Getting to Know Kentucky - By the Numbers

Here are the Important Numbers to Know about Kentucky. As always, information comes from Pomeroy's Scouting Report and Game Plan.

We're going to change up the format a bit because it's the NCAA Tournament -- note that earlier we did a sweep around the Internet to catch all of the day's best media updates.

Let's focus on UK right now:

Overall Pomeroy Rating of 61. That's one of the lowest for any at-large team in the NCAA tournament.
Adjusted tempo of 63.9 possessions / game (#281 in the country).

Kentucky's Offensive Efficiency (National rank of 95) Depends on:

• effective Field Goal % - Average of 52.6% (national rank of 62)
• Offensive Rebounding % - Average of 32.2 (national rank of 203)
• Limiting their Opponents' Free Throw Rate - Average of 41.7% (national rank of 279)
  

Kentucky does well at eFG%, but how well they do offensively also depends on their ability to offensive rebound and prevent their opponents from getting to the line. Both areas are relatively weak for Kentucky.

Although it's not correlated with their offensive efficiency, Kentucky is also one of the best teams in the country at getting to the free throw line. They shoot a free throw 30.3% of the time that they take a field goal attempt (#25 in the country). Marquette is #264 in the country at preventing our opponents from getting to the free throw line.

Kentucky's Defensive Efficiency (national rank of 39) Depends on:

• Opponents' eFG% - Average of 44.9% (national rank of 21)
• Forcing Opponents Turnovers - Average of 19.5% (national rank of 252)
• Limiting their Opponents' Free Throw Rate - Average of 41.7% (national rank of 279)
  

Kentucky's eFG% defense is actually very strong (more on this in a bit). However, just like offensive efficiency, their defensive strength comes from a weak area of forcing turnovers. Note that their ability to prevent opponents from getting to the free throw line affects both their offense and their defense. Marquette must get to the free throw line!

The Wildcat's eFG% defense is anchored by an exceptionally strong ability to limit 2-point field goals (#17 in the country) and to block shots (#33 in the country). If this sounds familiar, it's because it is similar to the strengths of Georgetown, Louisville, and Connecticut.

Combined with the free throw rate and yes, those are warning bells going off. The areas where Kentucky is strong are areas that Marquette has struggled this year. The key difference between Kentucky and the previously mentioned teams is that Kentucky also has a lot more exploitable weaknesses.

• Kentucky turns the ball over on more than 23% of all possessions (#291 in the country). That is sweet, sweet music for Marquette.
• Kentucky is mediocre at limiting opponents' offensive rebounds (#141 in the country). Although MU's OR% has been up and down this year, we are still #27 in the country, and our performance was very strong in the BET.
• As previously mentioned, Kentucky does a poor job of limiting opponents from getting to the free throw line.
• They also do a poor job of forcing turnovers and offensive rebounding.

Basically, the game will come down to how well Marquette forces turnovers/gets offensive rebounds vs how well Kentucky does at forcing a half-court game and preventing easy 2-point baskets.

How has Kentucky been Trending?

Here's a view of how Kentucky has been trending since the start of conference play. Conventional wisdom is that Kentucky has been playing well lately based on a record of 7-3 in their last 10 games. However, their offense and defense run in parallel paths. In other words, when the offense gets better, the defense gets worse (and vice versa).

For a long stretch (Vanderbilt -> Tennessee #2), their defense was worse than their offense. Teams don't win much when that happens, but yet Kentucky kept winning. Lately, their offense has been improving, but their defense has also been getting worse, although the team is still playing winning basketball. I would say that the conventional wisdom on Kentucky playing well is focusing more on their offensive improvements and less on defensive shortcomings.

Keep coming back regularly to Cracked Sidewalks, where we'll have lots more analysis and media updates.

Bring On Pittsburgh!

UPDATED
After the rubber match against Notre Dame yielded a Marquette Victory, MU Nation now readies themselves for a semi-final game against Pittsburgh. Game time is tonight on ESPN at 8:30 Milwaukee time.

There was a certain pep in our steps after finding out that Pitt had defeated Louisville. After all, let's face it... Louisville pretty much wiped the floor with Marquette both times. However, in our first game, Marquette thumped Pitt. In addition, Marquette has a recent record of 4-2 against Pitt and we match up fairly well. There is a decent chance that MU can end up in the Big East finals.

