to those that came before.

The Hits(Chronological Order)

• Odartey Blankson - It may not have worked out the way people wanted it to at Marquette, but there's no denying ODB's talent. He started 55 of 58 games during his two years at Marquette averaging 7.3 PPG and 5.8 RPG before transferring to UNLV. In two years at UNLV, Odartey averaged 17.5 PPG and 9.8 RPG. He was named All Mountain West Conference as a senior. Sure it happened against possibly weaker competition, but given what he had shown at Marquette there's a fairly good chance he would have put up similar numbers had he stayed.

• Scott Merritt - One of the most unnecessarily criticized players in recent memory. Maybe he didn't develop into a dominant back to the basket center like some thought he should, but he was an incredibly solid and remarkably consistent player. Merritt fought through a painful shoulder injury and surgery to become the only player in Marquette history to score over 1000 points, grab over 600 rebounds, dish out over 100 assists and block over 100 shots.

• Dwyane Wade - I think I'm going to let this one stand on name value alone. You all know what he did, nothing I can say will capture it properly.

• Travis Diener - Another name that just stands out in the annals of Marquette history. Likely would have been the school's all time leading scorer if he had not suffered multiple injuries his senior year. Despite that, when he left school he was 3rd all time in scoring, 2nd in assists, 1st in 3-Point Field Goals Made, and 1st in 3-Point Field Goals attempted. He also finished in the top 10 in career 3-Point Percentage, Free Throws Made and Free Throw Percentage.

• Steve Novak - Perhaps the greatest shooter in Marquette history, definitely the greatest shooter in modern history. Averaged double figures in points his final three years including leading the team in scoring as a senior. Among the top 15 in scoring, Novak is 1st in every major 3-Point shooting category(FG Made, FG Attempted, FG %) and 1st in Free Throw Percentage. He was Marquette's 2nd Conference USA Freshman of the Year and the first player in Marquette history to be named to the All Big East First Team.

• Robert Jackson - He played only one year at Marquette after transferring from Mississippi State, but what a year it was. Jackson averaged 15.4 PPG and 7.5 RPG, the latter of which lead the team. In his final two years at Mississippi State, Jackson averaged 11.8 PPG and 7.2 RPG, while being named 3rd Team All SEC as a sophomore.
  

• Dominic James, Wesley Matthews, Jerel McNeal - They came in together, they starred together, it just didn't feel right to separate them in the analysis since so much of what they did was about how they played as a unit. The loss to Missouri still stings a bit, and it's a bit hard to believe their Marquette careers are finally over, so I'm going to forgo the analysis on them since we all remember what they did.

• Lazar Hayward - He's already scored over 1200 points and were he to simply duplicate his 2008-09 results next year he'd rank 2nd on the All Time list. More than a scorer, Hayward has led the team in rebounding as the last two years. For his efforts, Hayward was named All Big East 2nd Team as a sophomore, and robbed of that award as a junior. Not only that, but he did all while playing out of his natural position. All the accolades that Hayward received in high school came while he played either the shooting guard or small forward position, and he's spent his entire Marquette career as either a power forward or center.
  

The Misses(Chronological Order)

• Terry Sanders - Not a bad player, but when you are ranked as highly as he was, more is expected. Sanders was a bench player for three years and a starter as a senior. Offensively there were always flashes that he could do more, but whether he couldn't do it consistently or Tom Crean's offense didn't utilize him more, we never got more than flashes. He was a capable rebounder and defender down low. Career averages of 3.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG and 0.3 Blocks in four years.

• Ron Howard - Played in 10 games scoring 16 points before transferring to Valparaiso. Named All Conference Second Team in the Mid-Con in 2005 and 2006. Averaged over 13 PPG and 4 APG his final two years. Those aren't necessarily bad numbers, and he's not a bad player as shown by his nearly making the Milwaukee Bucks roster last summer. But I don't know that production like that in a mid-major conference qualifies as living up to the hype of his ranking when you consider what he did at Marquette. Right now he's a borderline player and I'm willing to be talked out of keeping him here.

• Marshall Williams - Like Alton Mason before him, I'm sure a lot of you are saying who in the world is Marshall Williams? His time with Marquette was incredibly brief, but it did happen and it was enough to put him on this list. For those that don't know, Williams was the best high school player in Wisconsin coming from powerhouse Milwaukee Vincent. He chose NC State out of high school where he posted 5.5 PPG and 2.5 RPG as a freshman. Injury and homesickness led him to transfer to Marquette following his freshman year. He enrolled in and even briefly attended summer school, probably attending more classes than Alton Mason, but that's where his Marquette career ends. The official story was that he didn't want to sit out a year and not play so he chose to attend Vincennes Junior College where he would eligible right away. After a year at Vincennes, he was supposed to return to Marquette, but his scholarship was given away with almost no mention. Instead of coming to Marquette, he briefly attended UW-Green Bay but left before playing a game. He finished his career at NAIA Georgetown College in Kentucky where he was an All Conference player.

