Last year, in early January, I wrote an article wondering if Defense was Marquette's Achilles Heel. It's worth re-reading, but here is an update.
Teams that are elite have good defenses. In particular, over the past five years, here are the average defensive rankings of teams at each level of the NCAA tourney.
- Won their first game (#34)
- Sweet Sixteen (#26)
- Elite Eight (#20)
- Final Four (#17)
- Marquette has about a 93% chance of finishing with 11+ wins (5-5 down the stretch)
- About an 80% of finishing with 12+ wins (6-4)
- ~50% of finishing with 13+ wins
- and for you real optimists, about a 20% of finishing with 14 wins or more