Wisconsin: Point-Counterpoint

Welcome to Point-Counterpoint, featuring Rob Lowe and Dr. Blackheart.

Doc, you Pompous Ass.  We Are Doomed.  

Marquette is screwed on Saturday.  Here's why:

• Wisconsin will dictate tempo - Marquette likes to run, but consider this.  North Carolina is the fifth fastest team in the nation at 75 possessions per game.  However, on the road, UW shut down the Tarheel's transition game to a snail's pace of 61 possessions. 
• The Badgers don't foul or turn the ball over - Marquette has been making a living by forcing turnovers and getting out in transition, where the end result is either a high percentage two-pointer (MU is #2) or a foul (MU is #28).  Too bad Wisconsin never turns the ball over (#4) and doesn't foul (#28), which will also shut down the fast-paced attack offense.
• They are the #1 defensive eFG% team in the nation - And since we all know by now that defensive eFG% is (at least) two times more important than any of the other four factors, that's important.  MU's offense is going to be 2H Norfolk State ugly.
• UW's bigs are mobile and play away from the basket - marginalizing DG/CO.  How good are the postup players that get pulled away from the basket on the most important end of the court? 
• It's at the Kohl Center - UW@Madison literally uses a different ball at the Kohl Center.  Think about that.  Then think about handcheck fouls being called quick and early on Marquette players, or non-calls against our guys when they are seemingly mauled headed to the basket.  UNC beat Wisconsin the other night thanks to a second half free throw rate advantage of 82% to 12% (hello home cooking)!  Does anyone really think MU is going to get that kind of advantage at the Kohl Center?

I'd love to be wrong, but my big fear is that this game will never really be close.  I expect some ticky tack fouls that limit MU's aggressiveness, while UW's defense makes Marquette look stagnant.  UW leads by 10+ points most of the game.  In other news, I'll have to buy a new TV to replace the one that will shatter tomorrow, and the kids will have learned some new words.  -Rob

Rob, you Ignorant Slut.  You underrate Marquette.

I don't see anyone asking how UW matches up to MU.  You have scared yourself into looking into how good UW is, how they are playing at home (with the officials' calls), how great of a system coach Bo is--which are all true.  However...

• Who is going to stop DJO and Crowder?  Harrison Barnes burned Evans; will Evans be able to stop Jae?  Junior is a distributor PG who can find CO or DG in spells...so who stops a post-up?  And, if they do with their pack defense, who is left open on the perimeter.  DJO? Todd? Jamil can play the 5 and can guard the perimeter, and his rebounding rate is very good.  UW has no depth and UNC got them into foul trouble with their depth and quickness, just like MU.
• Any points off or on the board against the Slo-Mo –O matter (Despite Rob’s proclamations that Free Throw Rate is meaningless).  Bucky has the second lowest FTR in the nation, averaging only nine charity tosses per game.  Compare this to the 33 and 25 attempts per game the last two MU trips to Madison.  According to Pomeroy, opponent FTR is the second highest correlate to MU’s Defensive Efficiency rating. 
• The Swingers love the menage a trois this season being #1 in the nation in the percent of their points from “America’s Treyland” with 46.1% on 24 attempts per game.  Interestingly, UNC opted to keep the ball in Taylor Jordan’s hands, which severely restricted the ball movement to the long-range shooters and forced their worst shooter (39% on FG) to launch late.  Bucky only had 6 assists vs. UNC as a result. 
• MU fits a zone footprint according to Pomeroy, which plays into three important factors for MU.  Zone the perimeter to restrict Taylor’s penetration and the ball movement to the trey shooters, and limit the precious number of possessions via long rebounds that the overreliance on treys results in.  An opportunistic zone press also helps speed up the tempo of the game.  Will Buzz play more zone?
• Patience is a virtue.  Wisconsin is #1 in the nation in eFG% defense and #2 in Opponent Offensive Rebounding Rate with their pack the line defensive scheme.  I think MU’s high powered offense and shooters can conquer the day on eFG%.  I also think Jamil Wilson comes of age in this game to limit Evans on the boards.  Unlike, UNC, MU needs to be very patient on half-court offense to win.

This is not last year's MU team...nor is it Bucky's.  Fast forward to tip-off.  -Doc

Warriors look to go from Sweet to Elite

The Warriors have quite the tough task ahead of them tonight against the North Carolina Tar Heels. While I'm tempted to be optimistic and gushing with the enjoyment of a Sweet Sixteen run, pessimism has been working well for me lately. After all, it's never been more fun to be wrong than I was about Xavier and about Syracuse. However, I candidly struggle with ways that Marquette will be able to defeat North Carolina tonight.

And yet, considering that Marquette is undefeated against UNC in the NCAA tourney, we're busting out the spirit of Al McGuire to help preview the Marquette victory.

It's all about the defense
It is tough to look past the numbers. Before the first round games, I looked into the defensive numbers for teams that win their first game, make the Sweet Sixteen, and advance to the Elite Eight. The results were striking. Over the past five tournaments, only 25% of teams with a defense as bad as Marquette's (#54) even won their first game. Only 15% of those teams made it to the Sweet Sixteen. Since 2007, only one team with a ranking worse than 50 has made it to the Elite Eight. The average defensive ranking of Elite Eight teams is around 16. UNC has the #7 defense this season.

Of course, this year is a different year and a different tournament. More than twice as many "sub-50" defensive teams advanced to the Sweet 16, and the Butler/University of Wisconsin-Wisconsin (ha!) match-up ensured that at least one team would make it this year. Perhaps this is the year where an elite defense won't matter.

Al McGuire says:
"I went into a restaurant one night and ordered lobster, and the waiter brought me one with a claw missing. I called him over and told him about it. He told me that in the back there's a tank they keep the lobsters in and while they're in there, they fight and sometimes one loses a claw. I told him 'then bring me a winner.'"

Translation: screw stats... bring me a winner!

Signs of life from Marquette's defense
Lately there has been some further improvement from Marquette on defense. In four of the last five games, Marquette held their opponents under 0.98 points per possession (ppp). That includes holding the #24 offense (West Virginia) to 0.98 ppp and the #20 offense (Syracuse) to 0.97 ppp. It is possible that the defense is pulling things together just in time. Certainly, against Syracuse at least, the help defense was markedly improved, as the number of charges taken by the team demonstrated. The team appears to be trusting the help defense more.

Of course... last time I said the defense was showing signs of improvement, the team promptly gave up 1.18 ppp to a bad (offensively) Cincy team. Guh. Forget everything I just wrote and pretend I said the defense is still crap (rubs lucky rabbit foot).

Al McGuire says:
"The best thing about freshmen is they become sophomores."

Translation: They learn how to defend.



Will Marquette be able to exploit UNC's weaknesses?
UNC is weak in three areas. Their offensive eFG% is poor, they don't shoot the three pointer well, and they hardly ever force turnovers.

On turnovers, despite being solid all year at protecting the ball, MU was sloppy against both Xavier (24%) and Syracuse (22%). Against a team that never forces turnovers but is great defensively, that's a recipe for disaster.

But it's the effective field goal percentage (eFG%) that is the real concern. Every Marquette fan out there is can imagine the scenario of "(Jean Felix) has come off the bench to hit six three pointers for a new season high". Not to mention that Marquette's weakest area is eFG% defense and three-point defense. It is a weakness vs a weakness matchup, so let's hope that the recent defensive improvements allow MU to be more of a contender than a pretender.

Al McGuire says
"Fifty percent of the doctors in this country graduated in the bottom half of their classes."

Translation: UNC is better, but Marquette is good enough to win too.



What's the key matchup?
It's going to be whomever Jimmy F. Butler is guarding. However, while the conventional wisdom is that he'll guard highly regarded frosh Harrison Barnes, we expect that JFB will eventually end up on point guard Kendall Marshall. Since Marshall replaced malcontent Larry Drew in the lineup, UNC has gone 19-2.

