Know your opponent: Stanford

Kudos to Seth for this comment in the post below (and one before that) about his beloved Stanford Cardinal. So now -- somewhat unplanned -- here is "Know your opponent - Stanford":

**************
Stanford fan here and newcomer to your very impressive blog. I've always had a soft spot for Marquette and Al McGuire was always one of my favorite coaches and commentators: will always remember him goading Arthur Lee into dancing after Stanford advanced to the Final Four ten years ago this month.

As for the two Stanford losses you write about: I think you can discard the loss at Oregon, as it was earlier in the year before Stanford really gelled. When Stanford and Oregon played again in Palo Alto later, Stanford crushed the Ducks.

The loss at USC does, however, provide a template you can look to try to emulate. Sure, Stanford was flat after having a share of the Pac-10 title taken away by the refs at UCLA two nights before, but they were just not focused on the boards enough. Also, USC's bigs are a bit undersized but very athletic and talented, plus their wings and guards are big, strong, and athletic enough to crash the offensive glass. Hayward and Matthews may fit the mold there, which is a big concern for us. The Lopez twins go for the spectacular block too much sometimes; they have to stay home and be content with defending/altering the shot and collecting the rebound.

I'm pretty concerned with the matchup against Lazar Hayward. He looked great against Kentucky. Strong, athletic, and a credible outside threat. Kind of sounds like Mailk Hairston of Oregon. Then again, Robin Lopez shut Hairston down pretty well. (Robin is outstanding at defending bigs that try to score outside the paint: Ryan Anderson of Cal had his way against pretty much everyone this year, but Robin convincingly shut him down twice.)

Our guards are not much offensively unless Goods gets hot, but I like them collectively on defense. Even the weak link Mitch Johnson has improved quite a bit. Darren Collison effectively used screens to hit 12-foot jumpers and had the running teardrop layup in his arsenal to clear the long reach of the Lopez twins. Goods totally shut down talented two guards like Derrick Low and Russell Westbrook in Pac-10 tournament; he will need to bring his "A" game defensively today, as well.

Regarding the "Stanford by the numbers" post -- Stanford has done a good job tightening up its offense in the last part of the year and limiting their turnovers, even against UCLA's monster backcourt.

If you're talking about the last twelve games: Stanford did have a rough patch, losing at Arizona State and barely winning at Arizona. Washington and Goods were dinged up and the defense took a hit because of that, but Washington is looking better than ever now. However, I'd point to their performance in the Pac-10 tournament -- beating Arizona and Washington State before taking UCLA down to the final shot -- as a more accurate indicator of how well they're playing now.

I think we're better than Wisconsin. Don't know that we're as good as Louisville, but we would give them a much better game this year.

Looking forward to an exciting game today!

Thanks Seth!!

The Sweet 16 awaits

UPDATED
Marquette aims to return to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2003 when the Golden Eagles (25-9) take on the Stanford Cardinal (27-7) this afternoon in Anaheim.

After an impressive win against Kentucky, the task grows taller for Marquette this afternoon. The Cardinal are led by the seven-foot twins, Brook and Robin Lopez. Brook Lopez, a sure-fire NBA lottery pick, leads the team with 18 points and 8 rebounds per game. Robin Lopez contributes 10 points, 5 boards and 2.5 blocks per game.

With the Lopez twins anchoring the lane, Stanford is one of the best defensive teams in the nation and they've dominated the backboards all season long, especially on the offensive glass. Per Rosiak, Crean likens the matchup to facing Thabeet and Hibbert in the same lineup - - which might be true if the Stanford pair wasn't better.

So, the antidote to ridiculous height and strength is simple, right? Run, shoot well and crash the boards. Perhaps Ousmane Barro, who will set the Marquette career record for games played today (127) will deliver a magical performance. Or maybe Lazar Hayward has more posterization remaining in his repertoire (read more below).

Seriously though, USC topped the Cardinal 77-64 late in the year despite the acute height disadvantage. USC dominated the backboards, taking home and advantage on both sides of the glass to win the game. The Cardinal also fell at Oregon, a smaller, perimeter oriented team. The Ducks won despite being manhandled on the glass and losing the turnover battle because they converted at the charity stripe and limited the Cardinal to just 16% shooting from beyond the arc. Of course, the Cardinal hitting on just 52% of their free throws helped too.

In this battle of opposites, Stanford appears to have the upper hand but perhaps the Golden Eagles have something on their side, karma. After shedding the weight of unrealized expectations on Thursday, Marquette soars into Saturday's tilt with nothing to lose. For the second week in a row, this group broke through to new heights -- first by advancing to the Big East tournament semifinals, and now by winning an NCAA opening round game. Factor in MU's tough schedule (the Golden Eagles played a whopping 12 games against the RPI top 30), the Big East's 7-1 start in NCAA play, and that marvelous backcourt depth ........ hey, you never know.

In the end, here is what we do know:

• Stanford is ginormous. Marquette is not.
• Marquette is fast and quick. Stanford is not.

Opposites.

Still need more? Henry Sugar has it covered with this boffo analysis of the Cardinal -- and this confidence-related epiphany on MUScoop.

Tip-off is scheduled for 5:45pm CST on CBS. Ring Out Ahoya!

Once again, Cracked Sidewalks will be there to cover the game in-person.

Media Updates

• The San Franscisco Chronicle previews the game (thanks to MLB for the tip)
• SF Chronicle on the Cardinal's concern with Dominic James.
• Chicago Tribune previews the game - hey, with no Flatlander programs in the tourney, they might as well adopt the Warriors.
  
