2012-2013 Predictions

Anything interesting happening today?

The college hoops basketball season always takes FOREVER. However, Marquette basketball is finally back. Tonight, Marquette takes on Ohio State in the Carrier Classic, on the deck of the USS Yorkdown in South Carolina. Game time is 6 pm on NBC Sports. This entire thing is amazing.

Pictured: The awesomeness of today

The start of the season means that it is yet again time for the Cracked Sidewalks staff to take a turn at prognosticating what the new season of Marquette basketball has in store for us. Before we get on with the annual event, we can turn back the clock to predictions of the past.

2006-07 CS staff said 23.8-7.2 (9.8-6.2); actual record 23-8 (10-6)
2007-08 CS staff said 23.2-6.8 (12.5-5.5); actual record 22-8 (11-7)
2008-09 CS staff said 23-8 (11.4-6.6); actual record 23-8 (12-6)
2009-10 CS staff said 16.5-13.5 (7.8-10.2); actual record 20-10 (11-7)
2010-11 CS staff said 21.2-9.8 (11.1-6.9); actual record 18-13 (9-9)
2011-12 CS staff said 23-8 (12.3-5.7); actual record 25-6 (14-4)

Despite being more positive than previous years, we underestimated how good MU was going to be last year. This year there is a little more bearishness with an overall prediction of 21.5-9.5 (11.7-6.3), so let's hope for more of the same with this year's predictions.

Opponent	Location	Rob	Tim	Kevin	John	Jamie	Alan
Ohio State	N	L	L	L	L	W	W
Maui Classic (Colgate)	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Southeastern LA	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Maui Classic (Butler)	N	W	W	W	W	W	W
Maui Classic (UNC / Miss St)	N	L	L	L	W	L	L
Maui Classic (TBD)	N	L	L	W	L	W	W
UMBC	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Florida	A	L	L	L	L	L	L
Wisconsin	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Savannah State	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Green Bay	A	W	W	W	W	W	W
LSU	H	L	W	W	W	W	W
North Carolina Central	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Connecticut	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown	H	L	W	W	L	W	W
Pittsburgh	A	L	W	L	L	L	L
Seton Hall	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Cincinnati	A	L	L	L	L	L	L
Providence	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
USF	H	W	L	W	W	W	W
Louisville	A	L	L	L	L	L	W
USF	A	L	W	L	W	L	L
DePaul	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Georgetown	A	L	L	L	L	L	L
Pittsburgh	H	W	W	W	W	W	W
Seton Hall	A	W	W	W	W	W	W
Villanova	A	L	W	W	W	L	W
Syracuse	H	W	W	W	W	L	W
Notre Dame	H	W	W	L	W	W	W
Rutgers	A	W	W	W	L	W	L
St. Johns	A	W	L	L	W	L	W
	Consensus	Rob	Tim	Kevin	John	Jamie	Alan
Wins	21.5	19	22	21	22	21	24
Losses	9.5	12	9	10	9	10	7
Conference Wins	11.7	11	13	11	12	10	13
Conference Losses	6.3	7	5	7	6	8	5

Rating the Raters

Welcome back, Dr Blackheart. Here is the good doctor's latest guest column -- a rating of the raters, he calls it.

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As my post-season NCAA hoops withdrawal kicks in, I decided to look for a back edition of Sports Illustrated in my private library. No, not the “Swimsuit Issue” but the November 22nd “College Basketball” preview. It was such a crazy season of “The Unexpected” that I wanted to look back and see how well SI did in predicting the 2010-11 season. I remember this edition arrived in the mail just before I hopped on a plane to Kansas City for the CBE where the unranked Warriors were to face SI’s #1, #3 or #14 ranked teams in a pre-Thanksgiving tournament.

MU played well against the favored competition back then, but I was left with a lot of uncertainty around their experience, roles and identity. As it wound up, this uncertainty spread to all of college basketball and lasted down to the last half of the championship game. Reflecting, I figured that it was worth a look-see to determine how well all the mainstream experts did predicting this crazy season. After all, this is what we pay them to do—to help us average fans separate our irrational loyalties from the facts. So I dug up their preseason to final rankings for a postmortem face-off (Note: I used each poll’s final rankings to compare to preseason--whether the poll’s last ranking was at the end of the regular season or post-NCAA’s.)

So, how well did these experts test out? The answer: Their test scores needed to be curved and they all seemingly copied off of each other. Here are some quick snippets of their performances:

• No pundit had the eventual national champion in their Top 25’s. Sports Illustrated didn’t even have UCONN in their preseason “Field of 68”.
• All graded out around 57% on the pre to post test overall…including the pre-post Top 25’s.
• Each had a C/D grade for the Elite 8’s being ranked in the Top 25 preseason…and a C- for predicting closely for the Round of 32.
• Virginia Tech, purported to be the last team out of the Big Dance on Selection Sunday, was the one team the experts had in their Top 25’s who did not make the Big Dance.
• Most of the Top 10 teams in each poll’s final ranking were at least listed in their preseason Top 25’s.
• The coaches (USA Today/ESPN) were no better or worse than the media.

So who won out? Basically, they were all subterranean on their “expert” prognostications. To try to get to some conclusion, however, I created an index based on the average score of all the raters for each element and in total. So, a 1.00=average of the five raters. This provides a relative score for each versus the other to determine if any one stands out. Well, that didn’t help much as they all appear to be guilty of “group think” as their picks were almost the same. Sports Illustrated did score a bit better—and I mean a ‘lil bit—so I will have to crown them the “The King of the Misfits”-- although they only were able to get 45 out of the “Field of 68” right preseason—or 66%.

So what’s the take away from all of this? Archie the Bartender is probably a more reliable source of expertise. Or, even better, strike up a conversation with your local librarian.

At the mid-season point, how did we do on predictions

Here we are 16 games into the 2010-2011 season with 16 guaranteed games left to play. So how are we doing at Cracked Sidewalks on our predictions from way back in November? Remarkably well, thank you very much.

We stand currently with an 11-5 record which was darn close to the consensus average from the 8 member team of CS. The average at Cracked Sidewalks was 11.625 wins and 4.25 losses at this point.

Only Tim K. correctly picked an 11-5 record at this point while six of us were slightly optimistic at 12-4. No one, however, predicted all 16 games correctly. The Wisconsin game was the most consistent bugaboo that threw the team off. Tim B., John, Jamie, BMA and Steve all missed just one game thus far.

The team originally picked 11 conference wins back in November with a low of 9 (Kevin) and a high of 13 (BMA / John).

Cracked Sidewalks 2010-2011 Predictions

Welcome to the annual Cracked Sidewalks predictions!

(if you saw something pop up already, you weren't going crazy. We did post this yesterday and removed it because other MU things were going on with the signing period... and then life got in the way of blogging those other things. Anyways, Marquette announced the NLI signings of Juan Anderson and Derrick Wilson. Rosiak also had stories on the signings for Wilson and Anderson.

