"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, March 12, 2006

Analysis: RPI vs. Seed from 2005

As they say in the financial advertisments, past performance is no guarntee of future success.

But if the committee follows the pattern of last season, Big East teams should receive higher seeds than their RPI position would indicate, and lesser conferences will be moved down in the ranks.

From the 2005 data, using teams ranked between 17th and 35th (the 5 through 9 seeds), 10 teams were from the big 6 conferences, 2 from CUSA, and 8 from the mid-major conferneces.

Of the 10 teams from the Big Six, 1 was seeded below expectations, 2 were even, and 7 receved at least one seed improvment over their RPI.

Of the two CUSA teams, Charlotte moved up one spot, Cincy moved down.

Of the 8 remaining teams, 7 moved down. One was even. Not one received a seed above where their RPI would dictate.

Will the committee follow this same pattern? Nobody knows. But the history suggests a good chance that MU will be seeded higher than their current RPI would predict.

RPI Seed Team Variation from RPI

"5" Seeds
17 7 Southern Illinois -2
18 5 Alabama 0
19 4 (Florida) +1
20 4 (Syracuse) +1
Big East and SEC teams treated well. SIU (MVC) was pushed down to a 7 seed.

"6" Seeds
21 5 Michigan St +1
22 8 Pacific -2
23 7 Cincinnati -1
24 6 Utah 0
MSU from the Big Ten improves over where they'd be expected. Pacific--from the Big West--was seeded two places below expectations. Cincy from CUSA was one place below.

"7" Seeds
25 6 Louisiana St. +1
26 13 (Vermont) -6
27 5 Georgia Tech +2
28 6 Texas Tech +1
The pattern is beginning to emerge. Big conference teams move up, while Vermont (from the America East) was displaced an incredible six seeds below where the RPI would dictate.

"8" Seeds
29 10 St. Mary's -2
30 7 Charlotte +1
31 9 Missisippi State -1
32 9 Nevada -1
St. Mary's from the WCC is two places below expectations. Nevada from the WAC one place below--despite a sweet 16 run the year before. Charlotte from CUSA up one. Mississippi State from the SEC was down one.

"9" Seeds
33 11 UTEP -2
34 7 West Virginia +2
35 12 ODU -3
36 9 Pittsburgh 0

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