Predicting the Top-16 Reveal

Marquette was last included in the 2019 Top-16 Reveal
Screenshot from CBS Sports

This Saturday will bring the NCAA's official Top-16 Reveal. When even the Selection Committee is doing bracketology, it means we're getting to the serious part of the season. We decided to dig into the history of the Reveal, using all of the data from the first five Reveals, including both NET and RPI data as both were the relevant metrics of their time. First, here are the teams year by year, in descending order from the Top Overall Seed at the Reveal to the 16th and final Revealed team. The teams below the gap are teams that were ranked in the Top-16 of the current metric at the time but were left out:

	2021 Reveal	NET	2020 Reveal	NET	2019 Reveal	NET	2018 Reveal	RPI	2017 Reveal	RPI
1	Gonzaga	2	Baylor	2	Duke	3	Virginia	1	Villanova	2
2	Baylor	1	Kansas	4	Tennessee	4	Villanova	2	Kansas	3
3	Michigan	3	Gonzaga	3	Virginia	1	Xavier	3	Baylor	1
4	Ohio State	7	San Diego State	1	Gonzaga	2	Purdue	9	Gonzaga	11
5	Illinois	4	Duke	6	Kentucky	5	Auburn	5	UNC	4
6	Villanova	9	Dayton	5	Michigan	6	Kansas	6	Florida State	6
7	Alabama	10	Louisville	7	UNC	8	Duke	8	Louisville	5
8	Houston	5	West Virginia	8	Michigan St	9	Cincinnati	11	Oregon	10
9	Virginia	6	Maryland	10	Purdue	11	Clemson	4	Arizona	9
10	West Virginia	17	Florida State	14	Kansas	18	Texas Tech	14	Virginia	14
11	Tennessee	11	Seton Hall	13	Houston	7	Michigan St	21	Florida	7
12	Oklahoma	20	Villanova	15	Marquette	21	UNC	13	Kentucky	12
13	Iowa	8	Auburn	16	Iowa State	13	Tennessee	10	Butler	8
14	Texas Tech	15	Oregon	19	Nevada	14	Ohio State	22	West Virginia	36
15	Texas	21	Butler	11	Louisville	15	Arizona	15	UCLA	21
16	Missouri	34	Michigan St	12	Wisconsin	12	Oklahoma	19	Duke	17
	Colorado	12	Arizona	9	Virginia Tech	10	Rhode Island	7	Xavier	13
	Loyola Chi	13			Texas Tech	16	Nevada	12	Cincinnati	15
	Colgate	14					Seton Hall	16	Creighton	16
	USC	16

Here are our key takeaways:

The Reveal Reinforces the Current Metric: The first thing that stands out is the number of teams ranked in the top-16 of the RPI/NET that are also in the Top-16 Reveal. 67/80 (83.8%) teams in past reveals were in the top-16 of the current metric. When you go outside the top-16, 78/80 (97.5%) were still in the top-22, so it's rare for teams to show up below that ranking. In the instances teams outside did show up, they were massive outliers in the closest alternate metric. For RPI #36 West Virginia, given a 4-seed in 2017, they were ranked #3 in kenpom at the time. For NET #34 Missouri, given a 4-seed in 2021, they were ranked #2 in RPI at the time. If you aren't in the top-22 of the current metric, you had better be elite in the companion metric.

The Top Two Seeds Lines Are Top-11 Teams: This has happened without fail. There have been a handful of double-digit teams to crack that top-8, but none lower than 11th. Worth watching that NET as there are some outliers perceived to be fighting for the 2-line. The Top-11 teams are also pretty safe when it comes to inclusion. 52/55 (94.5%) teams ranked in the top-11 were included in the Reveal, whereas just 15/25 (60%) of the teams from 12-16 were included. This calculus played in when evaluating Villanova, Texas Tech, and Duke for the final 2-seed.

Only Elite Mid-Majors Need Apply: Only 10/80 (12.5%) teams from outside the traditional Top-6 conferences have been included in the Reveal. 6/10 (66.7%) were ranked in the top-5 of the current metric. The exceptions had immaculate records, including 2017 Gonzaga (#11 in RPI, 25-0), 2018 Cincinnati (#11 in RPI, 22-2), 2019 Houston (#7 in NET, 22-1) and 2019 Nevada (#14 in NET, 22-1). If you had 3+ losses outside the Top-6 leagues, you were left out. And obviously Colgate in 2021, who was a COVID scheduling NET outlier.

Replacement Teams Are From Top-6 Leagues: There have been 13 teams from outside the Top-16 of the current metric to be included and all of them came from one of the traditional Top-6 leagues. Don't expect the Selection Committee to look to a mid-major if they throw a curveball.

We have a little discussion on our selections for the Top-16 Reveal. In accordance with past history, Gonzaga is the only team from outside the traditional Top-6 leagues. 14/16 teams selected were also in the Top-16 of NET, with the exceptions being #20 Wisconsin and #31 Providence. Here is commentary on a line-by-line basis:

1-Seeds -- Gonzaga, Arizona, Auburn, Kansas: The first three seem clear. Gonzaga is the top overall seed because despite the resume, their quality metrics are by far the best in the field. Both Arizona and Auburn seem like obvious picks, which left four teams for one spot. Kansas has the best average of Resume and Metric rankings and leads the nation in Q1+2 wins, which allowed them to edge out Baylor, Kentucky, and Purdue for the final 1-seed.

2-Seeds -- Baylor, Kentucky, Purdue, Villanova: The first three feel obvious and would more likely show up on the top line than the line below. Villanova gets the last 2-seed due to their #5 NET ranking and a better Resume+Metric Average than any team below them.

3-Seeds -- Texas Tech, Duke, Tennessee, Wisconsin: Tech and Duke were considered for the 2-line, but the metrics just didn't justify moving them up despite excellent quality wins. Tennessee's win over Kentucky helped solidify their selection here and while their Q1 isn't as good as some others, they have no losses outside Q1A. Wisconsin was on our 4-line previously, but with their NET moving up to 19 after the Indiana win, there is now precedent for them being placed this high (2021 Oklahoma, 2019 Marquette, and 2018 Michigan State were all ranked lower) and their 8 Q1 wins are second only to Baylor.

4-Seeds -- UCLA, Illinois, LSU, Providence: Both UCLA and Illinois seemed like they had to be included. Both have the numbers and enough Q1 volume to warrant inclusion without any truly bad losses. LSU does have a Q3 loss but we moved them up because no one around them has a resume that is significantly better enough without some serious blemishes. Providence sticks as the last team in. While their NET ranking doesn't seem to warrant inclusion, their single digit resume average is good enough that it seems likely they'll be included. PC fans have long said their is no comparison to their resume, but I would point to 2017 West Virginia. While they had diametrically opposite resumes (WVU had monster wins and narrow losses, PC has narrow wins and big losses), both excelled in the metric that was not the NCAA's chosen of the day. On the team sheets, WVU had the aforementioned kenpom rank of #3 while Providence has an average resume metric of 8.5.

Also considered -- Alabama, Texas, Houston: The Selection Committee always discusses a few teams that are just on the outside looking in. These three all have pros and cons. Alabama has a brilliant top-end resume and SOS, but their two Q3 losses and borderline metrics weren't good enough to put them in. Texas has similar quality and is ranked #15 in the NET, but too much of their record is puffed up by Q4 games. Houston has excellent numbers, but despite the #4 NET (which would be the highest ever left out of the Reveal) they have zero Q1 wins, zero wins over the field, and too many total losses to be included from outside a power conference.

And last...Marquette: The Golden Eagles had a legitimate chance to get in this discussion, but the loss to Butler and narrow win over Georgetown dropped their NET from 24 to 32. Had they beat Butler and held their 26-point lead against the Hoyas, they may have been able to get to the 4-line or at least been one of the alternates considered, but instead they are heading in the other direction. For now they hold on to our last 6-seed thanks to their Q1 wins, but it was a close evaluation between them and St. Mary's (the Gaels' 2-6 Q1 record just wasn't good enough). A win at Creighton so their Q1+2 record doesn't fall below .500 would be strongly advised.

Here's the entire S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-ARIZONA 3-Auburn 4-Kansas

2-Seeds: 8-VILLANOVA 7-PURDUE 6-KENTUCKY 5-BAYLOR

3-Seeds: 9-Texas Tech 10-DUKE 11-Tennessee 12-Wisconsin

4-Seeds: 16-Providence 15-Lsu 14-Illinois 13-Ucla

5-Seeds: 17-Alabama 18-Texas 19-HOUSTON 20-Ohio State

6-Seeds: 24-Marquette 23-Michigan State 22-Usc 21-Connecticut

7-Seeds: 25-St. Mary's 26-Arkansas 27-COLORADO STATE 28-Boise State

8-Seeds: 32-Seton Hall 31-San Francisco 30-Iowa State 29-Xavier

9-Seeds: 33-Miami 34-MURRAY STATE 35-Wyoming 36-Tcu

10-Seeds: 40-Memphis 39-Notre Dame 38-Wake Forest 37-Iowa

11-Seeds: 41-Davidson 42-Creighton 43-Byu 44-Michigan 45-Kansas State 46-San Diego State

12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-DAYTON 47-LOYOLA CHICAGO

13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 53-NEW MEXICO STATE 54-TOLEDO

14-Seeds: 58-OAKLAND 57-WAGNER 56-TOWSON 55-VERMONT

15-Seeds: 59-PRINCETON 60-LIBERTY 61-UC IRVINE 62-MONTANA STATE

16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS 67-SOUTHERN 66-NORFOLK STATE 65-LONGWOOD 64-NAVY 63-SOUTH ALABAMA

 

Last Four Byes: Notre Dame, Memphis, Davidson, Creighton

Last Four In: Byu, Michigan, Kansas State, San Diego State

First Four Out: Indiana, North Carolina, SMU, Rutgers

Next Four Out:  VCU, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Belmont

Multibid Leagues

Big East: 7

Big 10: 7

Big 12: 7

SEC: 6

ACC: 5

MWC: 4

WCC: 4

Pac-12: 3

American: 2

Atlantic-10: 2

Marquette's Quadrant Breakdown

Marquette will try to avoid stepping on more rakes like the loss at Butler
 Image from The Simpsons | 20th Television

The bracket side of Cracked Sidewalks is preparing for a guest appearance on the Delphi Bracketology podcast later tonight as well as the Top-16 Reveal, so instead of digging deep into a topic, we'll talk a bit about Marquette's resume by Quadrant, including what's left on the schedule before getting to the new S-Curve. At this point, it's all about trying to not step on any more rakes.

Quadrant 1 (7-6), Remaining (1): at Creighton

Marquette is tied for third nationally in Quadrant 1 wins, behind only Baylor (9) and Kansas (8). While the game at Creighton is the only Q1 opportunity left on the schedule, the home game at Seton Hall could potentially move up to this Quadrant as the Pirates are 34 in the NET and the home cut-off is 30. At the other end, Providence could fall from Q1 to Q2 as the Friars sit exactly on the Q1 cutline at 30. Regardless, this is a very strong number, particularly as 4 of these wins are in the elite Q1A category.

Quadrant 2 (2-3), Remaining (1): at DePaul

The good news is that Marquette's two worst losses have moved up to this Quadrant as Creighton and St. Bonaventure are currently in Q2B. The roadie at DePaul is the only remaining Q2 game, though the Ole Miss win could move to this category as the Rebels are at 108 with the neutral cut-off being 100. Creighton is the game that seems most likely to fall out of this category, the Jays are 70 and the cutoff is 75.