However, Pitt enters this game having won five of their last six games, including a stunning win at Syracuse and last night's overtime victory against Louisville. In last night's game, Sam Young contributed 21 points and 12 rebounds. Young was selected as the Big East Most Improved Player, and was also the Cracked Sidewalks choice as well. If nothing else, in their last five games, Pitt defeated two teams against whom Marquette struggled mightily.

As a blog commenter noted, that first game was Levance Fields' first game back after injury, and he was ineffectual. Since that point, he has worked his way back into the full rotation. As the starting PG, Fields does a great job protecting the ball, which will make it harder to force as many turnovers. Furthermore, the Pitt fan base travels well, and will certainly comprise the majority of cheering fans tonight. There is a lot going well for Pitt right now, and they will also have the motivational edge of exacting revenge for the last game. Do not expect that tonight's game will have the same blowout result as the game at the Bradley Center!

What led to our victory against Pitt? Looking at the Pittsburgh Numbers Recap, we can see that Marquette had an edge in every single one of the four factors. Marquette also dominated on defense, holding Pitt to an efficiency far worse than normal. Marquette shot extremely well, forced Pitt into far more turnovers than normal, and turned the game into one at MU's tempo. Not that it had anything to do with the victory, but this was also the game that Trevor Mbakwe was first cleared to play.

For tonight's game, not much is different than the first Game Preview for Pittsburgh. Pitt remains a team with a stronger offense than defense, highlighted by their ferocity on the offensive glass and stinginess with turnovers.

Here are the Top Five Numbers to Know about Pittsburgh.

• 118.2 - The Offensive Efficiency that Pitt averages on Offense
• That's #12 in the country, at 1.18 points / possession
• 242 - Pitt's national rank at pace
• Pitt plays one of the slowest paces in D1, and they have to.
  
• Their defense is correlated with pace, meaning that the slower the tempo the better their defense
• 67 - Pitt's national rank at defense
• Despite a good showing against Louisville, don't believe the hype about the Pittsburgh defense!
• Only once in the last ten games has their defense been better than average (below 100), although it was last night
  
• Pitt wins games on the offensive end of the court
• 9 - Pitt's national rank at Offensive Rebounding Percentage
• Pitt grabs almost 40% of all potential offensive rebounds. That's obviously pretty good.
• 18.7% - Pitt's turnover rate on offense
• That's #37 in the country
  
• When we played them last, Pitt was harassed into a turnover rate of 23%

The formula for Marquette to beat Pitt is simple. Force turnovers, push the pace, and keep them off the offensive glass. Even with the return of Fields, Marquette matches up well in all of those areas, so expect a much tighter game than last time but a Marquette victory.

edit: Added information about Levance Fields

MU vs. UW - Looking at the Numbers

The folks at Cracked Sidewalks were kind enough to invite me to join and provide my perspective at Marquette basketball. Therefore, we wanted to start things off by looking at the numbers behind the Wisconsin game. Also, please note that all numbers come from Pomeroy's site.

First, starting with Pomeroy's 2008 Ratings, one can see that he has both Marquette and Wisconsin rated as top 10 teams. Unfortunately for the good guys, UW gets the bragging rights by being rated as #7 and we follow just behind at #8. The initial view is that it's a classic Offense (MU's AdjO is #3) vs. Defense (UW's AdjD is #2) matchup. Wisconsin gets fairly low ratings on Consistency, however (rated 330), which means that they do better against worse teams than they do against good teams. Plus, Marquette has a higher rating on strength of schedule. Let's award the initial round to Marquette in a slight nod.

The four factors are from Dean Oliver and they can be explained here. However, let's take a few minutes to describe the four factors since this is my first post.

• Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) - It's like standard FG%, but takes the extra value of a three point shot into consideration. The equation is (FGM + 0.5*3PM) / FGA.
• Turnover Percentage (TO%) - Turnovers per Possessions. A possession is any action by a player or team that ends the action on that end of the floor (FGA, turnover). Possessions are key for lots of the tempo-free stats, so the equation is Possession = FGA-OR+TO+0.475xFTA
• Offensive Rebounding Percentage (OR%) - This is actually a question of the percentage of total offensive rebounding opportunities that a team pulls down. The equation is OR% = OR / (OR + Opponent's Defensive Rebounds)
• Free Throw Rate (FT Rate) - As Pomeroy says, " This can either be FTM/FGA or FTA/FGA. Typically, for team offense FTM/FGA is used, while on defense FTA/FGA is used."

