MU in H. Ellenson's Final 3, Crystal Ball/Value Add Composite Projects MU 4th in BE in 2016

The 247 Crystal ball was already predicting that Marquette would land both Henry Ellenson and Haanif Cheatham for the 2015-16 season prior last night's announcement that Ellenson is down to Kentucky, Michigan State and Marquette. If that plays out, the following table gives the updated Value Add for each Marquette player, while every other team has been updated in the same way on the google sheet for the Value Add scholarship page

Name	2014	2015	Rnk	2016	Rnk	2016 Class	Ht	NBA	%
Ellenson, Henry	NA	NA		4.90	189	0 Prep	6'10"		TBD
Burton, Deonte	1.66	3.36	336	4.40	267	2 So	6'4"	SG	36%
Wilson, Duane	RS	1.80	654	3.70	313	1 Fr	6'2"
Johnson, JaJuan	0.30	2.98	407	2.98	402	2 So	6'5"	SG	30%
Cohen, Sandy	NA	1.13	872	2.28	528	1 Fr	6'5"
Cheatham, Haanif	NA	NA		1.41	719	0 Prep	6'5"
Noskowiak, Nick	NA	NA		1.20	806	0 Prep	6'2"
Levin, Gabe	0.57	Trans		1.15	830	2 So	6'7"
Fischer, Luke	0.36	0.72	1121	0.94	907	2 So	6'11"
Heldt, Matt	not yet	not yet		0.30		0 Prep	6'10"
Taylor, Steve	0.08	0.10	1925	0.12	1790	3 Jr	6'7"
Dawson, John	0.00	0.00	9999	0.00		2 So	6'2"
Ellenson, Wally	0.00	not yet		0.00		3 Jr	6'10"
Carlino, Matt	2.60	3.07	388			4 Sr	6'2"
Anderson, Juan	1.10	1.30	804			4 Sr	6'6"
Wilson, Derrick	0.00	0.00	9999			4 Sr	6'1"
Gardner, Davante	4.75	Grad				5 Gone	6'8"
Otule, Chris	0.41	Grad				5 Gone	6'11"
Thomas, Jake	0.77	Grad				5 Gone	6'3"
Wilson, Jamil	1.47	Grad				5 Gone	6'7"
Mayo, Todd	1.82	Draft				5 Gone	6'3"

After entering every Crystal ball prediction and then running the table for each team, Marquette projects to improve from 101st last year to 89th this season to 38th in 2015-16 - one of the biggest jumps in the country. In the Big East, only Georgetown, Xavier and Villanova project to be in better shape in 2016 - projecting a 4th place conference finish. Marquette is given better than a 70% chance of landing Henry Ellenson, who would project to nudge Burton out as MU's best player in 2015-16, and a 60% chance of landing Haanif Cheatham, who is en route to campus.

The following would be the top 25 teams and the ranking of each Big East team assuming Crystal Ball predictions and Value Add projections.

Team	2015 Conf	2014	2015	2016
Kentucky	SEC	8	3	1
Arizona	P12	2	4	2
Duke	ACC	5	2	3
Kansas	B12	9	1	4
North Carolina	ACC	26	6	5
Florida	SEC	4	8	6
Louisville	ACC	1	5	7
Connecticut	Amer	3	14	8
Virginia	ACC	24	9	9
Syracuse	ACC	10	11	10
Michigan St.	B10	16	38	11
Baylor	B12	20	23	12
UCLA	P12	17	21	13
Florida St.	ACC	30	22	14
Memphis	Amer	39	32	15
Texas	B12	67	10	16
Missouri	SEC	63	44	17
Georgetown	BE	69	31	18
Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	84	28	19
Louisiana St.	SEC	66	50	20
Michigan	B10	6	24	21
Arkansas	SEC	21	20	22
Indiana	B10	89	26	23
Southern Methodist	Amer	33	15	24
North Carolina St.	ACC	51	33	25
Xavier	BE	81	64	29
Villanova	BE	22	13	30
Marquette	BE	101	89	38
St. John's	BE	76	46	45
Providence	BE	54	37	49
Seton Hall	BE	110	85	52
Butler	BE	147	51	82
Creighton	BE	27	126	127
DePaul	BE	150	150	142

Fox Sports Latest of Top 10 Sports Sites to give Value Add Great Coverage (formatting fixed)

Fox Sports did a nice piece on Value Add yesterday that has resulted in 1,100 Facebook Shares so far. It was a lot more fun when NBC Sports picked up on it back when Jae Crowder was rising toward the top of the rankings. Still, assuming Cracked Sidewalks and MU Scoop both have about 17.99 million unique visitors a month (just a guess, but I’m sure it must be accurate ;-) ), that would mean over half of the top 10 sports sites have had good coverage of the Value Add system that started here. Here is the rundown of the top 10 sites.

(9-10 tied) Cracked Sidewalks and MU Scoop – I believe about 17.99 million visitors a month J - and many articles over the years and lively discussions to let me vet the system before it went national.

8. Fox Sports 18 million – Reid Forgrave wrote the great story yesterday that has produced 1,100 Facebook Shares so far

7. SB Nation 19 million – no Value Add coverage

6. NBC Sports 19.5 million – great reporter Rob Dauster did a follow-up this morning, and did one of the key stories when Crowder was enroute to being the No. 2 player, in which he took note of my surprise ranking of a little sophomore guard  named Shabazz Napier who was ranked No. 11 already by Value Add.

5. Sports Illustrated 20 million – The stat guru Luke Winn gave the ultimate boost to Value Add with the first big piece, which ultimately led to many a meeting and phone call with NBA team officials. It came with a price – a Badger was No. 1 in my offensive rankings when he contacted me.

4. CBS Sports 30 million – I believe they had tweeted out some Value Add updates, but can’t find them to prove it.

3. Bleacher Report 40 million – no Value Add coverage

2. ESPN 80 million – Eamonn Brennan was very complementary, and also noted my projection on a rising sophomore Otto Porter – who I had projected jumping from relatively unknown to the top player in the Big East, which he did.

1.       Yahoo Sports 125 million – no Value Add coverage

(ratings on website traffic can be found here , except for my Cracked Sidewalks and MU Scoop estimates) 

Anyway, thanks all for reading over the years – even those most critical helped me test these ratings out and make adjustments before they went to these national sites.

1st Losing Season Since 1999 Possible Under Projection

Marquette projects to go 15-17 overall, 6-12 in the Big East, and be eliminated in the first round of the CIT (that's the tournament below the NIT, but better than the CBI). This would give MU its first losing season since Mike Deane went 14-15 in 1999 after fMU has six straight 20-win seasons.

If that happens, MU fans should remember the losing season before that - when many fans booed a young MU team that went 11-18 in 1991 in another coach's first season (Kevin O'Neill). That team went onto go to the Sweet 16 once the freshman had become seniors.

This may come as a shock to many of our fans - as we were all thankfully spoiled as one of less than a half dozen teams to go to the Sweet 16 three years in a row. I ran into a number of Marquette fans in the lobby of my hotel the morning after MU was eliminated from the Big East tournament, and was stunned the main discussion was who MU would host in the first round of the NIT. It was very evident to me that MU was NOT good enough to make the 32-team NIT field, and this year could be even worse.

The fact is I expect MU to exceed the projected value with a realistic shot at the NIT and an outside shot at the NCAA.

Going purely be the Value Add of the top five players for MU and all of the opponents and adjusting for home court, MU has five narrow wins and five narrow losses in a 15-17 season - meaning that if Steve Taylor is fully recovered, John Dawson plays anywhere close to how he played in three great performances last year, and Derrick Wilson can just add marginal offense to his great defense, MU's Value Add would improve enough to turn those five close losses into wins to go 20-13 including an NIT bid.

