Pushing some Optimism - Marquette's Path to the Sweet Sixteen

I'm a pretty pessimistic (and often wrong) person when it comes to Marquette basketball. It's weird, because I'm generally optimistic overall. My epiphany came shortly after the end of the Syracuse game. After Syracuse went up by three points early in overtime, I sat down for the rest of the game and said, "I don't believe in these guys. This team never wins anything." My wife derided me afterwards, saying, "You are no fun to watch games with... hiding behind your numbers and pessimism. Be more optimistic." Of course, she was right. Lots of times I look at the numbers and see a low probability of winning percentage and then get ready for a loss.

Needless to say, when I first looked at the numbers for the opening round matchup, they were kind of daunting. The pessimism was rearing its ugly head. After all, Utah State has a lot of strengths and not many weaknesses (taken from Pomeroy's site). But you already know that, and seriously, if you aren't familiar with their team by now, just take a look at the posts from the past few days and any one of the links below. The Aggies are #13 in the country at offensive efficiency. This is a concern because defensive eFG% is our achilles heel. They don't foul much at all, they grab a lot of defensive boards, and they protect the ball great.

Even the weaknesses for Utah State (not forcing turnovers, three point defense) are not areas that Marquette can easily exploit. Throw in the fact that the matchup is a virtual road game for Marquette, and the concerns are compounded.

And yet, I'm wildly optimistic about this game and Marquette's chances to make the Sweet Sixteen. Here are some reasons to stay positive.

1. As referenced in the article linked by Tim, conventional wisdom is picking Utah State to upset Marquette. Roll into Friday's matchup thinking like a hedge fund. I love betting against the conventional wisdom.

2. We're due for some good luck. After last year's Stanford game, and then the close games against teams like Villanova and Syracuse, it's time to have the charm on our side. As Pudner pointed out, a team that gets unlucky with the bounces tends to have things even out. If you don't think luck evens out, I point you to Georgetown and Notre Dame (ha!).

3. I'll admit to being concerned about Utah State. They have some definite strengths. However, we are the best team that Utah State has played all year. Think about that. Remember what we did to Northern Iowa? Also consider that Marquette played 12 ranked teams this year, ten of whom are playing in the 2009 NCAA Tournament. Where do you think Utah State falls on that list.

4. Remember this picture of Barro? Multiply it by four and add it to one of the most significant classes in recent Marquette history. Our guys are NOT going out like that tomorrow.

5. Jesus wants Marquette in the Sweet Sixteen. Not really, but a friend of mine has been saying it all week and I think it's great. Of course, remember that Marquette plays on a Friday, so gimme some of that filet o fish.

At the end of the day tomorrow, it'll be the Aggies that want to Pray.

Tipoff is scheduled for 11:30am CDT from the Taco Bell Arena in Boise. Bring it on!

6. For the stats purists, here are the keys to victory

• Stop them from making shots (eFG% of 52% or less) - Their most efficient offensive players are Gary Wilkinson (eFG% of 60.1%), Tai Wesley (eFG% of 60.5%), Tyler Newbold (eFG% of 56.2%), and Jared Quayle (eFG% of 55.5%). Their least efficient players are Brady Jardine (eFG% of 33%) and Pooh Williams (eFG% of 52%)
• Force turnovers (TO% of 30% or higher), which is about 8 more turnovers than they average. Most likely to turn the ball over are Jardine (TO% of 20%), P. Williams (19.9%), and Wesley (18.6%). Least likely to turn the ball over are Newbold (TO% of 10.7), Wilkinson (13.6%), and Quayle (16.2%)
• Make shots (eFG% of 58% or higher), which is slightly higher than average
• Combining multiple Recommendations
  a. As many offensive rebounds as possible (OR% of 45% or higher)
  b. Protect the ball (TO% of 10% or less)
  c. Prevent offensive rebounds (Utah State OR% of 30%)

Seniors elevated MU to new heights

Four years ago when Dwight Burke, Dominic James, Wesley Matthews and Jerel McNeal enrolled as freshmen the Golden Eagles were coming off a pair of disappointing NIT seasons in Conference USA.

After falling at home by 14 to Western Michigan in the first round of the NIT to end the 2004-2005 season the future was uncertain. Mired in mediocrity, Marquette was moving up in class to the BIG EAST just months after losing its best player to the NBA draft and losing one of its top remaining talents to an unexpected transfer. Competing successfully in the nation's best conference was anything but a given, in fact it was highly doubtful.

Enter the freshmen class of 2005-2006.

As this most memorable class prepares to play its final home game they do so as one of the most vital recruiting class in the history of Marquette basketball. Against the odds -- BIG EAST coaches picked Marquette to finish 12th in the conference back in 2005-2006 -- these players resurrected the program and engineered a consistent run of success not seen in Milwaukee since the glory days of the 1970s. There was no waiting period. These players won immediately, highlighted by a championship at the 2005 Great Alaska Shootout and the memorable trouncing of BIG EAST heavyweight UConn in the program's first-ever conference opener on their way to a 4th place finish in the league.

Along the way these players keyed Marquette's soon-to-be run of four consecutive NCAA tournament appearances, won 92 games (to date a winning percentage of 71%), won at least 10 games the BIG EAST in each season, and re-wrote the Marquette record books across the board.

These gaudy numbers have left many fans anxious for deeper runs into March, and sadly this "Could Have Been Crew" inched to the brink of NCAA tournament success only to be turned away. Consider:

• As freshmen this group watched as Steve Novak, the nation's most efficient offensive player, was unable to drain a wide-open three-pointer to force overtime against Alabama.
• As sophomores this group was robbed of a chance for a deep run in March when the BIG EAST Defensive Player of the Year, Jerel McNeal, went down with a wrist injury costing MU late wins and a more advantageous tournament seed.
• As juniors this group took a lead to the final seconds of overtime against third-seeded Stanford only to watch an NBA lottery pick drain a once-in-a-lifetime bucket to end Marquette's dream of the Sweet 16.
• And of course as seniors the Golden Eagles will play their final games without one of the greatest guards to ever suit up in the blue and gold, Dominic James.

