(with a bonus McNeal is a stud edition)
Numbers for all five games of the post-season
When we look at the final numbers for the post-season, there are several interesting things to note. Unfortunately, the numbers do not say that we actually won our final game. First, our effective Field Goal % defense was worse than our opponents. However, our Offensive Rebounding percentage (OR%) was significantly better. Returning to the formula that worked in the non-conference part of the season, Marquette did an excellent job on the boards. Finally, our opponents didn't turn the ball over as much, and actually had an advantage over MU in this area.
What happened to the turnovers?
As we have covered in a previous post about turnovers and Marquette, a turnover rate above 20% for our opponents usually means we win. During the strong part of the last twelve games, Marquette was tremendous at forcing turnovers. However, this ability went away especially in the post-season. The graph above shows two trends. The first trend (line) shows our opponent's average turnover rate. Marquette's opponents were averaging a turnover rate well above 20%, which then slipped going into the post season.
The second trend (bar) shows our ability to influence turnovers. As an example, an opponent that usually averages 20% turnover rate but had a 25% turnover rate against Marquette would mean that Marquette influenced the turnover rate by 5%. This trend mimics the previous trend, but clearly highlights that Kentucky and Stanford did a better than normal job protecting the ball against Marquette.
Cracked Sidewalks wonders if this is particular to Marquette, or if teams in general just value the ball better in the NCAA tournament. If the latter, the implication is that an aggressive defense based on generating steals may be susceptible come tourney time.
But At least Offensive Rebounding came back strong
Offensive Rebounding for Marquette was an up and down affair during the season. There is no doubt, however, that it was one of the keys for our victories in the post-season. For Marquette to out-rebound Stanford shows just how well the team was doing in this area of play. After all, Stanford is one of the top rebounding teams in the country.
Individual Player Ratings - or McNeal is a Stud
Look, it's no secret that McNeal was a stud over the end of the season, but when we look at the numbers it really stands out. In the post-season, Marquette had a total of 10 net points, meaning that the final margin of all five games was MU +10. Jerel had a positive net point contribution of THIRTY FRICKING POINTS. Pretty much everyone else was either neutral or negative. David Cubillan, in particular, had a very rough end to the season.
Taking his game to the next level...
This graph shows exactly how McNeal took his game to the next level over the end of the season. James finished with the second most net points on the team, but McNeal just was incredible, with net positive contributions in every single game over the last twelve games. Well done, Jerel... well done.
Thursday, March 27, 2008
Post-season Numbers - Where are my turnovers?
Saturday, March 22, 2008
ARRRRRRRRRRGH..........
gut-wrenching loss on a remarkable shot in overtime......heck of a game. I am sick to my stomach.
Friday, March 21, 2008
On Golden Pond....a look back at Thursday
What a relief. I'm thrilled with the win but more relieved then anything. Relieved for the staff, relieved for the fans but most of all the players. The last two NCAA appearances were tough on MU. Significant injuries and youth played a big role and today they had to take on one of the giant programs of all-time. It was weird seeing Kentucky out there as the underdog but in a sense I was glad MU played someone with that kind of pedigree. Not that there was a chance MU would come into this game overconfident, but anything extra to pump them up was a good thing in my mind. As it turns out, not a bad day at all....let's take a look back at the sites and sounds of today.
The Pep Rally - 9:15am DoubleTree Hotel Anaheim, California
Pulled into the hotel and the cheerleaders, band and PRN's favorite mascot were outside the lobby in full throat. Managed to get inside and spotted a few friendly faces, including soon to be superstar sports agent Bill Robers (MU alum) and his lovely wife. Gerry Boyle, Father Wild, Greg Kliehbon (sp?) were there along with many faces from other trips over the years. Good turnout for a 2000 mile trip with a few So. Cal alumni as well.
Found Bill Cords in the crowd and spoke with him for about 10 minutes. He looks terrific. Well rested, healthy...what retirement should be. But you could tell that even though he's not the AD any longer, he was definitely into this event and the game. You can't just drop your life's work because you aren't punching a time card any longer. Always good to talk to him. He helped rebuild a winner when it looked hopeless at times.
About 9:30am the players started coming down through the lobby and outside to the bus. I captured a few videos showing them on their way to the most important game of the season.
After they loaded the bus, they were given a police escort from Anaheim's finest over to the Honda Center. Meanwhile the fans retreated back into the hotel for a pep talk from Jack Harbaugh.
The Pep Talk
You could tell this guy was a lifelong coach. I've heard him give a few of these before, but today's was very good. My video is terrible and I'm hoping someone else has some better clips. He started off by introducing his son, former NFL QB and current Stanford head football coach, Jim Harbaugh to the audience.
Jack then went into what today means. What it means especially for the seniors. For Barro, for Fitzgerald, for Blackledge. I'll post the video if I get it because I can't do it justice. It just struck a chord for me personally. He said the last four years we have been Barro's family and his teammates have been his brothers. Today could be his last game every with this family and these brothers. He would bring it all to the game, every last bit of energy. The same with Fitz and Lawrence. It was well stated. Maximum effort.
He then implored us all to make the Honda Center our home, to scream and yell and make our guys feel like it was our building. He divided the room into two and had a mini-competition between the two sides in terms of loudness. The fans were ready at this point...bring on the game.
