Pittsburgh Numbers Recap

In our Preview, some of the key areas to watch for were Pitt's Offensive Efficiency and their Offensive Rebounding Percentage.

Looking at the Four Factors, we can see how good of a performance it was by Marquette.


Marquette won every single area of the Four Factors. Pittsburgh was the #8 team in the country at offensive rebounding percentage, and we managed to win the battle of Offensive Rebounding and to hold them well below their average. Don't look now, but Marquette has triumphed in this area in four of the last five contests. In addition, Pitt was the #14 team in the country at Offensive Efficiency with a rating of 115.7. For Marquette to hold them to an efficiency of 83.5 shows how well MU did at defense.


The Offensive and Defensive Ratings for our team continue to move in the right directions. As one can see, there was a terrible trend for both areas, which reached a nadir at the UConn game. The team plateaued until the Cincinnati game, and now things are moving properly. Right now, the team is getting better at the end of the season, which is a refreshing change. In addition, despite all of our troubles, we are still rated as the #15 Offense and the #12 Defense in the country by Pomeroy. That's pretty darn good, folks.

Final Season Projections

• Pomeroy still projects a final conference record of 12-6, meaning one loss in our last five conference games.
• Our conference statistics project a final record of 11.8 - 6.2, meaning one to two (but closer to one) losses in our final games
• Based on how we've been playing the last five games, we project to a final record of 13-5, meaning we run the table.
  

Last time we did the projections, the view was for the team to lose anywhere from 0-3 games. Based on how the team continues to improve, our current forecast is consistently only 0-1 more losses.

Individual Player Ratings


Fresh off of a week in which Cracked Sidewalks said that Jerel McNeal was not a winning player during conference play, McNeal ended up as the statistical stud of the game. Barro, of course, was second on the list, with other noteworthy contributions by Cubillan, Matthews, and James. Interestingly enough, Lazar Hayward ended up with a negative net contribution, as Sam Young seemed to win the head-to-head battle and the perceived lead for "Most Improved Conference Player". Finally, although I was reasonably sure that Mbakwe ended up with 38 points, 19 rebounds, and 8 blocked shots in his eight minutes of play, the box score didn't seem to reflect that information. Poor Trevor starts off his college career with a negative net game. May this be his last!

All the numbers are starting to point in the right direction. Let's hope that the momentum continues and we win big against St. Johns on Wednesday.

Marquette hosts Pittsburgh

UPDATED
Fresh off an impressive road win over Seton Hall, Marquette (17-6, 7-5) returns home on Friday to host the gritty Pittsburgh Panthers (19-5, 7-4). Tipoff is scheduled for 8pm on ESPN.

Jamie Dixon, who should be the mid-season favorite for Big East coach of the year, has his Panthers riding high despite losing two key starters early in the season. Absent the talented duo of Levance Fields and Mike Cook, Dixon's crew has won three of their last four outings, including an 82-62 thrashing of Providence on Tuesday night.

Dixon will get half of that injured duo back on Friday - -point guard Levance "Don't Tase Me Bro" Fields will play against MU. That'll be an enormous boost to the Panthers who have resorted to playing senior sharpshooter Ronald Ramon at the point, which marginalized his effectiveness as one of the nation's top three-point threats. Fields has been out since breaking his foot on December 29 against Dayton. Fields missed more time for the foot injury than he did for punching an off-duty police officer, allegedly grabbing for the officer's weapon, and ultimately being tased in an incident outside a strip club last September.

In the absence of Cook, Sam Young is turning in an All-Big East caliber season. The 6'7" forward has blossomed in his junior campaign, pouring in 18 points and grabbing seven boards per outing. Young's offensive game is diverse as he is nailing 40% of this attempts from deep, yet leads the Panthers in free throws attempted. Lazar Hayward figures to draw the tough assignment to slow down Young.

As good as Young has been, MU's toughest matchup figures to be DeJuan Blair, the manchild on the frontline for the Panthers. Blair averages a double double in conference play, and the numbers below show how outstanding his performance this year has been. Led by Blair and Young, the Panthers are one of the best rebounding teams in the league.

With Fields back in the mix, MU will need to hit the floor with the same toughness and energy we saw in Newark earlier in the week. Marquette summoned up the moxie and energy that was missing for much of the Big East season as they silenced the chippy Pirates. The Golden Eagles dominated the Pirates on the glass, held them to just 38% shooting, and had an impressive 13 assists on just 30 made field goals.

