We're only a few days away from the opening of Marquette's season, but it still feels like there are plenty of questions that need to be answered. To address these questions, we've brought the Cracked Sidewalks crew together, including one of our regular guest contributors, Dr. Blackheart. Here's the first query:
How will Marquette replace Jimmy Butler?
Alan: You don't replace a guy like JFB, at least not with one player. I think that you'll see Jamil take up a big part of his scoring and rebounding, and hopefully Jae and DJO can also see an uptick to offset Jimmy's loss. My real concern is on defense. I think Vander needs to step forward as the guy who can guard anyone. He may not start, but he can get 25 minutes off the bench as a stopper at multiple positions. If that happens, we should move on without missing a beat.
Dr. Blackheart: You cannot replace his "smarts", but Jamil Wilson is more athletic, and more versatile offensively with his perimeter shooting, passing, and dribbling. The combination of Wilson, Crowder, Otule, and Gardner will have to deliver on the JFB intangibles.
James: Likely cannot replace his versatility and leadership. He was a 1st round draft choice and I don't see another one on the bench to take his place. Wilson will be part of the answer. Crowder will be the other part. I think Jae has a monster year.
John: Jamil Wilson. Marquette was terrible on defense last year until Butler started moving around the court to guard the likes of Kemba Walker and Tu Holloway. At 6'7" with length, Jamil gives Buzz the same kind of option to come up with a scheme to improve the defense. While on the court as a FRESHMAN at Oregon, Jamil was actually a better rebounder both offensively and defensively than Jimmy was as a SENIOR (grabbed 8.5% of Oregon's misses to Jimmy's 8.2% of Marquette's, and 15%-12% advantage on defensive rebounds). Jamil was just as good a shot blocker as Jae (3.3% of opponent's shots) which is three times as many blocks as Jimmy and means MU will have two of the best shot-blocking forwards in the country along with the best shot-blocking center in the Big East, which makes it more likely MU can hold down opponents FG percentages even with the guards going for steals. Obviously Marquette cannot replace Jimmy's ability to get to the line, but Jamil could replace him where MU needs it even more -- on defense. The fact that Jamil steps into Jimmy's role is the reason that the improvement of all the returning players should make MU a better team this year than last.
Kevin: You don't replace guys, one for one, the other players on the team pick up the slack. DJO and Jae add 2-3 ppg, Vander (please, please, please) adds 3-4 ppg. Otule, Gardner, and Wilson chip in.
Rob: I don't think they will. It's too difficult to replace one of the most efficient players in MU history, who could also be dialed in consistently every night. However, MU didn't exactly replace Hayward either (Crowder was not the same), nor did they replace the Three Amigos. To me, a more interesting question is how will MU look differently this year and still be great offensively. Because you know MU will still have a great offense this year.
Tim: Logic says Jamil Wilson. Wilson was the best athlete in the program last year, and a full year of acclimation should make him an immediate impact player. That said, Butler won't be replaced -- the team will play differently. With DJO and Crowder, MU already has two go-to scorers and Wilson's flexibility will create fits for the opposition. Realizing that last season MU had one of the least experienced rosters in the Big East & now has one of the most veteran squads, replacing graduates -- even one as talented as JFB -- is not a concern.
Tuesday, November 08, 2011
Preseason Roundtable: Replacing Butler
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Looking ahead -- Jamil Wilson, 2009 and beyond
Jamil Wilson of Racine has emerged as one of the nation's best players in the class of 2009, and is garnering strong interest from Michigan State, Duke, UCLA, and Kansas -- each of whom will host Wilson on an official visit. Texas, Tennessee and Purdue are also in the mix. Given the proximity to MU and UW, Wilson is not expected to take an official visit to either in-state program. Sam Webb from Detnews.com talked with Wilson about MSU and filed this report.
Wilson would be a huge get for Buzz Williams and Marquette, particularly given the premier programs the kid is interested in. And let's face it, a major talent influx by kids like Jamil Wilson must be in order if MU expects to remain a fixture in the NCAA tournament.
After what should be a successful 2008-2009 campaign (presuming Jerel McNeal returns), Buzz Williams has a number of gaps to fill if he hopes to strengthen a decidedly weak roster. Right now, Williams has a 2009-2010 group built almost exclusively with role players. Thankfully, Williams has early playing time to offer prospects as he closes out 2008 recruiting and looks ahead to 2009 and beyond.
With props to the slick scholarship table over at the MUScoop Wiki, here's a quick look at the current state 2009-2010 roster (walk-ons excluded):
Seniors: Lazar Hayward, David Cubillan, Maurice Acker
Juniors: Trevor Mbakwe, Patrick Hazel, Joseph Fulce, Jimmy Butler
Sophs: Chris Otule
Frosh: Erik Williams (verbal commitment)
By any measure, this roster won't get it done in the Big East. The talent needs a major upgrade. The Marquette basketball program will be at a crossroads in 2009. Will the program take a major step back, or will coach Williams right the ship with an influx of high-ceiling talent to populate the freshmen and sophomore classes?
Landing the uber-talented Erik Williams, who despite missing most of his junior season wowed scouts and projects to be a four-star talent, is a fine way to start the upgrading process. Here are some other likely recruiting priorities for MU in 2009:
- Pure point guard who can play big minutes immediately. MU was staring this same situation in the face four years ago when Crean landed James to replace Diener.
- Dead-eye shooter. With the three-point line moving back, it;s time for an upgrade.
- Skilled big man. Mbakwe could be a fine power forward if he's not forced into the middle because of a thin frontcourt roster.
- Jamil Wilson. Hey, a guy can dream right? Wilson will be tough to land but if he signs on with MU, the program immediately moves up a notch.
Sunday, July 04, 2010
Does Jamil Wilson = 30 wins in 2012?
Last year Syracuse and West Virginia were the two Big East teams who hit the 30-win mark, and the addition of Jamil Wilson gives MU the opportunity to do the same and be a true contender in 2012.
MU projects to win at least 29 games in 2012 based on the 10 players who will have eligibility left, and would be projected to top 30 wins with even one additional 4-star recruit for next season. As shown in past posts, the following is the table of the average progression of Big East players based on their star-ratings:
How many wins to expect based on a player's year and stars
| Stars | Fr. | So. | Jr. | Sr. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2 Stars | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| 3-star | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 3.2 |
| 4-star | 1.7 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 4.4 |
| 5-star | 2.4 | 4.7 | 6.3 | NA |
The addition of 4-star forward Jamil Wilson joining as a sophomore skyrockets MUs projected wins for the next few years, even assuming he is only an "average" 4-star as rated by Rivals, rather than a player who just missed being a 5-star as suggested by the other services. Based on stars, season, and Win Credits in the past year from returning players, MU projects to equal the 25 win performance of 2008 and 2009 in the upcoming season:
Blue 2.4 + Butler 5.8 + Buycks 2.5 + Cadougan 1.7 + Jae Crowder 2.1 + Frozena 0.0 + Fulce 1.1 + Gardner 0.3 + DJO 4.8 + Jones 1.7 + Otule 0.6 + Smith 0.8 + Williams 1.3 = 25.1 projected wins in 2011. If Jamil were given eligibility this season, then MU would project to win 28 games this season.
However, the addition of Jamil after sitting out a transfer year projects to put MU in the national elite:
Blue 4.7 + Cadougan 3.1 + Crowder 3.2 + Gardner 1.2 + DJO 5.3 + Jones 3.1 + Otule 0.8 + Smith 2.0 + Williams 2.3 + Wilson 3.1 = 28.8 projected wins in 2012 PLUS WHATEVER THE THREE NEW RECRUITS WOULD ADD.
Buzz has now put together four big JC stars (DJO, Butler, Buycks and Crowder) with five players rated 4-star or higher (Blue, Cadougan, Jones, Wilson and Williams). Even the two new 3-stars are looking a lot like four stars as Reggie Smith just missing a 4-star rating to be one of top few 3-stars in the country, and Davante Gardner was selected ahead of 4-star players for the Virginia All-State team.
The Win Credits system projected 19 wins last season, which MU exceeded by three wins. But 2012 always looked like the huge opportunity, since 5-star players like Vander Blue usually take over their sophomore season. However, the addition of Jamil Wilson truly gives the team a shot at their first Big East title and a deep NCAA run.
While this system gives a good measurement of the impact of players year-to-year, it also does not account for the team balance that MU now has. Subjective factors such as reports of Chris Otule's big improvement and the fact that Gardner finally gives MU size and a guy who can catch the ball inside and convert from 12 feet or the foul line are not factored into the projected wins.
Nor is the fact that MU looked like world beaters in the Disney classic last year due to their ability to steal the ball at will, only to have to slow games down dramatically due to the bench being so short. With another 6-foot-7 star in Wilson, MU now has a team with ample height across the front line in various combinations, as well as the depth to rotate two lines that can press full court or half without the threat of collapsing like they did against Florida State last year.
