Notre Dame Preview, 2022-23

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

December 11, 2022, South Bend, IN

Head Coach: Mike Brey (472-259 at Notre Dame, 571-310 overall)

Three-Year NET Average: 64.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 60.0

Projected 2022-23 T-Rank: 32

Projected Starters: PG Trey Wertz (6'5" RS Sr), SG J.J. Starling (6'4" Fr), SF Cormac Ryan (6'5" RS Sr), PF Dane Goodwin (6'6" RS Sr), C Nate Laszewski (6'10" RS Sr)

Nate Laszewski allows Notre Dame to play five-out

Photo by Matt Cashore | USA Today Sports

After a fantastic run of 9 NCAA bids in 11 years, fans in South Bend were starting to wonder if Mike Brey had lost a step. The Irish hadn't had a tourney caliber team in four years and the "Fire Brey" chants started even before the 3-4 start to 2021-22. Then the Irish pulled one of the shockers of the season, knocking off Kentucky, and followed that up with a 15-5 ACC record, good enough for second place albeit in a depleted league, and made it back to the NCAA Tournament, where they beat Rutgers and Alabama and were two minutes from the Sweet 16 before a Texas Tech late comeback ended their season.

Brey's resurgence was largely down to freshman star Blake Wesley, who departed for the NBA. However while the back court of Wesley and Prentiss Hubb is gone, the entire front court of Cormac Ryan, Dane Goodwin, and Nate Laszewski are back. All three are high efficiency scoring options that connected on over 40% of their three point attempts. They are joined by another stud freshman, five-star J.J. Starling, who is more multi-dimensional than Wesley was as not just a scorer but a distributor as well. The biggest question mark is at the point, where Marcus Hammond will get the first crack. While he averaged 18.1 ppg last year, it was for Niagara so he'll have to adjust to high-major competition. If he doesn't work out, Starling may have to shift over because Brey's roster is heavy on wings and bigs but thin in the back court. Freshman forward Ven-Allen Lubin is pushing for a starting spot and would provide rebounding and defense. Sharpshooter Trey Wertz should also be in the rotation and could pick up slack if Hammond isn't ready.

Offensively, Brey's teams might be best described as meticulous. They have been top-100 in Assist Rate in 19 of his 22 seasons in South Bend. Add in that he hasn't had a team rank outside the top-60 in turnover rate since 1998 and the formula is pretty simple. His teams work the pass, grinding down the shot clock and finding the open shooter, and do so without making mistakes. Considering this team is made up of long players that can absolutely throw flames from deep with immense patience, they are a matchup nightmare. Consider this: Notre Dame ranked 16th nationally in three-point percentage last year largely because of the six players that took 60+ long-range attempts. The four returners shot a combined 43.4% from deep and the two that departed shot 30.8%. With that in mind, they should be even better from deep. That said, they aren't without weaknesses. When they do miss, they are terrible offensive rebounding team (#335 nationally was even worse than Marquette's #325) and they don't get to the line often. Then there is the defense. Brey has never had a top-40 defense and his teams average defensive rank was 113.6 over the past decade. A pair of defensive-minded assistants joined the staff last year and started mixing in some 2/3 zone as a changeup, but this is still a team that wins on the offensive end.

Looking at 2022-23, Notre Dame simply has too much firepower to not be in contention for an NCAA bid. They can't afford many injuries but if they stay healthy, they should be a top-half ACC team and in the mix to play in the tourney once again. How far they go will likely come down to Starling. They have a consistent, experienced rotation around him but last year it was the consistent scoring option of Wesley that put them over the top. While they are efficient, none of their returning players are the high usage types that you expect to carry a tourney caliber team. Starling needs to be that guy for Notre Dame to reach their potential. As far as Marquette goes, this will be one of the toughest games of non-con play. It's a true road game against an experienced team with NCAA aspirations. If Marquette can get this one, it would go a long way toward building an NCAA-worthy resume.

What We've Learned: The Irish have been a tough team to figure out. They struggled mightily with their buy game opponents, starting 5-0 by a relatively narrow average margin of 7.8 ppg. After being upset by St. Bonaventure, they returned home to throttle then-20th ranked Michigan State only to follow it up with a loss to a bad Syracuse team. This is a very thin team, playing only 6 players in most games, though the return of Marcus Hammond gives them a little more depth and they'll likely go 7 deep on Sunday. Their starters all average 32+ mpg. Notre Dame also hasn't faced a high-level team that plays at pace, with Tempo #270 St. Bonaventure the fastest team of their tougher competition, so Marquette's top-50 tempo could be a bit of a shock. Stylistically, this team is what we expected. Grind down the pace, don't turn it over, shoot a ton of threes. Defensively, they aren't very good, but they have been great limiting second chances and not fouling, which has allowed them to survive with a miniscule bench. If not for that MSU result, this would look like a game Marquette would handle relatively easily, despite the venue. But considering how Marquette has dealt with slow-paced games (1-3 when playing fewer than 70 possessions) and just how decisively Notre Dame defeated Michigan State, it likely comes down to which Irish team shows up.

Marquette Connection: When Proviso East star Glenn Rivers chose Marquette over Notre Dame, he became the first McDonald's All-American in school history. However it wasn't that choice that cemented his legacy in Marquette vs Notre Dame lore. Digger Phelps brought his #5-ranked Irish to the Mecca on January 10, 1981. Despite being heavy underdogs, Dean Marquardt couldn't miss for Marquette, going 6/6 from the floor. That performance kept Marquette in the game and Michael Wilson forced a late tie-up and jump ball with the score tied at 52. Notre Dame won that tip, but lost the ball out of bounds. With just one second on the clock, Wilson fired an inbound pass to a streaking Rivers, who took one step and fired up a desperation 30-foot heave that banked in and secured the 54-52 victory.

NC Central Preview, 2022-23

NC-Central Eagles

December 6, 2022, Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: LeVelle Moton (228-172)

Three-Year NET Average: 258.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 295.7

Projected 2022-23 T-Rank: 290

Projected Starters: PG Eric Boone (6'2" RS Sr), SG Justin Wright (6'1" Jr), SF Marque Maultsby (6'3" Sr), PF Kris Monroe (6'8" RS Sr), C Brendan Medley-Bacon (7'1" Sr)

Justin Wright hopes to lift NC Central back to the top of the MEAC

Photo from NC Central Athletics

After a string of three straight tourney bids was broken by COVID, the Eagles limped through an illness-plagued 2020-21 season. Thankfully for LeVelle Moton, the team rebounded to a 16-15 finish last year and a third-place finish in the MEAC. While they were a pedestrian shooting team that turned it over too much, they made up for that by hammering the glass and living at the free throw line, while also applying the high-pressure, turnover-generating defense Moton is known for. With three of the top-four scorers back, they look to build on last season's rebound.

Leading the way will be Eric Boone (9.7 ppg/3.7 apg) and Justin Wright (13.7 ppg/4.3 rpg) in the back court. Boone creates shots almost as easily as he forces turnovers while Wright is an efficient, multi-level scorer, and both are highly adept at getting to the free throw line. They are joined by Devin Butts, a sharpshooting former Mississippi State recruit who arrives from the JUCO ranks. Up front, Kris Monroe was a double-digit scorer a year ago who exploded after transferring down from Providence. Brandon Medley-Bacon is the first seven-footer Moton has had in 14 years at NC Central (per kenpom). He's been most effective living in the paint, protecting the rim, eating up boards, and finishing inside the paint. Their bench has a number of options, with Devin Gordon (11.2 ppg at MVSU), Marque Maltsby (spot starter last year), and Ja'Darius Harris (10.6 ppg as a JUCO) leading the way off a deep bench.

The Eagles start their approach with defense. They apply heavy ball pressure on the perimeter, which allows their ballhawking guards like Boone to generate turnovers and transition opportunities. They are aggressive in closing out on shots, but at their best when they have true rim protectors, which makes Medley-Bacon key to their approach. Moton's defenses have ranked in the top-100 at kenpom twice, and those were also the only two times they ranked in the top-100 in block rate. Look for heavy minutes from BMB. On offense, they need to improve their shooting, and the additions should help with that. When not in transition, his teams slow the pace and live on the interior, getting heavy percentages of points from inside the arc and at the line. Look for this team to funnel more through Wright and Monroe, with shooters like Butts and Gordon providing spacing for the team to work. When all else fails, Monroe and BMB should be capable of getting putbacks and, along with the aggressive guard tandem, drawing fouls and continuing to live at the line.

