"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Thursday, March 15, 2012

1:45 CST on CBS: MU has edge at every position, BYU has height at every position

When you compare MU and BYU position-by-position for today’s 1:45 CST showdown on CBS, MU has the edge at every position except for back-up point guard, while BYU has the height advantage at every position except back-up shooting guard.

PosJersBYUValueMarquetteValueHeight and top 400 ranks
PG10Matt Carlino935Junior Cadougan4906-f-2, 84th ast, 317th St
SG1Charles Abouo380Darius Johnson-Odom996-f-5, 373rd off
Sw13Brock Zylstra1027Vander Blue4216-f-6, 118th eFG%
SF34Noah Hartsock192Jae Crowder26-f-8, 73rd off, 100th eFG%, 137th TO, 139th Blk
PF0Brandon Davies444Davante Gardner3206-f-9, 173rd DR%, 190th Blk, 307th Stl, 50th FD
B-PG2Craig Cusick1224Derrick Wilson14456-f-2
B-SG20Anson Winder1441Todd Mayo10156-f-3
B-Big33Nate Austin1190Jamil Wilson5066-f-10, 58th Off Reb

The draw was good for MU in that we did not draw an overpowering offensive rebounding team – the only area in which MU struggles. As for concerns, MU did not play well out of the conference double-bye against Louisville, and now faces another team that has already faced the jitters of a “play-in” game, and Brigham Young ranks 25th in effective height, and Marquette had a lot of trouble with two teams about the same height (LSU 15th and Vandy 27th). As a #3 seed, MU should have drawn a true 14th seed which would be a top 70 team, but because BYU can’t play on Sunday they officially dropped them from a 13 to a 14 seed, meaning we open with a top 50 team instead of a top 70 team.

But when you go through position-by-position, BYU’s “4” (power forward) is their best player in 6-foot-8 Noah Hartsock. But as the 192nd most valuable player in the country, he didn’t have the year Jae Crowder did as the 2nd most valuable player in the country. Likewise, their second best player is 6-foot-5 off guard Charles Adouo who was the 380th most valuable, but that doesn’t compare to DJO who came in 99th of 4000 players despite tons of defensive attention. The position-by-position, with some notes on any area a BYU player was in the top 400 in Pomeroy’s stats is above.

Looking closer at the stats, starting with the one thing that can kill MU – offensive rebounding:

Offensive Rebound% - The best news in this match-up is that none of BYU players are in the top 500 in offensive rebounding. However, 6-foot-10 Nate Austin would rank 58th in offensive rebounding if he had played enough minutes, and had been playing 13 to 17 minutes each game until facing the high-paced Iona, including a 10-rebound game against Gonzaga. For comparison, if Gardner had enough minutes to qualify he would rank 15th in the country in offensive rebounding – but the fear is Austin coming in to form a huge overall size difference like LSU did to Marquette.

Defensive Rebound% - Obviously, the flip side is defensive rebounding, where Jamil and Davante just aren’t as strong, leaving it all up to Crowder (162nd) staying out of foul trouble. Davies (173rd) is their best defensive rebounder, and almost as good as Crowder.

Best offensive rating – Hartsock is the 73rd most efficient offensive player in the country, but no other BYU player is in the Top 400. For comparison, Crowder is the most efficient offensive player on the floor, ranking 46th in the country.

effective Field Goal % - You can see why Hartsock ranks in the top 200 players in the country, as he is the 100th best shooter in the country, nudging out MUs best in Crowder at 134th.

Assist rate – Cadougan is the 60th best assist man in the country, but Carlino isn’t far behind at 84th.

Turnover rate (fewest TO) – Crowder is the 36th best at protecting the ball, and again you see Hartsock is a similar player as the 137th best at protecting the ball.

Blocked Shots – Hartsock is also 137th in blocking shots, way behind Chris Otule but slightly better than J. Wilson, who is 159th.

Steal% - In a stat dominated by guards, Davies is 307th in steals, while Crowder is unbelievably 27th, and 7th among all BCS players.

So the matchups are there if we don’t get eaten up by size or come out flat due to the extra time off.

1 comment:

jumpi said...

Marquette Music: