Getting excited for another season of Marquette hoops

I was on campus today as I needed to attend to something downtown.

I saw the Al McGuire Center and I was filled with excitement for Marquette hoops this season

Will they win the Big East again? They got a good chance with eight of nine rotational players including four starters coming back from last season’s championship team.

The standard has to be higher than winning the Big East and just making the NCAA Tournament.

Shaka Smart and the program need to snap their Sweet 16, Elite Eight, and Final Four drought. Hey, let’s also dream and hope Marquette basketball can win its first national championship since 1977.

Hopefully, Tyler Kolek will repeat as Big East Player of the Year. If he doesn’t, let’s hope it is because Kam Jones or Oso Ighodaro beat him out for the prize.

Oso is an NBA prospect but he needs to knock down some threes if he is to improve his draft stock. Hitting threes would bring an added element to his outstanding offensive game. It can also help make up for the loss of O-Max.

Chase Ross and freshman Tre Norman and Zaide Lowery need to fill the void on defense that Prosper’s departure left.

It will be interesting to see if Shaka plays a nine or 10-man role rotation.

If he does, which of the three freshmen will be the one on the outside looking in?

We still have some days left in summer so enjoy it. That does mean you cannot be excited for some MU hoops.

Ranking Marquette’s three other underrated Big East teams

The Marquette Golden Eagles are proving a ninth-place preseason prediction in the Big East was an incorrect projection.

The forecast at the time was fair. Justin Lewis had just departed the team for a pro career. Darryl Morsell and Kur Kuath had run out of eligibility. Greg Elliott left to finish his final year of eligibility at Pitt.

Losing Lewis and Morsell meant a majority of the scoring had to be replaced with players that had the potential but not a lot of production to back it up.

Maybe those making predictions should have taken into account the potential this roster had to be good. Tyler Kolek, Kam Jones, Oso Ighodaro, David Joplin, and Oliver-Maxence Prosper all showed promise last season that they could be even better this season.

They are showing off the improvement as Marquette is sitting near the top of the Big East standings. They are currently in KenPom’s Top 25.

It would not be the first time Marquette has been undervalued in the Big East only to beat projections. 

Marquette’s first year in the Big East was supposed to be a struggle. The Golden Eagles entered the 2005-2006 season with the expectation that they would be lucky to win three Big East games.

Steve Novak had a spectacular senior season. Joe Chapman contributed some big shots to keep the Golden Eagles in games. A talented freshman trio of Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, and Wesley Matthews burst onto the scene to help Marquette break into the Big East in a loud “we have arrived” manner.

https://twitter.com/joechap32/status/1613623690054275086?s=20&t=VIrtyuMGQc78JwBThat is probably the best Marquette team to outdo expectations. They throttled No. 2 UConn in the school’s first Big East game ever. They swept Notre Dame. That team beat Georgetown when they were in the Top 25 and Pittsburgh when they were in the Top 10.

Instead of winning three Big East games, Marquette won 10 and finished in fourth place.

Another Marquette team that blew past low expectations was the 2009-10 squad. James, Matthews, and McNeal had run out of eligibility. This team lacked size. They were projected to finish 12th.

Yet, led by Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler, the Golden Eagles finished 11-7 in the Big East. 

They started Big East play 1-3 with all three of the losses decided by a bucket or less. The group rallied thanks to some outstanding shooting to finish 11-7 in the conference and make the NCAA Tournament.

This is probably the second-best group to blow by bad expectations. They were also gritty as they won three games in a row in overtime. 

Then last season, the Golden Eagles were not projected to do much. Marquette was projected to finish 9th or 10th depending on what preseason forecast you looked at. 

They had nine new players and had to learn a new system with Shaka Smart’s arrival. We all remember how that team defied expectations and made the NCAA Tournament and won 11 Big East games.

Last year’s team did not have the shooting like the ‘09-‘10 team or the collection of talent of ‘05-‘06 group.

It will be interesting to see how far this year’s group of overachievers can go. They got the talent to become one of the best teams in program history that blew low expectations out of the water.

How This Season Will Go...Generally Speaking

The Marquette Men's Basketball Team 2021-22 regular season tips off is nearly a month. It represents not only a new season but the beginning of a new era as Shaka Smart takes over as head coach.

                                        Photo Courtesy of Marquette Athletics

There are going to be plenty of new faces on the court to go along with the new coaching staff. Justin Lewis, Greg Elliott and Oso Ighodaro are the only returning scholarship players from last season’s squad.

Smart wasted no time filling up his first roster with a mix of super seniors (It sounds better than graduate transfer with an extra year of eligibility due to a COVID-19 exception), traditional transfers and freshman.

Marquette’s super seniors are 2020-21 Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, Darryl Morsell who spent four years at Maryland and former Oklahoma rim protector Kur Kuath. 

The 2020-21 Atlantic-10 Rookie of the Year, Tyler Kolek transferred in after a year at George Mason and Oliver-Maxence Prosper brings his game and sweet nickname, O-Max, to MU after a year at Clemson.

Then there is Shaka’s first recruiting class rounding out the rest of the roster. He convinced originally committed to Wojo recruits Stevie Mitchell and Kam Jones to stick with their promise to join the team. Both won Mr. Basketball in their respective states (Jones was the Division II winner in Tennessee and Mitchell in Pennsylvania along with winning the Keystone State’s Gatorade Player of the Year). 

Smart then convinced Emarion Ellis, David Joplin and Keeyan Itejere to follow him to Marquette after all of them originally agreed to play for Smart at Texas. It equaled a recruiting class good enough for a 19th national ranking according 247sports.com and Sports Illustrated and Rivals.com ranked the class 20th.

This roster has talent, length and athleticism. It has players who can defend at a high level. All the traits you would see in a Shaka Smart team.

                                      Photo Courtesy of Marquette Athletics

It is also a roster that has a super majority of its players who have not played a single game together, has only two players who played significant minutes at Marquette (Oso played in just five games) and only one player who averaged double-digit points in a Division I college season (Kolek’s 10.8 last season).

Oh, then there is the always brutal Big East schedule to navigate and non-conference match ups with UCLA, Illinois and a possible West Virginia game if MU beats Ole Miss in the Charleston Classic opening round. There is also road games against Wisconsin and Kansas State. It is not the easiest schedule to incorporate all these new pieces.

With all that inexperience and the schedule, a rebuilding year is to be expected. A great season preview from the three-man-weave.com projects a ninth place Big East finish. The Big East Blog thinks the Golden Eagles will finish 10th. Marquette is currently getting long shot odds to win the Big East. Just for fun, Oddshark.com has Marquette currently at +7000 to win the National Title with both Draft Kings and BetMGM giving +15000. 

Although, it is not all doom and gloom as Painttouches.com's Andrei Greska gives a slightly better outlook on the Doug Russell Podcast

It is definitely shaping up to be a probable long rebuilding season on paper. Luckily, games are not played on paper. 

How might this season play out? Well, if I can forecast that my 401k would be doing much better and I would be hitting jackpot on every scratch off I buy. There is a couple general scenarios I could see panning out in Shaka’s first year.

