The Make Believe Transfer Chaos

The NCAA officially announced its Division I Council voted to allow college athletes transferring in football, baseball, men's hockey and men's and women's basketball will be granted a one-time immediate eligibity. As some of the old men yelling at clouds out there like Dick Vitale call the decision complete chaos.

The three major chaos theories are I have observed (Besides coaches scared to death about their job security and not having complete control)...

1) People like Vitale believe the transfer portal is out of control and will just cause roster chaos.
2) Others believe it will destroy mid-major basketball.
3) Wisconsin Head Coach Greg Gard fears it will teach the wrong life lessons.

First, lets address the out of control transfer portal. There are currently over 1300 players in the Division I men's basketball transfer portal and counting. Just an eye popping number that is going to collapse the game.

Except it is not. First, the most recently collected data (The data is from 2019) on transfers affecting rosters shows 58 programs out of the 350 Division I teams didn't have a transfer (17% for those that love percentages), while 183 programs had no more than two (52%) and 110 experiencing three to five players leaving (31%). Yes, the data shows programs have to deal with the transfer portal but not to the point where it is literally a whole new 13 players every year like some of the exaggerators would make you believe.

The against the immediate eligibility crowd though will argue now that the sit out rule is gone, transfers will jump even higher. I will point out that those folks like Vitale (Why he is still relevant anyways?), usually love to emphasize the student before the athlete in the argument. So okay, let's look at the current state of the transfer portal and how it relates to the normal student transfer rate.

There are 350 Division I men's basketball programs which at 13 scholarships a pop means there is 4550 Division I scholarships available. Say the current 1390 players (as of this writing) in the transfer portal all transfer (because some can return), that is a 31% transfer rate. Which guess what folks is right within the typical transfer rate of normal students.

Second, this belief that mid-majors will be destroyed is something I give a raised eyebrow to. The belief that players wanting a new challenge (or some mid-majors will call it being poached) will destroy the mid-majors is something I do not buy. Heck, as some mid-major coaches point out in this article there will be a balance of those going up and those going down (Especially since mid-majors can offer shots and minutes where some players at the higher levels might not be getting and legitimately yearning for).

The life lessons argument I find humorous. What is the lesson to be learned? Stick it out in toxic situations? Be loyal to a coach who at a moments notice will not be loyal to you? Be miserable in a situation because when you made a commitment to the program you thought it was one thing and it turned out to be completely something else? 

If that is the life lesson being taught, you might as well just teach these athletes to prepare to work a job they hate for 30 years and enjoy the gold watch at the end. 

The only reasonable life lesson argument I have found when it comes to dealing with adversity comes from Milwaukee's 97.3 the Game's Brian Butch (Yes, that Brian Butch). He pointed out on his show Nine to Noon with John Kuhn recently that if players run from actually competing for shots and playing time that will have an impact on a players future pro prospects. It makes some sense since most DI players have a shot to play professionally in the NBA, G-League or overseas. At the pro level, they are not going to care about a players feelings towards shots or playing time. They are going to care about the contribution to the team and what are you doing to get better. Butch summarized the players who jump from program to program to chase shots to improve those pro aspirations usually backfires. He has saw it time and again in his pro career. The players finally had to face competing for playing time, could not handle it and were sent home.

Maybe the whole sky falling argument just comes down to fear because this will change the game. It will change for sure how college coaches recruit. It has already begun to create this perception that players are now hired guns (Total irony here with that analogy considering these hired mercenaries will be paid--for now at least--in tuition along with room and board while the NCAA makes billions and the schools make millions off the relationship). 

What I hypothesize is what this rule change will do is create more and more of the perception that the God-like coach and his outstanding culture may not be so outstanding after all. Coaches may be exposed and have to deal with a change that will only at best zero-sum benefit them. There is one thing I have observed in my time when I covered college hoops is most coaches only love changes that benefits them. The best response to that is adapt or die because the times are a changing.

The Curse of Jim Nantz...Marquette bounced from NCAA tournament

It's rare that Jim Nantz calls a Marquette University basketball game. He's the upper crest of sports broadcasters and typically only calls the biggest matchups in sport...the Masters, the Final Four, the NFL and other major sporting events. As far as Marquette fans are concerned, we just assume he contract laryngitis the next time he is asked to do play by play for a Marquette game. For those that may not recall, the last time Jim Nantz was behind the microphone for Marquette was April 5, 2003 in New Orleans. Marquette was in the Final Four and taking on #1 seed Kansas. At the end of the first half in New Orleans, MU trailed by 29 points, 59 to 30. The coach of the Jayhawks? Roy Williams.