Also, for your must-read features, check out Rosiak's additional feature on Wilson's commitment, as well as today's article previewing MU that focuses on Jimmy F. Butler)

Where were we? The season opener is TOMORROW, so here is our set of blogger predictions for the year. Before doing that, let's look at the track record for the past few years.

• 2007-2008 - Cracked Sidewalks consensus was 23.3 - 6.8 (12.5 - 5.5). Actual record was 22-8 (11-7), making us 1.3 games more optimistic than the actual results.
• 2008-2009 - Average prediction was for a record of 23 - 8 (11.4 - 6.6). Actual record was 23-8 (12-6), which puts us right on target. (well, except for MU exceeding expectations until the DJ injury down the stretch)
• And... last year's predictions were here. Blogger consensus was final record of 16.5-13.5 (7.8 - 10.2), making us 3.5 games more pessimistic than the actual results. Boy was that off.

And now for this year's predictions, with the Cracked Sidewalks consensus at 21.3 - 9.8 (11.1 - 6.9). Reasoning is below the table.

Date	Opponent	Location	Rob	Tim	Kevin	John	Jamie	bma	Steve	Tim K
Nov 12	Prairie View A&M	Home	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Nov 14	Bucknell	Home	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Nov 16	UW-Green Bay	Home	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Nov 20	South Dakota	Home	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Nov 22	Duke	Kansas City, MO	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L
Nov 23	Kansas State / Gonzaga	Kansas City, MO	W	L	W	L	L	L	L	L
Nov 27	UW-Milwaukee	US Cellular Arena	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dec 4	Longwood	Home	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dec 7	Texas A&M Corpus Christi	Home	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dec 11	Wisconsin	Home	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dec 18	Centenary	Home	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dec 21	Mississippi Valley State	Home	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Dec 29	Vanderbilt	Nashville, TN	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L
Jan 1	West Virginia	Home	L	W	L	W	W	W	W	L
Jan 5	Rutgers	Piscataway, NJ	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Jan 8	Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh, PA	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L
Jan 10	Notre Dame	Home	W	W	W	L	W	W	W	W
Jan 15	Louisville	Louisville, KY	L	W	L	L	L	W	L	L
Jan 18	DePaul	Home	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Jan 22	Notre Dame	South Bend, IN	W	L	L	W	L	L	L	W
Jan 25	Connecticut	Home	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Jan 29	Syracuse	Home	W	L	L	W	L	L	L	L
Feb 2	Villanova	Philadelphia, PA	L	L	L	L	L	L	L	L
Feb 9	South Florida	Tampa, FL	L	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Feb 13	Georgetown	Washington, DC	L	L	L	W	L	L	W	L
Feb 15	St. John's	Home	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Feb 19	Seton Hall	Home	W	L	W	W	W	W	W	W
Feb 24	Connecticut	Hartford, CT	L	W	L	L	L	W	L	L
Feb 27	Providence	Home	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Mar 2	Cincinnati	Home	W	W	W	W	W	W	W	W
Mar 5	Seton Hall	Newark, NJ	W	L	L	W	L	W	W	W
		Consensus	Rob	Tim	Kevin	John	Jamie	bma	Steve	Tim K
	Wins	21.3	20	21	20	23	20	23	22	21
	Losses	9.8	11	10	11	8	11	8	9	10
	Conference Wins	11.1	10	11	9	13	10	13	12	11
	Conference Losses	6.9	8	7	9	5	8	5	6	7

2010-2011 Predictions

John
The two basic questions for me are "how quickly will MU gel with so many young players?," and "how good is the Big East this year?" I was thrilled to see the love from FoxSports when they listed the top dozen backcourts this year - good news is that we are on the list, bad news is that we play five of the other 11 and none of them at the Bradley Center. I believe the first four of those are losses (Duke Nov. 22, Vandy Dec. 29, Pitt Jan. 8 and Nova Feb. 2), but I believe we will steadily improve and break through at Georgetown Feb. 13 for a huge win. The only other losses I see are the consolation game in Kansas City (certainly a home game for K-State but Gonzaga would be tough to with a young team playing it's 6th game together), and Hartford is still awfully tough despite Jimmy's heroics last year.

While I certainly believe we win at Rutgers January 5, I'm worried that going from there to Pitt and then having only one day rest before facing Notre Dame at home could result in dead legs that leave us with another early 3-game losing streak (Pitt-ND-Lville), but with that behind us I believe we go on a roll the rest of the season including getting ND back in their place, and fly into the tournament on an 11-2 run that will result in another good seed for a team that will this year be deep enough to not die at the Big East tournament or the subsequent NCAA trip.

Tim
With the season upon us, expectations for the latest vintage of the Marquette Warriors are rising. And that's just fine. 21 wins overall and 11 conference wins would mark a fine regular season and I think the optimism is warranted. Heck, 21 wins might not be ambitious enough when you consider the (albeit youthful) talent influx. While the team only has a handful of players who have logged significant minutes at the D1 level, roster turnover is a given in college ball and that's no reason to talk down expectations. Fact is that MU's roster is deeper now than it was last season and the replacement talent in the backcourt, where MU must replace two starters, is far greater than the talent that departed. With good health this past off-season across the board (a rarity at MU in recent years) and more talent up and down the roster, I expect the team to play consistent ball throughout the year.

Tim K
I didn't go outside of the box too much with my predictions, but almost every conference game along with a few others (Bucky, Vandy) made me think twice about my pick. Last season I would never have predicted a 5th place finish. This season, it's obvious that a 5th place finish is completely reasonable - but again, there are so many unknowns about this team that's it's hard to know where we'll finish. Although we competed in pretty much every game last season (home and away), I can't bring myself to pick a road win over any of the top dogs. I have us only losing twice at the BC all season, although I wouldn't be surprised if UConn, St. John's, or Wisconsin were able to knock us off at home. Although ND is a tough place to play, I really see no reason why we lose to the Irish this season. My heart can't take another season like last one's, though, so hopefully we can win in regulation by more than 3 points a few times this year.

bma
Not much to say really. I think the Big East is going to be down this year, more so than years past. I don't think Louisville and Notre Dame are going to be as good as most people think they will, I don't think Seton Hall and St. John's are going to improve the way most people think they will, I think DePaul and Rutgers will still be downright awful. This schedule, with a few minor exceptions, sets up very favorably for MU.

Steve
If this year is like the past, I'll probably be on the optimistic end of the predictions. Here's the bottom line up front: 22-9 overall, 12-6 / 5th place in the league.Prairie View A&M, Bucknell, UWGB, South Dakota, UWM, Longwood, TAMU-CC, Centenary and MVSU should give us 9 early wins with plenty of gripes about the schedule and deep bench minutes to go around. Beating Duke would be an upset of historic proportions (Assuming they're still #1, it would be our first regular season win over a #1 ranked team--our only other #1 win was against UK in the 2003 tournament). Gonzaga and Kansas State are almost as tough as Duke so coming home with a win from KC will be extremely tough. MU should hold serve against Wisconsin on the home court. To wrap up the non-conference slate, MU is probably better than Vanderbilt anyplace in the world other than Memorial Gym, with its goofy raised floor and end-court benches (Vandy holds a 125-9 non-conference record since 1990).

