Marquette win makes road teams 5-14 in BE play

Marquette finally showed some zone busting, going 7 of 11 on treys in the first half including contributions from the big men (Jae Crowder hit his first three treys, and Joe Fulce his only attempt). Road teams were only 4-14 in Big East play before Marquette’s win, and even when the road team was the higher rated team they were only 3-6. Here are the road results by biggest win to biggest loss so far this season:

1. St. John's beat West Virginia 81-71
2. Marquette beat Rutgers 73-65
3. Pitt beat Providence 83-79
4. St. John's beat Providence 67-65
5. West Virginia beat DePaul 67-65

6. Georgetown lost to St. John's 61-58
7. UConn lost to Notre Dame 73-70
8. West Virginia lost to Marquette 79-74
9. South Florida lost to Connecticut 66-61
10. Providence lost to Syracuse 81-74
11. South Florida lost to Seton Hall 64-55
12. DePaul lost to Georgetown 86-75
13. Notre Dame lost to Syracuse 70-58
14. Georgetown lost to Notre Dame 69-55
15. UConn lost to Pittsburgh 78-63
16. Rutgers lost to Villanova 81-65
17. Depaul lost to Cincinnati 76-60
18. Seton Hall lost to Cincinnati 70-53
19. Seton Hall lost to Louisville 73-65

Marquette overcame an uncharacteristic 12 first half turnovers by once again drawing fouls including getting four on Rutgers’ tough big man Gilvydas Biruta by early in the second half.

MU did again leave too many 3-pointers open, especially by James Beatty (24 points) who kept Rutgers close.

However, the fast pace favored MU throughout, as Darius Johnson-Odom (29 points) and Crowder (15 points and 6 rebounds) dominated play for a second straight Big East game. Jimmy Butler was again clutch when he needed to step up (16 points, the one player hitting clutch free throws at the end while the rest of the team missed). Junior Cadougan dished out 8 assists to top his 7 assists against Duke for an all-time high.

Vander Blue was finally matched up against Beatty late in the game to stop him down the stretch. Blue also made a great “senior” like play when he made a bad pass for a turnover, but ran to the other end of the court to go to the floor and steal it and call timeout to stop a potential comeback by Rutgers.

Last year Marquette started the season 0-5 on the road but tonight's win gives them a 2-1 record, with the only loss being by one point in a very tough venue at Vanderbilt.

Because RPI credits 1.4 wins for a road win and only 0.6 for a road loss, so in RPI calculations MU is 2.8-.6 on the road, and would only drop to 2.8 – 1.2 even assuming they lost at Pitt Saturday.

This win will most MU into a projected finish in the 50s in the final RPI, as even with the missed free throws late they easily out performed the 4-point spread as well as ever computer model, all of which picked a win by a few points or an 8-point loss (Realtime RPI).

Warriors look to capture first road win of season

Fresh off a rejuvenating New Year's Day victory, the Marquette Warriors (10-4, 1-0) march into New Jersey tonight to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-4, 1-0) in search of their first road win of the season. (don't gimme that. UWM was NOT a road game)

After losing three winnable games in the closing moments, Marquette finally scratched out a close one. Sound familiar? It should... since last year's Warriors lost three consecutive one-possession games including the first two Big East tilts.

Is anybody feeling the magic once again? Is one win enough to turn the tide? At least one college basketball expert is already on board, Andy Glockner of CNNSI. Glockner, who rather enjoys tweeting it up with Warrior Nation, pegged MU as his second-half surprise team. So we got that going for us.

First things first. Claim that first real road win and turn last season's 0-2 Big East start all the way around. Or... show up in Pittsburgh on Saturday staring down a 1-2 start in conference action.

The Scarlet Knights are improving by leaps and bounds under new coach Mike Rice but this remains a winnable road game for Marquette. Offensively the Scarlet Knights are suspect, which is good news considering MU's spotty defensive profile so far this season. Interestingly, Rutgers defends the paint well -- on par with Vanderbilt's interior defense in fact -- which is where Marquette has been lethal all season long. Of course, MU carved up Vanderbilt's defense in Knoxville, so expect the Warriors to turn in another strong offensive effort. This will probably be complemented by a number of trips to the free throw line because of RU's propensity to foul.

With senior point guard Michael Coburn at the helm, the Scarlet Knights protect the ball very well and force a lot of turnovers, exactly the kind of profile we've come to expect from MU over the years. Given MU's backcourt-by-committee approach, turnover margin could be the game's tipping point.

