Attacking the Poll Attacker

When Gary Parrish of CBS Sports put Marquette at 26 in his most recent Top 25 And 1 column, my first thought was "yeah, that's wrong." After listening to his comments on the CBS Sports Eye on College Basketball podcast, I decided I needed to explain why. First of all, I do generally really enjoy Parrish's work. I listen to the pod all year long, I read both the Top 25 And 1 & Poll Attacks, & follow him on Twitter. I think Parrish does a good job & is entertaining to follow on various platforms.

But in the most recent CBS Sports Eye on College Basketball podcast, Parrish defended his placement of Marquette using what could only be described as pretzel logic. So in the spirit of Poll Attacks, I decided to break down his defense. Here's the bulk of what Parrish had to say:

"This is the most common thing I hear from Marquette fans: How can you have us so low when we've got three top-15 wins? No you don't. You have one, over Wisconsin, at home, in overtime. You beat Kansas State when they were in the top-15 of the AP poll but they're unranked now, 28th at Kenpom. You beat Buffalo when they were in the top-15 of the AP poll but they're 21st now & 31st at Kenpom. My point being, you've got to stop it. You can't keep claiming you've got three top-15 wins...if you want to say I've got Marquette too low & give some reasons why you think I do, that's fine...They're 30th at Kenpom. It's not like they're 11th at Kenpom & I've got them 25th or 26th or whatever...In other words, think of it this way, on Selection Sunday, the Committee is going to base everything off of where teams are on Selection Sunday. You beat somebody in November or December when that school was ranked in the top-15, now they're no longer in the top-40, it won't register like a top-15 win."

Parrish is right about top-15 wins, but he's wrong about resume quality, which is what I talked about when I made my own comments on Twitter. In the Indiana capsule at #25, Parrish talks about how the Hoosiers have 5 top-50 wins at Kenpom. Let's use that as a guide. Let's look at top-50 wins both in terms of quantity & quality, & all losses. This image will be our guide. The darker green the win, the better it is. The darker red the loss, the worse it is. If a loss is listed in black, it means it's a sub-50 loss, so really bad.

Also, the defense of "look at their Pomeroy ranking", which Parrish used above when he referenced Marquette being ranked 30th at Kenpom, is not a valid defense when you have Kenpom #14 Nebraska at 24 & #44 Kenpom Arizona State 8 spots higher at 16. Also, head-to-head will not be a tiebreaker. It is effectively using the transitive property of basketball. Because not everyone plays each other, we simply have to compare resumes using ranks. So when comparing Wisconsin & Marquette, it's a loss at #30 and a win against #12.

Here's the spreadsheet showing top-50 wins and all losses:

So here we go. Marquette will only be used as a reference point. Let's compare resumes by breaking resumes into three categories.

Clearly Inferior to Marquette (14)

