Pitt - It Was The Offense

It was the offense that let things down. It was also the defense. But it was more the offense.

It was the defense

The interior defense was horrible. As in an email that I received this morning, it seemed like a second-half dunkfest. Pitt was able to seemingly get buckets at will, and this resulted in an eFG% for the game of 59.5%. Let's put that in context a bit. It was the third worst defensive eFG% allowed by Marquette for the year. It was also the third best eFG% that Pitt had the entire year. That's bad.

However, Marquette did a pretty good job everywhere else on the defensive end. Pitt coughed the ball up on over 26% of possessions, only got 23% offensive rebounds on missed shots, and only got a free throw rate of 28%. All of these areas were notably worse than Pitt's season averages.

When you add it all up, Pitt only got 0.96 points per possession last night. From an overall defense perspective, that's pretty solid. In fact, against quality teams, that is one of the better defensive outings of the year.

It was the offense

Marquette has an eFG% average of almost 53%. Last night? Marquette had their worst eFG% of the year at... 39.2%. And while Pitt, who typically holds opponents to an eFG% of 43.5%, can be credited, this was still worse than should be expected. In addition, while the overall turnover percentage last night was not bad at 17%, it was still too many turnovers against a team that almost never forces turnovers!

Marquette's final offensive efficiency for the game was 0.85 points per possession. That's horrid, especially considering that Marquette averages 1.13 points per possession. There is almost no chance of beating Sister Mary of the Poor, let alone any Big EAST team with an offensive efficiency that bad.

How much of this do we credit to Pitt? Obviously, we have to credit Pitt because they are a good defensive team. However, Marquette has gone against better defensive teams, or teams that are just as good, and done much better offensively. At West Virginia, Marquette was at 1.07 ppp. At UConn, 1.09 ppp. (Let's just not talk about facing elite defenses like Florida State and Syracuse)

In summary, while the defense was part of the problem (and parts of it were very bad), in the end it was the breakdown of the offense.

That's about all I want to talk about Pitt. Time to get ready for the Cincinnati game.

Marquette Doesn't Step Up

Needing to secure at least four more victories to make the NCAA tournament, Marquette failed to step up against Pitt, falling 58-51 last night. The big killer in this game was the shooting percentages, where Pitt had an effective field goal percentage of 59.5% and Marquette's was 39.2%. Both of those were way out of line, and it led to Marquette's second worse offensive outing of the year (FSU). The planned Gold Out looked pretty weak too, except for the student section.

I'm really just not in the mood to write anything clever or interesting (not like that's new), so here are some recaps from around the web.

• Rosiak's initial blog recap
• Rosiak's more detailed blog recap
• The official Rosiak Story
• Mike Hunt stops playing Mad-Eye Moody long enough to add his commentary
  

Also, here's the Official GoMarquette.com release. It includes the box score, photo gallery, and some recaps. We're embedding the interviews directly.

Buzz Williams



Lazar





Marquette must now regroup for a three game road trip that takes the team to Cincy, St. Johns, and then Seton Hall. Honestly, we feel as though Marquette needs to win two of these three games, and then the games against Louisville and ND to avoid having to make a run in the BET. The game against Cincy will be 1:00 on Sunday.

Be the Difference Against Pitt

(Cracked Sidewalks - where we aren't afraid to be a little cheesy in our titles)

First, bone up on previous online content by reading the Q&A from PittBlather.com down below, or go and check out the Media Availability with Buzz down below, or even at the official GoMarquette.com site. MU's site also has player interviews.

Correctly, Rosiak leads with a story about all the chatter on MU making the NCAA tournament, even as the team itself stays focused on its winning recipe. If we're being cynical, we say that it's his own paper talking about it. However, since we're inspired by Conan O'Brien to not be cynical, we will note that this has been picked up by Andy Katz on ESPN, SI.com, Lunardi, and (oh hey) this humble blog. Heck, even Basketball Prospectus is getting close to calling Marquette the best team in the Big EAST. (Please don't write that iconoclastic article, John)

But it's all crap if Marquette doesn't win against Pitt. After all, that's life on the bubble. Luckily, all the pieces are in place to make this the biggest must-win-big-game since the last must-win game with a big game feel. It's a national broadcast game (ESPN2) on a Thursday night at 8 PM. The student section needs to bring it, and the alums in the stands need to lead as well. To add a little emphasis to the game, Marquette is encouraging a "Gold Out" for the game. Since there's been a little bit of online debate about wearing gold, here's our position. We are Marquette Warriors, refusing to buy or wear anything with the chicken on it, but We Are Marquette more than anything. Wear gold and be a part of something larger than yourself. Or don't (whatever), but the sea of gold looks awesome on TV.

Of course, how on earth are we going to beat Pitt? After all, they already won at Syracuse, at Cincy, and at UConn, plus they're coming off an epic 3OT Victory against West Virginia. Still, we're calling a victory thanks to the Marquette fans being the difference (no, seriously).

Digging into the numbers, we see that both teams are really well matched up on multiple levels. (Check out specifics for Marquette and Pitt at Pomeroy's website if you want the numbers)

First, our strengths in general match up really with their strengths. We're great offensively and they're great defensively. They get to the line a bunch and we don't let opponents get to the line that much.

But even in some matchups, it doesn't really matter. Does it matter if you protect the ball well if your opponent doesn't care about forcing turnovers? Or if you prevent opponents from getting to the line if they never get to the line?

Heck, even when the teams are mediocre, they match up well. Our defense is lame, but so is their offense.


