IPFW Numbers Recap

Or... do traditional rebound figures tell the whole story?

Numbers Recap

Here is the breakdown for efficiency and the Four Factors against IPFW. In the IPFW preview that we did, I said that my prediction was for a 95% chance of Marquette victory, with the offense a little stagnant and the defense better than normal.


Turns out pretty close to expectations. The key here was that MU ended up with a season-best in defensive eFG%. Certainly, Marquette was sloppier with the ball than they should have been, and they didn't get to the line nearly as much as they usually do (avg FTR of 36.2%). However, the defense was pretty good, especially considering that IPFW was the best cupcake (queen of the pigs?) that MU has played so far.

Is it a bad thing to give up 12 offensive rebounds?

Here is another opportunity to dig into tempo-free stats a little bit more. In the Rosiak Blog recap, there's the following comments and quote from Buzz

On the flip side, the Golden Eagles allowed a similarly-sized team in the Mastodons to grab 12 offensive rebounds, and IPFW actually scored more points off turnovers -- 15 off 14 compared to 13 off 12 for MU.

"Tennesee will probably have more than 12," said Williams when asked about the 12 offensive boards. "Probably double it."

Setting aside the comment about Tennessee's offensive rebounds (which we'll get to in our TN preview), it probably wasn't that bad of a thing for IPFW to get 12 offensive rebounds. If anything, there should be a little concern because IPFW is a pretty poor offensive rebounding team, so MU should have actually held them to a lower percentage. However, Marquette dominated on offensive rebounding percentage (50% vs 27.9%). In addition, IPFW missed forty shots, so there were a lot of rebounds to grab! Despite the 12 offensive rebounds, this was the fourth best defensive performance on the defensive glass.

How good is it to get 19 points and 18 rebounds?

Finally, the official story after the game was about Hayward's big game, especially on the glass. Rightly so, because frankly, those are big numbers, and it was the most rebounds since Amal McCaskill grabbed the same number in 1995. However, I'd like to note that those factors alone don't tell the whole story. In fact, Wesley quietly had a game that was almost as productive in five fewer minutes.

Lazar - ORtg (106.8) ; DRtg (67.1) ; Net points (8.3)
Wesley - ORtg (127.8) ; DRtg (57.6) ; Net points (7.9)

Wesley was more efficient both offensively and defensively. How so? Lazar missed 8 shots, had four turnovers, and only one assist. Meanwhile, on top of nine rebounds, Wesley had four assists, three blocks, two steals, and a single turnover (no - not making that joke).

I certainly don't want to take away from Lazar's rebound production. After all, tying a 13 year record is a big deal. It is definitely not a bad thing to get 18 rebounds. My point is that the whole story is somewhat different, and that net contributions can come in a variety of ways. I'd rather give credit to Wesley and Lazar, instead of just Lazar.

If a team devours another cupcake on Saturday

and the CS bloggers are busy conjuring up holiday cheer with their families --- well, you don't get much coverage of said victory.

Briefly -- MU stomped the IPFW Mastadons 69-50 on Saturday powered by Lazar Hayward's insane double-double of 19 points and 18 boards. Once again, the Fantastic Four each scored in double figures. Once again the rest of the roster was largely ineffective, contributing just 16 points (and 12 rebounds) in a combined 95 minutes of action.

With the win MU moves to 8-1 on the season. Next up is a high-profile out of conference tilt against the eighth-ranked Tennessee Volunteers tomorrow night at a 'neutral' site in Nashville. Tipoff for tomorrow's game is set for 8:30pm CT. More on that later.

Finally, congratulations to super-duper CrackedSidewalks contributor Kevin Buckley for being named the Season Ticket Holder of the Game this past Saturday. Months ago Kevin submitted a dissertation on the science of ticket package assembly to the athletic department, enabling him to beat back a talented field of several thousand Marquette fans to claim this esteemed honor. Below is a shot of Kevin and his youngest son accepting this major award at the Bradley Center.

IPFW Preview

Missed our post yesterday? Here is some additional information getting ready for IPFW, including game notes, podcast links, and a Rosiak blog entry.

Rosiak has a feature for the morning paper talking about how the starters are cranking out the minutes. It's interesting, but are the starters really playing that much more?

This year
McNeal 32 min/game, Matthews 31.4, James 29.1 and Hayward 28.6.

Taking a look at last year's numbers
McNeal 30.2, Matthews 28.8, James 30.3, and Hayward 25.4

No offense to Todd, but it's not as though the numbers are all that significant in terms of difference so far. Sure, the big four all played a TON of minutes in the UW game. However, in the cupcake games, the starters play far less, which is causing the average to be not that far off. Luckily, this is the month of December. Honestly, I think the bigger story has been the lack of contribution from anyone not named McNeal, Matthews, James, or Hayward. In fact, I don't calculate any of the other players on the team as "net positive" contributors.

Anyways, moving onto the numbers, I calculate MU as a 95% favorite to win the game tomorrow. MU's offense should be a little stagnant (~1.06 points per possession), but not by much. The expectation is that the defense should be stronger (0.80 points per possession). Here are the statistical keys to the game tomorrow.
#1 - Limit IPFW's eFG% - their Pomeroy rank for eFG% is #195. Their one area of real strength is their three point shooting , where IPFW hits 37.7% from behind the arc. However, after some early struggles, Marquette is up to #45 at three point defense
#2 - Marquette's eFG% - MU is ranked #100. How well will Marquette put the ball in the basket tomorrow?
#3 - Limit IPFW's OR% - this is an area where the Mastadon's are terrible (ranked #324). Expect to see very few offensive rebounds, as in less than eight total by IPFW

Pretty basic.... prevent shots, make shots, and limit offensive rebounds. Again, although IPFW will put up a fight, we should all expect Marquette to win fairly comfortably and then we can move onto the big test in Nashville.

Friday Update - getting ready for IPFW

Hey there... it's been a slow week both here on Cracked Sidewalks and at MUScoop.com. There's just not a lot going on with the long break between the UW@Madison game and the game tomorrow. Hope that the students are doing well with their finals and will be ready to let off a little steam.

Good news, though, because the team kicks off with two games in the next four days. Tomorrow, the team wraps up a three-game homestand with a game against IPFW. Last year, Marquette won 80-56. Here is the official announcement from Marquette, complete with game notes, and two podcasts (Buzz and Burke). Rosiak also chips in with his own blog entry about the game. Check out the link to see what IPFW actually stands for, as well as some info about IPFW.

In Buzz' podcast and the Rosiak blog, Coach Williams mentions that IPFW just won on the road 63-46 at Valpo, which probably sounds impressive to Marquette fans considering how we needed Dominic James to score the last 18 points of the game for us to barely escape on our last trip. However, Valpo just isn't that good (#281 Pomeroy), so I am less impressed. They're playing worse than CMU, UNI, and UWM. It's not as though IPFW is that good either, although they are the best (#217) of all the cupcakes so far. We'll have more on the matchups in our IPFW preview tomorrow.

Rosiak also mentions that if you're hoping Joe Fulce and Chris Otule will be back by the Tennessee game, don't count on it. Buzz doesn't expect either player back until the Presbyterian game (12/28), and even then he expects them to be bad.

Speaking of the Tennessee game, Marquette travels down to the "neutral site of Nashville" next Tuesday as part of the SEC-Big East Invitational. There will be four games as part of this year's event, with two games on Tuesday in Nashville and two games next Thursday in Cincinnati. All games will be on either ESPN or ESPN2. It goes without saying that this is going to be a huge test for Marquette, but I'm sure that the coaching staff won't let the team look past IPFW.

Finally, pay attention to the Season Ticket Holder of the Game for tomorrow's IPFW matchup. Cracked Sidewalks' own Kevin Buckley will be on the court to receive the honor. Congrats, Kevin... I guess buying tickets for your friends/family by the gross added up.

MU Beats IPFW 80-56

Marquette continued on its "taking care of business" parade, beating the Mastodons by a bunch of point on a sleepy Monday at the Bradley Center to go 8-1 on the season.

Dominic James was superlative, scoring 17 in 29 minutes, with 6 assists, including a pretty 4 point play. Hayward, Matthews, and Coobie all hit double digits in the 24 point drubbing. Added into the mix was 39 deflections and a whopping 50 rebounds.

Trend Blackledge had some very nice minutes, with 4 rebounds and a block and two steals in 10 minutes.

A definite concern is Marquette's FT shooting. MU went 12-23 tonight, as well as 21-38 two days ago. This cannot continue when Big East games start, 3 weeks from now.

AP Recap, Box Score, Play by Play
ESPN / AP Photo Gallery
Todd Rosiak's JSOnine Recap

Here's 40 seconds of the game that should be on Sports Center tonight:

IUPUFW Preview - Quick Hits

As we continue through cupcake season, here are the Top Five Numbers to Know for IPFW

One - Number of times a team has gotten to 40% Offensive Rebounding % against IPFW

• IPFW has opponents average 30% on OR% defense (this is #63 out of all D1 schools)
• IPFW's OR% Defense was even better before Michigan State got 44%
  
• Marquette is averaging over 40% on OR% for the season
• This is the key matchup of the game - look for us to exploit !
  

281 - IP Fort Wayne's ranking at eFG defense

• Teams are averaging 54.0% against IPFW
• Marquette is ranked top 10% for eFG% offense at 55.8%
  

Four - Number of RPI Top 100 teams that IUPU Fort Wayne has faced this year

• Wisconsin (54), Valparaiso (65), Nebraska (71), Michigan State (15)
  

28 - This is the amount of points that IPFW lost by to Wisconsin

• If we don't defeat IPFW by the same margin (or better), it means we aren't as good as Wisconsin. No, wait. No, it doesn't. ha!
  
  

Two - Days of Rest for IPFW (just like Marquette).

• They just played in East Lansing, where they gave MSU a good game, but still lost 79 - 57
  

They key matchup to look for against IUPU Fort Wayne is how Marquette does on the Offensive Rebounds. Defensive Rebounding seems to be a particular strength for IUPUFW. We should look out for threes from this team, but other than that, expect us to win handily.

Links

Rosiak's Recap of Sac State has some info on IPFW

gomarquette.com preview

IPFW Game Notes

AP Preview