The following is the updated table with the additional of Jamil:
Projected Wins from each player from 2010 to 2013 seasons
| Player | 2010 actual | 2010 proj | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Acker, Grad G, 0 Stars | 2.7 | 0.8 | G | G | G |
| Vander Blue, Fr G, 5 Stars | HS | HS | 2.4 | 4.7 | 6.3 |
| Jimmy Butler, Sr. G-F, 0 Stars | 5.3 | 2.0 | 5.8 | G | G |
| Dwight Buycks, Sr. G, 3 Stars | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | G | G |
| Junior Cadougan, So. G, 4 Stars | 0.0 | RS | 1.7 | 3.1 | 4.3 |
| Jae Crowder, Jr. F, 4 Stars | JC | JC | 2.1 | 3.2 | G |
| David Cubillan, Grad G, 0 Stars | 1.7 | 1.3 | G | G | G |
| Robert Frozena, Sr. G, 0 Stars | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | G | G |
| Joseph Fulce, Sr. F, 3 Stars | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | G | G |
| Lazar Hayward, Grad F, 4 Stars | 6.6 | 6.4 | G | G | G |
| Davante Gardner, Fr.. C, 3 Stars | HS | HS | 0.3 | 1.2 | 2.1 |
| Darius Johnson-Odom, Jr. G, 3 Stars | 3.5 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 5.3 | G |
| Jamail Jones, Fr. F, 4 Stars | HS | HS | 1.7 | 3.1 | 4.3 |
| Jeronne Maymon, So. G-F, 4 Stars | 0.0 | 1.7 | T | T | T |
| Youssaupha Mbao, So. C, 3 Stars | 0.0 | 0.3 | T | T | T |
| Chris Otule, Jr. C, 2 Stars | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Reggie Smith, Fr. G, 3 Stars | HS | HS | 0.8 | 2.0 | 3.0 |
| Erik Williams, So. F, 4 Stars | 0.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 3.2 |
| Jamil Wilson, So. F, 4 Stars | Ore | Ore | RS | 3.1 | 4.3 |
| Projected Wins on known roster | 22.0 | 19.0 | 25.1 | 28.8+++ | 28.5+++++ |
THE BOTTOM LINE
Key = a number indicates how many wins the player is projected to give MU that season, HS is a player in high school that year, G indicates graduated by that year, T indicates transferred out of MU, RS indicates red shirt season, JC indicates in Junior College that season. Each + sign by the season projection indicates additional wins for that many open scholarships to be signed, so the 28.8 indicates that is the total projected wins for the 10 players listed with three additional players still to be added to the rooster.
Monday, December 31, 2012
Keys to a Marquette NCAA Bid
Despite having what may be his most physically talented team in his five years at Marquette, many fans seem pessimistic on this team's odds of making the tournament this year. Regardless of talent, it seems this team is giving its faithful more questions than answers. Will Trent Lockett find his Arizona State form? Can Junior Cadougan limit his turnovers? Does Jamil Wilson have the ability to translate his physical gifts into on-court dominance? And can a Marquette team that struggled with cupcakes hope to manage their Big East schedule?
I'm still confident Marquette can battle through and reach the NCAA Tournament. Not only that, I think this team could still make a deep run in March. The necessary pieces are there, but those pieces have to work together to make that possible. Here are my keys to Marquette finishing the season strong:
1) Manage the Point: Junior has turned the ball over 18 times in the past 4 games as opposed to 16 turnovers in the first 8 games. Even still, he made key plays that led to wins against LSU and NCCU. Earlier in the season, Buzz alluded to Derrick Wilson showing starting ability but sticking with Junior out of loyalty. When Junior is faltering, Buzz has to be willing to give DW the keys. Per 40 minutes, Junior is averaging 4.3 turnovers to Derrick's 2.1, but their turnover rate is actually fairly similar: Junior turns the ball over 26.6% of the time he has the ball (slightly high for a PG) while Derrick turns it over 22.7% of the time (about average). The difference of the per 40 numbers and turnover rate indicates DW is more willing to share ball-handling duties with the other guys on the court. While Junior is scoring more and assisting at a higher rate, his proclivity for turning the ball over puts is par of the reason Marquette has needed late-game heroics. Buzz should be quicker with the hook to force Junior to understand that turning the ball over won't be tolerated. Hopefully better ball management will lessen the need for those heroics.
2) Step Up, Jamil: Jamil Wilson has the highest offensive rating of players that average 60% of the team's minutes, but is fourth of those players in terms of usage behind Cadougan, Blue, and Lockett. In the NCCU broadcast, Jim McIlvaine talked about how Stanton Kidd, the Eagles' best offensive player, needed to shoot because by being selfish he gave his team the best chance at winning. The same could be said for Jamil. He can score many ways but often passes up good looks and is unwilling to take over a game. In the opening 30 minutes against Green Bay, Wilson scored 14 points on 5/9 shooting including 4/5 behind the arc. In the final 10 minutes, he took only one shot, a dunk that he made. With the game on the line, the best players have to be willing to play. Jamil has to be willing to take the ball as he did consistently through the first 30 minutes and continue scoring and step on the opposition's throat. Instead, he allowed others to shoot and Marquette went 3/10 from the field over the final 10 minutes with one of the three makes being his basket. As Jim McIlvaine inferred your best players need to play. In the case of Jamil Wilson, that's him.
3) Manage the Schedule: The first 8 games will be key. Marquette takes on Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Louisville on the road, games in which their odds of winning per Pomeroy are never better than 19%. That means winning at home early is important. Marquette should look to win at least 4/5 at home in that span against Connecticut, Georgetown, Seton Hall, Providence, and South Florida. After that, Marquette only plays three games against Pomeroy top-40 teams and all three are at home (Pitt, Syracuse, Notre Dame). While they do play on the road in 6 of their last 10 games, only one is against a team in Pomeroy's top-80 (#43 Georgetown). This is a schedule set up to get MU to the tournament.
There are, of course, other questions. Will Lockett and Jake Thomas start producing offensively like they did at their previous stops? Can Vander Blue find consistency? Where will Todd Mayo fit in? Can the defense start stringing together consecutive stops? But those I'm not as worried about. Those are all things that should improve with time, and if not, there are other players that can make up for the deficiencies.
Thursday, February 01, 2007
Recruit Report: Racine's Jamil Wilson
The town of Racine has produced plenty of basketball talent over the years -- Jim Chones, Jim McIlvaine, Nick Van Exel, Sharif Chambliss and Caron Butler are just the tip of the iceberg in that discussion. There's more talent on the horizon - - 6'6" Jamil Wilson is the latest high-ceiling player to emerge from Racine and he's just a sophomore.
Robb Luehr of the Racine Journal-Times penned a feature on Wilson for today's paper. In addition to MU, Wisconsin and Iowa State are mentioned as programs with strong interest in the talented sophomore. More impressively (and far more important), Wilson is helping his mother through the fight of her life right now.
According Wishoops.com, Wilson is the top sophomore in the state and likely one of the best in the nation in that class. Marquette coaches are aggressively courting Wilson, who is in no hurry to make his collegiate choice.
Also, this article recaps one of Jamil's best games of the 2006-2007 season from just a few weeks ago.
Marquette does not yet have a commitment for the incoming freshman class of 2009. Currently here is what we know MU's roster might look like in 2009 -- and there's plenty of room for a talented small forward like Wilson to make a sizeable impact early at Marquette.
Seniors:
Maurice Acker
Lazar Hayward
David Cubillan
Juniors:
Scott Christopherson
Damian Saunders
Trevor Mbakwe
Patrick Hazel
Sophomores:
Nick Williams
2008 recruit TBD
2008 recruit TBD
Freshmen:
2009 recruit TBD
2009 recruit TBD
2009 recruit TBD
Monday, August 25, 2008
Jamil Wilson now a legitimate possibility?
With the surprise departure of Trevor Mbakwe from the basketball team over the weekend, does this mean Jamil Wilson's chances of ending up in blue and gold have increased significantly?
I'll say a speculative yes to that. Though MU continue to recruit Michael Snaer, one of the top recruits in the country, there is plenty of competition for his services and geographical prejudices to potentially stifle his commitment. Jamil Wilson, on the other hand, as recently as two weeks ago still listed Marquette in his final list despite MU not having any scholarships available. Michigan State has recruited him hard, but it seemed MU was at or near the top of his list for months when Tom Crean was still the head coach. Now, with a spot open and Buzz Williams desire to balance out the scholarships by position, this could mean Wilson's MU opportunity has taken a huge step in a positive direction.
Wilson still plans on waiting until March of 2009 to announce his school of choice, but one has to wonder if the latest turn of events puts MU back near the top for this SE Wisconsin player. Or will Coach Williams sign someone else in the meantime?
