Recapturing Momentum (plus numbers)

What do we have here (again)?

As NYWarrior eloquently pointed out in , "What do we have here?", it's true that Marquette is susceptible to bad matchups. His basic conclusion is that Marquette definitely has a ceiling, and that we are likely to face a first round loss unless the matchup is good. NYWarrior is absolutely right. After all, we are a team that is only 3-7 against top 50 teams. When it matters, we don't beat the good teams. There is legitimate concern that this team will not get it done in the NCAA.

What is causing even more consternation is that this is the most likely window for the team. With the loss of Barro, Fitz, and probably James, we'll lose our most experienced post player and one of the most important members of the team. The post play will be Burke and sophomores/freshmen, and our point guard options will be Acker/Cubillan and freshmen. Despite the return of Matthews/McNeal/Hayward, I fully expect some sort of downslide next year. Couple that with the mantra oft-repeated by Crean-haters of "zero wins without Wade", and the fear is that the team's best opportunity just isn't good enough and the trend of zero wins post-Wade will continue. No true Marquette fan wants that.

Meeting Expectations

I want just one win this year in the NCAA tournament. That is "meeting expectations". It's kind of a bitter pill, honestly, because I had hoped, when the Amigos were freshmen, of a potential Elite Eight / Final-Four type run this year. Now, Sweet Sixteen or beyond is "exceeds expectations". This team has potential and could be special, but let's start with just one win.

Recapturing the Momentum

Heading into the Georgetown game, NYWarrior and I agreed on the following. Excluding Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette needed to win two of the next three games for us to feel confident about the team. This meant beating either Georgetown or Syracuse and winning the first game in the Big East Tournament. The logic behind this statement is that failure to win two out of three would portend that the team was likely to suffer yet another late season fade and NCAA first round flameout.

The opportunity is still there for this team. It's just that the margin of error has been eliminated. Thankfully, the team has the ability to shake out the cobwebs against Florida Gulf Coast. Then, it's time for Marquette to go and step on the dreams of a team just fighting to make the NCAA tournament. Given the right matchups in the BET, MU could even make the semis and win a few games. But it all starts with winning the next two (really three) games and recapturing that momentum heading into the NCAA tournament.

Give Us a Reason to Believe

Here's the deal with the team. We're searching, hoping, and praying for a reason to believe in this team. On Saturday, in front of 19K rabid fans and a national audience, we screamed and we believed and got collectively kicked in the teeth. The team and the fans are heartbroken. Marquette was close to breaking through with a statement win but just fell short.

It's gut check time in Marquette-land.

Give us a reason to maintain that hope. Come out strong against Florida Gulf Coast. Win against Syracuse and we'll believe. The refrain of "We Are Marquette" will ring out loud and clear in Madison Square Garden and wherever we play in the NCAA tournament.

We'll believe that on the first day of the NCAA tournament, MU will meet expectations.

Onto the numbers (with no individual ratings today due to length)

Four Factors Review


Looking at the Four Factors shows something fairly interesting. Each team was able to utilize their strengths. Yet again, Marquette was able to keep their turnovers down and force their opponent into more turnovers than normal. However, Georgetown was able to win the effective Field Goal % battle, which ultimately made the difference. Remember that Georgetown is number one in the country at effective Field Goal defense and number eight in the country at effective Field Goal offense. Although Marquette won the Offensive Rebounding battle and Georgetown won the Free Throw Rate battle, the two percentages were close enough such that the result was a wash.

Of course, there was also another factor at play in the game...

The Fifth Factor

Just kidding, folks. After all, it's not like we've ever complained about officials, ever. Despite what seemed like lots of calls going in Georgetown's favor, Marquette had the opportunity to win and did not. A few more free throws and a non-foul by James and this is all moot.

Time to move on to Florida Gulf Coast and Senior Night. Let's recapture that momentum.

Georgetown tops Marquette in overtime

Marquette squandered an 11-point second half lead and fell to the Georgetown Hoyas 70-68 in overtime this afternoon in Milwaukee.

The Golden Eagles used trademark defensive pressure to keep Georgetown out of sync for most of the game, but Patrick Ewing Jr's clutch play in the second half and a critical mistake by Dominic James late in regulation gave the Hoyas new life in overtime.

After weathering the Hoyas' late comeback, Marquette scrambled to gain a three point lead, 63-60, with just seconds remaining in regulation. That's when Jonathan Wallace went to work. Dominic James inexplicably fouled Wallace on a three-point attempt with less than three seconds remaining. The GU senior confidently drained all three freebies, tying the game at 63-63 and forcing overtime. Earlier in the second half, James fouled Wallace on a three-point attempt as well.

Late in overtime MU had a chance to tie the game, regaining possession with nine seconds remaining. MU failed to get a shot off, as James indecisively turned the ball over to end the game.