• Rosiak on the off-day in Anaheim.
• Lilliputians take on Gigantaur U -- nice preview by USAToday.
• LATimes: Marquette tries to measure up against Stanford.
• SJMerc says the Cardinal is more athletic than in years past.
• Josh Peter from Yahoo! says MU is tough enough.
• LATimes with the Harbaugh angle.
• AP preview.
• Rosiak on the Stanford 7-footers.
• Oakland Tribune on the game.
• Scout.com previews the game.
  

Getting to Know Stanford - By the Numbers

Here are the Important Numbers to Know about Stanford. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

Stanford has an overall Pomeroy Rating of #10. (Marquette is still at #12) Like Kentucky, Stanford prefers a slower pace to the game at 65 possessions / game, which is #242 in the country.

Stanford's Offensive Efficiency (115.8 - Rank of #25) gets better because of:

• Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) - average of 50.1% (national rank of 155)
• Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) - average of 39.8% (national rank of 7)
  

Like every team, the Cardinal's offense looks to how well they do at field goal percentage. In this area, they are average. However, as one might expect for a team with two seven-footers, they do an outstanding job at offensive rebounding. Digging into Stanford's offensive numbers further, they are #6 in the country at not getting blocked and they shoot one of the lowest amount of threes in the country (#316).

Stanford's Defensive Efficiency (86.2 - Rank of #6) gets better because of:

• Limiting Turnovers - average TO Rate of 18.9% (rank of 54)
• Forcing Turnovers - average TO Rate for opponents of 17.8 (rank of 318)

I find it interesting that how often they turn the ball over impacts their defensive efficiency. Obviously, it will be key for Marquette to force a lot of turnovers. Also, their Defensive Efficiency gets worse when:

• Opponents get a good eFG% - average rate of 43.8% (#8 in the country)
• Opponents do well at OR% - average rate of 28.4% (#17 in the country)
  

Stanford is really good defensively, and they don't have any areas that Marquette usually exploits. Offensive Rebounding has been huge for Marquette in the post-season, and tomorrow's game will provide a huge test. Did we also mention that they're #6 in the country at preventing 2-point baskets and #35 in the country at blocking shots? These are just like the strengths of Georgetown, Louisville, and Connecticut.

How well have the Cardinal been playing lately?


Here is some good news. Over their last twelve games, Stanford's Offense and their Defense have been getting worse. In fact, until their rout of Cornell, Stanford was at a point where they were not playing winning basketball. Their ORtg (106.8) and DRtg (99.2) over the last five games are not nearly as impressive as their season numbers. Based on how well they have been playing and how well we have been playing over the last five games (using the Bill James log5 method), the numbers give us a 42% chance of winning the game. Of course, numbers don't play on the basketball court...

Summary
Stanford has better offensive and defensive numbers than Marquette, and they have strengths in areas that have caused us a lot of problems. This is one tough matchup. However, Stanford is impacted on both ends by the Turnover battle, which is an area Marquette will need to win. Plus, the Cardinal have not been playing as well lately, so there are some opportunities for Marquette to exploit.

Finally, remember the lesson from another good team. That team is #1 at defense according to Pomeroy. They don't turn the ball over much, they usually win offensive rebounding, they really limit two point baskets, and they get to the free throw line a lot. They also have a lot of size inside. Marquette managed to do just fine in pulling out a win at Wisconsin thanks to crashing the offensive boards and forcing a lot of turnovers.

Let's Dance: Marquette takes on Kentucky in tourney opener

UPDATED
When Marquette and Kentucky renew acquaintances on Thursday in Anaheim, the Golden Eagles will look to earn their first NCAA tournament win since the magical run to the 2003 Final Four - - a run that included a memorable win over the then top-seeded Wildcats.

Five years later, the roles are reversed and the pressure is squarely on the Golden Eagles. Despite making its third consecutive NCAA tournament appearance, the Marquette fanbase is desperate for a win in March, and as a healthy, higher-seeded team, expectations are understandably high in Warrior Nation.

Against a thin Kentucky squad that goes only six or seven deep, look for the Golden Eagles to commit to a faster pace -- and to drive and dish more than usual. As we saw last week in New York, MU will push the ball off of both makes and misses -- secondary fast break baskets are a vital part of the arsenal -- to create a decidedly up-tempo game that minimizes halfcourt sets.

Of course, we also saw the Ghost of Offensive Despair in the Big East Tournament when MU endured a 13 minute stretch without a made field goal against Pitt .......a bitter reminder of MU's abominable offensive effort against Michigan State in last season's NCAA tournament.

Absent effective shooters, Marquette has struggled against teams that lock down the paint -- much like the Wildcats have done this season. Since January when facing teams that defend the interior exceptionally well -- Louisville, UConn and Georgetown -- Marquette went a combined 0-5 and shot roughly 31% in those games. Realize that UK has a similar defensive profile, but the Wildcats turn the ball over more than just about anybody you'd expect to see in the NCAA tournament. Therein lies a key to the game.

We've already run detailed numbers previews for Kentucky and Marquette -- and now it is finally time for our favorite time of year, Basketball Christmas season. Moreover, Hilltopper says MU won't lose on his birthday. Ah, it really is the most wonderful time of the year (if MU wins on Thursday). Anyway, here is the boiled down version for the game. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

Top Five Numbers to Know about Marquette v. Kentucky

• 80% - Pomeroy predicts an 80% chance of Marquette victory
• 291 - Kentucky's rank at protecting the ball
  
• Kentucky turns the ball over on almost one out of every four possessions
• Marquette is #48 in the country at forcing turnovers
• 25 - Kentucky's rank at getting to the Free Throw line
• They get to the line 30% of the time that they take a shot
• Marquette is #264 in the country at preventing our opponents from shooting free throws
• 63.9 - Average number of possessions for Kentucky
• This is one of the slowest paces in the country (#281)
• Tempo will play a huge role in the game
  
• 6 - The rank of Marquette's defense according to Pomeroy
• This is anchored by our tough perimeter defense at getting steals (#5 in the nation) and preventing three-pointers (#3 in the nation)
• Be confident that we have an elite defense

Tipoff is scheduled for 1:30pm CDT on CBS.