Monday, November 12, 2012
Value Add picks Jamil as SOG - but it is close as MU shows balance in 84-63 opening win over Colgate
In a scene that may be familiar later in the season, the player with the biggest numbers on the court (Colgate's Murphy Burnatowski) was wearing an opposing jersey, but MU showed the incredible depth that should characterize this team. Burnatowski torched MU for a 20/10 game, much as he did to Illinois in Colgate's home opener, but MU prevailed 84-63 with 11 players adding Value according to Value Add.
| Mount St. Marys | Value Add | Def Sub | Total Value | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamil Wilson, F | 9.8 | -1.7 | 11.5 | 15 Pts on 7 shots, only 1 DR |
| Trent Lockett, G | 4.7 | -4.3 | 9.0 | 7 Reb & 5 St |
| Juan Anderson, F | 4.9 | -2.6 | 7.5 | 7 DR & 2 St |
| Davante Gardner, F | 6.0 | -1.0 | 7.0 | 14 Pts, 4 OR |
| Junior Cadougan, G | 5.4 | -0.1 | 5.5 | 2 treys, 3/0 Ast/TO |
| Jake Thomas, G | 2.2 | -1.3 | 3.5 | 4 DR, 1 ST & 4 Ast |
| Vander Blue, G | 3.2 | -0.1 | 3.3 | 2 of 8 shooting; 2 TO |
| Derrick Wilson, G | 2.7 | 0.0 | 2.7 | 5/0 Ast/TO |
| Chris Otule, C | 2.4 | -0.2 | 2.6 | 5 of 5 FG, but 0 Reb held down |
| Jamal Ferguson, F | 0.5 | -0.9 | 1.4 | 1 Stl plus 2 of 3 FG and 1 Reb |
| Steve Taylor Jr., F | 0.9 | -0.1 | 1.0 | 2 of 3 FG, 1 Reb, but 4 Fouls |
Another thing that may happen this year is a lot more discussion over who the Stud of the Game was on a given night. The opener Sunday started with Jamil Wilson looking everything like an NBA prospect - draining two quick treys en route to a very efficient night in which he scored 15 points on only seven shots.
However, while J. Wilson is very deserving, we noted this off season that defensive rebounding was the one thing that could destroy MU's season this year as the team was already one of the worst in the country last year and has now lost one of the top rebounding forwards in the country in the Dallas Maverick's Jae Crowder. Davante Gardner, J. Wilson and Chris Otule all had very poor defensive rebounding numbers in the past, although at least Otule has been able to box opponents out to give teammates a chance. Sunday Gardner grabbed just 2 defensive rebounds, J. Wilson 1 and Otule 0.
We did give kudos to Buzz for getting two of the top defensive rebounding guards in the country in transfers Trent Lockett and Jake Thomas, and both of them grabbed four defensive rebounds in the opener. When you add Lockett's 7 overall rebounds and 5 steals, he could be considered as a potential Stud of the Game as well and actually that defense gives him the 2nd highest Value Add of the game behind only J. Wilson (www.kenpom.com says Lockett's freshman season is the most similar to Matthews freshman season, so if he can match Matthews' senior year as a 6-foot-5 3rd guard it would be a huge boost).
However, the nicest surprise of the night was Juan Anderson, who had a disappointing year last year after being the top rated player in the incoming class. With defensive rebounding being the one area of concern, Anderson's 7 defensive rebounds helped clean the glass and with two steals and good offense, it would be hard to argue with him as the game's top player even though Value Add leaves him slightly behind the top two. Anderson did go down holding his shoulder on one play, but thankfully came back into the game later.
Davante Gardner, who Value Add projected as the top returning player, was next at 4th in Value Add behind more dominance on the offensive glass with 4 offensive rebounds en route to 14 points.
Granted it was against a weaker defense, but Junior Cadougan and Derrick Wilson combining for 8 assists and 0 turnovers was a great sign, as was the fact that freshmen Steve Taylor and Jamal Ferguson both got into the game and hit two of three shots and grabbed a rebound - with Taylor in particular looking like he is big enough to help take care of the defensive boards. However, Ferguson snuck ahead of Taylor in Value Add due to a late steal and dunk at the other end.
The only disappointment of the night was that there were no signs of Vander Blue's reportedly improved shot. He went 2 of 8 from the floor and turned it over twice, and with Todd Mayo out for at least the first semester, we have to hope Blue can explode as many anticipate.
It is only one game, but overall a lot of nice balance and hopes that the new players can take care of the defensive glass. Tomorrow night (Tuesday) at 8 p.m. CT Marquette will host Southeast Louisiana in the second game of the season.
Saturday, December 17, 2011
LSU's highly recruited 3 bigs offer threat with no Otule Monday - MU tunes up well with 93-72 win
Of all the great news during Saturday's win, the most important stat was MU allowing Northern Colorado, and above average team on the offensive glass, to rebound only 22% of their missed shots in the 93-72 win that made MU 10-0 for the first time since Dwyane Wade's first year.
LSU's trio of highly recruited big men are playing together for the first year (1 freshman, 2 transfers), and have started to dominate the offensive glass in winning their last four games including trips to Rutgers and future Big East member Houston.
Thankfully Jamil Wilson and Juan Anderson were back from injury today to tune up for tough match-ups underneath Monday, but even though MU fans had the welcome sight of Chris Otule off of crutches, his absence Monday poses a big threat to MU staying undefeated.
MU is giving up about 3 inches per match-up underneath against players that were as highly recruited as MUs players as recruits based on the Rivals ratings. The table below goes through each team's talest four players, and which team has the edge on each matchup based on who was a bigger recruit (Rivals Stars and then Position Rank if they were rated).
| Edge | Jer | LSU tallest 4 | Ft | In | Yr | Rivals | MU tallest 4 | Ft | In | Yr | Rivals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LSU | 2 | Johnny O'Bryant | 6 | 9 | Fr | 4* 4th | Jamail Jones | 6 | 6 | So | 4* 10th |
| MU | 5 | Malcolm White | 6 | 9 | Sr | 4* 24th | Jamil Wilson | 6 | 7 | So | 4* 18th |
| Even | 41 | Justin Hamilton | 6 | 11 | Jr | 3* | Jae Crowder | 6 | 6 | Sr | 3* |
| Even | 13 | Eddie Ludwig | 6 | 9 | Jr | 3* | Davante Gardner | 6 | 8 | So | 3* |
O'Bryant ranking as the 4th best at his position makes him the highest touted big man on the court Monday, as he ranked slightly higher than even Jamail Jones (10th best).
Jamil Wilson was slightly more highly regarded than fellow trasfer Malcolm White, but they were virtually even (18th best vs. 24th best out of high school)
Justin Hamilton also transferred (from Iowa State) and Eddie Ludwig were virtually equal;y regarded as Jae Crowder and and Davante Gardner.
So from the pure standpoint of how highly regarded they were as recruits, LSU and Marquette are virtually even among the four bigs, but MU averages giving up three inches per position underneath with Otule out.
While certainly none of the LSU bigs have matched the production of Crowder, White and Hamilton have been among the top offensive rebounders in the country both at their previous colleges (Mississippi and Iowa State respectively). O'Bryant is already the third best offensive rebounder in an improved SEC (grabs 15.5% of all LSU misses). You can see how Otule will be missed if MU's 4 "bigs" don't step out and do a great job of boxing out.
| Edge | Jer | LSU other 6 | Ft | In | Yr | Rivals | MU other 6 | Ft | In | Yr | Rivals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | 10 | Andre Stringer | 5 | 9 | So | 3* 27th | Vander Blue | 6 | 4 | So | 5* 7th |
| MU | 22 | Ralston Turner | 6 | 6 | So | 3* 28th | Junior Cadougan | 6 | 1 | Jr | 4* 13th |
| MU | 24 | Storm Warren | 6 | 7 | Sr | 3* 33rd | Juan Anderson | 6 | 6 | Fr | 4* 19th |
| Even | 14 | Jalen Courtney | 6 | 8 | So | 3* | Darius Johnson-Odom | 6 | 2 | Sr | 3* |
| Even | 32 | John Isaac | 6 | 4 | Fr | 3* | Todd Mayo | 6 | 3 | Fr | 3* |
| Even | 1 | Anthony Hickey | 5 | 10 | Fr | 3* | Derrick Wilson | 6 | 0 | Fr | 3* |
If MU isn't blow out underneath, then they do have a clear advantage at the other positions.
Vander Blue, Junior Cadougan and Juan Anderson were all more highly recruited than any of LSUs swing men or guards.
While Darius Johnson-Odom, Todd Mayo and Derrick Wilson were not more highly recruited than their LSU counterparts, they have proven to be better than many more highly rated players. DJO was picked as one of the top 10 players in the country so far this year in an SI article, and when he had to sit out today for a team rules violation, Mayo continued his incredible play this year by scoring 22 points to give MU a win virtually identical to what was predicted on www.kenpom.com assuming DJO was playing.
So MU needs to control the pace with superior talent at the guard and swing positions, but everyone will have to help box out to pervent LSU from getting on a roll and dominating inside much as Stanford did with current LSU coach Trent Johnson was coaching them.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
With 2 of the top 18 players in the country according to SI, do the numbers say Gardner and J. Wilson can get MU through until Otule returns?
If you’ve read Sports Illustrated the last few days, it’s easy to see why Marquette is ranked somewhere between 1st and 11th in virtually every computer rating and poll this season heading into tonight’s game with Green Bay.
According to Luke Winn, Marquette has two of the top 18 players in the country so far this season in Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, as well as a freshman in Todd Mayo who is scoring as many points a minute as his brother O.J. Mayo did as a freshman. Add to that Seth Davis citing Vander Blue as one of the top breakout sophomores, and it’s clear MU has tons of firepower.
