"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Is anyone big enough to stop Marquette? Only Kentucky and OSU are even close to MUs size

Seeing the players walk around Phoenix since last night, it was apparent why CBS Sports, opposing coaches, and ESPN radio hosts have started to talk about how much Marquette looks like a physically dominating FOOTBALL team. I ran the average weight and minutes played for the season for every team in the Sweet 16, and was amazed at how much BIGGER Marquette, Kentucky and Ohio State are than the other 13 teams still alive – and advantage that could be big as NCAA games typically grind down to half court affairs:

Biggest teamsHeightWeight
2Ohio State6-foot-6220
5Michigan State6-foot-5210
12NC State6-foot-6206
15Florida 6-foot-4199

While the equation does give a small percentage of minutes for Otule’s early play, it also has pretty limited minutes for Davante due to the games and minutes missed with injuries. More minutes for Davante, and MU will average even more than their current 19-pound advantage per matchup against Florida tonight as we seek our 7th Elite 8 in history.

With Jae Crowder apparently even getting attention from some NFL Scouts as a potential tight end, Jay Bilas (in the 97th percentile in the national brackets) just said that Draymond Green and Jae Crowder were playing at the highest level of any player in the tournament. CBS Sports questioned if Florida’s bigs would simply be physically outmatched with Gardner and Crowder in the game. The mood as we’ve seen walking around Phoenix last night seems like a very confident group of Warriors.

All that being said, Pomeroy has Florida winning by one point. It seems Florida could use their three-guard defense to force turnovers like Louisville did, or use their four deadeye three-point shooters to keep passes one step ahead of Marquette’s rotation like Notre Dame did in their win. However, if Marquette can prevent that from happening and this turns into a typically physical NCAA tournament game, MU does look to dominate the physical match-ups.

PGErving Walker5-foot-8171Junior Cadougan6-foot-1205
SGKenny Boynton6-foot-2183Darius Johnson-Odom6-foot-2215
SwBradley Beal6-foot-3196Vander Blue6-foot-4200
SFPatric Young6-foot-9245Jae Crowder6-foot-6225
PFErik Murphy6-foot-10229Davante Gardner6-foot-8290
B-PGMike Rosario6-foot-3180Derrick Wilson6-foot-0215
B-SGScottie Wilbekin6-foot-2175Todd Mayo6-foot-3190
B-BigCasey Prather6-foot-6195Jamil Wilson6-foot-7220
InjWill Yeguete6-foot-7210Chris Otule6-foot-11265

To go through position by position by Value Add and NBA projections:

Starting point guard – Erving Walker is a top 50 Value Add player, while Junior is a top 500, but certainly Junior is the more traditional point guard – making the rest of the team great. Certainly power against speed in this game, as Junior will have to chase the tiny Walker on defense, but hopefully overpower him on offense.

Starting shooting guard – Kenny Boynton rates as Florida’s best player at 22nd in the country, so a little edge in Value Add, but DJO is rated ready for the NBA NOW, while Boynton is expected to be one year away.

Third Guard – Bradley Beal is a top 100 player so a big edge overall over Vander Blue – a top 500 player. Beal is also expected to be a 1st round draft pick this year, but obviously this isn’t about Blue outscoring Beal, but containing him with his great defense.

Small Forward – Patric Young is also expected to be a 1st round pick in the draft, but wasn’t close to Crowder in Value Add this year (2nd best player to 310th). He does give them someone who can try to match up against Crowder, but as CBS Sports notes, if he goes there how can anyone stop Gardner when he is in? Another huge challenge for Crowder, but we hope it goes as well as it did vs. Kevin Jones and West Virginia.

Power Forward – Davante has the edge over Erik Young in Value Add, despite missing time this year, and CBS Sports notes the potential mismatch – another reason Florida will probably try to press to make it an up-and-down game that requires Jamil to be in instead of Davante.

Back-up point guard – Mike Rosario torched MU when with Rutgers, but again Derrick’s duty if in will be similar to Blue’s – just lock down on defense.

Back-up other guard – Scottie Wilbekin ranks just behind Todd Mayo for the year in Value Add, but that counts a dry spell for Mayo who has gotten back to early season form and appears on the verge of exploding to give MU a big edge here.

Back-up big man – Obviously Jamil will start and may end up playing more than Davante, but he is virtually even with Murphy in Value Add and Casey Prather doesn’t even rank in the top 2000 in the country, so really Marquette has a 2-to-1 edge in Jamil and Davante vs. Murphy.

Injuries – pretty even, with Florida also missing a good big man in Will Yeguete, like Otule a top 500 player when he played.

We are getting pretty close to the team send off and then tip-off – hopefully MU can overpower another opponent.

No comments: