Cracketology: Top-16 Preview

Dusty May & Michigan are comfortably the top overall seed

Photo by Rey Del Rio | Getty Images

 

It feels like it's a week late, but tomorrow bracketologists get their annual reset as the current Top-16 Reveal will give everyone a snapshot of where the top teams in the country stand and who's just outside looking in. Cracketology has your preview of what we expect to see when the Reveal comes out. We'll talk a bit about the toughest decisions on each seed line and why teams landed where they did.

1-Michigan Wolverines: This might have been controversial a week ago, but the Wolverines are now the only 1-loss team in the country, they rank #1 in six of the seven team sheet metrics, are tied for the lead in Quadrant 1 wins and lead the nation in Quadrant 1+2 wins. It was the right call a week ago, it is an easy call today.

2-Duke Blue Devils: Duke's metrics are second only to Michigan, they are tied in Quadrant 1 and second in Quadrant 1+2 wins, but where they separate from the Wildcats is their six Quadrant 1A wins to Arizona's four. Doing that against a tougher schedule also reinforces their position here.

3-Arizona Wildcats: Despite their two losses, Arizona is still clearly a 1-seed. The metrics, Quadrant 1 wins, and what they've done against a tougher schedule than any of the next three teams make them a lock for the top line.

4-Houston Cougars: The positive case for Houston is that their predictive average puts them here. Compared to Iowa State they have more Quadrant 1 and Quadrant 1+2 wins against a tougher schedule. Compared to UConn, they have more Quadrant 1+2 wins and far better predictives. However...Iowa State did just beat Houston, albeit at home. If Wednesday results aren't factored in, UConn likely would still be on the top line. Close call, but at the end of the day we're going with Houston because I believe on a neutral court they're the better team than Iowa State or UConn. For conspiracy theory fans, Houston on the top line Saturday makes a lot of sense because it sets up all four 1-seeds playing each other later that same day (Michigan/Duke at MSG while Arizona is at Houston).

5-Iowa State Cyclones: While Iowa State has a decent 1-seed argument, none of their team sheet metrics are in the top-4 and they lack the Quadrant 1 wins to be higher than this. If the Selection Committee emphasizes the result from Hilton the Cyclones could be higher, but they will certainly be no lower than a 2-seed.

6-Connecticut Huskies: From a resume perspective, especially the important Wins Above Bubble, UConn looks like they should be higher. But the loss to Creighton will likely be factored in based on last year's precedent, and that's a loss neither Houston nor Iowa State have. The Huskies do have the better record and a neutral court head-to-head win over Illinois, which is why they hold on to this spot.

7-Illinois Fighting Illini: Illinois has the predictive metrics to be on the top line but too many losses and not good enough resume metrics to get up there. A win over Michigan next week could get them in consideration, but it's the only real needle moving game left on their schedule before the Big 10 Tournament so this is probably their ceiling.

8-Purdue Boilermakers: Everything about Purdue's resume screams 2-seed. Metrically they are right in line there and they have a great win profile with no bad losses. While this isn't the season the Boilermaker fans were hoping for, having six of the seven metrics between 5-8 should have them safely as a 2-seed.

9-Kansas Jayhawks: The top end wins are good enough for the top line, but loss volume and poor predictives compared to the teams ahead of them keep Kansas here. They still get Houston at home and go to Arizona, so the resume wins to move up are on the schedule, as are some easier opponents to juice the predictive numbers. If Kansas can get their predictives into single digits they could be a 2-seed, or even a 1-seed with some help.

10-Florida Gators: The predictive metrics say they should be higher, but loss volume and relatively poor resume metrics drag them down. Florida's resume is solid but there aren't major needle moving opportunities left for them. This may be their ceiling, but they are likely the most dangerous 3-Seed when the actual bracket comes out.

11-Nebraska Cornhuskers: Fans might think Nebraska is playing poorly after starting 20-0 before losing four of six. However, in that stretch they are still ranked #16 in Torvik and their kenpom ranking has actually improved from #12 when they lost their undefeated record at Michigan until today where they sit at #11. While they may not have the fortune that fueled their great start, this is still a deserving 3-seed. One thing to watch, if they end up on a cut line between the 2/3 or 3/4, their non-conference strength of schedule could drag them lower than expected.