After a disastrous 2020-21, last year was a return to respectability for NC Central. This year they hope to be where LeVelle Moton typically has them, in contention for a conference title and NCAA bid. The Eagles aren't a real threat to pull a November upset, as Moton has never defeated a top-100 team according to kenpom, but once MEAC play rolls around they will be one of the toughest outs in their league. If you ignore 2020-21, NC Central has consistently been one of better opponents from a MEAC/SWAC level league out there. This should be a comfortable win for Marquette while hopefully being less of a drag on the schedule than some of the other guarantee game opponents.

What We've Learned: Marque Maultsby has taken the starting role we expected Devin Butts to occupy, but both are rotational 2/3 players currently. According to T-Rank, NC Central has played like the #210 team so far based on current season data alone, a number that places them at the top of the MEAC so far. They have wins over decent Gardner-Webb and UNC-Asheville teams. NC-Central has yet to win away from home, going 0-4. The duo of Wright (15.3 ppg/2.8 apg) and Boone (10.9 ppg/5.6 apg) has been efficient and effective. The Eagles are a dangerous buy opponent because they have been great shooting from deep (40.6% is 13th nationally) and so far they are 5-1 against the spread, including winning twice outright as an underdog. Marquette will be heavy favorites, but don't be surprised if this looks more like the Radford game (a team NC Central came within 2 points of on the road) than LIU.

Marquette Connection: While LeVelle Moton is a dismal 0-39 against teams that finished in the kenpom top-100, that doesn't mean he hasn't come close. On December 29, 2012, his team was deadlocked at 60 with six minutes to play against a Marquette team that not only finished in the top-100, but went to the Elite Eight that season. NC Central stayed in the game largely because Junior Cadougan and Jamil Wilson combined for more turnovers (11) than field goal attempts (8). Vander Blue led the way with 16 points and Todd Mayo came up big late as Marquette escaped with a 75-66 victory. And after struggling with the Eagles, Marquette won their next three against UConn, Georgetown, and Pittsburgh to start their Big East Championship campaign.

UW-Madison Preview, 2022-23

UW-Madison Badgers

December 3, 2022, Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Greg Gard (144-78)

Three-Year NET Average: 23.7

Three-Year kenpom Average: 24.3

2022-23 Projected T-Rank: 64

Projected Starters: PG Chucky Hepburn (6'2" So), SG Max Klesmit (6'4" Jr), SF Jordan Davis (6'4" Jr), PF Tyler Wahl (6'9" Sr), C Steven Crowl (7'0" Jr)

Madison fans hope Chucky Hepburn can be their next breakout star

Photo by Mark Hoffman | JS Online

For a team picked 10th in the Big 10, winning a share of the Big 10 title behind breakout star Johnny Davis was a massive overachievement in Madison. While they never impressed the computers like Badger teams of the past have, they found ways to win close games and earned a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament before being upset in the second round by Iowa State. For much of the year, it seemed like Davis was a get out of jail free card for those close games, using his shot making and excellent rebounding abilities to tear victory from the jaws of defeat time and time again. However Davis and back court mate Brad Davison are gone, leaving UW to figure things out without their top-two scorers from a year ago.

How they address that starts with Chucky Hepburn. While he had freshman inconsistency early on, he started to put it together in the second half of the season. In UW-Madison's last 17 games per T-Rank, he improved his efficiency (95.1 to 103.8), three-point shooting (28.3% to 42.1%), assist rate (11.7 to 16.6), and turnover rate (17.9 to 12.3). If Hepburn can build on those numbers, he could be one of the best guards in a league better known for bigs. He's joined by Wofford transfer Max Klesmit. The Neenah native was an effective scorer (14.9 ppg), though his efficiency took a hit against higher level competition so it may be a difficult initial transition to the Badger schedule. Jordan Davis will likely get the first crack at replacing his brother, but he was minimally used in his first two years in Madison and will see competition for minutes from Green Bay transfer Kamari McGee and freshman Connor Essegian. Up front, Tyler Wahl could be the other Badger poised for a breakout. He has steadily improved his efficiency along with his minutes and usage in his time in Madison. Steven Crowl will man the middle and looks like another prototypical Madison big. He needs to improve his rebounding, but has already shown some ability to stretch the floor and create matchup problems.

In terms of style, expect a return to UW-Madison slow-down basketball. Last year's team played at 66.5 possessions, their fastest tempo of the kenpom era. Much of that was Gard getting his system out of the way to let Johnny Davis do his thing. In games played at 71 or more possessions, the Badgers went 6-1. One of the biggest reasons for that success was virtually never turning the ball over, though their #2 national turnover ranking was largely driven by how good Davis (#300 nationally) and Davison (#15) were at ball control. Without them, expect a return to the deliberate pace in order to control the ball and a heavy dose of three point attempts to maximize scoring output in low possession games. They'll concede the offensive glass and free throws, but on the other end will keep the glass clean and defend without fouling, sticking in man with few switches to force teams deep into the shot clock.

Predictions have UW-Madison in the bottom half of the Big 10 this year. But after making 22 of the last 23 NCAA Tournaments, writing this team off early is a mistake. Hepburn is ready to make a jump, they have capable shooters at five positions, and a return to their slow-down style will provide headaches for opponents. Wahl and Crowl give them an efficient if unspectacular front court. Add in what looks like a down Big 10 and the Badgers will likely finish in the top-6 of their league and make the NCAA Tournament as a single-digit seed. If anything could trip this team up, it would be injuries. There's no one proven behind Wahl and Crowl up front and none of the bench options have shown reliable high-major contributions before. Even still, for now pencil them into a boring but respectable finish.

What We've Learned: Bucky has top-100 wins over Stanford, Dayton, and USC, and nearly knocked off Kansas, falling by one point in overtime. They've done that mostly behind a solid defense, though how sustainable that is when opponents are making just 23.4% of their three-pointers is questionable. Offensively, they have slowed the pace back down but aside from not turning it over, aren't doing anything particularly well. Tyler Wahl has taken over the alpha role, albeit inefficiently. The real breakout player has been freshman Connor Essegian, who's making 54.2% of his thees and has become a microwave scorer off the bench. He was the difference maker in the Atlantis MTE, where he averaged 14 ppg/3.8 rpg in leading the Badgers to those Dayton and USC wins and the close-but-not-quite against Kansas. He has the look of a player Badger opponents are going to hate for the next four years.

Marquette Connection: Marquette celebrates the 20th anniversary of the 2003 Final Four season this year, which would include the 63-54 victory over UW-Madison. It was a close first half with the Badgers leading 29-28 at the break, but Todd Townsend hit a series of big threes to secure the lead in the second half and Dwyane Wade closed things out as he paced all scorers with 25 points. It was also the first win for Marquette over a Bo Ryan coached Badger team. Here's hoping the 2022-23 result is just as satisfying.

Baylor Preview, 2022-23

Baylor Bears

November 29, 2022, Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Scott Drew (399-222 at Baylor, 419-233 overall)

Three-Year NET Average: 4.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 3.0

2022-23 T-Rank Projection: 2

Projected Starters: PG Adam Flagler (6'3" Sr), SG L.J. Cryer (6'1" Jr), SF Keyontae George (6'5" Fr), PF Jalen Bridges (6'7" Jr), C Flo Thamba (6'10" RS Sr)

Adam Flagler helped Baylor to the 2021 National Championship

Photo by Jamie Schwaberow | Getty Images

After winning the National Championship behind a loaded back court of Davion Mitchell, Jared Butler, and MaCio Teague, the expectation was that Baylor would take a step back in 2021-22. Instead, they opened the season 15-0, working their way up to the #1 AP ranking in January. They lost a handful of games, but still managed to share the Big 12 title with eventual National Champions Kansas and earned a 1-seed in the NCAA Tournament. In the second round, they fell behind by 25 to North Carolina before rallying to force overtime, but ultimately lost the game. While they lost four of the top six scorers from that team, what they return coupled with their new additions have most people expecting them to be a national title contender once again.

Baylor's attack starts with their excellent back court. Flagler and Cryer both averaged over 13 points per game last year, though neither is a true point guard. Freshman Keyontae George is a potential lottery pick with electric scoring ability and top-notch athleticism on the wing. Up front, West Virginia transfer Jalen Bridges is a versatile defender whose length gives opponents problems and whose shot-making allows Baylor to regularly play four-out. In the middle, Flo Thamba won't be much of an offensive threat, but he eats space, cleans the glass, and is a solid rim protector. The Bears also boast depth, with Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua serving as a defensive ace while former five-star guard Langston Love provides talent in the back court, though both are coming off injuries and may not be at full strength to start the season.