Quadrant 3 (3-0), Remaining (2): vs Butler, vs St. John's

Marquette is solid here, with the only worry being a game from Q2 dropping to this range. Win at home and hope nothing falls so the resume doesn't have any bad losses.

Quadrant 4 (4-0), Remaining (1): vs Georgetown 

It's rare to play a Q4 game in Big East play, but here come the Hoyas. None of Marquette's current Q4 games look likely to move up, and Georgetown certainly doesn't seem to show any indications of improving by the 55 spots they would need to reach Q3 territory. The positive in this quadrant is there are no sub-300 games, which has helped give Marquette the #2 ranked Strength of Schedule nationally, which factored into us placing them on the 6 line this week.

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-ARIZONA 3-Auburn 4-KENTUCKY

2-Seeds: 8-DUKE 7-PURDUE 6-BAYLOR 5-Kansas

3-Seeds: 9-VILLANOVA 10-Texas Tech 11-Tennessee 12-Ucla

4-Seeds: 16-HOUSTON 15-Providence 14-Wisconsin 13-Illinois

5-Seeds: 17-Lsu 18-Alabama 19-Michigan St 20-Ohio St

6-Seeds: 24-Xavier 23-Marquette 22-Connecticut 21-Texas

7-Seeds: 25-Arkansas 26-St. Mary's 27-Usc 28-Colorado St

8-Seeds: 32-Iowa 31-Boise St 30-WYOMING 29-Seton Hall

9-Seeds: 33-Tcu 34-MURRAY ST 35-San Francisco 36-Wake Forest

10-Seeds: 40-North Carolina 39-Notre Dame 38-Miami 37-Iowa St

11-Seeds: 41-Indiana 42-Oklahoma 43-Creighton 44-Memphis 45-Byu 46-Oregon

12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-NORTH TEXAS 48-DAYTON 47-LOYOLA CHICAGO

13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-SOUTH DAKOTA ST 53-TOLEDO 54-NEW MEXICO ST

14-Seeds: 58-OAKLAND 57-WAGNER 56-TOWSON 55-VERMONT

15-Seeds: 59-LIBERTY 60-UC IRVINE 61-PRINCETON 62-MONTANA ST

16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS ST 67-SOUTHERN 66-GARDNER WEBB 65-NORFOLK ST 64-NAVY 63-SOUTH ALABAMA

 

Last Four Byes: Notre Dame, North Carolina, Indiana, Oklahoma

Last Four In: Creighton, Memphis, BYU, Oregon

First Four Out: San Diego State, Kansas State, Davidson, Belmont

Next Four Out: Michigan, West Virginia, SMU, Rutgers

Also Considered: Florida, Mississippi St, Virginia Tech, VCU, St. Louis, UAB, Virginia, Washington St, Texas A&M, Utah St, Santa Clara, Cincinnati

A bad week to be sure, but let's take it in stride

Well, the joys of college basketball generally and #mubb specifically is they zig when we zag. The team had a rough week losing one game that was somewhat expected and another that was definitely unexpected. So we talk about the week in total and especially everyone taking their foot off the gas against Butler. We also spend time talking about the defense and what is driving the lagging performance of late. We then look ahead to the week to come and predict whether it will bring success or more pain. As always, enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/t5btmp/ScrambledEggs_Editted_021322.mp3

Big East Win Targets

Justin, how many wins would it take to lock Marquette into the NCAA field?
 Photo by Justin Gash | AP Sports

The Big East has 7 teams fighting for bids right now. So what do they need to do in order for all 7 to get in, and is there any chance one of the outsiders could crack the field? Bear in mind any of these teams could probably get to Dayton with one fewer win than I'm presenting, but we are talking lock status, Let's break them down in order of the standings:

Providence Friars (20-2/10-1) -- 1 win:  The Friars might be safe already, but the strength of their resume is the lack of losses, and if they suddenly had losses to DePaul and Butler (among others) on the resume, the resume metrics that are propping them up would drop quickly. I expect they could probably lose out and still get into Dayton, but they need at least one more to be certain.

Villanova Wildcats (18-6/11-3) -- 1 win: Similar to Providence, Villanova is probably safe, but if they lose out their 18-13 record would be the kind that gets a lot more scrutiny. Get one more win and they are completely secure.

Connecticut Huskies (16-6/7-4) -- 4 wins: UConn needed that win against Marquette as it's only their third win over a team in the projected field (two against Marquette and a beauty over Auburn). They still need to add a couple notches on the belt. This feels like a high number for a team with UConn's metrics, but their win over Marquette was only their third against a team in the field (MU twice & Auburn) and they have three games against teams unlikely to get in. While 3 wins would probably be enough considering the soft bubble, it would take 20 wins for UConn to feel completely safe on Selection Sunday.

Marquette Golden Eagles (16-8/8-5) -- 3 wins: Marquette is similar to Villanova in that 18 is just a very risky number of wins to bring to the Selection Committee. They have enough quality wins and the metrics are fine, so it's just a matter of not stepping on too many rakes before Selection Sunday. The remaining schedule should mean a comfortable finish, but Marquette fans jaded by major swoons each of the past 3 years could be forgiven for not feeling that comfort just yet.

Creighton Blue Jays (14-8/6-5) -- 6 wins: While 5 might do it, anything less than 6-2 down the stretch will have them sweating in Omaha. The plus side is they have some fantastic wins and despite the shaky metrics; their three Q1A wins are the types of wins that get poor-metric teams into Dayton (see 2019 Arizona State, 2019 St. Johns, and 2021 Wichita State). Getting 6 more wins would mean adding at least 2 more over teams in the field. It's an uphill climb, but the opportunity is there.

Xavier Musketeers (16-7/6-6) -- 4 wins: Xavier's once sterling resume is starting to look iffy. They haven't beat a top-75 NET team since December 18. They only have wins over two teams we can confidently put in the field (Ohio State and Marquette, Creighton is very bubbly). As long as they can win the games they are supposed to down the stretch, they should be okay, but as we saw at Cintas against DePaul, that hasn't been an easy task of late.