12-Gonzaga Bulldogs: The good news is Gonzaga's twenty-six wins are tied with Miami-Ohio for the most in the country. The bad news is their two losses are a 40-point shellacking at the hands of Michigan and an embarrassing Quadrant 3 loss at Portland, the only such loss among our projected Top-16. It's hard to seed this team as their numbers are more reflective of a 4-seed, but looking at their resume it's hard to put any of the 4-seeds ahead of them.

13-Michigan State Spartans: Sparty is the team I most considered against Gonzaga, but more than double the losses, worse in five of the seven team sheet metrics, and not definitively better in terms of win quality were all reasons I couldn't push them higher. I'm comfortable with them as a 4-seed.

14-Vanderbilt Commodores: They've got a great win profile and metrics comparable to Michigan State. The biggest difference is that while Vandy has a better overall win collection, they don't have any single result that can match Michigan State's win over Illinois. When it's this close, those are the fine lines that separate teams.

15-Virginia Cavaliers: What really jumps out is Virginia's 4-0 record against Quadrant 1A opponents. While their metrics are all right on the edge of the 4/5 lines, they've got enough at the top to justify inclusion tomorrow.

16-Texas Tech Red Raiders: Honestly, if any 4-seed shows up ahead of Gonzaga, this might be the pick. Due to the guidance given to the media committee yesterday, Texas Tech was dropped down because of J.T. Toppin's season-ending injury. While they have the best collection of top-tier wins (Duke, Arizona, Houston) their metrics even with Toppin were more fitting of a 4-seed than a 3-seed and it's hard to not see them falling off without him. They will likely fall from the 3-seed they could have been, the should still keep their place in the Top-16 until we're actually able to see how they do without Toppin. Their next two are home games against Kansas State and Cincinnati so they should get a chance to acclimate to their new lineups before traveling to Ames.

17-Alabama Crimson Tide: If Alabama is in the Top-16, the resume metrics and elite schedule will be the reasons. However they lack the massive quality wins of a Texas Tech and the overall profile of a Michigan State or Vanderbilt. If they are included, I think it might be Virginia that's left out. Another factor that won't be mentioned but might factor in is Charles Bediako. Alabama added three wins over tourney teams with him in the lineup and now that he's been ruled ineligible, the Selection Committee may quietly knock them down a couple spots because of it.

18-Tennessee Volunteers: The predictive average indicates Top-16 and the Volunteers have a win over Houston that's aging very well, but there just isn't enough depth at the top of the resume to match the teams ahead of them. 

19-Arkansas Razorbacks: Arkansas is the team where everything is close but not quite good enough. They don't have a single metric in the top-16. Their six Quadrant 1 wins are good, but they lack the truly elite wins and overall Quadrant 1+2 win volume of teams ahead of them.

Here's the full seed list and bracket:

Multibid Leagues

SEC: 11

Big 10: 10

ACC: 8

Big 12: 8

Big East: 3

WCC: 3

1 in 14,000,605

Dr. Strange: "I went forward in time to view alternate futures, to see all the possible outcomes of the coming conflict."

Peter Quill: "How many did you see?"

Dr. Strange: "Fourteen million six hundred five."

Tony Stark: "How many did we win?"

Dr. Strange: "One."

On today's Scrambled Eggs podcast, host Joe McCann theorized about a possibility of Marquette winning the Big East automatic bid and what it would take for that unlikely outcome to happen. Essentially, if Dr. Strange were forecasting Marquette's future, what possible set of outcomes would end up with a Marquette NCAA Tournament bid? Finding the concept interesting, I took the thought experiment and applied it to the remaining Big East schedule. How could this worst of all possible seasons turn around and end with Marquette in the NCAA Tournament? This, gentle readers, is that one outcome.

