"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Friday, November 25, 2016

Value Add Rankings, Projected NCAA Bids and Impact Players Returning in December

Value Add ranks UNC No. 1, while remaining more skeptical of the AP No. 1 Kentucky. A UNC-Nova (#3) rematch for the national title is possible, but the Value Add dark horse is Utah. The Utes would rank 16th based on their players' Value Add to date, but Value Add projects that big man transfer David Collette in the coming weeks makes them the fifth best team in the country.

On the downside, Virginia's 50.77 is actually No. 1, but that includes 1.9 from Memphis transfer Austin Nichols, who has been kicked off the team. After subtracting out his value UVa falls three spots to No. 4 at 48.87.

ValueAddBasketball.com calculates Marquette with just enough talent to sneak into the last NCAA tournament spot, giving the Big East six teams. That ranks behind only the ACC (12), Big 12 (8) and Big Ten (7), and with a better ratio than the Big Ten. Value Add gives the Pac 12 five teams, but for some reason is particularly unkind to the SEC while giving only Kentucky and Florida a bid. However, a half dozen SEC teams are in the top 66, so that number could grow. The A10, American Athletic and West Coast Conference all have three bids. The other 23 conferences only get one bid.

Marquette will face Fresno State while Value Add calculates they have the 189th best team in the country. The week after that game Karachi Edo will take final exams to try to become eligible at which point Value Add calculates his impact (+5.0 Value Add) moves them up 89 spots to make them the 100th best team. Last year he went 7 of 9 shooting to keep close to Utah in the NCAA.

Here is the ranking of teams that either project to make the tournament, be in the last four out, or to have a player returning in the next few weeks (mid-season transfers or early season injuries) to give a significant Value Add boost in the second number - or in the case of UVa and UConn a big loss.

RnkTeamConBid?Value AddTrans/InjKey Transfers/Injuries changing 2nd number
1North CarolinaACCauto49.9849.98We don't project return value for long-term injuries like Theo Pinson - the players listed below should be back within a couple of weeks.
4VirginiaACCbid50.7748.87Austin Nichols -1.9 Memphis transfer dismissed after strong opener.
David Collette +8.0 Value Add's 18th best freshman in 2015 before Utah St. tried for months to block his transfer to Utah, where ex-NBA center Larry Krystkowiak could make him another NBA center.
8Wichita St.MVCauto46.6046.60
10KentuckySECauto46.5746.57AP No. 1
15Miami FLACCbid41.8641.86
16ClemsonACCbid39.4741.47Elijah Thomas +2.0 former top 50 prospect transferred from Texas A&M to play in December.
19Saint Mary'sWCCbid40.7140.71
20Iowa St.B12bid40.7040.70
21ArizonaP12bid40.1940.19AP No. 8
24West VirginiaB12bid39.4439.44
26OklahomaB12bid38.0039.00Dante Buford +1.0 coming off suspension after some action as a freshman.
29East Tennessee St.SCauto38.8138.81
32Seton HallBEbid38.3438.34
34Ohio St.B10bid37.9937.99
36Texas TechB12bid37.7137.71
37Notre DameACCbid37.6637.66
38Michigan St.B10bid37.4837.48
39Rhode IslandA10bid37.3437.34
40Virginia TechACCbid37.2337.23
41Kansas St.B12bid36.9136.91
42Florida St.ACCbid36.5236.52
43TCUB12bid32.3736.37Alex Robinson +4.0 a number of double digit outings at Texas A&M before transfer, enough to take them from 67th to 43rd and make the tournament.
45Wake ForestACCbid36.0836.08
48MarquetteBEbid35.2135.21 Yes the last bid, and no I did not fudge - just ran the numbers.
51North Carolina St.ACClast434.9634.96
54UNC WilmingtonCAAauto32.6634.16Names in italics below would make the tournament by winning their conference
Ambrose Mosley +2.5 at UNCW for senior year after being leading 3-point shooter for 27-8 ODU team.
57Cal St. FullertonBWauto26.3333.83Khalil Ahmad +7.0 conference freshman of the year missing semester for academics, Riley Dearring +1 hit a couple of shots for Wisconsin's tourney team two years ago.
60St. BonaventureA10gain32.4833.48Nelson Kaputo +1.0 some action as freshman and needs to pass exams to return Dec 17.
72San Diego St.MWCauto31.3631.36
78Incarnate WordSlndinelig30.5730.57new D1 not eligible yet, but otherwise could make tournament at-large or as conf champ
80North Dakota St.Sumauto29.9429.94
84CharlotteCUSAauto28.0929.59Austin Ajukwa +1.5 two seasons at Clemson and should contribute at Charlotte.
89Georgia TechACCgain27.8529.05Josh Heath +1.2 takes the court against Tulane Saturday after 4-game suspension.
100Fresno St.MWCgain23.2128.21Karachi Edo +5.0 capped 3 strong first years with 7 of 9 shooting to keep close to Utah in the NCAA, but must pass exams in mid-December.
103Stephen F. AustinSlndauto28.0628.06
107MissouriSECgain25.8427.84Jordan Barnett +2.0 returns to Missouri from Texas - former top 100 recruit.
116UT ArlingtonSBauto27.2027.20
118Florida Gulf CoastASunauto27.1027.10
126Texas SouthernSWACauto22.7426.24Tevon Saddler +3.5 led UNCG in scoring and assists before transfer.
128Boston UniversityPatauto26.1626.16
158New Mexico St.WACauto24.3624.36
167Cal St. BakersfieldWACgain23.6424.04
Following teams have significant player changes to their current Value Add
Fallou Ndoye +0.4 played in 30 games as a freshman at Mississippi St. then six more last year before transfer.
184DePaulBEgain22.4223.42Austin Grandstaff +0.2 hit some 3-pointers for Ohio State.
191Western KentuckyCUSAgain21.5023.00Jabari McGhee +1.5 hit 62% of his shots (23-37) at Tennessee.
192ConnecticutAmerlost27.4622.96Terry Larrier -4.5 off to a great start but season ending knee injury crushing for Uconn.
224Kent St.MACgain19.0821.08Taishaun Johnson +2.0 after averaging 12.5 points as a freshman at South Alabama, a nice addition.
235Norfolk St.MEACauto20.3420.34
236Tennessee TechOVCgain19.8020.30Curtis Phillips +0.5 eight points a game at Campbell.
239South FloridaAmergain14.6320.13Jahmal McMurray +4.5 all-freshman team hopes to return from suspension, Isaiah Manderson 1.0 Texas Tech transfer 4.4 ppg as freshman.
257Alabama St.SWACgain15.9518.95Demetrius Houston +3.0 returns home to Montgomery after showing promise his freshman year at Mississippi St.
263Florida AtlanticCUSAgain15.4218.42Justin Massey +3.0 solid player at Florida Atlantic as a freshman, then transferred to Brown for 9 games before coming back.
280PepperdineWCCgain16.8517.85Kameron Edwards +1.0 after scoring 7 points/gm as a freshman he will return from a jaw injury.
294HowardMEACgain13.1517.15James Daniel +4.0 quest for 2000 points resumes after early season ankle injury.

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