Bumping into Joanie...cute story
So we leave the conference room and my wife tells me that the woman she saw yesterday at the Block of Orange (a large So Cal mall)shopping was in the room where the pep talk just happened. I asked her to describe which one. She said the gal with brown hair and the little boy. I started to laugh....you mean "THAT ONE"?
She replied, "yes".
Well, here's the background. Yesterday my wife tells me when I get home from work that she bumped into a Marquette fan at the mall while she was shopping with a girlfriend. My wife made a comment to her that it was great to see a MU fan and that her husband (me) went to MU, etc, etc. Well, my wife asked her yesterday if she was going to the game today and if she was all squared away with tickets. LOL. Joanie said she was all taken care of.
So that leads us back to today. I tell my wife, well honey, that's Joanie Crean...the wife of our head coach and I think not only is she going to the game today, her ticket situation is probably all squared away too.
Just then Joanie comes out, sees my wife and I think they had the 24 hour mall flashback for one second as they recognized each other. She was super nice, spoke to us for a few minutes and brought Reilly over. Very nice family. Very generous with her time.
Off to the Honda Center
So we got into my truck and gave a lift to Tim Vetscher and three other MU supporters. Vetscher worked as a student for me in 1997 selling season tickets to MU faithful. Now he's a television reporter in Phoenix....always good to see Tim. He participates on MU scoop from time to time.
We arrived at the Honda Center at 10:25am just before the doors opened.
My wife and I had never attended a Marquette game together in 10 years...at least not sitting together. When I worked at MU during the games, she was usually on the other side of the arena with our 3 month old son in the baby bjorn...so today was going to test our marriage.
We waited the hour for the game to tip off, I was nervous and she was the rock that she always is.
Attendance was quite sparse from what I'm used to at the Bradley Center and hosting those first two rounds. Milwaukee really does a super job of supporting the NCAA tournament.
At 11:25 they did the national anthem by the the MU band...well done. That was followed by player introductions.
I won't get into the game itself, most others have already done that. I did capture (poorly) a few final videos of the last seconds of the game including my comment "FINALLY" that is caught on video....it's been awhile and it's good to finally get another NCAA tournament win. The MU fans were ecstatic and giving Joe Crawford props for a tremendous game.
Now we've got a day off to figure out how to handle two 7 footers who have pushed UCLA to the brink twice in the last 14 days. It's good to be in the NCAAs again...and winning.
Saturday, March 15, 2008
Ray Floriani wraps up Marquette at MSG
The following is the latest contribution from Ray Floriani, a New Jersey-based freelance basketball reporter.
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Marquette is out and home. Next is Selection Sunday where Tom Crean & co. will learn their seed, opponent and destination. A few observations on last night’s semifinal action.
Thought a big key to Pitt-Marquette was the Panthers getting out of the gate quickly. It’s tough to spot an opponent, especially the quality of Pitt, a double digit lead early in the contest.
Marquette showed a lot of grit and determination in battling back. What looked like a potential rout was a one possession game in the final minutes. Jerel McNeal continued his fine play through the tournament with 17 points. Dominic James scored his first points with 7:39 left in the game. James did finish with eight and every point was critical during the late game run.
While James struggled to score, thought Lazar Hayward came up with a nice game. The 6-6 sophomore scored 10 points while grabbing 6 boards. Hayward was effective from the perimeter as well as in the lane.
Sam Young. What can you say ? He’s had a great week and if the Panthers win tonight, should be the tournament MVP. The Pitt forward had a game high 22 points and a huge rebound with 34 seconds to go and the game still for the taking. The 6-6 junior is a tough matchup problem because he can take opponents off the dribble and is very strong inside. He was a major difference for Pitt.
Game was 67 possessions with Pitt enjoying a 102-91 efficiency advantage. Significant numbers (read more below) were Marquette’s 47% offensive rebounding percentage and Pitt‘s 16% turnover ratio. Marquette couldn’t match that last number with 8 assists 16 turnovers and a 24% TO rate.
Poise. Pitt thrives in the bright lights of MSG. They have a number of New York area players and love competing at the ‘world’s most famous arena’. Usually teams that surrender a significant lead will succumb to the pressure of the fast charging opponent and those bright lights which suddenly feel uncomfortably hot. Not the Panthers who treat the Garden as a second home.
Quotable: Jamie Dixon , the Pitt coach…”Marquette battled back and we were fortunate to win because they out rebounded us 47-32 and had 21 offensive boards. The big difference for us was taking care of the ball (11 turnovers).”
In the opener it was vintage Georgetown over West Virginia. Roy Hibbert went scoreless a day earlier against Villanova but tonight the Hoyas went to their big man early and often. Hibbert
Hoyas did a great job keeping fresh bodies on WVU’s Joe Alexander who had 12 points but struggled through a 5 of 16 shooting night.
Great to meet several fans and run into friends in the Marquette section. Always good to touch base and talk basketball in general with ’NY Warrior’.
Final note on Tom Crean. Ran into Jeff Nix a few times this week. A good friend Nix served a number of years in the Knick organization from assistant coach to scout and front office. Late this Summer he was let go in another colossal move of stupidity by the Knick organization. Seems Nix is involved helping out with Tom Crean’s radio show. “When it happened Tom was the first to call me,” Nix recalled . “He gave me the ’olive branch’ and said I could help with his show. That allowed me to get right back into it (the game ) again.”