Will Marquette stay in the Top 10 without Anderson, Otule?
However, when 7-foot-1 Alec Brown of Green Bay steps on the court tonight it will be a quick reminder that 6-foot-7 Jamil Wilson and 6-foot-8 Davante Gardner are now MU’s two tallest players until 6-foot-11 Chris Otule returns from an ACL injury that has MU fans holding their breath. With Juan Anderson now scheduled to miss 3-4 weeks with a shoulder injury, we can only hope Otule ends up with a similar timeline in order to come back for the Georgetown game.
For several years MU was so thin that any injury was almost insurmountable. The situation is much better now with a team that still has nine top flight D1 players ready to go and is luckily favored by double digits in Pomeroy in every game until a tough trip to Georgetown January 4, by which point it is even possible MU could be as good as 14-0.
In evaluating if MU can withstand the very unfortunately injuries, we can turn again to Pomeroy, who has now released his unsurpassed player calculations. Marquette had finally reached almost the average height in D1 basketball at 6-foot-4.5 inches before having to spread the 6-foot-11 Otule’s minutes between 6-foot-8 Davante Gardner and 6-foot-7 Jamil Wilson, and here are the rest of the comparisons:
| Otule | Gardner | J. Wilson | Ranked MU players | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORtg | 92.2 | 124.4 | 102.2 | DJO 18th, Crowder 11th* |
| eFG% | 60 | 60 | 46.4 | Crowder 57th, DJO 164th |
| Off Reb. | 11.4 | 14.4 | 7.2 | Otule 246th, Gardner 73rd* |
| Fouls Drawn | 4.3 | 6.8 | 2.5 | DJO 33rd, Gardner 57th |
| Height | 6-f-11 | 6-f-8 | 6-f-7 | Team 178th with Otule |
| Blk% | 9.6 | 1.9 | 6.8 | Otule 48th, J. Wilson 118th |
| Def Reb | 15.3 | 15.9 | 12.9 | Crowder 321st |
Losing Otule is not a big blow on the offensive side of the court. While Gardner’s overall great Offensive Rating (points per 100 times a player has the ball) of 124.4 will drop off with more possessions and minutes played, he will still almost surely produce more points than Otule’s 92.2. So overall, expect a few more points with Wilson and Gardner splitting Otule’s minutes. If DJO was the guy with the ball 28% of the time rather than his actual 27% of the time to date, his ORtg would be the 5th best of any go-to player in the country. As it is, DJO is the 18th best offensive player that is used at least 24% of the trips down the court, and Jae Crowder is the 11th best offensive player used at least 20% of the time down the court, and Todd Mayo has already broken into the top 300 as a freshman. So the offense looks unstoppable.
Both Otule and Gardner have effective Field Goal percentages of 60%, and while Wilson is lower right now that is with only 23 shots attempted. The fact that he can pop out and hit the trey (2 of 5 so far) certainly indicates he could create a tough matchup.
The one place on offense Otule was having an excellent start was in grabbing 11.4% of all Marquette misses, good for 246th of the 3500 D1 players, but if Gardner had more minutes played, his 14.4% of MU misses grabbed would rank him 73rd in the country. However, this is where having Wilson on the court playing center would hurt. Gardner’s ability to draw a foul 6.8% of the time would rank him 57th in the country, not far behind DJO’s ranking of 33rd (draws fouls 7.3% of the time). Mayo cracks the top 500 here too at 4.8%.
When you add in that Junior is 21st in the country in assists (38.3% of all MU baskets while he is on the court come off his assist), and Blue and DJO are ranked 263rd and 383rd respectively. It’s easy to see why Marquette’s offense is ranked as the 8th best in the country, and it looks like they can continue to be in the top 10 even down a couple of players. The question is, can they score enough against the tough teams like Georgetown and Syracuse to make up for a weakened defense if Otule is still out.
Defense – give up rebounds with Wilson, blocks with Gardner
Marquette is one of the top defensive teams in the country in three of four categories; turnovers, opponent’s shooting percentage and not fouling. They have been very weak in defensive rebounding.
Certainly the turnovers should keep coming from the 1-4 spots, led by Blue surging to 75th in the country by stealing the ball 4.4% of opponent’s trips down the court.
However, the absence of the 6-foot-11 Otule could definitely be felt with much improved shooting by Marquette opponents no longer being denied at the rim. Otule is blocking 9.6% of opponents’ 2-point shots so far this year, about the same as last year and fourth best in the Big East behind only Melo, Drummond and Dieng, and 48th best in the country.
While Gardner is basically Otule’s equal in defensive rebounds (15.9% of opponents misses to 15.3% of Otule), Otule is five times as likely to block a shot as Gardner, so expect opponents shooting percentages to go way up with Otule gone. Wilson has actually been a very good shot blocker at 6.8%, good enough for 118th in the country. However, while his defensive rebounding is solid at 12.9%, he is probably unlikely to be able to seal off opposing players as well as Otule does , meaning MU is likely to allow even more opposing second shots with Otule out.
While inconsistent, Marquette’s defense had been dominating at times this year and overall outstanding as one of only 18 teams to allow fewer than 90 points per every 100 trips down the floor.
It’s hard to see MU’s defense staying at that level with Otule out, so to stay as the projected No. 2 seed and top 10 team most are calculating through a month, MU either needs to fight through the next month and hope to get Anderson and Otule back for most Big East play, or simply have one of the top couple of offenses in the country and win shootouts in the 80s.
Monday, November 08, 2010
Derrick Wilson commits to MU
Derrick Wilson, a 6-foot-1 point guard out of the Hotchkiss School in Lakeville, CT, committed to Buzz Williams and Marquette on Monday. Originally from Alaska, Wilson was also targeted by Georgia Tech and Big East rival Notre Dame.
He’s a 3-star recruit on Scout with a grade of 90 and is listed as the #28 point guard in the nation for the 2011 class. From every report, it appears that Wilson is a strong, athletic guard who can get in the lane and create for those around him. He's also given a lot of credit for being a great rebounder for his position.
Rosiak is in on the commit too, with more updates from him planned for later today. Stay tuned there.
Here are some more links/clips
- Prepstars.com has a short clip on Wilson
- Here is an article on him from this summer
- Examiner.com talked about Wilson two years ago
In the Prepstars video, it says Wilson is “a strong student at a great prep school, his academics offer another selling point for college programs.”
D-Wil (it'll catch on) will join an already strong backcourt and it’s hard to tell what his role will be on next year’s team, considering the guard situation is still a toss-up for the current 2010-’11 season. Although it’s early, he’ll be competing with the likes of Cadougan, Smith, DJO, and Vander for playing time come next season.
Derek Wilson joins Juan Anderson in the 2011 freshman class, which leaves one open scholarship for Buzz come next season. Oregon transfer Jamil Wilson will also gain eligbility in 2011 as a redshirt sophomore.
Welcome to Marquette, Derrick!
Wednesday, November 21, 2012
Game MVP J. Wilson (+6), Gardner (+4) & FT shooting (+4) give MU 8-point win over USC
In the past I've complained when fans over-emphasized missed free throws in losses rather than focusing on which of the Four Factors decided the game. However, I've added a "FT%+-" line to give a true indication of the impact free throws have on a game in addition to the Four Factors. Here is the box from the win over USC.
| Eff. | eFG% | TO% | OR% | FTR | FT%+- | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette | 113.30 | 52.9% | 17.5% | 32.1% | 41.2% | +4 |
| Average | 100.00 | 48.0% | 21.1% | 32.7% | 37.6% | - |
| vs. USC | 100.71 | 46.4% | 15.6% | 27.3% | 26.8% | +2 |
Every year D1 basketball players hit 69% of their free throws, so "FT%+-" indicates how many points a team added or took away at the line by their shooting. Tonight MU took 21 free throws, so a typical team would have hit 14 of those on a given night, but MU hit 18 and thus scored 4 more points (+4 in far right) than they would have based just on the Four Factors. So without getting into the more complicated math (1-on-1s, possible offensive rebounds off missed free throws) we can say MU would have just won 68-64 on an average night at the line.
As for the Four Factors:
eFG%. MU shot better than average (52.9% eFG) and defended better than average (46.4% allowed). The key was Game MVP Jamil Wilson's 7 of 9 with three treys (94% eFG%).
TO%. MU did a better than average job of protecting the ball (17.5% of trips were turnovers), but USC was even better (15.6%).
OR%. MU was just below average in Offensive Rebounds. Davante Gardner entered the game getting 32.1% of all MU misses - the best total in the country by 5% over the 2nd best player in America - but that was the team average as USC's 7-footers were able to hold Gardner to 1 offensive rebound. However, the good news is that Marquette did an even better job of keeping USC off the boards by allowing only 27.3% to USC, after entering the game only 205th in defensive rebounding. Last year Jae Crowder's 21% put him in the top 5% of all players, but this year the two new guards have been key to keep the number respectable despite noone in the top 500. The best defensive rebounder is Jake Thomas (19%), followed by Juan Anderson and Trent Lockett (16%), then Jamil Wilson, Steve Taylor and Chris Otule (15%) and Gardner (14%).
