The Predator juiced the Orange

Here is a quick question for MU fans. Which player dominated the second half against the Syracuse Orange?

If you answered Jae Crowder, you're correct.

While Darius Johnson-Odom is rightfully enjoying spotlight for his clutch three-point basket with 26 seconds remaining, the 6'6" Crowder is the player who quietly carried the Warriors to victory and a berth in the Sweet 16.

In the second half, The Predator put MU on his back and delivered 14 of his 16 points to go with a team high seven rebounds and three assists. Realize that as a team the Warriors scored 32 points in the second half, and you'll appreciate just how dominant Crowder was against the favored Orange.

Of course, it was not just that Crowder had his way with the Orange, it was how his play lifted his team in key spots. Lost in the worthy adoration of “The Dagger”, note that Crowder hit the game's most important shot to that point, a confident three-pointer to tie things up at 59 with 2:26 remaining. A pair of free throws with ten seconds left moved the MU lead to five points, capping the Warriors' scoring on the night.

The Predator was effective offensively throughout the final 20 minutes, including a dominant stretch that stopped Syracuse's biggest run of the second half while sparking a 7-0 run by the Warriors. Let’s set the stage. After MU pulled ahead 41-40 with 14:03 remaining, the Orange went on a quick 6-0 run, forcing Buzz Williams to call a timeout. Out of the timeout Crowder stopped the bleeding, cutting the 'Cuse lead to 46-43 with 2:20 remaining.

With the Warriors trailing by the same score one minute later, Crowder delivered a dandy assist on a fast break to a cutting Junior Cadougan, who then completed the old fashioned three point play to tie the game at 46 with 11:19 to play. Less than a minute later, Crowder put MU ahead, 47-46, with a free throw at the 10:47 mark.

In addition to setting up “The Dagger” and sparking that vital stretch midway through the second half, let’s not forget that Crowder went 7-8 from the free throw line. Jae, a 61% free throw shooter on the season, went 4-4 in the final five minutes of the game.

His 16-points were the most Crowder has scored since lighting up the Orange for 25 back on January 29. While Crowder's late-season swoon was a cause for concern as MU headed to the tournament, he has bounced back with three consecutive double-digit outings - the first time he has done that since a four-game streak capped by the win over Syracuse in January. Crowder's resurgence is a key, and overlooked, reason why MU has made their first Sweet 16 since 2003.

MU reaches 14th Sweet 16 in school history

Marquette played an inspired game tonight against Syracuse and defeated their Big East brethren to earn their 14th Sweet 16 in school history and their first since Tom Crean's Warriors went to the Final Four in 2003.

The final score read 66-62 and it was every bit that close for most of the contest. Syracuse jumped out to a 7-0 lead and lead by as many as 10, but Marquette fought back to tie the game at 21-21. The remainder of the contest saw 11 lead changes in this back and forth affair.

With the game tied 59-59 and under a minute to go, the Warriors got a huge break as Syracuse failed to in-bound the ball properly and committed an over the back infraction. MU ran a play and freed up DJO for the biggest three pointer in his life with 27 seconds remaining in the game. It was golden. Syracuse attempted to answer with a three of their own, but Scoop Jardine's shot was errant. MU salted the game away with four critical free throws from Junior Cadougan and Jae Crowder.

DJO led MU with 17 points and Jae Crowder chipped in 16. MU's defense forced Syracuse into 18 turnovers.

Marquette is now on it's way to New Jersey to play the North Carolina Tar Heels on Friday night.

ESPN Game recap

Box Score

Marquette vs Syracuse for the Sweet Sixteen

I don't have a very high level of optimism for the game against Syracuse. Flat out, Marquette got lucky in their first matchup (not that there's anything wrong with that). MU caught Syracuse during a four game slump and played them at home. Jae Crowder had his last blowup game (in January) with 25 points, and MU hit several shot-clock beating threes down the stretch. Syracuse shot an eFG% of 63% and appeared on the verge of collapse at the end... but still Marquette won.

Of course, I didn't have a very high level of optimism for the Xavier game either, so what the hell do I know? If nothing else, Marquette won their first game on Friday and has a chance to make the Sweet Sixteen.

How did Marquette beat Syracuse last time? To start with, the team shot well (eFG% of 59%). Turnovers were sloppy, and although Marquette had a slight OR% advantage, this game was really won on FTR. Although it's practically insignificant, when everything else that matters is equal, a FTR advantage of 75% to 29% made the difference.

MU shot well against Xavier (59%), but was very, very sloppy with the ball (24%). That turnover number needs to tighten up against Syracuse, especially because forcing turnovers is one of the few things the Cuse do not do especially well. The other area is defensive rebounding, where the Orange are #207. On a neutral court in an NCAA game, can Marquette expect to have a significant FTR advantage?

In other words, MU needs to match pace on shooting well and have a significant advantage in one or two of the other four factors... either by protecting the ball really well or by attacking the offensive glass. Both areas are an opportunity, but Syracuse is a better offensive team and better defensive team.

Having said that, this is the time of year when upsets happen. Maybe years of tough losses finally even themselves out.

