Syracuse Numbers Recap

Don't know what all of these numbers mean? Take a look at our explanation for Team Stats and Individual Stats first.

Four Factors Review

Despite looking lost and confused for much of the game against the Syracuse 2-3 zone, Marquette had an about average day offensively. It was worse than our season average, but still not that bad. As evidenced by the 118.2 efficiency that Syracuse achieved, this was a game lost on the defensive end. Interestingly enough, although Syracuse is one of the top teams in the country at offensive rebounding percentage, that was the only one of the four factors that Marquette won. Thanks to their dominating inside presence, Syracuse was able to achieve an eFG% of 63%. In addition, Syracuse enjoyed a notable advantage at Free Throw Rate.

What really hurts, however, was that Marquette lost the Turnover Rate battle. Remember that for the season, Syracuse averages a turnover rate of 21.2%, so they did better than that against our vaunted defense. This is an aspect that Marquette almost always wins.

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Trends


First of all, please note that none of these numbers include results against Florida Gulf Coast. It was a cupcake game, it skews the numbers, and I don't think that it's representative of how well the team is playing. The story is not pretty here. Marquette is heading in the wrong direction at the wrong time. Our offense and our defense are both getting worse.

Underachieving

Our final Big EAST numbers for Offensive and Defensive Efficiency are 104.8 (Offense) and 98.9 (Defense). A team with those offensive and defensive numbers should have a final record of 11.9 - 6.1. Given that Marquette finished with a final record of 11-7, this means that the team underachieved.

effective Field Goal Percentage Trends

Hey, look! More bad news. Our offensive and defensive effective Field Goal percentages are also heading in the wrong directions again. Not only that, but...

Offensive Rebounding Trends

... the roller coaster that has been our offensive rebounding percentage is once again on the decline. Our offensive rebounding is getting worse and our opponents' offensive rebounding is getting better.

Individual Player Ratings

The only player that had a decent game was Jerel McNeal, but this is also an area where the defensive ratings fall short. Because the Box Score doesn't capture the number of times that Donte Greene scored an easy post-up basket on McNeal, his defensive ratings show up well. Everyone else pretty much had a hand in the seventeen point loss, and the worst impact on the game came from our floor general.

Summary

I'm decidedly bearish on Marquette's prospects for the post-season. Almost all of the numbers are heading in the wrong direction, and our team's strengths are in decline. The team has even underachieved according to those numbers. Not only that, but ignoring the numbers, Marquette is still only 3-8 against the RPI Top 50 teams. I'm not trying to be "doom and gloom" here, but if MU was a stock, I'd short it. It's too bad that fanhood isn't something that people can just dump and eliminate losses.

Of course, tomorrow is a new day, and the Big EAST Tournament is another chance to start fresh. Looks like we're going to face Seton Hall (according to Rosiak) for the third time this season. Game time will be 8 pm on Wednesday at Madison Square Garden.

MU Ends Season with Thumping at Syracuse

Marquette, a pre-season Top 10 team, was picked to compete for the Big East Title, instead ended the season with a whimper, losing at Syracuse by fifteen, 87-72.

Marquette could not stop Syracuse's starters, two of whom hit 20+ points, and 4 hit double digits. Syracuse shot a blistering 58%. On the other side of the court, Syracuse served up a 2-3 zone that, for the 800th time, has proven to be Marquette's kryptonite.

Jerel McNeal had 22 points and 6 rebounds, the only bright spot for Marquette.

While my prediction to finish the BE season 11-7 was derided as pessimistic the time, it turned out to be spot on. Marquette returned their entire 10-6 team from last year, but the team I observed in practices and pre-season scrimmages this year appeared to have the exact same strengths and weaknesses as last year's squad. Same team = same results.

However .. while the team met my "expectations" I am disappointed, as they were low expectations. 5 of our 7 BE losses were blowout-double-digit thumpings. 9 of our 11 wins came against the lower half of the Big East. While we had no "bad" losses, we had few wins versus quality teams, winning 3 of 11 games versus Top 50, a stat that does not bode well for the NCAA Tournament.