I believe an NCAA bid is really a reach this year even with players stepping up, but I thought 2010 would be even tougher and Lazar Hayward and Jimmy Butler went to new heights to get what of our most stunning bids - so let's hope for more of the same. Hopefully Buzz's mind was just elsewhere last year, and Wojo is taking the kids to new heights on the court. Here is how the season plays out by pure Value Add:

START 3-1
If MU somehow wins in Ohio State or even stays within single digits, then Wojo has this team ready to far exceed the Value Add projections. More likely that is a bad loss, while Tennessee Martin, Nebraska Omaha and the country's only remaining independent (NJIT) are easy wins to make MU 3-1.

OLD SPICE IN ORLANDO 1-2
It looks very likely that Marquette goes 1-2 over the Thanksgiving weekend. MU has a slight edge over Georgia Tech in the opener, so a win there would be important. MU likely is 1-1 after two games, because a win over Georgia Tech would likely lead to getting beaten badly by Michigan State the next night, while a loss to Georgia Tech likely gives MU an easy win over Rider the next night to even it up.

The big game will likely be on Sunday. MU projects a little lower than potential opponents Rhode Island, Santa Clara and Tennessee, and if some combination of Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are playing above projections, then MU will have it's first realistic chance for a big win away from home to leave the tournament 2-1. If MU wins the first two games, then the likely opponent is Kansas, which projects No. 1 in Value Add and would be very tough ask. So a 2-1 trip from Orlando - however we get it - could be a huge breakthrough pointing to a much better than projected season.

Rest of non-conference 4-1

An upset of Wisconsin would be very unlikely December 6, so a 4-4 mark would be "par" coming out of the rivalry game. The Bradley Center would give MU a slight edge against Arizona State, so that is a huge must-win - and could let MU get to the end of non-conference play with an 8-4 mark, since MU's easiest three opponents (Alabama A&M, North Dakota and Morgan State) close out the calendar year.

Conference regular season 6-12, one win in tourney

If MU is a few points better than projections, then they can flip projected narrow losses at Seton Hall and at home against Butler, Providence and St. John's to go 10-8 in Big East play.

With a 6-12 mark, MU would project to be the 8-seed in the Big East tournament and potentially beat projected 9-seed Creighton before losing to top-seeded Villanova.

Potential bids

If MU comes out of the Big East tournament with a 15-16 record, they would still merit a bid from the CIT tournament as their last selection - under the hypothetical scenario that each team's Value Add is right, the NCAA takes the best players they can after their automatic bids, the NIT does the same, then the CIT picks the next 16 and the CBI takes the final 16. Obviously all of this is unrealistic, but for arguments sake,:

a. that would leave MU facing the overall No. 1 seed in the CIT tournament - Oklahoma State - and MU would be projected to lose that game and finish 15-17

b. ironically if MU finished just lower, they would hypothetically be the best team in the CBI and have a better chance to add at least a couple of wins and have a winning record.

c. if Taylor, Dawson and Derrick Wilson are joining the others in contributing to turn those five close losses into projected wins, then MU could enter the Big East tournament 10-8, 19-11 and be in solid shape for an NIT bid with an outside shot at the NCAA. The only problem with that scenario is that it likely gets MU out of the opening round Big East tournament games, meaning they might have to beat a 3-seed (Providence) to claim a crucial 20th win for the resume to wrap up an NIT bid or even make the case for the NCAA.

The game-by-game schedule below gives MU a "W" for a likely win, a "W?" for a narrow win under the Value Add projections for each player, a (W) for a possible game against Rider that MU would play if they do not get Michigan State in the 2nd round in Orlando.

The same is true of all variations of "L," as these project as losses but the five "L?" are the key narrow loss projections that would be most likely to flip to wins if MU is a little better than projections.

For each team, we indicate the Value Add of their top five players as well as their overall team, their conference, and their likely post season bid if they also match their projections and all their opponents do the same.

We do not want these projections to be correct - but we want to establish "par" early so we can determine if Marquette is exceeding expectations as the games play out.

Res	Date	Ven	Rnk	Team	Top5 VA	Conf	Tot VA	Tourney	Seed
15-17	Non-Conf		88	Marquette	12.51	BE	14.46	CIT	4-seed
W	11/14/2014		247	Tennessee Martin	3.05	OVC	3.05	no bid
L	11/18/2014	at	29	Ohio St.	21.47	B10	28.74	NCAA	8-seed
W	11/22/2014		197	Nebraska Omaha	4.6	Sum	4.6	no bid
W	11/24/2014		182	NJIT	5.15	ind	5.15	no bid
	Old Spice			in Orlando
W?	11/27/2014	vs	114	Georgia Tech	9.51	ACC	9.61	no bid
L	11/28/2014	vs	36	Michigan St.	19.2	B10	22.98	NCAA	9-seed
(W)	11/28/2014	vs	175	Rider	5.34	MAAC	5.34	no bid
(L)	11/30/2014		1	Kansas	34.44	B12	60.6	NCAA	1-seed
(L?)	11/30/2014		76	Rhode Island	13.45	A10	14.43	CIT	2-seed
(L?)	11/30/2014	vs	67	Santa Clara	14.48	WCC	14.9	NIT	4-seed
L?	11/30/2014		62	Tennessee	15.28	SEC	18.46	NIT	3-seed
	Non-Conf
L	12/6/2014		7	Wisconsin	31.15	B10	34.77	NCAA	2-seed
W?	12/16/2014		72	Arizona St.	13.85	P12	17.27	CIT	1-seed
W	12/19/2014		342	Alabama A&M	0.16	SWAC	0.16	no bid
W	12/22/2014		345	North Dakota	0.02	BSky	0.02	no bid
W	12/28/2014		290	Morgan St.	1.71	MEAC	1.71	no bid
	BE Season 6-12
L	1/1/2015	at	50	Butler	17.46	BE	18.68	NCAA	12-playin
L?	1/1/2015		50	Butler	17.46	BE	18.68	NCAA	12-playin
W?	1/1/2015	at	123	Creighton	8.84	BE	11.17	no bid
W	1/1/2015		123	Creighton	8.84	BE	11.17	no bid
W	1/1/2015	at	195	DePaul	4.6	BE	6.07	no bid
W	1/1/2015		195	DePaul	4.6	BE	6.07	no bid
L	1/1/2015	at	31	Georgetown	20.84	BE	28.81	NCAA	8-seed
L	1/1/2015		31	Georgetown	20.84	BE	28.81	NCAA	8-seed
L	1/1/2015	at	35	Providence	19.31	BE	22.68	NCAA	9-seed
L?	1/1/2015		35	Providence	19.31	BE	22.68	NCAA	9-seed
L?	1/1/2015	at	84	Seton Hall	12.78	BE	15.44	CIT	4-seed
W?	1/1/2015		84	Seton Hall	12.78	BE	15.44	CIT	4-seed
L	1/1/2015	at	45	St. John's	18.33	BE	19.14	NCAA	12-seed
L?	1/1/2015		45	St. John's	18.33	BE	19.14	NCAA	12-seed
L	1/1/2015	at	13	Villanova	26.56	BE	31.26	NCAA	4-seed
L	1/1/2015		13	Villanova	26.56	BE	31.26	NCAA	4-seed
L	1/1/2015	at	63	Xavier	15.23	BE	21.78	NIT	3-seed
W?	1/1/2015		63	Xavier	15.23	BE	21.78	NIT	3-seed
	BE Tourney
W	3/11/2015	9	123	Creighton (9-seed)	8.84	BE	11.17	no bid
L	3/12/2015	1	13	Villanova (1-seed)	26.56	BE	31.26	NCAA	4-seed
	CIT Tourney
L	3/17/2015		68	Oklahoma St.	14.41	B12	16.01	CIT	1-seed

Big East Player Projections Updated with Duane Wilson & Other Red Shirts

The Value Add Scholarship Table (review or edit google sheet here) continues to be built, with the addition of key Red Shirt freshman like Duane Wilson. I am posting the updated Big East players here, and a second post will give the projected result of every MU game, to follow-up on the discussion from my recent post (see it here, sorry I checked out on business prior to the discussion and did not see the responses until today).

