Ceilings and Forest Fires

A year ago, I blogged an entry called "A Ticking Clock" .. I'll spare the details, but it was written after being crushed by MSU in the NCAAs. It was about a coach who, in 8 seasons, had brought Marquette to a new level, where the team existed in the rarified air of the top 25. It credited him with a number of wonderful achievements.

Crean brought excitement, attendance, and exposure back to Marquette like nobody's business. What he did not bring, was post-season success, and the clock was ticking. I don't write that sentence today as a monument to sour-grapes. Without D. Wade, one of the greatest NBA players in years, Crean has a grand total of one NCAA victory, and that happened 12 days ago. One. Uno.

13 days ago, I was nervous. Had Crean not won that game versus Kentucky, had we lost, we would have gone 8 of 9 seasons without an NCAA victory, it would have been clear that Crean could not win in March, and had hit his ceiling.

Now, lots of people like that ceiling. Top 25 rankings, top third of the Big East, lots of wins, exposure, and the kids graduate. Some fans are just happy to be in the top 64, just making it to the tournament. I don't subscribe to that math. All of that stuff is very very important, to be sure, but the final exam is winning in March and you've gotta win one every so often. If you're paid like a top 10 coach, you should deliver wins, exposure, AND win a few in March. Otherwise, what's the point?

But Crean won a game, we beat UK two weeks ago. With the same team next year, the expectations would have been higher, yet no Marquette fan would be surprised with a 1st or 2nd round bow-out, because it'd happened so many other times. Last week, I predicted a 12-6 season with 1-1 in the BET, and 1-1 in the NCAAs. We were getting ready to watch the same movie again. That's a pathetic expectation for a team with 3 senior starters and perhaps 3 NBA players on its roster, and I don't think the blame lies with the players.

So am I glad Crean quit? I wouldn't say that. And certainly not the disrespectful way in which Crean pulled the trigger, not notifying Marquette officials nor the team in advance. There's a lot of visceral anger on the internet right now, directed at a guy who's been promoting the program as a family organization, yet coldly divorced us at the drop of a hat.

I look at this like a forest fire started by a bolt from the sky. Marquette needs to act quickly and boldly to put the fire out. Some trees will burn and the forest will be forever changed. But new growth will take root. We'll get a new coach, and the movie will be different. Are we at risk to substantially decline? In the Big East, hell yeah.

In the short-term, Marquette could be very screwed, with future and current players and assistants leaving the team. In the long-term, we have a chance at a guy with a higher coaching ceiling, a better bench coach, someone who can recruit a balanced team so we don't rely on favorable matchups to win big games.

It could be a bumpy ride for the next few years, we'll be in re-building mode, but with the commitment that Marquette has shown, with assets like the Big East and the Al Center, MU has a great platform from which to rise again and achieve higher heights.

Know Thyself - Marquette's Numbers

Now that we've gone through an entire regular season, Marquette fans have a pretty good idea of what to expect. Or do we? After all, it's fairly common for fans to say that Marquette needs to force a lot of turnovers (true) or hit their three pointers (not quite true) in order to win. Therefore, in an effort for MU to "Know Thyself", we wanted to take a dive into the numbers for Marquette.

Marquette's Pomeroy Rating is #12. In fact, we've been hovering around the Top 10 all season, so we certainly are better than our seed (at least according to Pomeroy).

Marquette's Offensive Efficiency (Rank of #38) depends on:

• Our effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) and... that's it.
• Seriously, how well we do on offense basically boils down to the field goal percentage that Marquette achieves. For the season, our eFG% averages 50.7% (national rank of 141)
  
• Unfortunately, our offensive efficiency rank has been falling in the last month or so. The current rank of 38 is our lowest of the season and we are especially trending poorly at eFG%. Not. Good.
  

Of course, looking at the MU Scouting Report, we can see that MU is good in two other areas offensively.

• Marquette is #27 in the country at Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)
  
• We are #48 in the country at Turnover Rate (protecting the ball).
  

As we see below, OR% has been somewhat up and down for the whole season, but has been trending favorably lately. Marquette was ferocious on the boards in the Big East Tournament, and Kentucky is average at best at preventing Offensive Rebounds.