Just another case of Crean the intense competitor showing his sincere caring off the floor.
Read why the Knicks fired Nix.
Panthers ground Golden Eagles in Big East Semis
Marquette's bid to reach its first Big East Tournament final fell short last night with a 68-61 loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers in Madison Square Garden.
Pittsburgh was led by the steady, productive Sam Young. Young, the best player in the BET this year, dominated the Golden Eagles on his way to 22 points and four rebounds in 39 minutes of action. Young was an impossible matchup for Marquette -- too big for Jerel McNeal, too quick for Dwight Burke.
The Panthers, who never trailed, raced out to a 16-4 lead early and held MU comfortably at bay for most of the night. The Golden Eagles closed to within three points in the game's final minute but the Panthers, who shot an impressive 49% from the field, always had an answer.
Meanwhile the MU offense struggled all night. The Golden Eagles shot a miserable 31% from the field and lost the turnover battle (16-11). MU out-rebounded the Panthers 41-30.
Marquette was led once more by Jerel McNeal with 17 points. Wesley Matthews and Lazar Hayward each chipped in 10 points, while Dominic James finished with eight. Dwight Burke played well off the bench again last night, grabbing a team-high ten rebounds to go along with four points.
Emotions ran high for Marquette in the second half, and lead official Tim Higgins threw gasoline on the fire (did he or didn't he try to eject Jerel McNeal -- the subject of a pair of lousy calls by the silver-haired court master). The predictably thin-skinned Higgins clearly came unglued in the midst of an emotional game and delivered an embarrassing effort on national television, which is nothing new. Rosiak details all of this in his entry linked below.
Regardless, in the end the Panthers were the better team on Friday night and Sam Young was the best player on the floor.
Next up for MU (24-9) is Selection Sunday where the Golden Eagles hope to claim a #4 seed. The Bracket Project has MU slotted as a 6.
AP recap
Box Score
Rosiak's recap
Rosiak's outstanding blog recap
Thursday, March 13, 2008
MU advances to play Notre Dame in the BET
MU overcame the feisty Seton Hall Pirates 67-54 to advance to the quarterfinal round of the Big East tourney. In one of the ugliest games in recent memory, Jerel McNeal's sublime performance was the difference. The slashing guard led MU with 21 points, hauled in 9 boards and dished out four assists. Dominic James landed up with 11 points, five boards and four steals -- each of which came in the last three minutes of regulation to help seal the victory. Lazar Hayward came through with a big second half, earning another double/double with 15 and 10.
The story of the night was offensive rebounding where MU snared 21 boards on their way to a 52-29 advantage on the glass. Despite that dominance, MU was unable to convert consistently (the Golden Eagles only shot 34% from the floor) and was miserable at the charity stripe (20-35, 57%).
Survive and advance.
Seton Hall Media Updates
- Box Score
- AP recap
- Rosiak's recap
- Adam Zagoria blogs the game
- Ray Floriani on Day One at the BET
- Rosiak's blog on the night
MU/ND Game One
MU knocks off ND - game recap.
MU knocks off ND --numbers recap.
ND knocks off MU - game recap
ND knocks off MU -- numbers recap.
Sunday, March 09, 2008
Syracuse Numbers Recap
Don't know what all of these numbers mean? Take a look at our explanation for Team Stats and Individual Stats first.
Four Factors Review
Despite looking lost and confused for much of the game against the Syracuse 2-3 zone, Marquette had an about average day offensively. It was worse than our season average, but still not that bad. As evidenced by the 118.2 efficiency that Syracuse achieved, this was a game lost on the defensive end. Interestingly enough, although Syracuse is one of the top teams in the country at offensive rebounding percentage, that was the only one of the four factors that Marquette won. Thanks to their dominating inside presence, Syracuse was able to achieve an eFG% of 63%. In addition, Syracuse enjoyed a notable advantage at Free Throw Rate.
What really hurts, however, was that Marquette lost the Turnover Rate battle. Remember that for the season, Syracuse averages a turnover rate of 21.2%, so they did better than that against our vaunted defense. This is an aspect that Marquette almost always wins.
Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Trends
First of all, please note that none of these numbers include results against Florida Gulf Coast. It was a cupcake game, it skews the numbers, and I don't think that it's representative of how well the team is playing. The story is not pretty here. Marquette is heading in the wrong direction at the wrong time. Our offense and our defense are both getting worse.
Underachieving
Our final Big EAST numbers for Offensive and Defensive Efficiency are 104.8 (Offense) and 98.9 (Defense). A team with those offensive and defensive numbers should have a final record of 11.9 - 6.1. Given that Marquette finished with a final record of 11-7, this means that the team underachieved.
effective Field Goal Percentage Trends
Hey, look! More bad news. Our offensive and defensive effective Field Goal percentages are also heading in the wrong directions again. Not only that, but...
Offensive Rebounding Trends
... the roller coaster that has been our offensive rebounding percentage is once again on the decline. Our offensive rebounding is getting worse and our opponents' offensive rebounding is getting better.