Despite the painful March disappointments, there is no question that these seniors constitute one of the greatest classes in Marquette history. The program is a staple in the top 25, is one of the BIG EAST's most consistent teams, enjoys unprecedented national broadcast appearances, has recaptured the aura of success from years gone by and the current run of NCAA appearances hasn't been matched in 30 years. A program that longed for consistent success on a national scale can rightly claim a place among the nation's best programs thanks to the efforts of these seniors.

Against Syracuse on Senior Day, The Quad will have one more opportunity to electrify the Bradley Center. For all the fans lucky enough to be there, enjoy it and give these kids a most well deserved ovation or ten.

Tipoff is scheduled for 1pm CT on Saturday. The game will appear on ESPN Full Court. For a listing of broadcast specifics by market, click here.

Now let's look at the numbers for tomorrow's game.

Syracuse's Strengths and Weaknesses. As always, this information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report

Strengths

• Not Fouling - Syracuse is #6 in the nation at not sending opponents to the line. They only allow opponents to get a free throw rate of 25%
• Three point defense - Syracuse is #12 in the nation at perimeter defense. Opponents only shoot 29.8% from behind the arc
• Making two-point baskets - Syracuse is #4 in the country at scoring two-point baskets, where they make over 56% of their shots. That helps them be #12 overall at effective Field Goal Percentage

Weaknesses

• Making free throws - Syracuse is #298 in the country from the charity stripe. They only make 64.5% of their free throws
• Forcing turnovers - Syracuse is #283 at forcing turnovers, where they only turn the ball over on 18.6% of possessions
• Defensive rebounding - Syracuse allows opponents to get an offensive rebounding percentage of 34.9% (#263 in the country)

Specific Stats Recommendations (in order of Importance)
1. Make shots (Marquette eFG% of 55% or higher) - This is just slightly higher than Marquette's average
2. Force turnovers (Syracuse turnover rate of 33% or higher) - this is a lot higher than Syracuse's average, but Syracuse is only #199 at protecting the ball. Guys that are sloppiest with the ball? (Devendorf, Ongenaut, Jackson). Guys that are most likely to keep it? (Onuaku, Harris)
3. Crash the boards (Marquette OR% of 55% or higher) - This is twenty offensive rebounds, or nine boards higher than season average. We're looking for big days from Lazar and Jimmy Butler.
4. Stop Syracuse from making shots (Syracuse eFG% of 56% or less) - While Tim may feel that we have no answer to Flynn, the key here is Onuaku, who gets an eFG% of almost 70%!
5. Protect the ball (Marquette TO Rate of 8% or less) - This is six turnovers or less.

Bottom line
Pomeroy predicts a 63% chance of victory and four point win. Unfortunately, our model does not agree (please be wrong, model), with only a 22% prediction of win and nine point loss. Syracuse has been hot and Marquette has been the opposite. The prediction is that Marquette will have slight advantages on turnovers, offensive rebounds, and free throws, but will lose big on field goal percentage. Time to right the ship on the defensive field goal percentage and hope the home crowd rallies the team to a senior day win.




**joint post by Tim and Rob

The road gets tougher: MU travels to Pitt

"If you are going through hell, keep going."

So said Sir Winston Churchill. And so go the Marquette Golden Eagles.

After admirably competitive performances against UConn and Louisville last week, the scrappy Golden Eagles (23-6, 12-4) square off against another highly-ranked opponent on Wednesday night when they travel to Pittsburgh to take on the 3rd-ranked Panthers (26-3, 13-3).

Pittsburgh, twice the top-ranked team in the nation this season, features a pair of all-BIG EAST performers on the front line in 6'8" hulk DeJuan Blair and 6'7" combo forward Sam Young. Last time out the Panthers bounced back from a road loss at Providence to top Seton Hall in New Jersey, 89-78. Young led the Panthers with 29 points and 10 rebounds. Blair, slowed by a minor knee injury during the game, finished with 9 points and 10 boards.

Coming off of back-to-back losses Buzz Williams should expect improvement from all-everything guard Jerel McNeal. The 6'3" senior endured his worst shooting performance of the season against Louisville when he went 'John Starks' by finishing 3-19 from the field in MU's 62-58 loss.

Clearly MU has enough firepower to hang with the BIG EAST's best, even without Dominic James. While McNeal's offensive efficiency has taken a dip in the last two outings, he is still a threat and both Wesley Matthews and Lazar Hayward remain consistent offensive contributors. And we know from Pudner's post last night that Hayward is capable of great things -- and if the junior responds, MU could be in for a fine run in March.

While conventional wisdom held that MU would suffer defensively without James -- and the logic did hold true against UConn -- MU managed to hold Louisville to a mere 62 points while winning the turnover battle and out-rebounding the Cards as well. Pittsburgh, more physical and less athletic than Louisville, poses different challenges entirely.

Tipoff is scheduled for 6:30pm CT on ESPN2.

Opponent Strengths and Weaknesses
As always, this information comes from Pomeroy's scouting report

Strengths
1. Rebounding - Pitt is #1 in the country at offensive rebounding. They rebound 43% of all missed field goal attempts. They're also #15 in the country at defensive rebounding. They limit opponents to an offensive rebounding percentage of 28%
2. Protecting the ball – Pitt is #33 in the country at protecting the ball. They only turn it over on 18% of all possessions
3. Not fouling – Pitt only allows opponents to shoot free throws at a rate of 30% (FTA / FGA)

Weaknesses
1. Getting to the line – Pitt only gets to the line at a rate of 32.1% (#280 in the country)
2. Forcing turnovers – Pitt only forces turnovers at a rate of 19.6% (#221) -- a good sign for a team that is now starts its backup point guard.


