Half Full or Half Empty?

There certainly does seem to be far more of the Half-Empty types around lately. In truth, neither answer is completely right and neither answer is completely wrong, although one of those viewpoints is certainly more recent and more vivid. Let's move onto the numbers and address the silver linings and the clouds of our most recent game.

Four Factors Review

Half-Full? Marquette won on three of the Four Factors, including on Offensive Rebounding for the second game in a row.

Half-Empty? This was our second worst effective Field Goal Percentage of the year. The worst was our first game against Louisville. It was our third worst Offensive Efficiency outing.

Season Projections based on Offensive and Defensive Ratings

Half-Full? Pomeroy projects us with a season record of 23-7 (12-6 in the Big East)

Half-Empty? Based on our Big East Conference averages (Team ORtg 102.5 ; Team DRtg 100.7), we project to a conference record of 9.8 - 8.2. Looking at how we've been playing the last five games (Team ORtg 101.9 ; Team DRtg 101.9), we project to a conference record of 9-9. That would mean losing six times out of the next nine games.

Individual Ratings


Half Full? We got net positive games from Wesley Matthews, Jerel McNeal, and Ousmane Barro. Matthews appears to be really coming into form during conference play. Plus, Maurice Acker was the net points leader for the team and fan fave Scott Christopherson continues to provide a net positive impact in limited minutes.

Half-Empty? Yet again, Louisville managed to shut down Lazar Hayward. Hayward has had only four games with a net negative impact, for a total of -10.7 points. Almost all of those negative net points (-10.1) have come against Louisville. Our top two three point shooters, Cubillan and Fitzgerald, were negative net contributors. Fitz and Burke had offensive ratings of zero! Plus, James continues to endure his slump.

Monday's game was another rough one, and these are really starting to wear on the fan base. It's getting harder to look for the Half-Full folks around, but perhaps things will turn around on Saturday. Saturday really could be the critical point of the season.
-------------------------
In other news, Jonah Keri (from the New York Sun and ESPN.com) recently published an interesting article on Inconsistent Teams. One of his featured teams was Marquette, who ranks at the bottom of Pomeroy's inconsistency rankings, saying:

Don't be surprised if you see one or more of these three make the Elite Eight — or all three bow out in the first weekend of the big dance.

Mr. Keri also thought well enough to consider Marquette as a potential Final Four Team way back in early November. Let's not let that ruin his credibility, though. Maybe he's just a Half-Full kind of person...

What do you think?
Talk about it here on MUScoop - - half full or half empty.

A sickly performance by Marquette

Dominic James had the flu and did not start for the first time in his career. It appeared as if the entire team had the flu. A performance that was sickly in every regard as Marquette was again routed by Louisville for the second time this year. It was MU's first home loss of the season.

The performance looked like many of the recent games by MU this year. They struggled to beat South Florida, played very poorly in the first 16 minutes at Cincinnati, and tonight on national television were outclassed at every turn. The game was over in the first five minutes.

Louisville strolling to the rim with the greatest of ease as MU missed defensive assignments in their matchup 2-3 zone. After about the 7th or 8th uncontested basket, Crean bagged that plan but it didn't help much. While Louisville's shots became a little tougher against the man to man, the Cardinals had no problem down low or going deep from beyond the arc. MU's shooting woes only added to the stench coming from the rotting patient.

So here we were, a national tv audience and a chance for retribution with 3rd place in the Big East in site. Two hours later, a blowout and another horrid performance begs where this team is heading. Sure MU is still in fantastic shape for the post season, but there is something seriously missing from this team the last three weeks of the season and no end in site where that something is coming from.

The team that handled Wisconsin in Madison, the team that crushed nationally ranked Notre Dame, the team that came within one possession of taking out Duke.....not sure where they are, but they are AWOL. With tough games at Notre Dame and at Seton Hall up next, MU better hope to find something soon. The patient is sick and the drugs ain't working.

