MUTV Sports recaps tough loss at Georgetown

Another stellar post-game report from the crew at MUTV Sports.

Jumpin Jesuit Showdown

In search of its first signature road win of the season, the road-weary Warriors will lace'em up against the Georgetown Hoyas on Sunday afternoon.

Marquette (15-9, 6-5 BIG EAST) is 1-1 on the current road swing, losing late at Villanova and stealing a win against USF earlier this week. With just seven conference games remaining, Marquette has little margin for error in its pursuit of another NCAA tournament bid. However, stealing a win at #11 Georgetown (19-5, 8-4 BIG EAST) will be a tall order. Since opening the BIG EAST schedule at 1-4, the Hoyas are on a hot streak. Georgetown has won seven consecutive games, four of which have come away from home. The signature win during this run was a 64-56 win at Syracuse on Wednesday, as the Hoyas used a 15-3 run down the stretch to pull away for the victory.

Georgetown is led by Naismith Award finalist Austin Freeman, who averages
18.5 points per game and connects on 53% of his field goals overall (45% from three-point territory). Guard Chris Wright averages a dozen points per game to go with five assists, while backcourt running mate Jason Clark is good for a dozen per game as well. For the first time in ages, Georgetown isn't led by a premier big man, and yet they continue to be very good.

How do they do it? According to their Pomeroy stats, Georgetown is great offensively. However, they are only good in one area offensively (eFG%), but even that has them as the #3 team at effective field goal percentage. The Hoyas are #2 inside the arc and #34 at shooting from three. Match that up against Marquette's crappy eFG% defense, and you have a recipe for Georgetown to score early and score often.

Defensively, GU is not as strong and again they are only good in one area. Of course it's the most important area (eFG% again). In particular, the Hoyas are good at preventing opponents from scoring inside the arc. They can give up shots from outside the arc. Finally, GU plays a slow-down tempo (#238 overall), which can be kryptonite for MU's defense. Add it all up and you have quite a few strengths for Georgetown going against Marquette weaknesses. Oh... they're at home.

But let me tell you something. Georgetown hates this matchup. They HATE it. First, the Hoyas are fairly inconsistent defensively. They can give up 1.14 ppp to Providence and hold Syracuse to 0.96. While GU is going to get points, Marquette is probably going to get points too. Second, while Georgetown is good at eFG% on both sides of the ball, they are either not good or downright bad everywhere else. The Hoyas are sloppy with the ball, never force turnovers, and they're mediocre at defensive rebounding. Marquette has a very good chance to match GU at eFG% and take advantage of turnover margin and offensive rebounding. Finally, just note that Hoya Prospectus recently placed Georgetown as the 9th best team in the league. MU was #3. I'm not saying Georgetown is a pretender... well, maybe I am.

Does any of this mean Marquette is going to win? No, but like always, MU has more than a puncher's chance. If only they would press more to increase the pace of the game. We're not ones to to be homers on game predictions, but we think the Warriors finally lock down that elusive quality road win.

Tipoff for the game is scheduled for 12pm Marquette Standard Time. The game will be broadcast on ESPN and called by Mike Patrick and Len Elmore. Bah.

Finally, according to the Official MU Game Notes the game is part of the Jesuit Basketball Spotlight. "The Jesuit Basketball Spotlight project is a nationwide effort to identify basketball games between Jesuit schools and, through those games, bring greater positive awareness to Jesuit education and mission. This project was developed by the Association of Jesuit Colleges and Universities (AJCU) in response to member institutions wanting to spread the word of Jesuit higher education through the more than 90 basketball games in which Jesuit institutions play each other." Go Jesuits!

*joint post by Tim and Rob

Warriors look to Ring Out Ahoya on the Hoyas

UPDATED - NOTE NEW ALUMNI PRE-GAME INFO BELOW

Buzz Williams was all smiles after yesterday's triumph over the Villanova Wildcats. With the win his Warriors earned the right to play Friday night basketball at MSG in the Big East Tournament.

Raise your hand if you saw this coming back in October.

.....(crickets)......

The Warriors' remarkable season (22-10, 11-7) continues tonight at the World's Most Famous Arena when they hit the court to take on the Georgetown Hoyas (22-9, 10-8). Tonight's Jesuit Jam is a revenge game for the Washington, D.C-based disciples of St. Ignatius Loyola, who fell to Father Jacques Marquette's crew 62-59 in January.

Tipoff is scheduled for 6pm Marquette Standard Time on ESPN.

Media Roundup

• Hoya Hoops previews the action.
• Luke Winn talks up Buzz.
  
• ESPN's Dana O'Neill on MU living in the moment.
• Anonymous Eagle does a fine preview of tonight's game.
  
• The Hoyas advanced to tonight's semifinal after juicing the Orange yesterday, 91-84.
• MSNBC discusses how Marquette's experience is carrying the team into March.
• New Jersey Newsroom recaps yesterday at MSG calling Lazar Hayward "the forgotten Big East star"
• I never thought I'd say it but Bloomberg News talks up tonight's Jesuit battle.
• The AP notes that three of the top four teams in the Big East fell yesterday.
• Syracuse loses and all of a sudden the Big East Tournament format needs to be changed? East coast bias in action folks.
• Our own John Pudner recapped yesterday's win.
  

A reminder to NYC-area Marquette fans --the university is hosting pre and post-game parties at Stout NYC, 133 W 33rd St, downstairs in Stout Cellar.