Where UNC suffers offensively is when they either shoot poorly (duh) or cough up turnovers. Marshall's play has been a catalyst for the Tar Heels' late season surge but realize that UNC does not have many effective ballhandlers, so harassing him with JFB and others might be the ticket to an advantageous turnover margin for MU. Marshall has a turnover rate of 30%, but was stellar in the first two rounds. Just like when Butler guarded Kemba Walker, it's entirely possible that Marshall may get premier defensive attention to disrupt the UNC offense.

Al McGuire says
“I think everyone should go to college and get a degree and then spend six months as a bartender and six months as a cabdriver. Then they would really be educated.”

Translation: Folks with a chip on their shoulder or folks who take the unconventional route to success are tougher.

Further translation: Buzz' brand of players have the moxie that the Tar Heels can't match.

UNC is the glamor program. Marquette is not. UNC has a bushel of McDonald's All-Americans. Marquette does not. Few think Marquette can win. Marquette does not believe that.

Moxie rules. Let's get ready for the game. Congratulate the temporary and just live life in the moment. Seashells and balloons.




Additional links of note

• Buzz Williams has a $.3.8 million buyout in his current contract with MU. Rosiak with just about all you need to know about Buzz in the Silly Season. $3.8 million buyout. Huge.
• The Houston Chronicle says that MU's Texas contingent is aiming for a homecoming at the Final Four.
• The Journal-Sentinel looks at the UNC/MU matchup.
• The Star-Ledger has a Q/A with JFB.
• The New York Times on how MU grit could trump star power.
  
• The Chicago Trib says MU's D is the key.
  
• Did MU's late season charge start with a loss at Seton Hall? Perhaps.
  
• New Jersey loves Buzz.
• The Philly paper files an article on the most obvious angle heading into tonight's game. MU and UNC have different recruiting strategies!
• The Washington Post talks about Buzz staying true to his roots.

Sweet 16 prep: Four Myths About UNC

It should surprise no one that all of Marquette is keenly focused on one thing right now: Friday's game with the North Carolina Tar Heels. Well, maybe two things with all the coaching rumors, but we're going to discuss UNC. As everyone tries to break down the game and figure out how Marquette can win, it seems that our expectations of Marquette playing their game is clouding the truth about what UNC's game actually is.

Here are a few myths that should be dispelled before the UNC game.

Myth 1: Get UNC in a hole and you can beat them

Okay, if it's a big enough hole, and you're good enough, this is somewhat true. But plenty of teams this year have had UNC down and made the mistake of thinking they were out. Virginia was up 50-44 with 6:40 to play at home, but then succumbed to an 18-6 run to end the game. Virginia Tech led by as many as 16, and had a 52-47 lead with 5:01 to play before a 17-9 UNC run closed out their upset bid at Chapel Hill. Miami had two chances, leading by as many as 14 in the first half before being held to just 4 points in the final 4:17 of a 74-71 home loss, and in the ACC Tournament led by 19 with 9:56 to play before a 27-6 UNC run left them heartbroken. Clemson also got a double-dose, being held scoreless for 4:35 in the waning moments as a late lead turned into a home loss in February, then saw a 73-66 lead disappear as they went scoreless in the final 3:56 before falling in overtime in the ACC Tournament a month later. It happened most recently to Washington, who took lead after lead in the second half against the Tar Heels only to be held to 4 points in a 4:06 stretch late as UNC took back the lead and put away the game.

Marquette has had their share of close losses and late collapses. Notre Dame, UConn, and most painfully Louisville all stand out as bad memories. This team needs to put together a full 40 minutes to be UNC, because no team in the nation has been better at finishing the comeback. The teams that bet UNC did so by scoring consistently in the second half, not by coasting on a big lead. If Marquette gets up, they have to keep scoring consistently, avoid the 2+ minute droughts, and put their foot on UNC's throat.

Myth 2: Foul Trouble and Free Throws Will See Us Through

If we can get UNC in foul trouble and win the battle at the free throw line, we should win this game. However, that's a very tall order. UNC is second in the nation in terms of defensive free throw rate. Their starters don't foul much, and getting them in foul trouble will be very difficult. John Henson and Kendall Marshall have never had more than 3 fouls in a game this year. Neither Tyler Zeller nor Harrison Barnes have fouled out even once. The only starter to foul out was Dexter Strickland, and he's only fouled out once, on the road against Duke. In fact, the only other player to foul out all season was Justin Knox against Minnesota in November.

Marquette thrives on getting their opponent in foul trouble, and making more free throws than their opponent takes. But against a team that rarely fouls and doesn't give you chances at the line, it will be far more important that Marquette make their shots from the field, because the odds are those calls won't be there come Friday.

Myth 3: Slow UNC Down to Beat Them

Quite simply, playing at a slower pace does not improve your chances for beating UNC. Instead, it makes it more likely that they will win. In games with 72 or fewer possessions, UNC went a stunning 12-1, including 7-0 in games with 68 or fewer possessions. Marquette, on the other hand, was 15-12 in games with 72 or fewer possessions. Why play a slow-down game when UNC barely ever loses those games and Marquette only wins a little over half the time? On the other hand, in games with 73 or more possessions, UNC is 16-6 while Marquette is 7-2.

The bulk of UNC's losses come in faster-paced games, while Marquette's odds of winning also improve when the game is played at pace. MU needs to be able to match UNC's pace to have a chance of winning.

Myth 4: UNC has a Great Offense and Mediocre Defense

While North Carolina can score a ton of points, they actually have a more efficient defense than they do offense. According to kenpom.com, they have the #7 defense in the country, and they do almost everything well, limiting effective field goal percentage, shooting percentage from both 2 and 3, offensive rebounds, and getting blocks. Defense will be a huge key to this game, and it seems the magic number for efficiency is 99. When UNC holds their opponents below a 99 offensive efficiency, they are 23-1, but only 5-6 when their opponents break 99. Marquette has a similar resume, going 18-1 when holding opponents below 99 but only 4-13 when allowing above 99.

Defense will be a huge factor, and UNC's is one of the best. One interesting additional note here, in UNC's four worst defensive performances, they won all the games. Those four games also featured four of their seven best offensively efficient performances. That should serve as a reminder of how dangerous they are late in the game: UNC trailed in three of those games with under 5:00 to play.

Another perspective on UNC's 19-2 mark since Marshall took over the point

Yesterday we laid out the reasons Marquette–UNC looked like it could now be a toss-up based on the formula that has correctly predicted enough bracket games this year to have me in the 97th percentile on ESPN and winning the only separate bracket I entered (1st of 219 entrees in a Washington DC bracket).

Basically, looking at the 5 factors that determine NCAA tournament winners, MU is now the hotter team since the regular season ended and UNC is coming up to Big East country after enjoying the entire ACC and NCAA tourney games in their home state. That leaves MU as now having the upper hand in three of five predictors (hotter team, venue and experience), which is almost enough to balance out UNC’s bigger advantages in the other two (TALENT with 4 guys who will be in the NBA within two years, a BETTER TEAM based on Sagarin).

While ultimately reaching the same conclusion, I believe Jim Bianco (Business 84) did a nice job of laying out another perspective on who UNC is and the edge they have in going 19-2 since freshman Kendall Marshall replaced Larry Drew at the point – a time span during which MU went just 10-8. So from Jim …

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Who Is UNC?
On January 16 UNC lost to Georgia Tech. After that game Freshman Kendall Marshall replaced Larry Drew at the point (Drew has since left the program ... the fourth UNC transfer in the last six months). UNC went on a 19-2 run to go from a bubble team to a #2 seed.

Who Did UNC Beat?
Below uses KenPom stats as they are the easiest to work with.