Last time out Rutgers lost at Villanova 81 - 65. The Scarlet Knights led the Wildcats at the half by creating turnovers and nailing a high percentage from the floor, but they collapsed in the second half as Villanova's offense improved and the turnover rate declined. MU's strong offensive performances in the second half against both Vanderbilt and West Virginia bode well for tonight's game at the RAC.

The Scarlet Knights are led by Jonathan Mitchell, the Florida transfer who strongly considered Marquette as a prep in Mount Vernon, NY. The crafty 6'6" lefty averages 13 points and 6 boards per game, highlighted by 42% shooting from deep. Coburn scores 10 per night (47% FG, 39% 3-pt range) to go with four assists. Freshman Gilvydas Biruta, who averages 9 points and five boards, has scored in double figures in 8 of the Scarlet Knights' last 10 outings. Meanwhile freaky athlete Dane Miller averages 9 points, six boards and two blocks per game.

Rutgers is 7-0 at home this season. Pomeroy predicts a five-point MU victory.

Media Updates

• Rosiak's blog preview -- The RAC as a house of horrors
• Jerry Carino at the Asbury Park Press previews the game and calls MU "a quality team flying under the radar."
  
• Carino offers an injury update on the Scarlet Knights
• Carino on Mike Rice's focus on upgrading RU's defense
• GoMarquette sets up MU's two-game road trip

Warriors eviscerate Scarlet Knights

It took the Marquette Warriors less than eight minutes to erase the sting of consecutive losses as they raced to an early 18-point advantage over the hapless Rutgers Scarlet Knights, cruising to a decisive 82-59 victory.

Maurice Acker, the BIG EAST's most improved player, continues to impress. The senior keyed MU's early surge by scoring 12 of the team's first 23 points all on three-point bombs. Acker finished with 14 points and five assists.

Jimmy Butler and Darius Johnson-Odom led the team with 16 points each while Joseph Fulce scored 13 points off the bench. Lazar Hayward finished with a dozen and is now just the third player in MU history to notch 1600 points and 800 rebounds in his career.

As a team MU connected on 53% of its three-point attempts (9-17) but that was not the most impressive aspect of their offensive effort. Led by Johnson-Odom and Acker, Marquette consistently attacked the rim off the dribble leading to open looks from deep and a number of points in the paint by the crafty guards.

With the win Marquette moves to 12-8 on the season and 3-5 in conference play. The Warriors travel to Hartford on Saturday to take on UConn.

Media Recaps
Go Marquette.com official recap
Box Score
Rutgers loses 9th in a row
Journal-Sentinel recaps the win

Buzz Williams' post game press conference



**And by the way, Brad Galli was the best Campus Connection reporter we've seen on ESPN. Fine work, Brad. Check it out -- and follow Brad on Twitter here.

Know your opponent: Rutgers Scarlet Knights

After back-to-back road losses the Marquette Warriors (11-8, 2-5) return home on Tuesday night to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-10, 0-7).

To familiarize us with Fred Hill's squad we're pleased to welcome Shawn Layton from On The Banks Of The Raritan for a Q/A about his beloved Scarlet Knights. If you're interested -- be sure to check out the Q/A we wrote up about MU for his blog.

Fred Hill's tenure at Rutgers went from high optimism to the hot seat quickly. What went wrong?

The 41-70 record during the Fred Hill era hasn't helped his cause. When he brought Mike Rosario and Fred Echenique to the Banks, things were looking up for RU. Rosario is the school's first McDonald's All-American and Echenique's absence during the 0-7 start to this year's Big East schedule illustrates how valuable the guys was for us on the interior. Echenique's transfer to Creighton and the horrific start to conference play has many calling for Hill to be fired. He'll be here for the rest of the season, but all hell will break loose if the dude isn't gone at the end of this season. Fans are fed up with an inept program and are demanding a high-profile hiring this spring/summer.

Mike Rosario is a gunner, but his efficiency suffers. Who would you prefer to see take more shots in the offense?

Great question--I'd like to see Jonathan Mitchell take more from the outside and Dane Miller take the ball to the rim more consistently. Miller hasn't developed the jumpshot we all hope he will, but this hasn't detered him from launching some ill-advised three-pointers. Mitchell has a much better shot and a more developed game at this point, but Miller has incredible potential. Unfortunately, Miller's youth shows at times. He lit up Providence and Villanova for 26 points and was held scoreless in Saturday's loss to Georgetown. I'd love to see RU limit its turnovers and create better looks off dribble penetration. I'd also love to see a win, but at this point, I'd take some clean play.

Despite its proximity to New York City and Philadelphia, the Scarlet Knights have been unable to breakthrough as a consistent upper-tier BIG EAST program. Any explanation for the program's struggles? Any signs of hope for a breakthrough?