Seton Hall Pirates (15-7/6-6) -- 3 wins: While this would put Seton Hall in that "not hitting 19" category we discussed above, their cancelled games mean 18 wins would keep them out of Dayton. Picking up one more quality win (Xavier, Villanova, or UConn all qualify) would really help their case, but the Pirates are still in pretty good shape as long as they don't collapse.

St. John's Red Storm (13-10/5-7) -- 7 wins: The good news for St. John's is that they can get in the field without needing to cut down nets at MSG. The bad news is they probably can't take another loss and feel secure in that. Their miserable non-conference made it really difficult to get an at-large, but if they win out, they would add 4-5 wins over teams in the field, including two away from home. There's no margin for error, but with their NCSOS they really can't afford to be close to the bubble because when your best non-con win is Colgate, the Selection Committee won't view your resume favorably.

DePaul Blue, Blue, Blue Demons (12-10/3-9) -- 8 wins: It's St. John's all over. If DePaul wins out, they could get an at-large. There isn't much in the non-con to write home about, but they didn't take any terrible losses there either. The wins over Seton Hall and Xavier are both solid and a winning record in this league with what would be required to win out would have them dancing in Chicago. It's a virtual impossibility, but for now they can cling to virtual reality.

Butler Bulldogs, Georgetown Hoyas -- 4 wins (at MSG): Both teams have amassed too many losses already to have any real case for the Selection Committee. It would take a repeat of Patrick Ewing's 2021 run for either to hear their name called.

Here's the updated S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-Auburn 3-Kansas 4-ARIZONA

2-Seeds: 8-HOUSTON 7-KENTUCKY 6-PURDUE 5-BAYLOR

3-Seeds: 9-VILLANOVA 10-DUKE 11-Wisconsin 12-Texas Tech

4-Seeds: 16-Providence 15-Ucla 14-Illinois 13-Tennessee

5-Seeds: 17-Texas 18-Marquette 19-Lsu 20-Alabama

6-Seeds: 24-Michigan St 23-St. Mary's 22-Arkansas 21-Ohio St

7-Seeds: 25-Connecticut 26-Xavier 27-Seton Hall 28-Indiana

8-Seeds: 32-Usc 31-Tcu 30-Boise St 29-Iowa St

9-Seeds: 33-Wake Forest 34-Iowa 35-WYOMING 36-Colorado St

10-Seeds: 40-Byu 39-LOYOLA CHICAGO 38-Davidson 37-MURRAY ST

11-Seeds: 41-West Virginia 42-Oklahoma 43-San Francisco 44-Oregon 45-Notre Dame

12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-UAB 48-ST. LOUIS 47-Belmont 46-Creighton

13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-NEW MEXICO ST 53-SOUTH DAKOTA ST 54-TOLEDO

14-Seeds: 58-OAKLAND 57-WAGNER 56-TOWSON 55-VERMONT

15-Seeds: 59-LIBERTY 60-UC IRVINE 61-MONTANA ST 62-PRINCETON

16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS ST 67-TEXAS SOUTHERN 66-GARDNER WEBB 65-NORFOLK ST 64-SOUTH ALABAMA 63-NAVY

 

First Four Out: Michigan, Miami, SMU, San Diego St

Next Four Out: North Carolina, VCU, Florida, North Texas

Multi-bid Leagues

Big 12: 8

Big East: 7

Big 10: 7

SEC: 6

Pac-12: 4

WCC: 4

ACC:  3

MWC: 3

A-10: 2

OVC: 2

BPI Should be Removed from Team Sheets

Might BPI cost Creighton a NCAA bid?
 Photo by Mitchell Layton | Getty Images

While playing around on with Team Sheets today, I decided to dig into ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI). Of the metrics included on the official NCAA Team Sheets, only BPI is owned by a media company. The Selection Committee uses averages of the metrics on the Team Sheets when it comes to seeding and selection, so what numbers are on there matters.

There are two types of metrics on the NCAA Team Sheets. Resume metrics look at wins and losses, similar to the old RPI. Quality metrics look at team efficiency, so the more you score and fewer you allow, the better you do. The easiest way to understand the difference is to look at a team like Providence, who has a great record, and thus excellent resume metrics (5.0 average) but with blowout losses and narrow win margins, comparably low quality metrics (36.7 average). BPI is one of those quality metrics, along with kenpom and Sagarin.

What is galling to some fans is that Mountain West teams in particular (and Marquette, for fans of this blog) fares far worse in BPI than they do the other quality metrics. While systems using different calculations will always have disparities, when one of those systems belongs to a media company that has contracts to broadcast some teams and not others, those disparities will be the ones that stand out the most.

I went through the top-100 teams in the NET and picked out every team where the BPI rank was 10 spots greater or worse than the other two quality metrics. I then looked at both the change made by the BPI in terms of how far it moved the team's quality average and also looked at who the team's conference has their media rights with. Here are the results, with teams in red being teams ranked worse by BPI and teams in green being ranked better by BPI:

Team	BPI	KP	SAG	AVG	Change	TV
Marquette	43	24	31	32.7	-5.2	Fox
Wyoming	91	36	69	65.3	-12.8	Fox
Boise State	56	29	38	41.0	-7.5	Fox
Colorado State	86	50	40	58.7	-13.7	Fox
Virginia Tech	21	35	35	30.3	5.3	ESPN
Utah State	74	31	53	52.7	-10.7	Fox
Belmont	42	55	60	52.3	5.2	ESPN
BYU	80	46	42	56.0	-12.0	ESPN
Mississippi St	27	49	45	40.3	6.7	ESPN
Chattanooga	57	68	88	71.0	7.0	ESPN
Toledo	62	72	75	69.7	3.8	ESPN
Cincinnati	88	78	78	81.3	-3.3	ESPN
Texas A&M	60	76	80	72.0	6.0	ESPN
Creighton	94	77	64	78.3	-7.8	Fox
New Mexico St	127	88	89	101.3	-12.8	ESPN
Clemson	53	67	70	63.3	5.2	ESPN
Richmond	66	86	81	77.7	5.8	ESPN
Stanford	100	90	87	92.3	-3.8	Pac-12
Colorado	120	99	79	99.3	-10.3	Pac-12
Wagner	90	113	126	109.7	9.8	ESPN+
Liberty	82	98	110	96.7	7.3	ESPN+

It seems noteworthy that every single team who benefits more from BPI is in a league that has a contract with ESPN. It also seems noteworthy that 8 of the 11 teams that are harmed most by BPI have their primary contracts with networks other than ESPN. The only potential at-large team that is harmed by the BPI is BYU. Every other viable at-large candidate that is harmed is with Fox and every viable at-large candidate that is helped is with ESPN.