UNC Current Top 25 wins since Jan 16 (Marshall)
Jan 18 #22 Clemson, home
Feb 12 #22 Clemson, away
Mar 5 #2 Duke, home
Mar 12 #22 Clemson (OT), Semi-home
Mar 20, Washington, Semi-home
Total = 5

To be fair ....
Feb 6 #27 FSU, away
Mar 2 #27 FSU, home

UNC Current Top 25 losses since Jan 16 (Marshall)
Feb 9 #2 Duke, away
Mar 13 #2 Duke away
Total = 2

5 and 2 against top 25 sounds impressive (7 - 2 if you include FSU). However, since January 16, UNC has largely shown an ability to beat Clemson (3 times) and FSU (twice). Clemson won a play-in game against UAB and was handled easily by WVU. FSU beat ND to advance to the Sweet 16. I did not know the ability to win the National Championship rests of the ability to beat Clemson on all surfaces?

Sure UNC beat a lot of top 100 teams to amass a 19-2 record since Marshall started at the point. But top 100 are not left. Only top 25 are left, including #21 MU.

Who Did MU Beat?
What about MU over the same period? January 16 is also a good starting point as it is the day after the Louisville debacle. MU is 10-8 over the same period.

MU Current Top 25 wins since Jan 16 (Louisville Debacle)
Jan 29 # 11 Cuse, Home
Feb 24 #13 UConn, Away
Mar 9, #21 WVU, Neutral
Mar 11 #11 Cuse, Neutral
Total = 4

And to be fair …
Mar 18 #42 Xavier, Neutral

MU Current Top 25 losses since Jan 16 (Louisville Debacle)
Jan 22 #15 ND, Away
Jan 25, #13 Uconn, Home
Mar 2 #24 Cincy, Home
Mar 10 #14 Louisville, Neutral
Total = 4

At first blush MU's 4 and 4 record (5 and 4 with Xavier) is not as impressive as UNC's 5 - 2. But MU has also beaten 3 different teams, like UNC.

MU has shown an ability to throttle a top guard in Xavier's Tu Hollaway (A-10 POY) and Syracuse’s Center Rick Jackson (projected NBA first round pick).

Louisville Debacle Part 2??

If you take the names off the two teams above, then it really looks like a 3 point UNC game like the statisticians Pomeroy and Sagarin have it. In other words, a 1 or 2 possession game as Buzz Williams likes to say.

Attach the names and then the emotions like to fly. How else could one rationalize CBS analyst Wally Sczerbiak (a former Miami of Ohio Player, and also a MU rejected recruit) saying; Congratulations to Buzz Williams and Marquette. Enjoy it, because North Carolina is going to squash you like a bug.

Or ESPN’s barcketologist Joe Lundari saying; I don't think there's a guy on Marquette who could crack the top on UNC. I think this is an easy win for the Tar Heels.

They said it based on UNC’s well deserved reputation. In a close game they expect UNC’s opponent to wilt from the pressure. Who can blame them for thinking this?

See what Miami (“The U”) did on March 10 when The U led or was tied for 39:59 of the game (and led by 19 at one point). UNC’s only lead, and only when it mattered, came from a Tyler Zeller lay-up in the game’s final second. This followed an epic collapse by Miami complete with dribbling off their own leg, throwing the ball out of bounds and missing bunnies down the stretch.

Or yesterday’s Washington game that featured poor play by Huskies down the stretch giving UNC opportunity after opportunity to win, which they did.

Time and again teams look up at the clock and see a close game with little time. Then they look at the Carolina Blue, get intimidated and choke. Will this happen to MU?

My answer is no. Lundari and Sczerbiak may think all #11 and #12 seeds are alike, Cinderella teams just happy to be in the mix. However, what they are not accounting for is MU plays in the Big East, in an NBA Arena (and frequently with NBA stars in attendance) and has played 15 games against the current top 25 (Sagarin data) including Sweet 16 teams Wisconsin, Duke and Uconn (twice). By contract UNC has played only 9 of the current top 25 teams including sweet 16 members Duke (twice) and Florida State (twice).

What To Expect

If Sagarin and Pomeroy are correct, look for a 1 to 2 possession game. What Lundari and Sczerbiak then expect is MU to act like Washington or The U and give the game to UNC.

UNC should be favored and they should not expect MU to give them the game. They will not. They did this already against Louisville on national TV and learned from it. Recent games at Uconn, Xavier, WVU and Syracuse (twice) prove this. What UNC has to do is not come with a Miami, Duke or Washington effort (3 or their last 5 games) because they will lose. What MU has to do is coming with a WVU, Xavier or Syracuse effort (three of their last four). If they do, they can win.

Can’t wait for Friday.

Marquette vs Syracuse for the Sweet Sixteen

I don't have a very high level of optimism for the game against Syracuse. Flat out, Marquette got lucky in their first matchup (not that there's anything wrong with that). MU caught Syracuse during a four game slump and played them at home. Jae Crowder had his last blowup game (in January) with 25 points, and MU hit several shot-clock beating threes down the stretch. Syracuse shot an eFG% of 63% and appeared on the verge of collapse at the end... but still Marquette won.

Of course, I didn't have a very high level of optimism for the Xavier game either, so what the hell do I know? If nothing else, Marquette won their first game on Friday and has a chance to make the Sweet Sixteen.

How did Marquette beat Syracuse last time? To start with, the team shot well (eFG% of 59%). Turnovers were sloppy, and although Marquette had a slight OR% advantage, this game was really won on FTR. Although it's practically insignificant, when everything else that matters is equal, a FTR advantage of 75% to 29% made the difference.

MU shot well against Xavier (59%), but was very, very sloppy with the ball (24%). That turnover number needs to tighten up against Syracuse, especially because forcing turnovers is one of the few things the Cuse do not do especially well. The other area is defensive rebounding, where the Orange are #207. On a neutral court in an NCAA game, can Marquette expect to have a significant FTR advantage?

In other words, MU needs to match pace on shooting well and have a significant advantage in one or two of the other four factors... either by protecting the ball really well or by attacking the offensive glass. Both areas are an opportunity, but Syracuse is a better offensive team and better defensive team.

Having said that, this is the time of year when upsets happen. Maybe years of tough losses finally even themselves out.

Media Links and News

Rosiak talks about how Buzz is a hit on the big stage once again.

GoMarquette.com has a great preview of the game, including the mp3's of the press conference and video highlights. Or you could just read the full transcript. As a bonus, read the Syracuse transcript. The Syracuse players are confident.

Syracuse Pomeroy Scouting Report

Warriors and Musketeers battle in Cleveland

Former Midwestern Collegiate Conference cohorts Marquette (20-14) and Xavier (24-7) renew hostilities on Friday night in the first round of the 2011 NCAA Tournament.

Up front, let's address some of the presuppositions that have made for such good banter these past five days:

First, we're not buying any potential home court advantage for Xavier. Cleveland hates Cincinnati, or something like that. Not only that, but Cleveland is 250 miles from Cincinnati as compared to 450 miles from Milwaukee. 250 miles is not exactly in the neighborhood.

Second, we're not buying that Marquette's depth matters all that much. After watching the tourney games on Thursday, we're convinced fans can order a pizza and have it delivered during the same commercial break. So while the Musketeers only go seven deep, they'll get plenty of rest.

Third, we think this is the best match-up of the opening round. Need proof? The guys who run numbers on these kinds of things can't decide who will win. Nate Silver gives MU only a 48% chance of advancing. CrackedSidewalks fave Ken Pomeroy reckons MU has a 52% chance to advance by a single point. Then, we have the Harvard guys who give MU a whopping 74.22% chance to advance on Friday night.

Fourth, we're not buying into the logic that Tu Holloway is the best guard MU has faced this year. Look, Holloway is really good but Marquette won't be fazed. The Warriors have already derailed the extraordinary individual play of both Kemba Walker and Marshon Brooks, the top two scorers in the Big East. In four combined games, these lead guards went a combined 29 for 77 from the field, just 38% against MU. Marquette will be confident.

