Know Your Opponent: Q&A with Rumble in the Garden

UPDATED

One of the best parts about playing St. John's is the opportunity to get reacquainted with the outstanding Pico Dulce of Rumble in the Garden. We traded Q&As with each other in order to help each other get more familiar. You can find his questions and our answers here.

Without further ado, here are our questions and his responses:

1. STJ has struggled from the field all year -- how have they adjusted to the loss of their best player?

It's very hard to say. On one hand, an easy narrative is "they're lost without D`Angelo Harrison", and at times that is truly true. His ability to actually hit a three changed the offense; he drew attention and defenses worked hard to keep the ball away from him.

On the other hand, he frankly stunk in the month of February. Shooting 26% inside the arc and 24% outside the arc, and taking 12 shots per game to do it is unimpressive, even if he added some passing and rebounding to the mix.

So the Red Storm still can't score. On the upside, the team has moved the ball around with a bit more purpose, especially since Jamal Branch and Sir`Dominic Pointer are seeing more time. But the issues that plague the team aren't tied to Harrison's presence on the floor - it's their style of offense, shot selection - a LOT of long twos (Editors note: we call those MISIBs - for Most Inefficient Shot In Basketball), few shots at the rim or outside the arc, few free throws drawn.

Losing D`Lo has also meant more time for Felix Balamou, who proves how raw he is at least once every game. That said, Balamou brings effort, extreme athleticism (wanna see a guard block a three? Wanna see a guy who could eat a whole apple as he hangs in the air? Balamou.) and getting him on the floor will hopefully hasten his development.

2. What the hell happened at ND?

The game: well, ah… well… ah… here's what I have. In the first half, the Fighting Irish were simply shook, in the mid-90s hip hop sense of the word. They shot 2/9 at the rim, 3/11 from beyond the arc,  3/9 on two-point jumpers, short arming layups and rushing shots while they looked for "the big kid" (Bob Knight voice), Chris Obekpa. Brey was worried about him before the first matchup and they were cognizant of him once again.

That may have been over coaching, because in the second half, caution was tossed to the snowy winds and they assaulted the Johnnies inside and out.

It didn't help that the Storm don't have the reliable shooting to really contest the zone, nor do they have a post presence on offense to draw attention inside.

So they were frustrated. Sir`Dominic Pointer, whose people come out to games in the area (they were in Milwaukee last year, they come to Chicago, etc) was probably the only one playing hard, trying to make plays all over the court (many players were playing rushed, playing frustrated, but Pointer was seeing plays and trying to make them in that 44-14 half). 

I don't condone fighting, and it was hotheaded, but Cameron Biedschied spent a full possession just trying to talk smack with two minutes left, and then tapped Pointer's face. I'm not saying he should have whooped the [expletive deleted]… but I understand. 

3. As a St Johns fan, what are the key things you will look for early in Saturday's game that could spell either doom or success for the Johnnies?

Defense. If St. John's can make the interior a miserable place, they're on the right track. And an outlier offensive performance from a few players wouldn't hurt. Right now, the players that I would predict to break out are sidelined, so the offense falls to the 43% shooting JaKarr Sampson (mostly on long jumpers) and the 30% (overall) shooting of Phil Greene.

4. Looks like the profile of the team is young, decent defensively, but has no offensive game. Is that a fair characterization?

I started mentioning it in 1 and 3, and yes - good defense, even great in stretches (great transition defense when it's on - trailers who can block shots). But the offense looks lost a lot, and even more so without the shot creator Harrison to run a pick and roll at the top of the key. On offense, they don't do anything well except for hold on to the ball. They have amazingly putrid halves of basketball when they can;t get out in transition.

5. Give us your opinions on the new Big EAST. On a scale from delighted to thrilled, where do you stand in general?

Can you see my butt shaking from side to side, like I'm hearing a sweet 70's groove (think Aretha Franklin's "Rock Steady")? Pretty excited. I hope Fox is solid with the online content and won't be charging 19.99/ month for access like they do for Fox Soccer2Go. And if the channels can be available via cable and DirecTV, I'll be pretty excited. As for the deal itself, what an incredible and fortunate lifeline!

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Thanks Pico. Good luck on Saturday, but not too much. We've got a championship to win!

MUTV Sports recaps the home loss to St Johns

An unhappy, but excellent recap.

Crucial test failed. MU at season crossroads

Marquette had a golden opportunity tonight to win a key game at home against a quality St. John's club and take a step closer to a NCAA tournament bid. In the process, they would be on their way to possibly another double digit win season in the Big East, a record they have never missed since joining the conference. It would require passing a crucial test against a club that has been iffy on the road this year in the Red Storm. The Warriors failed this test on Al's night and now faces a critical crossroads in their season.

MU found themselves in a similar situation as other games, a solid lead in the second half (7 points) only to watch it whither away in a matter of moments. This time, however, MU couldn't claw back and almost seemed to accept their fate.

It all started to unwind just after the 16:50 mark with MU up 45 to 38. In the next five minutes the Johnnies go on a 15-5 run with no MU timeouts called (there were two tv timeouts in that period). That followed with another run of 7-2 before Buzz called a T.O and the Golden Eagles trailing 60-52 with 9:21 to play. The game was effectively over right there. The Storm pushed the lead to 13 points before MU was able to claw back to within 8 briefly. By the time the game ended, MU had dropped an 80-68 decision and a significant blow to their NCAA tournament hopes.