MEDIA UPDATES

• Don't forget to join the Cracked Sidewalks/MUScoop pick'em contest -- just for fun.
• The Journal-Sentinel has a cool widget that breaks down the individual matchups for the game here.
• Rosiak blogged overnight -- good info on UK and more.
• Kentucky Sports Radio (ESPN Radio in Louisville's blog) previews the game. Nice work Matt!
• Yahoo! on the Blue Collar Cats.
  
• Nick Williams was named Alabama 6A Player of the Year (Tip: John Pudner) by the Alabama Sports Writers Association. Congratulations, Nick, and we're excited to have you join the team next year. By the way, don't forget to check out Nick Williams' wiki page.
• The Omaha World-Herald has a great story about the fight between Bernard Toone and Al McGuire in 1977 (Tip: Ben), which helped kick-start MU's run to the National Championship. Great story, although I think that such events would receive decidedly less favorable coverage in 2008.
• The SportsLifer wonders if there is a Cinderella to be had this year (he figures MU was one in 2003).
• Rosiak says MU wants to avoid the slow starts that have plagued them in the NCAAs.
  
• Lunardi picks MU to win by 15 in the opening round.
• CBS Sportsline gives MU the nod too over UK as well.
• Seth Davis -- well, he picks MU to fall short against the Wildcats. However, Wisconsin native Luke Winn sees MU flying into the Sweet 16. Nice.
• Chicago Tribune on UK - - happy to be back in the tourney.
• Buzz Williams talks up his old boss, Billy Gillispie.
• The Louisville Courier-Journal talks about the impact of the 2003 MU win over UK on the recruiting trail.

This post is a joint contribution by Henry Sugar and NYWarrior

Know Thyself - Marquette's Numbers

Now that we've gone through an entire regular season, Marquette fans have a pretty good idea of what to expect. Or do we? After all, it's fairly common for fans to say that Marquette needs to force a lot of turnovers (true) or hit their three pointers (not quite true) in order to win. Therefore, in an effort for MU to "Know Thyself", we wanted to take a dive into the numbers for Marquette.

Marquette's Pomeroy Rating is #12. In fact, we've been hovering around the Top 10 all season, so we certainly are better than our seed (at least according to Pomeroy).

Marquette's Offensive Efficiency (Rank of #38) depends on:

• Our effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) and... that's it.
• Seriously, how well we do on offense basically boils down to the field goal percentage that Marquette achieves. For the season, our eFG% averages 50.7% (national rank of 141)
  
• Unfortunately, our offensive efficiency rank has been falling in the last month or so. The current rank of 38 is our lowest of the season and we are especially trending poorly at eFG%. Not. Good.
  

Of course, looking at the MU Scouting Report, we can see that MU is good in two other areas offensively.

• Marquette is #27 in the country at Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)
  
• We are #48 in the country at Turnover Rate (protecting the ball).
  

As we see below, OR% has been somewhat up and down for the whole season, but has been trending favorably lately. Marquette was ferocious on the boards in the Big East Tournament, and Kentucky is average at best at preventing Offensive Rebounds.

Where our team has really been good has been on the defensive end. Marquette's Defensive Efficiency (Rank of #6) depends on:

• Our Opponent's effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%)
  
• MU is #25 in the country at eFG% defense, holding opponents to an eFG% of 45.9%
  
• Our Opponent's Turnover Rate
• Marquette is #35 in the country at forcing turnovers, forcing a turnover rate of 23.9%, or almost one in four possessions
  
• Our Opponent's Free Throw Rate - if they shoot more free throws, then our defense suffers
  
• MU is #264 in the country at preventing their opponent from getting to the line
  

One can see that Marquette's defense is based on limiting our opponents from getting easy shots, and by forcing a lot of turnovers. How is Marquette able to limit our opponents and force turnovers? We are #3 in the country at three-point defense and we are #5 in the country at stealing the ball. Our perimeter defense is really quite good. Considering that Kentucky has adjusted their game plan to start on the perimeter more, that's a good sign for Marquette.

As is surely no surprise to Marquette fans, when we foul our opponents a lot we tend to lose. Fouls are going to play a huge role in this game on both sides.

Summary
How does Marquette win? Marquette has established their ability to win on the defensive end. Everything derives from the defensive pressure on the perimeter. Unfortunately, our offensive capabilities are not at the same level.

The last two NCAA tournament games have been an exaggeration of that team's capabilities. In 2006 (overall rating of 28 ; 7 seed in tournament), our Steve-Novak-driven offense was better than our defense, and that team got torched defensively by Alabama. In 2007 (overall Pomeroy rating of 38 ; 8 seed in tournament), our defense was better than our offense, and without Jerel McNeal we... let's not rehash the Michigan State game again. The fear is clearly that this year's team will falter offensively.

However, unlike the last two years, Marquette has a much stronger Pomeroy rating and we are underseeded instead of overseeded. In addition, this year's team doesn't just have a good defense. We have an elite defense that can help propel us forward.

Know your opponent: a fan's perspective on the Kentucky Wildcats

.......ah, time to go back to one of our favorite formulas here at Cracked Sidewalks, the venerable 'know your opponent' Q/A. Today we're pleased to welcome Brandon Eaves, a die-hard Kentucky basketball fan who was kind enough to get us smart on the Wildcats. Brandon posts regularly on TheCatsDomain - - here u go.......