• Karon Bradley - Played in 48 games at Marquette where he had a high of 10 career points. After his sophomore season he transferred to Wichita State and averaged 8 PPG and 1.6 APG. He'd come to Marquette with a reputation as an undersized shooting guard who could score points in bunches but never really showed that in college. If it had only happened at Marquette, we could probably write it off due to the fact that he played out of position and was a back up, but given that it continued at WSU, perhaps the hype was too much.

• Dameon Mason - This is really the case of two very different careers in four years, and the latter half was so abysmal that I think he has to be classified as a miss. Mason was a part time starter as a freshman and full time starter as a sophomore at Marquette. His sophomore year he averaged 11.9 PPG and 5.6 RPG and appeared to be on the upswing. That sort of production throughout 4 years would have guaranteed being a hit, but it didn't turn out that way. For reasons that remain unclear, he transferred to LSU after his sophomore year. He was a part time starter as a junior when he averaged 5.4 PPG and 3 RPG. As a senior, he missed time due to injury (migraines, enlarged heart) and played in only 7 games before being declared academically ineligible.

• Brandon Bell - Perhaps Bell's fall started before he ever got to campus. When he committed, in addition to the ranking from Gibbons, Bell was also in the Top 100 at TheInsiders(now Scout.com) and Rivals.com. But by the time his senior season was over he'd dropped considerably. He played in 21 games at MU posting averages of 1.7 PPG and 0.4 APG before taking a medical leave of absence and then transferring prior to his sophomore season. He ended up at Detroit-Mercy where he averaged 6.3 PPG and 2.9 APG as a reserve before his season ended due to injury. That turned out to be the end of his career, as Bell decided not to play his senior season in order to concentrate on getting his degree.

• Marcus Jackson - I'd love to have him as a hit for all the effort he showed and the always fun Point Center experiment, but I just don't think he did enough to be considered one of the Top 40 players in that class. His first year was injury plagued, and he was never able to get on track. As a senior he averaged 3.3 PPG and 8.2 RPG.
  

• Ousmane Barro - Look I love Ousmane Barro for the heart and determination he showed on the court, and he's probably one of the all time great people connected with the University. But career averages of 5.2 PPG and 4.5 RPG, and regression from his junior to senior year just don't cut it for someone who is supposed to be one of the 40 best players in his class. Admittedly, it wasn't his fault, the ranking was just way too high for a kid that just moved to this country and hadn't played high school basketball due to eligibility issues. But we're not here to debate the fairness of the rankings, we're looking at accuracy.

• Mike Kinsella - There may never have been a more snake bitten player in Marquette history. As a freshman at Rice University, he had a stress fracture in his foot and was a medical redshirt. He transferred to Minneapolis Tech Junior College so that he could play while rehabbing his injury and was a first team JUCO All American. It would turn out to be the only healthy season he had in college. In all three years at Marquette, Kinsella missed time do stress fractures in his feet. There were flashes of talent, like the Pittsburgh game his senior year, but injuries and playing style never allowed him to put it together.

• Jamil Lott - Another JUCO All American, Lott was supposed to provide inside toughness to young team his first two years. Instead, he was a part time starter(using the term loosely) that averaged under 3 PPG and 2 RPG for his career. Much of his reputation when he came to Marquette was built on the fact that he played in the fairly weak Mon-Dak conference while in Junior College.
  

So there you have it. While there were definitely more ranked players this time around, the results weren't necessarily any better. Only 10 of 20 "Top 100" recruits managed to live up to the hype that preceded them, for a success rate of 50%. That brings the cumulative rate down just a bit to 68.5%. If I change my mind and include Ron Howard as a hit, that brings the rates up to 55% for this period and 71.4% for the three decades....but I'm not promising I'll do that yet.

Keep in mind though, that we're really only looking at 7 years worth of data right now. If Trevor Mbakwe turns into a stud at Minnesota, if Jimmy Butler develops like we think he will, if the incoming freshman live up to their potential, this could all change greatly.

Stay tuned for Part Four coming in a few days, where we break down the numbers a bit more, and include a player or two that might have been missed the first go round.

A look back, Marquette's history with top 100 recruits...Part One, The 1980s

Last month, apropos of nothing and with no real intent behind it, I made a series of posts over on MUScoop, discussing the success or lack of success of "Top 100" recruits at a few different schools across the country. As the thread wore on, it morphed into a discussion of Marquette's success with "Top 100" recruits since Tom Crean was hired back in 1999.