24. Nebraska: They have great computer numbers, but Marquette has 3 wins better than the Huskers' best win & they have a glaring loss to Minnesota.
23. Cincinnati: Zero top-50 wins. Their loss column looks good, but how about actually beating somebody, anybody, before you get ahead of a Marquette team with 4 wins in the top-40?
21. Houston: Undefeated is great, but they haven't beat a single team as good as Marquette's fourth-best win. I'll take 4-2 against the top-40 over 0-0 every single day.
19. North Carolina: The win over Gonzaga is great, but they've done nothing else of consequence. They've only played 4 top-50 games & lost 3 of them. One game does not a resume make.
18. Kentucky: If North Carolina doesn't quality, the Wildcats' case is even weaker. Win over UNC, sure, but only 2 top-50 games & a loss outside the top-50 should disqualify them from the rankings altogether. They're only ranked because Parrish had them #1 preseason. That's it.
17. Mississippi State: 3 top-50 wins to Marquette's 4, each win they have is of lesser quality, & a worse loss than any that Marquette has taken.
16. Arizona State: Their two best wins are better than Marquette's two best, but MU wins in terms of quantity & that loss at Vanderbilt is really glaring. It's amazing that everyone was ready to drop ASU like a bad habit after Vandy, then suddenly everyone forgets that when they beat Kansas. That was a really bad loss to take. It is the single worst loss of any team in the Top 25 And 1.
15. Auburn: No team in the nation right now says "confirmation bias" like Auburn. Zero top-50 wins. Zero. Sure, their losses are good losses, but like Cincinnati, beat somebody, anybody, please.
14. NC State: What has NC State done to deserve this spot? Beat Auburn, who doesn't belong here in the first place. Ignoring that fact, NC State has padded their resume with cupcakes & has half Marquette's top-50 wins & of lesser quality.
12. Ohio State: Only 2 top-50 wins, wins are of inferior quality, & a loss worse than any loss Marquette has suffered.
11. Virginia Tech: They are being propped up by a win over Purdue that loses luster by the minute, have a worse loss than any Marquette has, & nothing else of substance. Another case of confirmation bias with zero substance to back it up.
9. Texas Tech: We already deconstructed Nebraska, which is the only top-50 win on TTU's resume. Are they really in the top-10 because of 1 decent win & 9 against sub-90 Kenpom opponents? Or is it because they played Duke tough for 35 minutes? Sorry, but if results matter, this ranking is a joke.I think Chris Beard is a great coach, but their eFG% is propped up against the #337 ranked schedule in the country. If TTU belongs here, why isn't St. John's right next to them?
8. Michigan State: I know, it seems like sacrilege to mention Sparty. The computers love them. But they don't own a single top-25 win. Their worst loss is worse than Marquette's worst loss. Maybe if they played the same schedule MU wouldn't be as good, but based on the schedule each team has played, Marquette owns the better resume.
3. Nevada: Houston, we have a problem. It's that Houston has two wins better than Nevada's only top-50 win & is ranked 18 spots behind them. And if Marquette should clearly be ahead of Houston, they should also clearly be ahead of Nevada. Nevada might be great, might be deep, might have won all their games, but Marquette is 4-2 against the top-40 & Nevada is 0-0.  Get back to me when you actually play someone. So March 21, 2019.

Comparable to Marquette (6)

25. Indiana: The Hoosiers don't quite have the quality of Marquette's wins, but they edge them in quantity & have a road win. The loss to Arkansas is bad, but since the 5 top-50 Kenpom wins is the root of the discussion, I'll consider them on par with us.
22. Oklahoma: Matt Norlander likes to talk about their Quadrant 1&2 wins, but Parrish used Kenpom top-50, so that's the measuring stick. Marquette wins in terms of quantity & quality of wins, the Sooners win in quantity & quality of losses, we'll call it a wash.
20. Iowa: Marquette wins in terms of quantity & quality of wins, Iowa wins quality of losses. Iowa having half the total top-50 wins is a problem, but no losses outside the top-12 is really impressive.
13. Wisconsin: Best win goes to Marquette, second best win goes to Wisconsin, best loss goes to Wisconsin, second best loss goes to Marquette. Flip the coin between these two.
10. Florida State: Marquette has the better win, FSU the better loss (and one less loss). These teams should be close together.
7. Gonzaga: Yes, I'm going there. The Duke win is awesome. Really impressive. But what else have they done? The Creighton win is nice, but Marquette has four wins between Duke & Creighton. The Zags have two losses as well. Better losses than Marquette, but 4 wins better than Gonzaga's second best win is a lot to overcome. I'm not saying Marquette should be ahead of Gonzaga. I wouldn't rank them there. But in terms of resume, Marquette's is right there next to Gonzaga.

Clearly Better Than Marquette (5)

6. Kansas, 5. Michigan, 4. Virginia, 2. Duke, 1. Tennessee: These are the ones I'm not going to go into. Though that Arizona State loss is ugly for Kansas, Marquette simply doesn't match the quality of victories these teams have & every other loss is better than our best loss.

So what does this all mean? If you're going to cite resumes as the reason for your ranking using Kenpom top-50 as the basis, Marquette should be no worse than 12th. And if you are going to make part of your profession attacking other people's work, be willing to accept the criticism when someone justifiably attacks your own, especially when you invite them to do so on your podcast.

It also means that Marquette isn't the only team that has reason to gripe. Gonzaga, Florida State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Oklahoma, & Indiana should all be moving way up.