Like MU, UK looks to be a perimeter-oriented team. Can you describe their style of play?
UK is a team that really focuses on defense first and foremost. Offensively, UK likes to keep to game in the 60-70 point range. They try to limit the number of possessions that each team has and are deliberate in their half court sets and will wait until the shot clock gets under 10 seconds before executing their play. They are perimeter oriented to the degree in that they like to start their offense from there but they aren’t really a 3-point shooting team primarily. UK will take the 3 when it’s open but they will usually look to take the ball to the basket first and foremost. Overall, the style of UK could be described as precision based. The Wildcats take a lot of time setting up their plays, but it doesn’t feel like they are slowing the game down. You’ll see what I mean on Thursday.

Seniors Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford lead the Wildcats in scoring, and are both very efficient offensive players. What should MU look for from the Wildcats' backcourt aces?
Bradley is the brains and Crawford is the muscle. Another way to say it is that Bradley is the trigger and Crawford is the bullet. With Bradley you will see a guy who is very smooth, very collected, and very smart. He is an excellent ball handler, solid scorer, and great passer. Nearly everything UK does on offense will run through Bradley. He has the ability to drive to the basket and hit from the outside. There have been games where he single-handedly was the reason UK won the game. He is a scorer but he will look for the assist first.

Joe Crawford is the type of player that you really never want to have to leave your program. Joe is a guy that will very quietly put 35 points on you if you don’t keep him in check; and if you do try to keep in him check he will still go for 24 points against you. He is not as skilled of a ball handler as Bradley, but he is a much more dominant scoring threat and he will get in the mix of things and pull out a fair share of rebounds. He is a well built, stocky, guard that only needs a small sliver of space to burn his defender. He can hit the 3 from about 25 feet consistently so teams need to put someone on him all the time. Zone defenses will get torn apart if Crawford isn’t specifically targeted.

Crawford and Bradley are the stars of the team. You should expect to see both of them handle the ball a lot and they will most likely play almost all of the game.

What kind of opponent do the Wildcats have the the most success against?
It’s kind of hard to say. UK has played against several types of strategies this season and they have had success in the second half of the season after the team came together. However, teams that rely heavily on one or two people to be the scorers or the main playmakers generally have a tough time against UK.

What kind of opponents can make the Wildcats struggle?
Teams that like to get up and down the court and score in the 80-90 and up point range tend to give UK problems. UK doesn’t have a very deep bench so keeping players as fresh as they can be is a priority for UK.

Despite losing losing Patrick Patterson, the Wildcats didn't miss a beat down the stretch. Did the team adapt its style of play after Patterson was lost for the season?
They did. When Patterson was in the game the idea was to go to Patterson first and let him dominate the inside. Now that Patterson is out, the idea is for everything to start with Bradley or Crawford. UK went from an inside-out mentality to an outside-in mentality. It seems to have worked for them.

We've talked about the stars - - is there another player on the UK roster that might surprise everybody with a breakthrough performance on Thursday?
Keep an eye on Perry Stevenson and Derrick Jasper. Stevenson will come in off the bench but he is a tremendous shot blocker with his long arms and lanky body. Jasper is a guy that has been streaky this season, but if he’s on he’s fantastic. Stevenson is also very good at blocking free throws, so you guys better be ready! :-)

Brandon, thanks for your time!

Round 3: Marquette takes on Seton Hall in MSG

UPDATED
The sixth-seeded Marquette Golden Eagles will take on the 11th seeded Seton Hall Pirates in the opening round of the 2008 Big East Championship on Wednesday night. Tipoff is scheduled for 8pm CST on ESPN.

Marquette beat the Hall twice during the regular season. At the Bradley Center in January, MU outlasted the Pirates in an ugly, low-scoring affair, 61-56. Home cooking was no better for the Pirates as MU raced out to a 30-10 lead and never looked back, coming away with an 89-64 win.

Seton Hall arrives at MSG in a world of hurt. The Pirates have lost three in a row and eight of ten, including a gut-wrenching loss to rival Rutgers to close the regular season. The RU loss threw SHU head coach Bobby Gonzalez for a loop, leading to a series of embarrassing remarks during and after that game.

Perhaps Marquette can take advantage of the death spiral that is building around the Pirates' season. The Golden Eagles (22-8, 11-7) finished the conference season with back-to-back losses, and will look to recapture the momentum that carried the team to a five-game win streak through much of February.

The most interesting matchup pits Dominic James against SHU's resident thug, senior guard Jamar Nutter. It was Nutter who delivered a harsh intentional foul on James back in January, a collision that injured the Marquette point guard's wrist hindering his play for weeks. Nutter continued the rough play with a forearm shiver to James' chops during the Hall's embarrassing home loss to MU, earning an ejection from the game. Will Nutter go for the three-peat?

For a quick reminder on how MU won the first two meetings, look inside the numbers:

• Seton Hall numbers recap, Game 1 where MU won despite one of its worse offensive performances of the season.
• Seton Hall numbers recap, Game 2 where MU delivered a devastating offensive performance highlighted by Yeoman's work on the offensive glass.

Key Numbers to Watch

• Seton Hall protects the ball exceptionally well, turning it over just 16.7% of the time -- good for 9th in the country. Meanwhile, MU forces opponents to cough the ball up nearly 25% of the time. If MU wins the turnover battle, the path to victory will be clearer.
• The Pirates are a middle of the road offensive team, only generating an eFG% of 48% - - 228 teams are more efficient than the Hall.
• Defense continues to be a problem for the Pirates who allow opponents a horrendous 51.6% eFG percentage (248th in the nation). Moreover the Hall cedes the glass with little fight - the Pirates are 314th in the nation in preventing offensive rebounds.

The net: If MU turns the Hall over and attacks the offensive glass, expect good things for the Golden Eagles. If not, we could be in for a nail biter against a lesser opponent.