Crean's squad played .500 ball during its recent four-game stretch which included three games on the road. Record aside, Marquette showed flashes of becoming the team which dominated Wisconsin and nearly topped Duke in both the Notre Dame loss and the Seton Hall win. In fact, some fans have made it back to Jonestown. If the Golden Eagles expect to make a charge for one of the four first-round byes in the Big East Tournament, a win over the Panthers -- who lead MU by 1/2 a game - - is a must.

MU will honor the 2003 Final Four team at Friday's game, with many former players and coaches expected to be in attendance. In addition, Converse will be filming a TV commercial at the 12-minute mark of the first half. Both activities, combined with a Friday night game, are sure to have the crowd in a raucous mood. Could there be a Dwyane Wade appearance to further pump up the rowdiness?

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Pittsburgh. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• 76% - Pomeroy predicts a 76% chance of victory for Marquette
• 14 - Pitt is the #14 team in the country at Offensive Efficiency
• Think Pitt is winning games with their defense? Their defense is #44 in the country, which is decent but not as strong as their offense.
  
• However, three of Pitt's last six opponents have been held to low Efficiencies
  
• Marquette is the #16 team in the country at Offensive Efficiency and the #17 team in the country at Defensive Efficiency. Will we be able to shut Pitt down?
  
• 8 - Pitt is the #8 team in the country at Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)
• The Panthers secure 41.1% of all potential Offensive Rebounds to help bolster that offensive efficiency
  
• 265 - Pitt's national rank at Pace
• Pitt averages one of the slowest paces in the country for games at just under 65 possessions / game
• 45 - The jersey number of DeJuan Blair
• Blair is the fifth best Offensive Rebounder in the country. He grabs over 17% of all potential ORs.
• Blair is also #35 in the country at grabbing steals during games, at a steal on 4.6% of all possessions
• For comparison, McNeal is only at #50 in the country
  

In summary, Pitt's defense is decent. However, the Panthers are really winning a lot of games based on a slowed down pace and high offensive efficiency. A great deal of this offensive efficiency is due to Pitt's ability to crash the offensive boards, especially by DeJuan Blair. Let's watch for Marquette to come out fired up on the boards, push the pace, and fulfill the prediction of a Marquette victory.

As for Levance, well.....



Media Updates

• GoMarquette.com game notes/preview
• The Associated Press on Fields' return to action
• Rosiak on the return of the Final Four team
• Scout.com's game preview
• PittBlather is thrilled to have Fields back in action
• Big East Basketball Report with a great preview of the game.
  

This post created jointly by NYWarrior and Henry Sugar

Try, try again

Apologies for the less-than-timely update on last night's loss.....back to back late nights with work sandwiched in between can get in the way of blogging (sadly).

Anyway, Pitt finally broke through and topped Marquette this season with a 89-79 win in the quarterfinals of the Big East Tournament. With the loss, MU falls to 24-9 on the season and now looks to Selection Sunday. According to the Bracket Project figures, MU could be slotted as a dreaded 5 seed. Gimme a 6, please, gimme a 6!

Back to the game. Aaron Gray dominated the lane last night ending up with 22 points and 10 boards (six on the offensive end). Honestly it felt like he scored 40 points last night-- MU had no answer for the assertive Pitt center.

Pitt's efficient offense extended beyond Gray's big night -- I'd love to see the shot chart for the Panthers. I'd guess that in the first half, 70%-80% of the Panthers points came from inside the lane (or at least from within 12 feet of the basket). Things didn't seem to change much in the second half as the Panthers displayed new-found aggressiveness in attacking the basket with just about every player on the floor. For the game, Pitt shot nearly 50% from the field -- and seemed to do just about anything they wanted to do offensively.

Despite the Panthers' effectiveness on offense, MU was able to stay within striking distance for most of the night. With the Panthers overplaying every James drive, MU's offensive rhythm was choppy at best but Dan Fitzgerald's hot hand, Lazar Hayward's soft touch, and Ousmane Barro's ability to finish kept the Golden Eagles in the mix for most of the night.

Everything was labored on offense for MU. With only one player who can drive and dish, Pitt overplayed James in the lane realizing that for any kick-out ,MU had no player who could take advantage of an opening and create a scoring opportunity off the dribble. Pitt was able to rotate and recover defensively on any James move to the basket. Save a few nice layups by Barro on DJ passes or a handful of curls from Hayward, Matthews and Fitz the Golden Eagles were unable to get the Panthers' defense on its heels. In short, MU missed McNeal a ton tonight on both ends of the floor.

MU was led by the sublime play of Dan Fitzgerald who had 20 points and four rebounds. Fitz is positively dialed in from deep, hitting 50% of his attempts from downtown (4-8). With McNeal sidelined, Fitz has clearly stepped up his game. Impressive.