The few advantages are really around turnovers and rebounding, which I'm sure is a big shock to all the MU fans out there. Honestly, it's not even that big of an advantage on either side. But surely this is where the game will be won?


No. With all of the even matchups, this game will be won because life is hard on the road. We're predicting a slower-paced game with both teams not shooting particularly well. However, we expect Marquette to shoot better than Pitt due to the friendly (and unfriendly) confines of the BC. Despite losing on the boards, we are also predicting that Marquette wins on turnovers and free throw rate too.

But mostly it's the shooting percentages that will matter, which brings us back to you, the Marquette fans, and how difficult you make life for Pitt. Just picture Jamie Dixon calling a timeout after yet another turnover leading to Marquette three pointer. In summary, Marquette absolutely has to win this game and when the matchup is this close, it'll be the fans that make the difference in good (or bad) shooting. Wear your gold, get "eager", and be loud.

Marquette wins 66-59.

Know your opponent: Pittsburgh Panthers

On Thursday night the red-hot Marquette Warriors renew hostilities with the Pittsburgh Panthers at the Bradley Center. Since MU only plays the Panthers once during the regular season we wanted to seek out an expert's take of Jamie Dixon's bunch, and we're pleased to welcome Chas Rich from the PittBlather and AOL FanHouse back to CrackedSidewalks for more on the Panthers. You can check out our contribution to PittBlather here.

After losing three All BIG EAST caliber players from last year's team, what is the Panthers' formula for success this season?

To some degree it hasn't changed. The tempo is slower than it was last year, more along the lines of what it was before Sam Young became the offensive threat he was last season.

Pitt plays primarily man-to-man defense, but has been more willing to go to zone when needed. The offense is still an motion style, but with less emphasis on working it inside the same way. There is more dribble penetration and an emphasis on the guards getting the looks.


Pitt and MU have had some tough games going back to 2003, and the record since then is evenly matched at 4-4. What is the Pitt perspective on games with Marquette.

Well, I know it doesn't have the same energy without the eminently hateable Tom Crean (I still do not want to talk about the Indiana game). The series isn't a rivalry for three reasons: not enough history and hate built up; no connection with geography; and the lack of a football competition or any other connection between the schools.

That said, it always a tough game and matters to me more than, say St. John's or Seton Hall. I look at it as one of the most challenging matchups and barometers of Pitt's overall ability and versatility come March. With Marquette being such a guard-heavy and speedy team they really challenge Pitt to adjust.


The Panthers raced out to a 5-0 start in BE action, lost four of 5 and has now won three in a row. Are the Panthers inconsistent or is this just how the BE is playing out for Dixon's crew?

Yes.
And no.
And sort of.

Simply put, this is still a very young team. That means spells where they play to a level of the competition. It is also a team that takes a lot more jump shots than in past years. Jump shooting is not a consistent thing, no matter how much we wish it was. When the shots fall, it's all good. When they aren't the teams struggles. There's more stagnation on offense. Less motion and more attempts to drive without players moving.

Another factor, relating to youth is adjustments. In the non-con, teams threw some zones at Pitt and they simply didn't know what to do. That led to insane struggles and great frustration. But they learned, and by the time they faced Syracuse they knew how to attack it.

They then had to make a new adjustment that they struggled to do when they lost 4-of-5. Ashton Gibbs being shut down. It actually started the game before against Louisville, but what changed was teams realized just how dangerous Gibbs was so he was absolutely blanketed. He couldn't get clean looks and he started forcing more shots because the team relied so heavily on him. The last few games have seen the team show that they are adjusting to the tactic. Working harder to move the ball and give Gibbs screens and shots. Plus, simply not relying so heavily on making Gibbs provide all the offense.

I think inconsistent isn't quite right, but I would understand how people would see it that way. With the exception of the game at WV, Pitt was in all of the games they lost. They just couldn't make those stops or hit the shots in the final minutes -- up 1 on Georgetown with a little more than 6 minutes left, down 4 to USF with 90+ seconds left, losing by 3 to Seton Hall when Gibbs game-tying 3 failed twice in the final 8 seconds. Make no mistake, Pitt deserved to lose those games. Yet they still had chances and difference between those losses and wins over Cinci, Louisville and even UConn probably were not not too far away.

As you know the Big East is rough especially on the road. Pitt has lost only once at home -- to Georgetown -- all other losses came on the road or neutral sites. The three straight road wins at Syracuse, UConn and Cinci look even more amazing when you think about it. It also created unrealistic expectations that Pitt could keep winning on the road like that.

The last few years Pitt has had good defense while forcing very few turnovers. Can you share a little bit of insight about Pitt's defensive strategy to not force turnovers?

That's easy. Pitt's defense is very conservative and keeping in front of the offense. It is about not giving up position, and forcing opponents to get impatient. Limiting possessions and being able to be positioned to get the rebounds. Pitt is a slow-tempo team. Not just on offense. They want to control the pace by keeping teams from going quickly on offense. Going for turnovers is a risk. No matter how calculated it may be. It means risking losing the position, giving up the easy drive to the basket or surrendering the passing lane for the open look. Pitt's defense is about making sure teams work for each possession and expend energy doing it.

It is also about the personnel. Teams -- like Marquette -- that use the turnovers as part of their defense use their guards and quickness to get in there and slap at the ball. Pitt's guards just aren't coached that way and for at least a couple of them, would not excel at it.

One of the game's best battles looks to be the matchup between Pitt's Gilbert Brown and MU's Jimmy Butler. Brown has show marked improvement year to year, any sense of how this matchup might play out?