Media Links and News

Rosiak talks about how Buzz is a hit on the big stage once again.

GoMarquette.com has a great preview of the game, including the mp3's of the press conference and video highlights. Or you could just read the full transcript. As a bonus, read the Syracuse transcript. The Syracuse players are confident.

Syracuse Pomeroy Scouting Report

WINNING .. SO MUCH BETTER THAN LOSING.

I've gone through my share of Bradley Center losses and let me tell you: Winning is so much better than losing.

Staring down a three-game losing streak and a sub-.500 Big East record, the Marquette Warriors were tougher down the stretch than the Syracuse Orange, taking home a resounding, surprising, exhilarating monkey-off-their-back 76-70 victory on National Marquette Day.

The sold out Bradley Center crowd watched Jae Crowder lead MU with 25 points and seven boards .. but it was the pair of Jimmy Butler three-pointers in the games's final five minutes and a key Chris Otule block in the games closing moments that secured the clutch victory.

With Marquette clinging a 60-59 advantage with just about four minutes to play, Butler nailed a CLUTCH three-pointer as the shot clock expired to push the MU lead 63-59 with 4:05 remaining.

At the 2:29 mark, Syracuse tied it up and the clear thought going through Warrior Nation was .. "here we go again."

Not. So. Fast.

JFB and DJO connected on back-to-back 3 pointers to push the MU lead to 72-66. With MU holding a 73-68 lead in the game's final 40 seconds Otule delivered a clean block on a Scoop Jardine layup to preserve the lead. All told the Warriors were ferocious down the stretch, delivering a 10-4 run in the game's final two minutes to secure the 76-70 win. As DJO dribbled out the final seconds, the Bradley Center was rocking a well earned victory on National Marquette Day.

Marquette shot an impressive 52% from the floor this afternoon and made a laudable 24-33 from the free throw line while the Orange attempted just 14 freebies connecting on just eight.

While Crowder led with 25, Jimmy F. Butler finished with 19 points and Darius Johnson-Odom added 17 on just seven shot attempts (7-7 from the free throw line). Dwight Buycks turned in a solid floor game with six points, eight assists and five boards.

With the victory MU improves to 14-8 overall and 5-4 in the Big East.

Clutch. Seriously clutch.

• Box Score
• AP recap + podcasts of Buzz, Boeheim, DJO and JFB.
• Rosiak on the clutch MU win.
• MU's win has the Cuse teeting on absolute collapse.

MUTV Sports delivers a recap

Derailed MU looks to get back on track

The Orange come to town on Saturday in gut-check moment for the Marquette Warriors.

After a fine start to Big East play the Warriors (13-8) have stumbled to a 4-4 league record, losing three of their last four outings while blowing second half leads in each, two of them commanding advantages. Frustration from close losses and the team's inability to improve in core aspects of the game has fanbase as restless as it has been in years.

Of course, MU fans have seen this movie before. One year ago Marquette was struggling at 3-5 in Big East play, just up from its nadir of 2-5. The Warriors lost those five conference games by a combined 10 points, two by just a point including an embarrassing loss at DePaul. The season turned around with a solid home win against Rutgers followed by a last-second victory over UConn on the road. Momentum built as Marquette surged in the second half of Big East play, winning 9 of their final 11 regular season conference games.

It's time to move beyond this tombstone as a program*.

Rob gripes that technically Marquette had one double-digit loss last year (vs GU in the BET), but then the picture wouldn't be as funny.

Can the 2010-2011 team follow the same path to success? To do so the Warriors will have to beat the 10th ranked Syracuse Orange (18-3, 5-3) for the first time as a member of the Big EAST, on National Marquette Day. The Orange have their own issues, losing three games in a row, including a shocking 22-point loss at home to the Seton Hall Pirates on Tuesday. The tough stretch has fans wondering if it is time to hit the panic button for the Orange.

Great. Not only is our record atrociously bad on National Marquette Day (at least it seems like it is, though MU is roughly .500 in these games per MU) but Syracuse just seems to have our number. And they have a three game losing streak and will be dying for a win.

There's been enough negativity concerning the program this week. Let's talk about why this year Marquette is going to beat up on all the bad vibes, the National Marquette Day record, and Syracuse.

Looking at the numbers, Syracuse is a good, not great, defensive team and is a very good offensive team. The wild card, of course, is the vaunted Syracuse zone which could give MU fits. Syracuse is also dominant on the baseline, leading the nation in blocks and MU will have no match for Rick Jackson. While Boeheim's zone plays to the size of his baseline, the Orange are effective at defending the three-point shot. Expect a high scoring game... a shootout between two desperate teams. We believe that MU, who shoots and plays much better at home than on the road, simply has too much firepower in front of a packed house.