Christmas S-Curve

The season is coming up on two months old, so I decided to do a first S-Curve. To start, I established the conference champions primarily using the NET Rankings. When there was a significant difference between the kenpom and NET rankings (such as Old Dominion and North Texas in C-USA) I made a judgment call. At the moment, the bubble is pretty soft. Here's what I came up with:

1-Seeds: 1-MICHIGAN 2-DUKE 3-Virginia 4-TENNESSEE
2-Seeds: 8-Texas Tech 7-NEVADA 6-GONZAGA 5-KANSAS
3-Seeds: 9-MARQUETTE 10-Wisconsin 11-NC State 12-Oklahoma
4-Seeds: 16-Indiana 15-HOUSTON 14-Michigan State 13-North Carolina
5-Seeds: 17-Mississippi State 18-ARIZONA STATE 19-Auburn 20-Kentucky
6-Seeds: 24-Ohio State 23-Nebraska 22-BUFFALO 21-Virginia Tech
7-Seeds: 25-Louisville 26-Florida State 27-Cincinnati 28-Iowa
8-Seeds: 32-Minnesota 31-Florida 30-TCU 29-Seton Hall
9-Seeds: 33-Villanova 34-LSU 35-Butler 36-Utah State
10-Seeds: 40-St. John's 39-Kansas State 38-Purdue 37-Creighton
11-Seeds: 41-Mississippi 42-Iowa State 43-VCU 44-FURMAN
12-Seeds: 50-LIPSCOMB 49-UC-IRVINE 48-St. Louis/47-Texas 46-Arizona/45-San Francisco
13-Seeds: 51-BELMONT 52-PENN 53-CHARLESTON 54-OLD DOMINION
14-Seeds: 58-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE 57-MONTANA 56-VERMONT 55-NEW MEXICO STATE
15-Seeds: 59-RADFORD 60-DRAKE 61-TEXAS STATE 62-WRIGHT STATE
16-Seeds: 68-NORTH CAROLINA A&T/67-TEXAS SOUTHERN 66-CENTRAL CONNECTICUT STATE/65-RIDER 64-LEHIGH 63-ABILENE CHRISTIAN

Last Four In: San Francisco, Arizona, Texas, St. Louis
Last Four Byes: Kansas State, St. John's, Mississippi, Iowa State

First Four Out: Maryland, Syracuse, Oregon, Clemson
Next Four Out: Providence, Notre Dame, Northwestern, Vanderbilt

Also Considered: UCF, Penn State, Washington, Fresno State, Murray State, St. Mary's, West Virginia, Miami, Alabama, Arkansas, UCLA, Baylor, Colorado

Marquette came up higher than I expected. That could be a personal bias, but they are one of only three teams in the nation with four top-50 Pomeroy wins (actually all top-40) and zero sub-25 losses. The other two are Michigan and Duke. When you are comparing top-100 games and the actual wins and losses in those games, MU's resume is really tough.

There were three teams that stood out that I was higher on than most others. I have NC State on the 3-line, higher than anyone at Bracket Matrix, despite their soft schedule. They are 3-1 in top-100 kenpom games with the only loss on the road at Wisconsin. Seton Hall is another team I'm higher on. All of their losses are to teams in the field while they boast three top-50 kenpom wins away from home. The last is St. Louis, who most don't have in the field. They are my last team in despite their low kenpom ranking because of their wins over Seton Hall and Butler while sporting a respectable 3-3 top-100 record and only one loss outside the top-100.

I also noticed three teams I'm lower on. Michigan State is on my 4-line because while the computers like them, they don't have any top-25 kenpom wins while having a loss outside the top-25. The teams ahead of them have either better wins, more acceptable losses, or both. Florida State is another one I'm not as high on. I'm not sold on either the Florida or Purdue wins being as good as they looked in the preseason. The last one is UCF, who are one of the last four in on Bracket Matrix but not even in my next four out. Their entire resume is a win over Alabama that is offset by an ugly home loss to Florida Atlantic. They will need to pick up a couple big wins in conference play if they want to make the field. Beating Houston and/or Cincinnati at least twice feels like a must.

Finally, some thoughts on the Big East. After Marquette, no one's resume has really separated itself from the rest. Seton Hall's wins over Kentucky and Maryland have helped immensely. Everyone else seems to have highs and lows, with the exception of St. John's who's results are all highs but opponents are all lows. Six bids for this league feels like a lot, but I just don't see a case for any of the teams on the outside ahead of Creighton or St. John's (the last two Big East teams). Neither of those two teams has any losses outside the top-25 and they've come away with wins in every game they would be expected to win.