Well, I'm not entirely sure that Brown and Butler will face each other directly. Defensively, it would not surprise me to see Jermaine Dixon (and also Brad Wanamaker) working to contain Butler. Brown is not as good defensively as he could be, while Dixon is Pitt's defender. A nifty factoid in the second half of the WVU-Pitt game on Friday Butler was to 1-9 shooting when Dixon was guarding him and 8-13 with anyone else.

Brown is definitely the most polished, athletic player on Pitt's roster at this point. He has improved his 3-point shooting, which gives him more room to take guys off the dribble and attack.

From a Pitt perspective, what will you be watching for early in Thursday's game?

How Pitt handles the defensive pressure from Marquette. Too many early turnovers will not be a good thing. It will put Pitt behind and further embolden the typically loud crowd at the Bradley Center.

Chas, thanks very much!

Big East Preview - Part Two

Back now with Part Two of the Big East Preview. In case you missed Part One, you can find it at this link. If you want more details on the factors I'm using, you can check it out here.

The data I used is taken from Pomeroy's site, where I extracted conference data only and worked with that. As a reminder, the factors under consideration were:

1. A team that underperformed or overperformed based on last year's stats
2. Consistency (or Inconsistency) of the team last year
   
3. Quality of Junior and Senior players (Using data provided by Villanova by the Numbers and then modified)
   
4. Regression of a team towards 0.500
   
5. Quality of incoming players based on RSCI
   

Before we move onto the the top eight teams (Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia), I wanted to make sure that something was clarified.

Projections are forecasts based on limited data. They are inherently inaccurate. Don't focus too much on any predictions regarding specific Wins/Losses or where the selected team is ranked in the preview. The most important value (IMO) is in the areas that I regard as statistical outliers, or where a team may have a red flag or potential bonus.

Clear? Onto the preview

Competing for a BET first round bye
The next six teams are all fairly close, and I'd expect each team to be somewhat in contention for a spot in the top four

#8 - Syracuse

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Syracuse (9-9), should have finished with a record of 9.9 - 8.1.
  
• Consistency - Modest impact. Syracuse was one of the more consistent teams in conference last year.
• Quality of Returning Starters - limited impact. Syracuse returns relatively few junior and senior minutes. They also lost Donte Green but will gain productivity from the return of both Eric Devendorf and Andy Rautins.
  
• Expected Regression - They were at 0.500 last year, so no impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen -Syracuse welcomes 6'7 WF Kris Joseph to a team that was already young and talented. Bonus
  

Projection - 10-8. Expect Syracuse to be better this year. They're definitely talented, but are they too young to compete for a top spot? Expectations for the 'Cuse may be understated.

#7 - Notre Dame

• 2007 Results - Significant Overperformer. Based on their stats in conference, Notre Dame (14-4), should have finished with a record of 11.7 - 6.3. Red Flag
  
• Consistency - Modest impact. Notre Dame was one of the more consistent teams in conference last year, which means that I don't attribute their overperformance to inconsistency.
• Quality of Returning Starters - Significant Impact. Notre Dame returns one of the highest percentages of Junior and Senior minutes, as well as last year's BE POY, Floppy McFlopperson. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression - Significant impact. Based on their win % last year, Notre Dame should feel some pull back towards 0.500. Red Flag
  
• Incoming Freshmen - No Impact
  

Projection - 11-7. Despite the big advantage of returning almost everyone except the productive Rob Kurz, I see some major red flags for ND.

#6 - Pittsburgh

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Pittsburgh (10-8), should have finished with a record of 10.7 - 7.3. Of course, some of this was due to the injury suffered by Levance Fields.
  
• Consistency - No impact. Pitt was just slightly more inconsistent than league average.
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - limited impact. Although they return most of their players, relatively few of those players are junior and senior returning minutes. (This obviously changes if Mike Cook is granted an 8th year of eligibility). Pitt's on the wrong side of league average.
  
• Expected Regression - No impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Pittsburgh brings in 6'5 WF Nasir Robinson (#81). Too bad he's not from New York City. I bet you didn't know that Pitt gets a lot of players from NYC. Jamie Dixon also added solid backcourt performer Travon Woodall who should take some of the minutes vacated by the departed Keith Benjamin and Ronald Ramon. Bonus
  

Projection - 11-7. As mentioned at the beginning of this section, any of the teams in here could finish between 8th and 3rd. So why is Pitt down at #6? Because I don't like Pitt! Refreshing candor from Cracked Sidewalks, and hey... Pitt is above ND.

#5 - Georgetown

• 2007 Results - Significant overperformer. Based on their stats in conference, Georgetown (15-3), should have finished with a record of 13.7 - 4.3. This is just using math to say what everyone in conference knows... Georgetown got lucky last year against West Virginia, Villanova, and even Marquette. Red Flag
  
• Consistency - Modest impact. Georgetown was one of the more consistent teams in conference last year
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Modest impact. I know you're thinking that Georgetown lost everyone from that team (Roy Hibbert, Jonathan Wallace, Little Rivers, Little Ewing, and Vernon Macklin). However, even though they're on the low side of league average for returning junior and senior minutes, they're not at the bottom of the league.
  
• Expected Regression - Significant impact. There should be a strong pull on Georgetown's win percentage. Red Flag
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Fresh off of the 07 recruiting class that was top 10 RSCI, Georgetown brings in FOUR players in the RSCI Top 100 list, but can the kids step in and immediately replace the veteran production from last season? JTIII will also welcome 6'10" FSU transfer Julian Vaughn to campus this fall. Bonus
  

Projection - 12-6. Conventional wisdom is that Georgetown will be significantly down this year. I'm less bearish on the Hoyas' chances than many, despite the two big red flags listed above. The biggest reason is that GU will still have a decent number of returning contributors, as well as a huge influx of talent.