Tipoff is scheduled for 2pm Marquette Standard Time. The game will be broadcast on ESPNU with announcers Mark Jones and Fran Fraschilla. Go watch at a viewing party near you. Also, this weekend is Sneakers and Suits weekend for Coaches vs Cancer, so look forward to Buzz rocking some gear. (not sure why this is special - I wear sneakers with my suits ALWAYS)

Links

• Here is the GoMarquette preview
• Here are the MU game notes
• Rosiak says that the Orange are feeling the squeeze
• MU grad Chris Altruda previews the game
• Here is the recap of today's live chat with Buzz
  
• Seth Davis picks Marquette to win
• John Rothstein also picks MU to win
• Ken Pomeroy sees a two-point win for MU
• Rosiak on MU looking for a win against the Orange.
• Troy Nunes is An Absolute Magician previews the game.
• CBS Sports previews the game.
  
• The Cuse looks to rebound vs MU.

Cadougan card played at Syracuse as MU seeks to win 9 of next 12 to go to NCAA

Both RealtimeRPI and Pomeroy predict MU will be 19-11 heading into the Big East Tournament. RealtimeRPI predicts that will be enough to make the tournament as a 12-seed. Linardi still has MU as one of the last four teams out, but with Cincy as one of the last four teams in. An MU win at Cincy on February 21 would likely flip us with the Bearcats.

With MU finally facing the “easy” part of the schedule and clearly on the bubble, Buzz played the Cadougan card by giving him his first seven minutes of the season in the toughest venue of the year at Syracuse. While Cadougan left his first jumper a couple of feet short of the rim and was slow on a couple of defensive plays, he grabbed two rebounds, and would have had three assists except that on one of them Butler was fouled and hit free throws instead of a basket. He got a run going that could have been the differences except for the referees somehow missing the most obivous goaltend you will see all year.

More important, Cadougan gave MU an 8-man rotation that played at the fastest pace of the year (74 trips down the court) just a few days after playing their slowest game in six years (53 trips against DePaul).

With MU on pace to be so squarely on the bubble, here are the three ways that Cadougan’s surprise return could be the difference and get MU’s ticket punched in March:

1) MU is about to start playing games that will count in the “RECORD IN FINAL 12 GAMES” category as early as Rutgers on Tuesday, so if he is the difference in just one game down the stretch he could help ensure at least a 9-3 mark in the last 12 games even if we lose in the Big East tourney opener;

2) the Selection Committee does consider how good the roster is that will play in the NCAA tourney, so if MU plays better with Cadougan than they did without him, it will be a major boost in the process, and

3) his ability to give MU a true 8-man rotation will allow them to step up the tempo like they did against Syracuse to play to their strengths.

With a 7-man rotation Buzz has been forced to play at one of the slower paces in the country to save the team’s legs, and trying to win a half court game in which our height makes it tough to stop 2-point shots (Syracuse shot 67% 2-pointers at 30 for 45) or opposing offensive rebounds (Syracuse grabbed 42% with 10 of 24) gives MU no margin for error.

However, with Cadougan as part of the 8-man rotation, MU ran Syracuse into the ground while forcing 22 turnovers, and putting up another 10 of 25 performance from 3-point land to stay first in the country at 42.9%, as well as go on an 11-0 run in a 97 second interval that left MU within 70-65 with 1:54 to play. Only losing by 5 points at Syracuse propelled MU even higher in Pomeroy, as he now ranks MU as the 18th best team in the country, well ahead of the 79th in the RPI.

UConn is virtually the same height as Syracuse this year (12th tallest and 13th tallest teams in the US, respectively), so a similar performance next week against UConn or February 21 at Cincy could give MU the one marquee road win to wrap up a bid with a 20-10 mark, or at least be in position to make a case heading into the Big East tourney at 19-11. The biggest wrap on MU is having lost seven straight road games, but except for the DePaul debacle, those games include two losses to No. 1 seeds in 2009 (Pitt and Louisville) and four losses this year to teams currently in the Top 11 in the RPI (#1 Syracuse, #6 Nova, #8 WVU and #11 Wisconsin). It also ignores that we destroyed St. John's on their home court in the Big East tourney.

If MU does finish 19-11 including a win at Cincy or UConn, the three “gimme” wins and a 4-2 mark in the games in which we are slight favorites, then it would project to finish 10-8 in the Big East and in the top half of the conference. That would leave MU projected to face an 8-10 team in Cincinnati, Notre Dame or Seton Hall in the opening round. So add to the good record in the final 12 games, allowances for most losses coming before Cadougan completed the potential NCAA roster, and a top half finish in the Big East as one of only two teams (along with Pitt) to record a fifth straight 10-win season, and the resume would be strong.

In short, MU needs to win nine of its last 12 – whether that’s 9-2 in the regular season and a first round Big East tourney loss or 8-3 in the regular season and a first round win over Cincy, ND or SH, to make the tourney. However, they may need the marquee road win at Cincy or UConn among those nine wins.

This really makes for a lot more exciting regular season than a year when we are just determining whether MU will be a 3-seed or a 7-seed. These next 12 games are life or death for Lazar, Mo and Cube, and I’m glad Cadougan is there just in case he makes the difference on going 9-3 or better and extending the season.

Media recaps from Syracuse Loss
Eagles cut down by size according to Rosiak at the JS
Rosiak blogs a final wrap-up
Video recaps of the game via MUScoop
Syracuse.com recap

MU drops fourth straight on Senior Night

After tearing through the first half of the Big East Season, starting 9-0 with visions of a Big East Championship, MU closed out the 2nd half 3-6, ending the season with a loss on Senior Night to #25 Syracuse, in OT, 86-79.