One thing is for certain, when the coaches picked Louisville to win this conference as co-champions, they weren't far off the mark. Now that they are healthy they look very good.

The final score....71-57 in a game that wasn't that close at all. On a positive note, Bobby Knight announced his resignation today during the first half of the game which means tonight on ESPN and elsewhere the attention will be paid to him and not this dreadful performance.

The loss knocked MU's RPI from 18 to 32 and put the Golden Eagles into a muddled mass with 4 losses in conference play.

Recaps of tonight's embarrassment:

• AP recap / box score / play by play
  
• ESPN on Marquette's collapse at home
• Courier Journal blog on Ville's dominant performance

Marquette v Louisville, Round 2

UPDATED

Just to recap: Round One went to Louisville via a viscious TKO. The judges scored the bout 71-51 in favor of the Cardinals. BTW, Louisville fans are ready for the next rev.

The Cardinals (16-6, 6-3) swoop into Milwaukee as winners of three of their last four games. Earl Clark and Terrence Williams each delivered double-doubles in Louisville's 87-50 mauling of Rutgers on Saturday. The Cardinals are the most offensively balanced team in the Big East, with five players averaging in double figures. Terrence Williams and Jerry f@!@#$g Smith each average a shade over 11ppg, followed by Earl Clark, David Padgett and Derrick Caracter at 10ppg. The Cardinals are a ferocious defensive team, one of the best in the nation particularly inside the arc. It is no surprise that Louisville held each of its last three opponents to 40% shooting or less.

After Saturday's impressive 75-60 road win over Cincinnati, the Golden Eagles (16-4, 6-3) return home on Monday night where they are 12-0 this season. Marquette's win was keyed by the inspired play of the reincarnated Ousmane Barro, who contributed 19 points (9-10 from the field) and 10 boards off the bench. Barro's effort complemented another fine performance by Lazar Hayward (19 pts, 5 boards), who's fast becoming one of the Big East's best forwards. The outburst from the frontline helped MU out-rebound a team for the first time in nearly a month.

With back-to-back road games looming at Notre Dame and Seton Hall, a home win is essential for MU if the Golden Eagles expect to compete for one of four first round byes in the Big East tournament (if not the regular season crown itself). Louisville owns two conference road wins, though the Cardinals lost their most recent road game at UConn.

A few other random notes:

• Dominic James is just not the same player since the Jamar Nutter hard foul back on January 8. Since then James is only hitting 37% from the field and has failed to score in double digits in four of his last five outings - - the worst stretch of his career.
  
• What is going on with David Cubillan? He played just seven minutes against Cincy and failed to score, and in 21 minutes of action against USF he came up with just three points. As well as Ville defends the paint, MU could use a productive Cubillan tonight.
• Lazar Hayward scored in double figures in each of the last four games, which is no surprise.......the 6'6" sophomore now leads MU in scoring at 13.7ppg and leads the team in double figure scoring games with 17.
• Wesley Matthews has rounded into form. Since struggling to a season-low four points against Seton Hall, Matthews is averaging better than 13 points per outing.

Tipoff for tonight's matchup is scheduled for 6pm CST on ESPN's Big Monday.

Media Updates

• GoMarquette.com preview
• AP preview
• Kentucky.com previews the matchup
• Rosiak says MU/Louisville is becoming a classic. Um, no kidding
  
• CardChronicle offers a painful reminder
• Big East Basketball Report preview
  

Top Five Numbers Preview

When we did our preview the for the last game, the key areas to watch for were Louisville's Defense, especially at limiting 2-point FGs and on blocked shots. We've already covered that, and not a lot has changed on the Louisville Pomeroy Scouting Report. True to form, the recap of the last game showed that Louisville was better than Marquette at almost every facet of the game. MU was even victim to several season lows in offensive efficiency, effective Field Goal Percentage, and defensive Free Throw Rate.