After much prodding, I agreed to take it one step further, and do a retrospective of "Top 100" recruits at Marquette not just in recent years as we had done in the thread, but as far back as the available information would allow. It took much longer than expected to find all the information I wanted, but I've finally been able to compile it all.

There's a lot of information here, so rather than deluge everyone all at once, I've decided to split this into a series of posts. In this first installment, we'll be looking at the Top 100 recruits of the 1980s, and each future installment will also be done by decade, with a final wrap up to follow.

What I'm looking at in this series at it's most basic level is whether or not a player lived up to the hype of being a "Top 100" recruit. When you hear the term "Top 100 Recruit" there's a certain amount of expectations that come with that label. Much of it is statistics driven. You expect a certain amount of production right away when you see that a player is highly ranked. When an unheralded recruit averages 7 PPG as a freshman you feel like you got a sleeper. When McDonald's All American does it, you think he's a bust.

Having said that, other things factor into the evaluation. Sadly, many of Marquette's top 100 recruits haven't been able to qualify academically or stay eligible once they got in school. While that has nothing to do with their actual basketball ability, it prevents them from living up the expectations that were set coming out of high school, and it negatively impacts their evaluation. Additionally, things like attitude and leadership are factored in as well. They will not be the sole reason a player is evaluated a certain way, but a borderline player may be pushed into one category or another based upon things like team leadership and attitude.

Before we get to the actual rankings, a couple of important notes:

• As you would expect, finding information on rankings from the pre-internet era is extremely tough. For this reason, the rankings shown in these posts go back only as far as 1980 which means we're leaving out a lot of former MU greats.

• I've been able to find quite a bit of information on rankings from the 1980s and 1990s, but obviously there are limitations on what I can get. I'm sure there will be some people that were missed or some rankings that were missed for a particular player. If anyone can provide more information(with actual proof, not just how you remember it) I'd be happy to update the lists.

• What you will see here is really bits and pieces of rankings done by different services throughout the years. Many of the recruiting services that we look at as the main sources of information today weren't around a decade ago, and vice versa. Trying to compare the rankings done by one service in 1984 to the rankings done by another in 2004 is nearly impossible.

• All of the numbers are the final rankings for a player after their senior year, or the final ranking put out by the service during their senior year. That means players like Scott Christopherson, Krunti Hester, Tony Miller etc all of whom were "Top 100" Players at one time in their high school career are not included on this list.

• One thing you will notice is that for some players the ranking will say something like 12th Team rather than giving a specific number. In the old days, several of the services did their rankings like the AP does their All American teams, with first team, second team etc. If you want to find out what ranking that corresponds to, simply multiply the team by 5. For example the 20th team means a player was ranked between 96-100 in that particular class.

• We're looking at whether or not a player lived up to their hype, not just whether or not they lived up to the hype at Marquette. That means that transfer players(in or out) are evaluated on their whole career, not just their Marquette career. Because of that, you will find some players falling in areas that you may not agree with because of how they performed at another institution. Additionally, professional success does play a small part in the evaluation. NOTE: For players that were ranked as top 100 players coming out of high school that attended other schools before transferring to MU, the player is listed with the class that they effectively joined at MU, not their original class. The year they were ranked and the school they initially attended is listed next to the ranking.
  

• Lastly, I've created a legend so that you may more easily understand my abbreviations that are going to follow. There's a lot of different services involved here, and typing them all out each time gets to be a bit tedious. You'll want to consult this when you look at the actual rankings(click the image for a more readable version).
  

Without any further ado, here's the rankings for the 1980s, followed by the analysis...again click the picture for a better view.


Looking at that list, you might be surprised to see that many top 100 players given the results that MU had in the 1980s. The team made the NCAA tournament only three times, and the decade ended with the disastrous Bob Dukiet era. But when you look how that supposed high school talent worked out, maybe the results become a little more understandable.

The Hits(in chronological order)

• Doc Rivers - I'm not sure that any player in the 1980s lived up to their billing more than Doc. A first team Street and Smith's All American, and the first McDonald's All American in Marquette history, Doc was a stud the second he stepped on campus. He held the freshman scoring record for nearly 25 years, and he still holds the record for freshman field goal percentage. He was a Chuck Taylor All American in 1982, and an AP All American in 1983. After three seasons at MU he declared for the NBA draft and played more than a decade in the NBA.

• Dwayne Johnson - The original DJ, his is a tail of both success and regret. On the court, he was great. He averaged 12.3 PPG as a sophomore, and was the team's leading scorer and rebounder as a junior. Unfortunately, he was not as good in the classroom. Prior to his senior season DJ was declared academically ineligible and suspended for his senior year. He transferred to UW-Whitewater, where he was a 2nd team All American, and the WIAC player of the year in his only season.