A couple of notes on our players in response to questions:

1. Some questioned how some of our guys can have 0.00 value, and please note that a 0.00 Value Add means you are not better than a good bench player (8th or 9th man) on a major conference team. Those players have value, they just are not better than the typical replacement player who would come off the bench for them.

2. Why wasn't Duane Wilson listed in the previous post since he certainly adds value? I have to keep Value Add apples-to-apples, and since I did not have a good list of red shirt freshmen from last season, I couldn't simply add Wilson for Marquette until I was able to put together a comprehensive lists for all teams in the country.

3. How could the John Dawson we saw DOMINATE Georgetown have a 0.00 Value Add? Dawson not only won the Georgetown game for MU, but you could argue we would have lost to DePaul at the end of February without him, and he gave MU almost enough to upset Providence in March.Value Add is just a baseline to start a discussion, and if we saw an opposing player with a very low offensive rating of 84 who had very few steals on defense he would be nowhere near having value and so I can't subjectively give a player I've watch more like Dawson a higher rating, even though I have faith in him.

4 Can Marquette exceed these ratings? Definitely - we have seen enough of Steve Taylor's post game to know that if he is finally healthy he should be much better than a 0.10 Value Add, and as good as Derrick Wilson's defense is he can also have value if the 25,000 shots he took in the offseason makes him just an average offensive player - so the potential for both of them as well as Luke Fischer performing well above their projections could create a nice team around Deonte Burton and Matt Carlino and other likely contributors.

Here are the projections for all Big East players.