Fast forward nearly eight years later and the curse of Jim Nantz struck again. Or maybe it's the curse of Roy Williams and Jim Nantz together in the same venue. Against Roy Williams Tarheels, Marquette took on the #2 seed in this year's House of Horrors for MU, the Prudential Center. This was the scene of the crime where the Golden Eagles were clobbered by Seton Hall several weeks back to close out the Big East regular season.

Much like in 2003, the opening minutes Marquette was competitive. In fact, MU took a 10-8 lead with 12:43 remaining in the first half (in 2003, MU trailed Kansas 14-12 with 13:35 left.) The remainder of the first half could only be described as surreal, much like 2003. North Carolina went on a 32-5 run in the last 11:20 of the half to take a 40-15 lead into the locker room. A stunning display that rivaled the 45-18 run KU went on in 2003 to close out the half.

Curse you Jim Nantz and Roy Williams!!

The second half started out much the same as UNC scored the first six points to put MU down by 31 points as an exasperated Buzz Williams called another timeout to get the boys on track. To MU's credit, the team fought hard to get back into the game and even cut the lead to 14 points with 4:21 left to play. It was as close as MU would get. Senior walk-on, Rob Frozena, hit the final bucket for MU with a 3 pointer in the final ten seconds. A nice touch on a night when nearly everything went wrong for Marquette.

MU finishes the season at 22-15. The 15 losses are the most by a MU squad since Mike Deane's last season in 1998-99 when MU finished at 14-15. Conversely, it was also only the third Sweet 16 NCAA appearance for Marquette since winning the national championship in 1977. An interesting season, with many ups and downs, a solid Big East tournament, a sensational first two games in the NCAAs and a stinker to finish the campaign. There's always next year.


Game recap

Boxscore

Crucial test failed. MU at season crossroads

Marquette had a golden opportunity tonight to win a key game at home against a quality St. John's club and take a step closer to a NCAA tournament bid. In the process, they would be on their way to possibly another double digit win season in the Big East, a record they have never missed since joining the conference. It would require passing a crucial test against a club that has been iffy on the road this year in the Red Storm. The Warriors failed this test on Al's night and now faces a critical crossroads in their season.

MU found themselves in a similar situation as other games, a solid lead in the second half (7 points) only to watch it whither away in a matter of moments. This time, however, MU couldn't claw back and almost seemed to accept their fate.

It all started to unwind just after the 16:50 mark with MU up 45 to 38. In the next five minutes the Johnnies go on a 15-5 run with no MU timeouts called (there were two tv timeouts in that period). That followed with another run of 7-2 before Buzz called a T.O and the Golden Eagles trailing 60-52 with 9:21 to play. The game was effectively over right there. The Storm pushed the lead to 13 points before MU was able to claw back to within 8 briefly. By the time the game ended, MU had dropped an 80-68 decision and a significant blow to their NCAA tournament hopes.

Another dismal defensive performance as MU gave up 80 points on their home court. A whopping 18 turnovers were committed, the highest in the Buzz Williams era we believe. What's worse, the offensive juggernaut that was the mainstay of MU seems to have disappeared. The third straight game of scoring less than 70 points as MU shot an anemic 22% from beyond the arc and less than 44% overall. The Warriors free throw shooting was about the only thing keeping them in the game.

Box Score


Buzz Williams and MU now face a critical crossroads to their season. They are 6-7 in the Big East and 15-11 overall. Their RPI after the loss now sits at 66, below such teams as Michigan, Penn State, Marshall, Dayton and a slew of other teams considered outside of the NCAA tournament discussion. Was tonight the fatal blow for their chances or do they gather themselves and turn it around? They will be favored to win 3 of their final 5 which would leave them with a 9-9 record. It is not inconceivable to see them go 4-1 with a win at Seton Hall, but it's equally not inconceivable to think the team might have given up. I don't think Buzz will let them do that, but the body language in this game was difficult to watch. A few boo birds came out amongst some of the crowd, either as a result of frustration or what might have been perceived as a lack of urgency in such a crucial game.

With a NCAA field of 68 teams, largest in NCAA history and a team that has been largely viewed as "safely in" the field the last month, the latest turn is not good news. A lot of pride and a season can be salvaged over the next five games, beginning with a must win against a tough Seton Hall team at the Bradley Center this weekend. It's do or die time, a loss to the Hall at home would be the final blow. Time to regroup because there is time for nothing else.