What we have is a true tossup game. While we hope the Harvard guys are the smartest of the bunch, they're wrong. To wit, fans would be hard pressed to find a match-up where the Four Factors are any more similar.

NCAA Basketball

We're struggling to find separation for either team so let's look at why Xavier will win.

1. MU struggles to prevent efficient offenses from shooting well. Xavier has an efficient offense (#29 nationally). Although Xavier doesn't shoot well from three, someone will probably go off and have a banner night from behind the arc. (See Marra, Mike).
2. Marquette protects the ball well, but Xavier plays the Dick Bennettesque pack defense that helps slow the pace (which serves as kryptonite) and never forces turnovers.
3. Xavier's rebounding strategy. Essentially, the Musketeers forego offensive rebounds to limit the opponent's transition game, and they pack it in to crush the defensive boards. This will slow MU's transition game and put the Warriors in the dangerous half-court oriented battle. We know pace is important to MU, and Xavier plays slow.

Now, let's consider why Marquette will win......

1. Marquette's offense shines. The Warriors have only had six games this season with an eFG% less than Xavier's average (46%). MU will be the second best offensive team Xavier has faced this season (Florida). By the way, Xavier isn't even close to the best defense Marquette has faced all year (they're the 13th best).
   
2. Foul Trouble. This is really a combination of variables but they relate. Since we know that MU needs to force Xavier into a quicker pace, the Warriors harrass the Muskies for just enough turnovers and attacks the hoop relentlessly. This aggressive style puts Xavier players in foul trouble and opens up the game.
3. Marquette delivers a Three-Star Performance. The Warriors win by outscoring teams, not by generating stops at a breakneck pace. When MU has been 'on' the most this season, three players have elevated their games at once. Usually the formula is Jimmy F. Butler, Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder. However in recent weeks we've seen that valuable contributions from Chris Otule and Junior Cadougan can factor into big wins, just as earlier in the season Dwight Buycks did. If three stars deliver, life will be good.

Tonight's game should be a white knuckler between two good teams that match-up well against one another. With the new-found confidence from a pair of must-win games in the Big East tournament and knowing they can neutralize high-scoring lead guards, our guess is the Warriors find a way to advance.

Tipoff is scheduled for 6:27pm Marquette Standard Time on truTV (Directv channel 246). The inimitable Gus Johnson will call the action. To warm up for the game, be sure to spend hours on the Gus Johnson Soundboard.

Know Your Opponent: Xavier Musketeers

Welcome back to the NCAA Tournament, MU rah-rah.

The Warriors (20-14) earned the 11th seed in the East Region and will take on the 6th seeded Xavier Musketeers (24-7) on Friday at 6:27pm Marquette Standard Time. The game will be broadcast on truTV. The inimitable Gus Johnson will be calling the action. At least MU was over-seeded when it came time to scheduling the play-by-play guy.

While MU and Xavier once shared a common conference, the programs have long since moved on. To get us smart on the Musketeers we've invited Dana and Victory, the excellent Xavier hoops blog, to Cracked Sidewalks for the low-down on the Atlantic 10 regular season champs. If you're interested, check out out my responses to their questions about MU.

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First, let me give a warm greeting to the Marquette faithful and the loyal readers of Cracked Sidewalks. As you all know, Marquette and Xavier have a lot of similarities – both are Jesuit schools located in NL Central cities, both have excellent academic reputations, and both are serious about their basketball. Marquette has the more illustrious history, certainly, but it’s interesting how the schools have paralleled one another over the past 30 years or so. I was a little disappointed to see Marquette pop up on the line with the Muskies on Sunday not only because the Golden Eagles are a tough, well-coached team, but also because Marquette is the type of program I always root for in March. Now, then…....


The Musketeers are led by a fantastic pair of guards, Tu Holloway and Mark Lyons. Talk to Marquette fans about the Xavier backcourt and what we can expect to see from them on Friday.

Holloway and Lyons are about the same size (6-0, 180 lbs) and are both ferocious on-the-ball defenders and aggressive rebounders. The similarities really end there.

Lyons is an all-or-nothing player. He is capable of some absolutely spectacular spin moves and no-look passes, but is prone to try to force the issue, leading to turnovers and bad shots. Lyons has dramatically improved his three-point shooting this season (although he’s still not what you would call a sharpshooter) and is a reliable threat from the outside. Lyons is probably the more physically gifted of Xavier’s guards – he’s lightning quick and has surprising hops.

Tu Holloway, on the other hand, is about as steady as they come. He’s a player of extraordinary basketball IQ and court vision who can instantly identify the weaknesses in a defense. He loves splitting the double team and bullrushing hedge defenders to draw contact and cheap fouls. When he gets to the line (which is often), it’s virtually an automatic two points, which makes him a huge weapon at the end of close games. Holloway has also taken over from Jordan Crawford as the man in crunch time. He seems to have that sense of the key moment.

Xavier as a solid front line in Kenny Frease and Jamel McLean, the latter being one of the nation's best offensive rebounders. How does Chris Mack use his bigs?

Coach Chris Mack’s offense is based around pick-and-rolls from Frease and McLean. They will set high screens with the aim of confusing defenders and theoretically leading to easy inside baskets or uncontested jump shots. Frease is very effective as a back to the basket post man – he is a good passer and his height allows him to shoot over most defenders. Frease’s challenge is getting the ball – once he has it, defenders are in a tough spot. McLean, on the other hand, is better facing the basket. He doesn’t have much range and doesn’t finish particularly well on his post moves. Where he excels is offensive rebounding and transition play. He’s also a tremendous defender.

Xavier's efficiency margin is sizable based on the A-10's best offense and a defense which limits opponents to just 0.95 ppp. Comment on the Musketeers' defensive philosophy.

Xavier – just as they did under Sean Miller – plays a variant of Dick Bennett’s packline defense. The Muskies will concede the three-point shot in an effort to limit dribble drives, clog the lane a bit, and reduce second chance points.

X has been slightly less efficient defensively than in past seasons – the Musketeers don’t have size and lockdown defenders in the backcourt the way they did when players like Justin Cage and Stan Burrell were in school. X seems to allow a high percentage from three, but has generally done a good job at limiting the opposition’s trips to the line. A key will be 6-5 senior swingman Dante Jackson, who is a quick and aggressive defender but has an annoying tendency to get into foul trouble (his struggles were a big part of X’s difficulties in the Dayton game last Friday).

Heading into the NCAA Tournament, what is your biggest concern for the Musketeers? What is their kryptonite?

The thing about Marquette that concerns me is that they are a team with a lot of good ballhandlers that can get to the rim. Xavier only plays seven guys. Because of preseason losses (sharpshooter Brad Redford tore his ACL, Crawford left for the NBA, and talented 6-7 frosh Justin Martin had to sit out due to an eligibility snafu) the Muskies have no scholarship bench players to spell Holloway and Lyons. Down low, X has big bodies to eat minutes in lieu of McLean and Frease (6-9 sophomore Jeff Robinson and 6-9 senior Andrew Taylor) but neither is skilled enough to hold Marquette’s tough front line at play for extended time. Foul trouble is the Muskies’ kryptonite in my view.

Are there any Musketeer players that are notably overrated or underrated that opponents may be surprised by?

I actually think it’s more of a teamwide issue. If you look at the Muskies’ season results you’ll see a lot of ugly games early – an OT win over IPFW, a 3-OT win over Wofford, a 20-point loss at Cincinnati, an 11-point loss at Miami of Ohio, a 10-point loss at Gonzaga. I think people may underrate the Musketeers based on those early struggles. Like last year (where the Muskies started 8-5, with a loss to Marquette in Orlando mixed in, and then ran through the A-10 all the way to the Sweet 16), Xavier had to implement a full-scale overhaul of their offensive game plan, while dealing with major personnel issues. It seemed like a switch was flipped after the UC debacle, and since then Xavier has really only produced a handful of subpar performances. The A-10 won’t get much respect (understandably) from Marquette fans, but the Muskies are a far better team today than those pre-January 6th results would indicate.