Of the home conference games, only Syracuse and perhaps WVU will have a strong chance at beating us at home. Call it a split, beating WVU in the opener, and losing to the Orange. I don't see Cincy, SJU or Seton Hall as improved enough to take road wins at MU. Providence and DePaul should be fighting to avoid 16th.Of the other crossover games, Both Notre Dame and Uconn present challenges and opportunities. On paper we're probably better than Notre Dame, but have struggled in South Bend (and in Milwaukee last year). On paper, Uconn has more talent, but rallying a team through adversity doesn't seem to be a strength of Calhoun. We should get one win from both foes. Villanova, Pitt and Louisville will rightly be favored on their home courts. That leaves road wins for use at Rutgers, USF, and Seton Hall, and a prediction of an upset over Georgetown.

Kevin
Boy, this is tough. I've seen one scrimmage and one game versus D3 talent. Judging by that, we're going undefeated. Knowing better, I think we go 20-11, 9-9 in the Big East.I divide our schedule into 3 parts:

Non-conference - we have 3 big games, all away from home, Duke. K-State/Zags, and Vandy. I think we go 1-2 there. The cupcakes, we eat.

BE Home games - I think we go 7-2, with losses to WVU because the home crowd will be hungover 10am Jan 1st, and we'll continue to never be able to beat Syracuse just because .. and because that game is National Marquette Day, and that's a big fat L.BE Away games - 2-7, with wins @Rutgers and @USF.

Jamie
Bottom line, we go as far as our point guards quality of play. That is the one area that scares me the most. Will Junior be what we thought he would be or is he a few years off? Can Reggie Smith step in and fill a void? Does Vander Blue slide over and play some point? Or is the plan that Dwight Buycks is option 1A, 1B, and 1C? The Warriors finally have some passable size with Otule and Crowder and maybe even Gardner and Williams, though I don't expect big minutes from either this year once the meat of the schedule arrives. MU's strength will be the plethora of athletic wings with DJO, Vander, Fulce, Jones, etc.

But back to that thing about the point guard. As deep as we are on the overall roster, my concerns remain youth and play at the point guard position. Maybe Buzz surprises us all and Buycks is the guy. To be that special player, he will have needed to improve his handle considerably since last Summer. He also needs to back off of his shoot first mentality. Can he do it?Bottom line, MU goes 20-11 overall and 11-7 in conference play. If Buycks or any of the guards can play the point position well enough, then MU could expand that to 22 wins and a 13-5 record, but for now I'll go the conservative route. That's my prediction...NCAA berth definitely a possibility but need to pick up a few marquee wins. 10-8 probably won't do it, 11-7 certainly should.

Rob
This post is long enough. However, I would like to say that traditionally, the bloggers that are the most accurate with their predictions are Tim, Kevin, and Steve. Keep that in mind. Go Marquette.

note: thanks to all the bloggers for contributions and to KB for doing the table

Marquette in the Big Apple

Today is the annual Big East media day in New York City, bringing us one step closer to the start of the season. Coach Buzz Williams will be joined by seniors Joseph Fulce, Dwight Buycks and Robert Frozena today for the event. Senior Jimmy Butler suffered a concussion earlier this week and was unable to make the trip.

The Big East coaches selected Georgetown's Austin Freeman as the pre-season player of the year. Jimmy Butler was named second-team All-Big East, while DJO was listed as honorable mention. The coaches pick MU and Louisville to finish in a tie for 8th in the league this year, just ahead of UConn. No respect from within the league, IMHO.

In anticipation of media day the beat reporters from around the league did their own pre-season poll and this year there's some respect for the Warriors. The Big East scribes pick MU as the league's sixth-best team. Meanwhile ESPN picks MU to finish 11th in the Big East this season -- there's a discussion about that prediction on MU Scoop.

Not to be outdone the inimitable Pico Dulce from The East Coast Bias conducted his own strawpoll and pre-season preview with bloggers from around the league. We chipped in and there was some healthy respect for MU, including a few folks picking Vander as Newcomer of the Year. You can read this blogger preview here. Nice work, Pico.

Last night Buzz Williams was the featured guest at the Marquette Circles event in New York City. I live Tweeted the event so check our tweet stream for the details, including information on where to find the interview online in the coming days.

The latest episode of Marquette Basketball: Revealed is up. Also, the Journal-Sentinel posted a complete transcript of Buzz at Marquette's media day. The transcript is excellent. Seriously, it's really interesting to read carefully and digest.

On the recruiting front one-time target Trey McDonald verbally committed to Ohio State earlier this week. The 6'9" big man selected the Buckeyes over MU, DePaul and others.

Nick Faust, a 6'5" shooting guard, still lists MU as a possible destination and will announce his college choice on October 28. Meanwhile, 6'8" Chicagoan Mike Shaw might wait until Spring to decide (he was at Marquette Madness). MU fans are also watching for updates on 6'7" Rodney Hood, who will reportedly decide between FSU, Mississippi State, Alabama, Marquette and Louisville this week.

Despite all of the names Buzz is in on there's a legitimate chance that Marquette may whiff on all these players -- or chose to move on to other talent. Rest assured, however, that when it's all said and done, the talent level Buzz brings in will be at least sufficient. Don't be surprised if there is yet another JUCO player we've never heard of but will be great (see: Butler, J.F., DJO).

After Media Day, there are a few more events upcoming as we get closer to the first (exhibition) game on Nov 6th. The Fish Fry / Haunted Hoops is taking place on Friday. Plus, Marquette will host UVA in a closed-door scrimmage on Oct 30th.

Be the Difference Against Pitt

(Cracked Sidewalks - where we aren't afraid to be a little cheesy in our titles)

First, bone up on previous online content by reading the Q&A from PittBlather.com down below, or go and check out the Media Availability with Buzz down below, or even at the official GoMarquette.com site. MU's site also has player interviews.

Correctly, Rosiak leads with a story about all the chatter on MU making the NCAA tournament, even as the team itself stays focused on its winning recipe. If we're being cynical, we say that it's his own paper talking about it. However, since we're inspired by Conan O'Brien to not be cynical, we will note that this has been picked up by Andy Katz on ESPN, SI.com, Lunardi, and (oh hey) this humble blog. Heck, even Basketball Prospectus is getting close to calling Marquette the best team in the Big EAST. (Please don't write that iconoclastic article, John)

But it's all crap if Marquette doesn't win against Pitt. After all, that's life on the bubble. Luckily, all the pieces are in place to make this the biggest must-win-big-game since the last must-win game with a big game feel. It's a national broadcast game (ESPN2) on a Thursday night at 8 PM. The student section needs to bring it, and the alums in the stands need to lead as well. To add a little emphasis to the game, Marquette is encouraging a "Gold Out" for the game. Since there's been a little bit of online debate about wearing gold, here's our position. We are Marquette Warriors, refusing to buy or wear anything with the chicken on it, but We Are Marquette more than anything. Wear gold and be a part of something larger than yourself. Or don't (whatever), but the sea of gold looks awesome on TV.