Will the game be on tv in my area? 6% will see the game for sure. Find out where you stand

The Marquette vs Washington game will be seen by only 6% of the country on Thursday in a "constant state" where it's the only thing being shown. And additional 25% will be able to "flex" to the game depending on what CBS does.

Of course, you can always watch online with MMOD or purchase DIRECTV's Mega March Madness and watch all the games in HD.

What folks are saying...

....about Marquette hoops this morning. I'll cut to the chase -- read Dave Heller's thorough national roundup on the Warriors matchup with the Washington Huskies.

Also, Don Ruiz from the Tacoma News Tribune checks in with Lorenzo Romar's program for their reaction to earning a bid, their seed and their opponent. The official MU site has great content as well.

By the way there's plenty of chatter on Twitter about the game, follow Cracked Sidewalks here.

Warriors clobber Louisville to punch dance ticket

With tonight's dominant 69-48 victory over Louisville the Marquette Warriors moved to 20-9 on the season and 11-6 in BIG EAST play.

Darius Johnson-Odom turned in a career-high 22 points to lead the charge for Buzz Williams' crew. Maurice Acker finished with 15 points and super-sub Joseph Fulce chipped in with 11 points. Marquette held Louisville to a season-low 48 points on 37% shooting from the field. No Cardinal scored in double figures tonight. Marquette's effort was simply outstanding.

More later this week but hey -- this team is dancing. Great job, fellas.




If Tony Manero is not your cup of tea, how about the inimitable Brad Galli? The MUTV Sports reporter recaps the big win -- complete with the circa-1977 baby blue blazer of choice.



As amazing at Tony Manero was back in the day, I don't think he could move through a crowd like DJO. Wow.



Media Recaps

• Rosiak on how MU outclassed Pitino's bunch
• Associated Press recap
• Box Score
• Louisville Courier-Journal on MU crushing the Cards
• There's plenty of frustration over at the Card Chronicle

Time to exhale: Marquette advances in the NCAA Tournament

Marquette fought off Kentucky in the final minutes to notch their first NCAA tournament victory in the post-Wade era, winning by a final score of 74-66. With the victory Marquette advances to play the Stanford Cardinal on Saturday in Anaheim.

Jerel McNeal hit for 20 points (8-15 shooting), and Lazar Hayward netted 16 points (7 -11 shooting). Dominic James added 15 points and three assists (and zero turnovers in 29 minutes). Marquette shot 44% for the game.

Marquette led by as many as 11 in the second half, but Wildcat Joe Crawford had the game of his life, hitting 35 points, keeping UK in the game longer than expected.

With just about five minutes remaining, the Wildcats cut the lead to just three at 56-53 when Dominic James delivered in the game's key sequence. Following an offensive rebound by Dan Fitzgerald, James drilled an open three-pointer with 4:23 remaining to boost the MU lead to 59-53. After a UK miss, James took advantage of Ramel Bradley's tentative defensive play with four fouls to drive past the UK guard for the layup, stretching the Marquette lead to 61-53 with 3:14 to play.

Wesley Matthews sealed the win by sinking eight consecutive free throws in the last 30 seconds of the game. Matthews finished with 13 points. Overall, MU was an impressive 23-29 from the charity stripe on the afternoon.

Note to teams playing at the Honda Center, the games are being played under "West Coast Rules" whereby intentional fouls don't exist. Twice in the last minute, UK purposely fouled Dwight Burke, the worst FT shooter on the court, far far away from the ball. Twice, the refs applied West Coast Rules and neglected to call an intentional. Oh, well.

Tipoff for the MU-Stanford game is TBD -- either 5pm or 8pm.

This day has been a long time coming, and I've been dreading it all season. Lose, and we're one and done once again. Win, and we've got the monkey off our backs. I hardly slept last night, but I woke up believing this was our day.

I admit, it was very odd seeing Marquette's name on a bracket line to the right. LET'S GO WARRIORS!

AP Wrap / Official Box

Marquette Press Conference:

NCAA to bloggers: Off to the Gulag

While even the most staid of corporate cultures have wholly endorsed the benefits, power and usefulness of new media, the bass ackwards NCAA refuses to see the light. Courtesy of CNET,

According to the Courier-Journal, staff blogger Brian Bennett was approached by NCAA officials in the fifth inning of a game between the University of Lousville and Oklahoma State, told that blogging "from an NCAA championship event 'is against NCAA policies (and) we're revoking the (press) credential and need to ask you to leave the stadium.'"