Fire up Marquette!

Marquette closes out Georgetown

Marquette claimed its first BIG EAST win of the season tonight with a 62-59 triumph over the 12th ranked Georgetown Hoyas. Shedding the weight of consecutive soul crushing defeats, the gritty Warriors closed out the Hoyas late by nailing clutch free throws and stringing together a series of defensive stops in the game's waning moments to secure the victory. The Hoyas scored just two points in the final two minutes of the game.

David Cubillan, the greatest player in Marquette history tonight, led the Warriors with 18 points on six three-pointers. Marquette was outscored 32-6 in the paint but countered with a dazzling night of long-range shooting, nailing a dozen three-pointers (12-26, 46%). In fact the Warriors made more three-pointers, 12, than two-pointers tonight, 9.

Lazar Hayward finished with another double-double, 12 points and 11 boards. Dwight Buycks finished with 10 while Jimmy Butler chipped in with 9 points.

With the victory Marquette improves to 10-5 on the season and 1-2 in BIG EAST play.

Media Updates

• ESPN Box Score.
• Rosiak with a particularly strong recap of the win.
• Rosiak blogs on the win.
• The Casual Hoya jumps in on the action.
• The Washington Post talks up Marquette's first BIG EAST victory of the season.
• The stellar GoMarquette recap is full of good stuff including podcasts from Buzz, Cubillan, JT3 and Austin Freeman.
• The Chicago Tribune jumps in with a recap as well -- good morning Jerry Wainwright.

Reeeling Warriors look to end skid against Hoyas

I had every intention of doing an eloquent preview of tonight's game between the Warriors and the Hoyas ..... then I read John Pudner's stellar Q/A over at the Casual Hoya and thought better of it.

Seriously, read all about it here. Pudner rocks.

MU v GU tips off tonight at 7pm Marquette Standard Time at the Bradley Center.

• Here are the Marquette Game Notes.
• Rosiak on the improving Dwight Buycks.
• The Sportsline preview.
• GU guard Chris Wright is in the midst of a monster stretch. Acker beware.
• The Washington Post on MU's bad breaks early in BIG EAST play.

One thing to watch for tonight -- celebrate if David Cubillan snares his first rebound in BIG EAST play. The senior has yet to corral a board in 56 minutes of game action, surely some sort of record. Also, Cubillan's next assist will be his second in BIG EAST play this season. Meanwhile, the youthful but more talented Erik Williams continues to sit based on his performances in practice.

Warriors Start Final Five with W @Georgetown

After the game, Buzz Williams said "We went 11-2 in the first 13 games of the Big East. Every week, 25% of the questions people ask me is 'yeah, but what are you going to do those last 5 games?'"

Williams' Warriors answered that question: Start off with a win. On the road. When no one thought they could sweep Georgetown.

Marquette started the brutal 5 game stretch today by beating the Hoyas 78-72 on the road. Senior leadership proved too much for the Hoyas, with Wes Matthews pouring in 23 and Jerel McNeal following closely with 22 and 7 assists.

Lazar had an amazing double-double, 11 rebounds, 17 points and Jimmy Butler snagged 6 crucial rebounds, plus 8 points. All of them could have been considered for MVP of the game, with their contributions.

The game was a see-saw battle through the first 32 minutes. The final 8, Marquette slowly outlasted Georgetown, playing tight defense, nurturing a 2 point lead into a 4 point lead, into a 6 point lead, outscoring GTown 17-10 over the final stretch, not counting an uncontested 3 as time expired and the game decided.

Georgetown sinks to 5-9 in the Big East, their NCAA chances slipping away, despite their schedule, which is the 3rd toughest in the country. One could see them winning the NIT with their talent, unless they go on a serious run in the BET.

Marquette is now 12-2 in Big East play, with 4 games to play. They will fly home tonight, if the Milwaukee airport stays open after 8" of snow and will take on #1 Connecticut on Wednesday at the sold out Bradley Center.

Short AP Recap
ESPN Box
AP Photos

Marquette Travels to Georgetown for Mirror Game

The pursuit of Marquette's (slim chances) of a first-ever BIG EAST title continues on Saturday afternoon when the Golden Eagles (22-4, 11-2) travel to Washington, D.C. to take on the Georgetown Hoyas (14-10, 5-8). Much has been made of The Gauntlet that MU faces during the final two weeks of the regular season, and while the Hoyas are the only one of the final five opponents not ranked, John Thompson's squad is playing better of late.

After enduring back-to-back overtime losses at the hands of Syracuse and Cincinnati, the hard-luck Hoyas embarrassed USF in Tampa earlier in the week, 65-40. With a bounce-back win in hand, the Hoyas will surely ride a wave of emotion on Saturday as they'll celebrate the 25th anniversary of its national title by welcoming back the members of that dominant squad.

In the teams' first meeting of the season, MU ran away with a convincing 92-84 victory. Marquette was able to overcome a gallant effort from the Hoyas' DaJuan Summers (22 points, 7 rebounds) thanks to a Herculean performance by Jerel McNeal and a huge disparity in free throws (Marquette made 30 freebies while Georgetown attempted just 8).

Life on the road figures to be much tougher for Marquette, though the Hoyas have lost three BIG EAST conference games at home so far this year. DaJuan Summers leads the Georgetown in scoring at 14 points per game, while freshman big man Greg Monroe adds 13 points and 7 rebounds. Sophomore point guard Chris Wright also scores 13 per game and is averaging 21 points in the last two outings.