James recovered from Wednesday night's lousy shooting performance to score 16 points on 5-for-12 from the floor, including 2-8 from deep. Still, in two Big East Tournament games, DJ was a disappointing 2-17 from three-point territory.

A few other Big East Tournament observations:

• Pitt fans travel VERY WELL to MSG -- nice job by their fan base. I was proud of the MU contingent last night though -- the atmosphere at MSG was fantastic despite the long wait for the opening tip. While that WVU/Louisville game was an instant classic - it needed to end so that we could get to the main event.
• Pitt fans....handled themselves well last night. In general, most Big East fan bases are respectful and smart. With one notable exception which I'll get to.
  
• Cubillan is a nice player -- but he's not a PG. Still, MU has lacked an effective combo guard in past seasons......Cuby is a keeper.
• Lazar Hayward's improvement since I last saw him in-person back in January is remarkable. The kid must be a very hard worker in practice.
• First Novak, now Fitzgerald. If you were a big man with a terrific outside shot -- why go anywhere else?
• James. Look, he's in a shooting slump but I think that his shot selection in the pair of games out here was pretty good. Absent McNeal, the game is much more difficult for DJ -- nobody else on the team can get to the rim off the dribble. He played another good floor game last night, particularly when he was able to find an open man in the lane.
• Notre Dame fans are a$$holes. At least the three turds in my section. The classy Cuse fans in our section took so much abuse from a couple of Domer hoops 'diehards' -- what a joke. Act like you've been there before. Good luck to the 'Cuse next weekend.
• Wesley Matthews is darn near a defensive liability. Heck, he is when the offensive player can put the ball on the floor -- something that surprised me here at MSG.
  
• The Ville/WVU game was awesome.
• MU Alumni Office and Blue and Gold Fund -- nice job this week!
• MU fans -- we need more of you out here in NYC for this event. Keep it in mind for next year.
• As noted in one of the comments below, folks in the crowd generally like Marquette. I noticed this last year too -- the atmosphere at MSG is positive. And its a great place to see a game.
  

much more to come.......

MEDIA UPDATE

• Here's a good thread on the loss and what it might mean. Good job by MUScoop.
  
• Rosiak's recap -- focused on Aaron Gray's big night.
• Chicago Sun Times.
• Associated Press.
• box score.
• PittBlather's recap. (thanks for the outlink/kudos, Chas)
  
• PittBlather's open thread from the game.
• Newsday.
• Pittsbugh Tribune-Review.
• Ken Pomeroy on the performance of fatigued teams.

Warriors neuter the Panthers again

With Jerel McNeal in street clothes and Dominic James cramped up, MU held on for dear life at the end of the game to hold off Pittsburgh 75-71. MU finishes the Big East at 10-6 and will be the 6th seed in the Big East Tournament. The win virtually assures MU's bid to the NCAA Tournament (though few thought that was in jeopardy anyway).

The stars of today's game were still 3 guards...Matthews, James and David Cubillan. James had a career high 10 assists and played in control much of the game until he went out late with leg cramps midway through the second half. Wes Matthews scored 20 points as did Cubillan, many on key three-pointers and clutch free throws in the last minute of play. Cubillan's 20 point effort set a new collegiate high, and included a perfect night from the line (8-8).

Once again, Pitt's Levance Fields was ineffective againt the Golden Eagles tallying five points on just 2-13 from the floor against MU's deep, athletic backcourt. Fields and fellow starting guard Antonio Graves combined to shoot 3-21 against MU tonight with just 2 assists.

Marquette seniors Mike Kinsella and Jamil Lott also gave some much needed lift to Tom Crean's depleted squad. Kinsella hit a 3-pointer early in the game, his first of his career. So two minutes later he decided he would do it again....swish. Todd Rosiak comments on the Kinsella magical final home game. Jamil Lott also added a bucket and a blocked shot in the first half.

Marquette will play either St. John's or UCONN in New York at 9:00pm ET next Wednesday. St. John's will play Providence at home on Sunday. If the Johnnies win, MU will play St. John's on their home court on Wednesday.

Since joining the Big East, Tom Crean's team has taken three of the four meetings against Jamie Dixon's Panthers.

Saturday also marked the 30th anniversary recognition of the 1977 NCAA Champion Marquette Warriors. The entire team returned, a little older and a few pounds heavier, but ready to add to a wonderful day in Milwaukee. As Bo Ellis said at halftime..."we will be Warriors forever." A record crowd of 19,021 were in attendance to see the victory and the re-union of the 1977 Warriors.