FT%. MU was also above average in getting to the line with a 41.2% FT%, meaning they were able to shoot that percentage of Free Throws vs. Field Goals while holding USC to only 26.8% by not fouling.
Overall last night J. Wilson was clearly the star, worth almost a +6 to MU (5.927 according to Dean Olivier's NetAvg, which unlike Value Add does not adjust for level of opponent but is a quicker single game tool).
| vs. USC | FG (3pt) | FGA | FT | FTA | OR | DR | Pts | A | TO | BLK | S | Net Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamil Wilson, F | 7 (3) | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5.927 |
| Davante Gardner, F | 3 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3.586 |
| Juan Anderson, F | 1 (1) | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.518 |
| Chris Otule, C | 5 | 7 | - | - | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.384 |
| Trent Lockett, G | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.820 |
| Junior Cadougan, G | 3 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0.369 |
| Vander Blue, G | 3 | 11 | - | - | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 |
| Derrick Wilson, G | 1 | 3 | - | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Jake Thomas, G | - | 3 | - | - | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 |
| Steve Taylor Jr., G | - | - | - | - | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
That ties J. Wilson with Gardner's two Game MVPs and one 2nd place MVP for 13 points on my 5-3-1 scoring system. This was the third time this season that Anderson has been the third best player on the court for MU, as he hit a trey and grabbed two offensive rebounds to nudge out Chris Otule, who I'd subjectively say was actually the third best player tonight - but kudos to both. Here is the tally for the year based purely on Net Avg:
| Game MVPs | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| J. Wilson | 2 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| Blue | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| Cadougan | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Lockett | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Anderson | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
Despite RPI hit from loss to Butler, MU leaves Maui in decent shape
Monday, July 14, 2014
Dwight, Jamil, putting up above average numbers to start Summer League
Dwight Buycks and Jamil Wilson will post above average Summer League ratings in a post I have going up on www.breitbart.com today. I have a simple rating system for Summer League Play - basically the NBA Efficiency Rating only we do not have easy access to turnovers or missed free throws.
There are 302 players in Summer League who have played at least 18 minutes so far - so obviously just getting started for most - but the average player has a 0.50 rating for one net contribution for every two minutes played. I listed the top 10 and then the wort few players so far. Mason Plumlee and Bernard James are the only two averaging more than one per minute, and Cleveland may want to worry a little about UVa's Joe Harris first outing after he moved so fast up the draft board.
Most importantly, Buycks is in the top third of all Summer League players (0.60 rating) after leading the Raptors with 21 points in a loss. Meanwhile Jamil Wilson's 16 points on only five missed shots in 37 minutes helps give him a slightly above average 0.54. I confess I cannot find any accounts of Jamil's play, so I am purely relying on the stats posted - so will go back on the Scoop to read up on news, but wanted to at least post this.
| Rnk | Summer League >18' | Team | Rating | Pts | Reb | Ast | Stl | Blk | Miss | Min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason Plumlee | BKN | 1.06 | 54 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 70 |
| 2 | Bernard James | DAL | 1.05 | 36 | 17 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 55 |
| 3 | Will Cherry | CLE | 0.97 | 28 | 10 | 5 | 1 | - | 6 | 39 |
| 4 | Trey Thompkins | LAL | 0.97 | 25 | 6 | 1 | 2 | - | 4 | 31 |
| 5 | Quincy Miller | DEN | 0.97 | 49 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 62 |
| 6 | Rudy Gobert | UTA | 0.92 | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| 7 | Cory Jefferson | BKN | 0.91 | 56 | 34 | 1 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 107 |
| 8 | Glen Rice Jr. | WAS | 0.89 | 42 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 12 | 55 |
| 9 | Nerlens Noel | PHI | 0.89 | 41 | 17 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 76 |
| 10 | Arinze Onuaku | IND | 0.88 | 32 | 30 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 77 |
93 | Dwight Buycks | TOR | 0.60 | 35 | 4 | 9 | 1 | - | 16 | 55 |
127 | Jamil Wilson | WAS | 0.54 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 37 |
| 285 | Alec Brown | PHX | 0.17 | 7 | 4 | 1 | - | 4 | 11 | 29 |
| 298 | Joe Harris | CLE | 0.05 | 4 | - | - | - | 1 | 4 | 22 |
| 299 | Dennis Horner | MIN | 0.04 | - | 3 | - | - | - | 2 | 25 |
| 300 | Jerome Jordan | LAL | - | - | 3 | - | 1 | 2 | 6 | 24 |
| 301 | Jerome Dyson | CHA | (0.03) | 4 | 4 | 2 | - | - | 11 | 37 |
| 302 | Scott Wood | LAL | (0.04) | 2 | 2 | - | 1 | - | 6 | 24 |
Sunday, December 09, 2012
Double digit wins over Pomeroy Top 10: Wade over Kentucky 2003, Novak over UConn 2006, Amigos over WVU 2009 & Cadougan over Wisconsin yesterday
Junior Cadougan dominated Wisconsin for a 60-50 win, marking only the 4th time in 32 chances that Marquette has beaten a Pomeroy Top 10 team by double digits. The other three were Dwayne Wade over Kentucky 83-69 in 2003, Steve Novak over Connecticut 94-79 in 2006 and the Three Amigos over WVU 75-53 in 2009. (complete list of games vs. Pomeroy 32 at bottom)
Wisconsin entered the game with the 9th best offense in the country at 114.1 points per trip down the court and Marquette shut them down at 75.76 points per 100 trips. This was largely due to the 2nd best player in the game, Vander Blue, coming up with 4 steals to help force 10 Wisconsin turnovers in the first half - more than their average for a game - and on 20.3% of their trips. Perhaps more importantly, MU held Wisconsin to a slightly below average 29.3% offensive rebounding percentage - an area where Wisconsin has sometimes dominated MU. The one item where both teams were awful was at the line, where if both teams had hit the average percent of free throws MU would have won 65-57 instead of 60-50 (FT%+- shows MU hit 5 fewer FT than they should have and Wisconsin 7).
| Eff. | eFG% | TO% | OR% | FTR | FT%+- | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marquette | 90.91 | 51.0% | 22.0% | 25.0% | 32.7% | (5) |
| Average | 100.00 | 48.0% | 21.1% | 32.7% | 37.6% | - |
| Wisconsin | 75.76 | 39.4% | 20.3% | 29.3% | 44.2% | (7) |
Using the Game NetAvg Cadougan was dominant at 9.89, but when you consider how clutch he was when the Badgers threatened, he was way better than the stats can measure. A couple of times when the shot clock was about to expire he went to the hoops and scored or got the ball to Vander Blue for a trey. His 6-to-1 assist to turnover for the game was clutch with the rest of the team struggling with turnovers (including a disturbing 7 by Lockett). But most importantly, on a night when the rest of the team hit 25% from the line (3 of 12) Cadougan went 4 of 5.
Blue was easily the 2nd best player, but there were also excellent contributions from Davante Gardner, who physically beat up Jared Berggren (22nd best player in Value Add) while holding him scoreless in the first half, Jamil Wilson, and how about Derrick Wilson. In the Florida game, D. Wilson joined Blue as the only two players with a good game, and his 3 assists made MU point guards 9 assists and 1 turnover for the game.
| vs. Wisconsin | FG (3pt) | FGA | FT | FTA | FT% | OR | DR | TP | A | TO | BLK | S | Net Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Junior Cadougan, G | 7 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 0.800 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 9.849 |
| Vander Blue, G | 7 (2) | 14 | 1 | 3 | 0.333 | 0 | 5 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5.941 |
| Davante Gardner, F | 5 | 9 | - | 2 | 0.000 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1.444 |
| Jamil Wilson, F | 4 | 6 | - | - | 0.000 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1.411 |
| Derrick Wilson, G | 1 | 3 | - | 2 | 0.000 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1.033 |
| Steve Taylor Jr., NA | - | - | - | 1 | 0.000 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Juan Anderson, F | - | 1 | - | - | 0.000 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 |
| Jake Thomas, G | - | 2 | - | - | 0.000 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Chris Otule, C | - | - | - | 2 | 0.000 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 |
| Trent Lockett, G | 1 (1) | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1.000 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 |
| TOTAL | 25 | 52 | 7 | 17 | 0.412 | 7 | 29 | 60 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 9 | |
| Wisconsin | 17 | 52 | 9 | 23 | 0.391 | 12 | 21 | 50 | 13 | 13 | 3 | 7 |
The list of all games Wisconsin has played against teams in Pomeroy's top 10 are listed below. MU is 8-24 in those games, and they are ordered from most lopsided win to most lopsided loss. Ironically the previous game at Florida was MU's 2nd biggest loss ever to a Top 10 team. Pomeroy's ratings date back to Dwyane Wade's last season, when MU beat Kentucky 83-69.