Specific Statistics Recommendations (In order of importance)

Multiple recommendations will need to be combined in order to win
1. Turn Pitt over (TO rate of 36% or higher), which is 25 turnovers, or double their average. Highly improbable.
2. Get offensive rebounds (OR% of 42% or higher), which is four more OR's than average
3. Prevent them from making shots (eFG% of 49% or less), or two less FGM than their average
4. Protect the ball (TO% of 13% or less) ... again, winning the turnover battle decisively remains fundamental to MU's success.
5. Make shots (eFG% of 55% or higher)

Model conclusion (Bottom line)
Pomeroy only gives us a 19% chance of victory and ten point loss. Unfortunately, we agree and are slightly more pessimistic (twelve point loss ; 15% chance of victory). The model predicts that MU will have an advantage on turnovers and that’s it. Pitt is expected to have a significant advantage on field goals made and offensive rebounds. Marquette will have to combine multiple recommendations to win in a tough road environment.

Media Updates

• Marquette game notes
• Rosiak on MU showing fight without James
• Pitt is a Final Four contender
• Athlon Sports wins the Sherlock Holmes Award for seeding prognostication
• Dominic James says MU can still win
• Pitt gets MU and UConn in same week
• Pitt readies for short-handed Marquette
• Rosiak's pregame blog
  

**joint post by Rob and Tim

Marquette Travels to Georgetown for Mirror Game

The pursuit of Marquette's (slim chances) of a first-ever BIG EAST title continues on Saturday afternoon when the Golden Eagles (22-4, 11-2) travel to Washington, D.C. to take on the Georgetown Hoyas (14-10, 5-8). Much has been made of The Gauntlet that MU faces during the final two weeks of the regular season, and while the Hoyas are the only one of the final five opponents not ranked, John Thompson's squad is playing better of late.

After enduring back-to-back overtime losses at the hands of Syracuse and Cincinnati, the hard-luck Hoyas embarrassed USF in Tampa earlier in the week, 65-40. With a bounce-back win in hand, the Hoyas will surely ride a wave of emotion on Saturday as they'll celebrate the 25th anniversary of its national title by welcoming back the members of that dominant squad.

In the teams' first meeting of the season, MU ran away with a convincing 92-84 victory. Marquette was able to overcome a gallant effort from the Hoyas' DaJuan Summers (22 points, 7 rebounds) thanks to a Herculean performance by Jerel McNeal and a huge disparity in free throws (Marquette made 30 freebies while Georgetown attempted just 8).

Life on the road figures to be much tougher for Marquette, though the Hoyas have lost three BIG EAST conference games at home so far this year. DaJuan Summers leads the Georgetown in scoring at 14 points per game, while freshman big man Greg Monroe adds 13 points and 7 rebounds. Sophomore point guard Chris Wright also scores 13 per game and is averaging 21 points in the last two outings.

Game time is 1 pm CT on ESPN. This is Marquette's ninth national TV broadcast of the season. By the way, the three games after this are all national broadcasts too.

Strengths and Weaknesses
Not a lot has changed since our first preview of the Georgetown game, although the Hoyas are shooting better from behind the arc. Check out out Pomeroy's scouting report for the most up-to-date info. What has changed, however, are the statistics recommendations.

Specific Statistics Recommendations (In order of importance)
1. Stop Georgetown from making shots (eFG% of 55% or less) - this is 24 FGM (including six threes), which is right at their average
2. Protect the ball (turnover rate of 15% or less), which translates to ten turnovers, or two less than average
3. Get offensive rebounds (OR% of 22% or higher), which is 8 offensive rebounds (three less than season average)
4. Prevent offensive rebounds (GU OR% of 29% or less)... this is one less offensive rebound than their average
5. Force turnovers (GU turnover rate of 21% or higher), which is right at their season average
6. Make shots (eFG% of 55.7% or higher)

Model conclusion (Bottom line)
Pomeroy thinks we're going to lose (28% chance of victory). However, my predictions give us a 63% chance of victory and three point margin. Let's see who's right this time, because this is the most winnable road game Marquette has left on the schedule. The model predicts that Marquette will have an advantage on turnovers and field goals, but lose on offensive rebounds and free throw rate. The game is predicted to be an offensive game, with Marquette around season average, but defense worse than average.

Media Updates

• Here is Rosiak's blog preview
• The official GoMarquette.com preview, including their game notes
• Don't forget to check out this game's podcasts, including Buzz Williams, Wesley Matthews, and Dwight Burke

joint post from Rob and Tim

Marquette vs South Florida

Tonight at 6 pm Milwaukee time, Marquette takes on Stan Heath and the South Florida Bulls (7-14, 2-7). This is Marquette's second game of a three game road trip. Their opponent, South Florida, is coming off a 65-48 loss at St. John's.

This is Marquette's first trip back to South Florida since Jerel McNeal stole the ball to win the game 70-68. In fact, Rosiak's blog entry leads with McNeal's recollection of that game, which he calls "right up there with some of the best (victories)". However, as McNeal also highlights, that was one of those road games that MU seemed destined to choke away before McNeal's late game heroics. In addition, if you recall, last year's game with South Florida was a similarly scrappy game that Marquette won ugly. Finally, although USF's only two wins are against DePaul, the team managed to play Syracuse, Louisville, and Villanova all close at home. Add it all up, and as the bus advertisement says, expect an ugly game.

The key contributor on the Bulls is 6'4 sophomore Dominique Jones, who averages 18.3 points per game. South Florida also gets contributions from 6'10 freshman Augustus Gloop, er Gilchrist (10.5 pts, 4.8 rebounds), and 6'4 senior Jesus Verdejo (13.6 ppg). In other news, USF used to get contributions from 6'4 junior Mike Mercer, but he was recently dismissed from the team.

Game time is 6 pm Milwaukee time. Check here for your local TV clearances.

Moving on to South Florida's strengths and weaknesses.
As usual, most of this information comes from Pomeroy's scouting report

Strengths
1. Defensive eFG% - South Florida is #82 in the country at defensive eFG% (46.5%). They are better at 3-point field-goal defense (#54), limiting opponents to 31.7% from behind the arc
2. Offensive Rebounding – South Florida is #85 in the country at offensive rebounding percentage (35.7%)
3. Keeping the pace slow – USF has the #304 slowest pace in the country (63.2 possessions per game). That is molasses slow.