2015	Name	2015 Value	Rnk	Class	Ht	NBA	%	2016	Value	Rnk	2014	Value
MU	Anderson, Juan	1.30	797	4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			MU	1.1
MU	Burton, Deonte	3.36	333	2 So	6'4"	SG	36%	MU	4.4	184	MU	1.66
MU	Carlino, Matt	3.07	384	4 Sr	6'2"			Grad			BYU	2.6
MU	Cohen, Sandy	1.13	859	1 Fr	6'5"			MU	2.28	430	Prep	NA
MU	Dawson, John	0.00		2 So	6'2"			MU	0		MU	0
MU	Fischer, Luke	0.72	1103	2 So	6'11"			MU	0.94	830	Ind	0.36
MU	Gardner, Davante	Grad		5 Gone	6'8"			Grad			MU	4.75
MU	Johnson, JaJuan	2.98	405	2 So	6'5"	SG	30%	MU	2.98	905	MU	0.3
MU	Mayo, Todd	Draft		4 Sr	6'3"			Grad			MU	1.82
MU	Otule, Chris	Grad		5 Gone	6'11"			Grad			MU	0.41
MU	Taylor, Steve	0.10	1939	3 Jr	6'7"			MU	0.12		MU	0.08
MU	Thomas, Jake	Grad		5 Gone	6'3"			Grad			MU	0.77
MU	Wilson, Derrick	0.00		4 Sr	6'1"			Grad			MU	0
MU	Wilson, Duane	1.80	648	1 Fr	6'2"			2 So	3.7		MU	RS
MU	Wilson, Jamil	Grad		5 Gone	6'7"			Grad			MU	1.47
MU	zzTeam total = 14.46	Top 5 = 12.51	88
Butl	Aldridge, Jackson	0		4 Sr	6'0			Grad			Butl	0
Butl	Barlow, Alex	3.71	293	4 Sr	5'11"			Grad			Butl	3.15
Butl	Brown, Elijah	Trans		2 So	6'4"			Available	0		Butl	0
Butl	Chrabascz, Andrew	4.18	251	2 So	6'7"			Butl	5.47	124	Butl	2.07
Butl	Davis, Jackson	0.2	1831	1 Fr	6'8"			Butl	0.4		Prep	NA
Butl	Dunham, Kellen	5.06	149	3 Jr	6'6"	SG	71%	Butl	5.06	724	Butl	0.77
Butl	Etherington, Austin	0		3 Jr	6'6"			Butl	0		Ind	0
Butl	Jones, Roosevelt	2.78	438	3 Jr	6'4"						2013	2.12
Butl	Marshall, Khyle	Grad		5 Gone	6'6"			Grad			Butl	1.15
Butl	Martin, Kelan	0.72	1102	1 Fr	6'5"			Butl	1.45	608	Prep	NA
Butl	Wideman, Tyler	0.3	1550	1 Fr	6'6"			Butl	0.61		Prep	NA
Butl	Woods, Kameron	1.73	663	4 Sr	6'9"			Grad			Butl	1.47
Butl	zzTeam total = 18.68	Top 5 = 17.46	50
Crei	Artino, Will	2.03	580	4 Sr	6'11"			Grad			Crei	1.72
Crei	Brooks, Devin	2.6	462	4 Sr	6'2"	PG	8%	Grad			Crei	2.2
Crei	Chatman, Austin	2.03	581	4 Sr	6'0			Grad			Crei	1.72
Crei	Dingman, Avery	0.44	1404	4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			Crei	0.38
Crei	Gibbs, Grant	Grad		5 Gone	6'5"			Grad			Crei	1.38
Crei	Gilmore, Leon	0.77	1072	1 Fr	6'7"			Crei	1.56	578	Prep	NA
Crei	Harrell, Ronnie	1.26	806	1 Fr	6'8"			Crei	2.55	387	Prep	NA
Crei	Henger, Toby	0.3	1558	1 Fr							Crei	RS
Crei	Kreklow, Ricky	0.32	1518	4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			Cal	0.28
Crei	Manigat, Jahenns	Grad		5 Gone	6'1"			Grad			Crei	3.01
Crei	McDermott, Doug	Grad		5 Gone	6'8"			Grad			Crei	9.4
Crei	Milliken, James	0.5	1295	3 Jr							JUCO
Crei	Wragge, Ethan	Grad		5 Gone	6'7"			Grad			Crei	3.16
Crei	Zierden, Isaiah	0.92	989	2 So	6'2"			Crei	1.21	714	Crei	0.46
Crei	zzTeam total = 11.17	Top 5 = 8.84	123
DeP	Crockett, Jamee	0		4 Sr	6'4"			Grad			DeP	0
DeP	Curington, RJ	0.12	1917	2 So	6'4"			DeP	0.15		DeP	0.06
DeP	Doby, Raymond	0.35	1489	1 Fr	6'7"			DeP	0.71	944	Prep	NA
DeP	Garrett, Billy	1.7	672	2 So	6'5"			DeP	2.23	442	DeP	0.84
DeP	Hamilton, Tommy	0		2 So	6'10"			DeP	0		DeP	0
DeP	Henry, Myke	0.88	1009	3 Jr	6'6"			DeP	1.04	787	2013Ill	0.67
DeP	Marcius, Sandi	Grad		5 Gone	6'10"			Grad			DeP	0.33
DeP	Marrero, DeJuan	0		2 So	6'5"			DeP	0		DeP	0
DeP	McDonald, Durrell	0.42	1421	3 Jr	6'1"			DeP	0.5		DeP	0.32
DeP	McKinney, Charles	0.22	1815	4 Sr	6'3"			Grad			DeP	0.19
DeP	Melvin, Cleveland	Grad		5 Gone	6'8"			Grad			DeP	1.61
DeP	Robinson, Forrest	0.38	1468	4 Sr	6'10"			Grad			DeP	0.33
DeP	Ryckbosch, Peter	0		3 Jr	6'9"			DeP	0		DeP	0
DeP	Sequele, Greg	0.1	1944	4 Sr	6'9"			Grad			DeP	0.09
DeP	Simpson, Aaron	1.1	876	3 Jr							JUCO
DeP	Stimage, Rashaun	0.5	1296	3 Jr	6'8"			DeP	0.59		JUCO	NA
DeP	Wood, Darrick	0.3	1564	1 Fr	6'4"			DeP	0.61		Prep	NA
DeP	Young, Brandon	Grad		5 Gone	6'4"			Grad			DeP	1.31
DeP	zzTeam total = 6.07	Top 5 = 4.6	197
Gtown	Ayegba, Moses	Grad		5 Gone	6'9"			Grad			Gtown	0.25
Gtown	Cameron, Reggie	2.81	431	2 So	6'7"	PF	26%	Gtown	2.81		Gtown	0.12
Gtown	Campbell, Tre	0.85	1023	1 Fr	6'1"			Gtown	1.72	544	Prep	NA
Gtown	Copeland, Isaac	4.3	240	1 Fr	6'9"			Gtown	6.8	68	Prep	NA
Gtown	Derrickson, Marcus	not yet		Prep	6'7"			Gtown	1.3	677	Prep	NA
Gtown	Govan, Jessie	3	394	1 Fr	6'10"			Available	5.5	393	Prep	NA
Gtown	Hopkins, Mikael	1.72	668	4 Sr	6'9"	PF	4%	Grad			Gtown	1.1
Gtown	Lubick, Nate	Grad		5 Gone	6'8"			Grad			Gtown	1.63
Gtown	Mourning, Trey	0.3	1579	1 Fr	6'9"			Gtown	0.61		Prep	NA
Gtown	Peak, LJ	1.42	756	1 Fr	6'4"			Gtown	2.87	329	Prep	NA
Gtown	Rivera, D'Vauntes	8.58	13	3 Jr	6'3"	SG	68%	Gtown	10.13	11	Gtown	6.55
Gtown	Smith, Joshua	2.15	547	4 Sr	6'10"	C	13%	Grad			Gtown	1.44
Gtown	Starks, Markel	Grad		5 Gone	6'2"			Grad			Gtown	2.25
Gtown	Trawick, Jabril	2.08	567	4 Sr	6'5"			Grad			Gtown	1.76
Gtown	White, Paul	1.6	701	1 Fr	6'8"			Gtown	3.23	275	Prep	NA
Gtown	zzTeam total = 28.81	Top 5 = 20.84	32
Prov	Bancroft, Ted	Grad		5 Gone	6'6"			Grad			Prov	0.02
Prov	Batts, Kadeem	Grad		5 Gone	6'9"			Grad			Prov	1.38
Prov	Bentil, Ben	1.21	832	1 Fr	6'8"			Prov	2.44	404	Prep	NA
Prov	Bullock, Rodney	0.5	1271	1 Fr							Prov	susp
Prov	Cartwright, Kyron	0.25	1783	1 Fr	5'10"			Prov	0.51		Prep	NA
Prov	Chukwu, Paschal	1.49	731	1 Fr	7'2"			Prov	3.01	309	Prep	NA
Prov	Cotton, Bryce	Grad		5 Gone	6'1"			Grad			Prov	6.52
Prov	Desrosiers, Carson	2.3	515	4 Sr	7'0			Grad			Prov	1.95
Prov	Dunn, Kris	5.05	151	3 Jr	6' 3"	PG	71%	Prov	5.05		Prov	inj
Prov	Fortune, Josh	Trans		3 Jr	6'5"			Available	0.57		Prov	0.44
Prov	Harris, Tyler	4.95	163	3 Jr	6'9"	SF	69%	Prov	4.95	558	Prov	1.06
Prov	Henton, LaDontae	5.52	103	4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			Prov	4.68
Prov	Jackson, William	not yet		Prep	6'4"			Georgia	1.04	788	Prep	NA
Prov	Lindsey, Jalen	1.41	761	1 Fr	6'6"			Prov	2.85	333	Prep	NA
Prov	Lomomba, Junior	0		2 So	6'5"						2013CleSt	0
Prov	Owens, Alex	not yet		Prep	6'8"			Prov	1.03	793	Prep	NA
Prov	zzTeam total = 22.68	Top 5 = 19.31	35
SH	Ajou, Chier	0		1 Fr							2013NW	rs
SH	Anthony, Rashad	0		1 Fr							SH	rs
SH	Auda, Patrik	1.84	640	4 Sr	6'9"			Grad			SH	1.56
SH	Carrington, Khadeen	0.84	1025	1 Fr	6'3"			SH	1.7	547	Prep	NA
SH	Delgado, Angel	1.57	714	1 Fr	6'8"			SH	3.17	290	Prep	NA
SH	Edwin, Fuquan	Grad		5 Gone	6'6"			Grad			SH	2.49
SH	Geramipoor, Aaron	Grad		5 Gone	6'11"			Grad			SH	0.45
SH	Gibbs, Sterling	2.83	429	3 Jr	6'2"			SH	3.33	267	SH	2.16
SH	Karlis, Haralds	0		4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			SH	0
SH	Maayan, Tom	0		3 Jr	6'2"			SH	0		SH	0
SH	Manga, Stephane	0		4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			SH	0
SH	Mobley, Brandon	0.46	1388	4 Sr	6'9"			Grad			SH	0.39
SH	Nzei, Michael	0.4	1439	1 Fr	6'7"			SH	0.81	894	Prep	NA
SH	Oleka, Obinna	0.3	1678	1 Fr	6'8"			SH	0.61		Prep	NA
SH	Oliver, Brian	Grad		5 Gone	6'7"			Grad			SH	0.93
SH	Rodriguez, Desi	0.6	1191	1 Fr	6'5"			SH	1.21	712	Prep	NA
SH	Sanogo, Ismael	0.4	1440	1 Fr	6'6"			SH	0.81	893	Prep	NA
SH	Sina, Jaren	0.5	1272	2 So	6'2"			SH	0.66	978	SH	0.25
SH	Teague, Gene	Grad		5 Gone	6'9"			Grad			SH	2.73
SH	Whitehead, Isaiah	5.7	83	1 Fr	6'4"			SH	7.5	47	Prep	NA
SH	zzTeam total = 15.44	Top 5 = 12.78	84
StJ	Achiuwa, God'sgift	Grad		5 Gone	6'8"			Grad			StJ	0.75
StJ	Alblegovic, Amar	0		1 Fr							Prep
StJ	Branch, Jamal	0.07	1995	4 Sr	6'3"			Grad			StJ	0.06
StJ	DelaRosa, Adonis	0.15	1880	1 Fr	6'11"			StJ	0.3		Prep	NA
StJ	Greene, Phil	0.59	1207	4 Sr	6'2"			Grad			StJ	0.5
StJ	Harrison, D'Angelo	5.5	109	4 Sr	6'4"			Grad			StJ	4.66
StJ	Jordan, Rysheed	3.38	330	2 So	6'4"	PG	38%	StJ	3.38		StJ	0.1
StJ	Obekpa, Chris	5.25	132	3 Jr	6'9"	PF/C	75%	StJ	5.25	234	StJ	2.47
StJ	Pointer, Sir'Dominic	2.5	478	4 Sr	6'5"			Grad			StJ	2.12
StJ	Sampson, JaKarr	Draft		3 Jr	6'9"			Nba			StJ	1.29
StJ	Sanchez, Orlando	Grad		5 Gone	6'9"			Grad			StJ	2.73
StJ	Thomas, Keith	1.7	674	3 Jr							JUCO
StJ	zzTeam total = 19.14	Top 5 = 18.33	46
Vill	Arcidiacono, Ryan	4.84	181	3 Jr	6'3"	PG	67%	Vill	4.84	223	Vill	2.55
Vill	Barefield, Sedrick	not yet		Prep	6'2"			SMU	1.12	761	Prep	NA
Vill	Bell, James	Grad		5 Gone	6'6"			Grad			Vill	5.21
Vill	Booth, Phil	1.25	813	1 Fr	6'3"			Vill	2.53	390	Prep	NA
Vill	Bridges, Mikal	1.15	851	1 Fr	6'6"			Vill	2.32	425	Prep	NA
Vill	Chennault, Tony	Grad		5 Gone	6'2"			Grad			Vill	1.21
Vill	Ennis, Dylan	0.6	1195	3 Jr	6'2"			Vill	0.7	946	Vill	0.46
Vill	Hart, Josh	5.84	74	2 So	6'5"	SG	30%	Vill	7.66	43	Vill	3.34
Vill	Hilliard, Darrun	5.05	152	4 Sr	6'6"			Grad			Vill	4.28
Vill	Jenkins, Kris	1.7	673	2 So	6'6"			Vill	2.23	441	Vill	0.84
Vill	Ochefu, Daniel	4.91	168	3 Jr	6'11"	C	68%	Vill	4.91	243	Vill	2.38
Vill	Pinkston, JayVaughn	5.92	68	4 Sr	6'7"	PF	7%	Grad			Vill	5.02
Vill	zzTeam total = 31.26	Top 5 = 26.56	13
Xav	Abell, Remy	1.9	623	3 Jr	6'4"			Xav	2.24	440	2013Ind	1.45
Xav	Austin, Larry	0.94	975	1 Fr	6'1"			Xav	1.9	504	Prep	NA
Xav	Bluiett, Trevon	3.2	357	1 Fr	6'5"			Xav	5.7	113	Prep	NA
Xav	Christon, Semaj	Draft		3 Jr	6'3"			Nba			Xav	2.9
Xav	Davis, Dee	1.15	855	4 Sr	6'0			Grad			Xav	0.98
Xav	Davis, Myles	0.6	1194	2 So	6'2"			Xav	0.78	914	Xav	0.29
Xav	Farr, James	3.05	389	3 Jr	6'9"			Xav	3.6	247	Xav	2.33
Xav	London, Makinde	1.27	805	1 Fr	6'8"			Xav	2.57	385	Prep	NA
Xav	Macura, JP	1.06	903	1 Fr	6'4"			Xav	2.14	463	Prep	NA
Xav	O'Mara, Sean	0.73	1098	1 Fr	6'9"			Xav	1.47	601	Prep	NA
Xav	Philmore, Isaiah	Grad		5 Gone	6'8"			Grad			Xav	1.18
Xav	Randolph, Brandon	0		2 So	6'1"			Xav	0		Xav	0
Xav	Reynolds, Jalen	2.15	546	2 So	6'9"			Xav	2.81	337	Xav	1.06
Xav	Stainbrook, Matt	4.93	167	4 Sr	6'10"			Grad			Xav	4.18
Xav	Sumner, Edmond	0.8	1057	1 Fr	6'3"			Xav	1.62	566	Prep	NA
Xav	zzTeam total = 21.78	Top 5 = 15.23	63