Many thought we'd compete for the Big East Title. Instead, we ended firmly in the middle of the pack. Three years of the "Big 3" have gained us a 4th place finish, 5th place, and now 6th place. Time is slipping away.

Marquette has locked up the #6 seed in the BET, and should play 8pm CST on Wednesday, most likely versus Seton Hall, who MU beat twice this year. A second round matchup versus Notre Dame is predicted, which is much better than if we were a #5 seed, playing UConn in the 2nd round

AP Wrap / Official Box / Play by Play

Marquette Closes Out Regular Season Against Syracuse

Fresh off of a dominating defensive victory over Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette (22-7, 11-6) now readies itself for their final regular season game of the year. On Saturday, Marquette will face a Syracuse squad that is 18-12 (8-9). The game will be broadcast on ESPN at 3 pm Milwaukee time. John Saunders and Len Elmore will be on the sidelines for MU's 13th national broadcast of the season.

The Orange are firmly off the bubble, but are looking to close out with a strong run and hopeful NCAA berth. In fact, Andy Katz has an article talking about Syracuse and the bubble. Due to injuries, the 'Cuse have been relying on seven players, including some talented freshmen and sophomores. At this point, Syracuse is a team that has been backed into a corner, so Marquette will have a very difficult time emerging with the win.

On the other hand, despite the heartbreaking loss to Georgetown, Marquette has mostly been playing well in the last seven games. This is especially true on the defensive end, and MU wants to recapture momentum heading into the post season. If nothing else, a loss to Syracuse will result in the team finishing sixth in the Big East (behind West Virginia). Barring an extended run in the Big East Tournament, a loss will almost certainly cost Marquette a seed in the NCAA tournament. For a fan base that is craving for the team to fulfill expectations of postseason success, good seeding will play a major role.

After players return from injuries, and Boeheim welcomes a solid recruiting class, the true window for Syracuse will be next year anyways. Let's look for Marquette to extinguish 'Cuse's NCAA hopes tomorrow. Our window is this year.

Top Five Numbers to Know about Syracuse
As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• 26 - Syracuse's national rank at pace
• The Orange play one of the quicker tempos in Division 1 at just under 72 possessions per game
• Pace is actually positively correlated with Syracuse's offensive efficiency. In other words, the quicker the pace for the game the better Syracuse does offensively.
• Considering that they play their vaunted 2-3 zone and typically only utilize seven players, this is actually somewhat of a puzzle
• 21.6% - This is the Turnover Rate that Syracuse has on offense
• The 'Cuse have a national rank of 204
• As we have previously discussed, this is a good sign for Marquette's defense
• 19 - Syracuse's rank at Offensive Rebounding Percentage
• The Orange are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country
• Marquette needs to do a good job on the defensive glass
• 10 - Syracuse's national rank for block percentage
• Syracuse averages a block rate of 15.5%
• In the past, Marquette has struggled against teams that do a good job of blocking shots (UConn, Louisville, Georgetown)
• However, the rest of Syracuse's defense is only average (rank of 116)
  
• 53.8% - The field goal percentage that Syracuse averages on two-point baskets
• This is a rank of 14 among Division 1 schools
• A lot of this is due to the efforts of 6'9" sophomore Arinze Onuaku, who has an personal effective Field Goal Percentage of 64.7%. That's 17th best in the country.
• In contrast, Syracuse only averages 33.3% from three point land, which is only 247th in the country

In summary, Syracuse's strengths are their inside play. They do an excellent job of scoring two-point baskets, collecting offensive rebounds, and blocking shots. However, their overall defense is only average. In addition, although Syracuse likes to play a faster pace, this won't seem to harm Marquette. Look for the key to this game to hinge on how well our defense pressures Syracuse into more turnovers than they usually commit. Of course, this is no different than our usual game plan, but even more so given the Syracuse zone.

Media Updates (stay tuned for more links)

• ESPN 360 Preview of the Game
• GoMarquette.com preview
• Game Notes from GoMarquette.com
• Rosiak's Blog is live from Syracuse