Exceed Expectations and Makes the NCAA Tournament

How this happens? Well, some main things have to happen...

• The roster chemistry develops quickly.
• The Golden Eagles pull off a couple surprise upsets in non-conference. 
• Lewis fulfills his NBA talent potential and provides a special player performance every game. As I like to call it, he has a winning impact improvement on the team (Think Lazar Hayward elevating his game even more his senior year or Vander Blue's final season)
  
• Elliott stays healthy and follows in the steps of JaJuan Johnson and Sacar Anim by having a great senior season.
  
• Morsell and Kuath lead a suffocating defensive effort every game. 
• Kolek plays like his Travis Diener comp. 
• Oso and O-Max provide good bench minutes.
• Finally a couple of the freshman make a Dominic James and Jerel McNeal like winning impact in their contributions. 

The talent is there is to make a surprise NCAA Tournament appearance. Defense should not be a problem for this team. The offensive scheme is also there. Shaka loves pick and roll, but unlike Wojo who loved high pick and roll (and one guy dominating the offense), Smart prefers to run it from various spots on the court. As Painttouches.com points out, that can lead to less likely chances of the opposing defense shutting down the offense (Like what we saw in the Wojo era). Executing the pick and roll, along with good chemistry and the talent optimizes itself to get easy buckets or clean looks at the three could provide a dependable offense to compliment the defense.

Although if they do make the NCAA's, you are probably looking at First Four or nine to 11 seed Dance invite. There will be games where the inexperience shows. There will be some growing pains as Shaka installs his brand of play. There is playing Villanova, UConn, Xavier and Seton Hall twice on the schedule. If everything shakes positively as described above, MU can still get some wins over the middle tier of the conference for say a 5th or 6th place finish. That might just be enough to get a March invite.

Make the Not In Tournament

How this happens? Well, this kind of stuff happens...

• The roster takes a lot longer to gel and inexperience shows in resume building games. 
• Lewis improves but not to the special player status. 
• Elliott has some injuries again he has to battle limiting his effectiveness.
• Morsell has the "transfer delay impact" aka, defers too much as he tries to feel out his new program and takes a lot longer to be the player Marquette needs him to be.
• Kolek maintains his A-10 stats.
• Most of the freshman play like freshman.

Another way to think of it is this season goes like the Henry Ellenson season without crippling losses to DePaul thus getting a NIT invite.

The Projections Fulfilled

How this happens? Well, probably these things happen...

• The roster never really gels as Shaka struggles to find consistent rotations.
• A couple of the freshman transfer out during the season over lack of playing time.
• Lewis improves but to a nine to 10 points per game player and also misses some time like he did last season.
  
• A major injury or two.
• Kolek is unable to step up in class and struggles in the Big East.
• Kolek and Mitchell turn the ball over a ton running the point.
  
• All the freshman play like freshman.

Well, you get the picture. It turns out to be what we think-too much inexperience that is not ready to compete at a winning pace both in non-conference and the Big East.

The team plays good defense but has assignment and communication issues since none of them have played together which leads to some heartbreaking losses. The offense goes into lulls and has turnover issues as it struggles to run pick and roll. The youth leads to some blowouts from the Villanovas of the world and bad losses to (gulp) the DePauls of the world. We possibly get a repeat of last season or Wojo's first season (Hopefully we do not have to relive eight-strong). Best case in this section is somehow still squeaking out a 16-15 overall record (Because the most minimal expectation at Marquette is never have a below .500 record) heading into the Big East Tournament and then pulling off a Georgetown like run to win the Big East Tournament and go dancing. 

Okay, okay, too much. It just would be nice to see Marquette exceed expectations and not met them this season.

This So Called Marquette Roster Exodus

Theo John is going to Duke. Good for him. 

No, really I mean it. 

The young man gave Marquette everything for four years and now he gets a chance to play at one of the blue bloods and a free year towards a masters degree at Duke to go along with his Marquette degree.

What bothers my make believe gold alumni sweater vest was the headline announcing his Duke arrival. Also the article focuses more on Marquette's roster additions and subtractions and less on what John can bring to Duke. I wonder if this happens to be a coincidence considering this is from the Durham perspective and Marquette just happens to recently fire a Duke legend.

Anyways, it is a Marquette basketball exodus folks. 

Yep, four players have left the program and one is thinking about the NBA as new head coach Shaka Smart shakes up the roster to meet his programs needs. Calling it an exodus is a bit of a stretch and doesn’t even take into account any context whatsoever.

A roster exodus is like what is happening at Cincinnati where the players are fleeing a toxic situation. 

What is happening at Marquette is it’s three seniors got an extra year of eligibility because of COVID-19 and have chosen to use it at other programs. In any other year, it would be called replacing departing seniors.

Also Jamal Cain, Koby McEwen and John first made it clear they were not using that extra year. When they most likely found out most overseas teams have US players sitting at home waiting for restrictions to be lifted and therefore blocking their route to an immediate pro career, they smartly decided to take their extra year. 

Plus, Cain considered coming back but decided it was better to play closer to his hometown and most likely be the man at Oakland. Hardly fleeing the program.

Symir Torrence announced his departure before Wojo’s firing. Even then, he considered returning when Shaka was hired but the prior head coach created a bad taste about MU that he couldn't get out. I charge that departure to Wojo and not Smart.

Dawson Garcia is making a smart move by testing the NBA Draft waters. He is most likely to hear go back to school and hit the weight room but what is wrong with getting some feedback on his game and taking a chance on impressing one team enough to maybe take a gamble on him and making him a millionaire?

If Garcia returns, then yes. someone has to go because Marquette is at the 13 scholarship limit. Even then that is one player leaving under Shaka (If Greg Elliot gets granted a roster exemption then no one has to leave).

Really to reach exodus status it would take Shaka landing more players in the transfer portal (Like transfer guard Darryl Morrsell of Maryland), or another incoming recruit along with Garcia’s return. Then that means more players got to go but do we want to be the type of fan base hoping to get rid of players (Got to give credit @brutus_87to98 for that take)?

On a related note, Shaka's recruiting haul will bring seven new faces to Fiserv Forum next season. The question I keep getting is with seven new players is Marquette better, worse or a push? I would say talent wise they are better and poised to have some big seasons ahead with Shaka’s haul. MU will have some growing pains next season as Shaka implements his style of play, five freshman learn the college game and everyone learns to play together. They do have the talent to compete for a NCAA appearance next season if they can narrow the learning curve.

Only time will tell though. Until then, I guess we should just be worried about this roster exodus.

Retired Numbers Vs. Retired Jerseys

It was great news to see Kameron Jones confirm his commitment to Marquette shortly after Shaka Smart was hired as the new men's basketball head coach.

 

While having Tennessee's Division 2A Mr. Basketball in the fold shows that players are excited to be playing for Shaka when they originally committed to play for former head coach Steve Wojciechowski, something struck me as odd in Kam's announcement.

He is wearing a Marquette uniform with number three on it! You know Dwyane Wade's number. The one that currently hangs in the Fiserv Forum rafters.

  Photo courtesy of my first ever trip to FiServ Forum

I could not help wondering would Marquette actually let him wear number three? 