Value Add projects MU 93rd; Burton 36% chance at NBA

I have put the entire database of Value Add projections into a Google Doc that you can open and even edit by clicking here. The database includes 4250 players listed alphabetically by team and then last name, and you can enter edits for missed players, etc.

Focusing purely on the Value Add's in the Big East, the picture would appear pretty bleak. Marquette had the 101st best Value Add in the country last year and 7th best in the conference. The projections give Marquette the 93rd best Value Add this season (ahead of only DePaul) and Creighton) and then 94th next season (ahead of St. John's, DePaul and Creighton). One note is that Creighton always ends up being projected too low for some reason.

Before I throw up a white flag I should note that the Value Add projections are just an estimate based on the average improvement each player has between seasons, and in fact individual improvement varies wildly when you are talking about college kids. From a purely statistical perspective, things looked every bit as bad heading into 2010, and suddenly Marquette was in the tournament.

The other good news is the players considering Marquette - for example, a signing of Diamond Stone alone would propel Marquette to 5th in the Big East and 60th in the country for 2016.

The other nice news is that the database now includes a percent chance of each player making the NBA, and Deonte Burton is now up to a 36% chance, so hopefully MU can keep the pipeline going. Here is the team table for Big East members:

Team	Conf	2014	Rnk	2015	Rnk	2016	Rnk
Villanova	BE	25.98	22	31.27	16	24.17	25
Georgetown	BE	15.82	69	25.82	28	25.66	20
Providence	BE	17.50	54	22.68	40	11.48	71
Xavier	BE	14.63	81	21.78	44	24.83	23
St. John's	BE	15.15	76	19.14	51	4.39
Butler	BE	9.28	147	18.68	55	9.12	86
Seton Hall	BE	11.40	110	14.74	78	19.80	38
Marquette	BE	12.36	101	12.66	93	8.54	94
Creighton	BE	24.47	27	11.18	108	5.31	143
DePaul	BE	5.59		6.08		5.82	133

Gtown, Xavier and Seton Hall Freshmen Dominant; Carlino Leads MU Newcomers

Freshman from Seton Hall, Xavier and Georgetown are among the most valuable in the country - with each class likely to improve their team's scoring margin by 8 points or more per game. Marquette's Sandy Cohen projects as a strong contributor, and if he was combined with Luke Fischer, Duane Wilson and Matt Carlino then MU's "newcomers" would project to be almost as valuable as the big three classes.

Even before Todd Mayo left, Value Add projected sophomore Deonte Burton (3.35 projected Value Add) and senior transfer Carlino (3.10) to easily be Marquette's best two players this season.

The table of all Big East freshman appears at the end of this post.

Value Add, the system that measures the overall impact each player has on his team's scoring margin on an average night, projects that Isaiah Whitehead will be the most valuable freshman in the league by increasing Seton Hall's scoring margin by 5.00 points per game. Five other freshman combine with Whitehead to give their freshman class an overall rating of 8.71 for the best mark in the conference.

Isaac Copeland projects as the second best Big East freshman with a projected Value Add of 4.30, and the four other freshman Hoyas also rank Georgetown in second as a team - just behind Seton Hall at 8.47.

Trevon Bluiett is the third best freshman at 3.20, and five other freshman combine to give Xavier a very strong 8.00.

None of the other seven Big East freshman classes are anywhere close, with a solid trio at Providence giving the Friars a fourth best 4.36, but nowhere near the three dominant leaders.

The class after a coach leaves is normally decimated, but Sandy Cohen gives Marquette one freshman likely to contribute the first year with a 1.13 Value Add. Historically 3-star and better recruits make at least a small contribution (about 0.3 for the average 3-star). While one player cannot make a class, other players who will get on the court for the first time this season make for what would be a very solid class if they were all freshman.

Matt Carlino will take the court immediately after transferring from BYU. An exhaustive study of the entire Value Add database from Dwyane Wade's last season through last year shows that a player improves an average of 18% between his junior and senior season. That would point to a very strong Value Add of 3.1 for Carlino this season. Here is the chart of the average improvement from class to class based on 2629 players in the Value Add database who played all four seasons at the same school.

Study of 2629 players	Ave Value Add	Projected improvement
Freshman	0.67	102%
Sophomore	1.35	31%
Junior	1.76	18%
Senior	2.09	0%

So the average freshman more than doubles his value before his sophomore season, but the improvement is much smaller during the next two offseasons.

Duane Wilson missed all of last season with an injury, but was projected to have a 1.6 Value Add out of high school, and Luke Fischer will join after the first semester and projected to have a 1.2 Value Add. If we cheat and include these three along with Cohen, we get a Marquette class just one point behind the three big freshman classes with a 7.03 Value Add.

Obviously others could do the same. Darrick Wood was supposed to have a 1.1 Value Add when he committed to St. John's in 2012, and now should be much better as he comes to DePaul with two JUCO seasons under his belt. Here are all the freshman with at least three stars, and how many points they are expected to improve their team on an average night.