Of course, how on earth are we going to beat Pitt? After all, they already won at Syracuse, at Cincy, and at UConn, plus they're coming off an epic 3OT Victory against West Virginia. Still, we're calling a victory thanks to the Marquette fans being the difference (no, seriously).

Digging into the numbers, we see that both teams are really well matched up on multiple levels. (Check out specifics for Marquette and Pitt at Pomeroy's website if you want the numbers)

First, our strengths in general match up really with their strengths. We're great offensively and they're great defensively. They get to the line a bunch and we don't let opponents get to the line that much.

But even in some matchups, it doesn't really matter. Does it matter if you protect the ball well if your opponent doesn't care about forcing turnovers? Or if you prevent opponents from getting to the line if they never get to the line?

Heck, even when the teams are mediocre, they match up well. Our defense is lame, but so is their offense.


The few advantages are really around turnovers and rebounding, which I'm sure is a big shock to all the MU fans out there. Honestly, it's not even that big of an advantage on either side. But surely this is where the game will be won?


No. With all of the even matchups, this game will be won because life is hard on the road. We're predicting a slower-paced game with both teams not shooting particularly well. However, we expect Marquette to shoot better than Pitt due to the friendly (and unfriendly) confines of the BC. Despite losing on the boards, we are also predicting that Marquette wins on turnovers and free throw rate too.

But mostly it's the shooting percentages that will matter, which brings us back to you, the Marquette fans, and how difficult you make life for Pitt. Just picture Jamie Dixon calling a timeout after yet another turnover leading to Marquette three pointer. In summary, Marquette absolutely has to win this game and when the matchup is this close, it'll be the fans that make the difference in good (or bad) shooting. Wear your gold, get "eager", and be loud.

Marquette wins 66-59.

Regular Season Predictions - weekly update

First things first, we finally decided to join 2006 and create a facebook page. The response so far has been pretty good and it has added some "juice" to the CS staff. FB also auto-links to our Twitter feed if that's your thing.

Now, after Marquette took care of business on Saturday night, there are now six regular-season games remaining and the team stands at 7-5. Many bubble-watch prognosticators are saying Marquette is currently "IN" the NCAA tournament. Even more interesting is that Marquette could potentially be playing for 3rd or 4th in the BE this upcoming Thursday against Pitt. Of course, we wanted to take a step back and view the path forward through a different approach.

• Point #1 - Marquette needs to go at least 3-3 in their remaining six games in order to make the NCAA tournament for a final record of 19-11 (10-8) in conference. Even that record will probably mean that MU needs to win a game in the BET. No, there is nothing magical about twenty wins, but as Providence will tell you, there is also nothing magical about finishing 10-8 in conference. Putting it this way... if MU goes 3-3 down the stretch and loses their first BET game, how comfortable would you be on Selection Sunday?
• Point #2 - To feel comfortable, a 4-2 record down the stretch is much preferred, for a final record of 20-10 (11-7). At this point we would be arguing about Marquette's seed more than if they are getting in.
• Point #3 - Finishing in the top four of conference will probably require finishing 5-1 down the stretch, for a final record of 21-9 (12-6). Pomeroy's projections are that #4 will finish 12-6. Going back the last two years, #4 has actually finished with thirteen wins, so even twelve wins may not be enough.
  

Given those assertions, how is Marquette tracking?

Projections for the remaining six games.

A few things to emphasize here.

• Even though they're highlighted, don't get hung up on the win percentages ever. A better measure is to look at the predicted margin of victory (or loss). In other words, a 24% chance of victory is less scary than a prediction of a six point loss.
• The Pittsburgh game is our easiest remaining game of the season. Better turn out on Thursday.
  
• How the hell are we predicted to lose at Cincy, St. Johns, and Seton Hall? The answer comes in two parts. Life is hard on the road, especially for a team like Marquette that relies so much on shooting the ball well. Marquette's offense and defense are both worse on the road and better at home, and that trend applies almost universally in the league (just ask Georgetown). The rims are softer at home. Second, Cincy and Seton Hall are about as good statistically as South Florida and we're playing in their gyms.
• Louisville is trending up, and that should be the toughest home game of the season.
  
• Finally, these predictions are a snapshot in time as of today. Personally, they seem a bit bearish. Next week they'll almost certainly look different.
  

Given the three points and the predictions above, how are things looking as of today for Marquette's post-season?


Point #1 (going 3-3 for 10 wins) - The percentages of finishing with ten wins or more is about 65%. That's good news, but there is a dark side here. It also means there is about a 1/3 chance that Marquette is predicted to finish 2-4 down the stretch. Lose against Pitt on Thursday and Marquette has only a 12% of finishing with 11 wins or more. In other words, if Marquette doesn't take care of business against Pitt, we start to need some luck to make the tourney.

Point #2 (going 4-2 for 11 wins) - There is about a 30% chance that Marquette finishes 11-7 in conference. Win on Thursday and the percentages improve above 40%, but we are not close to the position of arguing about seeding... yet.

Point #3 (going 5-1 for 12 wins) - Unfortunately, chances are not very good for Marquette right now. There's only about an 8% chance of finishing with 12 wins or more. Even with a win on Thursday, odds are slim. There will need to be some luck involved here.

Summary

• Despite the feel-good nature of the current win streak, Marquette is not a lock for the NCAA tournament.
• The team will have to win a game (or two) on the road. They just have to.
• There is a lot more downside to the Pitt game than there is upside. The game that's coming up is a must-win, so start the countdown to Thursday night now. Also, word is that the game will be a gold-out.

We'll have more on Pitt later this week.

Predictions on the rest of the season

We'll use this entry to follow-up on John Pudner's post from a few days ago where he looked at the Providence game and Marquette down the stretch. As he pointed out, Ken Pomeroy predicts that we'll finish 11-7 down the stretch (20-10 overall). This could possibly leave Marquette finishing as high as 4th in the BIG EAST this year.

However, I wanted to run the predictions through my own model and, if nothing else, put up some sensitivities on the likelihood of finishing in-line with that Pomeroy assessment.

First, how do our predictions (as of today's team) compare to Pomeroy's?


We highlighted in green (favorable) and red (unfavorable) where there are disconnects between Pomeroy's predictions and our predictions. For one, our model views life on the road as being a little bit trickier than Pomeroy does. Where he has Marquette as a favorite on the road at UC, SJU, and SHU, we have the good guys as underdogs against Cincy and Seton Hall, and then just about a toss up on the road at St. Johns. We also have Marquette as a stronger favorite against Pitt than he does, and the rest of the predictions are pretty close.