Scott Drew has transformed Baylor. There's simply no other way to describe what Baylor was before he arrived and the absolute juggernaut they are today. How do they do it? On offense, they surround their bigs with a plethora of shooters that spread opponents out and exploit ball screens. When they miss, they relentlessly attack the offensive glass, ranking in the top-10 each of the past nine years. On defense, they have shifted away from a zone/man mix and adopted much of the No-Middle Defense popularized by Texas Tech. The Bears have numerous switchable defenders that are elite at forcing attacking players away from screens and keeping them out of the middle of the court. They rely on their athletic wing defenders to stay in front of their man. They switch less than a team like Texas Tech, which makes them less vulnerable to open threes, but the early shot clock three is still one of the best ways to attack them. This will be one of the biggest tests of the year for Marquette's shooters and the pick and roll effectiveness of Tyler Kolek particularly.

So will Baylor be a monster once again? It likely comes down to staying healthy. They have the right mix of talent and experience, but Cryer, Love, and Flagler are coming off injuries while Tchamwa Tchatchoua and Love may not be ready to go when they come to Milwaukee in late November. They will certainly be a good team, but last year it was injuries that likely cost them that game against North Carolina and it remains to be seen how strongly everyone comes back. It's possible this is a team that will be more vulnerable in November and becomes a contender if they can get healthy as the year goes on, but even optimistic Marquette fans won't want to put this one in the win column until not just the final buzzer, but until you sleep on it and double-check the morning box score. Drew has turned Baylor into one of the best teams in the county year-in and year-out, and there's no reason to expect this year will be different.

What We've Learned: The offense is ready to go. Flagler, Cryer, and George are all averaging over 14 ppg on over 110 offensive rating. The Bears are #3 nationally in offensive eFG%, largely because they are taking a ton of threes (more than half of their field goals have been from deep) and making them at a great clip (38.5%) while continuing their rebounding tenacity (#20). Defense, on the other hand, has been less positive. The two main reasons seem to be a team that is foul prone and opponents that are making threes at a high rate. That second may be largely luck, as Virginia' 9/14 against Baylor is responsible for a 4% jump over the other 5 games they played. Neither Tchamwa Tchatchoua nor Love have played yet, so this is a bit of a short-handed team. This should be an entertaining, high-octane game between two teams that go fast on offense and are tenacious on defense.

Marquette Connection: The good news for Marquette fans is that head coach Shaka Smart has twice as many wins against Baylor in his career as Marquette does in its history. The bad news is that Marquette is just 1-1 against Baylor from a 1997-1998 home-and-home series while Shaka was a woeful 2-10 against Baylor in his six years at Texas. Smart won his first matchup with Drew in 2016, then didn't tally another victory until 2019. Suffice to say Drew has had his number and it would be satisfying to get a win against his old cross-state rival.

Chicago State Preview, 2022-23

Chicago State Cougars

November 26, 2022, Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Gerald Gillion (7-25)

Three-Year NET Average: 346.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 349.7

Projected 2022-23 T-Rank: 310

Projected Starters: PG Elijah Weaver (6'5" Sr), SG Bryce Johnson (6'3" So), SF Brent Davis (6'3" Jr), PF Wesley Cardet (6'6" So), C Jahsean Corbett (6'6" So)

 

Gerald Gillion led CSU to the most wins they've had since 2014-15

Photo from Twitter - @CoachGillion

Typically, a team going 7-25 and finishing #340 in kenpom isn't reason for celebration. But when you consider the Cougars had won seven games combined in the past three seasons and finished below #350 in each of them, it's a step in the right direction. Not only that, all seven wins came against D1 competition, matching the TOTAL number of D1 wins for the program in the previous SIX seasons. Simply put, in recent memory, Chicago State is one of the worst programs in Division I. However the 2021-22 crew started 2-0 and secured a win over New Mexico State in February, a team that would go on to beat UConn in the NCAA Tournament. How did they do it? They slowed the pace, took a ton of threes, and hammered the offensive glass. When it worked, the low tempo and high variability gave them a chance.

The Cougars have left the WAC and are going Independent in 2022-23. One of the drawbacks to that is that seven players who started at least one game last year have entered the transfer portal, including five of the top seven scorers. The two not included there are Bryce Johnson and Jahsean Corbett, a pair of sophomores that were pleasant surprises on last year's team. Elijah Weaver is a former top-50 recruit that was a rotation player at USC and Dayton before landing in Chicago. He's a versatile scorer and distributor that gives a talent boost to this team. Wesley Cardet is another former four-star prospect that started every game he played last year for Samford and came on strong in conference play. Up front, Arol Kacoul will likely be the anchor. The JUCO transfer isn't much of an offensive threat but provides length and rim protection to allow Corbett to play forward. Others to keep an eye on include Brent Davis, a transfer from The Citadel who had an erratic season but at his best scored 19 points against Duke at Cameron Indoor, and Taeyon Neal, a 6'9" 315 pound transfer who might give off some Davante Gardner vibes.

As mentioned above, the plan is pretty straight forward. Reduce possessions and take a ton of threes. The problem is that last year, Chicago State was a terrible shooting team (#331 in eFG%). Hitting the glass helped but when your team struggles to finish and lost its two best distributors and top-three long range threats, it's likely to be a struggle. Weaver and Cardet both help in terms of talent, but both were moderate usage, lower efficiency players previously so it's hard to say how they'll adapt to likely having to carry the load. Defensively, this is a team that really benefited from opponent mistakes. Per kenpom, they only ranked in the top-150 of one of the Four Factors/Miscellaneous Components, which was Non-Steal Turnover rate. Some of that could be a team good at drawing charges, but it's also likely in part due to teams just throwing the ball away or stepping out of bounds, often factors that are down to luck.

If Chicago State lives up to their T-Rank expectation, it would be their best result since 2013-14. But with as much turnover as they've had this offseason, it will take a lot going right for a second straight year to realize that potential. Ultimately, their roster is a mix of guys that couldn't cut it at higher levels, supporting cast on last year's team, and unproven newcomers. Gillion deserves a ton of credit for what he's already done, but even if this team overachieves they will be a bottom half of Quadrant 4 buy game. Even if Chicago State manages to slow the pace and make their threes, expect a double-digit home victory for Marquette.

What We've Learned: Gillion has been playing a lot of small ball. Arol Kacoul has started a few games but has taken a back seat once things get going to Jahsean Corbett. As a result, they often don't have anyone taller than 6'7" on the floor. The smaller lineup has allowed them to chase opponents off the line with more frequency. They are 22nd nationally in limiting three-point attempts and have taken more threes than their opponents in 5/7 games. As a team, they have also been very good on the offensive glass, led by Corbett. Their plan is still slow it down, take more threes than their opponent, and hit the offensive glass. However, while they have competed with lower class opponents, beating Valparaiso and IUPUI while being tied or leading Marshall and Cleveland State in the second half, they have not fared as well against top-100 opponents. Northwestern got out to a 9-0 start and led by 16 at halftime while Kent State opened up 15-0 and led by 31 at the half. Marquette's size and swarming defense should allow them to get up early on the Cougars and expect this one to be comfortably over by the end of the first half.

Marquette Connection: While this is a mismatched roster, there is one player who's taken on Marquette before. Elijah Weaver started for the USC Trojans against Marquette in the 2019 Orlando Classic. Weaver led the Trojans in minutes and was second in scoring as he tallied 12 points in the contest. He was significantly outshone by the star guard on the other end of the floor as Markus Howard poured in 51 points, which was the highest output of his senior season.

Utah Preview, 2022-23

Utah Utes

November 23, Fort Myers, FL

Head Coach: Craig Smith (11-18 at Utah, 236-126 overall)

Three-Year NET Average: 94.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 93.3

Projected 2022-23 T-Rank: 119

Projected Starters: PG Rollie Worster (6'4" Jr), SG Marco Anthony (6'5" RS Sr), SF Gabe Madsen (6'6" Jr), PF Lazar Stefanovic (6'7" So), C Branden Carlson (7'0" Sr)

Utah center Branden Carlson's length impacts both ends of the court

Photo by Rick Bowmer | AP Photo

Craig Smith is likely happy to put his first season in Salt Lake City behind him. While their 8-4 start was decent, the most impressive victory was over Fresno State and it was followed by a 10-game losing streak. They managed to avoid the Pac-12 basement due to Oregon State, but they were the only Pac-12 team to lose to the Beavers and they will certainly want to improve on their dismal start to the Smith era.