Individual Player Ratings
The only player that had a decent game was Jerel McNeal, but this is also an area where the defensive ratings fall short. Because the Box Score doesn't capture the number of times that Donte Greene scored an easy post-up basket on McNeal, his defensive ratings show up well. Everyone else pretty much had a hand in the seventeen point loss, and the worst impact on the game came from our floor general.
Summary
I'm decidedly bearish on Marquette's prospects for the post-season. Almost all of the numbers are heading in the wrong direction, and our team's strengths are in decline. The team has even underachieved according to those numbers. Not only that, but ignoring the numbers, Marquette is still only 3-8 against the RPI Top 50 teams. I'm not trying to be "doom and gloom" here, but if MU was a stock, I'd short it. It's too bad that fanhood isn't something that people can just dump and eliminate losses.
Of course, tomorrow is a new day, and the Big EAST Tournament is another chance to start fresh. Looks like we're going to face Seton Hall (according to Rosiak) for the third time this season. Game time will be 8 pm on Wednesday at Madison Square Garden.
Wednesday, March 05, 2008
How to Read Numbers Recaps - Individual Stats
In Part One of "How to Read Numbers Recaps", we looked the breakdown of the team-based stats. After all, basketball is primarily a team game. However, there is obviously a view of how well individual players contribute to the team's success. We attempt to capture this view through the individual ratings.
Below is the basic table that we look at after every game. It may seem busy, because even the walk-ons played, but there is a lot of information contained within this table. For this example, we are going to use the game against Florida Gulf Coast (3/4/08).
What do all of these categories mean, anyways?
Minutes - Self-explanatory
Usage - Usage is the percentage of total possessions that a player consumes. If the game has 67 possessions, how many of those 67 possessions does each player use? Typically, usage shouldn't be any higher than 20-25%. The general idea is that the higher a player's usage, the less efficient they become. It's rare that someone can combine a high usage with a high offensive rating, and these types of players are superstars (like Michael Jordan).
Offensive Rating (ORtg) - Offensive Rating is based on several elements. A player's offensive rating revolves around their role in the offense, how important assists are to their efforts, and how well they do at scoring field goals. On a per-game view, Offensive Ratings should always be compared against the team Offensive Efficiency. If the player has a higher score than the team Offensive Efficiency, then they boosted the average. If the player has a lower score than the team, then that player was a drag on the offense. This higher the offensive rating, the better that player did.
Individual Points Produced - Consider the following scenario: Dominic James makes an assist to Ousmane Barro, who then scores. The team gets two points, but both DJ and Barro should get some credit for producing the two points. After all, Barro doesn't score unless DJ gets him the assist. How does one divide up the credit for the two points? What about the role of offensive rebounds in producing points? Individual points produced attempts to answer these types of questions. Players who get offensive rebounds or give lots of assists get more credit for producing points. Players who receive lots of assists get docked on producing points.
Defensive Rating (DRtg) - Defensive rating is somewhat limited in its capability, and is best used as an approximation. After all, box scores do not presently show any statistics for scenarios where a player is guarded and then misses or makes a shot. Therefore, what is done is to baseline defensive stats off of the team Defensive Efficiency, because the team plays defense. Then, individual player stats are used to adjust individual defensive rating. A player gets credit for defensive statistics like steals, blocks, or defensive rebounds, or they get dinged for committing fouls or not collecting defensive statistics. The lower the defensive rating, the larger the impact that player had on the game.
Net Points Added - In the Florida Gulf Coast game, Marquette ended up winning by a margin of thirty points. Which players had the greatest impact on that win margin? The answer is found in Net Points Added. In every Individual numbers recap, the players are sorted based on net points added from highest to lowest. If a player is positive net points, that player had a positive impact on the game. If a player is negative net points, that player had a negative impact on the game. For the most accurate view, this should always be viewed in the context of Net Points and Individual Points Produced.
Final Note - The total points produced and the total net points added will not always add up to the actual final tally of points and win margin. That's because basketball is a team game and the "team" has to get credit for some of these results too.
Let's look at some examples...
Example - Good production (Lazar Hayward)
In the game, Lazar had box score statistics of 18 points on 6-12 shooting (3-5 from three, 3-6 on FT). He had 11 rebounds (3 offensive), one foul, one turnover, and two steals.
- Lazar had a usage of about 18%, which is around one-fifth of all possessions in the game
- His offensive rating of 116.3 was better than the team average
- Despite scoring 18 points, Lazar only gets credit for producing 13.8 points
- Lazar's defensive rating was much better than the team's defensive efficiency, largely thanks to his eight defensive rebounds
- Out of the 13.8 points produced, Lazar's net impact on the game was 10.4 points of win margin
I'm not picking on Cubillan... he just had the lowest net points score from this game. In the game, David had zero points on 0-1 shooting (0-1 from three), with one assist, one turnover, and one steal.- David had a very limited usage in the game at less than 3%
- His offensive rating was much worse than the team average
- Despite not scoring, he gets 0.6 points credit from his assist
- David's defensive rating was also worse than the team average
- His net impact on the game was negative 1.8 points. This means that the other players on the team had to contribute more in order to overcome this negative impact
How to Read Numbers Recaps - Team Stats
We're going to do something a little different today. The purpose of this article, besides just a recap on Florida Gulf Coast, is to give an overview of the various stats we use and what they mean. In other words, how does one read the numbers recaps? We'll do the review in two parts, team and individual. This is the team overview.
Background on Basketball Statistics
The Four Factors come from the work done by Dean Oliver, whose book "Basketball on Paper" is like Moneyball for basketball. A lot of the work done by Ken Pomeroy is based on the fundamentals of Dean Oliver. All of the analysis that we do is based on his book as well.
The basic premise is that there are Four Factors that dictate how well a team does. The principles are Field Goal Percentage, Turnovers, Offensive Rebounds, and Free Throws. These are all fundamentals of basketball. However, the key difference for the Four Factors is that they've been modified to reflect possession-based statistics. In other words, a team that plays an extremely slow pace (Georgetown - 62 possessions / game) can now be compared to a team that plays at an extremely fast pace (Tennessee - 72 possessions / game). The team's points per game are not comparable, but their points per possession may be comparable.
What's a possession anyways?
A possession is anything that ends the action on the offensive end of the court. Any field goal attempt, any turnover, or even a Free Throw Attempt is a possession. Offensive rebounds negate possessions (because the player extends action on the offensive end of the court). The simplified equation to calculate possessions is FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA. Pretty basic, right?
Four Factor Review (Example - Florida Gulf Coast Game 3/4/08)
Offensive and Defensive Efficiency
The first thing to start with is the Efficiency review. Whichever team wins the Efficiency battle wins the game 100% of the time. Efficiency is as simple as how many points a team scores per 100 possessions. Another format of this is just points / possessions.
Against Florida Gulf Coast, we scored 67 points in just around 66 possessions. That works out to 1.01 points / possession, or an Offensive Efficiency of 100.9. Typically, an Offensive Efficiency of 100 is average, and an Offensive Efficiency above 110 is considered good. Therefore, our offensive output was around average.
Florida Gulf Coast scored only 37 points in 64 possessions, which is 0.58 points per possession, or an MU Defensive Efficiency of 58. Obviously, the lower a team's Defensive Efficiency, the better it did. I usually consider 90 to be the threshold for a poor efficiency outing, so FGC did not do very well at all, thanks to Marquette's defense.
Rating Teams and Tracking Trends
Pomeroy rates all of the teams on the basis of Efficiency Margin. This is simply the difference between Offensive Efficiency and Defensive Efficiency. In this game, our Efficiency Margin was 42.9 because the game was a blowout. In games that are fairly close, the Efficiency Margin is obviously close as well.
At Cracked Sidewalks, we track a moving average of Marquette's efficiencies to provide a view of how well the team is playing throughout the season. One always wants to see trends of Marquette's offensive efficiency sloping up, and of Marquette's defensive efficiency sloping down. In addition, by looking at the Efficiency breakdown following a game, one can tell if it was a game decided on the offensive end of the court (both teams with efficiencies above 100) or the defensive end (both teams with efficiencies less than 100).
The Four Factors
effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) - This is the same as regular Field Goal Percentage, but it takes into consideration the extra value of a three point basket. The example I always use is that a team gets the same amount of points (12) if they shoot 4/12 from three as if they shot 6/12 from inside the arc. eFG% adds in the extra value.
This is the most important of the four factors and it plays the greatest role in determining which team wins. I usually look above 55% as a good outing, and below 45% as a poor outing. Against, Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette won the effective Field Goal battle at 52.1%. Our game FG% was 45.8%. The formula for this calculation is (FGM + 0.5*3PM) / FGA.
Turnover Rate (TO Rate) - Turnover Rate is turnovers / possessions. A turnover rate of 20% is considered average. Less than 20% is considered good, and higher than 20% is considered bad. Against Marquette, Florida Gulf Coast turned the ball over 39% of the time, or one out of every two-three possessions. Marquette also did a poor job protecting the ball in this game.
Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) - This is a little more sophisticated than just looking at total rebounds or a comparison of offensive rebounds between teams. The basic idea is that every defensive rebound is a potential offensive rebound (and vice versa). Consider for example:
- Team A misses forty shots, and grabs 15 offensive rebounds. This means that the opponent secured 25 defensive rebounds. OR% for Team A is 37.5% = 15 / (15 +25)
- Team B misses thirty shots, and grabs 15 offensive rebounds. This means that the opponent secures 15 defensive rebounds. OR% for Team B is 50% = 15 / (15 + 15)
Against FGC, we had 10 offensive rebounds and they had 17 defensive rebounds. Our OR% was 37.0% = 10 / (10 + 17). Florida Gulf Coast had 13 offensive rebounds and we had 23 defensive rebounds. FGC's OR% was 36.1% = 13 / (13 + 23). Even though Florida Gulf Coast had more offensive rebounds, we did better at offensive rebounding percentage (marginally).
Free Throw Rate (FTR) - There are a couple different ways of looking at Free Throw Rate. For consistency, the equation is Free Throw Attempts / Field Goal Attempts. In other words, what percent of the time did a field goal result in a free throw attempt? Against FGC, we took 24 free throw attempts against 48 field goal attempts. FGC took 10 free throw attempts against 47 field goal attempts.
In our next view, we'll take a look at how to read the individual player ratings through the FGC review.