MU's NCAA Path: Charleston, Lville, Mich, Texas Tech, UVA, Duke

If the Selection Committee went exactly from the new Net Ratings (that replaced RPI this year) then I have Marquette as the 4-seed in the East. Their path if higher seeds won all other games would be:

13-seed College of Charleston
5-seed Louisville in a rematch of the overtime win
1-seed Michigan
2-seed Texas Tech
East 1-seed Virginia
Overall 1-seed (South) Duke

I did not run a true S-Curve (where the 1 overall necessarily faces the 8 overall) but rather took each four set of the next seed and let the top one go in their closest region, with the worst of the four with that seed getting last dibs on whichever region was left. Still, this would be pretty close. The number to the left of each team is their seed - while the number to their right after the conference is their Net rating.

The Big East gets only four invites going exactly by the current Net Rating, but with great hope in light of recent big wins for 69th ranked Providence (won at 74th ranked Texas who most consider higher), 78th ranked Seton Hall (beat 22nd ranked Kentucky) and 53rd ranked Creighton (ranked 39th at www.kenpom.com and beat Ken Pom's 37th ranked team Clemson on a neutral court). I should say Nate Silver trashed the new Net System, but overall I do believe it is a big improvement over RPI because you get credit for margin of victory up to 10 points (so the K-State and Buffalo wins shot MU way up to 13th) which also gives credit for keeping a tough opponent close.

We soaked up all the Badger Victory we could, now it's time to get back to basketball

10 days off from #MUBB basketball is a very long time, even if we have a victory over the red menace from the west to keep us occupied. Fear not, dear listener, we are back and ready to tackle the rest of the non-conference season. First, we kick off the pod with a little #instatrakka where we noticed in some MU instragram stories that Greg Elliot appeared to be a full go at practice. So we begin rampant speculation of whether Greg will be back against North Dakota or Southern and what his return means for minutes. We then talk Tuesday's opponent in North Dakota before transitioning to the most important remaining game in the non-conference...Buffalo. We talk about concerns and possibilities against Buffalo and how we see the game turning out. That conversation turns into a therapy session dealing with the fact that Marquette might be the favorite in the Big East. We close out the pod with some talk about a recent story in the local paper that MU looked at creating an on-campus arena instead of going to the Fiserv Forum....spoiler alert, we both think it would have been a dumb idea. Enjoy! https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/2bvb72/scrambledeggs_editted_121718.mp3

Victory Edition of Scrambled Eggs - Badgers Suck

Well, it is a very happy podcast this well, as your Marquette Warriors took down the rodent menace from the west in a tight game. We could talk about the UTEP game, but we won't because we want to jump right into reliving a great victory for Marquette. We discuss how MU pulled off the win, what we saw that concerned us, and debate the game Markus Howard had. We had to spend some time on the dumbest play we've seen in quite some time, Flopper Davidson's nut punch of Joey Hauser, and have a little fun at his expense. MU now has 10 days off and is roughly where we thought/hoped they'd be so we step back and look at how we got here and what that means for the rest of the season for Marquette. Needless to say, we're forecasting some sun days ahead going into Big East season. Hope you enjoyed the very joyous #BadgerHateWeek and please enjoy the finals break. https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/42y8xa/scrambledeggs_editted_120918.mp3

Marquette 74, #12 Wisconsin 69 (OT). Davison with 0 pts, but 1 DP

Marquette beat UW-madison 74-69 in OT at the Fiserv Forum today.  MU remains undefeated ALL-TIME in the building.  Marquette trailed at the half by two points and in the second half the teams traded leads ten times in the final ten minutes.  Marquette had a chance to win with seconds left, but a short jump shot by Markus Howard did not fall.  In the OT session MU never trailed.  Perhaps the key play in OT, MU was up 65-63 when Brad Davison was called for a flagrant foul by punching Joey Hauser in the manhood.  Davison fouled out with zero points, including 0-3 from the line and one punch to the privates for a stat line.  After collecting himself from the assault, Joey drilled both free throws.

In the final minute, MU missed 6 straight free throws, but Wisconsin could not capitalize.

Davison to the family jewels

Marquette has beaten Wisconsin three of the last four games.