Where our team has really been good has been on the defensive end. Marquette's Defensive Efficiency (Rank of #6) depends on:

• Our Opponent's effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
  
• MU is #25 in the country at eFG% defense, holding opponents to an eFG% of 45.9%
  
• Our Opponent's Turnover Rate
• Marquette is #35 in the country at forcing turnovers, forcing a turnover rate of 23.9%, or almost one in four possessions
  
• Our Opponent's Free Throw Rate - if they shoot more free throws, then our defense suffers
  
• MU is #264 in the country at preventing their opponent from getting to the line
  

One can see that Marquette's defense is based on limiting our opponents from getting easy shots, and by forcing a lot of turnovers. How is Marquette able to limit our opponents and force turnovers? We are #3 in the country at three-point defense and we are #5 in the country at stealing the ball. Our perimeter defense is really quite good. Considering that Kentucky has adjusted their game plan to start on the perimeter more, that's a good sign for Marquette.

As is surely no surprise to Marquette fans, when we foul our opponents a lot we tend to lose. Fouls are going to play a huge role in this game on both sides.

Summary
How does Marquette win? Marquette has established their ability to win on the defensive end. Everything derives from the defensive pressure on the perimeter. Unfortunately, our offensive capabilities are not at the same level.

The last two NCAA tournament games have been an exaggeration of that team's capabilities. In 2006 (overall rating of 28 ; 7 seed in tournament), our Steve-Novak-driven offense was better than our defense, and that team got torched defensively by Alabama. In 2007 (overall Pomeroy rating of 38 ; 8 seed in tournament), our defense was better than our offense, and without Jerel McNeal we... let's not rehash the Michigan State game again. The fear is clearly that this year's team will falter offensively.

However, unlike the last two years, Marquette has a much stronger Pomeroy rating and we are underseeded instead of overseeded. In addition, this year's team doesn't just have a good defense. We have an elite defense that can help propel us forward.

Georgetown tops Marquette in overtime

Marquette squandered an 11-point second half lead and fell to the Georgetown Hoyas 70-68 in overtime this afternoon in Milwaukee.

The Golden Eagles used trademark defensive pressure to keep Georgetown out of sync for most of the game, but Patrick Ewing Jr's clutch play in the second half and a critical mistake by Dominic James late in regulation gave the Hoyas new life in overtime.

After weathering the Hoyas' late comeback, Marquette scrambled to gain a three point lead, 63-60, with just seconds remaining in regulation. That's when Jonathan Wallace went to work. Dominic James inexplicably fouled Wallace on a three-point attempt with less than three seconds remaining. The GU senior confidently drained all three freebies, tying the game at 63-63 and forcing overtime. Earlier in the second half, James fouled Wallace on a three-point attempt as well.

Late in overtime MU had a chance to tie the game, regaining possession with nine seconds remaining. MU failed to get a shot off, as James indecisively turned the ball over to end the game.

After trailing by 11 midway through the second half, Ewing keyed the Hoyas' revival. The forward buried a pivotal three-pointer to bring the Hoyas to within 54-50 with six minutes to play, and doled out a pair of assists, one to Wallace to give the Hoyas a 56-55 with 3:35 to play, their first lead since early in the opening minutes.

Wesley Matthews paced the Golden Eagles with a season-high 22 points. Jerel McNeal had 17 points, and Dominic James 15. Lazar Hayward was outclassed by DaJuan Summers, going 0-8 from the floor with four rebounds.

Although MU forced 21 Georgetown turnovers, that advantage was negated by the Golden Eagles' poor free throw shooting (61% on 22 of 36 from the stripe).

Wallace and Hibbert led the Hoyas with 20 points each.

With the loss, MU falls to 21-7 overall and 11-6 in the Big East.

Media Updates
Box Score

Marquette takes on UW-M

MU hosts UW-Milwaukee on Friday night at the Bradley Center. UW-Milwaukee fans are gearing up for the game by hosting a game watching party at the Klotsche Center which is four miles away from the Bradley Center.

Marquette students will be in attendance at the Bradley Center. Thousands of them, clad in blue and gold, cheering on the Marquette Golden Eagles as they square off against an alleged local rival scheduled only to placate the 'masses' -- many of whom will be packing the Klotsche Center. Marvelous.

Tipoff is scheduled for 7:30pm CST. Ring out Ahoya!

GoMarquette preview and game notes

Marquette #14 in attendance for 06-07 season

Marquette averaged 15,345 fans per game last season (20 home dates, 306,893 total). MU ranked third in the Big East in average attendance per game. Syracuse was #2 in the nation at 21,516 per game and Louisville clocked in at #5 overall with 18,488 per game.

Nice work by MU fans, very nice indeed.

The full report can be found here (.pdf).

BTW, word around here is that Murffieus will contest these numbers in a thread on a message board near you.

Marquette basketball, revenue generator

Sports biz enthusiasts will enjoy this article about college hoops as a revenue (and profit) generator by John Maher of the Austin-American Statesman.