I was soon surprised to get my answer from Marquette Deputy Athletic Director Mike Broeker and Jones himself.

 

So, it turns out No. 3 will never be worn again. 

It got me thinking is Wade's number officially retired then? I thought Marquette retired jerseys and not numbers. 

That was the position going back to 2006 (and again in 2015 with Haanif Cheatem) when Lazar Hayward started his freshman campaign wearing No. 24. Problem with that number was it hung in the Bradley Center rafters in honor of the great George Thompson. The controversy was legendary head coach Al McGuire told Thompson at the time No. 24 was retired and Thompson was taken aback suddenly to find out it was not true. 

I remember having an off the record conversation at the time with a Marquette Athletic Department official who explained why it was jersey retirement and not number retirement. The simple explanation was citing North Carolina's policy on retiring jerseys because if they retired numbers, UNC would run out of numbers. The analogy makes sense, even though UNC does have eight retired numbers, since the NCAA has a rule banning numbers starting or ending with six through nine and any number over 55 (If you want to know why, it is all explained here).

Broeker’s tweet and the two attempts to issue 24 only to be changed still makes it feel like some numbers are retired. So is it retired numbers or jerseys?

The official Marquette stance on retired jerseys vs. numbers according to Senior Associate Athletic Director Scott Kuykendall is Marquette retires jerseys. Although he told me during our email exchange that conversations will be had before issuing any of the retired jerseys (Page 47 when you click on the link) numbers to a future player (I would assume that is one of the reasons no one is ever wearing three again).

Now that Marquette is playing in the Fiserv Forum, will there be more jersey going into the rafters? Can Marquette even put any more jersey banners in the rafters or does the lease with the Fiserv Forum limit how many banners Marquette can have?

The answer according to Kuykendall is there is no limit on how many jerseys Marquette can hang in the rafters. If it got tight up in the space alloted, the university can always adjust the banner size. 

He also added that the program does have some jerseys on its radar it would like to add to the rafters. He was unable to disclose though what the criteria is to be considered for jersey retirement as it is university classified internal document. For those who have never worked in document classification or in the corporate world, it is a nice way of saying we have standards and it is written down but it is not for public knowledge. Hey, Marquette is a private institution so that can do what they want I guess.

I am left thinking then what other jerseys should retired? Also what numbers should have a hard no always when future conversations might take place? Well, I will tackle this in a series throughout the off-season. 

If you got some players you feel should have a banner with its number hanging at Fiserv, feel free to tweet me your suggestions and safe for work reasons why to @toddjdub

Henry Ellenson's draft stock - An interview with DraftExpress founder Jonathan Givony

I was fortunate to spend a few minutes yesterday with Jonathan Givony, the founder of DraftExpress to discuss Henry Ellenson and the 2016 NBA draft.  Givony has been kind enough over the last four or five years to give his time to us as he has weighed in on MU draft hopefuls like Vander Blue, Jimmy Butler, Dominic James, Steve Novak and Wes Matthews.

Jonathan and his wife Rebecca just had a baby last week, so we kept the questions short and sweet.

Cracked Sidewalks:  Why do you have Henry at #9?  Earlier in the year you had him as high as 5 or 6.  Other mock draft sites and draft experts have Henry anywhere from 5 to 18.   That seems a pretty big range for someone that is considered a top ten pick.  What have you seen that puts him in that 9 or 10 spot at this point?

Jonathan Givony:  If you are top 10 pick, that's pretty good.  That shows how good we think he is, nothing negative.  We are always evaluating not just against yourself, but others in the draft class.  Other guys are stepping up, improving their draft stock, so some guys will move down when others move up.  There is a give and take.   

I would say some of it, if he were in the draft 5 years ago, there might be a little more excitement about him.  That 6'10" power forward who struggles on defense and doesn't really give you a lot of rim protection to be a full-time small ball center, there isn't as big of an appetite now for those guys now as there was 5 years ago for guys like that.  There is more of a trend moving toward guys that block shots, or more agile and mobile in terms of moving their feet and guarding on the perimeter. That isn't to say he can't get there.  I think he already made and improved substantially just off this year in college, the kid is 19 years old, so hard to say he can't continue to improve moving forward.

CS:  Does he have the athleticism at the NBA level to guard the type of guys he has to guard.  Secondly, does he have the shooting skills today to play on the outside, if needed?  Can he make the improvements there to be an outside threat

JG:  I think a lot of guys...there's not many 6'10 or 6"11" guys that start off where he is as a shooter, especially those that can do other things, too.  I think he will continue to improve there over time. He's not consistent right now, shoot's it a little flat, has a little extra motion going on. He's probably better in the mid-range spots than at the three.  He will get there, but you're not going to throw him into a NBA playoff game tomorrow and say go to make shots for me.  He's more like an all around scorer, but not necessarily a great shooter.

CS:  A general question about the draft and the NBDL.  Seems like the last few years a rather large number of draft picks have been sent down to the D-League to work on their game as opposed to say 5 years ago.  Do you see this as a potential option for Ellenson...I know that is difficult to answer without knowing who is going to draft him.

JG:   The NBA has become a lot more closely with the D-League, adding their own franchises.  Teams understand they need to invest in it, more money into scouting, coaching staffs, facilities and such.  It's really no longer a negative to send a guy down to the D-League at all.  You're giving them extra reps with an extension of your coaching staff, put them in real games, real situations, and help them work on the things you want them to improve on.  A lot of the best teams in the NBA utilize the D-League really well.  The Spurs, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Toronto, and others are very invested.  That's the difference between now and 5 years ago.  They may not have seen the value, but the D-League has become so much more serious, more professional and a good place to develop young players.

CS:   Final question.  Final prognostication.  If you were to think 10 to 12 years down the road, is Henry a future all-star or more of a 12 and 6 type guy.  One of the criticisms that we have heard some Marquette fans or basketball fans in general state that he is already closer to his ceiling than others.  Perhaps not as much upside is the argument.  Would you agree or disagree with that assertion?

JG:  Maybe he is closer to his ceiling because he is already a really really polished player at age 19, and I don't think that's not something you want to hold against him.  While other guys are only now getting into shape for the pre-draft process, he transformed his body 2 years ago.  He took this seriously for a longer time isn't something you hold against him.  At the same time, he's only 19 years old.  If you look at the NBA playoffs now, there are so many guys who are big time impact players and if you look back and say what were these guys like at age 19 and they were really nothing.  I think he has a chance to be really really good, especially if he becomes a better shooter and as he becomes more serious about playing defense.  I wouldn't project him as an all-star.  There's only a couple of those in every draft class, but I do think he has a chance to be a starter in the NBA.  

That was the end of our questions, short and sweet this time.  Perhaps we'll do a post draft recap with Jonathan as a follow-up.  

The NBA draft takes place on June 23.

My eyes....my eyes. MU winning streak over, sets new record for futility on offense set in 1948

That was difficult to watch.  In the span of about 2 hours, the longest home winning streak (27 games) in the nation came crashing down in thumping fashion as the Warriors managed to only score 35 total points while losing to Ohio State 52-35.