Given that we are a bit more bearish than Pomeroy, what does the analysis give for sensitivity of the final W-L record?


We're calculating a most likely view of 10 wins in conference, meaning that Marquette's most likely scenario is to finish 4-3 in the final seven regular season games. But here's your additional dose of optimism for these scenarios.

• MU has a 90% chance to finish at 0.500 in conference or better (going 3-4 down the stretch)
  
• There is a 67% chance to finish with ten wins or more (4-3)
  
• There's a 35% chance to finish with eleven wins or more (5-2)

If you had told me (anybody?) before the start of the season there was a 90% chance of finishing 0.500 or better, I'd have laughed in your face. Now is a final conference record of 10-8 (overall 19-11) good enough for a trip to the NCAA tournament? Maybe, and maybe not, but it is close enough that a win or two in the BET would get us there.

Buckle up down the stretch and get ready for the final run of the season. We'll have more on South Florida and that 84% chance of victory tomorrow.

Cracked Sidewalks 2009-2010 Predictions

As we have done for the previous few years, here are the Cracked Sidewalks predictions for the season. Want some fun? Check out the picks from previous years.

2006-2007 (Actual record was 24-10 (11-7), and can be found here)

2007-2008 (Actual record was 25-10 (11-7), and can be found here)

2008-2009 (Actual record was 25-10 (13-7), and can be found here)

Onto the 2009-2010 season predictions!

Date	Opponent	Rob	Tim	Kevin	MU92	John	bma
11/13/2009	Centenary	W	W	W	W	W	W
11/17/2009	UM-Eastern Shore	W	W	W	W	W	W
11/21/2009	Grambling	W	W	W	W	W	W
11/24/2009	South Dakota	W	W	W	W	W	W
11/26/2009	Xavier (Old Spice Classic)	L	L	L	L	L	L
11/27/2009	Creighton / Michigan	L	W	W	L	L	L
11/29/2009	Bama, Baylor, FSU, or Iona	W	W	L	W	W	W
12/5/2009	NC State	W	L	L	W	L	W
12/8/2009	UWM	W	W	W	W	W	W
12/12/2009	at UW-Madison	L	L	L	L	L	L
12/19/2009	North Florida	W	W	W	W	W	W
12/27/2009	Presbyterian	W	W	W	W	W	W
12/29/2009	at WVU	L	L	L	L	L	L
1/2/2010	Villanova	L	L	L	L	L	L
1/6/2010	Georgetown	L	W	L	L	L	L
1/9/2010	at Villanova	L	L	L	L	L	L
1/17/2010	Providence	W	W	W	W	W	W
1/20/2010	at DePaul	W	W	L	W	W	W
1/23/2010	at Syracuse	L	L	L	L	L	W
1/26/2010	Rutgers	W	L	W	W	L	W
1/30/2010	at Connecticut	L	L	L	L	L	L
2/3/2010	DePaul	W	W	W	W	W	W
2/6/2010	at Providence	L	W	L	L	W	W
2/13/2010	South Florida	W	W	W	W	W	W
2/18/2010	Pittsburgh	W	L	L	W	W	L
2/21/2010	at Cincinnati	L	W	L	L	L	L
2/24/2010	at St. Johns	W	L	W	L	L	W
2/28/2010	at Seton Hall	L	W	L	L	W	L
3/2/2010	Louisville	L	L	L	L	W	L
3/6/2010	Notre Dame	W	W	L	W	W	W
								Average
	Full Season Wins	17	18	13	16	17	18	16.5
	Full Season Losses	13	12	17	14	13	12	13.5
	Conference Wins	8	9	5	7	9	9	7.8
	Conference Losses	10	9	13	11	9	9	10.2

Some commentary on the selections:

John
My theory is always that if you have experience (last year), you start hot and teams catch up to you late in the year, and if you have inexperienced talent (like this year), you improve throughout the year. We don’t even have four guards to go two-on-two in practice now, and I don’ t think we will be ready for even NC State, much less the trip to Madison, the Old Spice Tournament or the first four games of the Big East season. If we have a winning record January 10, we are ahead of schedule and could make a late run at the tournament. However, even if we are 8-8 at that point, if the freshmen aren’t getting booed and/or discouraged, I believe we really finish strong with two wins in the Big East tourney to take a 19-13 resume into selection Sunday.

Kevin
I have no idea how this team will perform. On paper, we’ve got one star (Acker!) and a bunch of guys who might be great, and might be busts. (Ok, Lazar and Butler are pretty good too.) -- Add to that some injuries, and my outlook is grim. Road wins are few and far between in the Big East, and it was tough to mark down even one road-W. Couple that with a ~50/50 win rate at home, and that gets you to a 5-13 Big East whitewash. Hope I’m wrong. I hope they win @DePaul. I hope they can outlast Pitt at the BC. Maybe eek out a win @ Seton Hall, and for the love of god, beat ND on Senior Night. That’d get us to 9-9. Hope against hope.

Rob
Like most of the fellow bloggers, I just see the first four games as being too brutal of a hole to overcome. I see MU splitting with Providence and beating DePaul twice, and then taking care of the reasonably close games at home like Pitt and ND. However, this team could easily surprise better or worse than these predictions by a wide range.

bma725
The only caveat for me is the final game of the OSC is based on the idea we're playing Iona. If it's anyone else, that should be changed to a loss for me. I may be a bit optimistic, but I think those predicting complete doom (meaning Kevin), are forgetting one that while we may have lost a lot of talent from last year, so did everyone else...and we reloaded a heck of a lot better than some of these other teams. We're not in as bad a shape as people think, especially if we can avoid further injuries. This isn't the deep Big East of last year, and I think our record will reflect that.

Tim
This is one tough team to predict. Somehow I have MU finishing with 18 wins and 9-9 in the BIG EAST. While the conference will take a step back from last year's extraordinarily top-heavy group, I think this year the league will be much more balanced until you get to the very bottom (hello DePaul!). With that balance comes greater unpredictability -- still, I can't come up with a scenario where MU finishes better than 9-9 and I see a much greater risk of a downside slide rather than an upside surprise.

muwarrior92
Youth is the reason I went with the predictions I did. I also believe we are very thin at guard and have always believed good guards carry you in college basketball. Road victories will be at a premium this year. Like bma, I kept thinking about the BE being down as well. However, I think teams like St. Johns and Seton Hall, with their experience, will be better simply because of the experience and not the talent. My biggest concern for the season is the injury bug since we’re so thin and injuries have followed Crean and Buzz like the plague it seems.

The Wayback Machine shows the road ahead

With the NBA draft deadline passing earlier this week a host of very early pre-season rankings are popping up for the college basketball-starved. For Marquette the pattern is predicable with Adam Zagoria notably slotting the Warriors in for a 12th place finish in the still far-off BIG EAST season. Zagoria cites the loss of key players (including Patrick Hazel, LOL) and inexperience as the reasons for the low expectations which Chris Dokish at the NBE Basketball Report also notes as he picks MU to finish 11th overall.