Digging into the four factors analysis for Wisconsin a little more, we can see the following:


Wisconsin gets very high marks on how they limit their opponents' eFG% and OR%. Not only that, but Wisconsin is a top 10% team for their Turnover %, OR%, and FT Rate defense. About the only areas that UW isn't fairly outstanding are in their own eFG% and their own FT Rate.

Trading that against Marquette, and we can see:


Marquette is a top 10% team in terms of their own eFG% and their TO%. However, MU is decent (top 15%) for OR% and then average at best on defense. We're going to have to score round two to Wisconsin pretty clearly.

Finally, looking at the 2008 game plans for both Wisconsin and Marquette, we can look at the gritty details. What does Wisconsin need to do to win?

• Get their eFG% at a high rate. UW is average at this. MU's eFG% defense is average.
• Advantage - Push
• Need to limit Marquette's eFG%. UW is outstanding at eFG%, having limited five of seven opponents to an eFG% under 40%. On the other hand, this is Marquette's strength.
• Advantage - Slight UW
• Need to keep Marquette off the Offensive Glass. UW is also outstanding at this, having held six of seven opponents under 26% (note Duke as the sole exception). As a counter, Marquette has been above 26% for OR% all times but one, and that was 25.7%.
• Advantage - Push
• Wisconsin needs to force a lot of turnovers. UW is ranked 43 nationally, but four of UW's opponents were average (20%) and the other three were high (>30%). This is also an area where Marquette has been very good. Four of the six times MU has played, they have kept their turnover rate <17%,>
  • Advantage - Slight MU

What does Marquette need to do?

• MU needs to keep their eFG% at a high rate (covered above - Push)
  
• MU needs to keep UW's eFG% down (covered above - Push)
  

Final Conclusion - Push

Yes, it's a copout, but beyond just a matchup in style, it really does appear that the two teams match up very well with each other. There isn't a noticeable difference for either team on the four factors, so it's going to be very interesting seeing how these two teams go after each other and which factors win out.

Is it Saturday yet?

*edit - revised pictures of the four factors for UW and MU ; misc formatting

BigEastCast takes a look at Marquette

SNY's Brendon Desrochers and co-host Dante Carnevale are back on the podcast beat -- these guys are prolific so bookmark this site to keep up.

In the current podcast they look at Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville and Marquette.

Nice work, fellas.

Updates from around the Web

OK......the season is essentially underway -- btw, how about Gardner-Webb! -- and here are two blog entries to check out:

• Todd Rosiak delivers a terrific report today on MU's extraordinary backcourt, or the 'Deep Six'. If anybody needs a refresher on why MU is such a guard-focused program, Crean offers this reminder from the 04-05 season: "Rob Hanley played 26 minutes in the TCU game..........There's some point-forwards, but there's not very many point-centers. But that's what (Marcus Jackson) was." A painful memory.
  
• Brendon Desrochers of SNY goes through his conference, regional and nationwide pre-season picks. While I know some folks are down on Dominic James because of his shooting, not including him on one of the first three All-Big East teams is a curious omission. Still, plenty of fun predictions here from Brendon. And fuel for the fire with Dominic, I suppose.
  
• Zuch over at From Way Downtown -- one of our favorite stops -- compiled his Big East season preview a few days ago. Check it out right here.
• The Big East Basketball Report consolidated its impressive series of previews into one post right here.

SNY previews MU

Brendon Desrochers of SNY in New York continues his in-depth preview of the 2007-2008 Big East season with a look at Marquette. Brendon slots MU in as the 4th best team in the league and zeroes in on the familiar themes -- MU has terrific guards who can't shoot, and bigs who can't play.

Methinks he's selling MU short for the most part -- you'd think Desrochers expects little or no year to year improvement from Crean's bunch despite the heavy dose of returning starters and role players, plus an influx of Big East-ready talent. His notion that MU was 'fringe NCAA team last season' is laughable, plain and simple. And the loss to MSU -- however ugly -- should not the ultimate barometer in evaluating MU last year considering the game was played without the Golden Eagles' best player.

A couple of bones to pick:

• Desrochers ignores Maurice Acker. Acker is the one backcourt player that should allow MU to run new, different looks this season on offense which should result in higher shooting percentages for the Three Amigos, not to mention adding a valuable defender to a team that should turn the opposition over even more regularly than last year. Considering how Desrochers considers McNeal's injury bug to be such an issue, he should have detailed the Acker possibilities. Heck, he also ignored Christopherson -- by all accounts a fine shooter, though there's doubt about how much he will be able to contribute as a freshman.
• Yes, Fitz needs more shots! I am glad somebody else agrees.
  
