"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

MU, Gtown, Syracuse and Seton Hall claim 14 of top 25 BE players as MU goes for sole possession of 3rd place tonight

No one would have predicted that Marquette and South Florida would be playing for sole possession of 3rd place in the Big East tonight. Marquette enters the Bradley Center tonight for a 7 p.m. start with three of the Top 25 players in the conference this year, a feat matched by Syracuse, Georgetown and Seton Hall that leaves the other 12 teams in the conference with only 11 between them.

Kevin Jones nudges out Jae Crowder in a two-way race for conference MVP in the Total Value Top 25 listed below, but if the Mountaineers are to stay near the top of the standings this year then Jones will have to carry them by himself as their next best two players barely crack the conference Top 50. West Virginia's Truck Bryant (39th) and freshman point guard Jaborie Hinds (47th) are having very good but not dominant seasons. The Top 25 most valuable players to date:

RnkTop 25 Big East PlayersTeamHtOffenseDefenseTotal
1Kevin JonesWest Virginia6-foot-88.02-2.2010.21
2Jae CrowderMarquette6-foot-65.44-3.849.28
3Jeremy LambConnecticut6-foot-56.02-0.936.95
4Jason ClarkGeorgetown6-foot-24.29-2.376.66
5Dion WaitersSyracuse6-foot-43.74-2.616.36
6Hollis ThompsonGeorgetown6-foot-85.18-1.106.28
7Fuquan EdwinSeton Hall6-foot-62.83-3.426.25
8Jordan TheodoreSeton Hall6-foot-04.90-0.985.88
9Shabazz NapierConnecticut6-foot-04.71-1.075.78
10Herb PopeSeton Hall6-foot-82.60-3.085.69
11Kris JosephSyracuse6-foot-74.03-1.655.68
12Gorgui DiengLouisville6-foot-102.44-3.215.65
13Sean KilpatrickCincinnati6-foot-43.98-1.165.14
14Jack CooleyNotre Dame6-foot-93.60-1.475.07
15Maalik WaynsVillanova6-foot-24.920.004.92
16Otto PorterGeorgetown6-foot-82.27-2.604.87
17Davante GardnerMarquette6-foot-83.47-1.334.80
18Kyle KuricLouisville6-foot-43.40-1.244.64
19James SoutherlandSyracuse6-foot-82.89-1.614.50
20Ashton GibbsPittsburgh6-foot-24.410.004.41
21Bryce CottonProvidence6-foot-14.360.004.36
22Henry SimsGeorgetown6-foot-102.43-1.844.27
23Jerian GrantNotre Dame6-foot-54.16-0.034.18
24Darius Johnson-OdomMarquette6-foot-23.59-0.594.18
25Brandon TricheSyracuse6-foot-43.32-0.844.17

Quick Explanation – then the Top 100 players by team:
Total Value is the measurement of the percentage of points a player averages adding to his team’s score with offense and subtracting from the opponents' score with defense on a given night. The calculation that Crowder adds 5.44% to Marquette’s score and takes 3.84% of the opponents points away with defense (Total Value 9.28%) indicates that Marquette would be projected to drop from a 24-7 team with Crowder to a 16-15 team without him if going by results to date and Pomeroy’s projections for the rest of the year. The eight games that switch from wins to losses if Crowder is not playing are; Washington, 2nd Norfolk State, Villanova and Pitt as well as projected scores for Seton Hall, Notre Dame, and 2nd Villanova and Georgetown games. Only Kevin Jones is more valuable in the Big East, and noone else is close.

Thankfully the engineer just finished the program to run Total Value this week, so I am no longer risking mistakes on long spreadsheets as I pinpoint the following three precise calculations:

1. Offensive Value Add was first covered by Luke Winn at Sports Illustrated, then picked up on by ESPN, and finally adopted as a building block for other calculations including a recent one from Basketball Prospectus.