Eagles top Eagles
Marquette stomped on FGCU last night 67-37 to improve to 22-7 on the season. Lazar Hayward led MU with 18 points and 11 rebounds.
In their final home game, the MU seniors:
- Barro: 7 points, 8 boards in 22 minutes
- Fitzgerald: 3 points, 3 boards in 21 minutes
- Blackledge: 4 points, 3 rebounds in 8 minutes
- Brice: 2 minutes and a pack of donuts
MU resumes the season on Saturday with a visit to the Carrier Dome.
Here are two videos .. one is the Senior Montage they put together .. update: TT grabbed the video off TWS in near perfect format.
The other video is the introductions and speeches from each Senior.
AP recap
Monday, March 03, 2008
Recapturing Momentum (plus numbers)
What do we have here (again)?
As NYWarrior eloquently pointed out in , "What do we have here?", it's true that Marquette is susceptible to bad matchups. His basic conclusion is that Marquette definitely has a ceiling, and that we are likely to face a first round loss unless the matchup is good. NYWarrior is absolutely right. After all, we are a team that is only 3-7 against top 50 teams. When it matters, we don't beat the good teams. There is legitimate concern that this team will not get it done in the NCAA.
What is causing even more consternation is that this is the most likely window for the team. With the loss of Barro, Fitz, and probably James, we'll lose our most experienced post player and one of the most important members of the team. The post play will be Burke and sophomores/freshmen, and our point guard options will be Acker/Cubillan and freshmen. Despite the return of Matthews/McNeal/Hayward, I fully expect some sort of downslide next year. Couple that with the mantra oft-repeated by Crean-haters of "zero wins without Wade", and the fear is that the team's best opportunity just isn't good enough and the trend of zero wins post-Wade will continue. No true Marquette fan wants that.
Meeting Expectations
I want just one win this year in the NCAA tournament. That is "meeting expectations". It's kind of a bitter pill, honestly, because I had hoped, when the Amigos were freshmen, of a potential Elite Eight / Final-Four type run this year. Now, Sweet Sixteen or beyond is "exceeds expectations". This team has potential and could be special, but let's start with just one win.
Recapturing the Momentum
Heading into the Georgetown game, NYWarrior and I agreed on the following. Excluding Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette needed to win two of the next three games for us to feel confident about the team. This meant beating either Georgetown or Syracuse and winning the first game in the Big East Tournament. The logic behind this statement is that failure to win two out of three would portend that the team was likely to suffer yet another late season fade and NCAA first round flameout.
The opportunity is still there for this team. It's just that the margin of error has been eliminated. Thankfully, the team has the ability to shake out the cobwebs against Florida Gulf Coast. Then, it's time for Marquette to go and step on the dreams of a team just fighting to make the NCAA tournament. Given the right matchups in the BET, MU could even make the semis and win a few games. But it all starts with winning the next two (really three) games and recapturing that momentum heading into the NCAA tournament.
Give Us a Reason to Believe
Here's the deal with the team. We're searching, hoping, and praying for a reason to believe in this team. On Saturday, in front of 19K rabid fans and a national audience, we screamed and we believed and got collectively kicked in the teeth. The team and the fans are heartbroken. Marquette was close to breaking through with a statement win but just fell short.
It's gut check time in Marquette-land.
Give us a reason to maintain that hope. Come out strong against Florida Gulf Coast. Win against Syracuse and we'll believe. The refrain of "We Are Marquette" will ring out loud and clear in Madison Square Garden and wherever we play in the NCAA tournament.
We'll believe that on the first day of the NCAA tournament, MU will meet expectations.
Onto the numbers (with no individual ratings today due to length)
Four Factors Review
Looking at the Four Factors shows something fairly interesting. Each team was able to utilize their strengths. Yet again, Marquette was able to keep their turnovers down and force their opponent into more turnovers than normal. However, Georgetown was able to win the effective Field Goal % battle, which ultimately made the difference. Remember that Georgetown is number one in the country at effective Field Goal defense and number eight in the country at effective Field Goal offense. Although Marquette won the Offensive Rebounding battle and Georgetown won the Free Throw Rate battle, the two percentages were close enough such that the result was a wash.
Of course, there was also another factor at play in the game...
The Fifth Factor
Just kidding, folks. After all, it's not like we've ever complained about officials, ever. Despite what seemed like lots of calls going in Georgetown's favor, Marquette had the opportunity to win and did not. A few more free throws and a non-foul by James and this is all moot.
Time to move on to Florida Gulf Coast and Senior Night. Let's recapture that momentum.
Saturday, March 01, 2008
Georgetown tops Marquette in overtime
Marquette squandered an 11-point second half lead and fell to the Georgetown Hoyas 70-68 in overtime this afternoon in Milwaukee.
The Golden Eagles used trademark defensive pressure to keep Georgetown out of sync for most of the game, but Patrick Ewing Jr's clutch play in the second half and a critical mistake by Dominic James late in regulation gave the Hoyas new life in overtime.
After weathering the Hoyas' late comeback, Marquette scrambled to gain a three point lead, 63-60, with just seconds remaining in regulation. That's when Jonathan Wallace went to work. Dominic James inexplicably fouled Wallace on a three-point attempt with less than three seconds remaining. The GU senior confidently drained all three freebies, tying the game at 63-63 and forcing overtime. Earlier in the second half, James fouled Wallace on a three-point attempt as well.