#4 - West Virginia

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, West Virginia (11-7), should have finished with a record of 11.5 - 6.5.
  
• Consistency - Significant impact. West Virginia was one of the more inconsistent teams in conference last year. Just as mentioned with Providence, this is a red flag, but possible bonus. If Year 2 of the Huggins Experience results in the 'Eers playing more consistently, then that's a boost. Red Flag (but possible bonus)
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Modest impact. Yes, I know that West Virginia lost Joe Alexander and Darris Nichols. However, West Virginia still returns one of the higher percentages of Junior and Senior minutes.
  
• Expected Regression - Limited impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - The late addition of former IU signee Devin Ebanks (#22) to go with Kevin Jones (#49) are big reasons why WVU could surprise to the upside this year. Bonus

Projection - 12-6. This is a team that could just as easily finish 8th as well. I just think that Huggins will get West Virginia to play more consistently and they won't be as bad.

#3 - Marquette

• 2007 Results - underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Marquette (11-7), should have finished with a record of 11.3 - 6.7.
  
• Consistency - Significant impact. Marquette was the most inconsistent teams in conference last year. We even covered it in some depth on this site. Just as mentioned with West Virginia, this is a red flag, but possible bonus. The big question is if experience will result in more consistency, or if the inconsistency is a result of a guard-heavy roster. I hope it's the former, but fear it's the latter. Red Flag (but possible bonus)
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Significant impact. Three 1,000 point scorers and a junior in Lazar Hayward that was among the league's most improved players last year. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression - Limited impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - No impact. No offense to Chris Otule, but there are no incoming players on the RSCI Top 100 list. However, there is hope that new juco players Joe Fulce and Jimmy Butler will provide solid contributions.
  

Projection - 12-6. Before anyone gets on me for making this a homer pick, I'll say that this is a team that could just as easily finish 8th. I'm picking Marquette to finish third for one single reason: this is the year for Marquette and the Three Amigos to achieve great things. There is no grace period for new coach Buzz Williams. Expectations are, and should be, very high.

Truth is, this team underachieved in the regular season last year, yet it returns every meaningful player and introduces a few potentially useful spare parts. Despite coaching turnover, this mix should equate to more wins despite the overall improvement of the Big East across the board. MU has the veteran backcourt that coaches crave, admirable depth, and the seasoning of three straight NCAA appearances.

If this team significantly underachieves with all of their experience and talent, I could care less how good of a recruiter Buzz Williams is. No matter how good the incoming talent will be starting in 2009, Marquette will take a significant step back after losing McNeal, James, and Matthews. Anyone else not that interested in two disappointing years? That puts the pressure on performing well in 2008 - 2009.

The Top Two
I think these two teams will be the class of the Big East next year:

#2 - Connecticut

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, UConn (13-5), should have finished with a record of 12.3-5.7. Chalk one up to the Hall of Fame coach.
  
• Consistency - No impact. UConn was about league average
  
• Quality of Returning Starters. UConn returns the highest percentage of Junior and Senior experience in the league. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression. Some regression expected, but not significant
  
• Incoming Freshmen. UConn brings in the 6'1 PG Kemba Walker (#24) and 6'6 WG Nate Miles (#60) to another team that was good and now has a lot of experience. In particular look for point guard Kemba Walker to start fast as coach Jim Calhoun waits for A.J. Price to make a full recovery from knee surgery. Also, Miles can really play and will make UConn fans quickly forget the (for now) departed Stanley Robinson. Bonus
  

Projection - 13-5. At the end of the day, I just think that they're not the best team in the league. But they're close.

#1 - Louisville

• 2007 Results - Underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Louisville (14-4), should have finished with a record of 14.9 - 3.1. Injuries surely played a role
  
• Consistency - Louisville was one of the most consistent teams in the league, which helps when you're good. Bonus
  
• Quality of Returning Starters. Again, UL returns one of the highest number of Junior and Senior minutes. Bonus
  
• Expected Regression. Significant regression expected. Red flag
• Incoming Freshmen. Louisville brings in the RSCI #5 player, PF Samardo Samuels, to a loaded and experienced team. Bonus
• Wildcard: Derrick Caracter. Who knows what to expect from this talented yet troubled collegian. For now, he's factored out of the equation.
  

Projection - 14-4. Pitino hauls in the BE title he should have won last year.

Again, the focus is more on the potential bonus or red flag areas for each team, instead of the projected wins/losses or projected final ranking. Any of the teams from #3 through #9 could realistically fit in any random order. Besides, if I could accurately model results, I'd be typing this from my own private desert island.

Thanks to NYWarrior for his additional contributions. Finally, want to review the data in depth? Here is a link to the spreadsheet. (The file opens up automatically)

Pittsburgh Numbers Recap

In our Preview, some of the key areas to watch for were Pitt's Offensive Efficiency and their Offensive Rebounding Percentage.

Looking at the Four Factors, we can see how good of a performance it was by Marquette.


Marquette won every single area of the Four Factors. Pittsburgh was the #8 team in the country at offensive rebounding percentage, and we managed to win the battle of Offensive Rebounding and to hold them well below their average. Don't look now, but Marquette has triumphed in this area in four of the last five contests. In addition, Pitt was the #14 team in the country at Offensive Efficiency with a rating of 115.7. For Marquette to hold them to an efficiency of 83.5 shows how well MU did at defense.