Weaknesses
1. Offensive eFG% - USF is #271 in the country at effective field goal percentage. They only have an eFG% of 46%. Their team is particularly bad at FTs (#340), but also bad at 2-point (#270) and 3-point (#240)
2. Giving up offensive rebounds – South Florida gives up an offensive rebounding percentage of 35.8% (#280 in the country)
3. Forcing turnovers – USF is #269 in the country at forcing turnovers (only 18.9% of all defensive possessions result in a turnover)
4. Stopping free throws – USF is #265 in the country at letting opponents get to the line (FTA/FGA = 41.1%)

Specific Statistics Recommendations (In order of importance)
1. Stop USF from making shots (eFG% less than 48.4%), or from making shots better than their average
2. Make shots (eFG% higher than 47%). If MU is even close to their standard shooting percentage, the team wins by 10 points or more
3. Force turnovers (TO Rate higher than 22%)
4. Don’t commit turnovers (turnover rate at 15% or less), which is less than average. If MU gets sloppy against an opponent that doesn't force many turnovers, the game will get a lot tighter.
5. Prevent offensive rebounds (USF OR% of 34% or less)

Bottom line
Although Pomeroy predicts an 80% chance of victory, we are slightly less bullish with a percentage of 71%. We predict a very slow game (64 possessions) and a five point Marquette victory. Expect Marquette to lose on eFG% and OR%, but win based on advantages at turnover rate and FTR. Offense and defense are predicted to be worse than average. This will be one tough, ugly, slow game.

Media Updates

• Here's the GoMarquette.com official release, including their always enjoyable game notes.
• The GoMarquette.com site also has podcasts from Buzz Williams, Dominic James, and Jimmy Butler
• The previously mentioned Rosiak Blog
• There's also an interesting story in the Journal-Sentinel about Marquette's tradition of trendsetting uniforms
• Here's the view from South Florida

Marquette and UW-Madison Ready for Annual Rumble

In case you're just waking up to the college basketball season, you've picked a great time to rejoin the madness -- tonight is the annual Marquette-UW-Madison game. The Golden Eagles (6-1) are looking for back-to-back wins against the Badgers (6-1) as they head into finals week on Wisconsin Avenue. MU and UW-Madison have split the last six matchups in the series.

Saturday night's game presents an interesting contrast in strengths and styles of play. Marquette leads the BIG EAST in scoring and the Badgers play at a much more deliberate pace. While Marquette relies on its deep backcourt, Bo Ryan has a roster laden with versatile forwards including Marcus Landry (13.3 ppg), John Leuer (10 ppg), Joe Krabbenhoft (7 ppg), and Tim Jarmusz (5 ppg). Most impressively, the Badger big men shoot the ball well, with each of these guys hitting at least 40% of their three-point attempts this season. Throw in point guard and leading scorer Trevon Hughes (14 ppg), and the Badgers have a lethal lineup.

For Buzz Williams' crew, Wesley Matthews continues to set the pace. Heading into the final regular season match-up against his father's Alma mater, the younger Matthews is second in the BIG EAST in scoring at 22 ppg, leads the nation in made free throws, hits 88% from the charity stripe, and hauls in better than six rebounds per game.

Dominic James has also elevated his play in his senior season delivering a mind-boggling 3.9/1 assist-to-turnover ratio. In fact, since turning the ball over four times in the season opener James has just six turnovers in his last 150 minutes of action -- a remarkable number for a player who handles the ball as much as James is required to do in Marquette's offense. For the year, James is handing out 5.6 assists per game to go along with nearly 12 points per outing. As a side note, today's Journal-Sentinel looks at Dominic James' productivity in the new offense.

While Matthews and James are enjoying resurgent season seasons, Lazar Hayward carries perhaps the biggest burden on Saturday night. The Badgers employ an effective rotation of five skilled big men, potentially a key advantage heading into the game. With Dwight Burke's disappointing senior season -- he's accumulated more fouls than either points or rebounds through the first seven games -- and Pat Hazel's inconsistency, the pressure is on Hayward to hold the Badger frontline in-check while Matthews, James and Jerel McNeal work to create mismatches on the perimeter.

On UW-Madison's Pomeroy Scouting Report, we can see the strengths of the Badgers. It's everything you are familiar with. Their pace is slow (#332 in the country), they don't turn the ball over (#68), they get to the line a lot (#43), they don't give up a lot of offensive rebounds (#16), and they don't let their opponents shoot a lot of free throws (#26).

What is surprising is that UW-Madison's offense (#41) is a lot better than their defense (#127), plus they're shooting a great percentage from three (42.9%), but also giving up a high three-point percentage as well (39.8%).

What should we expect when UW-Madison and Marquette match up? As alluded to in the roundtable, the stats prediction is that the teams will be almost evenly matched.


According to my predictions, Marquette should end up with a slight advantage on three areas, and obviously lose on free throws. Of course, it's silly to give exact predictions, because there is a confidence interval associated with these areas. Which areas are the most important for a Marquette victory?

1. Wisconsin's Turnover Rate - Marquette needs to force UW-Madison into a higher TO% than predicted.
2. UW-Madison's eFG% - UW-Madison makes a high percentage of threes. Marquette is showing signs of being the perimeter defensive team they were last year.
3. Marquette's OR% - Marquette needs to grab as many offensive rebounds as possible.
4. MU's eFG% - Obviously, the good guys need to make their open looks.
   
5. MU's TO% - They also need to protect the ball.
   

In summary, according to the numbers, both teams will be worse than their season averages. Therefore, it will come down to whichever team can impose their will. Right now, the numbers are saying it starts on the defensive end.

Media updates:

• Colin Fly from the AP previews the game.
• Marquette game notes (.pdf)
• Scout.com previews the tilt.
• This game is full of great matchups.
  
• Rosiak's pre-game blog.
• Marcus Landry is a key for the Badgers.
  
• The Journal-Sentinel on MU as the underdog.
• Sportline digs deep with this preview.
• Here's the Appleton Post-Crescent preview.
• Badger Herald chimes in.