What are the common gripes you hear from X fans after losses?

When X loses games it typically has to do with crappy three-point shooting. Jackson was a rock solid 40% shooter last year that could be counted on to hit open shots, this year he’s struggled. Redford was a 50% three-point shooter, he’s obviously unavailable. Both Tu and Lyons hover around 30-35%. If they are on, the Muskies are a very potent offensive team. If they are off, teams can slough into a zone or a packed-in man-to-man and make life very difficult for the Musketeers.

As for a prediction...

....All the computer rankings and oddsmakers say it's too close to call. It's actually very similar to last year's XU first round matchup with Minnesota. I don't know enough about Marquette at this stage to do anything but make a WAG, so I'll go Xavier 68, Marquette 66 in a typical slow-paced, halfcourt-dominated tournament game. But to me honest, nothing would surprise me out of this game -- both teams are somewhat mercurial and inconsistent and good jump shooting could carry the day.

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This was great .... thanks to Dana And Victory for diving in on his beloved Musketeers -- loads of good info.

Louisville Rivalry Continues in the Garden

Just as we tweeted last night, we are dying to play Louisville again. Without putting too fine a point on it, the last time we played Louisville was an abomination. Call it what you want... choke job, epic loss, or my personal favorite (The Meltdown), there's really no excuse for blowing that lead. But we're not here to talk about that past.

With a different perspective, it's just another game in a series that is a phenomenal rivalry. Just add the Meltdown to the list. Is it really all that much worse than losing on Senior Night in Double OT? Or Jerry #$%^ Smith? Or Reece @#$% Gaines? Of course it isn't. And yet, that complete list also includes DWade rallying the team in the FF season. It includes Hutch the Clutch's three to win, Wardle in 2OT, and Wardle. It includes Dameon Mason's game winner and Novak hitting approximately 18 threes (maybe a rounding error) on the road. Oh yeah... and don't forget Buzz walking it out.

For every stomach punch we get, Louisville has gotten their own bloody nose. So bring it on. These games are so unpredictable and back and forth (our record vs UL is 12-14 in the modern era), no one really knows how things will go tonight.

Is the offense going to be good enough?

Remember this number: 1. If Marquette scores over one point per possession, we've got a good shot to win. Louisville brings a great defense to this matchup (#2 in the BE) and has only allowed an opponent to score over 1.00 ppp ten times. Six of their eight losses came from this group. Meanwhile, Marquette has averaged 1.10 ppp in conference, and has only been below one point per possession seven times (six losses). Our first matchup with UL? 0.91 ppp vs 0.92 ppp. Will Marquette protect the ball and take good shots tonight?

Which defense will show up?

Will it be the defense that allowed WVU to score 1.24 ppp in a half, or will it be the defense that held WVU to 0.79 ppp in a half? UL's offense isn't the greatest, but their strength is our weakness. Magic 8-Ball says "Reply hazy, try again".

Fatigue vs Rest

This question boils down to the following scenario. Marquette is playing their third game in three days, but they are more comfortable in the Garden. Louisville is rested but doesn't have two days of warmup games. What's going to have the bigger impact? Consider this... first, Marquette is really well conditioned. Second, teams with a double-bye last year went 1-3. Third, Marquette played the first game against UL with only eight minutes combined from Blue, Gardner, and EWill. Will Marquette have enough juice for this game?

We believe the answers to these questions (besides the defense) are favorable for Marquette. Louisville may be the better team, but only a little. We like Marquette's chances to continue playing basketball tomorrow night. After all, to quote last night's hero, Junior Cadougan, "to tell you the truth, I just didn't want to go home".

Marquette opens 2011 NCAA Tournament against Seton Hall

The NCAA Tournament starts today for the Marquette Warriors, who have to win (what amounts to) a play-in game this evening at Seton Hall to advance to the first round. While it's true that Marquette's schedule this season has been brutal -- the Warriors' worst loss of the season was to #34 Pomeroy ranked Gonzaga --the team simply doesn't have enough wins to offset its dozen defeats. Win and they're in, it says here.

Seton Hall welcomes the Warriors on their own Senior Day at The Rock. Senior Jeremy Hazell, a 2,000 point scorer in his career with the Pirates, figures to be guy MU must game plan for in order to win. Hazell is surging in the final weeks of his college career, lighting up St. Johns with 31 points in The Hall's convincing 84-70 win earlier this week.

Despite Hazell's scoring prowess, Seton Hall is one of the worst three point shooting teams in the entire nation (#326) and is inefficient in the paint as well (#222). The Hall struggles to hit shots and are a poor offensive rebounding team. One of tonight's keys is essentially a battle of weaknesses -- Seton Hall's inability to make shots and Marquette's inability to defend at a high level. In the Warriors' loss to Cincinnati, MU allowed 1.18 points per possession (ppp) to the 11th 'best' offense in the Big East. Clearly MU has to pick up the defensive efficiency to claim a road win tonight.

One factor that is decidedly in Seton Hall's favor is defense where the Pirates are one of the best in the Big East, and the nation. Seton Hall's adjusted defensive efficiency is the 13th best in the nation at 89.0, second-best in the Big East to Cincinnati. Keep in mind that tne Division 1 average is 101.6, so the Pirates' defensive performance is extraordinary. So here we have strength against strength. The nation's 13th best defensive team against the nation's 14th best offensive team.

Expect a white knuckler tonight. Pomeroy sees MU securing a one-point victory. We agree. Marquette's offensive balance and efficiency is a tough match-up for any team but Seton Hall should neutralize a good bit of any MU advantage. However, the presumption here is that Marquette amps up the defense just enough to walk away with its fourth Big East conference road win of the season. Leading into the Cincy game the Warriors were an improving defensive team, and the hope here is that Wednesday's defensive performance will be nothing more than the outlier in the season's final two weeks.

Ring out Ahoya!

Senior Night vs Cincinnati

Just a quick update before tonight's game. First things first... it's senior night, which is always one of my favorite games of the year. If you don't usually stick around for the ceremony, it's worth it. This will be the final home game for Jimmy F. Butler, Joe Fulce, Dwight Buycks, and Rob Frozena.

Rosiak has an article the role these four seniors played. He also has a blog entry about how the third time is the charm for Williams. Yeah, no more senior night losses.

This is a big game, obviously. Marquette 18-11 (9-7) needs at least one more victory to lock up that NCAA berth. With the final game of the season being Saturday at Seton Hall, the home court advantage is huge.

Game time is 7 pm. The AD site has logistics information. However, let me say this. It's ridiculous that the only option for TV is either TW32 or ESPN3. I hate to say it, but at this stage of the game one should not need to hunt around for an internet feed to watch the game. small-time.

Cincinnati also stands at 9-7 in conference, with a 22-7 record that is the result of fattening up on cupcakes. Cincy does play good defense, though, as evidenced by their #12 ranking. It's almost as though they are a doppelganger version of Marquette, where their mediocre offense and good defense match up against our good offense and mediocre defense.

For Cincinnati, although their eFG% defense has been strong, in conference play they're only 11th best. MU's strength vs Cincy's weakness. Where Cincy has excelled has been in forcing turnovers (#2 in conference). That's a strength vs strength matchup for Marquette. Where Marquette has been most vulnerable is where the Bearcats are weak too. The one area to look out for defensively is where Cincinnati crashes the offensive boards.

Pomeroy gives us a 65% chance of winning, but I'd put it a little bit higher. Expect our defense to continue to improve as Marquette sends the seniors out on a final note.