Game time is 1 pm CT on ESPN. This is Marquette's ninth national TV broadcast of the season. By the way, the three games after this are all national broadcasts too.

Strengths and Weaknesses
Not a lot has changed since our first preview of the Georgetown game, although the Hoyas are shooting better from behind the arc. Check out out Pomeroy's scouting report for the most up-to-date info. What has changed, however, are the statistics recommendations.

Specific Statistics Recommendations (In order of importance)
1. Stop Georgetown from making shots (eFG% of 55% or less) - this is 24 FGM (including six threes), which is right at their average
2. Protect the ball (turnover rate of 15% or less), which translates to ten turnovers, or two less than average
3. Get offensive rebounds (OR% of 22% or higher), which is 8 offensive rebounds (three less than season average)
4. Prevent offensive rebounds (GU OR% of 29% or less)... this is one less offensive rebound than their average
5. Force turnovers (GU turnover rate of 21% or higher), which is right at their season average
6. Make shots (eFG% of 55.7% or higher)

Model conclusion (Bottom line)
Pomeroy thinks we're going to lose (28% chance of victory). However, my predictions give us a 63% chance of victory and three point margin. Let's see who's right this time, because this is the most winnable road game Marquette has left on the schedule. The model predicts that Marquette will have an advantage on turnovers and field goals, but lose on offensive rebounds and free throw rate. The game is predicted to be an offensive game, with Marquette around season average, but defense worse than average.

Media Updates

• Here is Rosiak's blog preview
• The official GoMarquette.com preview, including their game notes
• Don't forget to check out this game's podcasts, including Buzz Williams, Wesley Matthews, and Dwight Burke

joint post from Rob and Tim

Georgetown learns: You can't hang with MU for 40 minutes

This just in: Jerel McNeal is pretty good.
This just in: Wes Matthews is pretty good.
This just in: Dominic James is pretty good.
This just in: Lazar Hayward is pretty good.


Marquette stayed perfect in the Big East with a 94-82 beat down of #25 Georgetown that just wasn't that close. While Georgetown had a 10 point lead after the first 7 minutes, MU stormed back to tie it with 6 to go in the first half. The remainder of the 1st half was a gutty battle between the two teams, hammering on each other with abandon, and few whistles.

The game continued like that until the 2nd half, when MU started pulling away, and with 10 minutes left, had built a 10 point cushion, then +16 with 5 to go. Georgetown was playing so slowly, the game was over at that point, as it was just impossible for them to win with how much time they took per possession.

It's hard to describe Jerel McNeal's game. The word "nuclear" might come close. A double-double the hard way. 26 points, 11 assists. Oh, and throw in 5 steals and 6 rebounds.

It was a good game for Jerel to "go nuclear" as scouts from the Clippers, Timberwolves, 76ers, Hawks, Bulls and Bucks were in attendance.

Wes and Lazar "only" chipped in 23 each. Lazar notched his 1,000 point as a Warrior.

That's what makes Marquette so hard to beat. They've got four guys on the court who can score 20, 25 points. You just can't stop that much talent over 40 minutes.

Marquette won despite letting Georgetown hit 56% of their shots .. to MU's 51%. How'd we win? Free throws. MU made 30 of 38, with GTown getting a paltry 8 points by FT.

Something should be said about the crowd at the Bradley Center. The house was "filled to the corners," raucous, and packed with 19,041 .. just some 40 shy of the record set last year (again, versus Georgetown.) The crowd "went to 11."

Marquette improves to 8-0 in the Big East, next up are games versus hapless DePaul, and nearly-as-hapless South Florida, who between them are 2-14 in conference play.

One item that will be talked about by watercoolers everywhere is an incident that occurred during the post-game radio interview between Coach Williams and Marquette color-man and former player, Jimmy McIlvaine. (Transcript here.)

Mac asked what the coach was doing to keep the team focused, with Marquette's top-10 ranking. In the next 90 seconds, which could only be termed "surreal," Coach Williams savaged Mac for asking the question, and questioned his loyalty to Marquette. -- Parenthetically, it's a shame this odd event will overshadow Marquette's great victory this afternoon, in many circles.

In Rosiak's report, Mac says: "I think it was just a misunderstanding .. I've already forgotten about it."

• Official Box Score
• AP Recap
• Coach Buzz post-game MP3 (8:10 he speaks about the post-game w/JMac)
  
• Matthews post-game MP3
• McNeal post-game MP3
• JS Online
• Rosiak Blog

Marquette faces off against Georgetown

Yet again, Marquette takes on a desperate opponent that needs a win. Just like Notre Dame, Georgetown (12-7, 3-5) needs to win a game badly. The Hoyas have lost four in a row, and six of their last eight, including a 65-57 loss at Cincinnati. However, a team that managed to take on a desperate ND team and win on the road should have the mental toughness to deliver another knockout blow.

Compounding matters for the Hoyas is that leading scorer DaJuan Summers is day-to day. Buzz fully expects him to play. In addition, Georgetown will still have Greg Monroe, the superlative 6'11 frosh, as well as a host of other talented (but young) players.