Late in overtime MU had a chance to tie the game, regaining possession with nine seconds remaining. MU failed to get a shot off, as James indecisively turned the ball over to end the game.
After trailing by 11 midway through the second half, Ewing keyed the Hoyas' revival. The forward buried a pivotal three-pointer to bring the Hoyas to within 54-50 with six minutes to play, and doled out a pair of assists, one to Wallace to give the Hoyas a 56-55 with 3:35 to play, their first lead since early in the opening minutes.
Wesley Matthews paced the Golden Eagles with a season-high 22 points. Jerel McNeal had 17 points, and Dominic James 15. Lazar Hayward was outclassed by DaJuan Summers, going 0-8 from the floor with four rebounds.
Although MU forced 21 Georgetown turnovers, that advantage was negated by the Golden Eagles' poor free throw shooting (61% on 22 of 36 from the stripe).
Wallace and Hibbert led the Hoyas with 20 points each.
With the loss, MU falls to 21-7 overall and 11-6 in the Big East.
Media Updates
Box Score
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
James leads MU past Nova
Dominic James' scintillating 25-point performance led MU to an 85-75 win at Villanova, the Golden Eagles' fourth road win in Big East action. James keyed a 53-point offensive outburst in the second half as MU overcame a seven point halftime deficit, forcing 23 'Nova turnovers in the process. James had 4 assists and a season high 6 steals.
Lazar hit for 15 with 9 rebounds, McNeal for 14 points. Mo Acker was the surprise firecracker off the bench, scoring 12 points in 13 minutes.
With the win MU improved to 21-6 overall and 11-5 in the Big East. Marquette has now won five straight and next hosts Georgetown on Saturday.
More to come later, but here are some media recaps......a great win for MU.
Media Updates
Sunday, February 24, 2008
Rutgers Numbers Recap
Just a quick recap of the numbers for Rutgers, as there is only a short turnaround for tomorrow's big matchup with Villanova. We'll keep it at a team level this evening... no individual recaps tonight. (Although it should be no surprise that McNeal was the statistical stud of the game for the third game in the row)
Four Factors Review
Yup - when you win by 30 you tend to dominate all aspects of the game. Just as the St. John's Free Throw Rate of 93% was garbage, I have to say that the FTR for Rutgers is also garbage. At least the referees were somewhat consistent in this one, because it's not like Marquette shot a whole lot of free throws either. Marquette's defense was in full effect, pushing Rutgers to 31.3% turnover rate... or a turnover one out of every three trips down the court.
Continuing to Trend in the Right Directions
The team continues to trend in the right direction. Now, certainly the stellar offensive and defensive performances against Rutgers helped boost these trend lines, but remember that the lines above also reflect a moving 5-game average. Clearly, the next three games will be a better reflection of how the team is trending, but for now we are hitting on all cylinders.
Current Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings are 113.8 and 88.6, respectively. Those numbers suggest a team that goes 17-1 in conference... which is a nice way of looking at how well the team is playing over the last five games.
And Doing it With Consistency
As we had previously discussed, one of the big concerns for Marquette was their inconsistency. Well, MU continues to play at a high level and do it at a consistent rate. It is not as if MU is winning with high risk strategies, which should be very good news for MU fans.
But it's not all Seashells and Balloons
Unfortunately, there is one negative trend appearing for Marquette. There was a long stretch where Marquette's Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) was improving and our opponents' OR% was declining. For right now, those trends are both heading in the wrong direction. We'll continue to monitor and see how things end up. It's hard to grab a lot of offensive rebounds when you shoot 56% from the floor.
Check back tomorrow morning for the Cracked Sidewalks preview of the Villanova game.
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Marquette blitzes Rutgers to win fourth straight
Marquette opened the second half with a 20-6 run and never looked back, burying the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 78 - 48 in Milwaukee this afternoon. With the win, the Golden Eagles moved to 20-6 on the season and 10-5 in Big East play. Marquette has won at least 10 conference games in each of its first three seasons in the Big East.
Jerel McNeal was electric all afternoon, scoring efficiently and defending with the vigor MU fans crave. McNeal finished with 16 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists and five steals.
The Golden Eagles' offense was terrific, with crisp passing and off-the-ball movement creating open looks throughout the game. Marquette shot an impressive 56% from the floor, and had a remarkable 21 assists on 32 made baskets. Dominic James, hampered by a sprained ankle sustained late in the first half, finished with 13 points and six assists. Wesley Matthews dropped in 12 and Lazar Hayward had 13.
The Golden Eagles inspired second half play was keyed by trademark defensive pressure. The Scarlet Knights struggled to score, needing more than 12 minutes of action to score in double-digits in the second stanza.
Marquette led at the half 35 - 29 despite a poor defensive effort that allowed Rutgers to shoot an uncharacteristic 52% from the field. McNeal led MU with eight points and five assists at the break.
Next up for Marquette is a Big Monday matchup in Philadelphia against the Villanova Wildcats, who defeated UConn today 67-65. Tipoff is scheduled for 6pm on ESPN.
By the way, can somebody at ESPN mute Dickey Simpkins' microphone? He's atrocious. Is he the best that the WWLS can offer?