A solid program victory and #BadgerHateWeek, it's gonna be a happy pod

It's happy pod time, as Marquette got a convincing (albeit a painful to watch) win over a quality opponent in Kansas State. We talk about the win, Marcus Howard, and just how painful that officiating was. We also spend a minute or two talking about Jamal Cain and whether his playing time is of concern. We then transition right past UTEP for the most part and on to everyone's favorite week, #BadgerHateWeek. We breakdown the ins and the outs of the game, discuss Brad Davidson's ab workout that enables him to launch himself, and what Marquette has to do to win the game. We close out with predictions and a solicitation for your best Badger rivalry jokes. Enjoy! https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/xy9sxu/scrambledeggs_editted_120218.mp3

This week's Marquette Men's Basketball Rankings

The latest and greatest, including the now defunct RPI.  The NCAA NET scores, the replacement to the RPI, hopefully will become closer to the mean of the others soon.

As of 12/1/18

ELO #17

ESPN BPI #21

RPI   #20  

Sagarin #25

Kenpom  #29

NCAA NET  #84  (through Nov 29th)

Is up down and right left? Is #MUBB a defensive team that struggles on offense?

We've gotten more clarity in the last week about what Marquette is this season both in the micro and macro sense. We first revisit the Kansas game, a tale of two halves and discuss what it means within the context of the Wojo era. That discussion leads to a conversation around how real the idea is that MU is now defensively competent and a problem on offense. And more importantly, what does it take to "heal" the offense. We spend some time talking Louisville results as well and what that tell us about the maturity of the team. We then turn attention to the upcoming game against Kansas State, a top 15 program, coming to the Fiserv Forum on Saturday. They are a strong defensive team who's looked good but against less than stellar competition whereas MU has looked questionable at times but against quality competition. We close out the pod with Joe being completely unaware that Katie Holmes has a Marquette connection and a quick debate of famous not athlete MU fans/alum. As always, enjoy! https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/6cucdy/ScrambledEggs_editted_112818.mp3

4 to 5 years to judge a college coach....sticking to the timeline

Several years ago, I made the statement that one needs 4 to 5 years to FULLY judge a coach at the college level.  That provided humor and fodder for some, but I'm sticking to the statement. What's so magical about 4 to 5 years?  Coaches have done rebuilds in faster time.  

My rationale on the timing is simple.  Time is a great tool to judge, usually the longer the duration the better until you reach a point of diminishing returns.  We can use marriages, personal relationships, careers, or host of other life experiences to prove out the point.  The longer one must judge a body of work, usually they will either prove themselves or not.  At some point, you know.

For college coaches you must give him or her a reasonable chance to succeed and fail.  Four to five years means several recruiting classes of the coach cycle through all four years. Therefore, most coaching contracts start out 4 to 5 years in duration.  That time horizon also eliminates the cupboard is full or bare situation from the previous coach.  It avoids the Charlie Weiss / Kevin Olie phenomenon, while also giving credit to schools like Loyola who stuck it out for the likes of Porter Moser.  You see, Moser had a losing record in each of his first three years at Loyola, even taking a step backward in year three.  It wasn't until year four that the Ramblers broke through.  Yes, Moser had success two jobs ago, but lacked that formula in his second job.  It happens, sometimes that school isn't right, and you move on.  Charlie Weis went 9-3 and 10-3 his first two years at Notre Dame, for which he was rewarded with a monster contract.  The Fighting Irish didn't wait the 4 to 5 years to judge and made a huge mistake as Weis floundered to at 16-21 record his final three years.  There is an endless list of examples on both ends of the spectrum, including some of these names that started out slow and then lit the world on fire: Frank Beamer, Coach K at Duke, Tom Landry at the Cowboys, and so many others.  

Which brings us to Marquette and year five of Wojo's tenure.  Expectations have risen, fans are ready for the breakthrough season, some are starting to reach for the knives while others hold on to waning patience.  

Time to panic or are we right on schedule?  

For starters, where are we?  Marquette is 4-2 and ranked 36th in Ken Pomeroy ratings, 26th in Sagarin, and 24th in Warren Nolan ELO rankings.  Those are decent ratings and highest in the Wojo era if they stay that way.  Our losses are to soon-to-be #1 ranked Kansas and on the road at soon-to-be ranked Indiana.  One could argue that probably all but 10 teams in the country were going 4-2 with the early schedule MU has played. Proof coming from Tennessee and Michigan State losses to KU and Assembly Hall's ability to devour high ranked opponents for decades.  It's not that we lost, "it's how we lost and how we looked" is the popular refrain from some fans.  Did we look bad, or did two good teams make us look bad?  A few fans point to Presbyterian College game as further proof.  Or the views that despite being 4-2, we don't look very good.  Are they wrong?  Is it panic time, or are we right on schedule?