With the string of losses, poor three point shooting, and bad defensive rebounding, this is clearly not the same team that delivered a crushing home loss last year. The Hoyas are young and dealing with growing pains. I hope that Marquette goes out and buries them, because I still haven't forgotten last year's loss. The home crowd tomorrow needs to be out for blood. Wear gold. Get yourself "extra ready" for the game however you usually do. Whatever else, cheer as loud as you can.

Game time is 1:00 Milwaukee time. Check here to see if you get local TV coverage.

Opponent Strengths and Weaknesses
As usual, most of this information comes from the Pomeroy scouting report and game plan

Strengths
1. Winning the free throw battle – Georgetown is #6 in the country at getting to the FT line (FTA / FGA = 48.5%). They are #27 in the country at preventing their opponent from getting to the FT line (FTA / FGA = 27.8%)
2. Offensive Field Goal percentage – Georgetown is #47 in the country at effective FG% (52.8%). They make 55.3% of their two-point baskets (#11 in the country)
3. Defensive Field Goal percentage – Georgetown is #24 in the country at defensive eFG% (44.1%). This includes being #15 at preventing threes (30.3%) and #39 at preventing twos (43.5%)

Weaknesses
1. Defensive Rebounding – Georgetown is #318 in the country at defensive rebounding. Opponents get an OR% of 38.1% against them
2. Making three-pointers – Georgetown only makes 32.3% of their threes (#231 in the country). This is notable because 36.4% of their FGA’s are threes (#84 in the country)

Specific Statistics Recommendations (In order of importance)
1. Make shots (eFG% of 52% or higher), which is slightly lower than average
2. Stop Georgetown from making shots (eFG% of 51% or less)
3. Force turnovers (TO Rate of 24% or higher). This translates to sixteen turnovers for GU, which is two more than their average
4. Don’t turn the ball over (TO Rate of 18% or lower), or right around the season average of 12 turnovers
5. Prevent offensive rebounds (OR% of 31% or lower), by keeping GU to about their average of 11 OR's

Bottom Line
Pomeroy predicts a 60% chance of victory. However, my analysis gives Marquette an 82% chance of victory in a slower game (66 possessions). The model predicts that the FG% will be about even, but MU will have an advantage on turnovers, offensive rebounds, and free throw attempts. Offense is predicted to be about average, but defense is predicted to be worse than average.

Media Updates

• Don Walker from the JSonline talks about how hot the ticket is for the Georgetown game
• Rosiak's blog entry has a Georgetown preview
• Here's the official GoMarquette.com release. Don't forget to take a look at the game notes. They also have podcasts with Buzz Williams, Lazar Hayward, and Maurice Acker
• GoMarquette.com also has some information about Coaches vs Cancer Awareness weekend, in which both coaching staffs will wear sneakers
• In an interesting story, GoMarquette.com also has a feature on Bob Wanek, the official scorekeeper.

Stay tuned... I'm sure there will be more articles about this game from the GU blogosphere

Big East Preview - Part Two

Back now with Part Two of the Big East Preview. In case you missed Part One, you can find it at this link. If you want more details on the factors I'm using, you can check it out here.

The data I used is taken from Pomeroy's site, where I extracted conference data only and worked with that. As a reminder, the factors under consideration were:

1. A team that underperformed or overperformed based on last year's stats
2. Consistency (or Inconsistency) of the team last year
   
3. Quality of Junior and Senior players (Using data provided by Villanova by the Numbers and then modified)
   
4. Regression of a team towards 0.500
   
5. Quality of incoming players based on RSCI
   

Before we move onto the the top eight teams (Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia), I wanted to make sure that something was clarified.

Projections are forecasts based on limited data. They are inherently inaccurate. Don't focus too much on any predictions regarding specific Wins/Losses or where the selected team is ranked in the preview. The most important value (IMO) is in the areas that I regard as statistical outliers, or where a team may have a red flag or potential bonus.

Clear? Onto the preview

Competing for a BET first round bye
The next six teams are all fairly close, and I'd expect each team to be somewhat in contention for a spot in the top four

#8 - Syracuse

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Syracuse (9-9), should have finished with a record of 9.9 - 8.1.
  
• Consistency - Modest impact. Syracuse was one of the more consistent teams in conference last year.
• Quality of Returning Starters - limited impact. Syracuse returns relatively few junior and senior minutes. They also lost Donte Green but will gain productivity from the return of both Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins.
  
• Expected Regression - They were at 0.500 last year, so no impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen -Syracuse welcomes 6'7 WF Kris Joseph to a team that was already young and talented. Bonus
  

Projection - 10-8. Expect Syracuse to be better this year. They're definitely talented, but are they too young to compete for a top spot? Expectations for the 'Cuse may be understated.

#7 - Notre Dame

• 2007 Results - Significant Overperformer. Based on their stats in conference, Notre Dame (14-4), should have finished with a record of 11.7 - 6.3. Red Flag
  
• Consistency - Modest impact. Notre Dame was one of the more consistent teams in conference last year, which means that I don't attribute their overperformance to inconsistency.
• Quality of Returning Starters - Significant Impact. Notre Dame returns one of the highest percentages of Junior and Senior minutes, as well as last year's BE POY, Floppy McFlopperson. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression - Significant impact. Based on their win % last year, Notre Dame should feel some pull back towards 0.500. Red Flag
  
• Incoming Freshmen - No Impact
  

Projection - 11-7. Despite the big advantage of returning almost everyone except the productive Rob Kurz, I see some major red flags for ND.