First, we need to look at the remaining Big East schedule. Because it doesn't matter for our purposes, we are going to simply assume that UConn will win out, St. John's will only lose to UConn, and the current 3-5 standings will hold as Villanova, Seton Hall, and Creighton beat everyone except UConn and St. John's (those three don't play each other at all). This also assumes every team currently ranked 6-11 in the Big East (Marquette, Georgetown, Xavier, DePaul, Butler, and Providence) will lose every remaining game they play against those top-5 teams. Here is how we need the remaining Big East regular season games for teams 6-11 to play out, with red highlights for losses and green for wins:

This scenario puts Marquette alone in 6th place in the conference, giving us the following current standings:

1. Connecticut

2. St. John's

3. Villanova

4. Seton Hall

5. Creighton

6. Marquette

However, it's obviously a mess when you get to teams 7-11 who are in a five-way tie for last place (or 7th place, if you're an optimist). So how do we sort those teams out? According to the Big East rules, in a multiple team tie with three or more teams, "Teams are viewed as a 'mini-conference' when comparing head-to-head result. The team, or teams with the best winning percentage vs. the other teams in the mini-conference gains the advantage, and the team, or teams, with the worst winning percentage vs. the other teams in the mini-conference are seeded the lowest. Only common opponents will be considered." This means the results of Xavier, DePaul, Georgetown, Butler, and Providence only against each other are compared. Here are those standings:

Go figure, even when they tie for seventh, DePaul still ends up last in the league. Unfortunate for the Blue Demons, but it does provide two more answers for our league standings:

1. Connecticut

2. St. John's

3. Villanova

4. Seton Hall

5. Creighton

6. Marquette

7. Xavier

11. DePaul

Teams 8-10 are yet to be determined. Going back to the league rules, "If three or more (but not all) teams have the same best winning percentage in the original mini-conference, then those tied teams create a new mini-conference and follow this same procedure beginning of Step 1 (Multiple Team Tie)." So now we scale back to a smaller mini-conference with the following standings:

This gives us the following final standings:

1. Connecticut

2. St. John's

3. Villanova

4. Seton Hall

5. Creighton

6. Marquette

7. Xavier

8. Georgetown

9. Butler

10. Providence

11. DePaul

And with that, we have our full Big East conference tournament bracket:

So we've got the bracket we need, what about the results once that bracket comes out? Here's what we need to see:

Wednesday

• Xavier over Providence: Honestly, this one could go either way, but Xavier winning is more poetic.
• Marquette over DePaul: Obviously, Marquette can't win a one in fourteen million shot if they don't win the first game of the tournament.

Quarterfinals

• Connecticut over Georgetown/Butler: I didn't include the Wednesday result here because neither of these teams are beating UConn. Just not happening. Even Dr. Strange can only stretch reality so far.
• Seton Hall over Creighton: They split the season series with the two games separated by 3 points, this should be a good one.
• Xavier over St. John's: The Musketeers led St. John's by double-digits in the second half in Cincinnati and led with a minute to play, then led again with under a minute at MSG before the Johnnies escaped in overtime. This is a game Xavier can win, though honestly, we've already seen Providence win at MSG so either of the 7/10 teams could pull this off.
• Marquette over Villanova: Twice Marquette was down by 3 and had a final possession to force overtime. 'Nova is a team Marquette can beat, just need to trim that 3 point lead to 2 and make the shot on the final possession.

Semifinals

• Seton Hall over Connecticut: Since UConn returned to the Big East in 2021, Dan Hurley has donated one win every season to his alma mater. The Pirates were within one point in the final minute the first time they played, their NCAA hopes will rely on pulling off the upset at MSG, and Hurley hasn't paid his annual debt yet.
• Marquette over Xavier: From a matchup perspective, I don't think Marquette can beat St. John's, but they already beat Xavier once (and Providence, if they end up in this slot) and could do it again.

Final

• Marquette over Seton Hall: I don't think Marquette can beat UConn either, but they had second half leads on Seton Hall both times they played. Finish the second half, cut nets, and go into the NCAA Tournament as a 16-19 team, likely earning a 12-seed. And this is the 1 in 14,000,605 scenario by which Marquette makes the NCAA Tournament. What happens beyond that? We're taking this one miracle at a time.