Another dismal defensive performance as MU gave up 80 points on their home court. A whopping 18 turnovers were committed, the highest in the Buzz Williams era we believe. What's worse, the offensive juggernaut that was the mainstay of MU seems to have disappeared. The third straight game of scoring less than 70 points as MU shot an anemic 22% from beyond the arc and less than 44% overall. The Warriors free throw shooting was about the only thing keeping them in the game.

Box Score


Buzz Williams and MU now face a critical crossroads to their season. They are 6-7 in the Big East and 15-11 overall. Their RPI after the loss now sits at 66, below such teams as Michigan, Penn State, Marshall, Dayton and a slew of other teams considered outside of the NCAA tournament discussion. Was tonight the fatal blow for their chances or do they gather themselves and turn it around? They will be favored to win 3 of their final 5 which would leave them with a 9-9 record. It is not inconceivable to see them go 4-1 with a win at Seton Hall, but it's equally not inconceivable to think the team might have given up. I don't think Buzz will let them do that, but the body language in this game was difficult to watch. A few boo birds came out amongst some of the crowd, either as a result of frustration or what might have been perceived as a lack of urgency in such a crucial game.

With a NCAA field of 68 teams, largest in NCAA history and a team that has been largely viewed as "safely in" the field the last month, the latest turn is not good news. A lot of pride and a season can be salvaged over the next five games, beginning with a must win against a tough Seton Hall team at the Bradley Center this weekend. It's do or die time, a loss to the Hall at home would be the final blow. Time to regroup because there is time for nothing else.

Know your opponent: St. John's

Real Chili. Miss Katie's Diner. Marquette Gyros.

Yes indeed the Marquette Warriors are back in town, hosting St. John's and looking for some home cooking after a three-game road swing that saddled the program with two tough losses. The Warriors enter the game at 15-10 overall and 6-6 BIG EAST. Despite the rough road trip, Marquette remains on the right side of the bubble thanks to a strong strength of schedule. And with only one RPI top 25 team remaining on the regular season schedule, it's time for the Warriors to push for an NCAA bid.

The Johnnies are also enjoying life in the neighborhood of the bubble and are coming off of a clutch win at Cincinnati on Sunday. The win capped a breakthrough week for the Redmen, who blew out UConn at MSG thanks to Dwight Hardy's career-high 33 points. Hardy was named the BIG EAST player of the week for his efforts. St. John's stands at 15-9 overall and 7-5 in the BIG EAST.

Now it's time to learn more about the Johnnies and we're pleased to welcome the inimitable Pico Dulce from Rumble in the Garden for a Q/A about his resurgent Red Storm. By the way, if you'd like to see our assessment of MU -- please click here for our contribution to his site.

Pico, take it away -------------------

When SJU has been good this year, the Johnnies have been very good (Duke, UConn) but when the team has been bad, well (Fordham, Bonnies, Cuse at MSG). What makes the Johnnies so volatile?
The Red Storm (I'm okay using that name, though I'll use Johnnies as well) have some stylistic issues. The way they press and recover, along with how they run their matchup zone (with an eye towards trapping) makes for some exciting results... and some volatile ones as well. So a team that sets its feet and starts hitting threes - especially without turning over the ball - can really run up the score. The way the Johnnies play D, they don't actually get a lot of non-turnover stops compared to many other teams.

In the case of Cuse and the Big East losses, those are games where the Johnnies just lost control of the pace, tried to make plays that weren't there, or got into foul trouble. The team isn't deep, and their margin for error is thin. So when they start making mistakes, they can balloon into something ugly.

I think that's part of what grated UCLA fans' gears about Lavin - the team isn't predictable like a many other coaches' teams. When things are going great, they can smoke opponents like an old John Woo movie. And when they fall apart, the team looks wholly incompetent.

Which player has benefited most from Steve Lavin's system?
Justin Brownlee. Dwight Hardy was always a shooter, and simply gets more time on the court (and has improved his game as well), but Brownlee has become a much better decision-maker. The ball often goes through him on a possession, and Lavin takes advantage of his versatility. Brownlee can catch-and-shoot, can snake in the lane for layup, can hit a short jumper, can shoot from outside, and even has a little hook/ post-up move in his arsenal.

Last year Brownlee seemed to have two moves - the dunk in transition (which he still has), and the Bad Idea Early Offense Jumpshot. It happens from time to time, but much less than it used to.

Defensively St. John's remains a work in progress, struggling to stop opponents from shooting well but turning them over at a high rate. Can you comment on Lavin's defensive philosophy?
Aw, nerds! I did that above. More detail: Lavin likes the matchup zone, likes different kinds of pressure. Wants constant pressing from his teams. He'll look to institute traps to force non-ballhandlers to make decisions, and he has a solid pickoff man in D.J. Kennedy. I think Lavin would like to also have a lockdown FG defense team in his mind, but the style he institutes doesn't show that focus; Lavin's philosophies center on the turnover ratio - smart passing on one end, and constant pressure on the other end.

What is the one thing you'll look for early in the game to indicate if the Johnnies will surge or struggle against MU?
Not one thing. The Johnnies - much like last year, actually - can compete for long stretches, until their offensive weaknesses catch up to them. Then the other team goes on a run, the Johnnies start pressing and making mistakes; that's often the team's undoing.