This Utah team does have some continuity from last year, returning four starters. Rollie Worster and Marco Anthony came with Smith from Utah State. While both took slight steps back in terms of scoring, they also had their most efficient seasons and will continue to run the offense. Lazar Stefanovic and Gabe Madsen both earned starts last year and are the two most prolific returning shooters in terms of threes made. If either of them isn't ready to go, former Badger Ben Carlson joined through the transfer portal and provides some length and experience to the front court. The real man to watch is the big body in the middle, Branden Carlson. He led the Utes in scoring a year ago and has the ability to not just score and clean the glass inside, but can also step out and hit the occasional three. The Utes also have some depth with transfers Mike Saunders (Cincinnati) and Gavin Baxter (BYU) giving Smith options while international freshmen Wilguens Exacte and Luka Tarlac provide some length.

In terms of what to expect, the Utes should be better on offense than last year's outfit. Smith's attack features a heavy dose of motion, cutting, and screening. His teams are consistently among the nation's best in assist rate. It's truly a team effort and expect there to be a wealth of guys averaging 7-8 points per game or more. They struggled on offense for two primary reasons last year. They simply didn't have shot makers and weren't as aggressive crashing the glass as his Utah State teams. Defensively, he prefers a system similar to Tony Bennett's pack line at Virginia. He has a number of solid man-to-man defenders well-versed in the system (Anthony spent two years at Virginia before joining Smith at USU) and the goal is to clog the middle and protect the paint. It worked better at Utah State because he had an elite shot blocker in Neemias Queta. Thus far, Branden Carlson hasn't proven as adept at that and as a team their rebounding came up short. It's possible Smith could change things up if it doesn't work this year; he radically changed from a driving, isolation offense at South Dakota to his motion/ball-movement heavy Utah State approach. At the moment, however, it looks like he might need to have a few more recruiting wins and time to develop before his roster can execute what he wants to do.

Returning five major rotation players and bringing in a number of transfers from quality programs should lead to improvement. Smith is a savvy coach who adapts to his roster and last year was the first time his team didn't outperform their preseason kenpom ranking. Getting to the middle of the Pac-12 and NIT mix would be considered a success after last season. The question is if there's enough there to get it done. Branden Carlson is a worthy high-major starter, but it would be a stretch to call him a star. Worster, Anthony, and Stefanovic are all probably fine as a team's fifth offensive option, but those are the options 2-4. The transfers are experienced, but that experience was gained coming off benches of comparable programs. None of these guys look like the types to move the dial individually. If Smith can get them sharing the ball and slowing the pace, maybe they can keep games close enough that someone will take those small steps up, but it looks like the Utes might still be a year or two away from being a truly competitive high-major team.

Marquette Connection: You can't mention Marquette and Utah without immediately thinking of Rick Majerus. After sitting next to Al McGuire for the 1974 Final Four and 1977 Championship, then continuing alongside Hank Raymonds, Majerus became Marquette's head coach in 1983. It was probably a bit too early for him as he never hit his stride here. After a year in the NBA and two at Ball State, Majerus took over Utah. The Utes went to 10 NCAA Tournaments in 15 seasons with Majerus at the helm, highlighted by a Final Four appearance and NCAA runner-up to Kentucky in 1998. After that game, Majerus quipped "When I die, they might as well bury me at the finish line at Churchill Downs so they can run over me again." He was inducted into the College Basketball Hall of Fame in 2019, primarily because of his excellent tenure at Utah, where he went 323-95 (.773 winning percentage) and additionally had an Elite Eight and two Sweet Sixteen runs. His finest stretch was from 1994-95 through 1998-99, in which Utah went a stunning 142-26, finishing in the top-20 of the AP Poll every year and the top-10 three times. If Marquette does take on Utah in Fort Myers, expect an in memoriam segment on Rick Majerus, a Marquette champion and Utah legend.

Georgia Tech Preview, 2022-23

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

November 23, Fort Myers, FL

Head Coach: Josh Pastner (94-96 at Georgia Tech, 261-169 overall)

Three-Year NET Average: 90.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 85.7

Projected 2022-23 T-Rank: 97

Projected Starters: PG Deivon Smith (6'1" Jr), SG Lance Terry (6'2" Sr), SF Kyle Sturdivant (6'2" Sr), PF Deebo Coleman (6'6" So), C Rodney Howard (6'10" Sr)

Deebo Coleman needs to jump from role-player to star

Photo by Mark Konezny | USA Today Sports

There was optimism in Atlanta after Mark Pastner won the 2021 ACC Tournament and brought the Yellow Jackets to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in his tenure. Opening 2021-22 with a buy game loss wasn't the best start. Things never really got right for this team, as they lost all their significant non-conference games and staggered to a 5-15 ACC record even in a down year for the league. From that team, Pastner loses his top-two scorers and finds himself with a worse roster on paper than the team that gave him the worst record of his career.

Georgia Tech optimism will be tied to their returnees. Deebo Coleman and Miles Kelly are promising sophomores who flashed ability last year but were rutted in inconsistency. In the back court, Kyle Sturdivant was consistently solid but not spectacular while Deivon Smith has raw talent but similar inconsistency to the now-sophomores. The man to watch may be Rodney Howard, who has the frame to be a dominant interior player, but is too foul prone (fouled out of four straight games in February) and not very assertive on offense. They will hope to get additional contributions from sophomore Jalon Moore as well as transfers Lance Terry and Javon Franklin, two up-transfers that averaged double-digit scoring at their previous stops.

Settling on an offense has been a struggle for Pastner at Georgia Tech. Whereas his best Memphis teams played fast, moving the ball well and attacking the interior with reckless abandon, he hasn't found that to be as easy in the ACC. The 2021 team with two NBA players in Jose Alvarado and Moses Wright is the only top-150 offense he's had in six seasons. Erratic pace, failure to adapt to the perimeter-oriented shift in the game, and a lack of talent are issues. Last year, they were a team unwilling to shoot the three, poor at shooting inside, and unable to get to the line. That wasn't a recipe for success. They likely need to turn up the pace as they do have some promising young players, but that could lead to a turnover-prone team (sub-200 in five of Pastner's six seasons in Atlanta). Where they are consistent is the defensive end. Pastner's teams are great at challenging and blocking shots, limiting opponent eFG% while mixing in a heavy dose of zone looks. With most of the key pieces being in the system for the second year, look for defense to be what keeps them in games.

After last year, expectations aren't high for this outfit. If Coleman can make a star turn and Rodney Howard can finally use his size effectively, there's reason for optimism, but by and large what returns is a group of lower usage, inefficient offensive players that will have to turn games into rock fights just to have a chance. And teams that try to grind out games tend to do best when they can convert the three. While Georgia Tech might have a few capable shooters, Pastner hasn't had a team in the top-200 of three point attempt rate in more than a decade, so what's more likely is a team that grinds opponents down defensively but doesn't have the offensive chops to get the job done. As fun as the 2020-21 team was in winning the ACC Tournament, it was Pastner's only tourney berth and only top-60 kenpom finish in the past 8 seasons, including his entire tenure at Georgia Tech. If he can't turn this bunch into a competitor, don't be surprised if he's on the hot seat come March.

What We've Learned: Gardner-Webb transfer Terry has started every game, with Kelly serving as a multi-positional reserve. While Marquette has had trouble with physical bigs like Howard, he's been awful this year, with more turnovers (5) than points scored (2) against D1 competition. The Yellow Jackets have been running out an undersized lineup, frequently playing a three-guard back court with no one taller than 6'7" on the floor. They have been miserable shooting the basketball, ranked #344 in eFG% and sub-300 in each individual shooting component including free throw percentage. Defensively, they look better, but that might be luck. While they have the 12th ranked eFG% defense, that's mostly because opponents are shooting just 22.7% from deep against them, which is dragged down with two of their three opponents ranked sub-340 in 3PFG%. This should be a get-right game for Marquette.

Marquette Connection: In 1999, current Georgia Tech assistant coach Julian Swartz was a household name among Wisconsin high school basketball aficionados. The Waukesha South star capped off his career with a State Player of the Year trophy in his third consecutive all-state selection. He enrolled at UW-Madison and was a reserve on Dick Bennett's 2000 Final Four team. But what those aficionados didn't know was that Swartz was dealing with a powerful obsessive-compulsive disorder that led him to leave Madison after just one season. He returned to Waukesha and enrolled at Carroll College, serving as an assistant coach at Waukesha South. After graduating from Carroll, he went to Marquette, serving as a graduate assistant for Tom Crean on a number of NCAA Tournament teams. He also worked with the West Allis/West Milwaukee school district, developing social emotional learning techniques, before committing to basketball full-time when he went to work with Josh Pastner at Memphis. Marquette's College of Education awarded him with the Counselor Education and Counseling Psychology Achievement Award in 2016. If Marquette faces Georgia Tech in Fort Myers, it will be the first time Swartz has coached against his grad program alma mater.