The Offensive and Defensive Ratings for our team continue to move in the right directions. As one can see, there was a terrible trend for both areas, which reached a nadir at the UConn game. The team plateaued until the Cincinnati game, and now things are moving properly. Right now, the team is getting better at the end of the season, which is a refreshing change. In addition, despite all of our troubles, we are still rated as the #15 Offense and the #12 Defense in the country by Pomeroy. That's pretty darn good, folks.

Final Season Projections

• Pomeroy still projects a final conference record of 12-6, meaning one loss in our last five conference games.
• Our conference statistics project a final record of 11.8 - 6.2, meaning one to two (but closer to one) losses in our final games
• Based on how we've been playing the last five games, we project to a final record of 13-5, meaning we run the table.
  

Last time we did the projections, the view was for the team to lose anywhere from 0-3 games. Based on how the team continues to improve, our current forecast is consistently only 0-1 more losses.

Individual Player Ratings


Fresh off of a week in which Cracked Sidewalks said that Jerel McNeal was not a winning player during conference play, McNeal ended up as the statistical stud of the game. Barro, of course, was second on the list, with other noteworthy contributions by Cubillan, Matthews, and James. Interestingly enough, Lazar Hayward ended up with a negative net contribution, as Sam Young seemed to win the head-to-head battle and the perceived lead for "Most Improved Conference Player". Finally, although I was reasonably sure that Mbakwe ended up with 38 points, 19 rebounds, and 8 blocked shots in his eight minutes of play, the box score didn't seem to reflect that information. Poor Trevor starts off his college career with a negative net game. May this be his last!

All the numbers are starting to point in the right direction. Let's hope that the momentum continues and we win big against St. Johns on Wednesday.

Marquette hosts Pittsburgh

UPDATED
Fresh off an impressive road win over Seton Hall, Marquette (17-6, 7-5) returns home on Friday to host the gritty Pittsburgh Panthers (19-5, 7-4). Tipoff is scheduled for 8pm on ESPN.

Jamie Dixon, who should be the mid-season favorite for Big East coach of the year, has his Panthers riding high despite losing two key starters early in the season. Absent the talented duo of Levance Fields and Mike Cook, Dixon's crew has won three of their last four outings, including an 82-62 thrashing of Providence on Tuesday night.

Dixon will get half of that injured duo back on Friday - -point guard Levance "Don't Tase Me Bro" Fields will play against MU. That'll be an enormous boost to the Panthers who have resorted to playing senior sharpshooter Ronald Ramon at the point, which marginalized his effectiveness as one of the nation's top three-point threats. Fields has been out since breaking his foot on December 29 against Dayton. Fields missed more time for the foot injury than he did for punching an off-duty police officer, allegedly grabbing for the officer's weapon, and ultimately being tased in an incident outside a strip club last September.

In the absence of Cook, Sam Young is turning in an All-Big East caliber season. The 6'7" forward has blossomed in his junior campaign, pouring in 18 points and grabbing seven boards per outing. Young's offensive game is diverse as he is nailing 40% of this attempts from deep, yet leads the Panthers in free throws attempted. Lazar Hayward figures to draw the tough assignment to slow down Young.

As good as Young has been, MU's toughest matchup figures to be DeJuan Blair, the manchild on the frontline for the Panthers. Blair averages a double double in conference play, and the numbers below show how outstanding his performance this year has been. Led by Blair and Young, the Panthers are one of the best rebounding teams in the league.

With Fields back in the mix, MU will need to hit the floor with the same toughness and energy we saw in Newark earlier in the week. Marquette summoned up the moxie and energy that was missing for much of the Big East season as they silenced the chippy Pirates. The Golden Eagles dominated the Pirates on the glass, held them to just 38% shooting, and had an impressive 13 assists on just 30 made field goals.

Crean's squad played .500 ball during its recent four-game stretch which included three games on the road. Record aside, Marquette showed flashes of becoming the team which dominated Wisconsin and nearly topped Duke in both the Notre Dame loss and the Seton Hall win. In fact, some fans have made it back to Jonestown. If the Golden Eagles expect to make a charge for one of the four first-round byes in the Big East Tournament, a win over the Panthers -- who lead MU by 1/2 a game - - is a must.

MU will honor the 2003 Final Four team at Friday's game, with many former players and coaches expected to be in attendance. In addition, Converse will be filming a TV commercial at the 12-minute mark of the first half. Both activities, combined with a Friday night game, are sure to have the crowd in a raucous mood. Could there be a Dwyane Wade appearance to further pump up the rowdiness?

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Pittsburgh. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• 76% - Pomeroy predicts a 76% chance of victory for Marquette
• 14 - Pitt is the #14 team in the country at Offensive Efficiency
• Think Pitt is winning games with their defense? Their defense is #44 in the country, which is decent but not as strong as their offense.
  
• However, three of Pitt's last six opponents have been held to low Efficiencies
  
• Marquette is the #16 team in the country at Offensive Efficiency and the #17 team in the country at Defensive Efficiency. Will we be able to shut Pitt down?
  