How much impact might this have? In the case of a team like Marquette or Belmont, it could move them up or down one seed line. For teams like Colorado State or Wyoming, it could be 2-3 seed lines and possibly even keep them out of the tournament altogether. For a team currently on the bubble, like the Big East's Creighton, BPI could be the reason they miss the NCAA Tournament. Considering the value of NCAA Tournament Credits, this is hugely impactful, particularly for leagues that rely on College Basketball and the NCAA Tournament for significant portions of their revenue.

Maybe it's coincidence. Maybe this is an outlier year. However this at the bare minimum has the appearance of potential impropriety. It is certainly plausible that the creators of BPI have found a way to weight their metric to help programs that have contracts with their company.

I don't know what goes into all the metrics present on the Team Sheets. Maybe BPI is on the up-and-up and this is just a coincidence. But if the NCAA values transparency, honesty, and good faith, they should remove BPI from the Team Sheets immediately. Media companies should not be able to put their fingers on the scales of the NCAA Selection, and it certainly seems plausible that's exactly what's going on with the BPI.

Location, Location, Location

Andrew Rowsey wasn't enchanted with the road atmosphere in 2017
 Photo by Kevin C. Cox | Getty Images

The Top-16 reveal is less than 2 weeks away and we will have a bracket in a little over a month. Before we get to the S-Curve, let's think about location. Knowing the seven locations Marquette could open NCAA play at (as host they cannot play at Fiserv Forum) we decided to look at which locations are most likely, which are most desirable, and what circumstances would bring Marquette to one of those locations.

Placement occurs by assigning the seeds in order of their most desired location. So the top overall seed gets the spot closest to their campus, the second overall seed gets the closest to their campus, and it continues like this based on available spots. Only two seeded teams (top-4 seeds) can play at each location, so once the most desirable spots are filled, teams are farmed out further away from home. We're going to work under the assumption that Marquette will go no higher than a 2-seed and no lower than an 8-seed, assuming the bottom completely falls out. In addition, as Marquette is hosting, the NCAA tries to keep teams from playing games on the same day they host, meaning Marquette is most likely to play at one of the Thursday/Saturday sites, though this is not a hard and fast rule.

1) Buffalo, NY -- KeyBank Center (Thursday/Saturday)

Most Likely Seeds: Providence

Desirability Rank: 2

I feel that Buffalo is the most likely destination for Marquette. This is also a highly desirable spot. First, Providence is the only likely seeded team that has Buffalo as first choice, so it allows Big East fans to team up. It's also the third closest to Milwaukee, so not terrible from a travel perspective. Also, as Buffalo will be one of the least desirable for other fanbases, it seems likely there won't be any significant road environment. This site is most likely going to have a pair of 4-seeds as their marquee teams, which would mean 50% of the teams on the 4/5 lines playing here, hence why it's our #1 on the list. Marquette would most likely land here as one of the last 4-seeds or as a 5-seed playing into a team like Tennessee or Michigan State.

2) Portland, OR -- Moda Center (Thursday/Saturday)

Most Likely Seeds: Gonzaga

Desirability Rank: 3

Gonzaga being here is a lock. Chisel it in stone now. However, as this location is far away from almost everyone else, there's a good chance if Marquette went here it would be as a 4-seed. No one else in the mix for a 5/6 is particularly close, so a road environment seems unlikely (though a 4 playing a hypothetical 12-seed Oregon in round two could suck). It's also possible a collapse could have Marquette in an 8/9 game playing into Gonzaga, but considering the remaining schedule that seems unlikely.

3) Pittsburgh, PA -- PPG Paints Arena (Friday/Sunday)

Most Likely Seeds: Villanova 

Desirability Rank: 1

If your immediate thought is "why a Friday/Sunday spot instead of the other Thursday/Saturdays" the reason is because the other Thursday/Saturday sites will almost certainly both include two teams on the top-2 seed lines, and given the remaining schedule Marquette is unlikely to fall to the 7/8 lines. This would be an awesome place to play because it's the second closest to campus and will likely have a large Big East contingent as Villanova is likely to land here. Marquette would likely come here if they could get up to the 13th or better overall seed (3/4 lines) or as a 5/6 playing into one of those teams. That said, this seems less likely than the first two because it's the same days Fiserv is hosting.

4) Greenville, SC -- Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Friday/Sunday)

Most Likely Seeds: Auburn, Duke 

Desirability Rank: 4

Auburn is a virtual lock to land here, and while there are a number of teams for whom this might be the closest remaining spot when their number comes up, it feels like Duke will be here. That means almost certain road crowds in at least one, if not both opening weekend games. But on the upside, the weather should be nice and having a chance to end Coach K's career could be an eternal Trivial Pursuit answer we'd never forget. Marquette would only land here if they were in the 6-8 seed range. Like Pittsburgh, I don't think this is highly likely because Fiserv hosts the same day.