#6 - Pittsburgh

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Pittsburgh (10-8), should have finished with a record of 10.7 - 7.3. Of course, some of this was due to the injury suffered by Levance Fields.
  
• Consistency - No impact. Pitt was just slightly more inconsistent than league average.
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - limited impact. Although they return most of their players, relatively few of those players are junior and senior returning minutes. (This obviously changes if Mike Cook is granted an 8th year of eligibility). Pitt's on the wrong side of league average.
  
• Expected Regression - No impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Pittsburgh brings in 6'5 WF Nasir Robinson (#81). Too bad he's not from New York City. I bet you didn't know that Pitt gets a lot of players from NYC. Jamie Dixon also added solid backcourt performer Travon Woodall who should take some of the minutes vacated by the departed Keith Benjamin and Ronald Ramon. Bonus
  

Projection - 11-7. As mentioned at the beginning of this section, any of the teams in here could finish between 8th and 3rd. So why is Pitt down at #6? Because I don't like Pitt! Refreshing candor from Cracked Sidewalks, and hey... Pitt is above ND.

#5 - Georgetown

• 2007 Results - Significant overperformer. Based on their stats in conference, Georgetown (15-3), should have finished with a record of 13.7 - 4.3. This is just using math to say what everyone in conference knows... Georgetown got lucky last year against West Virginia, Villanova, and even Marquette. Red Flag
  
• Consistency - Modest impact. Georgetown was one of the more consistent teams in conference last year
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Modest impact. I know you're thinking that Georgetown lost everyone from that team (Roy Hibbert, Jonathan Wallace, Little Rivers, Little Ewing, and Vernon Macklin). However, even though they're on the low side of league average for returning junior and senior minutes, they're not at the bottom of the league.
  
• Expected Regression - Significant impact. There should be a strong pull on Georgetown's win percentage. Red Flag
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Fresh off of the 07 recruiting class that was top 10 RSCI, Georgetown brings in FOUR players in the RSCI Top 100 list, but can the kids step in and immediately replace the veteran production from last season? JTIII will also welcome 6'10" FSU transfer Julian Vaughn to campus this fall. Bonus
  

Projection - 12-6. Conventional wisdom is that Georgetown will be significantly down this year. I'm less bearish on the Hoyas' chances than many, despite the two big red flags listed above. The biggest reason is that GU will still have a decent number of returning contributors, as well as a huge influx of talent.

#4 - West Virginia

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, West Virginia (11-7), should have finished with a record of 11.5 - 6.5.
  
• Consistency - Significant impact. West Virginia was one of the more inconsistent teams in conference last year. Just as mentioned with Providence, this is a red flag, but possible bonus. If Year 2 of the Huggins Experience results in the 'Eers playing more consistently, then that's a boost. Red Flag (but possible bonus)
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Modest impact. Yes, I know that West Virginia lost Joe Alexander and Darris Nichols. However, West Virginia still returns one of the higher percentages of Junior and Senior minutes.
  
• Expected Regression - Limited impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - The late addition of former IU signee Devin Ebanks (#22) to go with Kevin Jones (#49) are big reasons why WVU could surprise to the upside this year. Bonus

Projection - 12-6. This is a team that could just as easily finish 8th as well. I just think that Huggins will get West Virginia to play more consistently and they won't be as bad.

#3 - Marquette

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Marquette (11-7), should have finished with a record of 11.3 - 6.7.
  
• Consistency - Significant impact. Marquette was the most inconsistent teams in conference last year. We even covered it in some depth on this site. Just as mentioned with West Virginia, this is a red flag, but possible bonus. The big question is if experience will result in more consistency, or if the inconsistency is a result of a guard-heavy roster. I hope it's the former, but fear it's the latter. Red Flag (but possible bonus)
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Significant impact. Three 1,000 point scorers and a junior in Lazar Hayward that was among the league's most improved players last year. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression - Limited impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - No impact. No offense to Chris Otule, but there are no incoming players on the RSCI Top 100 list. However, there is hope that new juco players Joe Fulce and Jimmy Butler will provide solid contributions.
  

Projection - 12-6. Before anyone gets on me for making this a homer pick, I'll say that this is a team that could just as easily finish 8th. I'm picking Marquette to finish third for one single reason: this is the year for Marquette and the Three Amigos to achieve great things. There is no grace period for new coach Buzz Williams. Expectations are, and should be, very high.

Truth is, this team underachieved in the regular season last year, yet it returns every meaningful player and introduces a few potentially useful spare parts. Despite coaching turnover, this mix should equate to more wins despite the overall improvement of the Big East across the board. MU has the veteran backcourt that coaches crave, admirable depth, and the seasoning of three straight NCAA appearances.

If this team significantly underachieves with all of their experience and talent, I could care less how good of a recruiter Buzz Williams is. No matter how good the incoming talent will be starting in 2009, Marquette will take a significant step back after losing McNeal, James, and Matthews. Anyone else not that interested in two disappointing years? That puts the pressure on performing well in 2008 - 2009.

The Top Two
I think these two teams will be the class of the Big East next year:

#2 - Connecticut

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, UConn (13-5), should have finished with a record of 12.3-5.7. Chalk one up to the Hall of Fame coach.
  