Considering the dramatic roster turnover these predictions are somewhat sound but MU fans ought to remember that Marquette's first BIG EAST squad was picked to finish 12th overall for similar reasons, yet surprised with a 4th place finish. (**Say what you want about Tom Crean, but he did a heck of a job coaching that team and deserved the BIG EAST Coach of the Year nod over Jay Wright. If somebody can explain to me why Wright was the pick -- after all, Nova was favored to win the league and they did what was expected (barely) -- I'm all ears.)

Since it's only June optimism abounds in these parts and looking ahead there are a number of parallels between the Three Amigos' freshman season and the campaign Buzz' Bunch will kick off in the fall. Consider......

The return of an outstanding senior scorer. Lazar Hayward is this year's Steve Novak. As a senior Novak was the most efficient offensive player in the country and a nearly impossible match-up. Luckily for MU, Hayward is the most efficient returning offensive player in the BIG EAST (for higher-usage players, ie: involved in 20% of their team's possessions). Hayward averaged 16 points and 8 rebounds per game as junior. Steve Novak averaged 14 points and four rebounds per game as a junior and elevated as a senior averaging nearly 18 points and six rebound per game. This is promising.

An offensively efficient role player. Jimmy Butler led the BIG EAST in offensive efficiency last season. Though the sample size is small which is what you'd expect from a role player Butler saved his best for the back half of the BIG EAST conference slate, a positive indicator for next season. Looking back to the 05-06 team, senior Joe Chapman was the 6th most efficient offensive player in the BIG EAST, providing a serviceable veteran threat to complement Novak's greatness. The 2005-2006 team was not simply Steve and the Amigos.

Overloaded, redundant perimeter talent. I knocked Tom Crean's inability to balance a roster many times, but in 2005-2006 the formula worked. That squad had no discernible inside presence much like we'd expect from Buzz' Bunch next season. However by adding the Three Amigos to Novak and backcourt/wing role players like Joe Chapman and Dan Fitzgerald (who nailed 40% of his three-pointers that year) Crean created match-up problems for the opposition in most conference games. Fast forward to next season when Buzz Williams will surround veteran role players Maurice Acker, David Cubillan and Jimmy Butler with newcomers Junior Cadougan, Dwight Buycks, Erik Williams and Darius Johnson-Odom. In effect, the formula could be familiar to the Warrior faithful though next year's team also figures to receive a sizable boost from freshman power forward Jeronne Maymon.

The BIG EAST takes a step back. After the 2004-2005 season the BIG EAST endured a massive talent exodus highlighted by Charlie Villanueva, Hakim Warrick, Ryan Gomes, Chris Taft, Chevy Troutman, Chris Thomas and Josh Pace. When teams laced'em up in the 2005-2006 season two teams stood out as heavyweights, Villanova and UConn. The rest of the league was balanced with only four games separating the 3rd place and 10th place teams. In addition, 2004-2005 BIG EAST champ Boston College left the league that previous summer and 2005 Final Four participant Louisville joined the BIG EAST after losing All-American Francisco Garcia as well as starters Ellis Myles and Larry O'Bannon. And we all know what happened to Bob Huggins at Cincy that off-season. Crean's squad took full advantage of a younger, tamer BIG EAST to storm to the top quarter of the league.

This past season the BIG EAST was historically dominant placing five teams in the Sweet 16 and three in the Elite 8. As you'd expect the outgoing talent from those teams is extraordinary. Hasheem Thabeet, Jeff Adrien, Earl Clark, DaJuan Blair, Sam Young, Levance Fields, Terrence Williams, DaJuan Summers, the Three Amigos, Paul Harris, Jonny Flynn, A.J. Price and Dante Cunningham are just a few of the athletes who will play the game for a living in the fall. An exodus like that creates somewhat of a vacuum that a talented team -- no matter how young or inexperienced -- figures to take advantage of. To be sure, every other BIG EAST team is re-loading for the winter and a pair of unheralded teams like Cincinnati and Seton Hall could be poised for breakthrough seasons, so why not MU?

Player development: With roughly five months until the Warriors kick off the season, player development is crucial and based on Buzz Williams' comments last week on the radio it appears that Chris Otule is making giant strides this summer. On the 05-06 team, sophomore Ousmane Barro averaged a quiet four points and three rebounds per game, figures that could be attainable with modest progress from Otule.

Otule's progress is tempered a bit by Joe Fulce's problematic knee which required surgery and will keep him out of action for about 12 weeks, but the MU roster can overcome that loss. In addition with JUCO All-American Dwight Buycks already on campus hitting the books and the off-season program the Warriors could shore up their backcourt more quickly than expected.

Again, why not? History could be on the Warriors' side this winter.

3rd Annual EOY Predictions

For the last couple years, after Marquette hung it's final "L" on the schedule, I've written out predictions for the next year.

Let's see how I did last year:

2008-09 Predictions:
1. DJ, Wes, and McNeal will all be back for their Senior year. Since we are over committed on scholarships, someone will have to leave. One could guess that Pat Hazel may want playing time at another university. Correct, except Hazel didn't leave. Our roster imploded in other ways.


2. It wouldn't shock me if Buzz Williams got a head coaching gig somewhere. Didn't I read TCU was sniffing around? All the other coaches stay. WOW. Buzz did get a coaching gig somewhere. Just didn't know it would be so close to home. All of the other coaches went to Indiana, Indiana.


3. Another Former MU player will join the coaching staff, because it happens every year. What's Scott Merritt up to these days? Totally wrong.


4. Mbakwe will get better. I don't see him exploding like Lazar did, though. Mbakwe exploded on the community college circuit.


5. Scott Christoperson .. won't play many minutes in Big East play next year. While Scott may be our future long distance shooter, I can't see him getting quick enough to defend BE players. Scott played zero Big East minutes.


6. Marquette will go 12-6 next year, 1-1 in the BET, 1-1 in the NCAAs. I think I've seen this movie before. Sadly, bullseye. We went 12-6, 1-1, 1-1. To a large extent, it was indeed the same movie, great expectations, hopes dashed in the end. Even with a different coach, same result.

7. It's going to be a long off-season. Totally wrong. With Crean leaving, Buzz arriving, players coming and going .. it was perhaps the shortest off-season ever, as big news hit every month.

2009-10 Predictions:

1. Coach Buzz will say the following phrases 14,000,000 times next year:

• "In regards to…"
• "I'm humbled by…"
• "I'm not smart enough to.."
• "I've been on the job XXX days.."
• "We've had XX practices.."
• "We had XX paint touches."
• "Where's my Sweet Tea?"
• "We were out of character …"
• "FOUL!" (and get called for a Technical).
  

2. Attendance decrease? As was explained to me before, the attendance numbers usually reflect the prior year's success. But with this economy .. and as most MU fans know, a great chunk of our team just graduated .. I imagine ticket sales will be depressed.