But if St. John's can force turnovers early and draw some fouls inside - let's say, if the Johnnies can get into the bonus by the 10 minute mark in the first half, I'll think the Red Storm are working their game the way they would like it to be worked.

As you know Monday is Al McGuire Night at the Bradley Center. As a St. John's fan happily living in the Midwest what are your impressions of what he meant to St. John's (or New York) basketball?
uh... I didn't know it was Al McGuire night! To be honest - and to be a bad basketball historian - I just know he was one of St. John's greats and he was awesome at getting that NYC talent to leave NY in a time when Wisconsin was like a different country.

Steve Lavin has changed the vibe on campus for Johnnies hoops. Is the team meeting expectations so far this season -- and where do you expect this team to land up in March?
This team is exceeding expectations, slightly. I thought they would eke out some wins and grind out a 9-9 or 8-10 conference record. I didn't think they would blast Duke, I never would have thought they would have won at West Virginia. They're in some ways fun to watch, and in other ways frustrating. Which is a lot of what I expected. I expected a better offense, honestly, and a better FG defense; taking on multiple 15+ point losses is tough to watch and colors peoples' perceptions of a team (and the coach).

Before last week, I might have said that I expect them to be in the First Four in the NCAA Tournament - assuming they take care of DePaul, Seton Hall, South Florida, and another team. Now? I almost have expectations. I think Lavin has always been fantastic at getting a team to perform loose and effectively during the NCAA Tournament, and the Red Storm are showing that when they get to run. If they don't face a strong interior presence and/or really tall/ long team on the wings, they might actually make the Sweet Sixteen - probably better than what half of the Big East will do, honestly. And it's not because I think they're particularly talented; more because they profile like a mid-major Sweet Sixteen team when they're at their best. Dwight Hardy is the one man show - the Harold Arceneaux, if you will - with a good set of players around him.

Bonus: Admit it ... after moving to Chicago you actually prefer the Midwest to New York. What is your favorite Midwestern comfort food?
I never denied that I prefer the Midwest for living. If I had a LOT more money? I might want to live in NY or Long Island, which I am growing to appreciate. But I like the people, the pace, the space and the ability to actually own things and save money despite paying school loans until I die. It's pretty cool. And biking from place to place. I'm even getting used to driving (though my recent trip to LA helped move the needle on that, strangely).

Comfort food... nothing particularly Midwestern. I like Midwestern beers - the Two Brothers' beers are on point - I like the cheese (and Mars Cheese Castle). I love the burger options. The readily available and good Mexican food. I like how Chicago is quite a foodie city - I wouldn't be so up on things, but my wife is really into food and food policy and food creativity.
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Pico, many thanks!

And yes, tonight is Al's Night at the Bradley Center, an annual highlight for the Warriors faithful.

Warriors face the Johnnies in NYC

In a rematch from last season's Big East Tournament second round, Marquette faces St. John's this afternoon in the World's Most Famous Arena. Tipoff is scheduled for (roughly) 1pm Marquette Standard Time on ESPN.

Yesterday St. John's routed UConn 73-51 to advance. The Johnnies flat-out embarrassed the Huskies, and just about everybody took notice of the weak performance by Calhoun's bunch. Sean Evans led St. John's with 19 points and 10 rebounds.

Marquette and St. Johns meet today for the second time in recent weeks with MU topping the Johnnies 63-61 in overtime last month. In last year's Big East Tournament MU throttled the hapless Johnnies 74-45. The winner of today's game will advance to face the Villanova Wildcats.

Media updates
Marquette game notes
Rosiak on MU's route through the Big East Tournament.
Scout.com previews today's game.
SB Nation recaps yesterday's action and sets the stage for today.

Also, don't forget to follow CrackedSidewalks on Twitter today from the Big East Tournament.

Escape from New York - 35 days after DePaul MU turns the tables to move to 54th in RPI

Same story – different ending.

Just 35 days ago Mo Acker, MUs shortest player, stripped the ball from DePaul only to have it end up in the hands of another player, who nailed a shot with 2 seconds left to beat MU. By the end of that week, MU was down to 80th in the RPI, had won one of it’s last 11 games decided by 2 points or less and had lost seven straight road games dating back to last year. Any illusions of making the NCAA were gone – or so it seemed.

Last night it all happened again, in reverse. This time it was St. John’s shortest player, Malik Boothe, stripping Jimmy Butler as drove toward the basket in the final seconds of overtime. But this time it was Marquette, actually Butler himself, who ran down the loose ball, scooped it up and twisted his body while jumping out-of-bounds and somehow released the ball with 0.7 seconds left on the clock. Anthony Mason Jr., 6-foot-7 son of the former NBA great, jumped perfectly but missed rejecting the desperation shot by inches and after it hung in the air for what seemed like an eternity, it swished pure to give MU an overtime winner, 63-61.

As for that tattered NCAA resume from 35 days ago, MU finished the night 54th in the RPI, and has now won four straight road games as well as four straight games decided by three points or less.

At 18-9, MU is no longer listed on Lunardi’s bubble. MU moved into 5th place in the Big East with the win, and they are listed as solidly in the tournament if the season were to end today.