Media Links

• Marquette game notes
• Big East Basketball Report preview
• Asbury Park Press
• Chicago Tribune preview (hello DePaul fans!)
• Star-Ledger preview focuses on Eugene Harvey
• Rosiak on the Nutter/James drama
  
• The Buffalo News profiles the maturing Lazar Hayward
• BIG EAST CAST delivers an outsanding podcast preview of the BET
  

Marquette Closes Out Regular Season Against Syracuse

Fresh off of a dominating defensive victory over Florida Gulf Coast, Marquette (22-7, 11-6) now readies itself for their final regular season game of the year. On Saturday, Marquette will face a Syracuse squad that is 18-12 (8-9). The game will be broadcast on ESPN at 3 pm Milwaukee time. John Saunders and Len Elmore will be on the sidelines for MU's 13th national broadcast of the season.

The Orange are firmly off the bubble, but are looking to close out with a strong run and hopeful NCAA berth. In fact, Andy Katz has an article talking about Syracuse and the bubble. Due to injuries, the 'Cuse have been relying on seven players, including some talented freshmen and sophomores. At this point, Syracuse is a team that has been backed into a corner, so Marquette will have a very difficult time emerging with the win.

On the other hand, despite the heartbreaking loss to Georgetown, Marquette has mostly been playing well in the last seven games. This is especially true on the defensive end, and MU wants to recapture momentum heading into the post season. If nothing else, a loss to Syracuse will result in the team finishing sixth in the Big East (behind West Virginia). Barring an extended run in the Big East Tournament, a loss will almost certainly cost Marquette a seed in the NCAA tournament. For a fan base that is craving for the team to fulfill expectations of postseason success, good seeding will play a major role.

After players return from injuries, and Boeheim welcomes a solid recruiting class, the true window for Syracuse will be next year anyways. Let's look for Marquette to extinguish 'Cuse's NCAA hopes tomorrow. Our window is this year.

Top Five Numbers to Know about Syracuse
As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• 26 - Syracuse's national rank at pace
• The Orange play one of the quicker tempos in Division 1 at just under 72 possessions per game
• Pace is actually positively correlated with Syracuse's offensive efficiency. In other words, the quicker the pace for the game the better Syracuse does offensively.
• Considering that they play their vaunted 2-3 zone and typically only utilize seven players, this is actually somewhat of a puzzle
• 21.6% - This is the Turnover Rate that Syracuse has on offense
• The 'Cuse have a national rank of 204
• As we have previously discussed, this is a good sign for Marquette's defense
• 19 - Syracuse's rank at Offensive Rebounding Percentage
• The Orange are one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country
• Marquette needs to do a good job on the defensive glass
• 10 - Syracuse's national rank for block percentage
• Syracuse averages a block rate of 15.5%
• In the past, Marquette has struggled against teams that do a good job of blocking shots (UConn, Louisville, Georgetown)
• However, the rest of Syracuse's defense is only average (rank of 116)
  
• 53.8% - The field goal percentage that Syracuse averages on two-point baskets
• This is a rank of 14 among Division 1 schools
• A lot of this is due to the efforts of 6'9" sophomore Arinze Onuaku, who has an personal effective Field Goal Percentage of 64.7%. That's 17th best in the country.
• In contrast, Syracuse only averages 33.3% from three point land, which is only 247th in the country

In summary, Syracuse's strengths are their inside play. They do an excellent job of scoring two-point baskets, collecting offensive rebounds, and blocking shots. However, their overall defense is only average. In addition, although Syracuse likes to play a faster pace, this won't seem to harm Marquette. Look for the key to this game to hinge on how well our defense pressures Syracuse into more turnovers than they usually commit. Of course, this is no different than our usual game plan, but even more so given the Syracuse zone.

Media Updates (stay tuned for more links)

• ESPN 360 Preview of the Game
• GoMarquette.com preview
• Game Notes from GoMarquette.com
• Rosiak's Blog is live from Syracuse
  

Senior Day: Marquette hosts FGCU

On Tuesday night the Marquette Golden Eagles (21-7, 11-6 in the Big East) wrap up their home schedule when they host the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (10-20, 6-10 in the Atlantic Sun).

OK........look, this game will not come ready-made with adrenaline like last weekend's thrilla against the Hoyas. FGCU was a Blue & Gold Classic commit before that event circled the drain, so MU slotted the game into the last week of the season to jack up the ol' post-season resume. Some are asking 'what is the point of this game' -- here are some answers from the community at MUScoop.

Big deal, the point is that Tuesday is Senior Night for a group of players who have collectively worked their fannies off to represent Marquette exceptionally well on and off the court. So, if you live local get to the BC tonight to thank these four soon-to-be MU graduates:

Ousmane Barro
The lone four-year member of this year's senior class, Ousmane Barro is one of the most experienced players in school history. He has appeared in 120 career games, earning 61 starting assignments, and is currently ranked among the program's top all-time performers in blocks and field goal percentage. He has swatted 91 opposing shot attempts since his arrival in Milwaukee to rank 8th all-time and his 55.9 percent clip from the floor is currently second all-time.



Lawrence Blackledge
He has appeared in 40 career games, earning one starting assignment since arriving from the junior college ranks. He owns game averages of 1.7 points and 1.5 rebounds per outing and has connected on 53.6 percent of his shot opportunities. He is second on the team in 2007-08 in blocks.


Dan Fitzgerald
Forward Dan Fitzgerald will conclude his career at Marquette as one of the top long-distance shooters in program history. He is currently ranked seventh all-time in 3-point field goal percentage (40.8 percent) and owns 107 treys since transferring from Tulane. He has appeared in 88 career games with 17 starts and has knocked down numerous key baskets for the Golden Eagles during his tenure.