5) Indianapolis, IN -- Gainbridge Fieldhouse (Thursday/Saturday)

Most Likely Seeds: Purdue, Kentucky 

Desirability Rank: 5

I feel like this location screams "it's a trap" for Marquette fans. Yes, it is the closest to Marquette's campus, but both Purdue and Kentucky (currently projected as top-two seeds) also have this as first choice. That means if Marquette lands here, they are most likely a 6-seed at best and will have to face one of those monster front courts to advance. I know it's close, but for me Indy is a hard pass as it likely means Marquette has fallen to the 7/8 lines.

6) Fort Worth, TX -- Dickies Arena (Thursday/Saturday)

Most Likely Seeds: Kansas, Baylor, Houston 

Desirability Rank: 6

With apologies to Joe McCann, this is not the kind of spot Marquette should be hoping for. There are a ton of teams fighting for seeding (Texas Tech and Texas also have this as option #1) that would create a road environment no matter which region Marquette was in. In addition, the heavy Big 12 contingent might root against Shaka Smart's team no matter the circumstance. Add in that Marquette only comes here as a 7/8 seed and this is one location I'm glad feels unlikely.

7) San Diego, CA -- Viejas Arena (Friday/Sunday)

Most Likely Seeds: Arizona, UCLA

Desirability Rank: 4

I don't think it's very likely Marquette will play into UCLA since we saw them in the regular season (same goes for Illinois) so the only likely way we land here is playing into Arizona, which means most likely a 7/8 seed. If the Wildcats slip back to a 3, this location becomes more likely. It would also feature likely road environments, but the upside is a weekend in San Diego, and after a long winter that's always a win. Decent location, but I would be surprised if it happens, especially as it's on the same days Fiserv hosts.

Let's get to the updated S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-GONZAGA 2-AUBURN 3-PURDUE 4-KANSAS

2-Seeds: 8-HOUSTON 7-Kentucky 6-ARIZONA 5-Baylor

3-Seeds: 9-VILLANOVA 10-Texas Tech 11-Duke 12-Wisconsin

4-Seeds: 16-Providence 15-Tennessee 14-Ucla 13-Illinois

5-Seeds: 17-Marquette 18-Michigan State 19-Ohio State 20-Alabama

6-Seeds: 24-Iowa State 23-Xavier 22-St. Mary's 21-Texas

7-Seeds: 25-Connecticut 26-Lsu 27-Arkansas 28-WYOMING

8-Seeds: 32-MURRAY STATE 31-Colorado State 30-Boise State 29-Usc

9-Seeds: 33-Seton Hall 34-Indiana 35-Tcu 36-LOYOLA CHICAGO

10-Seeds: 40-Byu 39-Iowa 38-DAVIDSON 37-San Francisco

11-Seeds: 41-Oregon 42-Notre Dame 43-Creighton 44-Wake Forest

12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-UAB 48-West Virginia 47-Kansas State 46-Belmont 45-Miami

13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-NEW MEXICO STATE 53-TOLEDO 54-WAGNER

14-Seeds: 58-TOWSON 57-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 56-OAKLAND 55-VERMONT

15-Seeds: 59-PRINCETON 60-SOUTH ALABAMA 61-LIBERTY 62-MONTANA STATE

16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS STATE 67-NORFOLK STATE 66-TEXAS SOUTHERN 65-LONGWOOD 64-NAVY 63-UC IRVINE

 

Last Four Byes: Oregon, Notre Dame, Creighton, Wake Forest

Last Four In: Miami, Belmont, Kansas State, West Virginia

First Four Out: Oklahoma, San Diego State, VCU, Stanford

Next Four Out: North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Mississippi State

Multibid Leagues

Big 12: 8

Big East: 7

Big 10: 7

SEC:6

ACC: 4

Pac-12: 4

WCC: 4

MWC: 3

OVC: 2

Oh nothing, just a casual sweep of a top 15 program in the country

Only one game this week, must not be much #mubb to talk about, right? Wrong! Any time you sweep Villanova it is cause for conversation. Then, while we never tire of heaping them on this team, we are running out of superlative's to say about this squad so we decide to look ahead to the tournament and what fate has in store for our intrepid warriors. This leads to a floor/ceiling conversation as we try to be reasonable while also being absolutely giddy. We close out with our concerns for the week ahead and #mubbTMM. Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/jxep2j/ScrambledEggs_Editted_020622.mp3

Weekend Viewing Guide

 It's okay, Marquette Basketball will be back soon!
Photo by Mark Hoffman | Milwaukee Journal Sentinel

It's a basketball weekend without Marquette, but that doesn't mean there aren't game that could impact Marquette's future. Cracked Sidewalks has your look at the most important games of the weekend for the Golden Eagles NCAA odds so you know who to cheer for.

We're looking at three factors when we consider these games. First is seeding and teams directly in competition with Marquette. Second is how their result helps us to a Big East title and the easiest path through MSG. Third is impact on Marquette's resume from a NET perspective. Highlighted games are the ones of greatest import and will get some extra commentary.

Friday, February 4

St. Bonaventure at Richmond, 5:00 pm, ESPN2

Creighton at Seton Hall, 6:00 pm, FS1

The Bonnies getting a road win would likely move them back into Quadrant 2, which would remove Marquette's only current loss outside Quadrants 1+2. Removing this blemish would really help if Marquette wants to get to protected seed territory.

Saturday, February 5

Connecticut at Villanova, 11:00 am, Fox

Illinois at Indiana, 11:00 am, ESPN

Tennessee at South Carolina, 12:00 pm, CBS

Texas Tech at West Virginia, 1:00 pm, ESPN

Iowa State at Texas, 1:00 pm, Longhorn Network

DePaul at Xavier, 1:00 pm, FS1

Mississippi at Florida, 2:30 pm, SEC Network

Michigan State at Rutgers, 3:00 pm, FS1

USC at Arizona, 4:00 pm, Fox

Penn State at UW-Madison, 5:00 pm, Big 10 Network

LSU at Vanderbilt, 5:00 pm, SEC Network

Kentucky at Alabama, 7:00 pm, ESPN

Loyola Marymount at St. Mary's, 9:00 pm, CBSSN

This should keep you occupied on Saturday. Start your day cheering for UConn at Villanova. This one is tough because 'Nova represents two of Marquette's best wins, but it's not impossible for MU to pass them on the S-Curve and a 'Nova loss gets them to 4 losses, improving our Big East title hopes while MU can hand UConn a fourth Big East loss themselves on Tuesday. West Virginia is a double help as they could hurt a team ahead of us while also boosting our resume. Penn State beating UW-Madison would hurt our resume a little, but would also allow MU to creep closer to Bucky on the S-Curve. Besides, isn't it just more natural to root against the Badgers?