Freshman	Ht	Team	Proj Value add
Kelan Martin	6'5"	Butler	0.72
Tyler Wideman	6'6"	Butler	0.30
Jackson Davis	6'8"	Butler	0.20
			1.22
Ronnie Harrell	6'8"	Creighton	1.26
Leon Gilmore	6'7"	Creighton	0.77
			2.03
Raymond Doby	6'7"	DePaul	0.35
Rashaun Stimage	6'8"	DePaul	0.30
			0.65
Isaac Copeland	6'9"	Georgetown	4.30
Paul White	6'8"	Georgetown	1.60
L.J. Peak	6'4"	Georgetown	1.42
Tre Campbell	6'1"	Georgetown	0.85
Trey Mourning	6'9"	Georgetown	0.30
			8.47
Matt Carlino (Sr.-Tran)	6'2"	Marquette	3.10
Sandy Cohen	6'5"	Marquette	1.13
Duane Wilson (2013-RS)	6'3"	Marquette	1.60
Luke Fischer (2013-RS-Sem)	6'10"	Marquette	1.20
			7.03
Paschal Chukwu	7'2"	Providence	1.49
Jalen Lindsey	6'6"	Providence	1.41
Ben Bentil	6'8"	Providence	1.21
Kyron Cartwright	5'10"	Providence	0.25
			4.36
Isaiah Whitehead	6'4"	Seton Hall	5.00
Angel Delgado	6'8"	Seton Hall	1.57
Khadeen Carrington	6'3"	Seton Hall	0.84
Desi Rodriguez	6'5"	Seton Hall	0.60
Ismael Sanogo	6'6"	Seton Hall	0.40
Obinna Oleka	6'8"	Seton Hall	0.30
			8.71
Adonis DelaRosa	6'11"	St. John's	0.15
			0.15
Phil Booth	6'3"	Villanova	1.25
Mikal Bridges	6'6"	Villanova	1.15
			2.40
Trevon Bluiett	6'5"	Xavier	3.20
Makinde London	6'8"	Xavier	1.27
J.P. Macura	6'4"	Xavier	1.06
Larry Austin	6'1"	Xavier	0.94
Edmond Sumner	6'3"	Xavier	0.80
Sean O'Mara	6'9"	Xavier	0.73
			8.00

Hold the Mayo and Pass the Scrambled Questions

Once again some late breaking news has sent us to the podmobile to get a podcast fired up and out to you. This time it is the unexpected but not totally surprising news that Todd Mayo is no longer with the Marquette basketball team. It is unexpected from a timing standpoint, but not unsurprising given Todd's history at MU. We choose not to spend too much time on this development and instead pivot to your questions to us in our favorite segment #scrambledquestions. We did get a lot of Mayo questions of course, but thankfully a lot of them were forward looking so we tackled the game of "what does MU do now". Ultimately we plowed through at least a half dozen of your questions and we can only hope we answered them sufficiently. Enjoy the episode and here's to hoping the emergency podsignal will stay switched off for the next couple of months. Download this episode (right click and save)

Buycks Ranks as 4th Best Big East Player in Summer League

Dwight Buycks was the 4th best Big East player in Summer League based on a ratings system that basically mirrors the one I used to rate all Marquette player in The Ultimate Hoops Guide: Marquette University. Only the Georgetown duo of Otto Porter and Hollis Thompson, as well as Creighton's Doug McDermott ranked higher.

Using Buycks as an example, the formula is based on game averages of 19.7 points + 2.3 rebounds +4.3 assists + (2 X 0.7 steals) + (2 X 0 blocked shots) - 12.6 points allowed - 7.3 shots missed = 7.75 rating. That is the 65th best ranking of the 359 players who played in at least three games.

The number that should jump out at everyone on this list is the 4.3 assists, which gives him the 18th best assists average in Summer League. I had an NBA Assistant GM tell me two years ago that most thought Dwight could score at the NBA-level, the key was if he could learn to get assists.

NBA ROSTER PLAYERS NOT IN SUMMER LEAGUE (14): Dwayne Wade, Wesley Mathews, Jae Crowder, Jimmy Butler and Steve Novak give Marquette five players on NBA rosters NOT on this list, the most of any Big East team. Georgetown 3 (Henry Sims, Jeff Green and Roy Hibbert), Villanova 2 (Kyle Lowry, Randy Foye), Butler (Gordon Hayward), Creighton (Kyle Korver), Seton Hall (Samuel Dalembert), St. John’s (Maurice Harkless) and Xavier (David West) round out the 14 roster players not in Summer League.

Buycks gives Marquette six players on current rosters, while Porter and Thompson give Georgetown five. Based purely on these ratings, the next best chances to add to those numbers are further down the list. Georgetown's Chris Wright ranks 132nd, followed by Marquette's Trent Lockett (147th), Vander Blue (192nd after a great outing Saturday), Davante Gardner (201st), Jamil Wilson (209th after pulling out a Summer League quarterfinal win with an incredible assist and rejection in the closing seconds of overtime periods).

Rnk	Player	Top 3	Team	Rating	Pts	Reb	Ast	StlX2	BlockX2	Pts All	FG Miss
	Average Top 359 players			3.65	7.9	3.5	1.3	0.7	0.4	7.7	3.6
1	Glen Rice Jr	Georgia Tech	WAS	21.13	25.2	7.6	2.4	1.8	0.6	11.7	7.2
2	Justin Hamilton	LSU	MIA	17.96	18.0	7.0	2.0	0.7	3.0	12.1	4.3
3	Nerlens Noel	Kentucky	PHI	17.88	13.7	5.7	1.7	2.3	3.0	9.8	4.0
		Big East
28	Otto Porter	Georgetown	WAS	10.27	19.6	6.0	1.8	0.6	0.4	11.5	7.6
30	Doug McDermott	Creighton	CHI	10.04	18.0	4.0	2.8	0.0	0.8	10.4	6.0
49	Hollis Thompson	Georgetown	PHI	9.04	13.0	8.0	3.3	1.3	0.5	10.9	8.0
65	Dwight Buycks	Marquette	TOR	7.75	19.7	2.3	4.3	0.7	0.0	12.6	7.3
88	Ricky Ledo	Providence	DAL	6.02	15.4	3.8	4.4	1.4	0.0	10.8	9.6
113	Vernon Macklin	St. John's	ORL	4.85	5.4	3.6	0.0	0.6	1.2	5.9	1.8
132	Chris Wright	Georgetown	MIL	4.17	7.6	4.2	0.4	0.2	1.4	8.2	3.0
147	Trent Lockett	Marquette	DLS	3.43	11.8	4.7	1.7	1.7	0.2	13.1	5.5
157	Bryce Cotton	Providence	SAS	3.21	8.8	2.7	2.8	0.5	0.0	8.4	3.7
186	Justin Brownlee	St. John's	CHA	2.61	10.0	3.0	0.7	1.2	0.5	9.3	5.2
191	DJ Kennedy	St. John's	MIN	2.54	4.8	4.0	1.8	0.3	0.0	7.2	1.5
192	Vander Blue	Marquette	SAS	2.53	7.4	1.8	1.4	1.0	0.0	6.3	3.8
201	Davante Gardner	Marquette	CHI	2.31	3.0	1.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	1.0
202	Kenny Frease	Xavier	MIL	2.22	3.7	2.0	0.3	0.7	0.3	5.1	0.7
209	Jamil Wilson	Marquette	WAS	2.02	7.8	3.8	1.0	0.2	0.4	8.0	3.8
219	Maalik Wayns	Villanova	WAS	1.83	5.0	5.0	4.7	0.7	0.0	9.6	4.7
245	Mouphtaou Yarou	Villanova	PHI	1.20	1.8	1.8	0.0	0.0	0.3	2.3	0.8
278	DaJuan Summers	Georgetown	BKN	0.67	10.4	4.0	0.6	0.6	0.2	9.7	6.2
338	Fuquan Edwin	Seton Hall	OKC	-1.58	1.3	0.3	0.0	1.0	0.0	3.2	2.0

Dwight, Jamil, putting up above average numbers to start Summer League

Dwight Buycks and Jamil Wilson will post above average Summer League ratings in a post I have going up on www.breitbart.com today. I have a simple rating system for Summer League Play - basically the NBA Efficiency Rating only we do not have easy access to turnovers or missed free throws.