Of course, the season does not end today. Next is a road game with a very tough Seton Hall team that has won six straight games at home including beating Cincy, Louisville and Pitt. While www.kenpom.com was right on the money in picking a 65-63 win for MU last night, his calculations pick an even closer 74-73 win over Seton Hall. RPIRealtime picks a 70-68 win for MU. Seton Hall is two spots ahead of Marquette – 52nd – in RPI and has the home court advantage, the most explosive scorer in the league in Jeremy Hazell, and boasts an even lower turnover rate than Marquette (Seton Hall is 2nd best in the country at not turning the ball over, while MU is 6th best).

A loss at Seton Hall Sunday and MU could be right back on the bubble heading into the final two-game homestand against Louisville and Notre Dame. However, as tough as the trip to Seton Hall looks, and despite barely surviving with some help from some blown point blank shots by SJU, there are some very positive things about this team starting that suddenly can’t lose a close game:

• MATCH-UP NIGHTMARES. Opponents can’t guard all 5 MU players at the perimeter. Everyone kept asking if MU could survive a bad 3-point night, and tonight they survived a horrid 5 of 18 night that included multiple airballs. Even on such a bad night from beyond the arc, EVERY Marquette player is a threat to hit the three. In fact, Joe Fulce nailed another one today and Jimmy Butler hit one of two meaning even the two “big” men have cominbed to hit 18 of 32 this year! Down the stretch and in overtime, Jimmy Butler and Lazar Hayward went to the foul line every trip they wanted to by drawing the St. John’s big men out to the arc, and then driving around or through them for the foul. They combined to go 15 of 18 from the line while putting 13 fouls on St. John’s three big men (Mason and Justin Brownlee had four fouls each, while Justin Burrell fouled out).

• MU WINS TURNOVER BATTLE AGAIN. Marquette once again won the turnover battle decisively, turning it over only 8 times while forcing 15 by St. John’s. Perhaps more importantly, MU had 8 steals to only 2 for SJU. Mo Acker had three assists to only one turnover - actually hurting his league leading 5.1-1 ratio in Big East play. No other player in the Big East has kept even a 3-to-1 ratio.

• A REAL 3 FORWARD LINE-UP WHEN MU NEEDS IT. The presence of Joe Fulce also seems to be preventing the inside domination that allowed several Big East teams to shoot 60% on two-pointers and grab around 50% of their offensive rebounds. Tonight Fulce grabbed 5 more rebounds in 22 minutes played, and MU held SJU below 50% on two-pointers (19 of 41) and only allowed them to get 10 offensive rebounds on their 30 misses (33%). MU appears to finally have the option of a three-forward line-up when needed, and Fulce is playing well enough that MU can survive a few stretches without either Lazar or Jimmy on the court.

• 8-MAN ROTATION. Junior Cadougan looked good, with a nice steal and a nice drive to the hoop that resulted in what sure looked like a goal-tend to me, but according to the referees and announcer was a clean block off the backboard. It was only 6 minutes, but he looked much quicker on defense, and it truly looked like a legitimate 8-man rotation which could be crucial. We will hope Erik Williams will make it nine when needed.

Obviously St. John’s is in the lower part of the Big East, and blew some easy shots to bail MU out a few times. But the fact is that they came into the game only 8 spots behind MU in the RPI (69th to 61st). They also came in very hot, having lost to Seton Hall, but in their other three most recent games having defeated Louisville 74-55, and won on the road at both Notre Dame (69-68) and South Florida (74-58).

MU is not a lock for the tournament yet. A loss and they may be considered back on the bubble barely in the tournament. However, 35 days ago it didn’t look like MU would get a glimpse of the bubble, and now the would be a lock with two more wins.

Butler hits the game winner --



Buzz addresses the media at the post-game press conference

Marquette vs. St. Johns

Back-to-back conference losses quickly ended the burgeoning euphoria over Marquette's 9-0 start in BIG EAST conference action. On Saturday night the Golden Eagles (20-4, 9-2) look to recapture the magic when they open a modest two-game homestand against the St. John's Red Storm (12-12, 3-9).

All things considered, the Johnnies are a fairly welcome opponent for a team looking to bounce back from consecutive road losses. St. John's heads into Milwaukee on a three-game skid. The Johnnies have lost four of five, last gaining a conference win nearly two weeks ago against USF. St. John's is led by 6'3" guard Paris Horn who averages 15ppg. Former Marquette recruiting target DJ Kennedy averages 13 ppg to go along with seven rebounds. Amidst the struggles SJU head coach Norm Roberts might be on the hot seat once more, adding a bit of desperation to the Johnnies' final regular season matchups.

In last year's game Marquette won 73-64 at Madison Square Garden. If you recall, this game started off with Marquette crushing St. Johns, and then the game became much closer than desired thanks to a giant whistle-fest. The Johnnies had a FTR of 93% in that game, which we can practically guarantee won't happen this year.

So, on Valentine's Day take your sweetie out to a nice steakhouse and then go watch Marquette get their act together. On your way in, grab an Al McGuire statue because it's Al's Night. Game time is 8 pm. If you can't make it to the game, check here for TV clearances.

