"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Louisville Preview


While Louisville has its Kentucky like Marquette has its Wisconsin, something special happens every time the Cards and the Warriors meet up.

Take this audio from a decade ago, January 3, 1998.



Wardle hits to win the game, 71-70.

Since 2000, MU and UL have matched up 16 times. The record? A fitting 8-8. Nearly half of those games, the visiting team has won on hostile ground. Overtimes, triple overtimes. One, two, three point games, won on the last bucket, time and time again. Strap in.

Want to Win the Big EAST? How about starting by winning some games on the road? Maybe against a key rival? How about against a team that we love to hate?

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Louisville. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

66% - Pomeroy's computer simulation gives us a 66% Chance of winning this game.

  • Ah, if only games were played on computer, instead of on the court
  • Considering that home teams have managed to hold serve consistently this year, treat this with some skepticism
11 - Louisville's National Rating at Adjusted Defensive Efficiency
  • Efficiency is ((Points / Possessions)*100)
  • Their Adj Def Efficiency (85.7) is 11 out of 341 teams, whereas their Offensive Efficiency is only ranked 64
  • Louisville is clearly winning games on the defensive end, having only allowed four teams to crack 100 (none in the last seven games)
  • On the other hand, Marquette has only been below 100 on offensive efficiency once (against SHU)
95% - Pace is 95% correlated to Louisville's Offensive Efficiency
  • In other words, Louisville does better on offense the more that they push the pace
  • However, Louisville only averages 66.7 possessions / game
  • That is one of the slowest tempos in Division 1 (211 out of 341)
  • Expecting the run-and-gun pressing team from Louisville? Maybe, but it's not helping them force a faster tempo.
  • In fact, Louisville is average (ranking of 162) at forcing turnovers from their opponents
8 - Louisville's ranking at 2-point FG% Defense
  • Louisville is only allowing opponents to achieve 40.3% on two-point field goals
  • The Cardinals are also ranked in the top 10 in blocks
  • Marquette is making 53% of our 2-point field goals, so something has to give
2 - Number of times that Louisville has allowed an opponent to get over 35% on Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%)
  • OR% is the ratio of total potential offensive rebounds. Team OR / (Team OR + Opponent DR). Each defensive rebound by the opponent is a potential offensive rebound.
  • Louisville is holding opponents to an average OR% of 30%
  • Marquette is averaging 39.4% on offensive rebounds, but we've been below 33% against our last three opponents
  • Will Marquette be able to recapture the Offensive Rebounding prowess?
Summary
Although the reputation of Pitino's teams is that of the running, pressing teams that drop 100 points, this year's Louisville team is largely winning on interior defense. I actually think that a quicker pace helps tip towards Marquette's favor, but only if that means we're able to create offensive rebounds and quality shots in the paint.

Expect another great game on Thursday night. Overtime, Triple Overtime, maybe more.

Time/TV: 6pm CST, ESPN2


Links, Links, and More Links


Official Game Links
Louisville Blogs (lots of good stuff to read through)
Marquette previews
  • Rosiak's Blog looks at Louisville with an Interview of Tom Crean
  • Rosiak's Blog takes a look from Louisville's perspective. Interviews of Rick Pitino and Terrence Williams. Nice job, Todd
  • Another fine preview by Eric Silver at MarquetteHoops.com
  • Rosiak's Preview from the Journal-Sentinel, highlighting how important this week is for MU
National Coverage
..written by Henry & Hilltopper

edit: Added lots more links

8 comments:

Card1 said...

Good reviews of game

Looking forward to another good game, you all...

Charles Springer said...

Missed Card Game blog in Louisville.

Charles Springer said...

That's http://uoflcardgame.com

BrewCity said...

I'll take MU and the 3 points tonight.

Also, Travis Diener played over 30 minutes last night in the Pacers victory--12 points & 6 assists. Hopefully Tinsley stays in the doghouse for awhile...

Anonymous said...

Wow make a damn shot. If you can't make a jumper go to the hoop.
7pts in 12 mins. This is what I fear about this team. You live by the jumper you die by it. Can win 3 rounds in the tourney or be one and done. Facts are facts and Crean hasn't proven to be a good game coach. How about making an adjustment?

Anonymous said...

That was a pathetic 1st half. Miracle that they are down only eight. 1) Take the mid-range shot 2) Play Fitz a little more 3)Get D. James involved more 4) Rebound,Rebound,Rebound 5)Slow down a bit a play under control

MUWarrior93 said...

Wow, I really hope we learn some stuff from tonight, because this was just a horrible performance by our boys in powder blue. All our weaknesses were exposed and the Louisville fans can bite me for cheering when James got injured.

Anonymous said...

At least Pitino didn't yell to James "stop faking" like classless Crean when Ellis Myles went down.