• Rosiak's article
• Pittsburgh Post Gazette Recap
• Steve Yanda from the MU Trib on winning without Jerel
  
• Paul Day recaps the game for the MU Trib
  
• Pittsburgh Tribune Review Recap
• AP recap of the game
• Boxscore
• Here is the PittBlather's open thread on the game -- these guys do a great job on their blog.
• A victory thread at MUScoop.
• Andrew Sharos recaps the win for Marquette Hoops.
  

FIRE UP MARQUETTE

Here's a rundown of Saturday's must-do items:


8am -- ESPN Gameday at the Bradley Center. It is free folks, so pack the house. The first 1,000 fans get one of these jolly golden t-shirts. MU will run shuttle buses from campus.

(after conclusion of Gameday .... commence with day-long party and inevitable liver abuse)

7pm -- enter the Bradley Center and put on the nifty 1977 blue commemorative t-shirt.


7:01 pm -- Suck in gut. Stand up straight, and try to locate Erin Andrews. If married, hide your wedding ring and maybe she'll meet you for a beer later.

8pm -- Yell like hell for the good guys as they take the court against the enemy.

9pm -- Honor the 1977 National Champions. Repeat. Honor the 1977 National Champions.

10pm -- Yell like hell for the good guys as they look to earn their 10th conference win.

10:01 pm - - Sit your butt down and watch the Senior Night ceremony. Enthusiastically cheer and for Jamil Lott, Mike Kinsella and Craig Kuphall. THANKS GUYS!

10:30 pm -- Resume partying and liver abuse while talking with buddies about how Erin Andrews will show up at the bar at any minute looking for you.

11:02pm -- The most recent conversation is stricken from your memory when you complete your first Jagerbomb.

***Can't make it to the game? Get with your local alums at one of the many National Marquette Day events around the country.

Calling Uncle Mo'

When MU (22-8, 9-6) and Pitt (25-5, 12-3) renew their budding rivalry on Saturday night, they will do so with much at stake.

On Senior Night with a 10-win conference season within their grasp, the 1977 National Champions in the house, and Selection Sunday looming, the Marquette Golden Eagles have plenty of incentive this weekend. And don't forget - - with a win on Saturday, the Panthers will earn at least a share of the 2006-2007 Big East title. Oh, and this is a national TV game.

MU beat the Panthers in overtime 77-74 earlier this season, part of the team's fast start in the Big East. Yet since their sensational 6-2 start in conference play the Golden Eagles have been grounded for much of the second half of the season, losing four of their last five outings. Slumps can happen when you play one of the two toughest intra-conference schedules. Its time for good ol' Uncle Mo' to visit this young, talented team once again.

The team's inconsistency in conference play is personified by Dominic James. James has been both magic (see MU's win at Pitt) and tragic (see MU's loss at Georgetown) this year. The sophomore PG has only scored in double figures in three of his last seven games, and hasn't shot 50% from the field in a game since MU's win over Seton Hall back in January -- which happens to be the only game in which James made half his shots since early December. Its been a tough sophomore season in the Big East for Dominic James -- yet he is still playing a solid floor game as evidenced by his 1.8/1 A/TO ratio.

Still, James matches up well with the Panthers. In three career games against Pitt, James is averaging 18.3ppg, 4.6 apg, and 4 rpg. In MU's win at Pitt earlier this season, the Panthers' Levance Fields was overmatched against James, fouling out after scoring just two points.

MU's greatest advantage on Saturday night is its quick, athletic, fast backcourt -- the Panthers just don't have the same caliber of athlete at the guard positions. Of course, Pitt has that same physical advantage on the baseline with Aaron Gray, Levon Kendall, Sam Young, Tyrell Biggs and company. Although according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, "Pitt starting forward Levon Kendall did not go through a full practice yesterday because of a nagging turf toe injury, and his backup Sam Young is struggling with tendonitis in his knees. Both are expected to play tomorrow night against Marquette."

In his Q/A with Rosiak earlier this week, Crean noted that improved post defense begins with more appreciable backcourt pressure. TC's had plenty of time to focus on that and other gaps in his team's game. After a tough slog through the Big East, Crean's squad enjoyed a full week to prepare for the physical Panthers, time that bodes well for MU IMHO. The extra practice time came at an ideal time for a team that failed to slow down the inside game against teams with similar inside presence (Notre Dame and Georgetown).

Tipoff is scheduled for 8pm CST on ESPN.