Hopefully the university and Athletic Director Tim Pernetti have learned from their mistakes. This program has been at the bottom of the Big East for too long to take another shot on coaches like Fred Hill, Gary Waters, and Kevin Bannon. At this point, we need a proven Division I coach--someone with Tournament experience and a history of turning high school recruits into NBA players. You are right about the NYC/Philly area, but don't forget the goldmine that is NJ high school basketball. Schools like St. Patrick and St. Anthony are always among the top teams in the country and produce quality DI players. Villanova's three Jersey players combined for 48 points against RU last week. The right coach with the right pedigree can persuade such talent to rebuild the RU program. It's happening in football at the Banks. The school has to make the right decisions in the next few months.

Besides Rosario, who should we watch out for?
Senior Hamady N'Diaye is fun to watch if he can stay out of foul trouble. N'Diaye's our only inside presence with Echenique gone so it's been rough going for him of late. He leads the Big East in blocked shots, averaging 4.7 per game, and is currently No. 3 nationally. If he gets in foul trouble, Marquette can throw the ball inside and open the floor for its three-point shooters. If this happens, it will be a Marquette blowout.

How do you see the game unfolding against MU?
Hopefully not like the last seven Big East contests for RU. Rosario can't do it all and if he feels like he must, it will be another ugly game. Guys like Jonathan Mitchell and Dane Miller have to start strong and be consistent. Our leading scorers in Big East games tend to get their points when the game is already in the bag. This can't happen. I expect RU to come out inspired, play with desire, but turn the ball over too much. They'll probably commit 8-10 first half turnovers and then get off to a slow start in the second half. They won't quit and will make things interesting, but simply run out of firepower at the end.

Thanks Shawn!

Tipoff for the game is set for 8pm Marquette Standard Time. ESPNU will broadcast the game.

Media Updates
Official Marquette game notes.
Rosiak preview from the Journal-Sentinel.
Rosiak on Cadougan's surprise return.
Marquette graduate Wesley Matthews scored a career-high 21 points last night in a Jazz win.
New Jersey's Jerry Carino on the Scarlet Knights' need to stay positive.

Well, that changed fast

plus a brief look at Rutgers...

Not ten days ago, life was filled with "doom and gloom", as I anticipated a most likely view for Marquette to finish 9-9. However, fresh off the team's first ever 3-0 start to the Big East, Marquette would need to only finish 6-9 in order to end up 9-9.

Therefore, with some more data, I wanted to take a look at the most likely scenarios as the team is playing right now. Really can't emphasize that enough. As the team is playing right now.


Home wins (high confidence) - DePaul, St. Johns, Seton Hall
Home wins (tougher games) - West Virginia, Georgetown, UConn, Syracuse

Road wins (high confidence) - NONE
Road favorites (tougher games) - Providence, DePaul, USF
Road underdogs (but winnable) - Notre Dame, Villanova
Unlikely wins - Georgetown, Louisville, Pittsburgh

Again, based on how the team (and our opponents) have been playing, there's not a lot I'd quibble with. The story is a lot better for Marquette, with the opportunity to be favorites in several road games, with no predicted home losses. I'd say the win percentage is probably too high for the Syracuse and UConn home games, and probably too low for the UL and Pitt road games. More games will get more accurate.

But what is the most likely scenario for the rest of the season?


Right now, the most likely scenario is that Marquette will finish with the same record as last year (11-7). Given the model, the view is far more optimistic than pessimistic.

Optimist - 90% chance that the team will finish with a record of 9-9 or better. 60% chance that the team will finish with the same record as last year. 40% chance that the team will improve on last year's record, with a crazy 20% chance that the team will get to 13 wins. Win tomorrow, and the team virtually assures itself a 0.500 record or better, with a 27% chance at 13 wins.

Pessimist - There's still a 40% chance right now the team ends up a worse record than last year, and a 25% chance they don't break 0.500 in conference. Lose tomorrow and the most likely scenario drops to 10 wins, with a 90% confidence of finishing with no more than 12 wins.

As for the game at Rutgers, here are the Four Factors

For me, the key to the game was actually the eFG% that Marquette was able to achieve against Rutgers, especially since Rutgers was #12 in the country at eFG% defense. Marquette did a great job shooting the ball. Considering how often Rutgers coughs up the ball, only forcing a turnover rate of 23.9% was actually kind of a letdown. In addition, Marquette had a big advantage at Free Throw Rate, but it was much less significant that the turnovers or shooting percentage.

One thing to keep an eye on is the defense. Last year, Marquette's offense was consistently around 1.06 points per possession in conference, regardless of home or road. What suffered, however, was their defense, which was noticeably worse on the road (1.07 points per possession). It was only one game, but we'll keep watching...