The game was actually tied at the half at 19-19, before Ohio State asserted themselves with a balance of inside and outside scoring.  For the Warriors, guard play and terrible shooting was their nemesis all game long.  MU finished shooting just 5.6% from beyond the arc on 1 of 18 shooting.  For the game, MU shot under 20%.

MU's point guard play needs significant improvement if they plan to win the Big East conference as the experts have predicted.  Only one assist from Derrick Wilson.   As a team, twenty turnovers to only four assists is a recipe for disaster.

The 35 points scored at home was a record low during the shot clock era for Marquette.  The only performance that rivaled it was last year's NCAA loss to Syracuse when MU managed to score 38, but that was on a neutral court site.   The last time MU scored fewer than 36 points at home was in 1948 when MU lost at home to Wisconsin and managed only  34 points..



AP Recap

Boxscore

Legendary

Al McGuire would have broken the Internet.

That’s been bouncing around in my head ever since Buzz danced on West Virginia’s home court.  The resulting Twitter explosion was stunning, followed by stories on Deadspin/The Big Lead/every sports website, and then television coverage on ESPN.  Buzz felt he had to apologize to the entire WVU administration and address it multiple times in follow up interviews.  Regardless, WVU fans still hate Buzz.  Nobody cares about those turncoats, though.

However, in comparison to the antics of Al, dancing to “Country Roads” was nothing.  Can anyone imagine what would have happened after hearing that McGuire got in a fight with one of his players at halftime?  Or after the 1972 fight with South Carolina, where Al said, "A waltz... a bar-hall bouncer wouldn't take his coat off for this one."  

Yeah, Al McGuire would have definitely broken the Internet.

I like to picture Al in the same situation.  I like to think he wouldn’t have apologized to the WVU administration… or that he would have taunted the students going into apoplectic “hold me back bro” mode.  Maybe he would have quipped at the end, “It’s a good song.  Get over it.”  Of course, who knows what McGuire would have really done?  I certainly don’t, but that’s my impression of Al based on his legend as the myths and facts blend.

Al is a legend, but he's only one part of the truly unique heritage of Marquette in the 1970s.  Marquette had the colorful coach, the flashy uniforms, the cool nickname, and the on-court success.  Most importantly, the Warriors had success on the court.  Just like several generations will never fully appreciate Al McGuire, it’s almost as hard to understand how legendary the entire Marquette program was in the Seventies.

Or can we?

Last night's game hurts... no doubt.  Marquette played an atypical and frustrating game.  The defense was good enough to win, but just not enough shots went down.  However, it really was a remarkable and wonderful season.  Second in the BIG EAST?  A Three Seed?  Back to back Sweet Sixteens?  My biggest disappointment about last night is knowing that there won't be any more basketball until October.  It's so long until October.

For the first time since 1977, Marquette stands poised to continue its vault back to nationally recognized excellence.  Marquette has the flashy uniforms and the on-court success is starting to come.  And although they broke the mold with Al, if there was ever a coach with the potential to be legendary like him, it’s Buzz.  Consider his collection of youtube highlights (Walk it Out), random catchphrases “Lion hunter,” and rambling storyteller-level press conferences.  But mostly there is the consistent on-court success.

Buzz himself would state that he’s too humble to even be considered in comparison with McGuire or others.  It’s as unfair to both coaches as it is easy to draw parallels.  But as a lion hunter, we better believe that Buzz thinks he could be legendary too.  For a coach, what bigger lion is there to hunt?

Can today’s Marquette return to a level of being powerful again?  It’s not wrong to believe that Marquette can achieve greatness like in the Seventies, if not necessarily become the second best program of the decade.  MU has the financial commitment, the quirky coach, the flashy uniforms, and now the consistent return of on-court success.  Despite losing two first team BIG EAST players, next year Marquette will be more experienced, taller, and deeper.  Buzz has shown the ability to cobble together consistent tourney success, and there's no reason to doubt anything else next year.  We have something special brewing in Milwaukee, and it can be its own form of legendary.

Now if we could only do something about the Warrior nickname, everything would be perfect... 

Crucial test failed. MU at season crossroads

Marquette had a golden opportunity tonight to win a key game at home against a quality St. John's club and take a step closer to a NCAA tournament bid. In the process, they would be on their way to possibly another double digit win season in the Big East, a record they have never missed since joining the conference. It would require passing a crucial test against a club that has been iffy on the road this year in the Red Storm. The Warriors failed this test on Al's night and now faces a critical crossroads in their season.

MU found themselves in a similar situation as other games, a solid lead in the second half (7 points) only to watch it whither away in a matter of moments. This time, however, MU couldn't claw back and almost seemed to accept their fate.

It all started to unwind just after the 16:50 mark with MU up 45 to 38. In the next five minutes the Johnnies go on a 15-5 run with no MU timeouts called (there were two tv timeouts in that period). That followed with another run of 7-2 before Buzz called a T.O and the Golden Eagles trailing 60-52 with 9:21 to play. The game was effectively over right there. The Storm pushed the lead to 13 points before MU was able to claw back to within 8 briefly. By the time the game ended, MU had dropped an 80-68 decision and a significant blow to their NCAA tournament hopes.

Another dismal defensive performance as MU gave up 80 points on their home court. A whopping 18 turnovers were committed, the highest in the Buzz Williams era we believe. What's worse, the offensive juggernaut that was the mainstay of MU seems to have disappeared. The third straight game of scoring less than 70 points as MU shot an anemic 22% from beyond the arc and less than 44% overall. The Warriors free throw shooting was about the only thing keeping them in the game.

Box Score


Buzz Williams and MU now face a critical crossroads to their season. They are 6-7 in the Big East and 15-11 overall. Their RPI after the loss now sits at 66, below such teams as Michigan, Penn State, Marshall, Dayton and a slew of other teams considered outside of the NCAA tournament discussion. Was tonight the fatal blow for their chances or do they gather themselves and turn it around? They will be favored to win 3 of their final 5 which would leave them with a 9-9 record. It is not inconceivable to see them go 4-1 with a win at Seton Hall, but it's equally not inconceivable to think the team might have given up. I don't think Buzz will let them do that, but the body language in this game was difficult to watch. A few boo birds came out amongst some of the crowd, either as a result of frustration or what might have been perceived as a lack of urgency in such a crucial game.

With a NCAA field of 68 teams, largest in NCAA history and a team that has been largely viewed as "safely in" the field the last month, the latest turn is not good news. A lot of pride and a season can be salvaged over the next five games, beginning with a must win against a tough Seton Hall team at the Bradley Center this weekend. It's do or die time, a loss to the Hall at home would be the final blow. Time to regroup because there is time for nothing else.

Pros and Cons of adding Korie Lucious to the Marquette basketball team

A variety of sources (twitter, USA Today, Detroit Free Press) in the last week have indicated that former Michigan State Spartan and Milwaukee native, Korie Lucious, will transfer to another school after his dismissal by Tom Izzo. The two leading candidates appear to be Iowa State University and Marquette. Lucious visited Iowa State recently and reported to have a good time....of course has anyone ever read a post by a recruit anywhere where they said they had a terrible time? Lucious has several "best friends" on the Iowa State team, including former Spartan Chris Allen and Milwaukee native Diante Garrett.