Tipoff is scheduled for 8:30pm CT and the game will be broadcast on ESPNU. Steve True and Jim McIlvaine will call the game on AM-540, AM-620. MUScoop will host an in-game chat right here.

*Rob Lowe and Tim Blair contributed to this post.

UPDATED morning media links

Wisconsin - Informal Roundtable

A thought from Hunter S. Thompson (adapted) for the game

"We were warriors then, and our tribe was strong like a river. That river is still running. All we have to do is get out and run, and we will wash those Badgers out of the building..."

Hat tip to MU Chi_IL, with apologies to the original HST Essay.

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In October, we did a preseason roundtable that was a lot of fun. When we're not busy creating fabulous Cracked Sidewalks content (or something like that), the CS team occasionally likes to trade IMs about the team. We had some time to kill on the eve of the big game. Here's our chat session.

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Rob - Okay guys, I guess I'm kicking this off? Who's ready for tomorrow?

Kevin - I am not ready. I will be ready when Fulce and Otule are.

Tim - Rob, your numbers show this game is a tossup.....but does home court factor into those figures in any way?

Rob - No, there's not enough data for away games yet to do the numbers

Tim - Historically, what is the advantage?

Rob – Looking at the numbers for how UW played last year at home vs on the road, they were (no surprise) a better team both offensively and defensively at home. Efficiency margin of 18 at home versus an efficiency margin of 11, which means they were an 89% winning team at home and a 78% winning team on the road.

Yeah, there's some expected worsening from playing on the road, but will it be a real road game?

Kevin – Depends on how many MU season ticket holders have given in to the dark side, and given their tickets to UW fans.

Tim - Tell you what, UW has a group of terrific three-point shooters so far this season (Leuer, Hughts and Landry). Landry is one tough matchup for Lazar. That creates a ton of tough matchups for MU. Leuer, Landry and Krabbenhoft are all bigger mobile players -- MU could struggle to contain that bunch.

Rob – Agreed. We have to expect UW will launch and make more threes than MU. Although, something that's slipped notice is that the MU 3-point defense is getting better again. Anyways, I forget who said it (maybe Rosiak), but UW has their own matchup issues too. Each team has clear strengths and doesn't match up well with the other’s strengths

Tim - Correct

Rob - What do you think are the keys to the game tomorrow?

Kevin - Fouls. If MU is in foul trouble, we will lose. We're just not deep enough to absorb many PFs. Second .. shooting %. If we're below 37-38% .. we're cooked.

Tim - Limiting Wisconsin's ORBs and for Lazar to deliver against this team. Wisconsin has a deep, skilled group of forwards -- Lazar's production is vital.

Rob – My keys, in order of relative importance. Force TO's, limit UW’s eFG%, get ORs, shoot well, protect the ball

Rob – How about in-game issues? Dayton did a great job of limiting touches in the paint. Think Bo will be able to do something similar? I feel like our offense goes haywire when the players can't get into the paint at some level

Tim - Since MU does not have a legitimate post presence, that won't be tough for a deeper Badger team to do

Kevin - Bo's entire game plan will be to clog the lane, make us shoot.

Tim – That’s all the more reason why Lazar is key. I mean, Dwight Burke has more fouls than rebounds this year....and far more fouls than points scored. Lazar has to hold his own. And lets see if Wesley can continue to polish the glass, particularly on ORBs

Kevin - Rebounds? Please. The biggest factor for a MU victory is how many Badger fans are in the Bradley Center.

Rob - Expect a LOT.

Kevin - And if Where the Streets Have No Name is played or not. If Pintens spins Fat Boy Slim again, this game will be over before it starts.

Tim – So… if Bo will likely clog the paint and make MU shoot......what about pace?

Rob - I think this pace ends up somewhere in the middle. UW goes about 61 possessions per game and MU at about 76. Actual game pace will be about 68 possessions.

Tim - 70 possessions and MU wins?

Rob - Pace doesn't really seem to matter in my model. It's not statistically correlated (yet) for either team's offensive or defensive efficiency. It would only really matter if one team were better from an efficiency margin perspective - but they're so evenly matched on the numbers.

Rob - Who do you ultimately pick to win?

Tim - MU wins because Wesley Matthews is the best player on the floor, and I think, the toughest matchup for either coach to contend with.

Rob - I think this matchup is 50/50 according to the straight stats. Therefore, the other variables for me are coaching (advantage UW), system (advantage UW), and home court (advantage MU). Unfortunately, I think there will be a bit too much red in the stands for it to be a road game, so I'm thinking MU fans (including me) go home unhappy. UW by 5-6 points is my fear.

I just don't believe in this team's defense.

Tim – It’s impossible to believe in their defense based on what we have seen to date this year.

Rob – And since the first two keys for me are defensively driven...

Tim - MU is a poor defensive team, and UW runs an effective system.

Rob – But you still think MU wins?

Tim - I can tell you are trying to talk me out of my optimism (which took real effort to bring to this conversation). I'll stick with MU winning a tight game based on the matchup quandary and the home game.

Kevin – I’ll stick with MU winning for a very clear reason: Homerism. And if UW wins, I hate having to cancel Christmas.

2008-2009 Expectations

If nothing else, it was nice to see the passionate reactions to yesterday's post. There were plenty of comments both here and in the MUScoop.com thread. Before we move on, let's be clear about a few things.

Again, we recognize what Buzz meant when he said "I don't know how good we'll be." I'm sure he expects the team to win plenty of games. Yet, despite the returning talent and experience, there is limited post depth plus new coaches and a new system to learn. Still, expectations are high among the fan base, and we believe he wants to manage those expectations.

In the comments section of yesterday's post, Championships Matter raised a fair point. Times are good. We are a returning top 25 team with three 1,000-point scorers. Marquette is likely bound for its fourth consecutive NCAA tournament appearance. We play in the best conference in America. Furthermore, basketball kicks off in 15 days! There is a lot to be excited about and the team should be good.