But the NCAA was not content with simply stomping on the First Amendment. In legendary KGB fashion, they went on to threaten the University of Louisville with severe penalties --

Courier-Journal representatives were told by two members of the U of L athletic staff that if the school did not revoke Bennett's credential it would jeopardize the school's chances of hosting another NCAA baseball event

If this wasn't the NCAA, I'd find this story unbelievable. When in doubt, threaten the members of your own Politburo -- that appears to be the mantra from Comrade Myles Brand.

The NBA and MLB have seen the light. Consider that Dallas Mavericks opened a wiki to allow fans to chronicle every single game in real-time. MLB allows media partners to 'glog' on games in real time (and encourages registered fans to jump in as well). Heck, the NBA live blogs during the NBA Finals. Meanwhile, the San Antonio Express-News has a live blog during the NBA Finals -- btw, does anybody think David Stern will send his henchmen over to shut these folks down? Not a chance in hell.

Yet the NCAA refuses to enact a smart, enlightened policy that would actually increase interest in the championship events it is chartered to foster. That's pure insanity, especially given the undeniable benefit that new media vehicles provide in reaching a fast-growing audience even as traditional newspaper readership and network television viewership decline precipitously. In fact, during the first six months of 2006, newspaper circulation in the United States declined at the fastest rate in at least 15 years. That decline is rosy compared to statistics revealed by The Audit Bureau of Circulations several weeks ago which indicated that "daily circ fell 2.1% while Sunday tumbled 3.1%" despite "easing comparisons". Cooking the books doesn't even help the dinosaurs.

So, while new media readership expands at a nearly unprecedented rate, the NCAA battens down the hatches to protect a doomed patient on life support (even if the patient in this case is trying to evolve in order to survive). Brilliant!

Here is Rick Bozich's article on this mess.

Deadspin clobbers the mental midgets at the NCAA. Baseball America jumps in a well.

NCAA to texting: RIP

Perspectives on the looming ban are outlined here -- including a passionate Tom Crean.

"It's just another agenda-driven proposition that doesn't make any sense," Marquette coach Tom Crean said. "It's really an insult, I think, to everybody involved - coaches, families and recruits. If you choose not to answer your text, don't answer it."

Tell that to the mother of unsigned prep star Patrick Patterson -- who received "7,000 text messages, 4,000 over the (plan) max" in March!

That'll be $500, please.

NCAA to Address Impact of Technology on Recruiting

And you run and you run to catch up with the sun, but its sinking
And racing around to come up behind you again

The helplessness captured in these classic Roger Waters lyrics must reflect the frustration of the folks at the NCAA these days as they grapple with the impact of rapid technology adoption on recruiting. Today and tomorrow the NCAA is meeting to consider a proposal from Ivy League institutions that would ban the use of text messages by recruiters (read coaches).

The outcome of this week's debate is uncertain, but the NCAA recognizes that the recruiting game has changed due to the ever-accelerating pace of technology adoption. Over time the NCAA has gradually shortened recruiting windows, minimizing the amount of time coaches can watch prospects play or meet with them in person, largely to protect the interests of the student-athletes.

Technology provided a dandy way around this trend, primarily through text messaging.

Today coaches can text message recruits as much as they want - - there is no limit to this method of contact under current NCAA guidelines. And don't forget about blogs, social networking sites, stand-alone Web pages, and other electronic means of marketing a program to prospective recruits - - - most (all?) of which fall outside of the guidelines currently addressed in the 460-page NCAA rulebook.

With young people so eager to adopt new forms of technology, coaches that evolve quickly could have an advantage. Or not. Consider that the receiver pays for incoming text messages -- could this be considered an invasion of privacy, or at the very least inconsiderate if the recruiting target has limited financial means?

The 'simple' issue of using technology to recruit quickly becomes complicated when the discussion gets down to the brass tacks.

According to Cellular News, "more than 158 billion text messages were sent in 2006, representing a 95% increase over 2005 and more than 2.7 billion MMS messages sent in 2006, up from 1.1 billion in 2005."

Remarkable. And that's just text messages and MMS (multimedia messages). There are 55 million blogs out there too. And while MicroPersuasion reports that new bloggers 'flatlined' recently, the readership of those blogs continued to increase.

The challenge before the NCAA is great. Young people today are the primary drivers of end-user oriented technology like text messaging. For example, the University of Florida reported that 75% of their freshman class signed up for its 'Mobile Campus' offering, a cell phone messaging service the university offers to students, faculty, and staff.

Reigning-in technology is impossible, so the pressure is on the NCAA to adopt an enlightened policy that protects the interests of its prospective student-athletes while serving the needs of the institutions it represents. This will be an interesting space to watch.