• Consistency - No impact. UConn was about league average
  
• Quality of Returning Starters. UConn returns the highest percentage of Junior and Senior experience in the league. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression. Some regression expected, but not significant
  
• Incoming Freshmen. UConn brings in the 6'1 PG Kemba Walker (#24) and 6'6 WG Nate Miles (#60) to another team that was good and now has a lot of experience. In particular look for point guard Kemba Walker to start fast as coach Jim Calhoun waits for A.J. Price to make a full recovery from knee surgery. Also, Miles can really play and will make UConn fans quickly forget the (for now) departed Stanley Robinson. Bonus
  

Projection - 13-5. At the end of the day, I just think that they're not the best team in the league. But they're close.

#1 - Louisville

• 2007 Results - Underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Louisville (14-4), should have finished with a record of 14.9 - 3.1. Injuries surely played a role
  
• Consistency - Louisville was one of the most consistent teams in the league, which helps when you're good. Bonus
  
• Quality of Returning Starters. Again, UL returns one of the highest number of Junior and Senior minutes. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression. Significant regression expected. Red flag
• Incoming Freshmen. Louisville brings in the RSCI #5 player, PF Samardo Samuels, to a loaded and experienced team. Bonus
• Wildcard: Derrick Caracter. Who knows what to expect from this talented yet troubled collegian. For now, he's factored out of the equation.
  

Projection - 14-4. Pitino hauls in the BE title he should have won last year.

Again, the focus is more on the potential bonus or red flag areas for each team, instead of the projected wins/losses or projected final ranking. Any of the teams from #3 through #9 could realistically fit in any random order. Besides, if I could accurately model results, I'd be typing this from my own private desert island.

Thanks to NYWarrior for his additional contributions. Finally, want to review the data in depth? Here is a link to the spreadsheet. (The file opens up automatically)

Recapturing Momentum (plus numbers)

What do we have here (again)?

As NYWarrior eloquently pointed out in , "What do we have here?", it's true that Marquette is susceptible to bad matchups. His basic conclusion is that Marquette definitely has a ceiling, and that we are likely to face a first round loss unless the matchup is good. NYWarrior is absolutely right. After all, we are a team that is only 3-7 against top 50 teams. When it matters, we don't beat the good teams. There is legitimate concern that this team will not get it done in the NCAA.

What is causing even more consternation is that this is the most likely window for the team. With the loss of Barro, Fitz, and probably James, we'll lose our most experienced post player and one of the most important members of the team. The post play will be Burke and sophomores/freshmen, and our point guard options will be Acker/Cubillan and freshmen. Despite the return of Matthews/McNeal/Hayward, I fully expect some sort of downslide next year. Couple that with the mantra oft-repeated by Crean-haters of "zero wins without Wade", and the fear is that the team's best opportunity just isn't good enough and the trend of zero wins post-Wade will continue. No true Marquette fan wants that.

Meeting Expectations

I want just one win this year in the NCAA tournament. That is "meeting expectations". It's kind of a bitter pill, honestly, because I had hoped, when the Amigos were freshmen, of a potential Elite Eight / Final-Four type run this year. Now, Sweet Sixteen or beyond is "exceeds expectations". This team has potential and could be special, but let's start with just one win.

Recapturing the Momentum

Heading into the Georgetown game, NYWarrior and I agreed on the following. Excluding Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette needed to win two of the next three games for us to feel confident about the team. This meant beating either Georgetown or Syracuse and winning the first game in the Big East Tournament. The logic behind this statement is that failure to win two out of three would portend that the team was likely to suffer yet another late season fade and NCAA first round flameout.

The opportunity is still there for this team. It's just that the margin of error has been eliminated. Thankfully, the team has the ability to shake out the cobwebs against Florida Gulf Coast. Then, it's time for Marquette to go and step on the dreams of a team just fighting to make the NCAA tournament. Given the right matchups in the BET, MU could even make the semis and win a few games. But it all starts with winning the next two (really three) games and recapturing that momentum heading into the NCAA tournament.

Give Us a Reason to Believe

Here's the deal with the team. We're searching, hoping, and praying for a reason to believe in this team. On Saturday, in front of 19K rabid fans and a national audience, we screamed and we believed and got collectively kicked in the teeth. The team and the fans are heartbroken. Marquette was close to breaking through with a statement win but just fell short.

It's gut check time in Marquette-land.

Give us a reason to maintain that hope. Come out strong against Florida Gulf Coast. Win against Syracuse and we'll believe. The refrain of "We Are Marquette" will ring out loud and clear in Madison Square Garden and wherever we play in the NCAA tournament.

We'll believe that on the first day of the NCAA tournament, MU will meet expectations.

Onto the numbers (with no individual ratings today due to length)

Four Factors Review


Looking at the Four Factors shows something fairly interesting. Each team was able to utilize their strengths. Yet again, Marquette was able to keep their turnovers down and force their opponent into more turnovers than normal. However, Georgetown was able to win the effective Field Goal % battle, which ultimately made the difference. Remember that Georgetown is number one in the country at effective Field Goal defense and number eight in the country at effective Field Goal offense. Although Marquette won the Offensive Rebounding battle and Georgetown won the Free Throw Rate battle, the two percentages were close enough such that the result was a wash.

Of course, there was also another factor at play in the game...

The Fifth Factor

Just kidding, folks. After all, it's not like we've ever complained about officials, ever. Despite what seemed like lots of calls going in Georgetown's favor, Marquette had the opportunity to win and did not. A few more free throws and a non-foul by James and this is all moot.