Even with the flaws on last year's team, they were successful. 25 win seasons are rare and ought to be appreciated. Barring injury, I think it's reasonable to expect that the Warriors will end up with 22-24 regular season wins (we were 22-8 in regular season last year), finish somewhere between 2nd and 5th (11-13 wins) in the BIG EAST, and win their first game in the NCAA tournament. It's not a great season, but it's still very good, and Buzz should expect that the team is at least that good.

What are your expectations for the 2008-2009 season? Weigh in with your official predictions for the season.

edit: revised regular season forecast

An early perspective on Marquette's 08-09 season

......courtesy of the Big East Basketball Report. Here's the summary:

It will be an interesting season for Marquette, their overwhelming experience will help balance the inexperience of their head coach. Having three guards with so much time under their belt will be a big asset for Buzz Williams and should help Marquette remain in contention among the top half of the Big East. Now, if they could just find some consistent and solid interior play to help match-up with more teams, this group might be able to get farther along than they have since joining the Big East.

Getting to Know Kentucky - By the Numbers

Here are the Important Numbers to Know about Kentucky. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

We're going to change up the format a bit because it's the NCAA Tournament -- note that earlier we did a sweep around the Internet to catch all of the day's best media updates.

Let's focus on UK right now:

Overall Pomeroy Rating of 61. That's one of the lowest for any at-large team in the NCAA tournament.
Adjusted tempo of 63.9 possessions / game (#281 in the country).

Kentucky's Offensive Efficiency (National rank of 95) Depends on:

• effective Field Goal % - Average of 52.6% (national rank of 62)
• Offensive Rebounding % - Average of 32.2 (national rank of 203)
• Limiting their Opponents' Free Throw Rate - Average of 41.7% (national rank of 279)
  

Kentucky does well at eFG%, but how well they do offensively also depends on their ability to offensive rebound and prevent their opponents from getting to the line. Both areas are relatively weak for Kentucky.

Although it's not correlated with their offensive efficiency, Kentucky is also one of the best teams in the country at getting to the free throw line. They shoot a free throw 30.3% of the time that they take a field goal attempt (#25 in the country). Marquette is #264 in the country at preventing our opponents from getting to the free throw line.

Kentucky's Defensive Efficiency (national rank of 39) Depends on:

• Opponents' eFG% - Average of 44.9% (national rank of 21)
• Forcing Opponents Turnovers - Average of 19.5% (national rank of 252)
• Limiting their Opponents' Free Throw Rate - Average of 41.7% (national rank of 279)
  

Kentucky's eFG% defense is actually very strong (more on this in a bit). However, just like offensive efficiency, their defensive strength comes from a weak area of forcing turnovers. Note that their ability to prevent opponents from getting to the free throw line affects both their offense and their defense. Marquette must get to the free throw line!

The Wildcat's eFG% defense is anchored by an exceptionally strong ability to limit 2-point field goals (#17 in the country) and to block shots (#33 in the country). If this sounds familiar, it's because it is similar to the strengths of Georgetown, Louisville, and Connecticut.

Combined with the free throw rate and yes, those are warning bells going off. The areas where Kentucky is strong are areas that Marquette has struggled this year. The key difference between Kentucky and the previously mentioned teams is that Kentucky also has a lot more exploitable weaknesses.

• Kentucky turns the ball over on more than 23% of all possessions (#291 in the country). That is sweet, sweet music for Marquette.
• Kentucky is mediocre at limiting opponents' offensive rebounds (#141 in the country). Although MU's OR% has been up and down this year, we are still #27 in the country, and our performance was very strong in the BET.
• As previously mentioned, Kentucky does a poor job of limiting opponents from getting to the free throw line.
• They also do a poor job of forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding.

Basically, the game will come down to how well Marquette forces turnovers/gets offensive rebounds vs how well Kentucky does at forcing a half-court game and preventing easy 2-point baskets.

How has Kentucky been Trending?

Here's a view of how Kentucky has been trending since the start of conference play. Conventional wisdom is that Kentucky has been playing well lately based on a record of 7-3 in their last 10 games. However, their offense and defense run in parallel paths. In other words, when the offense gets better, the defense gets worse (and vice versa).

For a long stretch (Vanderbilt -> Tennessee #2), their defense was worse than their offense. Teams don't win much when that happens, but yet Kentucky kept winning. Lately, their offense has been improving, but their defense has also been getting worse, although the team is still playing winning basketball. I would say that the conventional wisdom on Kentucky playing well is focusing more on their offensive improvements and less on defensive shortcomings.

Keep coming back regularly to Cracked Sidewalks, where we'll have lots more analysis and media updates.

Bring On Pittsburgh!

UPDATED
After the rubber match against Notre Dame yielded a Marquette Victory, MU Nation now readies themselves for a semi-final game against Pittsburgh. Game time is tonight on ESPN at 8:30 Milwaukee time.

There was a certain pep in our steps after finding out that Pitt had defeated Louisville. After all, let's face it... Louisville pretty much wiped the floor with Marquette both times. However, in our first game, Marquette thumped Pitt. In addition, Marquette has a recent record of 4-2 against Pitt and we match up fairly well. There is a decent chance that MU can end up in the Big East finals.

However, Pitt enters this game having won five of their last six games, including a stunning win at Syracuse and last night's overtime victory against Louisville. In last night's game, Sam Young contributed 21 points and 12 rebounds. Young was selected as the Big East Most Improved Player, and was also the Cracked Sidewalks choice as well. If nothing else, in their last five games, Pitt defeated two teams against whom Marquette struggled mightily.

As a blog commenter noted, that first game was Levance Fields' first game back after injury, and he was ineffectual. Since that point, he has worked his way back into the full rotation. As the starting PG, Fields does a great job protecting the ball, which will make it harder to force as many turnovers. Furthermore, the Pitt fan base travels well, and will certainly comprise the majority of cheering fans tonight. There is a lot going well for Pitt right now, and they will also have the motivational edge of exacting revenge for the last game. Do not expect that tonight's game will have the same blowout result as the game at the Bradley Center!

What led to our victory against Pitt? Looking at the Pittsburgh Numbers Recap, we can see that Marquette had an edge in every single one of the four factors. Marquette also dominated on defense, holding Pitt to an efficiency far worse than normal. Marquette shot extremely well, forced Pitt into far more turnovers than normal, and turned the game into one at MU's tempo. Not that it had anything to do with the victory, but this was also the game that Trevor Mbakwe was first cleared to play.