Tommy Brice
Tommy Brice has appeared in 21 career games for the Golden Eagles during the past three seasons. He owns a personal-best eight appearances in 2007-08 and netted his first career point with a free throw against Sacramento State on Dec. 15.

Gentlemen, thanks for your hard work and dedication to Marquette University. Enjoy YOUR DAY at the Bradley Center on Tuesday.

Tipoff is scheduled for 7pm CST. The game will be broadcast by Time Warner cable.
Media Updates

• Marquette Game Notes. (**which provided the background for the player detail above, thanks!)
• Appleton Post Crescent preview
• Rosiak on the departing seniors
• FGCU preview written around one of their senior's struggles.
• Scout.com preview

Marquette Battles Georgetown on National TV

The schedule makers couldn't have done a better job of pitting Marquette against Georgetown this Saturday afternoon at the Bradley Center. The Hoyas, tied with Louisville for first place in the Big East, have won three in a row. Marquette, winners of five straight, are surging and looking to secure favorable seeding in both the Big East tournament and the NCAA tournament. This game is huge for Marquette, and Georgetown needs the win to stay in the running for the Big East championship.

Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm CST. The game will be broadcast on CBS. Here's hoping Clark Kellogg comments on Marquette's "spurtability" early and often during the broadcast. To win this game, MU must force turnovers and dictate a quicker pace to create (hopefully) easier opportunities against the stingy Hoya defense.

Saturday is also National Marquette Day. If you are unable to watch the game live, then get out there with alums in your city and watch it in a group setting. We Are Marquette!

Media Updates - tons of links!
CBS Sportsline video preview
Rivals.com with an outstanding preview
Washington Times on the Hoyas' quest for the top seed in the BET
Hoya Hoops with a numbers preview
Scout.com preview
Marquette.com preview and game notes
Hoya Saxa with a preview
College Hoops Net with a great preview
Seth Davis picks us to win
ESPN's Weekend Watch Highlights Dominic James
Rosiak's blog has a great preview with lots of strategy comments by Crean

Stats Breakdown
Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Georgetown. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• #7 - Rating for the Hoyas effective Field Goal (eFG%) offense
• Georgetown is number seven amongst Division 1 programs for their effective Field Goal Percentage
• This is due to hitting a high percentage (#5) overall of two-point field goals - almost 56%
  
• #1 - top rating for effective Field Goal Defense
• That's right. Georgetown is the number one team in the country at effective Field Goal defense - limiting opponents to 41.7%
• Inside the arc, opponents get 40.1% field goal percentage, which is #3 in the country
  
• Georgetown is also good at defending on the three point line (29.8%), which is #10 in the country
• 320 - The national rank for Georgetown's pace
• The Hoyas only average 62 possessions / game, which is one of the slowest paces in the country
  
• Georgetown is a classic example of the value for tempo free (possession-based) stats
  
• 13.7% - Block rate for Georgetown
  
• This is good enough to be Top 10% in the country (#27 overall), or a block about once every seven shots
  
• 20.2% - Turnover Rating that Georgetown averages on offense
  
• TO Rate plays a large role in both Offensive and Defensive Efficiency for Georgetown
• Signs of hope! Marquette wins the turnover battle consistently! and does a lot better when our opponents are worse than average (20%)
  
• Georgetown only forces a 19.2% Turnover Rate for Defense, so expect Marquette to protect the ball fairly well
  

Basically, Georgetown is exceptional at two things... making and preventing two-point baskets. Even more troubling, there are a lot of the similarities between the areas of expertise for UConn, Louisville, and Georgetown. All three teams do well at effective Field Goal defense, two-point field goal defense, and blocking shots. This is a real concern for Marquette, and we expect that everyone should just prepare themselves to watch our half-court offense look very ugly.

However, there are some definite opportunities. Marquette has been outstanding at forcing turnovers lately, and our ball-pressure could really challenge Georgetown's guards. If we're able to rattle the Hoyas into more turnovers than they want and make this into a transition game, then the Bradley Center crowd will start rocking.

Bonus Stats Coverage

In addition, Georgetown has had some rough patches lately that suggest potential weakness. Certainly, the fact that they were beaten soundly by Louisville, and needed a controversial call in order to defeat Villanova, indicates to the casual observer that Georgetown may not be playing particularly well.

It is certainly true that Georgetown has not been playing as well recently as they represent for the entire season. Don't get too confident, however. The Hoyas appear to be getting back on track both offensively and defensively with trends that are headed in the desired directions (at least for Georgetown).

The good news is that Marquette has been playing great basketball as of late.

Marquette is streaking, and unlike the Hoyas, we are playing better right now that we have been for the entire season. Note that Marquette's efficiency for the year is completely comparable to Georgetown's. In front of a rabid home crowd and a national audience, it could be a very enjoyable Saturday afternoon.

*post is a joint contribution from NYWarrior and Henry Sugar

Big Monday, bigger opportunity

Marquette visits the Villanova Wildcats on Monday night, the Golden Eagles' second appearance on the Big East's weekly ESPN showcase. The Golden Eagles (20-6, 10-5), winners of four straight, will have to notch another conference road win to keep pace with the upper echelon of the Big East in hopes of sneaking in for a first round bye in the Big East tournament.

Tipoff is scheduled for 6pm CST on ESPN.

Like Marquette, Villanova (17-9, 7-7) is one of the hottest teams in the Big East as the winners of three in a row and four of their last five. On Saturday, the Wildcats upset UConn 67-65 behind 18 points from Scottie Reynolds and Corey Stokes. Villanova is paced by Reynolds, the 2006-2007 Big East freshman of the year, at better than 16 points per game. Freshman Corey Fisher and senior Dante Cunningham each clock in with 10 points per game.