Time to move on to Florida Gulf Coast and Senior Night. Let's recapture that momentum.

Georgetown tops Marquette in overtime

Marquette squandered an 11-point second half lead and fell to the Georgetown Hoyas 70-68 in overtime this afternoon in Milwaukee.

The Golden Eagles used trademark defensive pressure to keep Georgetown out of sync for most of the game, but Patrick Ewing Jr's clutch play in the second half and a critical mistake by Dominic James late in regulation gave the Hoyas new life in overtime.

After weathering the Hoyas' late comeback, Marquette scrambled to gain a three point lead, 63-60, with just seconds remaining in regulation. That's when Jonathan Wallace went to work. Dominic James inexplicably fouled Wallace on a three-point attempt with less than three seconds remaining. The GU senior confidently drained all three freebies, tying the game at 63-63 and forcing overtime. Earlier in the second half, James fouled Wallace on a three-point attempt as well.

Late in overtime MU had a chance to tie the game, regaining possession with nine seconds remaining. MU failed to get a shot off, as James indecisively turned the ball over to end the game.

After trailing by 11 midway through the second half, Ewing keyed the Hoyas' revival. The forward buried a pivotal three-pointer to bring the Hoyas to within 54-50 with six minutes to play, and doled out a pair of assists, one to Wallace to give the Hoyas a 56-55 with 3:35 to play, their first lead since early in the opening minutes.

Wesley Matthews paced the Golden Eagles with a season-high 22 points. Jerel McNeal had 17 points, and Dominic James 15. Lazar Hayward was outclassed by DaJuan Summers, going 0-8 from the floor with four rebounds.

Although MU forced 21 Georgetown turnovers, that advantage was negated by the Golden Eagles' poor free throw shooting (61% on 22 of 36 from the stripe).

Wallace and Hibbert led the Hoyas with 20 points each.

With the loss, MU falls to 21-7 overall and 11-6 in the Big East.

Media Updates
Box Score

Marquette Battles Georgetown on National TV

The schedule makers couldn't have done a better job of pitting Marquette against Georgetown this Saturday afternoon at the Bradley Center. The Hoyas, tied with Louisville for first place in the Big East, have won three in a row. Marquette, winners of five straight, are surging and looking to secure favorable seeding in both the Big East tournament and the NCAA tournament. This game is huge for Marquette, and Georgetown needs the win to stay in the running for the Big East championship.

Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm CST. The game will be broadcast on CBS. Here's hoping Clark Kellogg comments on Marquette's "spurtability" early and often during the broadcast. To win this game, MU must force turnovers and dictate a quicker pace to create (hopefully) easier opportunities against the stingy Hoya defense.

Saturday is also National Marquette Day. If you are unable to watch the game live, then get out there with alums in your city and watch it in a group setting. We Are Marquette!

Media Updates - tons of links!
CBS Sportsline video preview
Rivals.com with an outstanding preview
Washington Times on the Hoyas' quest for the top seed in the BET
Hoya Hoops with a numbers preview
Scout.com preview
Marquette.com preview and game notes
Hoya Saxa with a preview
College Hoops Net with a great preview
Seth Davis picks us to win
ESPN's Weekend Watch Highlights Dominic James
Rosiak's blog has a great preview with lots of strategy comments by Crean

Stats Breakdown
Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Georgetown. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• #7 - Rating for the Hoyas effective Field Goal (eFG%) offense
• Georgetown is number seven amongst Division 1 programs for their effective Field Goal Percentage
• This is due to hitting a high percentage (#5) overall of two-point field goals - almost 56%
  
• #1 - top rating for effective Field Goal Defense
• That's right. Georgetown is the number one team in the country at effective Field Goal defense - limiting opponents to 41.7%
• Inside the arc, opponents get 40.1% field goal percentage, which is #3 in the country
  
• Georgetown is also good at defending on the three point line (29.8%), which is #10 in the country
• 320 - The national rank for Georgetown's pace
• The Hoyas only average 62 possessions / game, which is one of the slowest paces in the country
  
• Georgetown is a classic example of the value for tempo free (possession-based) stats
  
• 13.7% - Block rate for Georgetown
  
• This is good enough to be Top 10% in the country (#27 overall), or a block about once every seven shots
  
• 20.2% - Turnover Rating that Georgetown averages on offense
  
• TO Rate plays a large role in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency for Georgetown
• Signs of hope! Marquette wins the turnover battle consistently! and does a lot better when our opponents are worse than average (20%)
  
• Georgetown only forces a 19.2% Turnover Rate for Defense, so expect Marquette to protect the ball fairly well
  

Basically, Georgetown is exceptional at two things... making and preventing two-point baskets. Even more troubling, there are a lot of the similarities between the areas of expertise for UConn, Louisville, and Georgetown. All three teams do well at effective Field Goal defense, two-point field goal defense, and blocking shots. This is a real concern for Marquette, and we expect that everyone should just prepare themselves to watch our half-court offense look very ugly.

However, there are some definite opportunities. Marquette has been outstanding at forcing turnovers lately, and our ball-pressure could really challenge Georgetown's guards. If we're able to rattle the Hoyas into more turnovers than they want and make this into a transition game, then the Bradley Center crowd will start rocking.

