"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Saturday, December 31, 2016

53% Chance at Bid; Updated Top 50; JJJ Closing on MVP

A year ago I wrote that Marquette needed 23 wins to make the NCAA tournament and had a 3.2% chance of making the tournament. I will not recreate the math here, but using the same combination of RPI Forecast, MU needs only 20 total wins this year (season and/or Big East tournament) and has a 54 percent chance at a bid.

I ran an extremely detailed effort today to review all player changes and other factors, and rank MU as having the 43rd best chance at making the tournament (see top 50 here).

The two impact performances vs. Georgetown resulted in Marquette becoming on of only eight teams with five players in the top 10% of all players, and JuJuan Johnson (worth 6.50 points per game) almost taking over first place from Luke Fischer (6.57).

Nat'l RnkTop 10% of all playersPt Value
225Luke Fischer #406.57
230JaJuan Johnson #236.50
384Haanif Cheatham #255.43
396Sam Hauser #105.36
411Markus Howard #05.25

There are now 4,123 players rated in www.valueaddbasketball.com, leaving Howard just in the top 10 percent - and keep in mind players get a ZERO when they miss a game.

The only other teams with that balance are Arizona, Clemson, Duke, Louisville, UNC, Purdue and SMU.

A 50% better chance of making the tournament than last year is a nice Christmas Present.

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