I don't know what to say here. The Bradley Center has been a sad place, losing James, losing to UConn, losing to Syracuse on Senior Night. Just a terrible way to close out the season, and a terrible way to send four seniors out to post-season. Brutal.

The overtime Senior Night loss reminded me of the Senior Night triple OT loss in 2001 to Louisville that ended Brian Wardle's tenure. It was truly a punch in the nuts, and you just felt so bad for those guys.

You want to read about the game, read the AP recap. What am I going to tell you, you don't already know?

While losing to #1-2 type NCAA seeds UConn, Pitt, and UL is no surprise, I think the NCAA seeding committee is going to look upon today's loss most seriously. It shows that a Dominic Jamesless MU team, can't beat a 6-7 seed like Syracuse on their home court in front of 19,000. I think we need 2 wins in the BET to look credible as a 5-6-7 seed.


AP Recap
Official Box
Buzz Post-game MP3
Wes Matthews Post-Game MP3
Photo Gallery

Seniors elevated MU to new heights

Four years ago when Dwight Burke, Dominic James, Wesley Matthews and Jerel McNeal enrolled as freshmen the Golden Eagles were coming off a pair of disappointing NIT seasons in Conference USA.

After falling at home by 14 to Western Michigan in the first round of the NIT to end the 2004-2005 season the future was uncertain. Mired in mediocrity, Marquette was moving up in class to the BIG EAST just months after losing its best player to the NBA draft and losing one of its top remaining talents to an unexpected transfer. Competing successfully in the nation's best conference was anything but a given, in fact it was highly doubtful.

Enter the freshmen class of 2005-2006.

As this most memorable class prepares to play its final home game they do so as one of the most vital recruiting class in the history of Marquette basketball. Against the odds -- BIG EAST coaches picked Marquette to finish 12th in the conference back in 2005-2006 -- these players resurrected the program and engineered a consistent run of success not seen in Milwaukee since the glory days of the 1970s. There was no waiting period. These players won immediately, highlighted by a championship at the 2005 Great Alaska Shootout and the memorable trouncing of BIG EAST heavyweight UConn in the program's first-ever conference opener on their way to a 4th place finish in the league.

Along the way these players keyed Marquette's soon-to-be run of four consecutive NCAA tournament appearances, won 92 games (to date a winning percentage of 71%), won at least 10 games the BIG EAST in each season, and re-wrote the Marquette record books across the board.

These gaudy numbers have left many fans anxious for deeper runs into March, and sadly this "Could Have Been Crew" inched to the brink of NCAA tournament success only to be turned away. Consider:

• As freshmen this group watched as Steve Novak, the nation's most efficient offensive player, was unable to drain a wide-open three-pointer to force overtime against Alabama.
• As sophomores this group was robbed of a chance for a deep run in March when the BIG EAST Defensive Player of the Year, Jerel McNeal, went down with a wrist injury costing MU late wins and a more advantageous tournament seed.
• As juniors this group took a lead to the final seconds of overtime against third-seeded Stanford only to watch an NBA lottery pick drain a once-in-a-lifetime bucket to end Marquette's dream of the Sweet 16.
• And of course as seniors the Golden Eagles will play their final games without one of the greatest guards to ever suit up in the blue and gold, Dominic James.

Despite the painful March disappointments, there is no question that these seniors constitute one of the greatest classes in Marquette history. The program is a staple in the top 25, is one of the BIG EAST's most consistent teams, enjoys unprecedented national broadcast appearances, has recaptured the aura of success from years gone by and the current run of NCAA appearances hasn't been matched in 30 years. A program that longed for consistent success on a national scale can rightly claim a place among the nation's best programs thanks to the efforts of these seniors.

Against Syracuse on Senior Day, The Quad will have one more opportunity to electrify the Bradley Center. For all the fans lucky enough to be there, enjoy it and give these kids a most well deserved ovation or ten.

Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm CT on Saturday. The game will appear on ESPN Full Court. For a listing of broadcast specifics by market, click here.

Now let's look at the numbers for tomorrow's game.

Syracuse's Strengths and Weaknesses. As always, this information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report

Strengths

• Not Fouling - Syracuse is #6 in the nation at not sending opponents to the line. They only allow opponents to get a free throw rate of 25%
• Three point defense - Syracuse is #12 in the nation at perimeter defense. Opponents only shoot 29.8% from behind the arc
• Making two-point baskets - Syracuse is #4 in the country at scoring two-point baskets, where they make over 56% of their shots. That helps them be #12 overall at effective Field Goal Percentage

Weaknesses

• Making free throws - Syracuse is #298 in the country from the charity stripe. They only make 64.5% of their free throws
• Forcing turnovers - Syracuse is #283 at forcing turnovers, where they only turn the ball over on 18.6% of possessions
• Defensive rebounding - Syracuse allows opponents to get an offensive rebounding percentage of 34.9% (#263 in the country)