Mississippi State Preview, 2022-23

Mississippi State Bulldogs

November 21, 2022, Fort Myers, FL

Head Coach: Chris Jans (0-0 at Mississippi State, 143-44 Overall)

Three-Year NET Average: 62.7

Three-Year kenpom Average: 54.7

Projected 2022-23 T-Rank: 79

Projected Starters: PG Shakeel Moore (6'1" Jr), SG Dashawn Davis (6'2" Sr), SF DJ Jeffries (6'7" Sr), PF Cameron Matthews (6'7" Jr), C Tolu Smith (6'11" RS Sr)

Tolu Smith is the kind of big man that gives Marquette trouble

Photo by Kim Klement | USA Today Sports

Fresh off an NCAA upset win over UConn, Chris Jans takes over what would have to be considered a disappointing seven years in Starkville for Ben Howland. Last year's team flirted briefly with the bubble, notching wins over a trio of NCAA teams in Richmond, Alabama, and Arkansas on their way to a 13-5 start, but went just 5-10 the rest of the way, losing to Virginia in the NIT first round. While they lost flashy guard Iverson Molinar and productive big man Garrison Brooks, Jans does have some returning talent and incoming options.

Shakeel Moore and DJ Jeffries were expected to be big impact transfers, and while both showed flashes of promise, their seasons were erratic and both saw their efficiency drop off late in the year. Some of the backcourt pressure should be relieved for Moore as transfer Dashawn Davis was a prolific distributor for Oregon State. Tyler Stevenson joins the squad from Southern Miss and put up impressive raw numbers for a bad team. Tolu Smith is the guy Jans will hope anchors the team. He posted double-digit scoring in their last 7 games last year, with three double-doubles in there. He's a physical big that can be a game-changer, but had four stretches where he missed multiple games with injury last season. The bench will feature a transfer trio in Eric Reed, Jamel Horton, and Will McNair. The former two will help stretch the floor and provide back court depth while McNair follows Jans from New Mexico State and projects to be a rotational big with Stevenson and Smith.

Jans' strategy at Mississippi State will likely be similar to what he did with the Aggies, where he was a master of bringing disparate pieces together and molding them into a team. That got him results as he won 25+ games in four of his five seasons in Las Cruces, with the only exception being the COVID-shortened 2021 season. How did he do it? First, his teams pound the glass. Rebounding is a team effort and guys like Smith, Stevenson, and McNair are the kind of bodies that Jans wants to keep the boards clean. On offense, they will slow the pace and take a high volume of threes. While this team has guys willing to play the shooter role, they haven't shown to be particularly good at shooting. Reed and Horton give them some long-range ability, but they are the only players on the roster to crack 32% from deep last year and neither hit 36%.

So what will Mississippi State be? If Jeffries plays like an NBA talent, if the back court can settle down and play efficiently, if Smith is healthy, and if they hit threes, this team could challenge for an NCAA berth. But that's a lot of ifs and a lot of coming together in a short time. Jans has done it before and he's great at molding collections of players into teams, but they are vulnerable in non-conference play. If you exclude the COVID outlier season, his teams went 110-24 in four seasons, and eighteen of those twenty-four losses were to non-conference opponents. Part of that was playing in the WAC, but part of it was also his teams tending to get metrically better as the season went on. This game might be the best non-conference measuring stick for Marquette's future. This is a neutral site game against another team that is being overlooked early on but has NCAA upside. Winning this could go a long way in March.

What We've Learned: The Bulldogs have only played four buy games, but they have quietly been one of the best teams in the country. On kenpom, they have shot up from #53 to #27, which is a 26-spot improvement. That's mostly because of their defense. MSU is allowing a stingy 0.71 points per possession, fourth best nationally. The key to that has been Cameron Matthews, who was a rotation player last year and has turned into a high-level shot blocker and turnover generator, ranking top-100 in block and steal rates. Defensively, they have grinded teams down to a slow pace and dominated them physically. Offensively, they've been fine in most aspects but Matthews and Tolu Smith have been elite on the glass giving them many second chance opportunities. They haven't taken a ton of threes, which is a positive for a team that isn't shooting it well. Look for both teams to apply a lot of pressure (MSU is also #1 as a team in steal rate) with the biggest difference being the pace they want to play at. One key factor may be the health of Dashawn Davis, who picked up an ankle injury in their opener and is now listed as day-to-day. This will be another really good test and strong litmus test for Selection Sunday.

Marquette Connection: There has only been one prior meeting with the Bulldogs, and it was a whomping. The teams met in Maui in 2012 the day after Rotnei Clarke tore Marquette fan hearts out. Vander Blue led the way as Marquette took out their frustrations on Mississippi State, opening the game with a 25-9 run on their way to an 89-62 rout. Blue's 18 points and a 15/12 double-double from Davante Gardner paced Marquette in the victory. That team went on to win the Maui consolation bracket and later took revenge against Butler in the NCAA Tournament on their way to the Elite Eight.

Long Island Preview, 2022-23

Long Island Sharks

November 17, 2022, Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Rod Strickland (0-0)

Three-Year NET Average: 247.7

Three-Year kenpom Average: 257.7

Projected 2022-23 T-Rank: 347

Projected Starters: PG Tre Wood (6'1" RS Sr), SG Jacob Johnson (6'5" Jr), SF Quion Burns (6'5" So), PF Jake Cook (6'8" Jr), C Cheikh Ndiaye (6'8" Sr)

Tre Wood leads a new-look LIU squad

Photo from LIU Athletics

By seemingly any measure, Long Island had a successful 2021-22 season. After a rocky (but brutally scheduled) start, the Sharks went 12-6 in NEC play, their best conference record under Derek Kellogg, leading to their first overall winning record since 2018. Individually, Ty Flowers and Eral Penn were both named first team all-conference. The third-place league finish was a great foundation for a team that was set to return four starters and their top two reserves. They would've been one of the league favorites as it looked like Kellogg was even weathering the transfer market. Then in late June, LIU shockingly fired Derek Kellogg. Three of those four starters and one of the key reserves transferred, which means they lost their top five scorers. Rod Strickland took over the program, leaving his position with G League Ignite, but as a coach taking over in July, the transfer market was already picked over, leaving the Sharks with one of the most dismal looking rosters in Division I.

On paper, Maurice Commander should step in as one of the leaders of this team. However, he sat out the 2021-22 season. Whether it was because of a back injury or the death of his father, it's unclear how ready he will be to be a major contributor, but he's the only Shark that has averaged double-digit points in Division I. Tre Wood is the leading returning scorer, but he was a low-usage, low-efficiency player who was more a role-player than anything else. Jacob Johnson transfers in from UMKC, where he earned starting minutes but is another unlikely scoring option as he was the Roos' seventh option. Quion Burns is the returning reserve but (common refrain) was another player that was rarely a scoring threat, only hitting double-digits once against a D3 program. Freshman big CJ Delancy has athletic upside but is very raw, while fellow big man Amadou Fall is a journeyman at his third D1 program while also spending time at a JUCO along the way. Andre Washington, Noble Crawford, and Cheikh N'Diaye are the most likely bench contributors.

This team's strategy is hard to forecast. Strickland was the Director of Basketball Operations for John Calipari at Kentucky and later an assistant for the ill-fated Orlando Antigua era at South Florida, but he hasn't done much on his own outside of Ignite. Under Kellogg, LIU played at a blazing pace while playing an efficient defensive style that prioritized chasing teams off the line and drawing drivers into their shot blockers. But virtually that entire roster is gone and with such a talent deficient roster, it's hard to know what will be successful for the Sharks. It seems likely they'll try to slow the pace to keep games close and likely use zone to make up for the talent gap, at least until Strickland can rebuild the roster.

Looking at this roster, then looking at the lack of coaching experience, the lack of scoring, and the void of talent, the T-Rank projection of #347 might be considered rather optimistic. Granted, that's a woeful number, but it's just hard to believe there will be 15 teams worse than this one in Division I. Had Kellogg returned with his team, LIU might've had a case for being a top-200 team and NEC contender. This is not that. They will almost certainly be positively awful and anything other than a thorough drubbing in Marquette's favor would have to be considered a huge disappointment.

What We've Learned: LIU has only played one official game, getting drubbed 89-48 at Utah. Maurice Commander hasn't suited up yet for the Sharks and it's not yet known if he'll be back for Thursday. We've removed him from the starting lineup. The Sharks posted a miserable 34.7 eFG% and were battered on the glass on both ends. Strickland made two changes to the starting lineup in a game against D3 Mount St. Vincent. He still seems to be figuring out the rotation, so don't be surprised to see some changes on Thursday. The early line has this at -23.5 in favor of Marquette, and while Cracked Sidewalks isn't a gambling site, that number seems to be factoring in LIU being a top-275 team each of the past 5 years under Derek Kellogg and the roster he left behind rather than the train wreck this team looks to be now. Utah blew past their -25 spread and Marquette will be in position to do the same, particularly with the bad taste of squandering a lead late at Purdue in their mouths.