Another popular theme....in year five, we shouldn't be making the mistakes we are making.  Perhaps they are on to something...perhaps.  This is not the same team as last year.  We lost our top scorer and assist leader in Andrew Rowsey.  We lost his senior leadership, too.  This year we have one senior, a work his-ass-off heady Matt Heldt who will do most of his leadership in practice with limited minutes on the court.  We are lucky to have Mr. Heldt.   Rowsey's departure and Heldt's reduced role has meant integrating newcomers Joe Chartouny, Ed Morrow, Joey Hauser and Brendan Bailey quickly.  Through the first six games, those four new players are involved significantly:

• 35% of the minutes played
• scoring 28% of the points scored
• grabbing 31% of the rebounds
• dishing out 41% of the assists

Not immaterial by any stretch, but they need to do more, and they need to get up to speed quickly for MU to have success this season.  Morrow and Chartouny were expected to deliver immediately, thus far it has been spotty and inconsistent.

The defense has improved, and the offense has slumped.  Will the trade-off offset each other enough to bring meaningful success?  

Did Wojo bite off more than he should have with the schedule?  Marquette has three ranked teams coming up in the next 14 days, all of them at the Fiserv Forum.  Plenty of coaches would have chosen an easier schedule to rack up a few more wins to start the season.  We are going to know a lot more about this club come December 8th, and more still come January 8th.  Tip of the hat to the program for scheduling up because they didn't have to.

It is still awfully early to panic, but I'm sticking to my 4 to 5 years judge.  Wojo needs to get the team to gel, make them tougher, more fluid, less selfish at times and highly competitive. The return of Elliott may help, or it may add another player into a rotation that needs to find consistency.  Here's hoping Wojo and the team can get it figured out.  This is a talented team at many positions, my worry is they may not be talented enough at the most important position in college basketball....the point guard spot.   If MU fails to meet expectations, it may be time to think differently. My heart says this team will figure it out and will rise to the occasion.  My head is still wavering.....important two weeks coming up.

Oh boy, looks like we might have to put the pessimistic hats back on

Well, the tone for this week's podcast is going to be considerably darker than last weeks when we were all seashells and balloons. The Indiana game was one of the more frustrating of the Wojo era and we have a therapy session about it. We talk about what went wrong, is it more of the same or a blip, and whether 13 minutes at the end of Presbyterian gives us a sign of hope or simply the light at the end of the tunnel which turns out to be a train coming at us. We then pivot to the match up with Kansas and try to imagine scenarios where MU doesn't get boatraced and how critical the Tennessee/Louisville match-up is to saving the non-conference season (yep, we're there already). We close out with the Big East having a no good, very bad non-conference season to date and why it's critical for the Big East to get its stuff together. We promise this is a fun version of wallowing in self-pity :) Enjoy! *Apologizes for the 30 seconds of bad audio at the 1:30 mark, wasn't there live and there was no way to fix it.

Warm-ups are over, It's Indiana, It's Indiana

#mubb looked good but not great in the opening two games of the season so we're here to break it down. The defense is better, fact or fiction, is up for debate in the first half of the podcast. We close out the podcast with an analysis of the early season ranked match up and whether MU has a shot at the W. Quick podcast for this week, just getting into our regular season grove. Enjoy! https://scrambledeggs.podbean.com/mf/play/u9bwha/ScrambledEggs_editted_111218.mp3

Season kick-off pod for what we insist will be a good season for #MUBB

We're back for a new season of #mubb....the leaves are on the ground, all of our baseball teams have faded out of the post season and it is highly likely that your football team is disappointing you, which means we've pumped to talk about Marquette basketball. It's been a minute since our last pod so we catch up on the most important news, like Greg Elliott being out for 8-12 weeks and Big East media day. We then jump into our annual schedule review shenanigans where at least one of us tries to find a way MU will go undefeated. Bit of a spoiler, for once both of us are bullish on the Marquette schedule results. We wrap up the pod with a new "game" inspired by 10 Things I Hate About You, which players will leave us underwhelmed, overwhelmed, and just plain whelmed. Get ready the season is upon us and the next time you hear from us will be to review the results of the first two games of the season. Enjoy!