• 8 - Pitt is the #8 team in the country at Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)
• The Panthers secure 41.1% of all potential Offensive Rebounds to help bolster that offensive efficiency
  
• 265 - Pitt's national rank at Pace
• Pitt averages one of the slowest paces in the country for games at just under 65 possessions / game
• 45 - The jersey number of DeJuan Blair
• Blair is the fifth best Offensive Rebounder in the country. He grabs over 17% of all potential ORs.
• Blair is also #35 in the country at grabbing steals during games, at a steal on 4.6% of all possessions
• For comparison, McNeal is only at #50 in the country
  

In summary, Pitt's defense is decent. However, the Panthers are really winning a lot of games based on a slowed down pace and high offensive efficiency. A great deal of this offensive efficiency is due to Pitt's ability to crash the offensive boards, especially by DeJuan Blair. Let's watch for Marquette to come out fired up on the boards, push the pace, and fulfill the prediction of a Marquette victory.

As for Levance, well.....



Media Updates

• GoMarquette.com game notes/preview
• The Associated Press on Fields' return to action
• Rosiak on the return of the Final Four team
• Scout.com's game preview
• PittBlather is thrilled to have Fields back in action
• Big East Basketball Report with a great preview of the game.
  

This post created jointly by NYWarrior and Henry Sugar

Try, try again

Apologies for the less-than-timely update on last night's loss.....back to back late nights with work sandwiched in between can get in the way of blogging (sadly).

Anyway, Pitt finally broke through and topped Marquette this season with a 89-79 win in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament. With the loss, MU falls to 24-9 on the season and now looks to Selection Sunday. According to the Bracket Project figures, MU could be slotted as a dreaded 5 seed. Gimme a 6, please, gimme a 6!

Back to the game. Aaron Gray dominated the lane last night ending up with 22 points and 10 boards (six on the offensive end). Honestly it felt like he scored 40 points last night-- MU had no answer for the assertive Pitt center.

Pitt's efficient offense extended beyond Gray's big night -- I'd love to see the shot chart for the Panthers. I'd guess that in the first half, 70%-80% of the Panthers points came from inside the lane (or at least from within 12 feet of the basket). Things didn't seem to change much in the second half as the Panthers displayed new-found aggressiveness in attacking the basket with just about every player on the floor. For the game, Pitt shot nearly 50% from the field -- and seemed to do just about anything they wanted to do offensively.

Despite the Panthers' effectiveness on offense, MU was able to stay within striking distance for most of the night. With the Panthers overplaying every James drive, MU's offensive rhythm was choppy at best but Dan Fitzgerald's hot hand, Lazar Hayward's soft touch, and Ousmane Barro's ability to finish kept the Golden Eagles in the mix for most of the night.

Everything was labored on offense for MU. With only one player who can drive and dish, Pitt overplayed James in the lane realizing that for any kick-out ,MU had no player who could take advantage of an opening and create a scoring opportunity off the dribble. Pitt was able to rotate and recover defensively on any James move to the basket. Save a few nice layups by Barro on DJ passes or a handful of curls from Hayward, Matthews and Fitz the Golden Eagles were unable to get the Panthers' defense on its heels. In short, MU missed McNeal a ton tonight on both ends of the floor.

MU was led by the sublime play of Dan Fitzgerald who had 20 points and four rebounds. Fitz is positively dialed in from deep, hitting 50% of his attempts from downtown (4-8). With McNeal sidelined, Fitz has clearly stepped up his game. Impressive.

James recovered from Wednesday night's lousy shooting performance to score 16 points on 5-for-12 from the floor, including 2-8 from deep. Still, in two Big East Tournament games, DJ was a disappointing 2-17 from three-point territory.

A few other Big East Tournament observations:

• Pitt fans travel VERY WELL to MSG -- nice job by their fan base. I was proud of the MU contingent last night though -- the atmosphere at MSG was fantastic despite the long wait for the opening tip. While that WVU/Louisville game was an instant classic - it needed to end so that we could get to the main event.
• Pitt fans....handled themselves well last night. In general, most Big East fan bases are respectful and smart. With one notable exception which I'll get to.
  
• Cubillan is a nice player -- but he's not a PG. Still, MU has lacked an effective combo guard in past seasons......Cuby is a keeper.
• Lazar Hayward's improvement since I last saw him in-person back in January is remarkable. The kid must be a very hard worker in practice.
• First Novak, now Fitzgerald. If you were a big man with a terrific outside shot -- why go anywhere else?
• James. Look, he's in a shooting slump but I think that his shot selection in the pair of games out here was pretty good. Absent McNeal, the game is much more difficult for DJ -- nobody else on the team can get to the rim off the dribble. He played another good floor game last night, particularly when he was able to find an open man in the lane.
• Notre Dame fans are a$$holes. At least the three turds in my section. The classy Cuse fans in our section took so much abuse from a couple of Domer hoops 'diehards' -- what a joke. Act like you've been there before. Good luck to the 'Cuse next weekend.
• Wesley Matthews is darn near a defensive liability. Heck, he is when the offensive player can put the ball on the floor -- something that surprised me here at MSG.
  
• The Ville/WVU game was awesome.
• MU Alumni Office and Blue and Gold Fund -- nice job this week!
• MU fans -- we need more of you out here in NYC for this event. Keep it in mind for next year.
• As noted in one of the comments below, folks in the crowd generally like Marquette. I noticed this last year too -- the atmosphere at MSG is positive. And its a great place to see a game.
  

much more to come.......

MEDIA UPDATE

• Here's a good thread on the loss and what it might mean. Good job by MUScoop.
  
• Rosiak's recap -- focused on Aaron Gray's big night.
• Chicago Sun Times.
• Associated Press.
• box score.
• PittBlather's recap. (thanks for the outlink/kudos, Chas)
  
• PittBlather's open thread from the game.
• Newsday.
• Pittsbugh Tribune-Review.
• Ken Pomeroy on the performance of fatigued teams.