Bonus Stats Coverage

In addition, Georgetown has had some rough patches lately that suggest potential weakness. Certainly, the fact that they were beaten soundly by Louisville, and needed a controversial call in order to defeat Villanova, indicates to the casual observer that Georgetown may not be playing particularly well.

It is certainly true that Georgetown has not been playing as well recently as they represent for the entire season. Don't get too confident, however. The Hoyas appear to be getting back on track both offensively and defensively with trends that are headed in the desired directions (at least for Georgetown).

The good news is that Marquette has been playing great basketball as of late.

Marquette is streaking, and unlike the Hoyas, we are playing better right now that we have been for the entire season. Note that Marquette's efficiency for the year is completely comparable to Georgetown's. In front of a rabid home crowd and a national audience, it could be a very enjoyable Saturday afternoon.

*post is a joint contribution from NYWarrior and Henry Sugar

Jesuit Smackdown

UPDATED
The Big East's two hottest teams square off on Saturday afternoon in our nation's capital when 11th ranked Marquette (21-4, 8-2) slips into town to take on the #22 ranked Georgetown Hoyas (17-5, 7-2). In order to extend its conference-best eight game winning streak Marquette will have to slow down the surging Hoyas, winners of six in a row.

The game will be broadcast nationally on ESPN. Tipoff is scheduled for 11am CST.

As if the Hoyas need extra incentive (they don't), Georgetown will celebrate 100 years of basketball on Saturday. Many past Hoya greats are expected to return to campus for the celebration.

Georgetown has steamrolled its last six opponents by an average of 15 points per game. As hot as the Hoyas are, they've not exactly annihilated murderer's row in the past few weeks (@Rutgers, @Seton Hall, DePaul, Cincy, St Johns, @Louisville) but with Roy Hibbert coming up with two double-doubles in his last three games its clear that JTIII has his troops playing better and better.

The Hoyas are paced by their front line, the best group in the Big East -- Hibbert, Jeff Green, Vernon Macklin and DaJuan Summers. The four big men combine to average 38 points per game for JTIII, led by Hibbert and Green at more than a dozen apiece. With their efficient frontline and the modified Princeton-style offense, Georgetown leads the Big East in field goal percentage -- and is the only team in the league hitting more than 50% of its shots (GU shoots 53% from the field).

In the backcourt, Jonathan Wallace is enjoying a fine season averaging better than 11ppg and connecting on 48% of his three-point attempts.

Marquette will look to its Big East-best backcourt to balance the Hoyas' baseline presence. MU's Triple Threat is averaging a combined 43ppg this season, and consistently deliver the defensive intensity Tom Crean's squad needs to dictate the style of play.....and style of play will be the key on Saturday.

Who will blink first, TC or JTIII?

Last year, MU's speed, intense perimeter defense, and crisp offense negated the Hoyas' height advantage in the Golden Eagles' victory at the Bradley Center. Hibbert played well, but Bowman and Green combined for just nine points. In the rematch at MSG during the Big East Tourney, the Hoya's defense held MU to just 39% shooting. Led by Jeff Green and now-departed point guard Ashanti Cook, who each scored 16 points, GU owned the glass (MU out-rebounded the Hoyas in the first meeting) and hit clutch free throws late to seal the deal.

With a smaller, quicker team, Crean has found ways to turn his Marquette's speed into a distinct advantage against bigger, lumbering teams. In the Golden Eagles' inaugural Big East opener last season, Steve Novak turned in the greatest individual performance in conference history with 41 points and 17 rebounds. That night, quickness and effective ball movement on offense negated the substantial height advantage from UConn (read: Boone, Adrien, Armstrong and Gay) as the Golden Eagles ran away with the victory. The same formula worked earlier this season in Marquette's win at Pittsburgh, where Aaron Gray was marginalized as the game wore on. Jamie Dixon was forced to 'go small' in order to put a more effective defensive team on the floor.

With Green, Summers, Hibbert and Macklin rotating on the baseline, at least one of them will have to guard Fitzgerald or Wesley Matthews in order for JTIII to keep three of them on the floor at the same time. In their last game against Louisville, which moved to a three (if not four) guard lineup, coach Thompson played Summers, Hibbert and Green each in excess of 30 minutes while Macklin only made it off the bench for two minutes of action. Perhaps MU can expect a similar rotation of Hoya big men on Saturday.

Still, if Ousmane Barro can hold his own down low and MU's guards can rebound effectively, the Golden Eagles could dictate the style of play yet again. A lineup of James, McNeal, Matthews, Fitzgerald and Barro would keep the floor spread and force JTIII to make some tougher personel choices -- if the Golden Eagles can create a more frenetic style of play at the expense of the Hoyas' young backcourt.

How Georgetown matches up with the 6'9" Fitzgerald will be key. The junior is shooting 43% from three-point range this season, and has hit a number of clutch shots from that distance in conference play.

MEDIA UPDATES

• Here's the MUScoop information header for Saturday's game.
  
• Eric Silver previews the game for MarquetteHoops.
• HoyaSaxa's pre-game report.
  
• The Associated Press preview is on the wire -- check it out.
• The GU Hoya on the Hoyas' pursuit of a marquee victory on Saturday.
• CNNSI's Luke Winn has MU up to #7 in his power poll -- and gives a shout-out to Todd Rosiak's new blog.
• Sportsline matches up MU and GU in their Head to Head analysis.
• Todd Rosiak blogs on MU's arrival in DC -- Crean is still sick with the flu.