3. The Jump-Around guy will break his 5th metatarsal bone in his foot during a meaningless exhibition game, tragically ending his season as King of the Jumbotron.

4. Coach Buzz will not freak out on Jim McIllvaine next year. Furthermore, Buzz will refrain from freaking out on anyone with a microphone. Beware, newspaper guys.

5. I can't make predictions about players this year. There are too many questions. Will Coobie get the green light to shoot more? Otule & Fulce played very few BE minutes, will they improve enough to play more? The new recruits have torn up their HS opponents. How does that translate to the NCAA? I have no idea.

6. Season Record? Last year, we could count on 4 seniors. Plus or minus, we won and lost most games we were supposed to win and lose. Next year, lots of variables .. we've got very talented freshmen coming in, but without having see them play versus collegiate talent, one can only wildly guess what will happen. Here's my first stab: 8-10 in BE, 1-1 in BET, 0-1 NIT.

That being said, 4 years ago, I had sub-500 thoughts, but after watching the Three Amigos at the scrimmages and first exhibition game, I bumped my expectations, thinking: These guys are going to win way more than people expect. The result was a shocking 4th place finish in the BE that year, when we were predicted 10th. Let's hope we have the same type of surprising year.

2009 Results against NCAA teams

The "BracketProject" is a great website to see the summary of all the bracket prognosticators.

I was looking at it today, and thinking about who MU has played, their seed, and what our result with them was .. They currently have us as a #5 seed, but many of the bracketologists haven't updated their numbers since we lost to Syracuse.

The below seeds are just an average guess from all the brackets .. one can assume those seeds are correct, plus or minus a seed or two.

MU:

Lost to #1 UConn
Lost to #1 Pitt
Lost to #2 UL
Split with #3 Nova W/L (Hopefully play them again Thursday)
Lost to #6 Syracuse
Lost to #9 Dayton
Lost to #8 Tenn.
Beat #7 WVU
Beat #8 Wisconsin
Beat #12 - Northern Iowa (auto bid)

2009 Record vs. NCAA teams: 4-7

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/nit.html


Beat NIT - UProv
Beat NIT - GTown twice
Beat NIT - Cincy
Beat NIT - NC State
Beat NIT - Notre Dame
Beat Bubble NIT - Seton Hall, St. Johns

2009 Record vs. NIT Teams: 8-0

Draw your own conclusions.

Predicting the Rest of the Season

I wanted to take a look at the predictions for the rest of the season.

First question - with every team having at least two losses, how many wins will take home the BE championship?

Looking over here on the right, we can see that the most likely scenario (54%) is that 15 wins will be the best record at the end of the season. There's a 32% chance that one team will win out and have the best record, and a slim chance that every team beats each other up for 14 wins.

16 wins for Marquette is a pipe dream (2%). 15 wins is a slim possibility (15%), and 14 wins is about a 50/50 shot. Although Marquette may have had a chance at these types of wins before, it's not very likely now.

Second question - how does Marquette stack up against the other top teams in the BE?

Okay, it's a bit of an eye chart, but here's the information.

• Pitt - The most likely scenario for both Pitt and UConn is that they finish with fifteen wins, followed closely by fourteen wins. However, Pitt has more chances of getting to sixteen wins.
• UConn - While Pitt may have the most upside, UConn has the best chance of getting to fourteen wins or more. Their most likely scenario is also fifteen wins, although fourteen wins happens almost as much.
• Louisville - Louisville's most likely view is that they'll finish with fourteen wins. They have a good chance of getting to fifteen wins as well, but their second most likely view is finishing with thirteen wins.
• Marquette - As mentioned, Marquette's most likely views are either 13 wins or 14 wins, with the chances of either being about 50/50.
  

Net predictions - There's a lot of variability here, but if I were to predict the final standings, here's where I see things shaking out.

1. Pitt - the most favorable schedule
   
2. UConn - solidly at number two or better
   
3. Louisville - wildcard, but they have some tough games coming up
   
4. Marquette - see: schedule, brutal

Third question - If Marquette's chances of finishing better than fourth are slim, how solid are the odds of finishing with the Bye-Bye?

For this, I looked at the predictions for Marquette versus Villanova. Villanova's most likely view is that they finish with 12 wins, followed by 13 wins. In other words, Villanova's upside of 13 wins is less likely than MU's downside of 13 wins.

When we consider Pitt, UConn, and UL in the mix, what are the odds of finishing with the worst record in the group? According to my calculations, Villanova has an 85% of having the worst record (missing the Bye-Bye). Marquette is next, with a 25% chance, followed by UL (18%). (Teams can tie for the worst record). Pitt and UConn are both less than 5%. There's still a one in four shot MU misses out, but that's not nearly as high as for Villanova.

Summary

• In conclusion, it's looking like 15 wins (or even 16 wins) will be required to win the BE
• Marquette has only slim odds of getting to that level, or finishing ahead of Pitt, UConn, or UL
• However, things look solid for getting the Bye-Bye

Obviously, everything starts with playing well this weekend. However, this all leads to one final question... What NCAA seed do you think Marquette would get from finishing fourth in the BE?

Predictions Update

Predictions for Marquette BE Wins

Just a quick update on the current predictions for the rest of the season.


Most likely view - 13 wins

11 wins or more - 99%
12 wins or more - 91%
13 wins or more - 69%
14 wins or more - 36%
15 wins or more - 10%
16 wins - 1.3%

Where the predictions originally had a view as low at nine wins, and then a most likely view of 14 wins, we now start to head back towards a view of 13 wins.

Here's the key question... Is 13 wins enough for the Bye-Bye?

Go Huggins? WVU win tonight could prove very important to MU

The lone Big East game tonight (Friday) features red hot Villanova traveling to West Virginia, which I would contend could be the most important game of the year that MU is not playing.

Louisville was humbled 57-90 at Notre Dame last night, meaning UConn and MU are STILL the only two teams to win at ND in the past three years. Therefore, MU is now in a three-way tie for second place with Louisville and Pitt (all 9-2), with Villanova (8-3) the only team with a good chance to catch MU from behind. In essence, Marquette has a four game lead over 6th place, because we have the tie-breaker by virtue of wins over the two 5-loss teams (Cincy and Providence) and everyone else has at least 6 losses.

WVU win tonight could give MU crucial bye-bye in the end

In short, barring a collapse by one of the top 5, there is a 5-way race for the four bye-bye spots in the Big East tournament, and my contention is that noone would be helped more by the bye-bye than Marquette for a couple of reasons. First is the fact that our shallow bench would make it very difficult to play 4 games in a row. As one of the top four seeds, Marquette would wait until Night 3 of the Big East Tournament to play a likely fifth seed, and even if MU makes the title game it would only play three times the weekend before the NCAA tournament. Second, I hate to have MU play a first round game against a 12-seed like USF, Seton Hall or Georgetown with nothing to gain and everything to lose – and the USF game and ND’s destruction of Louisville are two more reminders that anything can happen on a given night. A first round loss to a 12-seed could cost MU a couple of seeds in the NCAA, whereas a loss as a 4-seed against a 5-seed would probably have little impact.