Specific Stats Recommendations (in order of Importance)
1. Make shots (Marquette eFG% of 55% or higher) - This is just slightly higher than Marquette's average
2. Force turnovers (Syracuse turnover rate of 33% or higher) - this is a lot higher than Syracuse's average, but Syracuse is only #199 at protecting the ball. Guys that are sloppiest with the ball? (Devendorf, Ongenaut, Jackson). Guys that are most likely to keep it? (Onuaku, Harris)
3. Crash the boards (Marquette OR% of 55% or higher) - This is twenty offensive rebounds, or nine boards higher than season average. We're looking for big days from Lazar and Jimmy Butler.
4. Stop Syracuse from making shots (Syracuse eFG% of 56% or less) - While Tim may feel that we have no answer to Flynn, the key here is Onuaku, who gets an eFG% of almost 70%!
5. Protect the ball (Marquette TO Rate of 8% or less) - This is six turnovers or less.

Bottom line
Pomeroy predicts a 63% chance of victory and four point win. Unfortunately, our model does not agree (please be wrong, model), with only a 22% prediction of win and nine point loss. Syracuse has been hot and Marquette has been the opposite. The prediction is that Marquette will have slight advantages on turnovers, offensive rebounds, and free throws, but will lose big on field goal percentage. Time to right the ship on the defensive field goal percentage and hope the home crowd rallies the team to a senior day win.




**joint post by Tim and Rob

Recruiting Update...DaShonte Riley

After his official visit to Marquette on 2/25, word was that DaShonte Riley would make his college decision by the end of the following week. It appears now that he has stuck to that plan. As first reported by Syracuse.com and now confirmed by Jim Ganzer over at the Sports Bubbler, Riley has made his decision and will be playing for the Syracuse Orange next year.

Riley had been recruited by Buzz Williams since he chose not to sign with Georgetown during the fall period. Ranked in the top 100 by most recruiting services, Riley had seen his stock drop as of late, including falling completely out of the Rivals.com Top 100. He received interest from schools such as Marquette, Syracuse, Cal, LSU and Virginia when he reopened his recruiting last fall, before declaring that he would choose between MU and Syracuse nearly two weeks ago.

So where does this leave Marquette? We all know that MU is out of scholarships for the 2009 class and would have been over the limit had Riley committed. We also know that Buzz Williams is still actively recruiting players in the class of 2009. Time will tell whether any of those players, or perhaps players we haven't heard about yet chose to come to MU. All we can guarantee at this point is that it will be an interesting few weeks leading up to the April signing period.

Stay tuned for a comprehensive recruiting update on the Class of 2009 and beyond in the coming weeks.

Big East Preview - Part Two

Back now with Part Two of the Big East Preview. In case you missed Part One, you can find it at this link. If you want more details on the factors I'm using, you can check it out here.

The data I used is taken from Pomeroy's site, where I extracted conference data only and worked with that. As a reminder, the factors under consideration were:

1. A team that underperformed or overperformed based on last year's stats
2. Consistency (or Inconsistency) of the team last year
   
3. Quality of Junior and Senior players (Using data provided by Villanova by the Numbers and then modified)
   
4. Regression of a team towards 0.500
   
5. Quality of incoming players based on RSCI
   

Before we move onto the the top eight teams (Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia), I wanted to make sure that something was clarified.

Projections are forecasts based on limited data. They are inherently inaccurate. Don't focus too much on any predictions regarding specific Wins/Losses or where the selected team is ranked in the preview. The most important value (IMO) is in the areas that I regard as statistical outliers, or where a team may have a red flag or potential bonus.

Clear? Onto the preview

Competing for a BET first round bye
The next six teams are all fairly close, and I'd expect each team to be somewhat in contention for a spot in the top four

#8 - Syracuse

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Syracuse (9-9), should have finished with a record of 9.9 - 8.1.
  
• Consistency - Modest impact. Syracuse was one of the more consistent teams in conference last year.
• Quality of Returning Starters - limited impact. Syracuse returns relatively few junior and senior minutes. They also lost Donte Green but will gain productivity from the return of both Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins.
  
• Expected Regression - They were at 0.500 last year, so no impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen -Syracuse welcomes 6'7 WF Kris Joseph to a team that was already young and talented. Bonus
  

Projection - 10-8. Expect Syracuse to be better this year. They're definitely talented, but are they too young to compete for a top spot? Expectations for the 'Cuse may be understated.

#7 - Notre Dame

• 2007 Results - Significant Overperformer. Based on their stats in conference, Notre Dame (14-4), should have finished with a record of 11.7 - 6.3. Red Flag
  
• Consistency - Modest impact. Notre Dame was one of the more consistent teams in conference last year, which means that I don't attribute their overperformance to inconsistency.
• Quality of Returning Starters - Significant Impact. Notre Dame returns one of the highest percentages of Junior and Senior minutes, as well as last year's BE POY, Floppy McFlopperson. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression - Significant impact. Based on their win % last year, Notre Dame should feel some pull back towards 0.500. Red Flag
  
• Incoming Freshmen - No Impact
  

Projection - 11-7. Despite the big advantage of returning almost everyone except the productive Rob Kurz, I see some major red flags for ND.