Marquette Survives at Rutgers

Marquette withstood a furious second half Rutgers rally to earn an 81-76 win tonight in Piscataway. The Golden Eagles raced out to a 51-32 advantage with 14:30 remaining in the game only to see the Scarlet Knights cut that lead to just two points with 36 seconds remaining. MU righted the ship on a pair of Rutgers turnovers and solid free throw shooting down the stretch to secure the win.

With the victory, Marquette moves to 14-2 on the season and 3-0 in the BIG EAST. Once again MU shot well, hitting 52% from the field. The Golden Eagles' defense set the pace early as a spate of Scarlet Knight turnovers fueled MU's 21 point advantage.

Wesley Matthews led the Warriors with 23 points on perfect 10-10 shooting. Jerel McNeal finished with 16 points, including 14 in the second half. Dominic James contributed 15 points and 6 assists. Lazar Hayward added 10 points. Jimmy Butler scored 9 points off the bench for Marquette, while Dwight Burke had a season-high 8.

At the end of the game, Buzz commented, "The last 12 minutes was a dog fight, and we got ate." "We've got to get to a point where 2 bench players can play with 3 starters." .. "We got out of character."

Official Box Score
Rosiak Blog


More to come.

Marquette faces New Jersey road test

Marquette (13-2, 2-0) will look to extend its best-ever start in BIG EAST play on Wednesday when they travel to Rutgers (9-6, 0-2).

The game pits a pair of teams moving in opposite directions in the opening stages of conference play, with Rutgers stumbling to an 0-2 start after a disappointing out of conference performance that saw the Scarlet Knights lose to Binghampton, St. Bonaventure and Lehigh. Nevertheless, two of those three home losses occurred in November, and the Scarlet Knights did give the nation's top team all it could handle just a week ago before falling late. In addition, even with the early home losses Rutgers is a stronger defensive team at home allowing just 0.92 points per possession (vs 1.07 on the road).

On the court, Rutgers and Marquette have seemingly opposite strengths as well. Fred Hill's bunch has one of the conference's most productive frontlines led by impressive freshman Gregory Echinque who averages nine points, nine boards and nearly three blocks per game. Echinque's efficient play is complemented by one of the nation's best shot blockers, Hamady N'Diaye who blocks nearly four shots a night. Rutgers leads the conference in blocks, and is #12 in the country at defensive eFG%.

Meanwhile, MU should have a distinct advantage in the backcourt despite the presence of high-scoring freshman Mike Rosario (17ppg). The Scarlet Knights are more prone to turning the ball over than just about any team in the BIG EAST, and worse yet for coach Fred Hill, Rutgers is one of the least effective teams in the country at forcing turnovers. In the end, the Scarlet Knights are last in the conference in turnover margin and often struggle to score, averaging 66 points per game to Marquette's 81.

While road wins are tough to come by in the BIG EAST, the tilt at Rutgers is clearly a winnable game for Marquette. The Golden Eagles are surging after a pair of home wins where MU shot an insane 51% from 3-point territory and 50% overall. In particular, the performance against Cincy was off the charts. Led by BIG EAST player of the week Jerel McNeal, the Marquette backcourt is in high-gear already.

As impressive as McNeal was last week on offense, Dominic James' defensive performance was equally stunning. James pitched a shutout last weekend, keying a defense that held Cincinnati's Deonta Vaughn scoreless on Sunday. For the season, James also leads MU in steals and is clearly the team's top on-the-ball defender. Two years ago Jerel McNeal was the BIG EAST's top defender, but he's not even the premier backcourt defender on his own team today. James is clearly reaping the benefits of returning for his senior season.

Tonight's game marks MU's second road game of the season. Dominic James' game-winner keyed the Golden Eagles' win at North Carolina State last month.

Now let's look at the numbers. Although Pomeroy gives MU an 83% chance of winning, Rob's model calculates a more realistic view of 54% chance of victory. According to the model, here are the keys to the game.

1. Force Rutgers into a turnover rate of 27% or higher

• This translates to 18 turnovers, which is three more than their average
• At their season average, Rutgers wins (win percentage of 58%)
  

2. Achieve an eFG% of 41% or higher

• This translates to 21 made field goals (including 7 three pointers), which is seven less than season average
• At MU season average, MU win percentage is 90%
  

3. Hold Rutgers to an eFG% of 45% or less

• This translates to 21 made field goals (including five 3-pointers)
• At their season average, Rutgers wins (win percentage of 58%)
  

4. Limit Rutgers to OR% of 27% or less

• This translates to 10 offensive rebounds, which is one less than their season average
• At season average, Rutgers wins (win percentage of 52%)
  

In an average paced game (68 possessions), Marquette should win due to a significant advantage on turnover rate. Field goal percentage and offensive rebounding percentage will be essentially even, but Rutgers should have the advantage at getting to the free throw line. We're predicting a defensively oriented game, where Marquette squeaks out with the ugly win and gets out of town fast.