Opponent Strengths and Weaknesses
As always, this information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report

Strengths
1. Offensive Rebounding – St. John’s is #31 in the country at offensive rebounding, getting an offensive rebound on 37.8% of all missed shots
2. Blocking shots – St. John’s is #81 in the country at blocking shots, where they block shots on 10.5% of all field goals

Weaknesses
1. Protecting the ball – SJU is #209 in the country at protecting the ball. They turn the ball over on 21.0% of all possessions. SJU allows the ball to be stolen on 11% of all possessions
2. Shooting the ball – SJU is #254 in the country at effective field goal percentage (46.6%). They're #317 in the country at three pointers (29.6%) and #295 in the country from the FT line (64.2%). Where SJU is quasi-effective is from inside the arc (#195)
3. Defending three pointers – SJU is #231 in the country at allowing opponents to shoot threes (35.3%)

Specific Statistics Recommendations (In order of importance)
1. Stop SJU from making shots (eFG% of 44% or less). This translates to 22 FGM (including four threes), which is three less than their average and predicts a 37 point win
2. Make shots (MU eFG% of 64% or higher), which would be 35 FGM (including seven threes)... eight more than average
3. Force turnovers (TO Rate of 29% or higher for SJU), which is 21 SJU turnovers (six more than their average)
4. Prevent offensive rebounds (SJU OR% of 33% or less)
a. This is twelve offensive rebounds for SJU, which is one less than their average
5. Keep the pace fast (70 possessions or more)

Bottom Line
Pomeroy predicts a 93% chance of victory. My calculations show a 100% chance of victory and 37 point margin. Yes, I just wrote 100% chance of victory and 37 point margin. The model predicts that MU will have an advantage on every factor, with a significant advantage on FGM, turnovers, and FTA. However, what will probably happen is something similar to the DePaul games, where Marquette will take their foot off of the Johnnies' throats and the game is closer than expected. No data... just a hunch on this one.

Media Updates

• Here is the official GoMarquette.com release. As always, check out their Game Notes
• The site also has podcasts from Buzz Williams, Jerel McNeal, and even George Thompson. Great stuff.
• Speaking of Thompson, Michael Hunt has an article talking about how gracious George is about the scoring record. Seriously, Brute Force had a scoring record at Marquette that lasted for almost 40 years, and he played only three years and without a three-point line. That's insane. I'm sure he'll be at the Bradley Center on Saturday, so make sure to give him the standing ovation he deserves.
• Here's a link to JohnnyJungle's preview of the game.
  

joint post from Rob, Tim, and Kev.

Buzz's pre-game presser:

Big East Preview - Part One

I'm going to run this down from worst to first. My approach to the analysis is to look at five various factors to see how they might impact each of the teams in the Big East. The factors under consideration were:

1. A team that underperformed or overperformed based on last year's stats
2. Consistency (or Inconsistency) of the team last year
   
3. Quality of Junior and Senior players (Using data provided by Villanova by the Numbers and then modified)
   
4. Regression of a team towards 0.500
   
5. Quality of incoming players based on RSCI
   

Read the previous post to get more insight. To get to the projected records, I started with last year's numbers and then revised up and down based on stat performance, returning minutes, incoming talent, etc. Those projections are as good as any projection at this time of year. However, I think the real value of the preview is in the bonus factors or red flags that pop up for each team.


Today's preview focuses on the bottom eight teams in conference.

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The Bottom of the Barrel
These three teams show that it's hard to dig yourself out

#16 - DePaul

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, DePaul (6-12), should have finished with a record of 5.4 - 12.6. Yay?
  
• Consistency - Unfortunately for DePaul, they were one of the most consistent teams in the league. Being consistently bad is less than desireable. Red Flag
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - DePaul returns one of the fewest number of junior and senior leadership. Red Flag
  
• Expected Regression - Based on being one of the lower teams in conference last year, DePaul is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list
  

Projection - 4-14. Sorry, but someone has to be worst in the league. Kind of a shame, too, because Jerry Wainright is doing something really cool this offseason.

#15 - St. John's

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, St John's (5-13), should have finished with a record of 4.6 - 13.4
  
• Consistency - No impact. St. John's was about league average
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - St. John's returns the fewest number of junior and senior leadership in the Big East, highlighted by the transfer of the productive Larry Wright. Red Flag
  
• Expected Regression - Based on being one of the lower teams in conference last year, St John's is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list
  

Projection - 5-13. Let's just move on

#14 - South Florida

• 2007 Results - Significant Underperformer. Based on their stats in conference, USF (3-15), should have finished with a record of 4.9 - 13.1. Look for some correction this year. Bonus
• Consistency - Limited impact. USF was slightly above average for consistency in the Big East last year
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Slightly below average, although South Florida does lose massive big man Kentrell Gransberry
  
• Expected Regression - Based on being one of the lower teams in conference last year, USF is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list, but coach Stan Health will welcome seven (7!) new players to the program this fall. Let's see what they can do.
  

Projection - 5-13. I give South Florida a modest two game improvement in 2008-2009 based on last year's underperformance and the sublime play of sophomore-to-be Dominique James, but no more than that because of the loss of Gransberry.

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The dangerous road game
These three teams will probably be towards the bottom of the league, but that doesn't mean they won't be tough to beat on any given night.

#13 - Seton Hall

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Seton Hall (7-11), should have finished with a record of 6.3 - 11.7 last year.
  
• Consistency - Limited impact. Seton Hall was slightly above average for consistency in the Big East last year
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Slightly below average just on the numbers, although the Pirates also lost senior leader Brian Laing and notable Dominic James fouling machine Jamar Nutter. Note that Seton Hall also expects to return steals leader Paul Gause, who was injured for much of the year.
  