Marquette Looks to Avoid Letdown at Home

With a signature conference road win in-hand, the Marquette Warriors now turn their attention to the final stages of the regular season. Marquette (17-11, 8-7) closes the season with three games in the next six days -- home games against Providence and Cincinnati, followed by a season-ending road trip to Seton Hall.

First up are the Providence Friars (14-14, 3-12) in a 3pm tipoff at the Bradley Center this afternoon. The game will be broadcast on the Big East Network.

Looking at the Pomeroy ratings, Marquette's season profile remains one of the most intriguing in the nation. Of the Warriors' 11 losses, the team's worst defeat was to #50 Pomeroy-ranked Gonzaga at neutral site. While 11 losses to teams in the Pomeroy top 50 is the epitome of frustration to many, it also points to the relative strength of this team, which has wins against four of the KenPom top 30.....

.....all of which makes today's game against the #79 Pomeroy ranked Friars key. Every team's profile on Selection Sunday is relative, and a loss to the Friars would constitute the worst defeat of the season for MU at a time when the Warriors can least afford it.

We don't expect that to happen today in what should be an absolute shootout. Providence and Marquette are the top two scoring offenses during Big East conference play and are two of the three worst scoring defenses in conference play.

For the Friars, Marshon Brooks sets the pace not only for PC but for the entire Big East at 27.4 points per game in league action. In the Friars' last outing, a one point loss to Notre Dame, Brooks torched the Irish with a Big East regular-season record 52 points. In the Domer loss Brooks became the first player to make 20 field goals against a Division I opponent since 1997.

While Brooks and his running mates can flat-out score, their offense is not as efficient as more elite offensive teams (like Marquette) due mainly to an inability to hit the three-pointer (#304 in the nation at 3-pt FG%). Still, Providence crashes the offensive glass effectively, creating more looks for its high octane offense.

Defensively the Friars are ineffective, prone to surrendering offensive rebounds and struggling to defend opponents inside the arc. Looking at the numbers it's no wonder the Friars arrive in Milwaukee on a five-game losing streak.

Looking at the Good Guys, one notable area of improvement for Marquette in the last several weeks is on defense, specifically eFG% which -- as faithful readers know -- is the most significant factor in championship-level defense. Marquette's last four opponents were held to an eFG% of less than 51%, punctuated by UConn's abysmal eFG of 39.6% which marked MU's best performance in this category during Big East play.

In the past four games Marquette opponents have managed an eFG% of 47.2, a substantial improvement on the team's year-long average eFG% of 50.1, the 213th 'best' in the nation. By contrast an eFG% of 47.2 would be about the 90th best performance in the nation. This defensive trend is MU's best multi-game effort of the season by far (not counting a December string against mostly non-conference patsies), and directly coincides with the improved play of center Chris Otule.

In the last four games Otule is averaging nearly eight rebounds, 1.75 blocks, and seven points. He's altered or contested dozens of other shots. Also, his minutes are also up, way up. The 6'10" sophomore has played no fewer than 20 minutes in each of the last four games, staying on the court for a season-high 30 minutes at UConn. His 103 minutes played in the past four games are the most of any four-game stretch this season, amazing progress for a player who commanded 20 minutes in just three of Marquette's previous 11 Big East games before this stretch.

With new-found baseline strength the Warriors are now equipped to beat teams in new ways. And with the Big East's highest scoring offense poised to hit the court on Sunday, the timing could not be better.

Marquette Takes on Seton Hall in Must Win Game

Finally, Seton Hall has returned to Milwaukee. Wait, I'm mixing basketball up with the WWE.

Regardless, that's the lead in Rosiak's blog preview of the game. Go read it, because it's a terrific reminder of exactly how screwed up Seton Hall has been the last few seasons. At 11-15 (5-9), Seton Hall isn't exactly burning up the league, but at least there's far less drama with the program.

New coach Kevin Willard does have Seton Hall doing one thing particularly well. The Pirates are the #12 defense in D1. This is mostly on the strength of their three point defense (#23 overall), but their interior defense isn't bad either. Offensively, much like Marquette, SHU does a pretty good job of protecting the ball. However, in all other offensive categories, the Pirates are awful, and it all adds up to the #170 offense.

This is the final Saturday home game of the year, at 8 pm on a Saturday night. The home crowd, which is almost a sellout, should be properly juiced and ready to go. Marquette absolutely has to win to keep their NCAA chances alive.

The AD has their preview, plus here is the Media Availability of Crowder, Butler, and Buzz.



Finally, don't forget that tonight is Father Wild tribute night. All fans in attendance will receive a Father Wild bobblehead.

Know your opponent: St. John's

Real Chili. Miss Katie's Diner. Marquette Gyros.

Yes indeed the Marquette Warriors are back in town, hosting St. John's and looking for some home cooking after a three-game road swing that saddled the program with two tough losses. The Warriors enter the game at 15-10 overall and 6-6 BIG EAST. Despite the rough road trip, Marquette remains on the right side of the bubble thanks to a strong strength of schedule. And with only one RPI top 25 team remaining on the regular season schedule, it's time for the Warriors to push for an NCAA bid.

The Johnnies are also enjoying life in the neighborhood of the bubble and are coming off of a clutch win at Cincinnati on Sunday. The win capped a breakthrough week for the Redmen, who blew out UConn at MSG thanks to Dwight Hardy's career-high 33 points. Hardy was named the BIG EAST player of the week for his efforts. St. John's stands at 15-9 overall and 7-5 in the BIG EAST.

Now it's time to learn more about the Johnnies and we're pleased to welcome the inimitable Pico Dulce from Rumble in the Garden for a Q/A about his resurgent Red Storm. By the way, if you'd like to see our assessment of MU -- please click here for our contribution to his site.

Pico, take it away -------------------

When SJU has been good this year, the Johnnies have been very good (Duke, UConn) but when the team has been bad, well (Fordham, Bonnies, Cuse at MSG). What makes the Johnnies so volatile?
The Red Storm (I'm okay using that name, though I'll use Johnnies as well) have some stylistic issues. The way they press and recover, along with how they run their matchup zone (with an eye towards trapping) makes for some exciting results... and some volatile ones as well. So a team that sets its feet and starts hitting threes - especially without turning over the ball - can really run up the score. The way the Johnnies play D, they don't actually get a lot of non-turnover stops compared to many other teams.

In the case of Cuse and the Big East losses, those are games where the Johnnies just lost control of the pace, tried to make plays that weren't there, or got into foul trouble. The team isn't deep, and their margin for error is thin. So when they start making mistakes, they can balloon into something ugly.

I think that's part of what grated UCLA fans' gears about Lavin - the team isn't predictable like a many other coaches' teams. When things are going great, they can smoke opponents like an old John Woo movie. And when they fall apart, the team looks wholly incompetent.

Which player has benefited most from Steve Lavin's system?
Justin Brownlee. Dwight Hardy was always a shooter, and simply gets more time on the court (and has improved his game as well), but Brownlee has become a much better decision-maker. The ball often goes through him on a possession, and Lavin takes advantage of his versatility. Brownlee can catch-and-shoot, can snake in the lane for layup, can hit a short jumper, can shoot from outside, and even has a little hook/ post-up move in his arsenal.

Last year Brownlee seemed to have two moves - the dunk in transition (which he still has), and the Bad Idea Early Offense Jumpshot. It happens from time to time, but much less than it used to.

Defensively St. John's remains a work in progress, struggling to stop opponents from shooting well but turning them over at a high rate. Can you comment on Lavin's defensive philosophy?
Aw, nerds! I did that above. More detail: Lavin likes the matchup zone, likes different kinds of pressure. Wants constant pressing from his teams. He'll look to institute traps to force non-ballhandlers to make decisions, and he has a solid pickoff man in D.J. Kennedy. I think Lavin would like to also have a lockdown FG defense team in his mind, but the style he institutes doesn't show that focus; Lavin's philosophies center on the turnover ratio - smart passing on one end, and constant pressure on the other end.