MEDIA UPDATE

• John Keegan of the Marquette Tribune previews the season finale.
• The AP on Pitt's fight for a share of the Big East title.
• Here's the MUScoop info header for the game.
  
• Mike Bennett of the Richmond Palladium-Item delivers a column on James and MU.
• Panthers' beat reporter Ray Fittipaldo has an informative Q/A today.
• Rosiak blogs on MU's seniors as they prepare for Senior Night. Ouch. Worse, he ignores Craig Kuphall in his blog -- bogus! Craig is putting in just as much time and effort as the scholarship players and deserves the attention and appreciation as well. THANK YOU CRAIG KUPHALL!
• Marquette Hoops goes in-depth to preview the MU/Pitt rematch.
• PittLive with a profile of Panther's PF Tyrell Biggs.
  

Getting ready for Pitt

Rosiak has a Q/A with TC on his blog......check it out here.

The most interesting part of the interview was TC's response to improving post defense:

We just gave up too much room. These games where we've struggled we've given up too much room. The best form of post defense is your ball pressure and we have not had enough pressure on the ball to make it tough to get it in, and people haven't had to create angles. They've just been able to throw it in. So we need to improve there and it's not a one-man job; it's a team job and that's what we're working on.

Sweet. MU is gonna dial up the backcourt pressure on Saturday......that'll set the right tone for the game, IMHO. Glad to see its a focus area this week in practice. Without it, Pitt will pound MU down low.

Marquette-Pittsburgh: the best new rivalry in the expanded Big East

.....so says this blogger.

Sure the expanded Big East is not yet two full seasons old, but the first three tilts between MU and Pitt have been memorable battles:

1. Aaron Gray's 20 rebound effort in Pitt's late victory at the Pete last season following the Graves/James collision;
2. Aaron Gray morphing into Erin Gray at the Bradley Center late last season to help seal a victory for MU;
3. James making two free throws with 0.9 left in OT to lead MU to a win on the road this season. And don't forget about the Oakland Zoo's dislike for DJ's wink and posturing to the crowd after Sunday's game -- or Aaron Gray's elbow to David Cubillan's head that went unnoticed by the refs earlier in the afternoon;
4. Oh, and how about MU's win over the Panthers in the Sweet 16 round of the 2003 NCAA tournament.

While these teams don't have a long history, each matchup has been intense, passionate, hard-fought and memorable. I challenge you to find another 'new' Big East pairing that's developed the fever pitch we're already accustomed to seeing with the Panthers and Golden Eagles.

Now, I might be in the minority here. The guys at PittBlather don't think its a rivalry just yet, and they make a good case for it.

Jeff Greer at the Pitt News calls it a rivalry.

Marquette fans feel the rivalry emerging too. Check out this thread on MUScoop. And hey, the Pitt fans think its a rivalry .... at least the ones on their message boards. How about this thread on Tom Crean? Here's my favorite post in the thread:

As a Cincinnati fan I have seen plenty of Crean. He is a good coach who gets the most out of his players and puts up a fight in every game even when he has less talent on the floor. He does come off to other team's fans as a sh!thead though. However I have always had the feeling that if other team's fans hate my coach, he is doing a good job.

The Oakland Zoo blog -- check this out!

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Big East's best new rivalry.

Marquette travels to Pittsburgh

The nationally-ranked Pittsburgh Panthers host the Marquette Golden Eagles on Sunday afternoon at The Pete. CBS will broadcast today's game nationally beginning at 2pm CST.

Marquette rolls into town looking for its fourth-stratight victory despite being in the midst of arguably it toughest stretch of the season. The Golden Eagles, 16-4 overall and 3-2 in the Big East, have won three straight after starting the conference season with consecutive losses. Sunday's game is MU's third road game its last four outings. Pittsburgh enters the contest with a record of 17-2 overall and 5-0 in the Big East.

Here's the AP preview.

Here is the GoMarquette preview.

Todd Rosiak previews the game.

Former MU assistant paying big dividends for Pitt

I had the opportunity to work with Mike Rice for several years when he was an assistant at Marquette under former coach Mike Deane. Rice was a terrific guy, fun to talk to and really knew his basketball. He played at Fordham and his father had been the Duquense coach for many years (then the Portland Trailblazers color analyst where I believe he still resides today). He was the one guy on the staff that matched my golfing abilities at the time (I suspect now he has become even better while my game is in the tank).

I lost track of Rice's whereabouts a few years ago until I noticed he surfaced at St. Joe's. Now he's in his first season at Pitt and just landed one of the top players in the country from St. Anthony's in New Jersey.

The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review does a nice write-up on "Rice Cakes" in today's edition.