He is expected to visit Marquette soon, though he's certainly been around the Marquette campus many times throughout the years, including Summer pickup games with members of the UW-M and Marquette teams. He knows the campus and Buzz Williams.

That leads us to the pressing question....is it a good idea for Marquette and Buzz Williams to take on Korie Lucious?

Let's take a look at the Pros and Cons of such a transfer.


CONS

• Lucious was recently kicked off the Michigan State program by Tom Izzo, one of the legendary coaches in the NCAA who has been known to have a fairly liberal leash. If you're kicked off by Izzo, you've done something seriously wrong. Why was he kicked off other than the standard "Conduct Detrimental To The Team"? Rumors aplenty on the actual reason, if you search the internet they are there to be found. One would imagine if either of the two most consistent rumors were true, there would be no chance of him coming to MU...one would imagine. Of course, who knows if either of those rumors are true or perhaps our staff believes Mr. Lucious deserves yet another chance.

• Lucious was suspended for the season opener this year back in November after a conviction on reckless driving, a charge that originally was driving while intoxicated but was reduced.

• Lucious is not foreign to transfers....he originally played at Rufus King for two years before a controversial transfer to Pius XI to play for Joel Claassen. Of course, he only has one year of college eligibility left so this will be his last rodeo in the NCAA.

• Tying up 2 years of a scholarship for one year of actual playing time? Does that make sense for a kid that doesn't exactly have the greatest Career College Stats? 6.5 points per game is a career high, he doesn't shoot well and his assist total rather pedestrian when you account for the highly touted recruits on the MSU roster the last few years. His Assist to Turnover ratio is poor

• He has never lived up to the hype coming out of high school. He was rated as highly as 28th in one service and top 100 overall in the RSCI at 87. Is this because the talent level at MSU didn't allow him to blossom by being the main guy?
  

• By taking Lucious, does this push MU out of the running for some other top guards for the 2012-13 year?

• From an image perspective, does MU need to add a kid that has had these most recent issues to it's squad?

PROS

• Has NCAA tournament experience, including playing in the NCAA Championship game and two Final Fours.

• Plays the point guard position where MU seems to have no true super star at that position....then again, Lucious isn't a super star either, but the depth would be nice.

• Since Lucious was suspended and ultimately kicked off, Michigan State is in an epic free fall. That being said, I would argue they were fairly middle of the road even with Lucious, but they certainly have gone down several additional notches since his ouster.

• One would assume after multiple chances, multiple suspensions and a dismissal, he would finally be willing to listen and play his final year of hoops the right way. The year off could be a blessing and a shot of maturity for the young man.
  

An interesting decision ahead for both the young man and a young coach at Marquette.

Big East's Big Spender -- Marquette hoops

This morning's New York Times features a lengthy article on the cost of competing in men's Big East basketball and Marquette comes out on top -- in spending.

The article points out that the Big East is "sensitive to the notion that the football-playing universities..........are pulling away from the non-football universities" and points to programs "outside college football’s top division that are seemingly annual N.C.A.A. tournament contenders — Georgetown, Villanova, Marquette....."

How does Marquette maintain a competitive program in the Big East? The answer is simple according to Big East commissioner Dave Gavitt, "Part is investment. The other part is an institutionwide commitment to being good in men’s basketball.”

Truer words have never been spoken about the secret of Marquette's recent basketball success.

According to the United States Department of Education, Marquette spends more money on men's basketball than any team in the league, a hefty $10.3 million. While that number is huge so apparently are Marquette's profits from the program. According to an article by Don Walker at the Journal-Sentinel "Marquette says it generated revenue of $13,446,395, which means a profit of $3,139,847." Marquette earns a healthy 23% profit margin on its men's basketball program.

Walker's article is loaded with detail about the specifics of Marquette's situation including the mind-blowing notion that 98% of all revenue for the university's athletic department comes from the men's basketball team.

The net of all of this math? Marquette is extraordinarily reliant on the men's hoops program to fund the university's participation in the Big East. Is this money well spent? There's no doubt.

Courtesy of Mike Broeker, Deputy Athletic Director for Marquette, here's an table which captures the regular season performance for the last five years in the Big East. The first column represents the average regular season finish, the second column is Big East wins in aggregate, and the final column counts up top 5 league finishes.

Team	Avg.	Wins	Top5s
Pittsburgh	3.4	60	4
Louisville	4.4	59	3
Marquette	4.8	54	5
Villanova	4.7	58	3
Georgetown	5	55	3
West Virginia	5	54	3
Syracuse	5.8	52	2
Connecticut	6.2	55	3
Notre Dame	6.6	49	2
Seton Hall	10.4	36	0
Cincinnati	10.8	33	0
Providence	11.4	33	0
DePaul	12.8	21	0
St.John’s	12.8	29	0
Rutgers	13.4	20	0
SouthFlorida	13.6	20	0

Impressive stuff, I'd say. Marquette is clearly one of the Big East's most consistently competitive programs and is investing to maintain the program's trajectory. The return on that investment also enables the university to build successful programs such as women's basketball, cross country, golf, women's soccer and now an improving men's soccer program (among others), and also plays a hand in alumni outreach and engagement.

Marquette takes on greatest team ever assembled and coached by Darth Sidious

Marquette is in a position to shock the world today. They will attempt to sling the stone at the evil Philistine, Goliath, in an effort to destroy the evil that is the University of Wisconsin @ Madison basketball team. This will be a challenge unlike any other, for the Marquette Golden Eagles today take on the greatest team ever assembled. The Badgers are led into battle by Darth Sidious himself...manifested here on earth in many shapes (the Grinch, Jimmy Hoffa, Dracula, the dad on Empty Nest) who is often referred to by the name of William "Bo" Francis Ryan, God, his holiness, St. Bo, or just Bo.

Don't ever call him Francis....he'll kill you. He's from Philly, you know.


Marquette has won the last two meetings against the Madison extension of the University of Wisconsin system, despite having lesser men at the helm in Tom Crean and Brent "Buzz" Williams. With the Golden Eagles severely limited by injuries and youth, the prospects for today against the greatest coach to ever walk the sidelines in the state (not named McGuire, Lombardi, Holmgren, Antrim, Cobb, Dukiet or Dunleavy) are slim to none.

Wisconsin brings to the table the vaunted Swing, a system so revolutionary, so precise, so complex and simple at the same time, that only a rare breed from the upper midwest is usually able to execute it. The Swing has resulted in the State Capital extension of UW to zero Final Fours during his tenure, but many wins in a decade where the Big Ten has been hitting on at least 3 of 8 cylinders. Today should be no exception. The Badgers are favored to win this game and coming off a stinging loss to the Green Bay extension of the University of Wisconsin, they will be ready to swing like they've never swung before.

If Marquette were to win, an impossibility but we'll throw it out there just for giggles, it would mark a three game winning streak in the series for the first time since 1984. The last 8 meetings have been split 4 games a piece.