After trailing by 11 midway through the second half, Ewing keyed the Hoyas' revival. The forward buried a pivotal three-pointer to bring the Hoyas to within 54-50 with six minutes to play, and doled out a pair of assists, one to Wallace to give the Hoyas a 56-55 with 3:35 to play, their first lead since early in the opening minutes.

Wesley Matthews paced the Golden Eagles with a season-high 22 points. Jerel McNeal had 17 points, and Dominic James 15. Lazar Hayward was outclassed by DaJuan Summers, going 0-8 from the floor with four rebounds.

Although MU forced 21 Georgetown turnovers, that advantage was negated by the Golden Eagles' poor free throw shooting (61% on 22 of 36 from the stripe).

Wallace and Hibbert led the Hoyas with 20 points each.

With the loss, MU falls to 21-7 overall and 11-6 in the Big East.

Media Updates
Box Score

Marquette Battles Georgetown on National TV

The schedule makers couldn't have done a better job of pitting Marquette against Georgetown this Saturday afternoon at the Bradley Center. The Hoyas, tied with Louisville for first place in the Big East, have won three in a row. Marquette, winners of five straight, are surging and looking to secure favorable seeding in both the Big East tournament and the NCAA tournament. This game is huge for Marquette, and Georgetown needs the win to stay in the running for the Big East championship.

Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm CST. The game will be broadcast on CBS. Here's hoping Clark Kellogg comments on Marquette's "spurtability" early and often during the broadcast. To win this game, MU must force turnovers and dictate a quicker pace to create (hopefully) easier opportunities against the stingy Hoya defense.

Saturday is also National Marquette Day. If you are unable to watch the game live, then get out there with alums in your city and watch it in a group setting. We Are Marquette!

Media Updates - tons of links!
CBS Sportsline video preview
Rivals.com with an outstanding preview
Washington Times on the Hoyas' quest for the top seed in the BET
Hoya Hoops with a numbers preview
Scout.com preview
Marquette.com preview and game notes
Hoya Saxa with a preview
College Hoops Net with a great preview
Seth Davis picks us to win
ESPN's Weekend Watch Highlights Dominic James
Rosiak's blog has a great preview with lots of strategy comments by Crean

Stats Breakdown
Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Georgetown. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• #7 - Rating for the Hoyas effective Field Goal (eFG%) offense
• Georgetown is number seven amongst Division 1 programs for their effective Field Goal Percentage
• This is due to hitting a high percentage (#5) overall of two-point field goals - almost 56%
  
• #1 - top rating for effective Field Goal Defense
• That's right. Georgetown is the number one team in the country at effective Field Goal defense - limiting opponents to 41.7%
• Inside the arc, opponents get 40.1% field goal percentage, which is #3 in the country
  
• Georgetown is also good at defending on the three point line (29.8%), which is #10 in the country
• 320 - The national rank for Georgetown's pace
• The Hoyas only average 62 possessions / game, which is one of the slowest paces in the country
  
• Georgetown is a classic example of the value for tempo free (possession-based) stats
  
• 13.7% - Block rate for Georgetown
  
• This is good enough to be Top 10% in the country (#27 overall), or a block about once every seven shots
  
• 20.2% - Turnover Rating that Georgetown averages on offense
  
• TO Rate plays a large role in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency for Georgetown
• Signs of hope! Marquette wins the turnover battle consistently! and does a lot better when our opponents are worse than average (20%)
  
• Georgetown only forces a 19.2% Turnover Rate for Defense, so expect Marquette to protect the ball fairly well
  

Basically, Georgetown is exceptional at two things... making and preventing two-point baskets. Even more troubling, there are a lot of the similarities between the areas of expertise for UConn, Louisville, and Georgetown. All three teams do well at effective Field Goal defense, two-point field goal defense, and blocking shots. This is a real concern for Marquette, and we expect that everyone should just prepare themselves to watch our half-court offense look very ugly.

However, there are some definite opportunities. Marquette has been outstanding at forcing turnovers lately, and our ball-pressure could really challenge Georgetown's guards. If we're able to rattle the Hoyas into more turnovers than they want and make this into a transition game, then the Bradley Center crowd will start rocking.

Bonus Stats Coverage

In addition, Georgetown has had some rough patches lately that suggest potential weakness. Certainly, the fact that they were beaten soundly by Louisville, and needed a controversial call in order to defeat Villanova, indicates to the casual observer that Georgetown may not be playing particularly well.

It is certainly true that Georgetown has not been playing as well recently as they represent for the entire season. Don't get too confident, however. The Hoyas appear to be getting back on track both offensively and defensively with trends that are headed in the desired directions (at least for Georgetown).

The good news is that Marquette has been playing great basketball as of late.