There are 302 players in Summer League who have played at least 18 minutes so far - so obviously just getting started for most - but the average player has a 0.50 rating for one net contribution for every two minutes played. I listed the top 10 and then the wort few players so far. Mason Plumlee and Bernard James are the only two averaging more than one per minute, and Cleveland may want to worry a little about UVa's Joe Harris first outing after he moved so fast up the draft board.

Most importantly, Buycks is in the top third of all Summer League players (0.60 rating) after leading the Raptors with 21 points in a loss. Meanwhile Jamil Wilson's 16 points on only five missed shots in 37 minutes helps give him a slightly above average 0.54. I confess I cannot find any accounts of Jamil's play, so I am purely relying on the stats posted - so will go back on the Scoop to read up on news, but wanted to at least post this.

Rnk	Summer League >18'	Team	Rating	Pts	Reb	Ast	Stl	Blk	Miss	Min
1	Mason Plumlee	BKN	1.06	54	14	5	5	2	6	70
2	Bernard James	DAL	1.05	36	17	1	4	5	5	55
3	Will Cherry	CLE	0.97	28	10	5	1	-	6	39
4	Trey Thompkins	LAL	0.97	25	6	1	2	-	4	31
5	Quincy Miller	DEN	0.97	49	12	6	2	4	13	62
6	Rudy Gobert	UTA	0.92	11	9	1	1	2	1	25
7	Cory Jefferson	BKN	0.91	56	34	1	7	8	9	107
8	Glen Rice Jr.	WAS	0.89	42	10	4	4	1	12	55
9	Nerlens Noel	PHI	0.89	41	17	5	7	9	12	76
10	Arinze Onuaku	IND	0.88	32	30	6	2	4	6	77
93	Dwight Buycks	TOR	0.60	35	4	9	1	-	16	55
127	Jamil Wilson	WAS	0.54	16	5	2	1	1	5	37
285	Alec Brown	PHX	0.17	7	4	1	-	4	11	29
298	Joe Harris	CLE	0.05	4	-	-	-	1	4	22
299	Dennis Horner	MIN	0.04	-	3	-	-	-	2	25
300	Jerome Jordan	LAL	-	-	3	-	1	2	6	24
301	Jerome Dyson	CHA	(0.03)	4	4	2	-	-	11	37
302	Scott Wood	LAL	(0.04)	2	2	-	1	-	6	24

Let's just admit we're all rusty at this and we'll get through it

It's been a couple of months since your ears have been blessed with the Scrambled Eggs podcast, so it's time to rectify that. We may have been on vacation but we're hoping it's not too noticeable. So where to start? A lot has happened in the last couple of weeks, but we start with the non-conference schedule and what that looks like within the scope of the team at present. We then transition into a roster discussion, including some of the additions and lack of transfers that will shape the team this season. That leads to a discussion of expectations for the season....spoiler alert, we're not sure what to think. The season will be shaped by the new staff Wojo has put together so we talk about that as well. Lastly, we talk about recruiting and just a hint of Buzz hating. Shake the rust off with us. Download this episode (right click and save)

MU Sets Record for NBA Players for 3rd Straight Year; 5 of them play in Playoffs

Two years after FIVE Marquette players played in the NBA in the same season, Marquette had FIVE players play in the NBA PLAYOFFS in one weekend including three starters and Jae Crowder, who had a +16 in just 12 minutes to help the Mavs almost upset the Spurs.

Marquette set a record for players in the NBA for the third straight year. For all the glory days of the past, the fact is Marquette never had more than three players in the NBA until Chris Crawford joined Tony Smith, Amal McCaskill and Jim McIlvaine to make it four in 1998, and then never topped that figure until FIVE played in the NBA. Then it was SIX in 2013 and EIGHT this season:

MU in NBA	Years
8	2014
7	2013
5	2012
4	1998-2001, 2010-2011
3	1971-1975, 1980, 1984-87, 1992, 1995-1997, 2004, 2007-2009

In 2012, Jimmy Butler joined Dwyane Wade, Steve Novak, Wesley Matthews and Lazar Hayward to make it five for the first time in Marquette history.

In 2013, those five were all still there and one of the greatest duos in Marquette history, Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder, set a new record with SEVEN Marquette players seeing action. DJO just had a few minutes on the court, but Crowder made the Mavs rotation.

This year Vander Blue joined DJO in getting a few minutes on the court and Dwight Buycks pocketed a nice $700,000 contract and got some real court time with Toronto (including 22 minutes in the season finale Wednesday) to set a new record with EIGHT Marquette players seeing action.

Buycks has the best chance of those three to play against next year. On the flip side, Marquette has three playoff STARTERS on the court this weekend in Dwyane Wade (Miami), Jimmy Butler (Chicago) and Wesley Matthews (Portland).

Steve Novak played only briefly Saturday for the Raptors but hopefully can continue to find a team that needs a tall three-point shooter for situations.

And that leaves Jae Crowder, who went from not being in the Top 100 prospects prior to his senior season, to finishing as the 2nd ranked player behind Anthony Davis at www.valueaddbasketball.com, to the Mavs rotation. In 12 minutes Sunday, Crowder was a +16 - meaning the Mavs won by 16 points while he was on the court, as he made the most of his quarter of play by hitting both three-point attempts and grabbing four rebounds, a steal and blocking a shot.

The +16 is not everything - 2nd team players mainly face other 2nd team players - but Crowder seems to be establishing himself as a player who could be around for a while.

Eight could be the peak, as it is unlikely all eight will play again in 2015 and the next two Marquette players listed in the Top 100 prospects in their class are freshman JuJuan Johnson (53rd) and Deonte Burton (67th). However, Crowder's line makes it look like MU has four solid players until whenever Wade retires and we can hope for the other four to find a steady spot.

Mavs vs. Spurs	+/-	MIN	FGM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	OREB	DREB	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	PTS
Jae Crowder, SF	16	12	2 of 3	2 of 2	0 of 0	1	3	4	0	1	1	0	3	6

Wojo signs with CAA Sports. Jimmy Sexton will represent, one of the most powerful figures in college sports

New Marquette coach Steve Wojciechowski has signed with CAA Sports for representation.  Jimmy Sexton will be the lead agent for his affairs.

Sexton currently represents John Calipari, Erik Spoelstra, and Mike Anderson on the basketball side.  He is known more for his representation of college football coaches, including Alabama's Nick Saban, Auburn's Gus Malzahn, Florida State's Jimbo Fisher, UCLA's Jim Mora among others. 

Sexton is considered one of the most powerful people in college sports as he represents some of the most sought out candidates in college football.  When college coaching football rumors are swirling, one of Sexton's guys is often mentioned as a candidate on the move.  He has been called "the SEC's true power broker."  Some cynics have argued that Sexton helps to seed those rumors to get better pay day for his clients.  At times, Sexton will represent multiple coaches for the same job opportunity which he leverages to the hilt.  Others, including many Athletic Directors, have generally high praise for Sexton's down home charm and personal relationship building, even if he just extracted a few million extra dollars from them.

Sexton has stated, "I always felt like the best negotiations are where you get what you want, but no one hates you for it."  Both sides feel good about the outcome.  His clients trust him and those he negotiates with (at least some) don't view him in an adversarial manner.  At the age of 20, Sexton convinced Reggie White to sign with him as his agent.

For Wojo to go from no representation at Duke to powerhouse agent like Sexton is interesting.  If one were to look at Sexton's client list of players and coaches in the NFL, NCAA football, NBA, etc, MU would likely rank near the bottom.  What does that mean for the future?  Well, not surprisingly if Wojo is successful, MU will be paying a lot of money to keep him around and I suspect more than a few rumors of his name being mentioned for other jobs.  It's how the coaching carousel game will be played.

First things first, he has to do well with MU or it doesn't particularly matter.