| Date | Season | Pom Rnk | opponent | Result | Location | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Jan 10 | 2009 | 9 | West Virginia | W, 75-53 | Home | 22 | |
| Tue Jan 3 | 2006 | 4 | Connecticut | W, 94-79 | Home | 15 | |
| Sat Mar 29 | 2003 | 2 | Kentucky | W, 83-69 | Neutral | 14 | |
| Sat Dec 8 | 2013 | 9 | Wisconsin | W, 60-50 | Home | 10 | |
| Sat Dec 3 | 2012 | 5 | Wisconsin | W, 61-54 | Away | 7 | |
| Thu Feb 24 | 2011 | 10 | Connecticut | W, 74-67 | OT | Away | 7 |
| Sat Dec 8 | 2008 | 5 | Wisconsin | W, 81-76 | Away | 5 | |
| Thu Mar 27 | 2003 | 3 | Pittsburgh | W, 77-74 | Neutral | 3 | |
| Tue Dec 29 | 2010 | 8 | West Virginia | L, 63-62 | Away | -1 | |
| Sat Mar 1 | 2008 | 7 | Georgetown | L, 70-68 | OT | Home | -2 |
| Thu Feb 17 | 2005 | 5 | Louisville | L, 64-61 | Home | -3 | |
| Sun Mar 22 | 2009 | 6 | Missouri | L, 83-79 | Neutral | -4 | |
| Wed Nov 21 | 2008 | 8 | Duke | L, 77-73 | Neutral | -4 | |
| Sat Dec 9 | 2007 | 8 | Wisconsin | L, 70-66 | Home | -4 | |
| Sun Mar 1 | 2009 | 4 | Louisville | L, 62-58 | Away | -4 | |
| Sat Dec 20 | 2004 | 5 | Wisconsin | L, 63-59 | Away | -4 | |
| Mon Nov 22 | 2011 | 2 | Duke | L, 82-77 | Neutral | -5 | |
| Sat Dec 11 | 2011 | 7 | Wisconsin | L, 69-64 | Home | -5 | |
| Sat Jan 23 | 2010 | 4 | Syracuse | L, 76-71 | Away | -5 | |
| Sat Feb 4 | 2006 | 7 | Villanova | L, 72-67 | Away | -5 | |
| Sat Jan 7 | 2012 | 6 | Syracuse | L, 73-66 | Away | -7 | |
| Tue Jan 25 | 2011 | 10 | Connecticut | L, 76-68 | Home | -8 | |
| Sat Jan 8 | 2011 | 4 | Pittsburgh | L, 89-81 | Away | -8 | |
| Sat Dec 12 | 2010 | 9 | Wisconsin | L, 72-63 | Away | -9 | |
| Wed Feb 25 | 2009 | 3 | Connecticut | L, 93-82 | Home | -11 | |
| Mon Feb 4 | 2008 | 6 | Louisville | L, 71-57 | Home | -14 | |
| Wed Mar 4 | 2009 | 5 | Pittsburgh | L, 90-75 | Away | -15 | |
| Sat Feb 10 | 2007 | 5 | Georgetown | L, 76-58 | Away | -18 | |
| Thu Jan 17 | 2008 | 6 | Louisville | L, 71-51 | Away | -20 | |
| Sat Apr 5 | 2003 | 1 | Kansas | L, 94-61 | Neutral | -33 | |
| Thu Nov 29 | 2013 | 2 | Florida | L, 82-49 | Away | -33 | |
| Wed Jan 26 | 2005 | 5 | Louisville | L, 99-52 | Away | -47 |
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Jamil Wilson among nation's elite; Crittle & Theodore updates
Jamil Wilson is ready for his closeup, Mr. DeMille.
After an impressive showing at a series of camps and tournmaents this spring with his AAU program, Racine Horlick junior Jamil Wilson is the consensus choice as the top player in his class within the state -- and one of the top 15 in the nation.
Here's a feature on Tom Crean's #1 recruiting priority for the 2009 class from the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.
Here's some encouraging news........ the Bullseye Brothers report that MU "could be sitting pretty" with 6-8 Chicago strongman Josh Crittle. Crittle visited MU this past weekend --- he'd be a huge get for TC. Despite reeling in Mbakwe, Saunders and Hazel in 2007, MU will lack girth and strength on the baseline without a player like Crittle to solidify the rotation.
Courtesy of Adam Zagoria, Paterson Catholic PG Jordan Theodore will not transfer from his current school. Theodore recently tabbed SHU as the leader for his services -- but has not ruled out MU as an option.
Saturday, January 18, 2014
Mayo, Anderson, Thomas 3 Overachievers Heading into Crucial Noon Game
Todd Mayo, Juan Anderson and Jake Thomas are the three Marquette players who have exceeded their Value Add projections this season heading into a game at an even more disappointing Butler. The opportunities are there for someone to step up down the stretch to give the team a run and shot at extending their string of bids, but they almost must win every winnable game such as today.
Two years ago I projected this team as an Elite 8 team led by JC transfer Jameel McKay, Vander Blue, and others on the roster. The signing of Duane Wilson seemed to give MU a chance at a point guard to take over from Junior. The fact that those three players transferred, left to tryout for the pros and were injured, respectively, took almost 10 points of Projected Value Add and that is enough to drop a team from 30th to 130th.
The team was projected to have perhaps the best depth in basketball with NINE players in the top 20% (top 800) of all college players. However, in addition to the loss of those three players, Steve Taylor, JuJuan Johnson, Chris Otule and most disappointingly Jamil Wilson have not even been in the top 30% (Top 1200 players).
The four players who have been strong according to Value Add are Davante Gardner, Todd Mayo, Deonte Burton and Juan Anderson. While Gardner's rank of 283rd is very good, he is nowhere near his projected place as the 50th most valuable player in the country.
So let's try looking at the glass as half full. Jamil's potential is apparent to everyone. If he lights it up, Jake pulls out some games with downtown shots, and most importantly Buzz can figure out if he can get some shooting out of the point guard position to prevent all of the double teams on Davante and Jamil, then the team does have the firepower to turn it on and beat a lot of teams.
Marquette is a one to five point underdog in each of the next three games according to www.kenpom.com. If MU can get two wins in these games - at Butler and Georgetown and at home against Villanova - there would start to be a ray of hope of a bid, so let's see who can step up starting at Noon tomorrow against a Butler team that MU last beat to make it three straight Sweet 16 games. Today may be a bit of a do-or-die as well, so GO Marquette!
| Marquette Roster | Class | 2014 Value Add | Rank | Projected | Projected Rank | Over/Under perform |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gardner, Davante | 4 Sr | 3.22 | 283 | 6.82 | 50 | -3.6 |
| Mayo, Todd | 3 Jr | 2.26 | 504 | 0.94 | 1670 | 1.32 |
| Burton, Deonte | 1 Fr | 1.74 | 685 | 2.71 | 620 | -0.97 |
| Anderson, Juan | 3 Jr | 1.7 | 700 | 1.28 | 1363 | 0.42 |
| Otule, Chris | 4 Sr | 0.9 | 1216 | 2.3 | 754 | -1.4 |
| Wilson, Jamil | 4 Sr | 0.9 | 1219 | 4.69 | 165 | -3.79 |
| Thomas, Jake | 4 Sr | 0.63 | 1498 | 0.48 | 2236 | 0.15 |
| Johnson, JaJuan | 1 Fr | 0.61 | 1519 | 3.39 | 435 | -2.78 |
| Wilson, Derrick | 3 Jr | 0.31 | 1975 | 0.94 | 1667 | -0.63 |
| Dawson, John | 1 Fr | 0.25 | 2071 | 0.88 | 1727 | -0.63 |
| Taylor, Steve | 2 So | 0.15 | 2303 | 3.04 | 518 | -2.89 |
| Not playing | 12.67 | 27.47 | -14.8 | |||
| Wilson, Duane | 1 Fr | injured | NR | 2.48 | 685 | -2.48 |
| McKay, Jameel | 3 Jr | transfer | NR | 3.44 | 433 | -3.44 |
| Blue, Vander | 4 Sr | Israel | NR | 3.94 | 228 | -3.94 |
Saturday, July 23, 2011
Back to the Pro-Am
I got out to IWB's Milwaukee Pro-Am at Greenfield High School again today. As always, it was a good time, and I was especially glad to be joined by a number of other Marquette fans. A small group of us took in the action and tried to get some impressions of what we might have in store for next season. Here's what I came away with after another look at some of these guys.
Junior Cadougan: If the Pro-Am is any indicator, Junior is on the verge of stardom. His shooting form has improved, though he still has problems when he adjusts in mid-air. He was very good at the line, hitting 9 in a row at one point. He's in better shape, accelerates very well (sometimes too fast for teammates), and is faster than I ever expected. I also liked his defensive instincts. He seemed aware of Otule, and when he couldn't cut a guy off he would funnel them inside to CO, who was constantly altering shots. He did run into some frustration when teammates wouldn't put the ball up despite him getting them the ball in position and when he outran everyone else on the fast-break, but when he's surrounded by guys like DJO and Jamil Wilson, that shouldn't be a problem.
Chris Otule: When Chris is down low, he seems to have an impact on virtually every shot that goes up. It will surprise no one that he is a flat-out shot-changer. But what I really liked was what I saw on offense. On more than one occasion, Otule demonstrated a reverse-pivot move that allowed him to finish with his left hand. I can't remember seeing this from him last season. If Otule can develop another reliable post move or two, he could really help open things up for us by keeping defenses honest.