Southern Preview

Southern Jaguars
December 28, fiserv.forum

Coach: Sean Woods (0-0 at Southern, 127-150 overall)
3-Year RPI Average: 277.3
3-Year kenpom Average: 293.7
2018-19 T-Rank Projection: 350
Projected Starters: PG Eddie Reese (6'1" Sr), SG Cam Horton (6'1" So), SF Aaron Ray (6'3" Sr), PF Bryan Assie (6'7" Jr), C Hassan Hussein (6'9" Sr)

According to T-Rank, Southern is the worst team on the schedule & one of only two sub-300 teams Marquette will face this year. Southern lost a lot; their leading scorer & rebounder graduated, their third leading scorer transferred, & 4 other players graduated. Reese is the only returning player that averaged over 16 mpg. This is a roster of mostly backups & JUCO players.

If there is any reason for optimism at Southern, it is Sean Woods. This is his second tour through the SWAC, having taken Mississippi Valley State from 7 wins in his 2009 debut season to a 17-1 conference record & NCAA berth in 2012. Woods followed that up with four successful seasons at Morehead State in which his team was top-half of the league each year & made the CBI twice (including losing the championship-deciding game in overtime in 2016). The next season, Woods was accused of assaulting two of his players & resigned. After a season as an assistant at Stetson, Woods is back in a head chair. While his character may have some question marks, his coaching results do not. He improved win totals every year at MVSU & had 15+ wins every year at Morehead State. Since his arrival at Southern, he moved quickly to secure commitments from productive JUCO players like Horton, Assie, Osa Wilson, & Miles Gibson. Woods also added grad transfer Hassan Hussein from Florida International.

It's hard to know what to expect from this year's Southern team. Woods loved to press the pace for years, but had his most successful season at Morehead State with a slow-down system. One thing that his teams always do is crash the glass hard on both ends, & with three JUCO additions that averaged 5.9+ rpg as well as big-body Hussein, that will likely be Woods' calling card again. Defensively, Woods stresses turnovers. His Morehead State teams were top-50 in steal percentage all four years he was there. The downside to that is their physical style leads to a lot of fouls. Expect a very physical game from Southern.

It's hard to know how good this mishmash of players will be, but Marquette is the far more talented & experienced team. If Southern finds success, it likely will be later in the season once they get into conference play & the players have had time to come together. This should be a comfortable win for Marquette.

Marquette Connection: This isn't Sean Woods' first road trip to play Marquette. He brought his Mississippi Valley State team here on December 21, 2010. Jae Crowder led Marquette with 22 points in a 102-77 rout of the Delta Devils. At the time, it dropped MVSU to 1-10 on the season, but from there Woods turned the season & his coaching career around. His team went 12-6 in conference play and finished the season 13-19. The next year he brought MVSU to the NCAA Tournament.

It's an offseason pod, but basketball is definitely in the air

The audio quality might not be the best because of some technical glitches but we think the pod turned out pretty good away. We got together to catch up on the latest offseason news and highlights, starting with recruiting news. We discuss the Derrik Akanno commitment and our feelings about Nico Mannion picking from MU and Arizona as his final two. We then transition to a review of the new home from #MUBB basketball, the Fiserv Forum and what kind of advantage it will provide in the years to come. We close out the pod with a quick tour of notable non-conference games now that it has been fully announced, including the showdown with probable Number 1 team in the country, Kansas. As always, enjoy!

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Buffalo Preview

Buffalo Bulls
December 21, fiserv.forum

Coach: Nate Oats (64-39 at Buffalo)
3-Year RPI Average: 87.3
3-Year kenpom Average: 109.0
2018-19 T-Rank Projection: 91
Projected Starters: PG Davonta Jordan (6'2" Jr), SG Dontay Caruthers (6'1" Sr), SF C.J. Massinburg (6'3" Sr), PF Jeremy Harris (6'7" Sr), C Nick Perkins (6'8" Sr)

Buffalo stunned the college basketball world last March when they defeated Arizona in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. While some picked the 13-seed to advance, few expected the 89-68 drubbing the Bulls put on the Wildcats. Nate Oats' squad returns 3 players that averaged 15+ ppg & 4 starters from that team.