• Expected Regression - Seton Hall can expect some modest regression towards 0.500, but I don't think it's significant
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list though the Pirates will welcome perhaps the best transfer player into the Big East this year in 6'6" Robert Mitchell. Mitchell played one year at Duquesne and was one of the nation's best freshmen, averaging better than 16 points and 5 boards per game.
  

Projection - 6-12. Everything's vanilla with Seton Hall (except for Bobby Gonzalez). Nothing significantly noteworthy in the stats.

#12 - Cincinnati

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Cincy (8-10), should have finished with a record of 7.2 - 10.8
  
• Consistency - Cincy was one of the most inconsistent teams in the league last year. That means that they probably won more games than they should have last year. Red flag
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - On top of being inconsistent last year, Cincinnati also returns one of the fewest amount of junior and senior minutes this year. Not a good combo. Red flag
  
• Expected Regression - No real impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - The Bearcats welcome two players on the RSCI Top 100 list. 6'8" PF Yancy Gates (#41) and 6' G Cashmere Wright (#94) join their program this year. Bonus
  

Projection - 6-12. Despite the addition of two talented players, I think the inconsistency from last year and the relatively few experienced players mean that Cincinnati is due to drop down this year.

#11 - Rutgers

• 2007 Results - Underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Rutgers (3-15), should have finished with a record of 3.5 - 14.5
  
• Consistency - Limited impact. USF was slightly more inconsistent than the league average last year
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - No impact. Rutgers is about league average
  
• Expected Regression - Based simply on being one of the worst teams in conference last year, Rutgers is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Fred Hill is bringing in a spate of talented players to the Rutgers team. This year they'll add 6'1 sharpshooter Mike Rosario (#44), 6'9" big man Greg Echinique, and 6'9" Christian Morris. Bonus
  

Projection - 6-12. This might be a reach, but I'm predicting a decent three game jump for the Scarlet Knights this year.

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Fighting for that Tournament Berth
These two teams will be somewhere around 0.500 and they'll probably be in contention for the eight or nine bids the Big East is expected to receive in the NCAA Tournament this year.

#10 - Providence

• 2007 Results - Significant Underperformer. Based on their stats in conference, Providence (6-12), should have finished with a record of 7.1 - 10.9 last year. This certainly contributed to the hiring of a new coach this offseason. Bonus
  
• Consistency - Providence was one of the most inconsistent teams in the league last year. While it might means that they probably won more games than they should have last year, I believe their underperformance indicates otherwise. I have to flag it but it's worth watching. Red flag (possible bonus)
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Limited impact, though a return to health for point guard Sharaud Curry will make Keno Davis' transition to the Big East much smoother. Curry missed nearly all of last season with a stress fracture in his right foot. Providence is slightly above league average, even with the transfer of productive point guard Dwain Williams.
  
• Expected Regression - Significant impact. Based on where they finished last year, Providence should expect a solid boost just by virtue of a regression towards 0.500. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - No impact
  

Projection - 8-10. Who's ready for some "Keno Davis turnaround" stories? Based on some expected team improvements, Providence should be better than last year. If Davis can get PC to play more consistently, this team may surprise.

#9 - Villanova

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Villanova (9-9), should have finished with a record of 8.3 - 9.7
  
• Consistency - No impact. Villanova was right at league average
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Limited impact. Villanova is slightly above average for returning junior and senior minutes.
  
• Expected Regression - No impact
• Incoming Freshmen - No impact
  

Projection - 9-9. It seems unfair to put Villanova this low, especially since they are returning almost everyone from a team that made the Sweet 16 last year. However, this is part of why the Big East is such a tough conference, and also why pundits are saying the Big East may get nine bids in March. I'm just not seeing anything where Villanova is expecting a big bonus or red flag from the stats. And at the end of the day, I just don't think they're better than the top eight teams even when you factor in expected year-to-year player development.

====

Speaking of the top eight teams (Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia), we'll cover the remainder tomorrow.

Contributions from NYWarrior. Thanks
*edit - Messed up the Villanova results from last year

St. John's Numbers Recap

Due to the Steve Cottingham announcement and subsequent Cracked Sidewalks commentary, we're slightly delayed in producing the Numbers Recap for St. Johns.

Four Factors Review


In looking at the Four Factors, we actually found it somewhat surprising that St. John's ended up with a higher effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) than Marquette. We're sure that it didn't help MU to finish with only one FG over the last ten minutes. Marquette, as they do almost every single game, won the battle of turnover rates. Sloppy play managed to force Marquette into a higher percentage than average (18.3%), but we were still below an average rate of 20%. In addition, the strong recent play on the offensive boards continued. This was one of Marquette's non-conference strengths, but we faltered during early conference play. However, MU has won this factor in five of our last six games, and our numbers continue to improve.

Finally, for St. John's to get a Free Throw Rate (FTR) of 93% is utter garbage. Marquette is one of the worst teams in the country at allowing opponents to get to the line (ranking of 285), but that percentage is only at 42.6%. 93% is a number that is nearly twice the average rate of one of the lowest in the country, and it's not like Marquette was fouling excessively at the end in order to catch up. Marquette's offensive FTR was also almost double our average figure of 26.2%. Maybe the refs should have swallowed those whistles a bit and "let them play".

Individual Player Review


We're going to take a look at the Individual Player Review by addressing some recent comments in Rosiak's Blog. We've kind of been waiting for an opportunity to demonstrate that traditional stats may fall short, and his blog recap of St. John's is a nice chance.