According to this report, Louisville leads the nation in generating revenue from college hoops -- more than $21M in the 2006-2006 season.

MU? A robust $10.8 million in basketball revenue. Remove the $7 million in reportd expenses and Marquette basketball turned a healthy $3.8 million profit for the 2005-2006 season.

Big money. That's a tidy profit, eh?

More like a necessity, I'd argue.......without fat hoops revenue and a strong profit margin, MU would not be able to field competitive teams in non-revenue sports. There's no detail on what MU considers to be part of its basketball revenue (ie: multimedia rights as an example), nor is there detail in the aritcle about the nature of the expenses -- so its difficult to evalutate the findings.

One way to do gather some detail is via the USA Today compensation sortable database. Tom Crean, the $1,688,487 man. Want more? Here is MU's 990 -- the "Return of Organization Exempt from Income Tax" form which lists MU's five highest paid employees (its in .pdf btw)

All of the numbers in the article are supported through forms submitted in compliance with the Federal Equity in Athletics Disclosure Act.

Selection Committee Hoses MU

What a crock. MU gets in as an 8 seed in the East Region. WTF? This is an absolute joke.

MU's 'reward' for a 24-win season (including a 10-win conference season while playing the Big East's second-toughest intra-league schedule)? ........a Thursday game in Winston-Salem against #9 seed Michigan State (who also deserved a higher seed). Mentor vs. Mentee, how cute. The winner gets UNC.

Its been said that the selection committee factored in unbalanced conference schedules in choosing Texas Tech over K-State - - but they must not have considered it with Marquette. Imagine if MU was 26-7 (12-4) because the team had beaten St. John's and Cincy instead of losing on the road to G'town and ND. MU was a victim of the unbalanced schedule.

A few cases in point:

• ND as a #6 seed? I guess conference road wins don't matter (unless you beat RU and Cincy like the Irish did -- their only road wins in Big East play and part of their 13th ranked Big East intra-league schedule. The Irish lost at SJU, btw. And don't forget the Irish played 10 teams north of 200 in the RPI. 10! MU played 5 such opponents).
• Duke as a #6 seed? 4-6 in their last 10, one and done in the ACC tourney. Get Vitale off of the committee.
• Vandy as a #6 seed in MU's region? They have fewer road/neutral wins and a lower RPI. Losing to Furman and Appalachian State must not matter. The Commodores are the most over-seeded team in the field.
  
• Boston College, I mean Betting Central, as the #7 seed in MU's region? Again, a team with a lower RPI than MU and fewer road/neutral wins.
• Indiana as a #7 seed? The Hoosiers have a worse RPI, fewer top 100 wins, twice as many road losses as wins, and were 5-5 in their last 10 (like MU). How on earth is IU a #7 seed?

Sick.

With this appearance, coach Tom Crean has taken MU to the Big Dance in four of the last six seasons including the last two in row. Congratulations. Too bad the committee felt like going Ned Beatty on MU and the Big East though.

The Big East sent six teams to the tournmaent. MU is joined by Georgetown (#2), Louisville (#6), Pitt (#3), Villanova (#9 seed), and Notre Dame (#6 seed). Everyone of these teams (sans ND) have a legitimate complaint about their seed.......the selection committee's Big Ten (Purdue a #9!) and ACC (Duke #6) bias is sickening.

Can anybody guess which league did not have an AD on the selection committee?

Inexplicably, Syracuse was left out. The 'Cuse won 10 games in the Big East and one game in their conference tourney.

Again, what a joke. Tranghese --- DO NOT LET THIS HAPPEN AGAIN.

Folks are venting, check this out.

***keep it here on Cracked Sidewalks for wall-to-wall updates on MU's tourney journey.

Marquette chicks know hoops

This is great....Ray Floriani, a freelance basketball writer who often reports for Basketball Times and on Hoopville.net, penned a quick review of the opening night of the Big East. As you'll see, Ray gives fans 'pop quizes' on their basketball knowledge. Let's just say MU passed with flying colors while others failed miserably:

Marquette cheerleaders and dance teams know their school's history. Several recent DePaul grads I spoke with had no idea who George Mikan was. When I asked sophomore Biana Pallotto who Al McGuire was, the Marquette cheerleader replied, "He was a legend. His name is on our court and he put Marquette basketball on the map." That reply was "top shelf" as the late McGuire would say.

Ray will be at MSG tonight covering the Big East semis....look for coverage on Hoopville.net.