List of some of Sexton's clients

Nick Saban
John Calipari
Jim Mora
Erik Spoelstra
Ndamukong Suh
Tim Tebow
Bill Parcels
Will Muschamp
Mike Gundy
Steve Spurrier
Gus Malzahn
Frank Beamer
Rich Rodriquez
Bobby Petrino
Butch Davis
Phillip Rivers
Jason Witten
Chris Samuels
Aaron Glenn
Jason Sehorn
Michael Oher
DeAngelo Williams
Patrick Ramsey
Jerome Woods
Scottie Pippen
Horace Grant
Mike Anderson
Quinn Snyder
Rex Ryan
Don Capers
Jim Haslett
Lane Kiffin

2003 Value Add Rankings Released as Final Four tips off

For the first time I am releasing Value Add Rankings for the 2003 season due to Ken Pomeroy (please subscribe at www.kenpom.com!) calculating tempo free stats for three additional years (2003-2005). As the Final Four tips off this let me run the program on all players from 2003 to 2014 to finally see just how good Dwyane Wade ranked during the last MU Final Four run.

Below for the first time are the top 25 Value Add players of 2003 and all of the MU players who added value in the Final Four season.

Of the almost 50,000 player seasons during the 12 seasons now going into www.valueaddbasketball.com, Wade's 2003 campaign ranks as the 7th most valuable performance. He did it in a very special year - of the 30 best seasons during that span SEVEN occurred during the 2003 campaign - more than double any other season. Chris Bosh had the 25th best season, Carmelo Anthony surged even more than the Kentucky freshman have this year to get up to seventh.

Unfortunately two Kansas players I would like to forget made it into the top 20, but going a little further down the list we see Travis Diener already at 39th (remember that is close to the top 1% of all players), Robert Jackson almost gave MU the rare trio of Top 100 players, and Scott Merritt gave us an even more rare four top 200 players.

Steve Novak was already in the top 10% of players, and he and Diener would take it to new heights.

The fact that Novak and Diener joined Wade with NBA careers is a truly rare feat, as many great players cannot get to the next level. The two players ahead of Wade in helping their team slightly more than Wade over the course of the season barely played in the NBA. Troy Bell was a dominant Consensus All-American among the top few players in scoring and assists, and Mike Sweetney dominated inside at Georgetown, but it was Dave West of Xavier who finished just behind Wade and is now more of a factor in whether or not Wade takes another NBA title.

I know it has been a down year - so getting an unexpected chance to look back at 2003 and what an incredible year and team it was was quite a treat for me as the Final Four tips off.

2003 Rnk	Fname	Lname	College	Offense	Ovr Value Add
1	Troy	Bell	Boston College	9.26	12.17
2	Mike	Sweetney	Georgetown	7.12	11.5
3	Dwyane	Wade	Marquette	6.49	11.4
4	David	West	Xavier	6.39	11.05
5	Jameer	Nelson	Saint Joseph's	5.1	10.48
6	Josh	Howard	Wake Forest	6.17	10.19
7	Carmelo	Anthony	Syracuse	6.07	9.79
8	Ryan	Gomes	Providence	5.85	9.56
9	Hollis	Price	Oklahoma	6.35	8.97
10	Marques	Green	St. Bonaventure	5.72	8.92
11	Marquis	Daniels	Auburn	4.42	8.79
12	Brett	Blizzard	UNC Wilmington	5.68	8.77
13	Emeka	Okafor	Connecticut	3.54	8.46
14	Nick	Collison	Kansas	5.08	8.43
15	Kyle	Korver	Creighton	6.23	8.42
16	TJ	Ford	Texas	4.27	7.86
17	Reece	Gaines	Louisville	5.09	7.76
18	Chris	Kaman	Central Michigan	4.11	7.57
19	Kirk	Hinrich	Kansas	4.9	7.52
20	Marcus	Hatten	St. John's	3.14	7.44
21	Luke	Ridnour	Oregon	4.53	7.42
22	Ben	Gordon	Connecticut	4.91	7.41
23	Craig	Smith	Boston College	5.94	7.4
24	Devin	Harris	Wisconsin	4.26	7.38
25	Chris	Bosh	Georgia Tech	4.5	7.27
39	Travis	Diener	Marquette	4.22	6.53
115	Robert	Jackson	Marquette	4.36	4.77
199	Scott	Merritt	Marquette	2.33	3.73
306	Steve	Novak	Marquette	2.97	2.85
491	Todd	Townsend	Marquette	2.3	1.67
853	Terry	Sanders	Marquette	0.52	0.52
974	Joe	Chapman	Marquette	0.3	0.27
1066	Chris	Grimm	Marquette	0.26	0.14
1158	Karon	Bradley	Marquette	0.05	0.02

The Wojo era begins

To borrow from a favorite cartoon show of ours....yeah, MU fans, that month sure sucked last month. March just plain sucked. I've seen months suck before but March was the suckiest bunch of sucks that ever sucked. So we quickly pivot from that to the dawning Wojo era. Side note, I can't spell words let alone Wojciechowski, so Wojo will be the nom de guerre for Scrambled Eggs. Anyway, we talk Wojo, what we think his impact on MU will be and what are our expectations. We walk through some of the reasons to like the hire despite Phil's and some fan's initial reluctance. We also talk about the current players, if they stay, and some very interesting quotes that came out. Lastly we talk incoming recruits and the new university president. So we welcome our new basketball overlord in Coach Wojo and wish him the best of luck! Download this episode (right click and save)

The Forgotten Assistant? Let's Talk Wojo

When I wrote about current assistant coaches as candidates for Marquette, I didn't include Steve Wojciechowski for a reason. After playing at Duke for 4 years, Wojo played one year professionally in Poland before returning to Durham, where he has spent 15 years on the bench, the last 6 as Coach K's associate head coach. While other Duke assistants have moved on, Wojo has seemingly been groomed to simply move up a chair when Coach K steps down.

After today's announcement that Steve Wojciechowski would take over as the 17th Head Coach of the Marquette Men's Basketball team, I decided I should correct the error of leaving him off the list. I felt when I wrote that he was arguably the best assistant in the country, but unattainable. Clearly, the latter part of that wasn't the case. So here goes:

Offense Average: 6
Defense Average: 62
Top-25 Classes: 9/12
NCAA Wins: 34
Final Fours: 3

Steve Wojciechowski: The former McDonald's All-American played for 4 years under Coach K and after one year in Poland, returned to the Duke bench as an assistant. He has been there since he was 22 years old and in his 15 years has seen the Blue Devils cut down the nets at the Final Four twice. Despite playing point guard for Duke, Wojo was their big man coach for years, helping instruct the likes of Shane Battier, Elton Brand, Carlos Boozer, and numerous other NBA players. The past 3 years Wojo transitioned to instructing the guards, so he has experience instructing at all positions, with guys like Austin Rivers, Quinn Cook, and Rodney Hood benefiting from his tutelage. Wojo also has 2 Gold Medals as an assistant to Coach K on the USA Olympic teams. He's a proven recruiter and likely already has a relationship with some of Marquette's higher profile targets like Diamond Stone and Ahmed Hill. While many will say Duke recruits itself, no school competing for recruits against Kentucky, North Carolina, and Kansas could really say the job is easy.

One more note on Marquette's new head coach. I've already heard some grumbling that he will be another guy looking to move on as soon as possible and will simply angle to get the Duke job when Coach K retires in a few years. While that's entirely possible, if Duke did pluck Wojo back from Marquette, it would undoubtedly be a sign that he had a lot of success in his time here. In addition, he will be competing with guys like Johnny Dawkins, Mike Brey, Tommy Amaker, and Chris Collins, all also former Duke assistants that would likely return to Durham if give the chance, so Wojo is hardly a shoo-in for that role, especially considering other high-profile coaches like Brad Stevens and Shaka Smart could try to get the gig as well. Finally, Wojo has shown a ton of loyalty by staying at Coach K's side as long as he has. It seems that he knows a good thing when he has it. If Marquette treats him well and he returns the favor with a successful program, he could be here for a long time.