#6 - Pittsburgh

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Pittsburgh (10-8), should have finished with a record of 10.7 - 7.3. Of course, some of this was due to the injury suffered by Levance Fields.
  
• Consistency - No impact. Pitt was just slightly more inconsistent than league average.
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - limited impact. Although they return most of their players, relatively few of those players are junior and senior returning minutes. (This obviously changes if Mike Cook is granted an 8th year of eligibility). Pitt's on the wrong side of league average.
  
• Expected Regression - No impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Pittsburgh brings in 6'5 WF Nasir Robinson (#81). Too bad he's not from New York City. I bet you didn't know that Pitt gets a lot of players from NYC. Jamie Dixon also added solid backcourt performer Travon Woodall who should take some of the minutes vacated by the departed Keith Benjamin and Ronald Ramon. Bonus
  

Projection - 11-7. As mentioned at the beginning of this section, any of the teams in here could finish between 8th and 3rd. So why is Pitt down at #6? Because I don't like Pitt! Refreshing candor from Cracked Sidewalks, and hey... Pitt is above ND.

#5 - Georgetown

• 2007 Results - Significant overperformer. Based on their stats in conference, Georgetown (15-3), should have finished with a record of 13.7 - 4.3. This is just using math to say what everyone in conference knows... Georgetown got lucky last year against West Virginia, Villanova, and even Marquette. Red Flag
  
• Consistency - Modest impact. Georgetown was one of the more consistent teams in conference last year
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Modest impact. I know you're thinking that Georgetown lost everyone from that team (Roy Hibbert, Jonathan Wallace, Little Rivers, Little Ewing, and Vernon Macklin). However, even though they're on the low side of league average for returning junior and senior minutes, they're not at the bottom of the league.
  
• Expected Regression - Significant impact. There should be a strong pull on Georgetown's win percentage. Red Flag
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Fresh off of the 07 recruiting class that was top 10 RSCI, Georgetown brings in FOUR players in the RSCI Top 100 list, but can the kids step in and immediately replace the veteran production from last season? JTIII will also welcome 6'10" FSU transfer Julian Vaughn to campus this fall. Bonus
  

Projection - 12-6. Conventional wisdom is that Georgetown will be significantly down this year. I'm less bearish on the Hoyas' chances than many, despite the two big red flags listed above. The biggest reason is that GU will still have a decent number of returning contributors, as well as a huge influx of talent.

#4 - West Virginia

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, West Virginia (11-7), should have finished with a record of 11.5 - 6.5.
  
• Consistency - Significant impact. West Virginia was one of the more inconsistent teams in conference last year. Just as mentioned with Providence, this is a red flag, but possible bonus. If Year 2 of the Huggins Experience results in the 'Eers playing more consistently, then that's a boost. Red Flag (but possible bonus)
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Modest impact. Yes, I know that West Virginia lost Joe Alexander and Darris Nichols. However, West Virginia still returns one of the higher percentages of Junior and Senior minutes.
  
• Expected Regression - Limited impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - The late addition of former IU signee Devin Ebanks (#22) to go with Kevin Jones (#49) are big reasons why WVU could surprise to the upside this year. Bonus

Projection - 12-6. This is a team that could just as easily finish 8th as well. I just think that Huggins will get West Virginia to play more consistently and they won't be as bad.

#3 - Marquette

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Marquette (11-7), should have finished with a record of 11.3 - 6.7.
  
• Consistency - Significant impact. Marquette was the most inconsistent teams in conference last year. We even covered it in some depth on this site. Just as mentioned with West Virginia, this is a red flag, but possible bonus. The big question is if experience will result in more consistency, or if the inconsistency is a result of a guard-heavy roster. I hope it's the former, but fear it's the latter. Red Flag (but possible bonus)
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Significant impact. Three 1,000 point scorers and a junior in Lazar Hayward that was among the league's most improved players last year. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression - Limited impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - No impact. No offense to Chris Otule, but there are no incoming players on the RSCI Top 100 list. However, there is hope that new juco players Joe Fulce and Jimmy Butler will provide solid contributions.
  

Projection - 12-6. Before anyone gets on me for making this a homer pick, I'll say that this is a team that could just as easily finish 8th. I'm picking Marquette to finish third for one single reason: this is the year for Marquette and the Three Amigos to achieve great things. There is no grace period for new coach Buzz Williams. Expectations are, and should be, very high.

Truth is, this team underachieved in the regular season last year, yet it returns every meaningful player and introduces a few potentially useful spare parts. Despite coaching turnover, this mix should equate to more wins despite the overall improvement of the Big East across the board. MU has the veteran backcourt that coaches crave, admirable depth, and the seasoning of three straight NCAA appearances.

If this team significantly underachieves with all of their experience and talent, I could care less how good of a recruiter Buzz Williams is. No matter how good the incoming talent will be starting in 2009, Marquette will take a significant step back after losing McNeal, James, and Matthews. Anyone else not that interested in two disappointing years? That puts the pressure on performing well in 2008 - 2009.