The one where the boys talk about evolving

Well, well, well. #mubb certainly threw out a bit of a bombshell this weekend(while letting X bomb 3s but pffffsssttt, whatever), in which Shaka and co reveal that the program is evolving. It is very heavily implied that that evolution, the portal is open for business. We spend a bulk of the pod discussing the report, the implications the program, and what impact we think we'll see this off season. As part of that discussion, we talk retention which leads us to discuss the teams performance over the last week. We then remember Chris Farley for happy times and close out with a preview of St Johns. Enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/m76z7eai2svhcxya/2026_Feb_15_Portal_Kombata3aa1.mp3

 

Cracketology: 404 Top-16 Reveal Not Found

Historically, the Top-16 Reveal is held on the Saturday after the Super Bowl. As soon as football exits stage left, college basketball takes over and that first weekend is when they announce to the casuals who the top teams are and give everyone a preview of what the NCAA Tournament will look like.

Except...they're not doing that this year. They quietly pushed the Top-16 Reveal to next Saturday, February 21st. That very suddenly made all the writing I did on the teams I would expect to see there if the Reveal were held now moot. And after hours of time wasted on graphics and writing, well, I don't really have the time for a whole new theme.

This week, it will just be a seed list and bracket. Here's how we would project things if today were Selection Sunday:

Multibid Leagues

SEC: 11

Big 10: 10

ACC: 9

Big 12: 7

Big East: 3

WCC: 3

NMD win has us feeling a new feeling, positive trends

 Well, #scrambledeggs took a break but #mubb did not. The team went 2-1 in games during the break and generally looked the best they've looked in 2026. We break down the player performances and game results and what the team seems to be building towards improved play. We then celebrate this week in MU history with a game that uplifted an otherwise sad season (sound familiar?). We then look to the week ahead and whether or not #mubb can continue the positive performances in February. Enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/uqhm7bn5ue8jw6qx/2026_Feb_7_NMDap2bj.mp3

 

Cracketology: Big East Win Targets

Kevin Willard has Villanova in good shape for the 2026 NCAA Tournament

Photo by Ella Johnson | The Villanovan

As the calendar turns to February, things look pretty bleak for the Big East. Just three teams are safely in the field at the moment and everyone else seems to be moving away from the bubble rather than towards it. Today we'll take a look at current Wins Above Bubble scores from T-Rank and use that to calculate what the Big East needs from its at-large contenders to get over the hump. Bear in mind that right now, there are 27 teams between +1.0 and -1.0 WAB, so we're looking for Big East teams to get above +1.0 to be considered on the right side of the bubble. So what to Big East teams need to do to secure NCAA bids? Let's look:

UConn Huskies (21-1, +7.7 WAB): 0 wins

Dan Hurley's team could lose all of their remaining games and still safely be in the field, likely as a single-digit seed. They would take some bad losses along the way, so the Selection Committee would certainly knock them down a bit, but they would still have a +2.65 WAB and will be dancing no matter what happens.

St. John's Red Storm (16-5, +2.3 WAB): 4 wins

The Johnnies need to go 4-6 the rest of the way to feel secure. That would give them a +1.75 WAB that should be enough. They are favored in all their remaining games except against UConn. If they want to move their seed up, they really need to pick up at least one of the UConn games. There just isn't much left on the schedule for them to really improve their resume.

Villanova Wildcats (16-5, +2.3 WAB): 5 wins

In his first year at Villanova, Kevin Willard should feel pretty secure of dancing. They don't have a ton of heft at the top of the resume, but they are favorites in 8 of their remaining 10 and 3 of their 5 road games are against teams in the bottom half of the league. A 5-5 record would give them a +1.55 WAB. Like St. John's, there isn't a ton of room to move up, with the late February games against UConn and at St. John's being their only real resume movers.