Sunday, February 6th

Providence at Georgetown, 11:00 am, FS1

Maryland at Ohio State, 12:00 pm, CBS

Houston at Cincinnati, 5:00 pm, ESPN2

If Marquette has any dreams of a Big East crown, Providence needs to take losses. Villanova has the opportunity to hand them a pair, which would be a big help, but they need at least one more if Marquette wants to pass them (and even then we need to win out) so why not Georgetown? Houston seems unlikely to fall too far, but if they take a couple losses, their resume will start to look very thin in a hurry. The Cougars only have 3 opportunities at Q1 wins and this is one of them. If they were to lose a couple, they could easily tumble down past a (hopefully) surging Marquette.

One more note. Marquette is close enough to the teams in front of them (Providence and Tennessee) that if those two were to lose, Marquette would move up to the 4-line next week. While Cracked Sidewalks isn't quite ready to move Shaka's team to the 4-line, we've seen some other prominent bracketologists have them that high (Delphi and Dave Ommen, among others) so it isn't crazy to start thinking about a protected seed. But for now, on with the S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-AUBURN 2-GONZAGA 3-BAYLOR 4-PURDUE

2-Seeds: 8-DUKE 7-Ucla 6-ARIZONA 5-Kansas

3-Seeds: 9-Kentucky 10-VILLANOVA 11-HOUSTON 12-Texas Tech

4-Seeds: 16-Tennessee 15-Illinois 14-Michigan State 13-Wisconsin

5-Seeds: 17-Providence 18-Marquette 19-Alabama 20-Lsu

6-Seeds: 24-Iowa State 23-Ohio State 22-Xavier 21-Connecticut

7-Seeds: 25-Usc 26-St. Mary's 27-Texas 28-Tcu

8-Seeds: 32-Colorado State 31-Indiana 30-BOISE STATE 29-Arkansas

9-Seeds: 33-Wyoming 34-MURRAY STATE 35-Seton Hall 36-San Francisco

10-Seeds: 40-Creighton 39-DAVIDSON 38-Byu 37-LOYOLA CHICAGO

11-Seeds: 41-North Carolina 42-Iowa 43-Miami 44-San Diego State

12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-UAB 48-Belmont 47-West Virginia 46-Oklahoma 45-Oregon

13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-NEW MEXICO STATE 53-TOLEDO 54-WAGNER

14-Seeds: 58-TOWSON 57-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 56-OAKLAND 55-VERMONT

15-Seeds: 59-PRINCETON 60-SOUTH ALABAMA 61-LIBERTY 62-WEBER STATE

16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS STATE 67-NORFOLK STATE 66-TEXAS SOUTHERN 65-LONGWOOD 64-NAVY 63-UC IRVINE

 

Last Four Byes: North Carolina, Iowa, Miami, San Diego State

Last Four In: Oregon, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Belmont

First Four Out: Wake Forest, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Florida

Next Four Out: Michigan, SMU, VCU, Dayton

Non-Con Check In

Kam Jones led Marquette to a potential Q1 win over Kansas State
 Photo by Peter Aiken | Getty Images

As the calendar turns to February and the NCAA season stretch run, it's a good time to check in on Marquette's non-conference opponents. Let's go one-by-one, including only D1 games. For those not wanting to dig into all the games, I highlighted the two most important teams to watch. St. Bonaventure because they look most likely to fall into Bad Loss territory and Kansas State who has the chance to solidify themselves as a Quadrant 1 win.

SIU-Edwardsville (5-15/1-8 OVC, 280 NET, Quadrant 4) -- While the Cougars are firmly entrenched in Quadrant 4, their NET and Kenpom ranks are more than 50 spots better than their previous 3-year averages. The record isn't great, but they've been competitive and aren't the SOS drag they typically are. In the preseason, we projected them to have top-275 upside and Brian Barone has delivered almost exactly that.

New Hampshire (6-8/3-4 America East, 252 NET, Quadrant 4) -- The Wildcats metrics are ahead of their three year averages and only slightly behind preseason projections, but for a team hoping to compete for the top-half of the league, this has been a disappointment. They were flirting with Quadrant 3 before taking a few questionable losses. We were right that they were feisty at the Fiserv, but the rest of the season hasn't delivered as successfully.

Illinois (15-5/8-2 Big 10, 15 NET, Quadrant 1A) -- This win has aged well. The Illini are Q1A on any floor and tied atop the Big 10. This win is one of the main reasons Marquette is comfortably in the field currently. Only 10 teams in the country have Q1A non-conference wins at home. Marquette took advantage of a great non-con opportunity. This is the second best win on the resume, after the road win at Villanova, which is the only top-5 true road win any team has currently.

Mississippi (11-10/2-6 SEC, 116 NET, Quadrant 3) -- Ole Miss was angling toward Q2 before losing to Samford, then losing team leader Jarkel Joiner for all but 6 minutes of their current 3-6 stretch. Their schedule doesn't get any easier either. Best case scenario, maybe Ole Miss rallies and makes the NIT, but more likely they remain mired in Q3 and finish near the bottom of the SEC.