Marquette Connection: Older Marquette fans should be forgiven if they shudder when they hear Rod Strickland's name. In 1986, Rick Majerus managed to defeat a Strickland-led DePaul team at the MECCA, escaping with a 70-65 win. That was the last time Marquette would defeat Strickland, who proceeded to lead DePaul to five straight wins over Marquette.

Purdue Preview, 2022-23

Purdue Boilermakers

November 15, 2022, Mackey Arena

Head Coach: Matt Painter (409-197, 384-192 at Purdue)

Three-Year NET Average: 24.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 21.0

Projected 2022-23 T-Rank: 28

Projected Starters: PG Ethan Morton (6'7" Jr), SG Braden Smith (6'0" Fr), SF Fletcher Loyer (6'4" Fr), PF Mason Gillis (6'6" Jr), C Zach Edey (7'4" Jr)

Zach Edey is a tough matchup for most any opponent

Photo from Getty Images

A month into the 2021-22 season, Purdue looked like a team on a mission to end Matt Painter's streak as arguably the best coach to never make a Final Four. After powering past North Carolina and Villanova, teams that would eventually reach the Final Four, the Boilermakers climbed to the #1 spot in the AP Poll, but then they started a trend that would follow them the entire season long of losing to teams that on paper they shouldn't lose to. First it was Rutgers, then Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, and Wisconsin again. While all of them played in the NCAA Tournament, half were double-digit seeds and only Wisconsin managed a top-4 seed, largely because of those wins over Purdue. In the Big Ten Tournament final, Iowa upset Purdue despite the Boilers completing the regular season sweep. When they crashed out of the NCAA Tournament in the Sweet 16 to St. Peter's, the team found themselves missing out on the Big Ten regular season title, Big Ten Tournament title, and the elusive Final Four. The team was left with more questions as four of the top-five scorers, including top-5 NBA pick Jaden Ivey, departed for a mix of professional and collegiate opportunities.

The biggest questions will be about how the lineup shakes out. Ethan Morton is more of a natural wing, but backed up Ivey at the point last year and will most likely get first crack at the position. David Jenkins, Jr joins the Boilermakers from Purdue after previous stops at UNLV and South Dakota State. He is a reliable shooter, but definitely looks to score first and his productivity has declined as the level of competition he's faced has improved. Gillis mostly played the four last year but will likely need to be both more assertive offensively and play down to make room for Caleb Furst. The talented sophomore adds another proven shooter (everyone at the 1-4 shot over 39% from deep last year) but will need to improve his perimeter defense, or he could simply be relegated to Edey's backup. Edey is the lone returning double-digit scorer and provides a massive post presence that is high usage, high efficiency, dominant on the glass, and a constant shot-blocking threat. Off the bench, Painter has a number of talented but unproven options, with junior guard Brandon Newman and former top-50 recruit and redshirt freshman Trey Kaufman-Renn the most likely options to provide extra minutes or crack the starting lineup.

Offensively, Painter has been a genius at adapting to his personnel. For the past two years, much of his offense ran through the Trevion Williams, maybe the best passing big man since Draymond Green (and now appropriately joining Green with the Golden State Warriors). The combination of two dominant bigs sharing time and ultra-talented guard Jaden Ivey gave Purdue a brilliantly balanced attack. Painter excels at teaching both post and perimeter skills, a motion offense, and the secondary break. While his teams tend to play slow, they are still attack-minded and can be rapidly lethal when they have a guard that can attack like Ivey. Expect the pace to stay similar this year, but with so many shooters, Purdue will likely be less break heavy and more perimeter focused. They don't use much pick-and-roll, instead running motion off the ball and reversing their passes to create open looks and a wealth of catch-and-shoot opportunities at the arc. Expect a lot of four-out around Edey, with shooters everywhere and Edey working to clean the offensive glass (he was #1 nationally in offensive rebounding percentage, nearly two full percentage points ahead of Oscar Tshiebwe). Where they may struggle is against pressure. With few proven ballhandlers, it may take time for Purdue to sort out their back court rotation. Defensively, Painter's teams typically are effective at shutting down the paint and chasing teams off the three point line. However last year it was their #93rd ranked defense that proved their Achilles' Heel too often as they struggled to get key stops. This is where losing Ivey, who was at best defensively inconsistent, could help Purdue. Aside from Jenkins, they are able to put a lot of length at every position and the majority of the roster has been in they system for a couple years now so this should be a much improved unit that focuses on getting back quickly and manning up once opponents get across half court.

Painter's teams have been top-30 in kenpom seven straight years and thirteen of the last sixteen. It feels safe to say that even a relatively inexperienced team like this one will figure it out as the season goes on and comfortably find their way into the NCAA field. However guard play is certainly something to worry about. Jenkins is the only proven guard on the roster, and he's a ball-dominant scoring guard. The rest of the team is made up of wings and bigs, which will lead to some interesting lineup combinations. As talented as guys like Furst and Kaufman-Renn are, will they be able to get on the court if Painter puts his trust in the juniors? Aside from Edey, no one here has served as more than a role-player, so is someone ready to step into that massive alpha role left behind by the likes of Ivey and Williams? In terms of coaches that have earned trust, Painter is near the top, but while he's a consistent Big 10 winner, inexperienced Purdue teams tend to struggle in non-con play. Since kenpom has been recording Minutes Consistency in 2008, Painter's teams have ranked in the top-100 on 6 occasions. Those teams have lost just 7 non-con games (1.2 on average), never more than 2 in a single season. The average rank they lost to was 16.9, none worse than #47 Western Kentucky in 2017-18. Painter's teams have ranked outside the top-100 on 9 occasions, losing 33 times (3.7 on average), never fewer than 2 in a single season. The average rank they lost to was 74.6, including more than half the losses (18) to teams outside the top-50. Quite simply, when Painter has an experienced team, they tend to run over their non-con opponents, but when he doesn't, they are very beatable. This team will not be experienced. While Marquette has only ever beat Purdue once (the Koby McEwen game in 2019-20) this is a team that just hasn't played enough together to be trusted one week into the season. Particularly without much experienced ball-handling against Shaka's high-pressure Violence defense. This will be the first big test for this Marquette team, but in terms of opponent and timing, they couldn't be better situated to pull off what would be an early season upset.

What We've Learned: Edey has largely been as advertised, averaging 21 ppg/14 rpg with two double-doubles in their first two outings. He posted career highs in rebounds (17) and blocks (6) in their opener and followed that up with a career high in points (30) in their second game.As unstoppable as he can be when isolated in the low post, he does sometimes struggle with double teams (as UW-Milwaukee demonstrated) and is a liability on defense due to getting exposed in pick and roll and having trouble with opposing bigs that can put the ball on the floor. They are starting two freshman guards, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. Smith forced 7 steals against Milwaukee but turned it over 7 times himself in their first two games. Loyer didn't have as many turnovers and is the more prolific scorer, but he demonstrated a loose handle and had a number of times where he nearly lost his dribble against Austin Peay. One other thing that stood out in both of their first two games is Purdue is deep, with at least 9 players logging double-digit minutes in both games. Whether that's Painter trying to keep his guys fresh or just not being set on who his best options are remains to be seen.

Marquette Connection: This will be the third time Purdue has taken on Marquette in the Gavitt Games. Considering this is Purdue's fourth and Marquette's sixth appearances in the Games, these teams have seen quite a bit of each other. When last we previewed this tilt before the 2019-20 season, Purdue held a gaudy 9-0 all-time record against Marquette. After the Boilermakers started on a 9-0 run before doubling that lead to 38-20 later in the first half, it looked like another Purdue laugher as Marquette trailed by 13 at halftime. Then Koby McEwen took over. He scored 18 second half points, outscoring Purdue ALL BY HIMSELF as Marquette used a 40-17 second half domination to turn an 18-point deficit into a relatively comfortable 65-55 victory.

Central Michigan Preview, 2022-23

Central Michigan Chippewas

November 10, 2022, Al McGuire Center

Head Coach: Tony Barbee (138-150, 7-23 at Central Michigan)

Three-Year NET Average: 274.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 271.7

Projected 2022-23 T-Rank: 315

Projected Starters: PG Kevin Miller (6'0" So), SG Reggie Bass (6'4" Fr), SF Max Majerle (6'4" Fr), PF Markus Harding (6'10" So), Nicolas Pavrette (6'11" So)

Kevin Miller & Brian Taylor return as projected starters

Photo from Central Michigan Athletics

Tony Barbee returned to a head coaching job after 7 years as a Kentucky assistant and it didn't go well. A 4-1 stretch in the middle of the season was the only thing that kept them out of the MAC basement. Their 23 losses were the most by a Chips squad since 2006 and their #318 kenpom rank was the worst in program history. Adding to the rebuild effort was that of the ten players to start a game in 2021-22, four graduated and five entered the transfer portal. Two of those, Kevin Miller and Nicolas Pavrette, did pull their names out of the portal, saving Barbee from a second year of a near-complete rebuild.