Credit where it's due - Rosiak does a nice job giving credit to Mbakwe (1.4 net points - starting his streak of never again having a negative net contribution), McNeal (7.8 net points - mostly on the defensive end), and James (5.4 net points - higher than average Offensive Rating). We'll look at James and McNeal a bit more below.

When traditional stats are misleading - However, Rosiak also says "-- Wesley Matthews attempted just four shots. He hasn't gotten into double figures since Jan. 26 against DePaul." While this is technically true, it's also somewhat misleading. Matthews was a net positive contributor to the game with the highest Offensive Rating on the team. Since the DePaul game, despite being held below double figures, Matthews has had a net-positive contribution in every game except one. This means that Wesley is finding lots of other ways to make a positive impact on the game without scoring.

In addition, Rosiak gives credit to Cubillan and Fitzgerald, even stating that "Dan Fitzgerald was highly productive in 19 minutes, finishing with five points, one rebound, one steal and one charge taken." Granted... charges taken don't show up in the box score, but his overall impact on the game (-0.4) was essentially zero and not highly productive. Furthermore, Cubillan had the worst net contribution of the team (-1.7).

In general, we are big fans of Rosiak and we think he does a great job, but several of his comments were a clear indication of how traditional stats can be misleading.

A Two For One?


After we posted our Review of the Top Four, several blog comments referred to how similar the net contribution paths looked for James and McNeal. Indeed, tracking from Providence to Cincy shows an almost identical trendline. In addition, now that James appears to be back on track, the net contributions from McNeal have started to pick up again. There's nothing definitive that proves the two are explicitly correlated, but the joint trends certainly do suggest that McNeal's production is boosted when James plays better.

This is just one more reason for optimism heading down the stretch... now that James is healthy, we appear to be getting more from Jerel again too.

Golden Eagles throttle St. Johns

UPDATED
Marquette extended its Big East win streak to three games with a convincing 73-64 win over the hapless St. John's Red Storm in Madison Square Garden tonight. With the win MU improves to 19-6 on the season and 9-5 in the Big East.

Jerel McNeal led the charge with 20 points and keyed a defense that forced 23 Red Storm turnovers including 16 in the first half. Dominic James added 19 points and turned in a terrific floor game as well (including 9-9 from the charity stripe). Trevor Mbakwe also turned in a noteworthy performance, grabbing seven rebounds and scoring five points while demonstrating an impressive nose for the ball on the offensive glass.

MU led by as many as 23 points in the second half before the Johnnies launched a spirited 14-2 run to cut the lead to 61-50 with 6:31 remaining. From that point the game was an ugly grinder though MU settled down enough to earn its third Big East conference road win of the year.

Next up for Marquette is a home game against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights on Saturday afternoon.

AP Recap / Box / Play by Play

Media Recaps

• NYPost says Norm Roberts is still searching for answers
• DailyNews says the Johnnies can't win at MSG
• Rosiak: MU wins on the road despite late fade
• Newsday: Storm can't get started
• The East Coast Bias blog on the MU win
  

MU/SJU Preview @ MSG

#24 Marquette takes on St. John's Redmen at Madison Square Guarden on Wednesday night, 6pm on ESPN2. Marquette will try to extend its 2 game winning streak against the Johnnies, who are 4-9 in Big East Play.

SJU is one game out of the 12th spot in the Big East Tournament and has lost 7 of their last 10. SJU has played RPI Top 50 teams eight times and have lost each and every time.

SJU's Anthony Mason, Jr. returns for his 2nd game after a long stretch on IR with an ankle issue.

I'm not going to mince words: Marquette should win this game handily. MU has an edge on everything. Points/game, FG%, FT%, Defense, Rebounding, Turnovers and Bench quality. But it is a road game, which has given MU the willies.

On top of that, SJU will probably be "looking past" #24 Marquette and gearing up to play @ #5 Duke on Saturday, 2/23. Now that's a gutsy OOC schedule. Can you imagine, 18 Big East games, with Duke in the middle?

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about St. John's. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

• 91% - Pomeroy predicts a 91% chance of Marquette victory
• Remember that these predictions are more accurate (for some reason) on home games
  
• We were also 60-70% favorites to defeat Louisville and UConn
• 51 - SJU's rank for Defensive Efficiency
• This is the highest ranking for St. John's at any of the Pomeroy metrics
• However, before getting too cocky, St. John's is also improving at their defense over the last few games
• 228 - St. John's rank for pace
• SJU is another one of those teams that plays at an extremely slow pace, averaging 65.7 possessions / game
• The Johnnies haven't been above 63 possessions in a game in their last six games
• Slowing the pace down has helped St. John's go 3-3
  
• 22.3% - The turnover rate that SJU averages on offense
• 20% is considered average, so this turnover rate is fairly poor at a ranking of 231 out of 341 Division 1 schools
• In the games that SJU wins, they keep their TO Rate under 20%
  
• Marquette is forcing opponents into a TO Rate of 23%, and almost every opponent we face ends up with more turnovers than their average
• 21.9% - The turnover rate that SJU averages on defense
• In other words, SJU also forces their opponents into a lot of turnovers
• Unfortunately for the Johnnies, Marquette is #28 in the country at protecting the ball
  
• We haven't had a worse than average (20%) game at protecting the ball since January 8th... that's ten games!
  