8 - Louisville's National Rating at Defensive Efficiency

• Louisville holds opponents to a score of 85.5 on the defensive end
• Last time we played, they were ranked 11
• Holding Marquette to an efficiency of 78.0 helped there
  

11 - UL's rating at effective Field Goal (eFG%) Defense

• Louisville holds opponents to an effective Field Goal Percentage of 43.1%
• As mentioned above, a lot of this is from inside the arc, where opponents only achieve 40.7%
• That percentage is #9 in the country
  

30.4% - Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) achieved by Marquette in the last game

• This was a season low, and our next lowest was 40.2% against Seton Hall
• Expect Marquette to fare much better (especially from three) in front of the home crowd
  

59.2% - Defensive Free Throw Rate allowed by Marquette against Louisville last time

• Louisville got to the line 60% of the time that they had a Field Goal Attempt
• Will Marquette be able to keep this percentage lower? Louisville only gets to the line 23.9% of the time on average.
  

69% - Our predicted chances of winning according to Pomeroy

• Of course, we were also given a 66% chance of winning the last game, and we all know how that turned out

Last time, there were plenty of season worsts for Marquette, but we don't expect that those results will happen a second time. Even if Marquette gets closer to the season averages for Louisville's Free Throw Rate and effective Field Goal Defense, this is a different game. In front of the home crowd, look for Marquette to win.

Louisville Numbers Recap

In our Louisville Preview, we said to watch for several things. First of all, Louisville is doing an outstanding job at Defensive Efficiency, especially on limiting 2-point field goals. Second, Louisville is limiting almost all opponents to under 35% Offensive Rebounding Percentage. Finally, Louisville likes to keep the pace down.

Four Factors Review


Hey, new season lows! It's no secret that Marquette shot horribly, but here is how horribly they shot. Marquette's previous low at Offensive Efficiency was 89.0 (against Seton Hall), and before that they'd never been below 100. Marquette's previous season low at effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) was 40.2%, and our season average is 53%. We are one of the best teams in the nation at both of these areas, but not last night.

Marquette also achieved a season low at defensive Free Throw Rate. The 59% number for Louisville means that about 60% of the time that Louisville attempted a shot, they also shot a free throw.

Not only that, but yet again, Marquette did not do well on Offensive Rebounds. This is...

A Very Bad Trend

Looking at the graph above, we can see the moving 5-game average for Marquette's Offensive Rebounding % (blue) and our opponents' OR% (pink). That sloping downward trend started once Big EAST play began. Remember too that Marquette was once as high as #7 in the Nation at Offensive Rebounding, but we're now at 28 and falling. Plus, our opponents are doing better and better against us.

Not to point to doom and gloom, but two of our team strengths this year have been effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) and Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%). Once the Big EAST started, both of those areas have gradually gotten worse. These two trends need to reverse themselves to allow MU to have success this season.

Individual Ratings


If you are looking for a silver lining on an individual basis, it's that Wesley Matthews and Lawrence Blackledge had a net positive game. After that, the whole team pretty much did poorly. James and Hayward had their worst games of the season (statistically), but expect that to rebound. Hopefully, James will be able to play on Sunday.

An Argument to Play Blackledge More... sort of

There have been increasing calls to play Blackledge more. He certainly brings an energy to the game, and performed admirably against Harangody. Blackledge's blocks and dunks are a spark, but does he deserve more time?


First, some perspective on the graph above. It's a cumulative view of each player's contribution on a per-game basis. Upward trends are good and downward trends are bad. One is looking to see a trend that is overall positive or overall negative. Looking at the trends of the cumulative point contributions for our Three B's, we can see a few things.

• Both Burke and Barro are in a serious slump. Ever since the West Virginia game, their net contributions have declined consistently every game. This isn't really news.
• Blackledge's season net contributions are actually overall negative, but...
• Since the Sacramento State game, Blackledge's contributions have been trending slightly up (except for WVU)
  

Blackledge isn't exactly tearing things up from a contribution perspective, because he's basically flat. The difference is that his net contribution isn't negative like Burke and Barro. It's kind of like being "queen of the pigs". Therefore, the Cracked Sidewalks view is that Blackledge deserves more time... sort of.