Miller's return is huge for Central Michigan as he led the team in scoring and assists. The diminutive guard can create for others or for himself while scoring both inside and out. He's joined in the back court by Reggie Bass, who initially committed to Illinois but reopened his recruitment after his head recruiter, Orlando Antigua, left for Kentucky. Bass is regarded as an athletic combo guard with big shot making ability. Taylor is the do-everything wing that is a jack-of-all-trades but master of none. Up front, the Chips have significant size. Markus Harding is a 265-pound monster who showed some limited ability to stretch the floor at the JUCO level while Pavrette is an excellent shot-blocker. Another newcomer to watch is transfer Jesse Zarzuela, who did a bit of everything at Coppin State and could crack the starting lineup. Off the bench, keep an eye on freshman Max Majerle, son of former CMU and NBA star "Thunder" Dan Majerle. Miroslav Stafl is another likely contributor who played limited minutes due to injury after transferring from Hartford.

Offensively, Barbee likes to run an up-tempo style. When things are going right, lots of threes and shots at the rim designed to get his team to the free throw line. On defense, they will aggressively chase teams off the three-point line and are physical all over the floor, which can get them into foul trouble. Compounding those issues is that five of the top-six scorers from last year are no longer on the roster.

Barbee did very well at UTEP in his first head coaching job, building the Miners into an at-large NCAA Tournament team in 2010. This looks like a much tougher job, and a far different situation. While Miller and Taylor give him some experience and newcomers like Bass, Harding, and Majerle give him some promise, this is a team that was bad last year and got worse over the summer. Anything less than a thorough beat-down in front of the students at the Al would be a disappointment for Shaka Smart's team.

What We've Learned: In their exhibition against Northwood, Max Majerle got the start as Brian Taylor didn't play. We don't know if Taylor will be back tonight but we've inserted Majerle as the starter. Bass led the way with 19 points and Zarazuela added 17 off the bench in an 88-61 win. Another contributor was JUCO transfer Carrington McCaskill, a forward whose 23 minutes led all bench players. With Harding and McCaskill, keep an eye on the glass. Both were big-time offensive rebounders in their exhibition and this is a team with more up-front beef than Radford had, so how Marquette handles that physicality will likely determine how well the night goes.

Marquette Connection: The Chippewas have only taken on Marquette once, an 81-67 win in Buzz Williams' debut 2008-09 season. Wes Matthews led the Golden Eagles with 18 points in a slogging foul-fest that involved 49 fouls between the teams.

Radford Preview, 2022-23

Radford Highlanders

November 7, 2022, Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Darris Nichols (11-18)

Three-Year NET Average: 233.3

Three-Year kenpom Average: 237.3

Projected 2022-23 T-Rank: 280

Projected Starters: PG Josiah Jeffers (6'1" Sr), SG DaQuan Smith (6'2" Sr), SF Onyebuchi Ezeakudo (6'2" RS Sr), PF Bryan Antoine (6'5" Jr), C Shaquan Jules (6'7" Sr)

Josiah Jeffers is back after leading Radford in scoring and assists

Photo from Radford Athletics

Taking a glance at 2021-22 Radford, Head Coach Darris Nichols' debut campaign had the worst winning percentage for the Highlanders in 10 years. But while the initial impression is disappointing, there are reasons for optimism. Per T-Rank, the Highlanders were at #301 on January 31. Over the last month of the season, they played like the #235 ranked team and in 9 of their 10 losses after the new year they either had a second half lead or went to overtime. The improvement primarily came on the offensive end, where their efficiency improved from 325 to 254 and eFG% improved from 322 to 250. This shift was also driven by a major improvement in turning opponents over (#169 to #11 turnover rate) and reduction in tempo (66.2 possessions per game to 63.6). In the final third of the season, they slowed the pace, created more possessions, and got better shots. The question will be if they can sustain that in 2022-23.

Josiah Jeffers will lead that attack. Those offensive improvements above were exemplified by his eFG% improving from 39.1% in the first 20 games to 53.2% in the last 9. A pair of transfers join Jeffers in the back court. DaQuan Smith comes from Murray State, where he was a starter for the Racers in 2019-20 before losing his spot. The highest profile newcomer Bryan Antoine, a 2019 McDonald's All-American who joins by way of Villanova but has been beset by injuries. Both of those players should do well against Big South competition. Up front, expect Shaquan Jules to move into a featured role after serving as a bruising reserve forward. Nichols has a host of big man options, with JUCO transfer D'Auntray Pierce providing the athletic shot-blocker they needed and grad transfers Souleymane Koureissi (Richmond) and Madiaw Niang (Florida Atlantic) providing additional options. Also expect contributions from Onyebuchi Ezeakudo, who went from freshman walk-on to spot starter at Pittsburgh before transferring to Radford.

Darris Nichols played college for John Beilein and Bob Huggins. After a year playing professionally in Hungary, he returned stateside and got into coaching. He started as a grad assistant at West Virginia and spent time also working for Mike Young at Wofford and Mike White at both Louisiana Tech and Florida. Offensively, they start with a slow pace that, as mentioned, got slower as the year went on. They didn't do much well but took a lot of threes and hit the offensive glass hard. As a team, their 3PFG% was dragged down by a trio of now-departed sophomores that all shot under 30%. Adding guys like Smith, Antoine, Ezeakudo, and freshman Ibu Yamazaki should improve their shooting. On defense, expect them to roll out some pressure zone. That was the crux of their turnover success. They are also solid at team rebounding, limiting opponent possessions while having a plethora of new experienced big men to go along with Jules.

Digging in, Nichols' team did figure it out as the season went on and adding five transfers from top-150 programs is a significant talent influx for a Big South squad. Nichols definitely flexed some of his Florida recruiting experience muscles (he was Antoine's lead recruiter for the Gators in high school). I really think once they gel, this could be an overachiever in the Big South and if it all goes right, they could be back to the level Mike Jones had them at sooner rather than later. But for Marquette, they won't be playing them in February. On November 7th, this will be a team with thirteen (including walk-ons) new players on the roster and only two returnees with system experience. Marquette should have little trouble with this team in the season opener. Expect a healthy margin of victory with the potential to age into an upper end Quadrant 4 win as the season goes on.

What We've Learned: In their exhibition against Mary Baldwin, Ezeakudo was a starter. While that may not hold against Marquette, they played small most of the game, with Madiaw Niang (15 minutes) the only player taller than 6'8" to enter the game. Their leading scorers were Yamazaki and fellow freshman Kenyon Giles, both of whom tallied 21 points. While none of the starters played more than 24 minutes, those two were both getting first half minutes so expect them to both factor off the bench. The Radford defense had 13 steals and forced 19 turnovers, so also look for the Highlanders to try to match Marquette's defense with pressure of their own. And while just an exhibition, the two aforementioned freshman went a combined 6/11 from three as the team went 12/22, so at least for one night, the shooting woes of last season look to have been somewhat mitigated.

Marquette Connection: This will be the first time Marquette has ever played Radford, but it won't be the first time Darris Nichols has gone up against Marquette. Nichols was a guard for West Virginia when they took on Marquette in Big East play in 2006, 2007, and 2008. Nichols' teams went 2-1 against MU, with the home team taking the W each time out. He was a little used reserve the first year, but was a starter in both 2007 and 2008, highlighted by a 12 point, 5 assist effort in the Mountaineers' 79-64 2008 win in Morgantown.

We are back from summer vacation and ready to sellout for MUBB...and other things

We are back and ready to talk MUBB because it has been the quietest summer either of us can remember for Marquette basketball. We want to talk roster changes and how we hope to see those changes work out. We then talk media narrative around Marquette and why we are baffled at it being so uniformly low as we look around the Big East. Then, we talk clothing, and not just any clothing but sweet 19Nine Marquette gear. We then close out the pod with some talking about a Marquette event with Bill Scholl, Shaka Smart, and Megan Duffy. In case you forgot over the summer, enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/u94cdw/ScrambledEggs_Editted_100922.mp3

How to do NCAA Tournament Expansion Right

SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey recently suggested the NCAA take a "fresh look" at the selection process. His comments indicate two things. First, the big boys would be interested in expanding the tournament field. In addition, he spoke about eliminating the automatic qualifiers, which chafes fans who love the idea that at the beginning of March, every eligible team (outside a few Ivy League outliers) has a clear, if not necessarily realistic, path to winning the National Championship.