We look for an entertaining game today and some serious home cooking by the zebras, a Bo Ryan special. No one enjoys a glass of whine like Bo Ryan enjoys whine.

Final score is likely to be 42 to 38 unless Bo really gets the turntables pushed forward and we might see both teams break 50.

As a reminder, Bo would like to remind everyone to read. On that note, we would like to thank you for reading our blog. Let's hope David can sling that rock just right today as MU is the decided underdog. Go Marquette!

Can you imagine this promo with the football team at the Madison extension? What grade level of book would have to be used for the visual? Mr. Brown Can Moo, Can You?

Marquette Early Season Tea Leaves

Before we kick into the preview of Xavier later, it's worthwhile to look at Marquette and how Marquette has been performing. This ended up being just a little more information than would fit in the Xavier preview. Let us state up-front, this is all just early returns based on four games, and there are almost no conclusions that can be drawn from the data. That said, we found it interesting to look at some of the early clues.

From the Pomeroy Scouting report:

Consistent with Last Year
Yet again, Marquette is doing a great job protecting the ball (TO% of 16%). If you recall, Marquette was #11 in the country last year at protecting the ball. Granted, this is early in the season, but the cross-season consistency with protecting the ball is great.

In addition, Marquette has also done a good job of scoring 2-point baskets this season, which was also a strength last year.

Inconsistent with Last Year
Marquette has also done a good job of effective field goal percentage (57.5%; #19 overall), forcing turnovers (27.3%, #16 overall) and limiting offensive rebounds by opponents (21.8%, #6 overall). The Warriors did not do any of these things particularly well last year (#85, #122, and #97, respectively), so it remains to be seen if that trend will continue this season.

What has been a big difference from last year is the Free Throw Rate disparity. Last year, Marquette tried (and often succeeded) at making more free throws than their opponent attempted. This has not been the same situation so far, as Marquette has been getting to the line less than their opponents early. Some of this can be chalked up to the zone defenses, and some of this can be attributed to the different mix of players. In addition, the results both offensively and defensively have been pretty variable, so I expect the results to smooth themselves out over time.

What has also been somewhat concerning is how well opponents have been able to score. In comparison to how well other BE teams are playing, opponents have been able to hit a higher percentage of field goals against MU. Part of this is also because opponents are getting to the line more often against Marquette than they are against other BE teams.

As Buzz likes to say, the team's character will be revealed over the entire season, but especially starting tomorrow. Check back later for our Xavier preview.

Videos: Dwight Burke & Team Academics

DBurke:



Academics:

'Smart' promotion by MU

Now this is a great promotion by Marquette:

Marquette Athletics announced Saturday that two students will win a blue or gold Marquette-themed Smart Car as part of the 2008-09 Fanatics Rewards Program. The Smart Cars are courtesy of Bergstrom Automotive and have a retail value of about $17,000 each.

With the new freshmen on campus and the rest of the student body returning, the athletic department is pulling out all the stops to rally the base to maintain a high level of interest in the program.

The incoming crop of freshmen students figure to be at the institution for another stellar era of hoops --- Rivals.com currently has Buzz Willliams' 2009 recruiting class as the 8th best in the nation (and incredibly, only the fourth best in the Big East). With the recent departure of Trevor Mbakwe, Buzz will be able to smartly add to the haul in the coming months. Bob Gibbons slots MU in as the nation's 5th best class (behind two other Big East schools, wow). Talk about it at MUScoop.

Big East Preview - Part Two

Back now with Part Two of the Big East Preview. In case you missed Part One, you can find it at this link. If you want more details on the factors I'm using, you can check it out here.

The data I used is taken from Pomeroy's site, where I extracted conference data only and worked with that. As a reminder, the factors under consideration were:

1. A team that underperformed or overperformed based on last year's stats
2. Consistency (or Inconsistency) of the team last year
   
3. Quality of Junior and Senior players (Using data provided by Villanova by the Numbers and then modified)
   
4. Regression of a team towards 0.500
   
5. Quality of incoming players based on RSCI
   

Before we move onto the the top eight teams (Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia), I wanted to make sure that something was clarified.

Projections are forecasts based on limited data. They are inherently inaccurate. Don't focus too much on any predictions regarding specific Wins/Losses or where the selected team is ranked in the preview. The most important value (IMO) is in the areas that I regard as statistical outliers, or where a team may have a red flag or potential bonus.

Clear? Onto the preview

Competing for a BET first round bye
The next six teams are all fairly close, and I'd expect each team to be somewhat in contention for a spot in the top four

#8 - Syracuse

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Syracuse (9-9), should have finished with a record of 9.9 - 8.1.
  
• Consistency - Modest impact. Syracuse was one of the more consistent teams in conference last year.
• Quality of Returning Starters - limited impact. Syracuse returns relatively few junior and senior minutes. They also lost Donte Green but will gain productivity from the return of both Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins.
  
• Expected Regression - They were at 0.500 last year, so no impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen -Syracuse welcomes 6'7 WF Kris Joseph to a team that was already young and talented. Bonus
  

Projection - 10-8. Expect Syracuse to be better this year. They're definitely talented, but are they too young to compete for a top spot? Expectations for the 'Cuse may be understated.

#7 - Notre Dame

• 2007 Results - Significant Overperformer. Based on their stats in conference, Notre Dame (14-4), should have finished with a record of 11.7 - 6.3. Red Flag
  
• Consistency - Modest impact. Notre Dame was one of the more consistent teams in conference last year, which means that I don't attribute their overperformance to inconsistency.
• Quality of Returning Starters - Significant Impact. Notre Dame returns one of the highest percentages of Junior and Senior minutes, as well as last year's BE POY, Floppy McFlopperson. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression - Significant impact. Based on their win % last year, Notre Dame should feel some pull back towards 0.500. Red Flag
  
• Incoming Freshmen - No Impact
  

Projection - 11-7. Despite the big advantage of returning almost everyone except the productive Rob Kurz, I see some major red flags for ND.

#6 - Pittsburgh

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Pittsburgh (10-8), should have finished with a record of 10.7 - 7.3. Of course, some of this was due to the injury suffered by Levance Fields.
  
• Consistency - No impact. Pitt was just slightly more inconsistent than league average.
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - limited impact. Although they return most of their players, relatively few of those players are junior and senior returning minutes. (This obviously changes if Mike Cook is granted an 8th year of eligibility). Pitt's on the wrong side of league average.
  
• Expected Regression - No impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Pittsburgh brings in 6'5 WF Nasir Robinson (#81). Too bad he's not from New York City. I bet you didn't know that Pitt gets a lot of players from NYC. Jamie Dixon also added solid backcourt performer Travon Woodall who should take some of the minutes vacated by the departed Keith Benjamin and Ronald Ramon. Bonus
  

Projection - 11-7. As mentioned at the beginning of this section, any of the teams in here could finish between 8th and 3rd. So why is Pitt down at #6? Because I don't like Pitt! Refreshing candor from Cracked Sidewalks, and hey... Pitt is above ND.