• Mandy Johnson - He didn't do much scoring until his senior year, but with the talent around him, it wasn't necessary. Mandy was an efficient offensive player, who led the team in field goal percentage as a sophomore, but more importantly he was the floor general allowing the guys around him to get their points while he ran the offense. Really though, he made his mark as one of the best defensive guards in MU history. He finished his career second in MU history in steals, and held that position until this season when he was surpassed by Jerel McNeal. He still holds the MU record for steals as a senior, and is in the top 10 for the sophomore and junior records.
  

• Kerry Trotter - MU's second McDonald's All American, Trotter may not have totally lived up to that billing, but he still turned out to be a very good player, worthy of a top 100 ranking. He scored in double figures his final three years at MU, including a high of 13.6PPG as a senior, and was the team's leading scorer and rebounder as a junior. He played professionally in Europe and was twice the MVP of the Belgian league.
  

• Mark Anglavar - One of the great shooters in MU history. When his career ended in 1991, he was the leader in 3-Point Field Goals Made, 3-Point Field Goal Percentage, and he was the leader in every single season 3-Point statistic. He's since been surpassed by other players, but make no mistake there were few that could shoot the ball like him in MU history. Not only that, but he's still in the top 10 for Freshman assists despite not actually being a point guard.
  

The Misses(again chronological order)

• Lloyd Moore - There may not have been a bigger miss in MU history. Coming out of high school, nearly everyone thought Moore would be great. In addition to the Street and Smith ranking, he was an Adidas and Parade All American as a senior and many predicted that Moore would be the next great MU big man. Instead, he was the biggest bust in MU history, both literally and figuratively. He tore a ligament in his knee prior to his freshman campaign which resulted in an extended absence. When he returned he was so out of shape that he managed to only play in 15 games, where he averaged less than 2 PPG and 2 RPG. He transferred prior to his sophomore year, and was a decent player at Rutgers for two years before he was dismissed from the team for failure to keep his weight under control.
  

• Tony Reeder - Never lived up to the billing of a top 65 player while at MU. His only significant accomplishment is being among the All Time Top 10 in blocked shots as freshman, with a whopping 15 blocks. Unfortunately it didn't get better after that. He averaged under 8 PPG as a junior, and was averaging under 7 PPG as a senior when he was declared academically ineligible, ending his disappointing career.
  

• Tom Copa - Probably the toughest call of this decade, I'm sure some will argue this point with me, but hear me out. Yes Copa scored almost 1000 points and grabbed over 500 rebounds, but when you are ranked among the top 65 players in a high school class, more is expected. He never averaged more than 8.5 PPG, and his scoring declined every year from his sophomore to senior year. Further, his rebounding went down from 5.5 RPG to 4.6 RPG as well. At best, he was serviceable in college, posting career averages of 8.2 PPG and 4.7 RPG, but serviceable isn't what you're looking for when you get a top 65 player. To his credit, Copa blossomed after college, parlaying his success in Europe into a back up role with the San Antonio Spurs during the 1991-92 season. I'm open to arguments on changing him to a "hit", but it's going to take a lot of convincing.
  

• Walter Downing - MU just missed out on Downing the first time around, losing a close recruiting battle to Ray Meyer and DePaul. A McDonald's All American in high school, Downing never approached that sort of success at DePaul or at MU. He averaged 7.5 PPG and 3.5 RPG as a part time player at MU.
  

• Gerald Posey - A Prop 48 casualty as a freshman, Posey was supposed to contribute right away once he became eligible as a sophomore. Instead, he had disagreements with Bob Dukiet which led to a famed incident where he stormed off the court during warm ups prior to the St. Thomas game in December 1988. By January, he was gone, transferring to Division III Trenton State College in New Jersey.
  

• Corey Floyd - Perhaps the final nail in Bob Dukiet's coffin, Floyd was expected to team with Posey as the back court of the future starting in 1988. Like Posey, he was from New Jersey and had been a great high school player. Unfortunately, the similarities did not end there. He too had academic issues, but instead of being a Prop 48 player, he was not admitted to Marquette and had to spend two years at Hutchinson Community College in Kansas to meet NCAA eligibility requirements. He then spent two years as a back up at Providence, where his only on the court contribution of note was participation in a brawl against Rhode Island that led to a suspension.
  

So there you have it. As you can see, the top 100 rankings weren't exactly a great predictor of success when it came to Marquette recruits in the 1980s. Out of 12 recruits, only 5 really panned out, for a success rating of 41.6%. You'll have to stay tuned for the future posts to see if this rating improves as the years go by. I'm saving my conclusions until the final part of this series, we'll have to wait and see if my theory holds up in the future years.

Obviously, this is just my way of doing it, there is no real quantitative analysis for this kind of subject. It's tough to define living up to the hype, but as Potter Stewart said, "I know it when I see it". Feel free to disagree...