What is the one thing you'll look for early in the game to indicate if the Johnnies will surge or struggle against MU?
Not one thing. The Johnnies - much like last year, actually - can compete for long stretches, until their offensive weaknesses catch up to them. Then the other team goes on a run, the Johnnies start pressing and making mistakes; that's often the team's undoing.

But if St. John's can force turnovers early and draw some fouls inside - let's say, if the Johnnies can get into the bonus by the 10 minute mark in the first half, I'll think the Red Storm are working their game the way they would like it to be worked.

As you know Monday is Al McGuire Night at the Bradley Center. As a St. John's fan happily living in the Midwest what are your impressions of what he meant to St. John's (or New York) basketball?
uh... I didn't know it was Al McGuire night! To be honest - and to be a bad basketball historian - I just know he was one of St. John's greats and he was awesome at getting that NYC talent to leave NY in a time when Wisconsin was like a different country.

Steve Lavin has changed the vibe on campus for Johnnies hoops. Is the team meeting expectations so far this season -- and where do you expect this team to land up in March?
This team is exceeding expectations, slightly. I thought they would eke out some wins and grind out a 9-9 or 8-10 conference record. I didn't think they would blast Duke, I never would have thought they would have won at West Virginia. They're in some ways fun to watch, and in other ways frustrating. Which is a lot of what I expected. I expected a better offense, honestly, and a better FG defense; taking on multiple 15+ point losses is tough to watch and colors peoples' perceptions of a team (and the coach).

Before last week, I might have said that I expect them to be in the First Four in the NCAA Tournament - assuming they take care of DePaul, Seton Hall, South Florida, and another team. Now? I almost have expectations. I think Lavin has always been fantastic at getting a team to perform loose and effectively during the NCAA Tournament, and the Red Storm are showing that when they get to run. If they don't face a strong interior presence and/or really tall/ long team on the wings, they might actually make the Sweet Sixteen - probably better than what half of the Big East will do, honestly. And it's not because I think they're particularly talented; more because they profile like a mid-major Sweet Sixteen team when they're at their best. Dwight Hardy is the one man show - the Harold Arceneaux, if you will - with a good set of players around him.

Bonus: Admit it ... after moving to Chicago you actually prefer the Midwest to New York. What is your favorite Midwestern comfort food?
I never denied that I prefer the Midwest for living. If I had a LOT more money? I might want to live in NY or Long Island, which I am growing to appreciate. But I like the people, the pace, the space and the ability to actually own things and save money despite paying school loans until I die. It's pretty cool. And biking from place to place. I'm even getting used to driving (though my recent trip to LA helped move the needle on that, strangely).

Comfort food... nothing particularly Midwestern. I like Midwestern beers - the Two Brothers' beers are on point - I like the cheese (and Mars Cheese Castle). I love the burger options. The readily available and good Mexican food. I like how Chicago is quite a foodie city - I wouldn't be so up on things, but my wife is really into food and food policy and food creativity.
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Pico, many thanks!

And yes, tonight is Al's Night at the Bradley Center, an annual highlight for the Warriors faithful.

Jumpin Jesuit Showdown

In search of its first signature road win of the season, the road-weary Warriors will lace'em up against the Georgetown Hoyas on Sunday afternoon.

Marquette (15-9, 6-5 BIG EAST) is 1-1 on the current road swing, losing late at Villanova and stealing a win against USF earlier this week. With just seven conference games remaining, Marquette has little margin for error in its pursuit of another NCAA tournament bid. However, stealing a win at #11 Georgetown (19-5, 8-4 BIG EAST) will be a tall order. Since opening the BIG EAST schedule at 1-4, the Hoyas are on a hot streak. Georgetown has won seven consecutive games, four of which have come away from home. The signature win during this run was a 64-56 win at Syracuse on Wednesday, as the Hoyas used a 15-3 run down the stretch to pull away for the victory.

Georgetown is led by Naismith Award finalist Austin Freeman, who averages
18.5 points per game and connects on 53% of his field goals overall (45% from three-point territory). Guard Chris Wright averages a dozen points per game to go with five assists, while backcourt running mate Jason Clark is good for a dozen per game as well. For the first time in ages, Georgetown isn't led by a premier big man, and yet they continue to be very good.

How do they do it? According to their Pomeroy stats, Georgetown is great offensively. However, they are only good in one area offensively (eFG%), but even that has them as the #3 team at effective field goal percentage. The Hoyas are #2 inside the arc and #34 at shooting from three. Match that up against Marquette's crappy eFG% defense, and you have a recipe for Georgetown to score early and score often.

Defensively, GU is not as strong and again they are only good in one area. Of course it's the most important area (eFG% again). In particular, the Hoyas are good at preventing opponents from scoring inside the arc. They can give up shots from outside the arc. Finally, GU plays a slow-down tempo (#238 overall), which can be kryptonite for MU's defense. Add it all up and you have quite a few strengths for Georgetown going against Marquette weaknesses. Oh... they're at home.

But let me tell you something. Georgetown hates this matchup. They HATE it. First, the Hoyas are fairly inconsistent defensively. They can give up 1.14 ppp to Providence and hold Syracuse to 0.96. While GU is going to get points, Marquette is probably going to get points too. Second, while Georgetown is good at eFG% on both sides of the ball, they are either not good or downright bad everywhere else. The Hoyas are sloppy with the ball, never force turnovers, and they're mediocre at defensive rebounding. Marquette has a very good chance to match GU at eFG% and take advantage of turnover margin and offensive rebounding. Finally, just note that Hoya Prospectus recently placed Georgetown as the 9th best team in the league. MU was #3. I'm not saying Georgetown is a pretender... well, maybe I am.

Does any of this mean Marquette is going to win? No, but like always, MU has more than a puncher's chance. If only they would press more to increase the pace of the game. We're not ones to to be homers on game predictions, but we think the Warriors finally lock down that elusive quality road win.

Tipoff for the game is scheduled for 12pm Marquette Standard Time. The game will be broadcast on ESPN and called by Mike Patrick and Len Elmore. Bah.

Finally, according to the Official MU Game Notes the game is part of the Jesuit Basketball Spotlight. "The Jesuit Basketball Spotlight project is a nationwide effort to identify basketball games between Jesuit schools and, through those games, bring greater positive awareness to Jesuit education and mission. This project was developed by the Association of Jesuit Colleges and Universities (AJCU) in response to member institutions wanting to spread the word of Jesuit higher education through the more than 90 basketball games in which Jesuit institutions play each other." Go Jesuits!

*joint post by Tim and Rob

MU seeks vital road win at USF

As John Pudner points out in his overnight post the final eight games of the Big East schedule might not be as manageable as many think with the Warriors potentially staring at a 9-9 finish in conference play. And let's face it -- 9-9 is likely an NIT caliber finish.

Of course, this is why they play the games. The back stretch of the Warriors' conference slate is still more manageable than the first 10 games of the gauntlet, even if the team finds itself in the middle of a three-game road stretch.

Tonight Marquette (14-9, 5-5 BIG EAST) heads into Tampa for a winnable road game against the USF Bulls, once again one of the most disappointing teams in the Big East but a team that often gives MU fits. USF is led by a tall, athletic baseline which figures to try and dominate the backboard in hopes of holding off the high-octane Warriors. USF (8-16, 2-9 BIG EAST) is reeling having lost 9 of 11 heading into tonight's game. As columnist Tom Zebold points out, times are tough for USF men's basketball and MU can expect dozens of USF fans to turn out for the big game.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a 71-64 MU victory. USF is a poor offensive team overall and one of the worst in the country from three-point range. The Bulls' saving grace is that they are one of the nation's best at pounding the offensive glass (but you knew that already thanks to Pudner). Defensively the Bulls force fewer turnovers than just about any team in the nation, so expect MU to get the shots it wants for most of the night.