Jamil Wilson: He is one heck of an athlete. Jamil seems to be able to do a bit of everything. At times he brought the ball up, he showed off shooting range with a few 3's, he got rebounds and put-backs in traffic, and even tried to take a charge (though was called for blocking). He looks like the basketball version of a "five-tool player".
Juan Anderson: When I think of JA, I think of a guy that has a very high basketball IQ. He has excellent court vision, unbelievable creativity when passing, and is willing to defer to his teammates. Some of the passes he makes, including one stunning left-handed bounce pass while on the run, are simply things of beauty. He needs to bulk up a bit, but when he does, expect him to be an exciting and intriguing player to watch.
Jake Thomas: This guy is going to have a positive impact on Marquette next year. I know, he's not eligible to play until 2012-13, but he will be a dynamite practice player. Thomas ran the point for his team today and also continued to demonstrate ridiculous shooting range. Thomas isn't your typical walk-on. He looks like a high-major contributor. Jake's a hard worker, a great shooter, and a tough defender. I have no doubt that our guards will be better players for having to play against him on a daily basis. I'm looking forward to this kid being a Warrior.
Vander Blue: I only watched the first half of Blue's game. He can drive and score and put in a good effort, but his shot still needs work. He tends to push it more than he does shoot it. On the plus side, it's actually falling more than it did last season. If nothing else, hopefully the Pro-Am will help build his confidence. Still, I can't see him as anything more than a sixth or seventh man right now.
Jamail Jones: I love Melo's new body, but I want to see him use it more. He tends to stick to the perimeter on offense, just waiting to knock down the three. He got inside a few times, but I think with his strength he could actually develop a bit of a post-up game. Physically he looks like he should be ahead of the curve, but if he doesn't add more diversity to his game, I could see people like Mayo and Anderson passing him in the rotation come fall.
Other Thoughts:
- Dwight Buycks is built for the Pro-Am, but if and when he plays professionally, he needs to be a 2-guard. He's a score first, score second, score third, pass fourth kind of guy. Still, he's fun to watch. Some of the fade-away 3's he hit were incredible.
- Dunk of the day goes to Trend Blackledge (no surprise there). At the end of their game, Cadougan fed him an alley-oop that saw Trend's hand a good foot above the rim as he just seemed to hang for a second before slamming it down.
- The best non-Marquette guy I watched today was Dejuante Wade. The big man was matched up against Jamil Wilson and looked unstoppable early, hitting shots down low, from mid-range, and displaying good post moves. The former UW-GB Phoenix player led his team to a rout today.
- Watching Junior, Otule, and Keaton Nankivil on the same team makes me wonder what might have been. Nankivil played well both in the post and in shooting from outside. He's the kind of mismatch player that would have really helped Marquette over the past four years, and it's no surprise that the Scion Dental team, even without Wes Matthews, is dominating the MPA.
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Jamil Wilson update: another playoff victory
Racine Horlick's Jamil Wilson, the best sophomore in the state of Wisconsin, led his team to a 51-41 victory over West Allis Central last night in the WIAA Division 1 regional semis. The Marquette target led his squad with 18 points, 14 of which came in the second half. Wilson's Rebels advanced to the regional championship game against Muskego on Saturday in Racine. Congrats, Jamil!
Also, here's a quick recap on Jamil's prowess from the guys at Chicago Hoops, er their new site 'Milwaukee Hoops'.
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Value Add: What Combo Gives MU Best Shot?
Marquette survived to keep a March Madness pulse alive with a 96-94 overtime win at DePaul, meaning winning three of the last four might be enough. Who should be on the court to give MU the best chance with so little margin of error?
Derrick Wilson has vastly improved, so assume he is the point guard. Based on www.valueaddbasketball.com I would go with Todd Mayo and Davante Gardner to combine with Jamil Wilson to give us enough offense to beat elite teams (those three are adding 6-7 points a game over what we would expect from replacements, so more minutes for Gardner and Mayo would be key).
But the defensive rankings in Value Add convince me Buzz should continue to start Juan Anderson, who is taking 1.26 points off the board for opponents even playing only a little better than 1/3rd of the minutes.
Value Add calculates that if Anderson played about 28 minutes a game and could maintain the same defensive pace, he would be one of only 12 players in the country to take away more than 2.5 points per game. If he had just a few more minutes played, he would rank 17th in the country in steals at www.kenpom.com (4.5% of all opponents trips) - which is 7th among players in a High Major conference. He is also just behind Jamil for tops on the team in defensive rebounds (17.8% of missed shots).
I realize it is not that simple. Marquette could not have won today without Jake Thomas' three treys in the first half, and Chris Otule's 6 of 7 game from the floor and 12 second half points. He has moved into the top 2% of all offensive rebounders in the country.
Ironically Marquette is one of 47 teams with five players in the Top 750, but three of the first four do not start.
114. Davante Gardner (could be threatening top 100 after today's outing)
497. Jamil Wilson (started season out of top 1000)
576. Todd Mayo
685. Deonte Burton
724. Juan Anderson
A tough call with everyone on the roster showing the ability to contribute, but that would be my statistical advice for maximizing the points added by Jamil, Davante and Todd and maximizing the points taken away from opponents by Juan and Derrick to pull out the close wins we will likely need in three of the next four games to hope for a tournament bid.
Wednesday, May 25, 2011
Top transfers coming in 2011-12; Jamil Wilson ranks 23rd and best in Big East
Jamil Wilson is one of just 34 incoming transfers that already produced for their former team in 2010.
Jamil was the 16th most efficient offensive player on the list, accounting for 101.3 points per possession that he was part of the play. Due to his minutes falling off later in the season, Jamil’s overall Offensive Value add was 0.5%, meaning his presence in 2010 increased Oregon’s scoring by half a percent over the course of the season. Not a huge impact that year, but plenty of reason for hope after a year of getting stronger and working out.
The fact is most transfers leave their first schools without having added any value to the team, so Jamil already beginning to produce points as a freshman puts him ahead of schedule.
David Singleton’s was the top defensive player for High Point with a Defensive Efficiency Rating of 1.07. Unfortunately, despite being one of the top steals guys in the country, the fact that High Point was allowing almost 1.10 points per opponents trips down the court made it hard for any of their players - even the best defender, to get a good rating or show Defensive Value. Hopefully, his talents will complement Marquette’s defensive scheme.
Overall, Jamil’s contribution is the 23rd best of any incoming transfer in the country.
The two big catches of the transfer season are Dominique Sutton, who was the defensive specialist for the Elite 8 K-State team and was a very solid offensive contributor as well (21, 10 against Wagner) but transferred to a very poor NC Central team to be near his daughters.
The second best incoming transfer this year is 6-foot-11 Arnett Moultrie, who was not a strong offensive player at UTEP but gives Mississippi State yet another dominant defensive shot-blocker and rebounder.
Here is the list of the top 34 transfers this year based on the Total Value formula for their overall contribution to their last team in 2010. The only other Big East transfer to maket the list was Lamont Jones, who made a small contribution at Arizona before transferring to St. John’s.
| Name | Height | 2010 | This year | ValueAdd | ValueSub | Total Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominique Sutton | 6-f-5 | Kansas St. | NC Central | 1.8% | -4.0% | 5.7% |
| Arnett Moultrie | 6-f-11 | Texas El Paso | Mississippi State | 0.2% | -4.7% | 4.9% |
| Sam Maniscalco | 6-f-0 | Bradley | Illinois | 4.2% | 4.2% | |
| Brandon Wood | 6-f-3 | Valparaiso | Michigan State | 3.5% | 3.5% | |
| Chris Babb | 6-f-5 | Penn St. | Iowa State | 2.9% | 2.9% | |
| Chris Allen | 6-f-3 | Michigan St. | Iowa State | 2.1% | -0.7% | 2.8% |
| Devoe Joseph | 6-f-3 | Minnesota | Oregon | 1.5% | -1.2% | 2.7% |
| Kevin Dillard | 6-f-0 | Southern Illinois | Dayton | 2.7% | 2.7% | |
| Justin Hamilton | 6-f-11 | Iowa St. | LSU | 2.2% | -0.2% | 2.4% |
| Elston Turner | 6-f-4 | Washington | Texas A&M | 1.2% | -1.2% | 2.4% |
| Jeff Jones | 6-f-4 | Virginia | Rider | 2.4% | 2.4% | |
| Miguel Paul | 6-f-1 | Missouri | East Carolina | 0.9% | -1.2% | 2.1% |
| Aaron Fuller | 6-f-6 | Iowa | USC | 1.9% | 1.9% | |
| Jon Smith | 6-f-5 | St. Louis | Ohio | 0.7% | -1.0% | 1.7% |
| Marshall Henderson | 6-f-2 | Utah | Texas Tech | 1.1% | 1.1% | |
| Ben Boggs | 6-f-4 | Virginia Tech | Valpo | 0.1% | -0.9% | 1.0% |
| Ramon Galloway | 6-f-2 | South Carolina | LaSalle | 0.9% | 0.9% | |
| Michael Bizoukas | 6-f-1 | DePaul | Missouri State | 0.7% | 0.7% | |
| Drew Gordon | 6-f-1 | UCLA | New Mexico | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| Travis Wear | 6-f-10 | North Carolina | UCLA | 0.1% | -0.4% | 0.6% |
| Mike Rosario | 6-f-3 | Rutgers | Florida | 0.6% | 0.6% | |
| Evan Ravenel | 6-f-8 | Boston College | Ohio State | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| Jamil Wilson | 6-f-7 | Oregon | Marquette | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| David Wear | 6-f-10 | North Carolina | UCLA | 0.1% | -0.4% | 0.5% |
| Rakim Sanders | 6-f-5 | Boston College | Fairfield | 0.5% | 0.5% | |
| Rian Pearson | 6-f-3 | Wisconsin Green Bay | Toledo | 0.4% | 0.4% | |
| Justin Cobbs | 6-f-3 | Minnesota | California | -0.3% | 0.3% | |
| Chauncey Gilliam | 6-f-5 | MD Baltimore County | Akron | 0.3% | 0.3% | |
| Demetrius Walker | 6-f-4 | Arizona St. | New Mexico | -0.3% | 0.3% | |
| Xavier Thames | 6-f-3 | Washington St. | San Diego State | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| Chaz Williams | 5-f-9 | Hofstra | Massachusetts | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| Carlon Brown | 6-f-5 | Utah | Colorado | 0.2% | 0.2% | |
| Curtis Dennis | 6-f-5 | New Mexico | Toledo | 0.1% | 0.1% | |
| Lamont Jones | 5-f-11 | Arizona | St. Johns | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Saturday, November 24, 2012
Top Value Adds for MU Players and Non-Conference Opponents
With the first release of the 1500 Most Valuable Players to date (see next post down), Jamil Wilson jumps out as Marquette's top player through the first few games. In the game that didn't happen, MU lined up against the only team with two top 10 players (Aaron Craft and Deshaun Thomas) in Ohio State.