The team needs Barro and Burke to break out of their slump soon. We are going to need them for the rest of the season.

Let's move on and get ready for UConn.

MU Lays Powder Blue Egg @UL

Marquette rolled out its 4th uniform of the year for a big road game versus Louisville on national TV. If you like that color, it was the only bright spot of the game. The Cardinals owned Marquette tonight, with a final score of 71-51.

In short, Marquette couldn't shoot and couldn't rebound. MU hit a meager 30% from the field, and big goose-egg 0-12 from behind the arc.

UL out-rebounded MU by 13. Marquette has a serious rebounding problem, being bested by 13, 10, 4, and 12 over the past 4 games.

Finding a player of the game for Marquette is tough. McNeal had 16 points on 7-17 shooting .. but he also had a whopping 7 turnovers. Blackledge is my personal best off the bench winner. He's consistently added energy on both ends of the floor for several games now, and one wonders why he isn't getting more minutes.

To add injury to insult, Dominic James, in an off-balance attempt at a circus shot, braced his fall and re-injured his bad wrist. No report has been filed on his condition, but with the UConn game three days away, on the road, I would be surprised if DJ heals in time.

So, what does this all mean? Losing at Louisville is not surprising. None of us here at CS predicted this game as win. However, something is to be said about the way in which we lost. Horrendous shooting from long, medium, and short range, which was nearly the opposite of MU's performance 5 days ago vs. Notre Dame. Being out-rebounded each and every game, however, is more of a concern. We've gone .500 being out-rebounded, and I'd expect that to continue if it isn't addressed.

AP Recap / Box / Play by Play

Louisville Preview

While Louisville has its Kentucky like Marquette has its Wisconsin, something special happens every time the Cards and the Warriors meet up.

Take this audio from a decade ago, January 3, 1998.



Wardle hits to win the game, 71-70.

Since 2000, MU and UL have matched up 16 times. The record? A fitting 8-8. Nearly half of those games, the visiting team has won on hostile ground. Overtimes, triple overtimes. One, two, three point games, won on the last bucket, time and time again. Strap in.

Want to Win the Big EAST? How about starting by winning some games on the road? Maybe against a key rival? How about against a team that we love to hate?

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Louisville. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

66% - Pomeroy's computer simulation gives us a 66% Chance of winning this game.

• Ah, if only games were played on computer, instead of on the court
• Considering that home teams have managed to hold serve consistently this year, treat this with some skepticism

11 - Louisville's National Rating at Adjusted Defensive Efficiency

• Efficiency is ((Points / Possessions)*100)
  
• Their Adj Def Efficiency (85.7) is 11 out of 341 teams, whereas their Offensive Efficiency is only ranked 64
• Louisville is clearly winning games on the defensive end, having only allowed four teams to crack 100 (none in the last seven games)
  
• On the other hand, Marquette has only been below 100 on offensive efficiency once (against SHU)

95% - Pace is 95% correlated to Louisville's Offensive Efficiency

• In other words, Louisville does better on offense the more that they push the pace
• However, Louisville only averages 66.7 possessions / game
• That is one of the slowest tempos in Division 1 (211 out of 341)
• Expecting the run-and-gun pressing team from Louisville? Maybe, but it's not helping them force a faster tempo.
• In fact, Louisville is average (ranking of 162) at forcing turnovers from their opponents
  

8 - Louisville's ranking at 2-point FG% Defense

• Louisville is only allowing opponents to achieve 40.3% on two-point field goals
• The Cardinals are also ranked in the top 10 in blocks
  
• Marquette is making 53% of our 2-point field goals, so something has to give

2 - Number of times that Louisville has allowed an opponent to get over 35% on Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)

• OR% is the ratio of total potential offensive rebounds. Team OR / (Team OR + Opponent DR). Each defensive rebound by the opponent is a potential offensive rebound.
  