Greg Sankey is hinting at NCAA Tourney expansion
 Photo by Andy Lyons | Getty Images

I would join the chorus of individuals that does not want the automatic qualifiers to go away. While Sankey based his argument on First Four to Final Four teams like 2011 VCU, 2018 Syracuse, and 2021 UCLA, the removal of automatic qualifiers would likely eliminate every automatic bid 13-seed or worse, which means the even-more-recent 2022 St. Peter's story never would've happened.

More often than not in the constant "tradition vs money" battle, money wins out, but I'd like to explore an option that would allow for more money to be made (and likely consolidated by the major conferences) while also preserving the tradition that gives every team a path to the title. Here is what I would propose:

Step 1: Add First Four sites

Not only is expansion inevitable, if done right it could actually make the NCAA Tournament better. The first step is expanding to more Tuesday and Wednesday sites. Dayton has been a good pick because it didn't host regularly, is in close proximity to another major city, and has a rabid basketball fanbase that will come for the entertainment, not just for the hometown team.

My first addition would be Omaha. They've only hosted once historically (though recently, in 2018), draw a passionate crowd with regularity, and don't have pro sports options to compete with. Omaha is also located toward the western side of the country which will make it a better geographic fit than cramming everything east of the Mississippi.

We shouldn't need a pandemic to put the Tourney at Assembly Hall

Photo by Matt Begala | Indiana Athletics

Next up, you have to appease the big boys. While Knoxville used to host somewhat regularly (three times in the 1990s) they haven't had NCAA games at Thompson-Boling since 1999. This would provide guaranteed revenue to an SEC school and is again a large enough arena that will draw fans. Finally, we need a Big 10 school, and I would propose Indiana's Assembly Hall. Outside of the 2021 all-Indiana bubble, they haven't hosted since 1981 but have dedicated basketball fans and like Dayton, close proximity to a larger city. So let's go with Creighton, Tennessee, and Indiana joining Dayton as perennial First Four sites. You can even keep the "First Four" moniker because those arenas will be the First Four hosts every year.

Step 2: Every 15/16 has to play their way in

Rather than doing away with the 15s and 16s completely, which would rob fans of stories like St. Peter's, UMBC, and Dunk City that are just as compelling as the First Four to Final Four stories, let's send them all to First Four sites. This would accomplish a number of things. It would retain the "everyone has a chance" storyline, preserve the "easier" path for 1/2 seeds, and improve the 64-team field come Thursday.

By putting the "worst" teams into these games, it would still give everyone the theoretical chance at the NCAA Title. After all, if the first team to go from 16-seed to Sweet 16 is someone like post-automatic bid Syracuse (and you know it would be them), it won't quite have the same magic as we felt when UMBC pulled the Virginia upset. Retaining the automatic bids, even if they are diluted in the course, allows the NCAA Tournament to keep the magical feel that makes it so unique among American playoffs. 

Moments like UMBC over UVA are only possible with autobids intact

Photo by Andrew Shurtleff | Daily Progress

In addition, if we were to completely eliminate automatic bids, the opponent quality seen in opening games by the 1 and 2 seeds would be far more difficult to overcome. While upsets are fun, both the monied interests and the fans want to see the big boys in the second and third weekends. Keeping the weakest teams in the 15/16 seeds spots would help deliver that. After all, fans want the top teams to advance and the harder you make their path the less likely that is to continue.

That said, in 1985, the NCAA went to the 64 team seeded format. From 1985 through 2010, just 4 teams seeded 15 or worse won a game. There was one team added, to the 65-team field in 2001, but the results didn't change much. Then, in 2011, they expanded the field to 68. Since that expansion, 7 teams seeded 15 or worse have won a combined 11 games. By knocking out two of the worst 16-seeds in the First Four, the remaining 16s are stronger. Teams that would've been on the 14 or 15 lines years ago are now 15s or 16s, and their results have improved accordingly. Keeping the 15s and 16s would strengthen that pool and make the 1/2 seed first round games that much more compelling.

Step 3: Add 12 at-large teams

This is where people wince. But while it's easy to say "why add bad NIT caliber teams?" the question should be "are there more VCU/Syracuse/UCLA teams out there?" Might 2018 Penn State or 2019 Texas, both of whom finished top-25 at kenpom after winning the NIT, had a similar NCAA run in them?

There are a few reasons to justify adding these teams. The obvious first one is money. More inventory, particularly if it means adding high-major teams on Tuesday and Wednesday (always the most watched games) means more money. The vast preponderance of these bids will also go to high major teams. If the impetus is from the top six leagues, they account for the majority of where those newly awarded bids would go. Looking at the top three NIT seeds from the past three tournaments, 25/36 (69.4%) teams came from the ACC, Big East, Big 10, Big 12, Pac-12, and SEC. More inventory, more money, and a larger percentage going to the programs that are driving the bus.

More inventory like Notre Dame/Rutgers Double OT please
 Photo by Jeff Dean | AP

However, the real benefit is turning Tuesday and Wednesday into legitimate NCAA Tournament dates rather than appetizers for the diehards. There would be a far bigger audience for a slate that featured the following at the First Four sites, using 2022 as an example:

• Indiana vs Florida
• Notre Dame vs St. Louis
• Rutgers vs VCU
• Wyoming vs Mississippi State
  
• Dayton vs Xavier
• Texas A&M vs North Texas
• SMU vs Wake Forest
• Oklahoma vs BYU
  

Those are games with big brands that will attract eyes regardless of fan allegiance. More games allows for better chances at attractive rivalry matchups or storylines, whether it's Dayton/Xavier in a true rivalry, Texas A&M/North Texas in an in-state tilt, or Oklahoma/BYU in the future and soon to be past Big 12. Mixing those with the 15/16 seeds games will provide a legitimate slate that will have broader interest. Tuesday and Wednesday won't be token games everyone can write off, they will be the legitimate start of the NCAA Tournament, spanning four networks with big brands playing consistently through both evening sessions.

Step 4: The makeup of the 64

So with this expansion, what will we be left with come the Thursday/Friday sessions? This will be the makeup of the remaining field:

• 16 Automatic bids opening tourney play
• 32 At-large bids opening tourney play
• 8 Automatic 15/16 seed play-in bids
• 8 At-large play-in bids

Without question, the quality at this point will be better. The 1 and 2 seeds will face the best remaining 15 and 16 seeds, many of which in the past would've been 13 or 14 seeds. In turn, the 11-14 lines will be made up of the better mid-major champs and at-large play-in winners. In general, everyone in this range will be a line or two lower than they would've been in the past, meaning better teams filling out those lines. And the top-10 or so lines will be unchanged, the best teams in the country getting in on merit as they always have.

If they really wanted to tamp down on small conference inclusion, they could include 8 more automatic qualifiers in the "play-in" to the 14 line as well. Or they could have First Four mini-tournaments, where the bottom 16 teams are broken into 4 pods and have to win games on Tuesday and Wednesday to advance to the 16-lines in the round of 64, while the 8 teams above them would play-in to the 15-seed games. This would take the bottom 24 automatic bids and pare them down to 8 participants in the main 64-team bracket. Would it be the same? Obviously not, but it would still give a chance to those teams and provide great storyline opportunity while also improving the overall quality of play once Thursday and Friday roll around.

The End Result

This tournament setup would be the best of both worlds. For the high-major conferences, they get more bids and by eliminating 8 autobids before Thursday, increase their odds of having their own teams advance. By increasing the First Four inventory, there is a tangibly higher value to the opening days of the tournament, which will hinge primarily on the big brands drawing eyeballs (as they always have).

What if the Tournament could be bigger AND better?
 Photo by Tom Pennington | Getty Images

For the small schools, they still have a chance to play in the Big Dance and eight coaches of 15/16 seeds will be guaranteed to go home claiming an NCAA Tournament win. In addition, by thinning the herd at the First Four sites the teams that do make it to the Round of 64 should be in better position to pull off an upset.

Basketball junkies also benefit because they get two days of legitimate content, not just a couple games per night that most people view as throwaways. Casual fans benefit because they get to see more big brands on the opening nights and get to tune in to the national brands to start matters. The NCAA as a whole benefits because more inventory means more advertising and more profit. Whether they could renegotiate as a result (the CBS/Turner deal that runs to 2032 is woefully small compared to the product value) remains to be seen but it would certainly enhance their negotiating ability when the next contract talks come up.