Warriors neuter the Panthers again

With Jerel McNeal in street clothes and Dominic James cramped up, MU held on for dear life at the end of the game to hold off Pittsburgh 75-71. MU finishes the Big East at 10-6 and will be the 6th seed in the Big East Tournament. The win virtually assures MU's bid to the NCAA Tournament (though few thought that was in jeopardy anyway).

The stars of today's game were still 3 guards...Matthews, James and David Cubillan. James had a career high 10 assists and played in control much of the game until he went out late with leg cramps midway through the second half. Wes Matthews scored 20 points as did Cubillan, many on key three-pointers and clutch free throws in the last minute of play. Cubillan's 20 point effort set a new collegiate high, and included a perfect night from the line (8-8).

Once again, Pitt's Levance Fields was ineffective againt the Golden Eagles tallying five points on just 2-13 from the floor against MU's deep, athletic backcourt. Fields and fellow starting guard Antonio Graves combined to shoot 3-21 against MU tonight with just 2 assists.

Marquette seniors Mike Kinsella and Jamil Lott also gave some much needed lift to Tom Crean's depleted squad. Kinsella hit a 3-pointer early in the game, his first of his career. So two minutes later he decided he would do it again....swish. Todd Rosiak comments on the Kinsella magical final home game. Jamil Lott also added a bucket and a blocked shot in the first half.

Marquette will play either St. John's or UCONN in New York at 9:00pm ET next Wednesday. St. John's will play Providence at home on Sunday. If the Johnnies win, MU will play St. John's on their home court on Wednesday.

Since joining the Big East, Tom Crean's team has taken three of the four meetings against Jamie Dixon's Panthers.

Saturday also marked the 30th anniversary recognition of the 1977 NCAA Champion Marquette Warriors. The entire team returned, a little older and a few pounds heavier, but ready to add to a wonderful day in Milwaukee. As Bo Ellis said at halftime..."we will be Warriors forever." A record crowd of 19,021 were in attendance to see the victory and the re-union of the 1977 Warriors.

• Rosiak's article
• Pittsburgh Post Gazette Recap
• Steve Yanda from the MU Trib on winning without Jerel
  
• Paul Day recaps the game for the MU Trib
  
• Pittsburgh Tribune Review Recap
• AP recap of the game
• Boxscore
• Here is the PittBlather's open thread on the game -- these guys do a great job on their blog.
• A victory thread at MUScoop.
• Andrew Sharos recaps the win for Marquette Hoops.
  

FIRE UP MARQUETTE

Here's a rundown of Saturday's must-do items:


8am -- ESPN Gameday at the Bradley Center. It is free folks, so pack the house. The first 1,000 fans get one of these jolly golden t-shirts. MU will run shuttle buses from campus.

(after conclusion of Gameday .... commence with day-long party and inevitable liver abuse)

7pm -- enter the Bradley Center and put on the nifty 1977 blue commemorative t-shirt.


7:01 pm -- Suck in gut. Stand up straight, and try to locate Erin Andrews. If married, hide your wedding ring and maybe she'll meet you for a beer later.

8pm -- Yell like hell for the good guys as they take the court against the enemy.

9pm -- Honor the 1977 National Champions. Repeat. Honor the 1977 National Champions.

10pm -- Yell like hell for the good guys as they look to earn their 10th conference win.

10:01 pm - - Sit your butt down and watch the Senior Night ceremony. Enthusiastically cheer and for Jamil Lott, Mike Kinsella and Craig Kuphall. THANKS GUYS!

10:30 pm -- Resume partying and liver abuse while talking with buddies about how Erin Andrews will show up at the bar at any minute looking for you.

11:02pm -- The most recent conversation is stricken from your memory when you complete your first Jagerbomb.

***Can't make it to the game? Get with your local alums at one of the many National Marquette Day events around the country.

Calling Uncle Mo'

When MU (22-8, 9-6) and Pitt (25-5, 12-3) renew their budding rivalry on Saturday night, they will do so with much at stake.

On Senior Night with a 10-win conference season within their grasp, the 1977 National Champions in the house, and Selection Sunday looming, the Marquette Golden Eagles have plenty of incentive this weekend. And don't forget - - with a win on Saturday, the Panthers will earn at least a share of the 2006-2007 Big East title. Oh, and this is a national TV game.

MU beat the Panthers in overtime 77-74 earlier this season, part of the team's fast start in the Big East. Yet since their sensational 6-2 start in conference play the Golden Eagles have been grounded for much of the second half of the season, losing four of their last five outings. Slumps can happen when you play one of the two toughest intra-conference schedules. Its time for good ol' Uncle Mo' to visit this young, talented team once again.

The team's inconsistency in conference play is personified by Dominic James. James has been both magic (see MU's win at Pitt) and tragic (see MU's loss at Georgetown) this year. The sophomore PG has only scored in double figures in three of his last seven games, and hasn't shot 50% from the field in a game since MU's win over Seton Hall back in January -- which happens to be the only game in which James made half his shots since early December. Its been a tough sophomore season in the Big East for Dominic James -- yet he is still playing a solid floor game as evidenced by his 1.8/1 A/TO ratio.

Still, James matches up well with the Panthers. In three career games against Pitt, James is averaging 18.3ppg, 4.6 apg, and 4 rpg. In MU's win at Pitt earlier this season, the Panthers' Levance Fields was overmatched against James, fouling out after scoring just two points.