Tipoff is scheduled for 6:30pm CT. The game will be broadcast on the BIG EAST Network.

Media Updates

• StatSheet.com preview
• Marquette game notes
• Rutgers game notes
• Rosiak's blog preview
  
• Jerry Carino examines the fundamentals of RU's offense.
• Carino previews the gme here.
  
• Marquette alum Chris Altruda previews the game for STATS via Yahoo.
• Rosiak on MU's senoirs guarding against a letdown.
  

*Tim Blair and Rob Lowe contributed to this piece.

Big East Preview - Part One

I'm going to run this down from worst to first. My approach to the analysis is to look at five various factors to see how they might impact each of the teams in the Big East. The factors under consideration were:

1. A team that underperformed or overperformed based on last year's stats
2. Consistency (or Inconsistency) of the team last year
   
3. Quality of Junior and Senior players (Using data provided by Villanova by the Numbers and then modified)
   
4. Regression of a team towards 0.500
   
5. Quality of incoming players based on RSCI
   

Read the previous post to get more insight. To get to the projected records, I started with last year's numbers and then revised up and down based on stat performance, returning minutes, incoming talent, etc. Those projections are as good as any projection at this time of year. However, I think the real value of the preview is in the bonus factors or red flags that pop up for each team.


Today's preview focuses on the bottom eight teams in conference.

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The Bottom of the Barrel
These three teams show that it's hard to dig yourself out

#16 - DePaul

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, DePaul (6-12), should have finished with a record of 5.4 - 12.6. Yay?
  
• Consistency - Unfortunately for DePaul, they were one of the most consistent teams in the league. Being consistently bad is less than desireable. Red Flag
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - DePaul returns one of the fewest number of junior and senior leadership. Red Flag
  
• Expected Regression - Based on being one of the lower teams in conference last year, DePaul is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list
  

Projection - 4-14. Sorry, but someone has to be worst in the league. Kind of a shame, too, because Jerry Wainright is doing something really cool this offseason.

#15 - St. John's

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, St John's (5-13), should have finished with a record of 4.6 - 13.4
  
• Consistency - No impact. St. John's was about league average
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - St. John's returns the fewest number of junior and senior leadership in the Big East, highlighted by the transfer of the productive Larry Wright. Red Flag
  
• Expected Regression - Based on being one of the lower teams in conference last year, St John's is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list
  

Projection - 5-13. Let's just move on

#14 - South Florida

• 2007 Results - Significant Underperformer. Based on their stats in conference, USF (3-15), should have finished with a record of 4.9 - 13.1. Look for some correction this year. Bonus
• Consistency - Limited impact. USF was slightly above average for consistency in the Big East last year
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Slightly below average, although South Florida does lose massive big man Kentrell Gransberry
  
• Expected Regression - Based on being one of the lower teams in conference last year, USF is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list, but coach Stan Health will welcome seven (7!) new players to the program this fall. Let's see what they can do.
  

Projection - 5-13. I give South Florida a modest two game improvement in 2008-2009 based on last year's underperformance and the sublime play of sophomore-to-be Dominique James, but no more than that because of the loss of Gransberry.

====

The dangerous road game
These three teams will probably be towards the bottom of the league, but that doesn't mean they won't be tough to beat on any given night.

#13 - Seton Hall

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Seton Hall (7-11), should have finished with a record of 6.3 - 11.7 last year.
  
• Consistency - Limited impact. Seton Hall was slightly above average for consistency in the Big East last year
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Slightly below average just on the numbers, although the Pirates also lost senior leader Brian Laing and notable Dominic James fouling machine Jamar Nutter. Note that Seton Hall also expects to return steals leader Paul Gause, who was injured for much of the year.
  
• Expected Regression - Seton Hall can expect some modest regression towards 0.500, but I don't think it's significant
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Nobody on the RSCI Top 100 list though the Pirates will welcome perhaps the best transfer player into the Big East this year in 6'6" Robert Mitchell. Mitchell played one year at Duquesne and was one of the nation's best freshmen, averaging better than 16 points and 5 boards per game.
  

Projection - 6-12. Everything's vanilla with Seton Hall (except for Bobby Gonzalez). Nothing significantly noteworthy in the stats.