For tonight's game, not much is different than the first Game Preview for Pittsburgh. Pitt remains a team with a stronger offense than defense, highlighted by their ferocity on the offensive glass and stinginess with turnovers.

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Pittsburgh.

• 118.2 - The Offensive Efficiency that Pitt averages on Offense
• That's #12 in the country, at 1.18 points / possession
• 242 - Pitt's national rank at pace
• Pitt plays one of the slowest paces in D1, and they have to.
  
• Their defense is correlated with pace, meaning that the slower the tempo the better their defense
• 67 - Pitt's national rank at defense
• Despite a good showing against Louisville, don't believe the hype about the Pittsburgh defense!
• Only once in the last ten games has their defense been better than average (below 100), although it was last night
  
• Pitt wins games on the offensive end of the court
• 9 - Pitt's national rank at Offensive Rebounding Percentage
• Pitt grabs almost 40% of all potential offensive rebounds. That's obviously pretty good.
• 18.7% - Pitt's turnover rate on offense
• That's #37 in the country
  
• When we played them last, Pitt was harassed into a turnover rate of 23%

The formula for Marquette to beat Pitt is simple. Force turnovers, push the pace, and keep them off the offensive glass. Even with the return of Fields, Marquette matches up well in all of those areas, so expect a much tighter game than last time but a Marquette victory.

edit: Added information about Levance Fields

MU vs. UW - Looking at the Numbers

The folks at Cracked Sidewalks were kind enough to invite me to join and provide my perspective at Marquette basketball. Therefore, we wanted to start things off by looking at the numbers behind the Wisconsin game. Also, please note that all numbers come from Pomeroy's site.

First, starting with Pomeroy's 2008 Ratings, one can see that he has both Marquette and Wisconsin rated as top 10 teams. Unfortunately for the good guys, UW gets the bragging rights by being rated as #7 and we follow just behind at #8. The initial view is that it's a classic Offense (MU's AdjO is #3) vs. Defense (UW's AdjD is #2) matchup. Wisconsin gets fairly low ratings on Consistency, however (rated 330), which means that they do better against worse teams than they do against good teams. Plus, Marquette has a higher rating on strength of schedule. Let's award the initial round to Marquette in a slight nod.

The four factors are from Dean Oliver and they can be explained here. However, let's take a few minutes to describe the four factors since this is my first post.

• Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) - It's like standard FG%, but takes the extra value of a three point shot into consideration. The equation is (FGM + 0.5*3PM) / FGA.
• Turnover Percentage (TO%) - Turnovers per Possessions. A possession is any action by a player or team that ends the action on that end of the floor (FGA, turnover). Possessions are key for lots of the tempo-free stats, so the equation is Possession = FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA
• Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) - This is actually a question of the percentage of total offensive rebounding opportunities that a team pulls down. The equation is OR% = OR / (OR + Opponent's Defensive Rebounds)
• Free Throw Rate (FT Rate) - As Pomeroy says, " This can either be FTM/FGA or FTA/FGA. Typically, for team offense FTM/FGA is used, while on defense FTA/FGA is used."

Digging into the four factors analysis for Wisconsin a little more, we can see the following:


Wisconsin gets very high marks on how they limit their opponents' eFG% and OR%. Not only that, but Wisconsin is a top 10% team for their Turnover %, OR%, and FT Rate defense. About the only areas that UW isn't fairly outstanding are in their own eFG% and their own FT Rate.

Trading that against Marquette, and we can see:


Marquette is a top 10% team in terms of their own eFG% and their TO%. However, MU is decent (top 15%) for OR% and then average at best on defense. We're going to have to score round two to Wisconsin pretty clearly.

Finally, looking at the 2008 game plans for both Wisconsin and Marquette, we can look at the gritty details. What does Wisconsin need to do to win?

• Get their eFG% at a high rate. UW is average at this. MU's eFG% defense is average.
• Advantage - Push
• Need to limit Marquette's eFG%. UW is outstanding at eFG%, having limited five of seven opponents to an eFG% under 40%. On the other hand, this is Marquette's strength.
• Advantage - Slight UW
• Need to keep Marquette off the Offensive Glass. UW is also outstanding at this, having held six of seven opponents under 26% (note Duke as the sole exception). As a counter, Marquette has been above 26% for OR% all times but one, and that was 25.7%.
• Advantage - Push
• Wisconsin needs to force a lot of turnovers. UW is ranked 43 nationally, but four of UW's opponents were average (20%) and the other three were high (>30%). This is also an area where Marquette has been very good. Four of the six times MU has played, they have kept their turnover rate <17%,>
  • Advantage - Slight MU

What does Marquette need to do?

• MU needs to keep their eFG% at a high rate (covered above - Push)
  
• MU needs to keep UW's eFG% down (covered above - Push)
  

Final Conclusion - Push

Yes, it's a copout, but beyond just a matchup in style, it really does appear that the two teams match up very well with each other. There isn't a noticeable difference for either team on the four factors, so it's going to be very interesting seeing how these two teams go after each other and which factors win out.

Is it Saturday yet?

*edit - revised pictures of the four factors for UW and MU ; misc formatting

BigEastCast takes a look at Marquette

SNY's Brendon Desrochers and co-host Dante Carnevale are back on the podcast beat -- these guys are prolific so bookmark this site to keep up.

In the current podcast they look at Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville and Marquette.

Nice work, fellas.

Updates from around the Web

OK......the season is essentially underway -- btw, how about Gardner-Webb! -- and here are two blog entries to check out:

• Todd Rosiak delivers a terrific report today on MU's extraordinary backcourt, or the 'Deep Six'. If anybody needs a refresher on why MU is such a guard-focused program, Crean offers this reminder from the 04-05 season: "Rob Hanley played 26 minutes in the TCU game..........There's some point-forwards, but there's not very many point-centers. But that's what (Marcus Jackson) was." A painful memory.
  