MU's greatest advantage on Saturday night is its quick, athletic, fast backcourt -- the Panthers just don't have the same caliber of athlete at the guard positions. Of course, Pitt has that same physical advantage on the baseline with Aaron Gray, Levon Kendall, Sam Young, Tyrell Biggs and company. Although according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "Pitt starting forward Levon Kendall did not go through a full practice yesterday because of a nagging turf toe injury, and his backup Sam Young is struggling with tendonitis in his knees. Both are expected to play tomorrow night against Marquette."

In his Q/A with Rosiak earlier this week, Crean noted that improved post defense begins with more appreciable backcourt pressure. TC's had plenty of time to focus on that and other gaps in his team's game. After a tough slog through the Big East, Crean's squad enjoyed a full week to prepare for the physical Panthers, time that bodes well for MU IMHO. The extra practice time came at an ideal time for a team that failed to slow down the inside game against teams with similar inside presence (Notre Dame and Georgetown).

Tipoff is scheduled for 8pm CST on ESPN.

MEDIA UPDATE

• John Keegan of the Marquette Tribune previews the season finale.
• The AP on Pitt's fight for a share of the Big East title.
• Here's the MUScoop info header for the game.
  
• Mike Bennett of the Richmond Palladium-Item delivers a column on James and MU.
• Panthers' beat reporter Ray Fittipaldo has an informative Q/A today.
• Rosiak blogs on MU's seniors as they prepare for Senior Night. Ouch. Worse, he ignores Craig Kuphall in his blog -- bogus! Craig is putting in just as much time and effort as the scholarship players and deserves the attention and appreciation as well. THANK YOU CRAIG KUPHALL!
• Marquette Hoops goes in-depth to preview the MU/Pitt rematch.
• PittLive with a profile of Panther's PF Tyrell Biggs.
  

Getting ready for Pitt

Rosiak has a Q/A with TC on his blog......check it out here.

The most interesting part of the interview was TC's response to improving post defense:

We just gave up too much room. These games where we've struggled we've given up too much room. The best form of post defense is your ball pressure and we have not had enough pressure on the ball to make it tough to get it in, and people haven't had to create angles. They've just been able to throw it in. So we need to improve there and it's not a one-man job; it's a team job and that's what we're working on.

Sweet. MU is gonna dial up the backcourt pressure on Saturday......that'll set the right tone for the game, IMHO. Glad to see its a focus area this week in practice. Without it, Pitt will pound MU down low.

Marquette-Pittsburgh: the best new rivalry in the expanded Big East

.....so says this blogger.

Sure the expanded Big East is not yet two full seasons old, but the first three tilts between MU and Pitt have been memorable battles:

1. Aaron Gray's 20 rebound effort in Pitt's late victory at the Pete last season following the Graves/James collision;
2. Aaron Gray morphing into Erin Gray at the Bradley Center late last season to help seal a victory for MU;
3. James making two free throws with 0.9 left in OT to lead MU to a win on the road this season. And don't forget about the Oakland Zoo's dislike for DJ's wink and posturing to the crowd after Sunday's game -- or Aaron Gray's elbow to David Cubillan's head that went unnoticed by the refs earlier in the afternoon;
4. Oh, and how about MU's win over the Panthers in the Sweet 16 round of the 2003 NCAA tournament.

While these teams don't have a long history, each matchup has been intense, passionate, hard-fought and memorable. I challenge you to find another 'new' Big East pairing that's developed the fever pitch we're already accustomed to seeing with the Panthers and Golden Eagles.

Now, I might be in the minority here. The guys at PittBlather don't think its a rivalry just yet, and they make a good case for it.

Jeff Greer at the Pitt News calls it a rivalry.

Marquette fans feel the rivalry emerging too. Check out this thread on MUScoop. And hey, the Pitt fans think its a rivalry .... at least the ones on their message boards. How about this thread on Tom Crean? Here's my favorite post in the thread:

As a Cincinnati fan I have seen plenty of Crean. He is a good coach who gets the most out of his players and puts up a fight in every game even when he has less talent on the floor. He does come off to other team's fans as a sh!thead though. However I have always had the feeling that if other team's fans hate my coach, he is doing a good job.

The Oakland Zoo blog -- check this out!

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Big East's best new rivalry.

Marquette travels to Pittsburgh

The nationally-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers host the Marquette Golden Eagles on Sunday afternoon at The Pete. CBS will broadcast today's game nationally beginning at 2pm CST.

Marquette rolls into town looking for its fourth-stratight victory despite being in the midst of arguably it toughest stretch of the season. The Golden Eagles, 16-4 overall and 3-2 in the Big East, have won three straight after starting the conference season with consecutive losses. Sunday's game is MU's third road game its last four outings. Pittsburgh enters the contest with a record of 17-2 overall and 5-0 in the Big East.

Here's the AP preview.

Here is the GoMarquette preview.

Todd Rosiak previews the game.

Former MU assistant paying big dividends for Pitt

I had the opportunity to work with Mike Rice for several years when he was an assistant at Marquette under former coach Mike Deane. Rice was a terrific guy, fun to talk to and really knew his basketball. He played at Fordham and his father had been the Duquense coach for many years (then the Portland Trailblazers color analyst where I believe he still resides today). He was the one guy on the staff that matched my golfing abilities at the time (I suspect now he has become even better while my game is in the tank).

I lost track of Rice's whereabouts a few years ago until I noticed he surfaced at St. Joe's. Now he's in his first season at Pitt and just landed one of the top players in the country from St. Anthony's in New Jersey.

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review does a nice write-up on "Rice Cakes" in today's edition.