#12 - Cincinnati

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Cincy (8-10), should have finished with a record of 7.2 - 10.8
  
• Consistency - Cincy was one of the most inconsistent teams in the league last year. That means that they probably won more games than they should have last year. Red flag
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - On top of being inconsistent last year, Cincinnati also returns one of the fewest amount of junior and senior minutes this year. Not a good combo. Red flag
  
• Expected Regression - No real impact
  
• Incoming Freshmen - The Bearcats welcome two players on the RSCI Top 100 list. 6'8" PF Yancy Gates (#41) and 6' G Cashmere Wright (#94) join their program this year. Bonus
  

Projection - 6-12. Despite the addition of two talented players, I think the inconsistency from last year and the relatively few experienced players mean that Cincinnati is due to drop down this year.

#11 - Rutgers

• 2007 Results - Underperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Rutgers (3-15), should have finished with a record of 3.5 - 14.5
  
• Consistency - Limited impact. USF was slightly more inconsistent than the league average last year
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - No impact. Rutgers is about league average
  
• Expected Regression - Based simply on being one of the worst teams in conference last year, Rutgers is expected to improve their win% significantly. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - Fred Hill is bringing in a spate of talented players to the Rutgers team. This year they'll add 6'1 sharpshooter Mike Rosario (#44), 6'9" big man Greg Echinique, and 6'9" Christian Morris. Bonus
  

Projection - 6-12. This might be a reach, but I'm predicting a decent three game jump for the Scarlet Knights this year.

====

Fighting for that Tournament Berth
These two teams will be somewhere around 0.500 and they'll probably be in contention for the eight or nine bids the Big East is expected to receive in the NCAA Tournament this year.

#10 - Providence

• 2007 Results - Significant Underperformer. Based on their stats in conference, Providence (6-12), should have finished with a record of 7.1 - 10.9 last year. This certainly contributed to the hiring of a new coach this offseason. Bonus
  
• Consistency - Providence was one of the most inconsistent teams in the league last year. While it might means that they probably won more games than they should have last year, I believe their underperformance indicates otherwise. I have to flag it but it's worth watching. Red flag (possible bonus)
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Limited impact, though a return to health for point guard Sharaud Curry will make Keno Davis' transition to the Big East much smoother. Curry missed nearly all of last season with a stress fracture in his right foot. Providence is slightly above league average, even with the transfer of productive point guard Dwain Williams.
  
• Expected Regression - Significant impact. Based on where they finished last year, Providence should expect a solid boost just by virtue of a regression towards 0.500. Bonus
  
• Incoming Freshmen - No impact
  

Projection - 8-10. Who's ready for some "Keno Davis turnaround" stories? Based on some expected team improvements, Providence should be better than last year. If Davis can get PC to play more consistently, this team may surprise.

#9 - Villanova

• 2007 Results - Overperformed. Based on their stats in conference, Villanova (9-9), should have finished with a record of 8.3 - 9.7
  
• Consistency - No impact. Villanova was right at league average
  
• Quality of Returning Starters - Limited impact. Villanova is slightly above average for returning junior and senior minutes.
  
• Expected Regression - No impact
• Incoming Freshmen - No impact
  

Projection - 9-9. It seems unfair to put Villanova this low, especially since they are returning almost everyone from a team that made the Sweet 16 last year. However, this is part of why the Big East is such a tough conference, and also why pundits are saying the Big East may get nine bids in March. I'm just not seeing anything where Villanova is expecting a big bonus or red flag from the stats. And at the end of the day, I just don't think they're better than the top eight teams even when you factor in expected year-to-year player development.

====

Speaking of the top eight teams (Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, West Virginia), we'll cover the remainder tomorrow.

Contributions from NYWarrior. Thanks
*edit - Messed up the Villanova results from last year

Rutgers Numbers Recap

Just a quick recap of the numbers for Rutgers, as there is only a short turnaround for tomorrow's big matchup with Villanova. We'll keep it at a team level this evening... no individual recaps tonight. (Although it should be no surprise that McNeal was the statistical stud of the game for the third game in the row)

Four Factors Review


Yup - when you win by 30 you tend to dominate all aspects of the game. Just as the St. John's Free Throw Rate of 93% was garbage, I have to say that the FTR for Rutgers is also garbage. At least the referees were somewhat consistent in this one, because it's not like Marquette shot a whole lot of free throws either. Marquette's defense was in full effect, pushing Rutgers to 31.3% turnover rate... or a turnover one out of every three trips down the court.

Continuing to Trend in the Right Directions

The team continues to trend in the right direction. Now, certainly the stellar offensive and defensive performances against Rutgers helped boost these trend lines, but remember that the lines above also reflect a moving 5-game average. Clearly, the next three games will be a better reflection of how the team is trending, but for now we are hitting on all cylinders.