• Desrochers does not have a feel for Hayward's game, nor does he account for the Lazar's slow start based on the Clearinghouse concerns. In fact, Desrochers misrepresents Hayward's game by pointing out that the forward made just 20% of his three points shots -- as if to equate his game with that of the the Three Amigos. Of course, Hayward attempted the fewest three pointers of any key player on the roster last year and was a surprisingly effective inside presence for MU in conference play (where he started 13 games).
  

Ultimately this is nitpicking......MU does struggle from the field and has a questionable inside presence. Still, with a veteran team returning every viable contributor from a group that won 10 Big East games last season, I'd expect MU to finish better than 4th overall.

Key excerpt:

What should we expect of a team that started the season so swimmingly — reaching the top ten in December — and ending the winter as a fringe NCAA Tournament team, easily dispatched by the superior Spartans? With most of the key players on Marquette juniors and seniors, I'd expect a more even level of play across the season. The Eagles' defense will continue to turn over opponents and try to create easy baskets off those forced errors, but the combination of a backcourt that is not a threat from the outside and a frontcourt without an offensive weapon probably means Marquette's ceiling is lower than it might be otherwise.

ESPN's Big East Preview

ESPN takes an early look at the 2007-2008 Big East season today. The main article talks about the difficulty in moving to an 18-game league schedule, and includes capsules on each team. The MU bit is predictable (the standard great guards, lets see if the frontcourt can hold its own logic ). Sigh.

Bilas takes the honors of predicting the league champs -- and pegs MU as the Big East's third-best team behind Louisville and Georgetown, and in front of UConn, Syracuse and Pitt. Surprisingly, Bilas pegs PC as just the 9th best team in the league -- me thinks they exceed those expectations.

Read it all right here on ESPN.com.

Discuss it here at MUScoop -- several good posts in this thread.

It's wicked early, but is MU a pre-season top 10 team?

The guys at the March Madness All Season seem to think so.

Marquette returns one of the best guard groups in the country in Dominic James and Jerel McNeal, as well as wing Wesley Matthews. Ousmane Barro leads a capable collection of players up front. James will need to regain his freshman season form if the Golden Eagles are going to make a run. Furthermore, post production needs to improve from the likes of Barro and Lazar Hayward.

Hey, I'm a believer. MU returns just about everybody from a team that won 24 games last season, including 10 in Big East action. A team that started three sophomores and a freshman for much of the Big East season, mind you. So, with an influx of young talent (Acker, Christopherson, and hopefully Mbakwe) and a full year of seasoning for its once young roster, this team could emerge as one of the nation's best. We have months and months to analyze this - - once MU's roster is set, we'll take a more in-depth look.

Anyway, here is March Madness All Season's take on the top 10 teams in the country as of this week.

UPDATED
Meanwhile, the off-season MU buzz also caught the attention of NCAA Hoops Today where they look at the Golden Eagles as a team who could have a breakout year based on the return of a strong core of players

So which trio could have a big breakout this year? ........ Marquette trio of Dominic James, Jerell McNeal and Wesley Matthews. I'm not saying they are going to win the natinoal championship, but they have a very good chance of having a season to remember (Big East title, Elite 8 or Final Four even)

Again, count me in.

Blogger's view of MU

Big East Basketball report offers perspectives on the state of MU hoops moving into 2007-2008. Nice work.

Nova / MU Preview

UPDATED:

BIG MONDAY -- 6PM -- ESPN

Tonight Marquette tries to break a 3 game skid against 'Nova.

Our blogging brethren at the Villanova Viewpoint have written up a nice preview of Monday's game.

Remember, wear gold to the game tomorrow. It's clear, we were a mere handful of gold claddened fans short Saturday night, and look what happened. We lost. Don't be the guy who makes us lose by wearing the wrong color.

The first 10,000 attendees the game wearing gold will receive a Steve Novak bobblehead. Non-gold wearing fans will be told to hang their head in shame.

During the game, Marquette Athletics will be holding a fundraiser for the Children's Medical Research Foundation. -- Monetary donations will be accepted upon entrance to Bradley Center. Have a couple bucks ready when you walk into the Bradley Center tonight.

There will be a pre-game Seats For Soldiers ceremony recognizing local military personnel before tip.

• AP preview.
• MU Game Notes
• Villanova Media Guide