The Top Two
I think these two teams will be the class of the Big East next year:

#2 - Connecticut

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, UConn (13-5), should have finished with a record of 12.3-5.7. Chalk one up to the Hall of Fame coach.
  
• Consistency - No impact. UConn was about league average
  
• Quality of Returning Starters. UConn returns the highest percentage of Junior and Senior experience in the league. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression. Some regression expected, but not significant
  
• Incoming Freshmen. UConn brings in the 6'1 PG Kemba Walker (#24) and 6'6 WG Nate Miles (#60) to another team that was good and now has a lot of experience. In particular look for point guard Kemba Walker to start fast as coach Jim Calhoun waits for A.J. Price to make a full recovery from knee surgery. Also, Miles can really play and will make UConn fans quickly forget the (for now) departed Stanley Robinson. Bonus
  

Projection - 13-5. At the end of the day, I just think that they're not the best team in the league. But they're close.

#1 - Louisville

• 2007 Results - Underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Louisville (14-4), should have finished with a record of 14.9 - 3.1. Injuries surely played a role
  
• Consistency - Louisville was one of the most consistent teams in the league, which helps when you're good. Bonus
  
• Quality of Returning Starters. Again, UL returns one of the highest number of Junior and Senior minutes. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression. Significant regression expected. Red flag
• Incoming Freshmen. Louisville brings in the RSCI #5 player, PF Samardo Samuels, to a loaded and experienced team. Bonus
• Wildcard: Derrick Caracter. Who knows what to expect from this talented yet troubled collegian. For now, he's factored out of the equation.
  

Projection - 14-4. Pitino hauls in the BE title he should have won last year.

Again, the focus is more on the potential bonus or red flag areas for each team, instead of the projected wins/losses or projected final ranking. Any of the teams from #3 through #9 could realistically fit in any random order. Besides, if I could accurately model results, I'd be typing this from my own private desert island.

Thanks to NYWarrior for his additional contributions. Finally, want to review the data in depth? Here is a link to the spreadsheet. (The file opens up automatically)

Syracuse Numbers Recap

Don't know what all of these numbers mean? Take a look at our explanation for Team Stats and Individual Stats first.

Four Factors Review

Despite looking lost and confused for much of the game against the Syracuse 2-3 zone, Marquette had an about average day offensively. It was worse than our season average, but still not that bad. As evidenced by the 118.2 efficiency that Syracuse achieved, this was a game lost on the defensive end. Interestingly enough, although Syracuse is one of the top teams in the country at offensive rebounding percentage, that was the only one of the four factors that Marquette won. Thanks to their dominating inside presence, Syracuse was able to achieve an eFG% of 63%. In addition, Syracuse enjoyed a notable advantage at Free Throw Rate.

What really hurts, however, was that Marquette lost the Turnover Rate battle. Remember that for the season, Syracuse averages a turnover rate of 21.2%, so they did better than that against our vaunted defense. This is an aspect that Marquette almost always wins.

Offensive and Defensive Efficiency Trends


First of all, please note that none of these numbers include results against Florida Gulf Coast. It was a cupcake game, it skews the numbers, and I don't think that it's representative of how well the team is playing. The story is not pretty here. Marquette is heading in the wrong direction at the wrong time. Our offense and our defense are both getting worse.

Underachieving

Our final Big EAST numbers for Offensive and Defensive Efficiency are 104.8 (Offense) and 98.9 (Defense). A team with those offensive and defensive numbers should have a final record of 11.9 - 6.1. Given that Marquette finished with a final record of 11-7, this means that the team underachieved.

effective Field Goal Percentage Trends

Hey, look! More bad news. Our offensive and defensive effective Field Goal percentages are also heading in the wrong directions again. Not only that, but...

Offensive Rebounding Trends

... the roller coaster that has been our offensive rebounding percentage is once again on the decline. Our offensive rebounding is getting worse and our opponents' offensive rebounding is getting better.

Individual Player Ratings

The only player that had a decent game was Jerel McNeal, but this is also an area where the defensive ratings fall short. Because the Box Score doesn't capture the number of times that Donte Greene scored an easy post-up basket on McNeal, his defensive ratings show up well. Everyone else pretty much had a hand in the seventeen point loss, and the worst impact on the game came from our floor general.

Summary

I'm decidedly bearish on Marquette's prospects for the post-season. Almost all of the numbers are heading in the wrong direction, and our team's strengths are in decline. The team has even underachieved according to those numbers. Not only that, but ignoring the numbers, Marquette is still only 3-8 against the RPI Top 50 teams. I'm not trying to be "doom and gloom" here, but if MU was a stock, I'd short it. It's too bad that fanhood isn't something that people can just dump and eliminate losses.

Of course, tomorrow is a new day, and the Big EAST Tournament is another chance to start fresh. Looks like we're going to face Seton Hall (according to Rosiak) for the third time this season. Game time will be 8 pm on Wednesday at Madison Square Garden.