Current Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings are 113.8 and 88.6, respectively. Those numbers suggest a team that goes 17-1 in conference... which is a nice way of looking at how well the team is playing over the last five games.

And Doing it With Consistency

As we had previously discussed, one of the big concerns for Marquette was their inconsistency. Well, MU continues to play at a high level and do it at a consistent rate. It is not as if MU is winning with high risk strategies, which should be very good news for MU fans.

But it's not all Seashells and Balloons


Unfortunately, there is one negative trend appearing for Marquette. There was a long stretch where Marquette's Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) was improving and our opponents' OR% was declining. For right now, those trends are both heading in the wrong direction. We'll continue to monitor and see how things end up. It's hard to grab a lot of offensive rebounds when you shoot 56% from the floor.

Check back tomorrow morning for the Cracked Sidewalks preview of the Villanova game.

Marquette blitzes Rutgers to win fourth straight

Marquette opened the second half with a 20-6 run and never looked back, burying the Rutgers Scarlet Knights 78 - 48 in Milwaukee this afternoon. With the win, the Golden Eagles moved to 20-6 on the season and 10-5 in Big East play. Marquette has won at least 10 conference games in each of its first three seasons in the Big East.

Jerel McNeal was electric all afternoon, scoring efficiently and defending with the vigor MU fans crave. McNeal finished with 16 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists and five steals.

The Golden Eagles' offense was terrific, with crisp passing and off-the-ball movement creating open looks throughout the game. Marquette shot an impressive 56% from the floor, and had a remarkable 21 assists on 32 made baskets. Dominic James, hampered by a sprained ankle sustained late in the first half, finished with 13 points and six assists. Wesley Matthews dropped in 12 and Lazar Hayward had 13.

The Golden Eagles inspired second half play was keyed by trademark defensive pressure. The Scarlet Knights struggled to score, needing more than 12 minutes of action to score in double-digits in the second stanza.

Marquette led at the half 35 - 29 despite a poor defensive effort that allowed Rutgers to shoot an uncharacteristic 52% from the field. McNeal led MU with eight points and five assists at the break.

Next up for Marquette is a Big Monday matchup in Philadelphia against the Villanova Wildcats, who defeated UConn today 67-65. Tipoff is scheduled for 6pm on ESPN.

By the way, can somebody at ESPN mute Dickey Simpkins' microphone? He's atrocious. Is he the best that the WWLS can offer?

Media Recaps
AP Recap / Box / Play by Play
Rosiak Wrap

Surging Marquette looks for fourth straight win

UPDATED
The Marquette Golden Eagles, winners of three straight, will look to extend their win streak when the struggling Rutgers Scarlet Knights visit the Bradley Center this afternoon. After playing uninspired basketball for nearly a month, Marquette (19-6, 9-5) recaptured its early-season intensity and rhythm late in the loss at Notre Dame and promptly pounded their next three opponents, two of them on the road.

The Golden Eagles appear to be peaking at the right time, and much of the credit for the recent run goes to improved play of Dominic James. In the last four games, James has a gaudy A/TO ratio of seven to one. 7 to 1! Perhaps not so coincidentally, James has also seen a spike in minutes played, logging at least 31 minutes in each of the last four games - his longest stretch of consecutive 30+ minute games this season. For MU the equation is simple once more -- good things happen when James is healthy and taking charge on the floor.

With James playing well and Jerel McNeal turning in back-to-back solid performances, Marquette is a confident bunch. Contrast this with Rutgers, who come to town riding six-game losing streak. The Scarlet Knights played Notre Dame tough last week before falling 73-68 at the RAC. The Scarlet Knights are led by 6'9" JR Inman at 12ppg, though the bulk of the scoring from this group comes from the backcourt. Guards Corey Chandler, Anthony Farmer and Mike Coburn combine to average thirty points per game.

Regardless, points are tough to come by for RU. The Scarlet Knights are last in the Big East in field goal percentage (39%) and make just 65% of their free throw attempts. Still, shooting percentages aren't the only numbers that kept Fred Hill awake all night. Rutgers' Big East worst turnover margin and assist totals don't add up to success against a team with a veteran backcourt, particularly when Marquette is one of the best in league at both steals per game and turnover margin.

Marquette stands to be a hellish matchup for the Scarlet Knights.