2. The Defensive Value Subtract is equally important, and has been perfected in recent months by an engineer building my program, but is not nearly as easily grasped and I don't plan to detail the formulas further. However, while the overall team Defensive Value Subtracts are very accurate, you must use common sense to adjust for on-ball defense and rotations, within the team up to 1% plus or minus per player. For example, if you adjusted DJOs defense by 1% for his much improved on-ball defense, and subtracted 1% from Gardner's defensive rating for slow rotations, you end up with DJO as the 13th best player in the Big East and Davante Gardner as the 28th best.

3. The NBA Predictor is an adjustment I am finalizing to measure not the impact on the college team, but how much impact the player is likely to have if taken at the next level, as not all great college players can translate their game to the pros but others do surprisingly well. However, this third part of the program is intended for a much smaller audience so won’t appear here. There are NBA indicators with DJO that make him a potential first round pick, even though his high turnovers and low steals hold his rating back at the college level.

The first two factors give a very accurate account of every player in the league.

While certainly Syracuse has the inside track on the championship, in the end they do not appear as dominant to me as Ohio State, Kentucky or even UNC and Duke by the end of the year. If Marquette can win at Villanova Saturday, a toss-up game due to Nova’s strong offensive rebounding that often gives MU trouble, I believe we can legitimately consider the possibility that MU could win the Big East regular season title in a year in which the conference is down from the past three years.

Here are the Top 100 players grouped by team, starting with tonight’s opponent South Florida. I also list the projected final conference record based on Pomeroy.

RnkMarquette (Proj 12-6)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
2Jae Crowder6-foot-65.44-3.849.28
17Davante Gardner6-foot-83.47-1.334.80
24Darius Johnson-Odom6-foot-23.59-0.594.18
51Jamil Wilson6-foot-71.38-0.672.05
55Vander Blue6-foot-40.53-1.441.97
61Todd Mayo6-foot-31.900.001.90
74Junior Cadougan6-foot-10.72-0.661.37
85Chris Otule6-foot-110.00-0.860.86
91Derrick Wilson6-foot-00.10-0.370.47
94Jamail Jones6-foot-60.00-0.360.36

RnkSouth Florida (Proj 9-9)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
29Toarlyn Fitzpatrick6-foot-81.74-2.003.74
34Ron Anderson6-foot-82.83-0.503.33
42Hugh Robertson6-foot-61.78-0.812.59
76Augustus Gilchrist6-foot-100.81-0.441.25
83Shaun Noriega6-foot-40.950.000.95
84Jawanza Poland6-foot-40.64-0.280.92
95LaVonte Dority6-foot-10.350.000.35

RnkCincinnati (Proj 11-7)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
13Sean Kilpatrick6-foot-43.98-1.165.14
31Cashmere Wright6-foot-01.89-1.593.48
40Jaquon Parker6-foot-32.48-0.272.75
41Yancy Gates6-foot-91.43-1.242.66
45Dion Dixon6-foot-31.72-0.722.44
46Justin Jackson6-foot-80.59-1.782.37
93Jermaine Sanders6-foot-50.360.000.36

RnkConnecticut (Proj 10-8)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
3Jeremy Lamb6-foot-56.02-0.936.95
9Shabazz Napier6-foot-04.71-1.075.78
50Tyler Olander6-foot-91.68-0.372.06
60Ryan Boatright6-foot-01.82-0.091.91
73Niels Giffey6-foot-71.30-0.081.38
80Alex Oriakhi6-foot-90.74-0.321.07

RnkDePaul (Proj 4-14)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
36Brandon Young6-foot-
48Jeremiah Kelly6-foot-
67Krys Faber6-foot-101.30-0.311.61
86Cleveland Melvin6-foot-80.44-0.370.81

RnkGeorgetown (Proj 13-5)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
4Jason Clark6-foot-24.29-2.376.66
6Hollis Thompson6-foot-85.18-1.106.28
16Otto Porter6-foot-82.27-2.604.87
22Henry Sims6-foot-102.43-1.844.27
53Nate Lubick6-foot-81.16-0.842.00
58Markel Starks6-foot-21.940.001.94
88Mikael Hopkins6-foot-90.47-0.030.49