Shaheen Holloway is hoping to edge the Pirates inside the bubble

Photo by Mason Bashkoff | Seton Hall Athletics

Seton Hall Pirates (16-6, +0.7 WAB): 6 wins

The Pirates are getting back on track after a four-game losing skid, but it doesn't get easier with road games at Villanova, Creighton, and Butler in their next four. The downside for them is they only have 9 games left and are underdogs in 6. What would really help are wins against the three teams above them as they currently only have one projected win over the field (N.C. State). If they don't win at 'Nova on Wednesday, they likely will need to either beat UConn or St. John's in the last week of the season to feel safe. Getting to 6-3 down the stretch would put them at +1.97 WAB and almost certainly secure. 5-4 would have them on the bubble and given the parity on the bubble this year, particularly with their lack of high-end wins, it probably wouldn't be enough.

Butler Bulldogs (13-9, -1.3 WAB): 8 wins

Thad Matta's seat has to be feeling a bit warm. Losing at St. John's is acceptable, but a home loss to Georgetown likely ended their fading bubble hopes. They need to go 8-1 down the stretch to feel at all comfortable, which would give them a +1.66 WAB.

Creighton Blue Jays (12-10, -1.6 WAB): 8 wins

Greg McDermott has seen his team drop 3 of 4 with two of those losses being to bottom feeders Providence and Marquette on the road. They are hanging on by a thread with only 9 games remaining. The Jays are also underdogs in 6 of those with 5 away from home. They need a miracle. 8-1 would qualify as a miracle and put them at +1.66 WAB.

Ed Cooley looks to have thrown away any NCAA hopes

Photo by Ian Bethune | Storrs Central

Georgetown (-2.5 WAB) & Xavier (-2.6 WAB): Win Out

Both of these teams are effectively done and would have to go undefeated the rest of the regular season. For the Hoyas, that would put them at +1.55 WAB while Xavier would get to +1.98 WAB. Put this in the virtually impossible bin, and note these teams do play each other on February 28th so even if both get red hot, they won't both finish in the at-large places.

DePaul (-3.1 WAB), Providence (-4.5 WAB), & Marquette (-6.5 WAB): 4 wins at MSG

DePaul is the only one of these that can get over 0.0 WAB by winning out, but their bad losses and lack of quality wins will have them on the outside looking in. Both Providence and Marquette have already taken on too much water to get above zero, so their only hope is a four-game run in the Big Apple.

Let's look at the current seed list and field:

Multibid Leagues

Big 10: 10

SEC: 9

ACC: 9

Big 12: 7

Big East: 3

A-10: 2

MAC: 2

Mountain West: 2

WCC: 2

Green shoots of growth?

 Welcome back to #scrambledeggs #mubb fans, we've got some growth (we think). Keep in mind the season is lost and we are viewing things through the lens of what do we have for next year but this past week was actually semi-fun for us. We talk about Nigel setting a freshman record in an improbable victory over Providence and the return of athletic Damarius Owens. For the MU memory this week, it's a special one that directly involved your podcast folks. Lastly we then turn to the next three games (SOMEONE is leaving for vacation and won't be on the pod next week) to talk about where, if anywhere, we can see a win coming. As always, enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/42hc4taidzuxe45u/2026_Jan_25_Not_Terrible8t2ei.mp3

 

The one where we talk about the future

 Welcome back #mubb, it's another week of losses and conversations. We initially discuss the performance against St Johns and DePaul and search for positives (DO is turning a corner?). We then use that as a pivot into fan reaction to the team and potentially the most critical offseason in the modern era. We then look ahead to the Providence and Butler games to see if there is any hope this week for victories. I know things aren't good, but at least we have each other. Enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/d792x7sc9id3vcah/2026_Jan_18_More_Ls9b74v.mp3

 

Cracketology: Marquette-Free Zone

 

Silas Demary has UConn back among the nation's elite

Photo by Wendell Cruz | Imagn Images

While this is a Marquette blog, I personally ruled out Marquette's at-large hopes with the loss to Maryland. I tried to keep hope alive but the 5-6 non-con record meant Marquette needed to go 15-5 in Big East play just to get on the bubble, and their 1-6 conference record make that an impossibility. Let's move on to some early takeaways from our first seed list and bracket of the year.