With a 13-1 home record this season, MU has every reason to be confident on Saturday. Still, there are plenty of concerns for coach Tom Crean:

• Lazar Hayward: The sophomore has struggled in the last two outings, hampered by foul trouble and a lack of touches on offense. With Trevor Mbakwe in the mix and commanding more playing time, will there be a net loss of effectiveness in Hayward's offensive game?
• Ousmane Barro: The big fella remains an enigma. Barro followed up his 14 point, 12 rebound effort against Pitt with a 6 point, three rebound, five foul effort against St. John's. The Golden Eagles are 18-2 when Barro scores 10 points or more. With odds like that, Barro needs to deliver. Thankfully, it looks like the Great Dwight Burke Experiment is largely over, so Ooze should have a chance to contribute more down the stretch.
  
• Maurice Acker: The little fella has played himself out of the rotation, logging an average of just four minutes per game in MU's last four outings. Acker's disappearance only increases the pressure on David Cubillan to deliver quality minutes at the point. While Cubillan remains a legitimate three-point threat, his east-west tendencies when directing the offense run counter to MU's up and down strengths. Still, it's clear that Acker's minutes are flowing more to James than Cubillan -- and Crean is content to increase James' workload.
  

With a win, Marquette would earn its 20th victory of the season for the fifth time in the Tom Crean era. Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm CST. The game will be broadcast on ESPN Full Court, channel 696 on Directv, as well as SNY.

Media Updates/Links

• Rutgers game notes
• CSTV previews the tilt
• MU game notes
• Rosiak on the 'zest' from Cubillan
• MarquetteHoops preview
• Preview from the Appleton Post-Crescent

MU wins in a blowout, 67 to 47

UPDATED
Marquette defeated Rutgers 67 to 47 to stay in second place in the Big East. MU led only by 6 at the 14 minute mark but blew the Scarlet Knights away down the stretch to move to 8-2 in the league and 21-4 overall. Eight wins in a row in the Big East -- people are taking notice......Lundardi had MU as a projected #2 seed before last night's win.

Back to the game.

MU used a balanced attack to run away and hide tonight -- five Golden Eagles finished in double figures. Ousmane Barro led the way with another double-double, eleven points and eleven rebounds. MU manhandled the Scarlet Knights on the glass, outrebounding RU by eleven and hauling in 14 offensive rebounds. Barro now has five double-doubles on the season.......fantastic! MU's bench continued to impress. David Cubillan keyed MU's decisive run by scoring all ten of his points in the second half.

Next up for Marquette is a tough road contest at Georgetown this weekend. The Hoyas defeatd Louisville last night at Freedom Hall, 73-65.

MEDIA ROUNDUP
Marquette Hoops' Andrew Sharos reports on MU's 8th win in a row.

Todd Rosiak on MU's 'shot in the arm'

The Palladium-Item via the AP on MU's win despite an off-night from DJ.

The Star-Ledger on how MU pounded RU.

The final box score.

MU looks for 8th win in a row tonight

MU (rah-rah), already 20-4 on the season, aims to continue its fine play of late when it hosts the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (9-14, 2-8) at the Bradley Center this evening. Tipoff is scheduled for 7pm CST and will be 'broadcast' on ESPN360.

RU is struggling mightily this year under first year head coach Fred Hill. Hill, who was an assistant at MU during the Dukiet era, took over the program after serving as the program's top assistant. Despite their miserable record, RU does have talent. Sophomore forward JR Inman is a terrific player, leading the Scarlet Knights in rebounds while scoring more than 12ppg. Senior guard Marquis Webb is also in the mix - - and as a big, physical guard he stands to matchup well with Matthews and McNeal.

Regardless, you've gotta love MU's chances tonight given how well TC has the fellas playing. Its time to get pumped up for the game. Unfresh after a trip outta the country, tonight's game will help me rally.......and u know what -- methinks Karma is gonna be on MU's side once again tonight.

As defined by Wikipedia, "Karma is a concept in Hinduism which explains causality through a system where beneficial effects are derived from past beneficial actions and harmful effects from past harmful actions."

The source of today's good Karma? The Deli Guy around the corner......see, the Deli Guy went to Rice High School in NYC, and balled with Dean Meminger and Butch Lee as a kid. The Deli Guy still follows MU, and when I step into the deli I get the oh-so-great-greeting, "Hey Marquette!". I feel so, well, like Norm.

Today I got more than that -- "Hey Marquette....they are doing good this year. Lots of upsets." Advantage MU.

NFW will MU spit the bit on a night when the Deli Guy is on board.


Media Updates
Here's the MUScoop info sheet on tonight's tilt.

In case you missed it (I did, thanks to one of our readers for sending this ine), Jerel McNeal made Andy Katz' 'Weekly Watch'.

Here is the RU preview.

Here's the MU preview.

Rosiak on a wary TC heading into tonight's game.

Here's the Marquette Hoops preview.

The Newark Star-Ledger on RU's progress and prep for tonight.