• Louisville is holding opponents to an average OR% of 30%
• Marquette is averaging 39.4% on offensive rebounds, but we've been below 33% against our last three opponents
• Will Marquette be able to recapture the Offensive Rebounding prowess?

Summary
Although the reputation of Pitino's teams is that of the running, pressing teams that drop 100 points, this year's Louisville team is largely winning on interior defense. I actually think that a quicker pace helps tip towards Marquette's favor, but only if that means we're able to create offensive rebounds and quality shots in the paint.

Expect another great game on Thursday night. Overtime, Triple Overtime, maybe more.

Time/TV: 6pm CST, ESPN2


Links, Links, and More Links


Official Game Links

• MU Game Notes
• UL Game Notes

Louisville Blogs (lots of good stuff to read through)

• The Cardinal Fan Blog
• Card Chronicle
• Card Game Blog

Marquette previews

• Rosiak's Blog looks at Louisville with an Interview of Tom Crean
• Rosiak's Blog takes a look from Louisville's perspective. Interviews of Rick Pitino and Terrence Williams. Nice job, Todd
• Another fine preview by Eric Silver at MarquetteHoops.com
• Rosiak's Preview from the Journal-Sentinel, highlighting how important this week is for MU

National Coverage

• Sports Illustrated takes a look at the Surging Cardinals and Speedy Marquette
  

..written by Henry & Hilltopper

edit: Added lots more links

Why we love to hate Louisville

Marquette v. Louisville.

This is arguably the Big East's best rivalry, and one of the very best in the nation. If you've followed this series for the past dozen or so years, these names and scenarios will raise your blood pressure:

• Aaron Hutchins


• The Mike Deane fist-pumping garbage


• Brian Wardle


• Travis Diener


• The stunning MU comeback from 19 down in the first half at Freedom Hall


• The Ellis Myles injury


• Francisco Garcia


• Dameon Mason


• Reese Gaines

• Steve Novak
  


• ....and Jerry @!#% Smith

As Tom Heiser points out in his blog, this series has risen to great heights. Tom notes this fact from columnist Rick Bozich

After 12 years apart, the schools resumed playing in Conference USA on Feb. 28, 1996. Marquette won. In double overtime. The score was 80-79. The winning basket came on a three-pointer by Aaron Hutchins with three seconds left. Starting with that game, the teams have played 12 games decided by five points or less, and five that have stretched into overtime.

So, here's the deal. These programs have a healthy respect for one another, and I'd posit that the respective fan bases do as well. But -- sometimes there are teams that you just love to hate.

I love to hate Louisville. Tom Heiser loves to hate Marquette. The folks at the Card Chronicle are having a blast here with a Tom Crean caption contest......and the game is still days away.

So, in keeping with the links above...

Here are the top 5 things I love to hate about the UL rivalry:

#5) The last second no-call on Wardle during the Senior Night Triple OT loss at the Bradley Center. A killer loss. Wardle played a remarkable 52 minutes that night for nought.

#4) "I'll take Niv Berkowitz and the 47 points" The overhyped and overmatched PG led Marquette to the worst loss in team history, a 99-52 thrashing at the hands of the Cardinals at Freedom Hall back in 2005. Oh, the game was on national television. Buzzkill. Thank goodness the Three Amigos arrived soon after.

#3) Reese Gaines. After hitting his game winner at MU - a clutch shot just moment after Diener's apparent dagger - the Madison native pranced around the court in defiant celebration. At least this story had a happy ending. Gaines' reward was the right to work for a Marquette graduate the following fall (he was drafted by Doc Rivers' Orlando Magic). Heheh.

#2) The insipid 'C-A-R-D-S' chant heard at the Bradley Center every year by the pockets of UL fans in the crowd.