RnkLouisville (Proj 9-9)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
12Gorgui Dieng6-foot-102.44-3.215.65
18Kyle Kuric6-foot-43.40-1.244.64
28Chris Smith6-foot-23.36-0.413.77
38Russ Smith6-foot-00.23-2.672.90
52Chane Behanan6-foot-70.37-1.672.04
71Peyton Siva5-foot-110.00-1.451.45
87Rakeem Buckles6-foot-70.00-0.520.52
98Elisha Justice5-foot-100.00-0.270.27

RnkNotre Dame (Proj 9-9)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
14Jack Cooley6-foot-93.60-1.475.07
23Jerian Grant6-foot-54.16-0.034.18
69Eric Atkins6-foot-11.530.001.53
79Scott Martin6-foot-80.00-1.131.13
92Joey Brooks6-foot-60.450.000.45

RnkPitt (Projected 4-14)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
20Ashton Gibbs6-foot-24.410.004.41
43Nasir Robinson6-foot-52.510.002.51
44Lamar Patterson6-foot-52.460.002.46
56Talib Zanna6-foot-91.970.001.97
57Dante Taylor6-foot-91.77-0.181.95
66Travon Woodall5-foot-111.680.001.68
81Khem Birch6-foot-90.53-0.501.03
89J.J. Moore6-foot-60.490.000.49

RnkProvidence (Proj 5-13)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
21Bryce Cotton6-foot-14.360.004.36
72Bilal Dixon6-foot-90.77-0.671.44
75Vincent Council6-foot-21.300.001.30
97Ron Giplaye6-foot-60.00-0.310.31
99Gerard Coleman6-foot-

RnkRutgers (Proj 8-10)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
26Dane Miller6-foot-60.94-2.933.87
59Mike Poole6-foot-50.05-1.861.91
62Myles Mack5-foot-90.77-1.071.83
63Gilvydas Biruta6-foot-80.50-1.251.75
82Jerome Seagears6-foot-10.990.000.99
100Austin Johnson6-foot-

RnkSeton Hall (Proj 11-7)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
7Fuquan Edwin6-foot-62.83-3.426.25
8Jordan Theodore6-foot-04.90-0.985.88
10Herb Pope6-foot-82.60-3.085.69
49Patrik Auda6-foot-91.81-0.272.08

RnkSt. John's (Proj 4-14)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
35D'Angelo Harrison6-foot-32.72-0.523.25
70Sir'Dominic Pointer6-foot-60.00-1.481.48
90Amir Garrett6-foot-60.00-0.470.47

RnkSyracuse (Proj 15-3)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
5Dion Waiters6-foot-43.74-2.616.36
11Kris Joseph6-foot-74.03-1.655.68
19James Southerland6-foot-82.89-1.614.50
25Brandon Triche6-foot-43.32-0.844.17
27C.J. Fair6-foot-82.36-1.483.84
30Scoop Jardine6-foot-22.30-1.313.61
32Fab Melo7-foot-01.24-2.193.43
54Baye Moussa Keita6-foot-101.29-0.701.98
64Michael Carter-Williams6-foot-50.63-1.061.70
68Rakeem Christmas6-foot-90.67-0.931.60

RnkVillanova (Proj 7-11)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
15Maalik Wayns6-foot-24.920.004.92
33Mouphtaou Yarou6-foot-102.67-0.753.43
37Dominic Cheek6-foot-
77James Bell6-foot-
96Achraf Yacoubou6-foot-40.330.000.33

RnkWest Virginia (Proj 13-5)HtOffenseDefenseTotal
1Kevin Jones6-foot-88.02-2.2010.21
39Darryl Bryant6-foot-22.850.002.85
47Jabarie Hinds5-foot-111.42-0.842.26
65Deniz Kilicli6-foot-90.83-0.861.69
78Aaron Brown6-foot-

1 comment:

Brewtown Andy said...

If I'm reading the standings right, the winner tonight ties Georgetown at 6-2 for 2nd place instead of sole possession of 3rd.