MSG Report: MU over SJU

It was great to see MU back in MSG last night -- and even better to watch the Golden Eagles claim their first conference tournament win since 2002. The seats in section 44 rocked (even if I should not have been sitting there) A few thoughts on the game:

• This was a road game, no doubt about it. The MSG crowd badly wanted to erupt and rock the house for the Johnnies, and on a couple of occassions they nearly did. When SJU went on a 10-0 run midway through the second half to cut the MU lead to 49-47 the crowd was fairly electric, albeit modest in terms of raw numbers.
  
• MU fans represented nicely. MSG is a tough arena for teams that lack a large local alumni base....the Big East spreads fans out in small groups around the arena, so its difficult to establish a raucous atmosphere for MU and others with similar distance issues. Syracuse, UConn and SJU don't have to deal with that. MU certainly traveled better this year than last. A nice job by the alumni office and the Blue & Gold Fund teams.
  

The biggest sequences in the game were three IMHO

• Strong finish to the first half: When SJU cut MU's lead to just two late in the first half, 30-28, the house was rockin. MU finished the half on a 5-0 run, capped by a brilliant drive/dish from James to Hayward. MU led by seven at the break -- and scored the first basket of the second half.
• Fitz is tits: When SJU whittled a 12-point lead down to just two points with twelve minutes to play, Dan Fitzgerald sacked up and nailed a clutch three. The game nearly turned right there -- against MU. Huge shot.
• Matthews on the glass: With 43 seconds to play and MU up 66-62, David Cubillan missed two free throws. Wesley Matthews' rebound on the missed freebie was clutch...he was promptly fouled and made both free throws.

More thoughts on the game

• I wish MU had a player like Anthony Mason, Jr. He's long and athletic on the wing -- the kind of player MU just does not have in the program. He gave Matthews fits all night. I give TC a ton of credit for moving David Cubillan onto Mason midway through the second half (after Mason cut the MU lead to just two). Cuby helped take Mason out of rhythm despite the height disadvantage. Great move by Crean.
  
• Mike Kinsella. What a fantastic way for a senior to close his career -- he was a spark for MU, no question about it. Hopefully Mike gets the chance to channel Novak for a few more weeks.
  
• The refs. Sitting with Chicos Bail Bonds, we both admitted that MU got just about every call from the zebras last night. Several gifts. Who cares, MU deserved them.
• Eugene Lawrence is an incredible on-the-ball defender. MU ran several clear-outs for DJ, but he was unable to get by Lawrence off the dribble. 'Gino' is an under-rated player.
• Maurice Acker: No, he was not at the game last night but they could have used him. MU only has two players on the roster who can consistently dribble penetrate. With Jerel out, defenses can more easily keep James out of the lane which limits MU's offense substantially.
• Key defensive stops: MU outscoured SJU 11-7 during the last three minutes of the game. There was a key stretch from the 2:58 mark to the 0:54 mark in the game -- MU held St John's scoreless during those critical two+ minutes...a stretch where MU only managed one point. IMHO that's a good sign for this team -- even when the offense is sluggish, they brought their 'A' game on the defensive end and it paid off.
• MU's glossy shoes look good.
  
• DePaul -- I mean they can't suck enough. If DPU traveled a dozen fans I'd be surprised....it was downright embarrassing for them. The university only sent five members of the dance team and an abriged collection of cheerleaders. Clearly they expected to be one and done.
  
• Lazar Hayward's 'J' looks much better now than it did earlier in the season. Inside, he's always around the ball. Nice player.
• Dwight Burke is a huge 'effort player'. He was all over the place last night.
• Fitz Fitz Fitz Fitz Fitz. Is it just me or does he hit clutch threes with regularlity? His fan club rocks btw.
  
• It was great to see Chicos, Smitty, Smitty and hordes of other MU alums last night.

more to come......

Marquette-Pittsburgh: the best new rivalry in the expanded Big East

.....so says this blogger.

Sure the expanded Big East is not yet two full seasons old, but the first three tilts between MU and Pitt have been memorable battles:

1. Aaron Gray's 20 rebound effort in Pitt's late victory at the Pete last season following the Graves/James collision;
2. Aaron Gray morphing into Erin Gray at the Bradley Center late last season to help seal a victory for MU;
3. James making two free throws with 0.9 left in OT to lead MU to a win on the road this season. And don't forget about the Oakland Zoo's dislike for DJ's wink and posturing to the crowd after Sunday's game -- or Aaron Gray's elbow to David Cubillan's head that went unnoticed by the refs earlier in the afternoon;
4. Oh, and how about MU's win over the Panthers in the Sweet 16 round of the 2003 NCAA tournament.

While these teams don't have a long history, each matchup has been intense, passionate, hard-fought and memorable. I challenge you to find another 'new' Big East pairing that's developed the fever pitch we're already accustomed to seeing with the Panthers and Golden Eagles.

Now, I might be in the minority here. The guys at PittBlather don't think its a rivalry just yet, and they make a good case for it.

Jeff Greer at the Pitt News calls it a rivalry.

Marquette fans feel the rivalry emerging too. Check out this thread on MUScoop. And hey, the Pitt fans think its a rivalry .... at least the ones on their message boards. How about this thread on Tom Crean? Here's my favorite post in the thread:

As a Cincinnati fan I have seen plenty of Crean. He is a good coach who gets the most out of his players and puts up a fight in every game even when he has less talent on the floor. He does come off to other team's fans as a sh!thead though. However I have always had the feeling that if other team's fans hate my coach, he is doing a good job.

The Oakland Zoo blog -- check this out!

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Big East's best new rivalry.

Marquette travels to Pittsburgh

The nationally-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers host the Marquette Golden Eagles on Sunday afternoon at The Pete. CBS will broadcast today's game nationally beginning at 2pm CST.

Marquette rolls into town looking for its fourth-stratight victory despite being in the midst of arguably it toughest stretch of the season. The Golden Eagles, 16-4 overall and 3-2 in the Big East, have won three straight after starting the conference season with consecutive losses. Sunday's game is MU's third road game its last four outings. Pittsburgh enters the contest with a record of 17-2 overall and 5-0 in the Big East.

Here's the AP preview.

Here is the GoMarquette preview.

Todd Rosiak previews the game.

Former MU assistant paying big dividends for Pitt

I had the opportunity to work with Mike Rice for several years when he was an assistant at Marquette under former coach Mike Deane. Rice was a terrific guy, fun to talk to and really knew his basketball. He played at Fordham and his father had been the Duquense coach for many years (then the Portland Trailblazers color analyst where I believe he still resides today). He was the one guy on the staff that matched my golfing abilities at the time (I suspect now he has become even better while my game is in the tank).

I lost track of Rice's whereabouts a few years ago until I noticed he surfaced at St. Joe's. Now he's in his first season at Pitt and just landed one of the top players in the country from St. Anthony's in New Jersey.

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review does a nice write-up on "Rice Cakes" in today's edition.

Golden Eagles thump the Cardinals

The home team was roadkill tonight.

The Marquette Golden Eagles raced to a 74-65 victory tonight over the Louisville Cardinals in Freedom Hall. The ballyhooed troika of James, Matthews and McNeal scored 39 of the team's 41 second-half points as MU earned its second consecutive conference road win. With the victory, Marquette improved to 16-4 overall and 3-2 in the Big East.

The Golden Eagles ended the first half with a 33-30 lead and emerged from the locker room to build up a 15-point advantage. Louisville's pressure defense quickly whittled the lead back down to seven and then to five points later in the half, but the Triple Threat dropped the hammer from that point on.

Marquette's second half surge was keyed by Dominic James, who scored 16 of his team-high 18 points after the break. The sophomore All-American hit three key 3-point baskets midway through the second half as the Cardinals rallied from the 15 point deficit. With the Golden Eagles nursing a precarious 51-46 lead at the 11-minute mark, James nailed the first of his three key 'threes'. The shot ignited a 13-4 run that pushed the MU lead back to 14 points with roughly eight minutes to play. James accounted for 11 of MU's 13 points during that stretch.

Wesley Matthews scored 17 points and pulled down five rebounds, while Jerel McNeal had 15 points and 7 assists.

The Golden Eagles' offense, anemic earlier this month, was spectacular tonight. Marquette shot an impressive 50% from the field and 82% from the free throw line (14-17). Rather than settling for forced jump shots and lazy three-pointers, MU was crisp with the ball all evening racking up 13 assists while turning the ball over just 13 times. Marquette's guards were routinely able to find the seam in the Louisville zone defense and then make the extra pass to an open shooter.

Ousmane Barro was the biggest beneficary of the effective offensive sets in the first half as he came up with a dozen points thanks to a number of fine looks from his backcourt mates. Barro finished with 14 points and 11 rebounds, his second double-double in the last three games -- each on the road. With Barro leading the way, MU out-rebounded the Cardinals 32-28.

Big East Hoops analyzes MU's victory here.

Here is the AP recap.

Here is the box score.

MUScoop has the game notes here.

MUScoop has a recap of the post game interviews here.

Scout.com's recap is here.

The Louisville Courier-Journal chimes in here.

Todd Rosiak on the now surging Golden Eagles.