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Villanova. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• 72% - Pomeroy forecasts a 72% chance of Marquette victory
• Be very cautious about this one... and just remember that we were predicted as favorites to beat UConn and Louisville (both times)
• 63 - Villanova's ranking for Defensive Efficiency according to Pomeroy
  
• Contrast that with Marquette's rank of 9
  
• 89.7 - Villanova's Defensive Efficiency averaged over the last five games
• This means that opponents are scoring less than 0.90 points / possession
• The defense has really picked up for the Cats in their recent surge
• Skeptical? It also includes wins against WVU, UConn, and the near-win against Georgetown (who was held to 0.87 points / possession)
• 19.4% - The Turnover Rate for Villanova's offense
• This TO Rate is slightly better than average, and if Marquette is able to force them above 20% turnover rate, then we should be okay
• 330 - Villanova's national rank at Free Throw Rate defense
• And we thought Marquette (rank of 266) did a poor job of this
• Let's all hope that the refs let the team play a little bit, or we're all in for a long night

Honestly, we really struggled with the numeric preview for Villanova. It's not like they have an overwhelming set of information that helps predict when they do well. In addition, the Pomeroy Scouting report doesn't really point to any significant strength. Finally, their team has been fairly inconsistent at both offensive and defensive efficiency, which is a good indicator of such a young team. If Marquette manages to play as they have been playing, which is through turnovers and pushing the pace, then we should be okay. That will lead to easy baskets and opportunities to get to the line.

Media Links

• MU preview/game notes
• Philly Inquirer on the confident Wildcats
• Rosiak on Christopherson's patience
• Appleton Post-Crescent game preview
• Scout.com preview
  
• I Bleed Blue and White with a preview of tonight's game from the 'Nova perspective
  
• Let's Go Nova with another Villanova preview
  

Surging Marquette looks for fourth straight win

UPDATED
The Marquette Golden Eagles, winners of three straight, will look to extend their win streak when the struggling Rutgers Scarlet Knights visit the Bradley Center this afternoon. After playing uninspired basketball for nearly a month, Marquette (19-6, 9-5) recaptured its early-season intensity and rhythm late in the loss at Notre Dame and promptly pounded their next three opponents, two of them on the road.

The Golden Eagles appear to be peaking at the right time, and much of the credit for the recent run goes to improved play of Dominic James. In the last four games, James has a gaudy A/TO ratio of seven to one. 7 to 1! Perhaps not so coincidentally, James has also seen a spike in minutes played, logging at least 31 minutes in each of the last four games - his longest stretch of consecutive 30+ minute games this season. For MU the equation is simple once more -- good things happen when James is healthy and taking charge on the floor.

With James playing well and Jerel McNeal turning in back-to-back solid performances, Marquette is a confident bunch. Contrast this with Rutgers, who come to town riding six-game losing streak. The Scarlet Knights played Notre Dame tough last week before falling 73-68 at the RAC. The Scarlet Knights are led by 6'9" JR Inman at 12ppg, though the bulk of the scoring from this group comes from the backcourt. Guards Corey Chandler, Anthony Farmer and Mike Coburn combine to average thirty points per game.

Regardless, points are tough to come by for RU. The Scarlet Knights are last in the Big East in field goal percentage (39%) and make just 65% of their free throw attempts. Still, shooting percentages aren't the only numbers that kept Fred Hill awake all night. Rutgers' Big East worst turnover margin and assist totals don't add up to success against a team with a veteran backcourt, particularly when Marquette is one of the best in league at both steals per game and turnover margin.

Marquette stands to be a hellish matchup for the Scarlet Knights.

With a 13-1 home record this season, MU has every reason to be confident on Saturday. Still, there are plenty of concerns for coach Tom Crean:

• Lazar Hayward: The sophomore has struggled in the last two outings, hampered by foul trouble and a lack of touches on offense. With Trevor Mbakwe in the mix and commanding more playing time, will there be a net loss of effectiveness in Hayward's offensive game?
• Ousmane Barro: The big fella remains an enigma. Barro followed up his 14 point, 12 rebound effort against Pitt with a 6 point, three rebound, five foul effort against St. John's. The Golden Eagles are 18-2 when Barro scores 10 points or more. With odds like that, Barro needs to deliver. Thankfully, it looks like the Great Dwight Burke Experiment is largely over, so Ooze should have a chance to contribute more down the stretch.
  
• Maurice Acker: The little fella has played himself out of the rotation, logging an average of just four minutes per game in MU's last four outings. Acker's disappearance only increases the pressure on David Cubillan to deliver quality minutes at the point. While Cubillan remains a legitimate three-point threat, his east-west tendencies when directing the offense run counter to MU's up and down strengths. Still, it's clear that Acker's minutes are flowing more to James than Cubillan -- and Crean is content to increase James' workload.
  

With a win, Marquette would earn its 20th victory of the season for the fifth time in the Tom Crean era. Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm CST. The game will be broadcast on ESPN Full Court, channel 696 on Directv, as well as SNY.

Media Updates/Links

• Rutgers game notes
• CSTV previews the tilt
• MU game notes
• Rosiak on the 'zest' from Cubillan
• MarquetteHoops preview
• Preview from the Appleton Post-Crescent

MU/SJU Preview @ MSG

#24 Marquette takes on St. John's Redmen at Madison Square Guarden on Wednesday night, 6pm on ESPN2. Marquette will try to extend its 2 game winning streak against the Johnnies, who are 4-9 in Big East Play.

SJU is one game out of the 12th spot in the Big East Tournament and has lost 7 of their last 10. SJU has played RPI Top 50 teams eight times and have lost each and every time.

SJU's Anthony Mason, Jr. returns for his 2nd game after a long stretch on IR with an ankle issue.

I'm not going to mince words: Marquette should win this game handily. MU has an edge on everything. Points/game, FG%, FT%, Defense, Rebounding, Turnovers and Bench quality. But it is a road game, which has given MU the willies.