MU Ends Season with Thumping at Syracuse

Marquette, a pre-season Top 10 team, was picked to compete for the Big East Title, instead ended the season with a whimper, losing at Syracuse by fifteen, 87-72.

Marquette could not stop Syracuse's starters, two of whom hit 20+ points, and 4 hit double digits. Syracuse shot a blistering 58%. On the other side of the court, Syracuse served up a 2-3 zone that, for the 800th time, has proven to be Marquette's kryptonite.

Jerel McNeal had 22 points and 6 rebounds, the only bright spot for Marquette.

While my prediction to finish the BE season 11-7 was derided as pessimistic the time, it turned out to be spot on. Marquette returned their entire 10-6 team from last year, but the team I observed in practices and pre-season scrimmages this year appeared to have the exact same strengths and weaknesses as last year's squad. Same team = same results.

However .. while the team met my "expectations" I am disappointed, as they were low expectations. 5 of our 7 BE losses were blowout-double-digit thumpings. 9 of our 11 wins came against the lower half of the Big East. While we had no "bad" losses, we had few wins versus quality teams, winning 3 of 11 games versus Top 50, a stat that does not bode well for the NCAA Tournament.

Many thought we'd compete for the Big East Title. Instead, we ended firmly in the middle of the pack. Three years of the "Big 3" have gained us a 4th place finish, 5th place, and now 6th place. Time is slipping away.

Marquette has locked up the #6 seed in the BET, and should play 8pm CST on Wednesday, most likely versus Seton Hall, who MU beat twice this year. A second round matchup versus Notre Dame is predicted, which is much better than if we were a #5 seed, playing UConn in the 2nd round

AP Wrap / Official Box / Play by Play

Marquette Closes Out Regular Season Against Syracuse

Fresh off of a dominating defensive victory over Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette (22-7, 11-6) now readies itself for their final regular season game of the year. On Saturday, Marquette will face a Syracuse squad that is 18-12 (8-9). The game will be broadcast on ESPN at 3 pm Milwaukee time. John Saunders and Len Elmore will be on the sidelines for MU's 13th national broadcast of the season.

The Orange are firmly off the bubble, but are looking to close out with a strong run and hopeful NCAA berth. In fact, Andy Katz has an article talking about Syracuse and the bubble. Due to injuries, the 'Cuse have been relying on seven players, including some talented freshmen and sophomores. At this point, Syracuse is a team that has been backed into a corner, so Marquette will have a very difficult time emerging with the win.

On the other hand, despite the heartbreaking loss to Georgetown, Marquette has mostly been playing well in the last seven games. This is especially true on the defensive end, and MU wants to recapture momentum heading into the post season. If nothing else, a loss to Syracuse will result in the team finishing sixth in the Big East (behind West Virginia). Barring an extended run in the Big East Tournament, a loss will almost certainly cost Marquette a seed in the NCAA tournament. For a fan base that is craving for the team to fulfill expectations of postseason success, good seeding will play a major role.

After players return from injuries, and Boeheim welcomes a solid recruiting class, the true window for Syracuse will be next year anyways. Let's look for Marquette to extinguish 'Cuse's NCAA hopes tomorrow. Our window is this year.

Top Five Numbers to Know about Syracuse
As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• 26 - Syracuse's national rank at pace
• The Orange play one of the quicker tempos in Division 1 at just under 72 possessions per game
• Pace is actually positively correlated with Syracuse's offensive efficiency. In other words, the quicker the pace for the game the better Syracuse does offensively.
• Considering that they play their vaunted 2-3 zone and typically only utilize seven players, this is actually somewhat of a puzzle
• 21.6% - This is the Turnover Rate that Syracuse has on offense
• The 'Cuse have a national rank of 204
• As we have previously discussed, this is a good sign for Marquette's defense
• 19 - Syracuse's rank at Offensive Rebounding Percentage
• The Orange are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country
• Marquette needs to do a good job on the defensive glass
• 10 - Syracuse's national rank for block percentage
• Syracuse averages a block rate of 15.5%
• In the past, Marquette has struggled against teams that do a good job of blocking shots (UConn, Louisville, Georgetown)
• However, the rest of Syracuse's defense is only average (rank of 116)
  
• 53.8% - The field goal percentage that Syracuse averages on two-point baskets
• This is a rank of 14 among Division 1 schools
• A lot of this is due to the efforts of 6'9" sophomore Arinze Onuaku, who has an personal effective Field Goal Percentage of 64.7%. That's 17th best in the country.
• In contrast, Syracuse only averages 33.3% from three point land, which is only 247th in the country

In summary, Syracuse's strengths are their inside play. They do an excellent job of scoring two-point baskets, collecting offensive rebounds, and blocking shots. However, their overall defense is only average. In addition, although Syracuse likes to play a faster pace, this won't seem to harm Marquette. Look for the key to this game to hinge on how well our defense pressures Syracuse into more turnovers than they usually commit. Of course, this is no different than our usual game plan, but even more so given the Syracuse zone.

Media Updates (stay tuned for more links)

• ESPN 360 Preview of the Game
• GoMarquette.com preview
• Game Notes from GoMarquette.com
• Rosiak's Blog is live from Syracuse