• Brendon Desrochers of SNY goes through his conference, regional and nationwide pre-season picks. While I know some folks are down on Dominic James because of his shooting, not including him on one of the first three All-Big East teams is a curious omission. Still, plenty of fun predictions here from Brendon. And fuel for the fire with Dominic, I suppose.
  
• Zuch over at From Way Downtown -- one of our favorite stops -- compiled his Big East season preview a few days ago. Check it out right here.
• The Big East Basketball Report consolidated its impressive series of previews into one post right here.

SNY previews MU

Brendon Desrochers of SNY in New York continues his in-depth preview of the 2007-2008 Big East season with a look at Marquette. Brendon slots MU in as the 4th best team in the league and zeroes in on the familiar themes -- MU has terrific guards who can't shoot, and bigs who can't play.

Methinks he's selling MU short for the most part -- you'd think Desrochers expects little or no year to year improvement from Crean's bunch despite the heavy dose of returning starters and role players, plus an influx of Big East-ready talent. His notion that MU was 'fringe NCAA team last season' is laughable, plain and simple. And the loss to MSU -- however ugly -- should not the ultimate barometer in evaluating MU last year considering the game was played without the Golden Eagles' best player.

A couple of bones to pick:

• Desrochers ignores Maurice Acker. Acker is the one backcourt player that should allow MU to run new, different looks this season on offense which should result in higher shooting percentages for the Three Amigos, not to mention adding a valuable defender to a team that should turn the opposition over even more regularly than last year. Considering how Desrochers considers McNeal's injury bug to be such an issue, he should have detailed the Acker possibilities. Heck, he also ignored Christopherson -- by all accounts a fine shooter, though there's doubt about how much he will be able to contribute as a freshman.
• Yes, Fitz needs more shots! I am glad somebody else agrees.
  
• Desrochers does not have a feel for Hayward's game, nor does he account for the Lazar's slow start based on the Clearinghouse concerns. In fact, Desrochers misrepresents Hayward's game by pointing out that the forward made just 20% of his three points shots -- as if to equate his game with that of the the Three Amigos. Of course, Hayward attempted the fewest three pointers of any key player on the roster last year and was a surprisingly effective inside presence for MU in conference play (where he started 13 games).
  

Ultimately this is nitpicking......MU does struggle from the field and has a questionable inside presence. Still, with a veteran team returning every viable contributor from a group that won 10 Big East games last season, I'd expect MU to finish better than 4th overall.

Key excerpt:

What should we expect of a team that started the season so swimmingly — reaching the top ten in December — and ending the winter as a fringe NCAA Tournament team, easily dispatched by the superior Spartans? With most of the key players on Marquette juniors and seniors, I'd expect a more even level of play across the season. The Eagles' defense will continue to turn over opponents and try to create easy baskets off those forced errors, but the combination of a backcourt that is not a threat from the outside and a frontcourt without an offensive weapon probably means Marquette's ceiling is lower than it might be otherwise.

ESPN's Big East Preview

ESPN takes an early look at the 2007-2008 Big East season today. The main article talks about the difficulty in moving to an 18-game league schedule, and includes capsules on each team. The MU bit is predictable (the standard great guards, lets see if the frontcourt can hold its own logic ). Sigh.

Bilas takes the honors of predicting the league champs -- and pegs MU as the Big East's third-best team behind Louisville and Georgetown, and in front of UConn, Syracuse and Pitt. Surprisingly, Bilas pegs PC as just the 9th best team in the league -- me thinks they exceed those expectations.

Read it all right here on ESPN.com.

Discuss it here at MUScoop -- several good posts in this thread.

It's wicked early, but is MU a pre-season top 10 team?

The guys at the March Madness All Season seem to think so.

Marquette returns one of the best guard groups in the country in Dominic James and Jerel McNeal, as well as wing Wesley Matthews. Ousmane Barro leads a capable collection of players up front. James will need to regain his freshman season form if the Golden Eagles are going to make a run. Furthermore, post production needs to improve from the likes of Barro and Lazar Hayward.

Hey, I'm a believer. MU returns just about everybody from a team that won 24 games last season, including 10 in Big East action. A team that started three sophomores and a freshman for much of the Big East season, mind you. So, with an influx of young talent (Acker, Christopherson, and hopefully Mbakwe) and a full year of seasoning for its once young roster, this team could emerge as one of the nation's best. We have months and months to analyze this - - once MU's roster is set, we'll take a more in-depth look.

Anyway, here is March Madness All Season's take on the top 10 teams in the country as of this week.

UPDATED
Meanwhile, the off-season MU buzz also caught the attention of NCAA Hoops Today where they look at the Golden Eagles as a team who could have a breakout year based on the return of a strong core of players

So which trio could have a big breakout this year? ........ Marquette trio of Dominic James, Jerell McNeal and Wesley Matthews. I'm not saying they are going to win the natinoal championship, but they have a very good chance of having a season to remember (Big East title, Elite 8 or Final Four even)

Again, count me in.

Blogger's view of MU

Big East Basketball report offers perspectives on the state of MU hoops moving into 2007-2008. Nice work.

Nova / MU Preview

UPDATED:

BIG MONDAY -- 6PM -- ESPN

Tonight Marquette tries to break a 3 game skid against 'Nova.

Our blogging brethren at the Villanova Viewpoint have written up a nice preview of Monday's game.

Remember, wear gold to the game tomorrow. It's clear, we were a mere handful of gold claddened fans short Saturday night, and look what happened. We lost. Don't be the guy who makes us lose by wearing the wrong color.

The first 10,000 attendees the game wearing gold will receive a Steve Novak bobblehead. Non-gold wearing fans will be told to hang their head in shame.

During the game, Marquette Athletics will be holding a fundraiser for the Children's Medical Research Foundation. -- Monetary donations will be accepted upon entrance to Bradley Center. Have a couple bucks ready when you walk into the Bradley Center tonight.

There will be a pre-game Seats For Soldiers ceremony recognizing local military personnel before tip.

• AP preview.
• MU Game Notes
• Villanova Media Guide