#1). Slick Rick Pitino. I know he's an easy target, but I'm a simple man. Pitino rode back to the Bluegrass State and many expected him to replicate the nearly unparalleled success he had over in Lexington. It has largely not worked out that way for Rick where recruiting gaffes, a rash of injuries, and a few underachieving squads have managed to temper progress....just a bit. Not that I am complaining, because if I were a complainer Slick Rick would point out that whining is not one of the 10 Traits of Great Leadership in Business and Life, nor will it help me understand the Ten Steps to Overachieving in Business and Life. Tony Robbins has nothing on this man!

All of this and we have two more days to talk about this game. Enjoy a mini 'rivalry week' :-)

Heartbreak deja vu

Each time Marquette plays Louisville, Bradley Center faithful shave one year off their life expectancy. Tonight was no different.

There's not much more to say other than we had built a 7 point lead at the exact time you want it: with a few minutes left in the game. But over the last 4:37, Marquette would only manage 4 measly points, while UL scored 13, including a last second bomb from Milwaukee native Jerry Smith at the buzzer. Heartbreak. Jerry Smith is the new Reese Gaines, killing Marquette at the buzzer.

I received a Marquette mailing today which contained the ticket forms for post-season play. I think MU might have irritated the basketball gods and jinxed itself by not including the customary NIT ticket forms, believing Marquette was headed for the big dance. With a 3 game losing streak going into 3 tough games (Nova, @ND, Pitt), Marquette needs at least one, or perhaps two to seal a bid. This was unthinkable just 8 short days ago. With 8 teams with .500+ records in the BE, someone is going to be Not In Tournament. -- We need some wins.

I have nothing more to say. It was a completely heartbreaking loss.

GoMarquette Recap -- Box Score

Game Photos I took from my seat

Golden Eagles thump the Cardinals

The home team was roadkill tonight.

The Marquette Golden Eagles raced to a 74-65 victory tonight over the Louisville Cardinals in Freedom Hall. The ballyhooed troika of James, Matthews and McNeal scored 39 of the team's 41 second-half points as MU earned its second consecutive conference road win. With the victory, Marquette improved to 16-4 overall and 3-2 in the Big East.

The Golden Eagles ended the first half with a 33-30 lead and emerged from the locker room to build up a 15-point advantage. Louisville's pressure defense quickly whittled the lead back down to seven and then to five points later in the half, but the Triple Threat dropped the hammer from that point on.

Marquette's second half surge was keyed by Dominic James, who scored 16 of his team-high 18 points after the break. The sophomore All-American hit three key 3-point baskets midway through the second half as the Cardinals rallied from the 15 point deficit. With the Golden Eagles nursing a precarious 51-46 lead at the 11-minute mark, James nailed the first of his three key 'threes'. The shot ignited a 13-4 run that pushed the MU lead back to 14 points with roughly eight minutes to play. James accounted for 11 of MU's 13 points during that stretch.

Wesley Matthews scored 17 points and pulled down five rebounds, while Jerel McNeal had 15 points and 7 assists.

The Golden Eagles' offense, anemic earlier this month, was spectacular tonight. Marquette shot an impressive 50% from the field and 82% from the free throw line (14-17). Rather than settling for forced jump shots and lazy three-pointers, MU was crisp with the ball all evening racking up 13 assists while turning the ball over just 13 times. Marquette's guards were routinely able to find the seam in the Louisville zone defense and then make the extra pass to an open shooter.

Ousmane Barro was the biggest beneficary of the effective offensive sets in the first half as he came up with a dozen points thanks to a number of fine looks from his backcourt mates. Barro finished with 14 points and 11 rebounds, his second double-double in the last three games -- each on the road. With Barro leading the way, MU out-rebounded the Cardinals 32-28.

Big East Hoops analyzes MU's victory here.

Here is the AP recap.

Here is the box score.

MUScoop has the game notes here.

MUScoop has a recap of the post game interviews here.

Scout.com's recap is here.

The Louisville Courier-Journal chimes in here.

Todd Rosiak on the now surging Golden Eagles.