#5 - Georgetown

• 2007 Results - Significant overperformer. Based on their stats in conference, Georgetown (15-3), should have finished with a record of 13.7 - 4.3. This is just using math to say what everyone in conference knows... Georgetown got lucky last year against West Virginia, Villanova, and even Marquette. Red Flag
  
• Consistency - Modest impact. Georgetown was one of the more consistent teams in conference last year
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Modest impact. I know you're thinking that Georgetown lost everyone from that team (Roy Hibbert, Jonathan Wallace, Little Rivers, Little Ewing, and Vernon Macklin). However, even though they're on the low side of league average for returning junior and senior minutes, they're not at the bottom of the league.
  
• Expected Regression - Significant impact. There should be a strong pull on Georgetown's win percentage. Red Flag
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Fresh off of the 07 recruiting class that was top 10 RSCI, Georgetown brings in FOUR players in the RSCI Top 100 list, but can the kids step in and immediately replace the veteran production from last season? JTIII will also welcome 6'10" FSU transfer Julian Vaughn to campus this fall. Bonus
  

Projection - 12-6. Conventional wisdom is that Georgetown will be significantly down this year. I'm less bearish on the Hoyas' chances than many, despite the two big red flags listed above. The biggest reason is that GU will still have a decent number of returning contributors, as well as a huge influx of talent.

#4 - West Virginia

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, West Virginia (11-7), should have finished with a record of 11.5 - 6.5.
  
• Consistency - Significant impact. West Virginia was one of the more inconsistent teams in conference last year. Just as mentioned with Providence, this is a red flag, but possible bonus. If Year 2 of the Huggins Experience results in the 'Eers playing more consistently, then that's a boost. Red Flag (but possible bonus)
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Modest impact. Yes, I know that West Virginia lost Joe Alexander and Darris Nichols. However, West Virginia still returns one of the higher percentages of Junior and Senior minutes.
  
• Expected Regression - Limited impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - The late addition of former IU signee Devin Ebanks (#22) to go with Kevin Jones (#49) are big reasons why WVU could surprise to the upside this year. Bonus

Projection - 12-6. This is a team that could just as easily finish 8th as well. I just think that Huggins will get West Virginia to play more consistently and they won't be as bad.

#3 - Marquette

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Marquette (11-7), should have finished with a record of 11.3 - 6.7.
  
• Consistency - Significant impact. Marquette was the most inconsistent teams in conference last year. We even covered it in some depth on this site. Just as mentioned with West Virginia, this is a red flag, but possible bonus. The big question is if experience will result in more consistency, or if the inconsistency is a result of a guard-heavy roster. I hope it's the former, but fear it's the latter. Red Flag (but possible bonus)
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Significant impact. Three 1,000 point scorers and a junior in Lazar Hayward that was among the league's most improved players last year. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression - Limited impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - No impact. No offense to Chris Otule, but there are no incoming players on the RSCI Top 100 list. However, there is hope that new juco players Joe Fulce and Jimmy Butler will provide solid contributions.
  

Projection - 12-6. Before anyone gets on me for making this a homer pick, I'll say that this is a team that could just as easily finish 8th. I'm picking Marquette to finish third for one single reason: this is the year for Marquette and the Three Amigos to achieve great things. There is no grace period for new coach Buzz Williams. Expectations are, and should be, very high.

Truth is, this team underachieved in the regular season last year, yet it returns every meaningful player and introduces a few potentially useful spare parts. Despite coaching turnover, this mix should equate to more wins despite the overall improvement of the Big East across the board. MU has the veteran backcourt that coaches crave, admirable depth, and the seasoning of three straight NCAA appearances.

If this team significantly underachieves with all of their experience and talent, I could care less how good of a recruiter Buzz Williams is. No matter how good the incoming talent will be starting in 2009, Marquette will take a significant step back after losing McNeal, James, and Matthews. Anyone else not that interested in two disappointing years? That puts the pressure on performing well in 2008 - 2009.

The Top Two
I think these two teams will be the class of the Big East next year:

#2 - Connecticut

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, UConn (13-5), should have finished with a record of 12.3-5.7. Chalk one up to the Hall of Fame coach.
  
• Consistency - No impact. UConn was about league average
  
• Quality of Returning Starters. UConn returns the highest percentage of Junior and Senior experience in the league. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression. Some regression expected, but not significant
  
• Incoming Freshmen. UConn brings in the 6'1 PG Kemba Walker (#24) and 6'6 WG Nate Miles (#60) to another team that was good and now has a lot of experience. In particular look for point guard Kemba Walker to start fast as coach Jim Calhoun waits for A.J. Price to make a full recovery from knee surgery. Also, Miles can really play and will make UConn fans quickly forget the (for now) departed Stanley Robinson. Bonus
  

Projection - 13-5. At the end of the day, I just think that they're not the best team in the league. But they're close.

#1 - Louisville

• 2007 Results - Underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Louisville (14-4), should have finished with a record of 14.9 - 3.1. Injuries surely played a role
  
• Consistency - Louisville was one of the most consistent teams in the league, which helps when you're good. Bonus
  
• Quality of Returning Starters. Again, UL returns one of the highest number of Junior and Senior minutes. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression. Significant regression expected. Red flag
• Incoming Freshmen. Louisville brings in the RSCI #5 player, PF Samardo Samuels, to a loaded and experienced team. Bonus
• Wildcard: Derrick Caracter. Who knows what to expect from this talented yet troubled collegian. For now, he's factored out of the equation.
  

Projection - 14-4. Pitino hauls in the BE title he should have won last year.

Again, the focus is more on the potential bonus or red flag areas for each team, instead of the projected wins/losses or projected final ranking. Any of the teams from #3 through #9 could realistically fit in any random order. Besides, if I could accurately model results, I'd be typing this from my own private desert island.

Thanks to NYWarrior for his additional contributions. Finally, want to review the data in depth? Here is a link to the spreadsheet. (The file opens up automatically)

Ceilings and Forest Fires

A year ago, I blogged an entry called "A Ticking Clock" .. I'll spare the details, but it was written after being crushed by MSU in the NCAAs. It was about a coach who, in 8 seasons, had brought Marquette to a new level, where the team existed in the rarified air of the top 25. It credited him with a number of wonderful achievements.

Crean brought excitement, attendance, and exposure back to Marquette like nobody's business. What he did not bring, was post-season success, and the clock was ticking. I don't write that sentence today as a monument to sour-grapes. Without D. Wade, one of the greatest NBA players in years, Crean has a grand total of one NCAA victory, and that happened 12 days ago. One. Uno.

13 days ago, I was nervous. Had Crean not won that game versus Kentucky, had we lost, we would have gone 8 of 9 seasons without an NCAA victory, it would have been clear that Crean could not win in March, and had hit his ceiling.

Now, lots of people like that ceiling. Top 25 rankings, top third of the Big East, lots of wins, exposure, and the kids graduate. Some fans are just happy to be in the top 64, just making it to the tournament. I don't subscribe to that math. All of that stuff is very very important, to be sure, but the final exam is winning in March and you've gotta win one every so often. If you're paid like a top 10 coach, you should deliver wins, exposure, AND win a few in March. Otherwise, what's the point?