Media Recaps
AP Recap / Box / Play by Play
Rosiak Wrap
Friday, February 22, 2008
St. John's Numbers Recap
Due to the Steve Cottingham announcement and subsequent Cracked Sidewalks commentary, we're slightly delayed in producing the Numbers Recap for St. Johns.
Four Factors Review
In looking at the Four Factors, we actually found it somewhat surprising that St. John's ended up with a higher effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) than Marquette. We're sure that it didn't help MU to finish with only one FG over the last ten minutes. Marquette, as they do almost every single game, won the battle of turnover rates. Sloppy play managed to force Marquette into a higher percentage than average (18.3%), but we were still below an average rate of 20%. In addition, the strong recent play on the offensive boards continued. This was one of Marquette's non-conference strengths, but we faltered during early conference play. However, MU has won this factor in five of our last six games, and our numbers continue to improve.
Finally, for St. John's to get a Free Throw Rate (FTR) of 93% is utter garbage. Marquette is one of the worst teams in the country at allowing opponents to get to the line (ranking of 285), but that percentage is only at 42.6%. 93% is a number that is nearly twice the average rate of one of the lowest in the country, and it's not like Marquette was fouling excessively at the end in order to catch up. Marquette's offensive FTR was also almost double our average figure of 26.2%. Maybe the refs should have swallowed those whistles a bit and "let them play".
Individual Player Review
We're going to take a look at the Individual Player Review by addressing some recent comments in Rosiak's Blog. We've kind of been waiting for an opportunity to demonstrate that traditional stats may fall short, and his blog recap of St. John's is a nice chance.
Credit where it's due - Rosiak does a nice job giving credit to Mbakwe (1.4 net points - starting his streak of never again having a negative net contribution), McNeal (7.8 net points - mostly on the defensive end), and James (5.4 net points - higher than average Offensive Rating). We'll look at James and McNeal a bit more below.
When traditional stats are misleading - However, Rosiak also says "-- Wesley Matthews attempted just four shots. He hasn't gotten into double figures since Jan. 26 against DePaul." While this is technically true, it's also somewhat misleading. Matthews was a net positive contributor to the game with the highest Offensive Rating on the team. Since the DePaul game, despite being held below double figures, Matthews has had a net-positive contribution in every game except one. This means that Wesley is finding lots of other ways to make a positive impact on the game without scoring.
In addition, Rosiak gives credit to Cubillan and Fitzgerald, even stating that "Dan Fitzgerald was highly productive in 19 minutes, finishing with five points, one rebound, one steal and one charge taken." Granted... charges taken don't show up in the box score, but his overall impact on the game (-0.4) was essentially zero and not highly productive. Furthermore, Cubillan had the worst net contribution of the team (-1.7).
In general, we are big fans of Rosiak and we think he does a great job, but several of his comments were a clear indication of how traditional stats can be misleading.
A Two For One?
After we posted our Review of the Top Four, several blog comments referred to how similar the net contribution paths looked for James and McNeal. Indeed, tracking from Providence to Cincy shows an almost identical trendline. In addition, now that James appears to be back on track, the net contributions from McNeal have started to pick up again. There's nothing definitive that proves the two are explicitly correlated, but the joint trends certainly do suggest that McNeal's production is boosted when James plays better.
This is just one more reason for optimism heading down the stretch... now that James is healthy, we appear to be getting more from Jerel again too.
Thursday, February 21, 2008
Ray Floriani recaps the MU win over St Johns
Ray Floriani, the noted high school and college basketball reporter from New Jersey, covered last night's Marquette win in the Garden for Cracked Sidewalks. Earlier this morning, Ray filed this report:
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The press room coffee is exceptionally strong. Kind of like Starbucks. Stronger the better but I’m not sure what kind of omen that gives on tonight’s contest.
20:00 -15:46 – On the game’s first possession Anthony Mason Jr.’s first shot is rejected by Jerel McNeal who goes coast to coast for a layup. Undaunted, Mason Jr. makes a few nice penetrations. Both clubs start in man to man.
9-6
13-6
20-14
6:32-3:55- Dan Fitzgerald and McNeal bury threes, time out St.John’s. James finishes another penetration layup. The lead is double digits and the boos are audible.
30-16
Half 36-24
Attendance is listed just over 6,000. Factored in are ticket purchasers who are ‘no shows’ because it looks like roughly 4,000 and change. A fair amount of
Possessions : MU 34 St.John’s 37
Offensive Eff. MU 106 St.John’s 65
Second Half:
45-27
53-31
59-44
7:54-3:38- Paris Horne of St.John’s buries a three and cuts the deficit to 12. A shot clock violation by
65-50
Final : Marquette 73 St.John’s 64
Poss : Marquette 69 St.John’s 73
Off. Eff.
McNeal led the way with 20 points while James added 19. Mason jr. paced St.John’s with 20.
Notes from the post-game press conferences
- En route to the interviews I meet a writer from Marquette.com and some fans seated behind the
- Saw legendary Lou Carnesecca en route to interviews. The former St. John’s coach is very gracious and always cordial. Deep down, the situation with the St.John’s program must be devastating him.
- St.John’s coach Norm Roberts was generally pleased with his club’s effort. Roberts noted that St.John’s defended well for most of a possession then