Talent Overload at the Top

While the 1-seeds (Arizona, UConn, Michigan, Duke) were all clearly deserving, in any other year you could make a case for anyone through #10 overall Vanderbilt to be a 1-seed in mid-January. This is a loaded season with immense talent at the top of the sport. Every team on the top three seed-lines are viable national title contenders given what they've already accomplished.

This isn't just borne out by the eye test but by the numbers as well. Last year was widely regarded as one of the strongest in recent memory because of the strength of the one-seeds, but the top of the sport is almost undeniably better and deeper this year than last. Compare the number of elite teams in terms of kenpom's Adjusted EM (measures team efficiency) and T-Rank's WAB (measures resume quality). There are simply more elite teams this year than there have been in any season since COVID, and generally speaking as many teams this year at the top of the sport as there were the past 4 years combined.

Using metric comparisons, the 2-seeds and 3-seeds of this year look more like the 1-seeds if they'd had these seasons in any of the previous four years. The combination of what is the strongest freshmen class in years along with more effective transfer portal usage has really strengthened the sport. In addition, teams are scheduling better, which has led to a more entertaining regular slate of games. You could very well argue the sport has never been better, and it should make for an incredible tournament.

Big East Hoping for Five Bids

Today we have 4 Big East teams in the field. 1-seed UConn, 6-seed Villanova, 8-seed St. John's, and 10-seed Seton Hall. While Creighton isn't in our first eight teams out, they were considered and could make a push toward a tourney bid. The Jays have been better since the start of league play and with home games against UConn, Villanova, and Seton Hall still to come, there are some resume opportunities as long as they don't drop any games that would really hurt them (surviving Georgetown at home in overtime was a must-win).

If I was setting an over-under number today for the league, it would be 3.5 bids, but there is a real possibility at 5. The only chance at more than that would be for one of Xavier, Butler, Georgetown, DePaul, Providence, or Marquette to win the Big East tournament. None of those teams look to have a realistic shot at an at-large bid based on how they've played so far this season.

Interesting Bubble Names

It isn't just seeing New Mexico and George Mason on the right side of the bubble, but Miami of Ohio would have a real shot if they don't win the MAC based on their volume of wins and WAB. On the outside, however, it's a lot of high-majors. In addition, just three at-large bids are projected to go to teams outside the Power 5 leagues (those two and 8-seed Saint Mary's). The power conference takeover is here, and the days of 4-5 bids from leagues like the Mountain West and Atlantic 10, even with the Pac-12 (temporarily) dissolved, seem to be a thing of the past.

Here's the Seed List and Bracket:

Multibid Leagues

ACC: 10

SEC: 10

Big 10: 8

Big 12: 7

Big East: 4

Atlantic 10: 2

Mountain West: 2

WCC: 2

Maybe we bounced off the bottom?

 We're back with another #mubb podcast and you'll find that we aren't quite as depressed as before. We review the teams performance in a nailbiting win against Xavier that shouldn't have been nailbiting and a nailbiting loss to Nova which we were surprised was so close. We talk about this teams lack of clutch and transitioning to players who have more upside as young players than others who've started or gotten extended run the last two months. We then celebrate a fun memory in #mubb history that is very much part of the visual media that a podcast isn't. Then we turn to the week ahead and while we don't think winning in the Garden is possible, this team could put up some fight against DePaul, which would be nice. Enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/4g5h59eyk42b3d36/2026_Jan_12_Less_Crappyaefu3.mp3

 

Still doomy but slightly less so

Hey all, new year same #mubb. Team still struggles offensively and can't lock down defensively when they need it but generally speaking the play has been better the last week. We talk about mostly, the Seton Hall game from this past week to frame the team performance. We then talk about #mubb memories past and close out on one of the last few hopes to break the losing steak, playing Xavier at home. Enjoy!

 

https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/mjz23xd5s4r2uzkb/2026_Jan_4_still_suck834dv.mp3