"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Monday, December 10, 2007

MU vs. UW - Numbers Recap (Team)

What a great weekend. I have to agree with mu_hilltopper that everything was just a little bit sweeter after the Marquette victory. Anyways, we went through the box score and looked at the numbers to see how things played out.

Clearly, the two most important numbers were 81 and 76. Ha!

When we did the preview, the conclusion was basically that the keys were advantage on Effective Field Goal % (eFG%), Offensive Rebounding % (OR%), and for Wisconsin, Turnover Rate (TO%). Both teams appeared to be fairly evenly matched. So how did these keys match up during the game?

  • eFG % - Wisconsin did better at eFG%
    • MU was held below their season average (57%).
    • However, MU has never had eFG% below 48% and this game was no exception.
    • Wisconsin was ranked #3 on Pomeroy's site at eFG% defense. They had held five of seven opponents under 40% eFG%, so for MU to hit 50% was excellent.
  • Marquette was dominant at Offensive Rebounding %, not only against UW but also against their season average (38.6%).
    • To put it in context, an OR% of 38.6 put MU as top 15% of all D1 teams.
    • 53.8% is off the charts. It's an obscene number.
    • Wisconsin had held six of seven opponents under 26%, and the sole exception was Duke at 32%!
    • I clearly believe this to be the key of the game.
  • Marquette also managed to win the TO Rate battle, but finished worse than their season average.
    • A TO Rate of 20% is about average, so MU ended up about average.
    • Wisconsin needed to force a higher rate of turnovers in order to win.
  • Despite all of my complaining, FT Rate ended up being somewhat unimportant for both teams.

Let's just look at a few additional stats. Obviously, it's no secret that Marquette wanted to push the pace. The game plan for Wisconsin actually shows a negative correlation to pace. What did the final pace look like?

Good news! Marquette ended up with more possessions than UW and a faster pace than their season average. Interestingly enough, the Points / Possession ended up identical for both teams, and was consistent with MU's season average.

That's it for this review. We'll address the MU players in the next segment.


3headedmonster said...

The numbers are right on target. The offensive rebounding was the difference, especially in a hostile environment. Offensive boards kill the crowd because they are usually based on effort. Losing that battle sucks the life out of the players and the crowd.

MBRox said...

Thanks for the pre and post game analysis. It's fun to read, even for a Communication major, like myself. I like what you're bringing to the site! Thanks for taking the time...

Anonymous said...

Mattews appears to be in a funk. Not as smooth or confident as last year. We NEED him to get it back. He's doing the little things, but needs to take the ball to the hole and either draw fouls or get points.

Anonymous said...

Nice job Henry. I liked your key about # of possessions. More to this, MU had 4 more steals than UW, led by McSteal's five. With 1.1 pts/poss. that was the difference. Also, while MU's foul total was at a disadvantage to Bucky, they did get to the line as much by taking it to the hole.