Marquette is streaking, and unlike the Hoyas, we are playing better right now that we have been for the entire season. Note that Marquette's efficiency for the year is completely comparable to Georgetown's. In front of a rabid home crowd and a national audience, it could be a very enjoyable Saturday afternoon.

*post is a joint contribution from NYWarrior and Henry Sugar

Jesuit Smackdown

UPDATED
The Big East's two hottest teams square off on Saturday afternoon in our nation's capital when 11th ranked Marquette (21-4, 8-2) slips into town to take on the #22 ranked Georgetown Hoyas (17-5, 7-2). In order to extend its conference-best eight game winning streak Marquette will have to slow down the surging Hoyas, winners of six in a row.

The game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN. Tipoff is scheduled for 11am CST.

As if the Hoyas need extra incentive (they don't), Georgetown will celebrate 100 years of basketball on Saturday. Many past Hoya greats are expected to return to campus for the celebration.

Georgetown has steamrolled its last six opponents by an average of 15 points per game. As hot as the Hoyas are, they've not exactly annihilated murderer's row in the past few weeks (@Rutgers, @Seton Hall, DePaul, Cincy, St Johns, @Louisville) but with Roy Hibbert coming up with two double-doubles in his last three games its clear that JTIII has his troops playing better and better.

The Hoyas are paced by their front line, the best group in the Big East -- Hibbert, Jeff Green, Vernon Macklin and DaJuan Summers. The four big men combine to average 38 points per game for JTIII, led by Hibbert and Green at more than a dozen apiece. With their efficient frontline and the modified Princeton-style offense, Georgetown leads the Big East in field goal percentage -- and is the only team in the league hitting more than 50% of its shots (GU shoots 53% from the field).

In the backcourt, Jonathan Wallace is enjoying a fine season averaging better than 11ppg and connecting on 48% of his three-point attempts.

Marquette will look to its Big East-best backcourt to balance the Hoyas' baseline presence. MU's Triple Threat is averaging a combined 43ppg this season, and consistently deliver the defensive intensity Tom Crean's squad needs to dictate the style of play.....and style of play will be the key on Saturday.

Who will blink first, TC or JTIII?

Last year, MU's speed, intense perimeter defense, and crisp offense negated the Hoyas' height advantage in the Golden Eagles' victory at the Bradley Center. Hibbert played well, but Bowman and Green combined for just nine points. In the rematch at MSG during the Big East Tourney, the Hoya's defense held MU to just 39% shooting. Led by Jeff Green and now-departed point guard Ashanti Cook, who each scored 16 points, GU owned the glass (MU out-rebounded the Hoyas in the first meeting) and hit clutch free throws late to seal the deal.

With a smaller, quicker team, Crean has found ways to turn his Marquette's speed into a distinct advantage against bigger, lumbering teams. In the Golden Eagles' inaugural Big East opener last season, Steve Novak turned in the greatest individual performance in conference history with 41 points and 17 rebounds. That night, quickness and effective ball movement on offense negated the substantial height advantage from UConn (read: Boone, Adrien, Armstrong and Gay) as the Golden Eagles ran away with the victory. The same formula worked earlier this season in Marquette's win at Pittsburgh, where Aaron Gray was marginalized as the game wore on. Jamie Dixon was forced to 'go small' in order to put a more effective defensive team on the floor.

With Green, Summers, Hibbert and Macklin rotating on the baseline, at least one of them will have to guard Fitzgerald or Wesley Matthews in order for JTIII to keep three of them on the floor at the same time. In their last game against Louisville, which moved to a three (if not four) guard lineup, coach Thompson played Summers, Hibbert and Green each in excess of 30 minutes while Macklin only made it off the bench for two minutes of action. Perhaps MU can expect a similar rotation of Hoya big men on Saturday.

Still, if Ousmane Barro can hold his own down low and MU's guards can rebound effectively, the Golden Eagles could dictate the style of play yet again. A lineup of James, McNeal, Matthews, Fitzgerald and Barro would keep the floor spread and force JTIII to make some tougher personel choices -- if the Golden Eagles can create a more frenetic style of play at the expense of the Hoyas' young backcourt.

How Georgetown matches up with the 6'9" Fitzgerald will be key. The junior is shooting 43% from three-point range this season, and has hit a number of clutch shots from that distance in conference play.

MEDIA UPDATES

• Here's the MUScoop information header for Saturday's game.
  
• Eric Silver previews the game for MarquetteHoops.
• HoyaSaxa's pre-game report.
  
• The Associated Press preview is on the wire -- check it out.
• The GU Hoya on the Hoyas' pursuit of a marquee victory on Saturday.
• CNNSI's Luke Winn has MU up to #7 in his power poll -- and gives a shout-out to Todd Rosiak's new blog.
• Sportsline matches up MU and GU in their Head to Head analysis.
• Todd Rosiak blogs on MU's arrival in DC -- Crean is still sick with the flu.