If it comes down to securing the 4-seed, then a West Virginia win tonight would actually be worth TWO Marquette wins, believe it or not. To explain why this is, let’s look at the final standings assuming the results at www.kenpom.com played out the rest of the year:

Projected final records and seeds

1.UConn 16-2
2. Louisville 14-4 (beat Pitt to win tie-breaker)
3. Pitt 14-4
4. MARQUETTE 13-5 (if MU matches Nova's win over Pitt, then MUs sweep of WVU and WVUs sweep of Nova would give MU the tie-breaker)
5. Nova 13-5
6. WVU 11-7
7. Syracuse 10-8
8. Providence 9-9 (swept both from Cincy to get tie-breaker)
9. Cincinnati 9-9
10. Notre Dame 8-10 (beat Gtown to win tie-breaker)
11. Gtown 8-10
12. Seton Hall 7-11
13. St. John’s 5-13 (best USF to win tie-breaker)
14. USF 5-13
15. Rutgers 3-15
16. DePaul 1-17

As you can see, most of the tie-breakers would be settled by head-to-head games – Louisville beat Pitt and would get the 2-seed, Providence beat Cincy both times and would get the 8-seed, ND beat Georgetown and would get the 10-seed, and SJU beat USF and would get the 13-seed.

However, Villanova and Marquette split, so if they were to end in a tie for the 4th spot, whether it be at 13-5 or 15-3, then the Big East tie-breaker starts comparing the two teams to the highest ranked team. If MU can beat Pitt, admittedly a big IF but one I have a good feeling about, then the tie-breaker could go through the first three teams and end up going to the next highest seed BEHIND the MU Villanova tie - in this case West Virginia. There is another funny caveat here, which is a team only wins that tie-breaker if they SWEPT the next highest team and the team tied with them WAS SWEPT by that same team. So if West Virginia were to win tonight, and www.kenpom.com has them with a 5-point edge on their home court, then the tie-breaker would go to Marquette because we beat WVU and WVU would have beaten Nova in their only game – advantage MU and we get the extra night off. (note - this paragraph was edited from the original post thanks to a good catch by Scottieduntknow on a scenario mistake.)

So a West Virginia win tonight would not only give us a 1 ½ game lead over Villanova in the standings, but most likely give us the tie-breaker meaning we really had a 2 game lead.

Nova win gets them tie-breaker AND within ½ game of MU

However, if Nova wins tonight, then they pull within a ½ game of Marquette, with an easier schedule the rest of the way AND they would probably own the tie-breaker no matter how the rest of the teams finished from 6th to 16th.

The problem with that scenario is we would no longer have an advantage against Nova with West Virginia as a mutual opponent (both 1-0). The tie-breaker would continue going through the 7th, then 8th, then 9th place team, etc. If Nova loses against Syracuse they would be 1-1 against them, so our game against Syracuse wouldn’t matter for tie-breaking purposes because unless one team SWEEPS the common opponent and the other IS SWEPT, the tie-breaker does not kick in and you go to the next highest team for the same comparison.

It is quite possible MU and Nova will have beaten every team until we get to USF, giving Nova the crucial extra bye day.

There are a couple of other scenarios that give us the tie-breaker over Nova, such as Nova losing at home to Gtown and us completing the sweep at Gtown, or Nova losing at ND and ND finishing higher than Gtown in the standings, but the bottom line is, the most likely determiner of a tie-breaker between MU and Nova will be whether or not Nova beats West Virginia tonight.

Not giving up on beating UConn or Lville either

This is not to indicate I am conceding MU losing at Louisville or at home to UConn. But based on the last few years and matchups, I have a better feel for our chances against Pitt. I actually already have good seats and plane tickets to Pitt, as well as to Milwaukee for UConn, and haven’t ruled out making the 7 hour Sunday drive up to Louisville March 1. But I still remember being mathematically eliminated from a 4-seed last year before our last game, and a West Virginia win tonight could give some nice extra cushion and make sure we have a shot in the Big East tourney, and are rested up for the NCAA run.

After the strange feeling of cheering along with the Fighting Irish last night, I guess I can root for Huggins for one night as well. Go Mountaineers!?

Providence: It's all about protecting the ball

Kind of a crazy game on Saturday. Very good win for the team, especially when it looked for a long stretch that it just wasn't Marquette's night.


First of all, it's that pesky problem of being bad defensively on the road that pops up again. This was a problem all last year, and we're continuing to track it. However, the goofy thing about this game was that Marquette lost on three of the four factors and yet still managed to win the game. The defensive eFG% was outright, throw-your-remote-through-the-TV bad. Despite the rash of early foul calls during the 1H, Marquette did not get to the line at a higher rate than Providence. And, Marquette allowed PC to get a higher offensive rebounding percentage.

Nope, it was all about the turnover rate. Not only was Marquette able to force Providence into a higher turnover rate than predicted, but they were able to take care of the ball remarkably well. In the second half, Marquette had only three turnovers to PC's 13. Just as commentator Bob Valvano said, that was the key to the game right there.

Despite all the giddyness (and deservedly so) from a big road comeback victory, is it time to start expecting to compete legitimately for the BE championship? Here are the current set of predictions for the rest of the season.


With five games under the belt for most of the teams in the league, the set of data is starting to get better. However, it's still a reflection of how well the team is playing right now. Since they're playing well, that helps.

Home wins (high confidence) - DePaul, St. Johns, Seton Hall, Syracuse
Home wins (tougher games) - Georgetown, UConn

Road wins (high confidence) - NONE
Road favorites (tougher games) - DePaul, USF
Road underdogs (but winnable) - Notre Dame, Villanova
Unlikely wins - Georgetown, Louisville, Pittsburgh

If anything, I think the predictions for the home games against Syracuse and Georgetown are a bit high, and the matchups on the road for GU, UL and Pitt are a bit too low. However, it all passes the sanity check. Really, the big difference from the last time is that Marquette won two games (WVU and PC) that were considered "tougher" games.

How do things look for the rest of the season?

Start trying to figure out where Marquette will end up playing in the NCAA tournament. There is less than 1% chance the team ends up worse than 9-9, and 96% chance the team ends up with 10 wins or more. The most likely view is still that Marquette finishes with twelve wins, with a 70% chance that MU does better than last year's eleven wins.

However, as the team is playing right now, there is basically a 50/50 chance the team has 13 wins or more at the end of the season. As a reminder, Georgetown won the league with 15 wins last year. UL and UConn were right behind at 14 and 13 wins, respectively. Everyone else bunched up at 11 wins after that, including Marquette. What are those odds?

• 15 wins - 10%
• 14 wins - 24%
• 13 wins - 46%

Is it too early to think that Marquette can compete for the Big East championship? Maybe, but it's definitely not a crazy notion anymore. This year's team is not only fun to watch and fun to root for, but they could be special.