While Monday's opponent Maryland-Baltimore County should be an easy win, guard Ryan Cook checks in as the 275th most Valuable player to date (top 400 players are top 10% of all D1 players). Staying within single digits on the trip to Florida will be a big test for MU. The Gators feature #20 Erik Murphy, #65 Kenny Boynton and #163 Mike Rosario who ran all over MU when with Rutgers. December 8 MU should have a slight edge vs. Wisconsin with Gasser out and playing in the Bradley Center, two Badgers have stepped up big time with Ben Brust coming in at #19 and Jared Berggren at #61.
Later in the month LSU brings #23 Anthony Hickey and #158 Charles Carmouche, and even North Carolina Central has two early stars in #332 Ray Willis and #462 Stanton Kidd. Here is a list of all top 500 players on MU's non-conference schedule. Below that, we will look at MU's players in the top 1500.
| Rnk | Player | MU Opponent | Ht | Yr | Off | Def | PG/Per | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Aaron Craft | Ohio St. | 6' 2" | Jr | 9.96 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 11.46 |
| 10 | Deshaun Thomas | Ohio St. | 6' 7" | Jr | 10.52 | -0.57 | 0.00 | 11.09 |
| 19 | Ben Brust | Wisconsin | 6' 1" | Jr | 7.04 | -2.13 | 1.00 | 10.17 |
| 20 | Erik Murphy | Florida | 6' 10" | Sr | 8.48 | -1.68 | 0.00 | 10.15 |
| 23 | Anthony Hickey | Louisiana St. | 5' 11" | So | 4.83 | -3.62 | 1.50 | 9.95 |
| 61 | Jared Berggren | Wisconsin | 6' 10" | Sr | 6.18 | -1.95 | 0.00 | 8.13 |
| 65 | Kenny Boynton | Florida | 6' 2" | Sr | 6.55 | -0.36 | 1.00 | 7.91 |
| 158 | Charles Carmouche | Louisiana St. | 6' 4" | Sr | 3.92 | -1.69 | 0.50 | 6.11 |
| 163 | Mike Rosario | Florida | 6' 3" | Sr | 4.55 | -0.54 | 1.00 | 6.09 |
| 197 | Kellen Dunham | Butler | 6' 6" | Fr | 5.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.62 |
| 203 | Eric Wise | Southern California | 6' 6" | Sr | 3.71 | -1.87 | 0.00 | 5.58 |
| 209 | Lenzelle Smith | Ohio St. | 6' 4" | Jr | 4.81 | -0.21 | 0.50 | 5.52 |
| 264 | Rotnei Clarke | Butler | 6' 0 | Sr | 4.55 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 5.05 |
| 275 | Ryan Cook | MD Baltimore County | 6' 2" | Sr | 6.48 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 4.98 |
| 322 | Sam Dekker | Wisconsin | 6' 7" | Fr | 4.75 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.75 |
| 332 | Ray Willis | North Carolina Central | 6' 6" | Sr | 3.23 | -1.47 | 0.00 | 4.70 |
| 344 | Shannon Scott | Ohio St. | 6' 1" | So | 1.95 | -2.16 | 0.50 | 4.61 |
| 416 | Pat Moore | Colgate | 6' 5" | Jr | 5.20 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 4.20 |
| 421 | Khyle Marshall | Butler | 6' 6" | Jr | 4.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.19 |
| 462 | Stanton Kidd | North Carolina Central | 6' 7" | Jr | 3.62 | -0.37 | 0.00 | 3.99 |
| 464 | Murphy Burnatowski | Colgate | 6' 7" | Sr | 3.88 | -0.09 | 0.00 | 3.98 |
| 478 | Shavon Coleman | Louisiana St. | 6' 5" | Jr | 3.43 | -0.49 | 0.00 | 3.92 |
| 495 | Brandon Fortenberry | Southeastern Louisiana | 6' 3" | Sr | 2.65 | -0.16 | 1.00 | 3.82 |
As mentioned in the post below, in the first few games players in major conferences often are lower after a few games because coaches are spreading the minutes against creampuffs, and the adjustments for level of opponents requires really big numbers for a player to stand out.
Right now www.kenpom.com believes MU has faced only the 273rd best defenses of all D1 teams, so a player really had to light it up through early games to register big value. The one player who has done that is Jamil Wilson, who is the 54th most efficient player in the country (141.5 points per 100 times he has the ball), due to being the only MU player in the Top 500 in eFG% (59.1% for 251st place) and turnovers (only 5.8% turnover rate for 64th best) one of four MU players among the leaders in blocked shots (Otule 8.3%, 107th, Wilson 5.6%, 237th, Anderson 5.3% 252nd and Gardner 3.4% 458th). Finally, Wilson and Junior Cadougan are the two MU players in the top 500 in getting to the line. The only thing keeping Wilson out of the top 100 right now is that he is only playing 60% of the team's minutes and only handling the ball 17.1% of the time he is on the court, so a little less bench time and assertiveness and he can be the star.
Gardner was projected to be the best player, and still may be. He is still #1 in offensive rebounding (27.1%) and 81st in the country in drawing fouls, and is 3rd in the county in the percent of time he gets the ball during his team's trip (37.9% of all possessions). He has 113.8 points per 100 possessions, just a bit off his first two seasons due to a few more turnovers and missed shots, but he is right there to shot up.
The nice surprises though have been Chris Otule, who is once again swatting shots but has a 124.9 points per 100 possession average due to 72% shooting from the floor. If he can keep that going when tougher competition hits, MU really will have two strong big men. Juan Anderson has a 108.8 per 100 rating due to great offensive rebounding and 3-point shooting, but he has also been one of hte top shot blockers and stealers (112th in country at 4.9%), and Jake Thomas is among national leaders with a 119.5 and his much needed Defensive Rebounding figure of 17.8%.
I realize the other surprise will be that Vander Blue is not on the list, even as we all pray for a speedy return. Certainly with all of his athletic skill we see the tremendous potential for a breakout year with his 5 of 12 shooting on treys and 10 of 12 from the line. While his game-by-game NetVal ratings (based on Dean Olivier's statistics) have been good, once you adjust for MU only playing the 273rd toughest defenses to date, his two point shooting (16 of 42 for 38%) and fairly high turnover rate (18.3%) holds him down to only 96 points per 100 times with the ball. The national average is 100 per 100, but if he can come back healthy and cut out a few turnovers and avoid some of the 2-point misses, he will certainly shoot up the list quickly. Here are the numbers for the players already in the top 1500 list below:
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| Rnk | Player | Team | Ht | Yr | Off | Def | PG/Per | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 164 | Jamil Wilson | Marquette | 6' 7" | Jr | 4.81 | -1.28 | 0.00 | 6.08 |
| 537 | Davante Gardner | Marquette | 6' 8" | Jr | 3.34 | -0.28 | 0.00 | 3.62 |
| 754 | Chris Otule | Marquette | 6' 11" | Sr | 2.30 | -0.59 | 0.00 | 2.89 |
| 796 | Juan Anderson | Marquette | 6' 6" | So | 0.92 | -1.84 | 0.00 | 2.77 |
| 1125 | Jake Thomas | Marquette | 6' 3" | Jr | 1.04 | -0.85 | 0.00 | 1.89 |
| 1312 | Junior Cadougan | Marquette | 6' 1" | Sr | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