By the way, Rosiak's article on (promising) benchwarmers Jamail Jones and Erik Williams is revealing and a must-read. Also, here are the MU game notes.

Tipoff is scheduled for 6pm Marquette Standard Time. The game will be broadcast on ESPN2.

Warriors seek signature road win

If there is one thing teams can count on in the Big East, it's the opportunity to claim quality wins that will matter on Selection Sunday.

Of course, while opportunity knocks regularly, so does disappointment in the nation's strongest basketball conference. Nevertheless, the Warriors will storm the court tonight looking for a marquee road win at Villanova in a match-up of the Big East's two highest scoring teams.

The Warriors (14-8) are riding the emotional high of a much-needed victory over the Syracuse Orange, pushing their record to a respectable 5-4 through the first half of Big East play. The Wildcats (17-3, 5-3) enter tonight's game hungry for a win. Villanova has lost two in a row and three of their last four. In those three losses, the Wildcats failed to reach the 70-point mark; an uncharacteristic swoon for such a high-powered team. Last time out, Georgetown escaped with a 69-66 win over Villanova in Philadelphia.

Villanova is once again one of the more balanced teams in the league. They have four players averaging double-figures, led by seniors Corey Fisher (16ppg) and designated marksman Corey Stokes (15 ppg). Unlike past Wildcat teams, this year's team has productive baseline players in Mouphtau Yarou (8 ppg, 7 rpg) and Antonio Pena (10ppg, 7 rpg). In today's blog from Rosiak Buzz notes that the mix of talent for Jay Wright has the Wildcats playing a bit differently.

Expect a shootout tonight. Both teams have excellent offenses, though MU fans can hold out hope that Villanova's recent struggles to score are more than just an anomaly. The one area where Marquette is weakest defensively (eFG%) is the one aspect of offense where 'Nova is weakest.

Ken Pomeroy predicts a seven point Wildcat win tonight and defense is the reason. Villanova holds opponnents to an eFG% of just 44.5, which is stifling. Still, the Wildcats do not force turnovers and MU is one of the nation's best offensive teams. Ultimately tonight's battle is strength against strength. Like most games, expect Marquette's Top 10 offense to keep things close but the #81 ranked defense probably won't be enough to win it. Root for more poor shooting from Villanova (or just enough defense) and continued offensive excellence from the Warriors, and perhaps we'll see the Wildcats' 45-game winning streak at the Pavilion snapped.

Tipoff is scheduled for 6pm Marquette Standard Time. The game will be broadcast on ESPNU.

Links, Links, Links

• Rosiak explores the elephant in the room -- Vander Blue's disappointing freshman season to date. The article is encouraging. I remain convinced that Vander is merely playing out of position based on the current composition of the roster. Blue, who is not a shooter, is better equipped to play the point guard/alpha guard role and that opportunity will be there next season.
• Wesley Matthews has been selected to play in the annual Sophomore/Rookie Challenge at the NBA All-Star Weekend.
• CBS Sports previews tonight's game.
• MU game notes.
  

Please take the time to watch the latest excellent episode of Marquette Basketball Weekly from Brad Galli, Todd Warner and the team at MUTVSports.

Derailed MU looks to get back on track

The Orange come to town on Saturday in gut-check moment for the Marquette Warriors.

After a fine start to Big East play the Warriors (13-8) have stumbled to a 4-4 league record, losing three of their last four outings while blowing second half leads in each, two of them commanding advantages. Frustration from close losses and the team's inability to improve in core aspects of the game has fanbase as restless as it has been in years.

Of course, MU fans have seen this movie before. One year ago Marquette was struggling at 3-5 in Big East play, just up from its nadir of 2-5. The Warriors lost those five conference games by a combined 10 points, two by just a point including an embarrassing loss at DePaul. The season turned around with a solid home win against Rutgers followed by a last-second victory over UConn on the road. Momentum built as Marquette surged in the second half of Big East play, winning 9 of their final 11 regular season conference games.

It's time to move beyond this tombstone as a program*.

Rob gripes that technically Marquette had one double-digit loss last year (vs GU in the BET), but then the picture wouldn't be as funny.

Can the 2010-2011 team follow the same path to success? To do so the Warriors will have to beat the 10th ranked Syracuse Orange (18-3, 5-3) for the first time as a member of the Big EAST, on National Marquette Day. The Orange have their own issues, losing three games in a row, including a shocking 22-point loss at home to the Seton Hall Pirates on Tuesday. The tough stretch has fans wondering if it is time to hit the panic button for the Orange.

Great. Not only is our record atrociously bad on National Marquette Day (at least it seems like it is, though MU is roughly .500 in these games per MU) but Syracuse just seems to have our number. And they have a three game losing streak and will be dying for a win.

There's been enough negativity concerning the program this week. Let's talk about why this year Marquette is going to beat up on all the bad vibes, the National Marquette Day record, and Syracuse.

Looking at the numbers, Syracuse is a good, not great, defensive team and is a very good offensive team. The wild card, of course, is the vaunted Syracuse zone which could give MU fits. Syracuse is also dominant on the baseline, leading the nation in blocks and MU will have no match for Rick Jackson. While Boeheim's zone plays to the size of his baseline, the Orange are effective at defending the three-point shot. Expect a high scoring game... a shootout between two desperate teams. We believe that MU, who shoots and plays much better at home than on the road, simply has too much firepower in front of a packed house.

Tipoff is scheduled for 2pm Marquette Standard Time. The game will be broadcast on ESPNU with announcers Mark Jones and Fran Fraschilla. Go watch at a viewing party near you. Also, this weekend is Sneakers and Suits weekend for Coaches vs Cancer, so look forward to Buzz rocking some gear. (not sure why this is special - I wear sneakers with my suits ALWAYS)

Links

• Here is the GoMarquette preview
• Here are the MU game notes
• Rosiak says that the Orange are feeling the squeeze
• MU grad Chris Altruda previews the game
• Here is the recap of today's live chat with Buzz
  
• Seth Davis picks Marquette to win
• John Rothstein also picks MU to win
• Ken Pomeroy sees a two-point win for MU
• Rosiak on MU looking for a win against the Orange.
• Troy Nunes is An Absolute Magician previews the game.
• CBS Sports previews the game.
  
• The Cuse looks to rebound vs MU.

MU hosts UConn

I know we've been dark here on Cracked Sidewalks for the last several days, thanks for bearing with us as we manage through busy times at the office and with work-related travel. Strangely enough -- via a quirk of unrelated developments -- four of us will be at the UConn game tonight on our blog's 6th birthday. (!!!) Thanks so much for your readership and for making our slice of the interwebs a part of your Marquette basketball experience.

Back to hoops.

So MU (13-7, 4-3) went into South Bend over the weekend and delivered another exquisite second half collapse --- offensively, defensively and Ed Hightowery*. Hey Ed, MU does not need help blowing second half leads, it is something of a signature move. Jimmy Butler summed things up pretty nicely when he said, "We've got to stop relying on our offense so much and guard on the defensive end, and I think everything will start to turn around if we do those things."

Co-sign.

Tonight it is time to get it right with fifth-ranked UConn (16-2, 4-2) in town. With a win the Warriors would move to a comfortable 5-3 in league play but a loss would leave MU at 4-4 with back to back tilts against Syracuse and Villanova to follow. NIT, hello.

Food for thought. MU could not contain Ben Hansbrough off the dribble last weekend. Tonight the Warriors will have to contend with the nation's second-leading scorer, Kemba Walker (25ppg), who's signature move is the dribble drive. Gulp.

Time to sack up, MU. Ken Pomeroy thinks the Warriors have what it takes, predicting a 75-72 win for the good guys.

• Here's the MU podcast for the week.
• MU game notes.
• Rosiak on UConn's strong performance to date.
• Rosiak on Kemba's dominant play.