But Crean won a game, we beat UK two weeks ago. With the same team next year, the expectations would have been higher, yet no Marquette fan would be surprised with a 1st or 2nd round bow-out, because it'd happened so many other times. Last week, I predicted a 12-6 season with 1-1 in the BET, and 1-1 in the NCAAs. We were getting ready to watch the same movie again. That's a pathetic expectation for a team with 3 senior starters and perhaps 3 NBA players on its roster, and I don't think the blame lies with the players.

So am I glad Crean quit? I wouldn't say that. And certainly not the disrespectful way in which Crean pulled the trigger, not notifying Marquette officials nor the team in advance. There's a lot of visceral anger on the internet right now, directed at a guy who's been promoting the program as a family organization, yet coldly divorced us at the drop of a hat.

I look at this like a forest fire started by a bolt from the sky. Marquette needs to act quickly and boldly to put the fire out. Some trees will burn and the forest will be forever changed. But new growth will take root. We'll get a new coach, and the movie will be different. Are we at risk to substantially decline? In the Big East, hell yeah.

In the short-term, Marquette could be very screwed, with future and current players and assistants leaving the team. In the long-term, we have a chance at a guy with a higher coaching ceiling, a better bench coach, someone who can recruit a balanced team so we don't rely on favorable matchups to win big games.

It could be a bumpy ride for the next few years, we'll be in re-building mode, but with the commitment that Marquette has shown, with assets like the Big East and the Al Center, MU has a great platform from which to rise again and achieve higher heights.

Know Thyself - Marquette's Numbers

Now that we've gone through an entire regular season, Marquette fans have a pretty good idea of what to expect. Or do we? After all, it's fairly common for fans to say that Marquette needs to force a lot of turnovers (true) or hit their three pointers (not quite true) in order to win. Therefore, in an effort for MU to "Know Thyself", we wanted to take a dive into the numbers for Marquette.

Marquette's Pomeroy Rating is #12. In fact, we've been hovering around the Top 10 all season, so we certainly are better than our seed (at least according to Pomeroy).

Marquette's Offensive Efficiency (Rank of #38) depends on:

• Our effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) and... that's it.
• Seriously, how well we do on offense basically boils down to the field goal percentage that Marquette achieves. For the season, our eFG% averages 50.7% (national rank of 141)
  
• Unfortunately, our offensive efficiency rank has been falling in the last month or so. The current rank of 38 is our lowest of the season and we are especially trending poorly at eFG%. Not. Good.
  

Of course, looking at the MU Scouting Report, we can see that MU is good in two other areas offensively.

• Marquette is #27 in the country at Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)
  
• We are #48 in the country at Turnover Rate (protecting the ball).
  

As we see below, OR% has been somewhat up and down for the whole season, but has been trending favorably lately. Marquette was ferocious on the boards in the Big East Tournament, and Kentucky is average at best at preventing Offensive Rebounds.

Where our team has really been good has been on the defensive end. Marquette's Defensive Efficiency (Rank of #6) depends on:

• Our Opponent's effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
  
• MU is #25 in the country at eFG% defense, holding opponents to an eFG% of 45.9%
  
• Our Opponent's Turnover Rate
• Marquette is #35 in the country at forcing turnovers, forcing a turnover rate of 23.9%, or almost one in four possessions
  
• Our Opponent's Free Throw Rate - if they shoot more free throws, then our defense suffers
  
• MU is #264 in the country at preventing their opponent from getting to the line
  

One can see that Marquette's defense is based on limiting our opponents from getting easy shots, and by forcing a lot of turnovers. How is Marquette able to limit our opponents and force turnovers? We are #3 in the country at three-point defense and we are #5 in the country at stealing the ball. Our perimeter defense is really quite good. Considering that Kentucky has adjusted their game plan to start on the perimeter more, that's a good sign for Marquette.

As is surely no surprise to Marquette fans, when we foul our opponents a lot we tend to lose. Fouls are going to play a huge role in this game on both sides.

Summary
How does Marquette win? Marquette has established their ability to win on the defensive end. Everything derives from the defensive pressure on the perimeter. Unfortunately, our offensive capabilities are not at the same level.

The last two NCAA tournament games have been an exaggeration of that team's capabilities. In 2006 (overall rating of 28 ; 7 seed in tournament), our Steve-Novak-driven offense was better than our defense, and that team got torched defensively by Alabama. In 2007 (overall Pomeroy rating of 38 ; 8 seed in tournament), our defense was better than our offense, and without Jerel McNeal we... let's not rehash the Michigan State game again. The fear is clearly that this year's team will falter offensively.

However, unlike the last two years, Marquette has a much stronger Pomeroy rating and we are underseeded instead of overseeded. In addition, this year's team doesn't just have a good defense. We have an elite defense that can help propel us forward.

Georgetown tops Marquette in overtime

Marquette squandered an 11-point second half lead and fell to the Georgetown Hoyas 70-68 in overtime this afternoon in Milwaukee.

The Golden Eagles used trademark defensive pressure to keep Georgetown out of sync for most of the game, but Patrick Ewing Jr's clutch play in the second half and a critical mistake by Dominic James late in regulation gave the Hoyas new life in overtime.

After weathering the Hoyas' late comeback, Marquette scrambled to gain a three point lead, 63-60, with just seconds remaining in regulation. That's when Jonathan Wallace went to work. Dominic James inexplicably fouled Wallace on a three-point attempt with less than three seconds remaining. The GU senior confidently drained all three freebies, tying the game at 63-63 and forcing overtime. Earlier in the second half, James fouled Wallace on a three-point attempt as well.

Late in overtime MU had a chance to tie the game, regaining possession with nine seconds remaining. MU failed to get a shot off, as James indecisively turned the ball over to end the game.

After trailing by 11 midway through the second half, Ewing keyed the Hoyas' revival. The forward buried a pivotal three-pointer to bring the Hoyas to within 54-50 with six minutes to play, and doled out a pair of assists, one to Wallace to give the Hoyas a 56-55 with 3:35 to play, their first lead since early in the opening minutes.

Wesley Matthews paced the Golden Eagles with a season-high 22 points. Jerel McNeal had 17 points, and Dominic James 15. Lazar Hayward was outclassed by DaJuan Summers, going 0-8 from the floor with four rebounds.

Although MU forced 21 Georgetown turnovers, that advantage was negated by the Golden Eagles' poor free throw shooting (61% on 22 of 36 from the stripe).

Wallace and Hibbert led the Hoyas with 20 points each.

With the loss, MU falls to 21-7 overall and 11-6 in the Big East.

Media Updates
Box Score

Marquette takes on UW-M

MU hosts UW-Milwaukee on Friday night at the Bradley Center. UW-Milwaukee fans are gearing up for the game by hosting a game watching party at the Klotsche Center which is four miles away from the Bradley Center.

Marquette students will be in attendance at the Bradley Center. Thousands of them, clad in blue and gold, cheering on the Marquette Golden Eagles as they square off against an alleged local rival scheduled only to placate the 'masses' -- many of whom will be packing the Klotsche Center. Marvelous.

Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm CST. Ring out Ahoya!

GoMarquette preview and game notes