West Virginia (13-8/2-6 Big 12, 61 NET 64, Quadrant 2A) -- Our first S-Curve had the Mountaineers comfortably in the field as a 6-seed, but times, they are a-changing. Huggs' team has lost 6 straight and in the rugged Big 12 are projected by Kenpom to lose their next NINE games. They will likely find a way to win a few of those, but are very much in real danger of falling off the bubble. Their schedule is a murderer's row and six straight losses by an average of 11.8 points doesn't inspire confidence. This is a decent resume win that should stay in Quadrant 2, but isn't the solid Q1 victory it appeared to be back in November.

St. Bonaventure (12-5/4-2 A-10, 99 NET, Quadrant 2B) -- After this game, it looked clear like one team was heading for a single-digit seed while the other would be hoping to stay in the bubble conversation. Two months later and the roles have reversed. The problem for the Bonnies is four of their five losses are by double digits, including a 37 point mutilation at the hands of Virginia Tech. Their non-con wins over Marquette and Boise give them enough quality that an at-large isn't completely out of reach, but the margin for error has shrunk. This is a game to keep an eye on as it is the most likely game to fall to "bad loss" territory as the Bonnies have been in and out of the top-100 cutoff that separates Quadrants 2 and 3.

Northern Illinois (5-13/2-6 MAC, 293 NET, Quadrant 4) -- The Huskies opened the season upsetting high-major Washington, but haven't seen much go right since then. Their only other non-con wins were over sub-340 Chicago State and Eastern Illinois. That said, while their conference record isn't great, they are keeping margins down and have slowly moved up the metrics. From a low of 325 in kenpom, they are flirting with the top-300 and, while not great, could certainly be worse. They aren't projected to win another game this season, so from this point on any additions to the W column are gravy.

Jackson State (4-16/2-7 SWAC, 290 NET, Quadrant 4) -- The Tigers lost starters Gabe Watson and Isaiah Williams and haven't been the team we expected. Jayveous McKinnis has been dominant, averaging a double-double in league play, but the rest of the team hasn't delivered and the league favorites find themselves one spot above the bottom of the standings. Certainly not what you hope for when you bring in a team that went undefeated in league play the year before and returning its best player.

UW-Madison (17-3/8-2 Big 10, 21 NET, Quadrant 1A) -- The Badgers have been one of the surprises of the season with Johnny Davis among the front-runners for National Player of the Year as they are tied with Illinois atop the Big 10 standings. While luck has certainly played a part (9-1 in games decided by 6 or fewer points) they are in the mix for a protected seed and won't be a loss that hurts Marquette in March, other than emotionally.

Kansas State (10-10/2-6 Big 12, 75 NET, Quadrant 1B) -- This game has bounced back and forth between Quadrants 1 and 2. K-State has been better than expected in terms of results, including wins over Texas Tech and Texas, but like West Virginia is likely to finish near the bottom of the league and out of the field. The best case for Marquette is if K-State can keep margins close enough to stay in Q1. As 5 of their last 8 losses are by 3 points are fewer, for the most part they've been doing just that.

UCLA (16-2/8-1 Pac-12, 10 NET, Quadrant 1A) -- The Bruins are atop the Pac-12 and look likely to earn a protected seed, with a 1-seed not out of the realm of possibility, especially if they can upset Arizona on Thursday. This is a perfectly acceptable resume loss and one the Selection Committee won't look twice at, even at home.

Let's check out the latest S-Curve:

1-Seeds: 1-AUBURN 2-GONZAGA 3-BAYLOR 4-PURDUE

2-Seeds: 8-VILLANOVA 7-Ucla 6-ARIZONA 5-Kansas

3-Seeds: 9-DUKE 10-Wisconsin 11-HOUSTON 12-Kentucky

4-Seeds: 16-Connecticut 15-Lsu 14-Texas Tech 13-Michigan State

5-Seeds: 17-Illinois 18-Tennessee 19-Providence 20-Alabama

6-Seeds: 24-Iowa State 23-Marquette 22-Ohio State 21-Xavier

7-Seeds: 25-Usc 26-Texas 27-St. Mary's 28-Tcu

8-Seeds: 32-Colorado State 31-Arkansas 30-MURRAY STATE 29-BOISE STATE

9-Seeds: 33-Byu 34-Indiana 35-Miami 36-Wyoming

10-Seeds: 40-North Carolina 39-San Francisco 38-LOYOLA CHICAGO 37-Seton Hall

11-Seeds: 41-San Diego State 42-Iowa 43-Oklahoma 44-Creighton 45-Oregon

12-Seeds: 50-IONA 49-UAB 48-DAVIDSON 47-Belmont 46-West Virginia

13-Seeds: 51-CHATTANOOGA 52-NEW MEXICO STATE 53-TOLEDO 54-OAKLAND

14-Seeds: 58-TOWSON 57-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 56-WAGNER 55-VERMONT

15-Seeds: 59-PRINCETON 60-SOUTH ALABAMA 61-LIBERTY 62-WEBER STATE

16-Seeds: 68-NICHOLLS STATE 67-NORFOLK STATE 66-TEXAS SOUTHERN 65-LONGWOOD 64-NAVY 63-UC IRVINE

Last Four Byes: North Carolina, San Diego State, Iowa, Oklahoma

Last Four In: Creighton, Oregon, West Virginia, Belmont

First Four Out: Wake Forest, VCU, Mississippi State, Florida

Nest Four Out: Florida State, Notre Dame, Michigan, SMU

Multibid Leagues

Big 12: 8

Big East: 7

Big 10: 7

SEC: 6

MWC: 4

Pac-12: 4

WCC: 4

ACC: 3

OVC: 2

It was a good run, let's start another

We're back to talk about #mubb and for the first time in a while we have to talk about a loss. We talk about the victory over Seton Hall and break down the loss to Providence. Does this loss introduce any doubts for us or leave us concerned about the direction of this season? Definitely not, but we've got to talk about it. Then we turn to the rematch against Nova, and spend some time with it as it's the only game for MU on the schedule this week. Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/c75vsd/ScrambledEggs_Editted_013022.mp3