Thanks to a slow pace and an improving defense, St. John's has managed to go 3-3 in their last six games. However, two of the most statistically significant factors for SJU are their ability to protect the ball and force turnovers. In each of these areas, Marquette has a definite advantage. Expect to see our team disrupt the Johnnies' offense and push a faster pace that SJU would like.

Links:

• StatSheet MU vs. SJU
• TheEastCoastBias Blog Preview of SJU vs. MU
• MU Game Notes
• SJU Game Notes
• SJU Media Guide
• NY Post Preview "Ready for Rumble"
• Palladium-Item on DJ
• Rosiak on Mbakwe

And since we're on Mbakwe .. here's a little interview for you:

Back in the New York Groove

UPDATED
Marquette takes center stage at the World's Most Famous Arena on Wednesday when they take on the St. John's Red Storm to cap the opening night of the 2007 Big East Tournament.

Tipoff is scheduled for roughly 8pm CST on ESPN. The Bracket Project currently lists MU as a solid six seed for the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Adding a road win in the BET (yes, for RPI purposes this is a road game) could help MU ratchet up a notch.

Marquette (23-8, 10-6), fresh off an impressive win over the Pittsburgh Panthers, is looking for its first conference tournament victory since the 2001-2002 season. Norm Roberts' Red Storm (16-14, 7-9) enter the tournament as the 11th seed after convincingly defeating Providence to end the regular season. Last year, the Johnnies failed to reach the Big East Tournament.

Both teams enter the game depleted by injury. Lamont Hamilton, SJU's leading scorer and rebounder, is out for the entire Big East Tournament after suffering a knee injury during the PC win. Marquette will likely hit the floor without the Big East's defensive player of the year, Jerel McNeal. While MU has not made an official announcement about McNeal's availability, head coach Tom Crean was not 'overly optimistic' about his sophomore guard's availability.

So, with each team missing vital cog who will step up? Maybe we'll see two freshmen emerge once again. With McNeal unable to suit up on Saturday night, freshman David Cubillan responded with a collegiate high 20 points, which included a host of key 3-pointers and a perfect night at the charity stripe. While Cubillan lacks McNeal's ability to attack the rim, he played to his strengths by controlling the tempo of the game and successfully managing MU's offense down the stretch.

For the Johnnies, perhaps 6'8" freshman Qa'rraan Calhoun will deliver once more. Calhoun will log more minutes for SJU after scoring 21 points off the bench on Saturday. He averaged six points and four rebounds during the regular season. The New York Daily News is reporting that Aaron Spears will start in Hamilton's place.

While McNeal's absence in a conference road game sets an ominous tone, the loss of Hamilton could hamstring the Johnnies even more. The Red Storm averaged a paltry 62 points per game this year, second-worst in the Big East. To make matters worse, SJU played to a rebound deficit for most of the season, and played to a negative turnover margin.

Anthony Mason Jr. figures to be SJU's first option on Wednesday. The 6'7" sophomore averaged 12ppg and 6 rpg this season. In MU's win over SJU last season, Mason delivered a double-double (14 pts, 11 boards). Junior guard Avery Patterson is the only other Johnnie averaging double figures (10 ppg).

Still, this is a conference road game for Marquette -- a nationally-televised, primetime road game. Let's get this one.

Time to FIRE UP MARQUETTE! I for one can't wait to cheer MU on in-person (finally).

MEDIA UPDATES

• The Associated Press previews the MU/SJU game.
• Rosiak's blog.
• Marquette University BET schedule.
• MUScoop's information header for the game.
• The AP previews the entire BET.
• NY Daily News previews the tournament and notes that a rematch with Pitt "could be the best game of the tournament" -- well, lets get the SJU game first.
• Rosiak's JS preview built around McNeal's honor.
• John Keegan of the Marquette Tribune on MU's return to NYC.
• Steve Yanda of the Marquette Trib on the loss of McNeal.
  

Hey, Ace.........get us back in the New York groove.

Lamont Hamilton is out for the BET

Lamont Hamilton, SJU's leading scorer and rebounder, will miss the upcoming Big East Tournament with a left knee injury. What a huge loss for the Johnnies......the first-team All Big East performer would have been a tough matchup for Marquette.

Here's the news.

No word on Jerel McNeal's availability as of yet.

SJU update: Lamont Hamilton injures left knee

Jerel McNeal now has company on the injury list.

Lamont Hamilton, a pre-season pick for first team all-Big East from St John's, was injured in the Red Storm's victory over Providence yesterday. A 6'10", 240 pound senior, Hamilton leads SJU in both scoring and rebounding.

According to news reports today, Hamilton will have an MRI on his left knee today and will see his team's orthopedist tomorrow. His status for the MU game is uncertain ---a decision on his availability could be made at the Wednesday shootaround. A 6'10", 240 pound senior, Hamilton leads SJU in both scoring and rebounding.

• New York Daily News update.
• New York Times update.
• New York Post update.
  

Bring on the Johnnies. MU vs St. John's Wednesday

St. John's is destroying Providence right now in the Garden and will earn the 11th seed. This is effectively a home game for St. John's on Wednesday night. The two teams have not met this year. MU leads the all-time series 7-5.

St. John's finished the regular season at 16-14, including home wins over DePaul, Syracuse and Notre Dame (teams MU went 0-3 against).