On top of that, SJU will probably be "looking past" #24 Marquette and gearing up to play @ #5 Duke on Saturday, 2/23. Now that's a gutsy OOC schedule. Can you imagine, 18 Big East games, with Duke in the middle?

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about St. John's. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• 91% - Pomeroy predicts a 91% chance of Marquette victory
• Remember that these predictions are more accurate (for some reason) on home games
  
• We were also 60-70% favorites to defeat Louisville and UConn
• 51 - SJU's rank for Defensive Efficiency
• This is the highest ranking for St. John's at any of the Pomeroy metrics
• However, before getting too cocky, St. John's is also improving at their defense over the last few games
• 228 - St. John's rank for pace
• SJU is another one of those teams that plays at an extremely slow pace, averaging 65.7 possessions / game
• The Johnnies haven't been above 63 possessions in a game in their last six games
• Slowing the pace down has helped St. John's go 3-3
  
• 22.3% - The turnover rate that SJU averages on offense
• 20% is considered average, so this turnover rate is fairly poor at a ranking of 231 out of 341 Division 1 schools
• In the games that SJU wins, they keep their TO Rate under 20%
  
• Marquette is forcing opponents into a TO Rate of 23%, and almost every opponent we face ends up with more turnovers than their average
• 21.9% - The turnover rate that SJU averages on defense
• In other words, SJU also forces their opponents into a lot of turnovers
• Unfortunately for the Johnnies, Marquette is #28 in the country at protecting the ball
  
• We haven't had a worse than average (20%) game at protecting the ball since January 8th... that's ten games!
  

Thanks to a slow pace and an improving defense, St. John's has managed to go 3-3 in their last six games. However, two of the most statistically significant factors for SJU are their ability to protect the ball and force turnovers. In each of these areas, Marquette has a definite advantage. Expect to see our team disrupt the Johnnies' offense and push a faster pace that SJU would like.

Links:

• StatSheet MU vs. SJU
• TheEastCoastBias Blog Preview of SJU vs. MU
• MU Game Notes
• SJU Game Notes
• SJU Media Guide
• NY Post Preview "Ready for Rumble"
• Palladium-Item on DJ
• Rosiak on Mbakwe

And since we're on Mbakwe .. here's a little interview for you:

Marquette hosts Pittsburgh

UPDATED
Fresh off an impressive road win over Seton Hall, Marquette (17-6, 7-5) returns home on Friday to host the gritty Pittsburgh Panthers (19-5, 7-4). Tipoff is scheduled for 8pm on ESPN.

Jamie Dixon, who should be the mid-season favorite for Big East coach of the year, has his Panthers riding high despite losing two key starters early in the season. Absent the talented duo of Levance Fields and Mike Cook, Dixon's crew has won three of their last four outings, including an 82-62 thrashing of Providence on Tuesday night.

Dixon will get half of that injured duo back on Friday - -point guard Levance "Don't Tase Me Bro" Fields will play against MU. That'll be an enormous boost to the Panthers who have resorted to playing senior sharpshooter Ronald Ramon at the point, which marginalized his effectiveness as one of the nation's top three-point threats. Fields has been out since breaking his foot on December 29 against Dayton. Fields missed more time for the foot injury than he did for punching an off-duty police officer, allegedly grabbing for the officer's weapon, and ultimately being tased in an incident outside a strip club last September.

In the absence of Cook, Sam Young is turning in an All-Big East caliber season. The 6'7" forward has blossomed in his junior campaign, pouring in 18 points and grabbing seven boards per outing. Young's offensive game is diverse as he is nailing 40% of this attempts from deep, yet leads the Panthers in free throws attempted. Lazar Hayward figures to draw the tough assignment to slow down Young.

As good as Young has been, MU's toughest matchup figures to be DeJuan Blair, the manchild on the frontline for the Panthers. Blair averages a double double in conference play, and the numbers below show how outstanding his performance this year has been. Led by Blair and Young, the Panthers are one of the best rebounding teams in the league.

With Fields back in the mix, MU will need to hit the floor with the same toughness and energy we saw in Newark earlier in the week. Marquette summoned up the moxie and energy that was missing for much of the Big East season as they silenced the chippy Pirates. The Golden Eagles dominated the Pirates on the glass, held them to just 38% shooting, and had an impressive 13 assists on just 30 made field goals.

Crean's squad played .500 ball during its recent four-game stretch which included three games on the road. Record aside, Marquette showed flashes of becoming the team which dominated Wisconsin and nearly topped Duke in both the Notre Dame loss and the Seton Hall win. In fact, some fans have made it back to Jonestown. If the Golden Eagles expect to make a charge for one of the four first-round byes in the Big East Tournament, a win over the Panthers -- who lead MU by 1/2 a game - - is a must.

MU will honor the 2003 Final Four team at Friday's game, with many former players and coaches expected to be in attendance. In addition, Converse will be filming a TV commercial at the 12-minute mark of the first half. Both activities, combined with a Friday night game, are sure to have the crowd in a raucous mood. Could there be a Dwyane Wade appearance to further pump up the rowdiness?

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Pittsburgh. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• 76% - Pomeroy predicts a 76% chance of victory for Marquette
• 14 - Pitt is the #14 team in the country at Offensive Efficiency
• Think Pitt is winning games with their defense? Their defense is #44 in the country, which is decent but not as strong as their offense.
  
• However, three of Pitt's last six opponents have been held to low Efficiencies
  
• Marquette is the #16 team in the country at Offensive Efficiency and the #17 team in the country at Defensive Efficiency. Will we be able to shut Pitt down?
  
• 8 - Pitt is the #8 team in the country at Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)
• The Panthers secure 41.1% of all potential Offensive Reb