Massinburg was the biggest star last year, averaging 17.0 ppg/7.3 rpg, but he wasn't the only stud. Perkins (16.2/6.0) & Harris (15.5/5.9) complete an undersized but exciting frontcourt. Not only that, all three are threats to step outside as they combined for 212 made three-pointers. Depth isn't a problem as they have two 6'10" seniors on the bench. The backcourt must replace Wes Clark (15.5 ppg/5.4 apg) but Jordan, Caruthers, & Jayvon Graves played major minutes last season & freshman Jeenathan Williams provides size & athleticism.

The mindset for Buffalo going into this will be that speed can equalize size. They play very fast & more often than not all five players on the floor will be capable of handling the ball. Buffalo can score efficiently inside or outside & they don't turn the ball over often. On defense, they play tight man that can lead to fouls but they excel at chasing opponents off the three point line & make teams work for every shot. Buffalo had an average defensive possession length of 18.0 seconds, which was 291st in the nation & by far the best of any team in the top-20 in tempo (Marshall was next, ranked 208th at 17.5 seconds). What that means is that while Buffalo will strike fast on offense, they will dog you to the end of the shot clock on defense.

After a NCAA win last year & returning everyone but one player, I think Buffalo might be underrated coming into the season, at least by T-Rank. They comfortably won the MAC at 15-3 last year (12/15 wins by double-digits, all 3 losses by 3 points or less) & the gap between them & the rest of the league will likely be wider this year. They also are challenging themselves in the non-conference; along with Marquette, they play at 2018 NCAA Tourney teams West Virginia, Syracuse, & St. Bonaventure. This team would be a great scalp for NET & resume purposes, but will also be a tremendous challenge.

Marquette Connection: This trip will likely be a special one for Buffalo Associate Head Coach Jim Whitesell. After working his way up to a D1 coaching job at Loyola-Chicago, Whitesell was shocked when he was fired by a new AD in 2011 & replaced by then-St. Louis assistant Porter Moser. Fortunately for Whitesell, Marquette alum Rick Majerus quickly hired him at St. Louis into the same position Moser had just vacated. Alongside Majerus, Whitesell earned the Associate Head Coach title & helped guide the Billikens back to the NCAA Tournament. He stayed at SLU after Majerus' death to help new coach Jim Crews & they returned to the NCAA Tournament the next year.

North Dakota Preview

North Dakota Fighting Hawks
December 18, fiserv.forum

Coach: Brian Jones (178-197 at North Dakota)
3-Year RPI Average: 195.3
3-Year kenpom Average: 202.0
2018-19 T-Rank Projection: 253
Projected Starters: PG Marlon Stewart (6'3" Jr), SG Billy Brown (6'3" Jr), SF Cortez Seales (6'4" Sr), PF Kienan Walter (6'9" Jr), C Conner Avants (6'7" Sr)

The Fighting Hawks suffered a big blow when star guard Geno Crandall grad transferred to Gonzaga. They do return three double-digit scorers in Stewart, Seales, & Avants, but while they have an experienced starting five, it will be mostly freshmen providing the depth as starting center Dale Jones graduated & two other bench players -- Jafar Kinsey & Garrett Franken -- transferred in the offseason.

The other big move for UND is stepping up to the Summit League. Jones' Fighting Hawks were successful in the big Sky, winning double-digit league games 4 times & earning a NCAA bid in 2017. In their new league, T-Rank picks UND 6th out of 9 Summit League teams. Last year, UND suffered significantly due to poor scheduling fortune in the Big Sky. Included in the 7 teams they played twice were the top-5 teams in the league & they went 1-9 in those games. Playing a balanced schedule in the Summit should help them as while they will have fewer games (16) it will be an even balance of top and bottom teams.

As far as what to expect from North Dakota, Jones' teams play at a blistering pace. They have finished top-40 in tempo for the past 4 years. Offensively, this is a team that thrives on driving. They'll take some threes, but even when they have had their better shooting teams they still focus on getting the ball inside. On defense, they limit opponent rebounds, generate turnovers, & use that to get the ball back up the floor fast

Marquette Connection: Cortez Seales was a standout on the Iowa Barnstormers AAU travel team before earning his scholarship to North Dakota. Not only was that the same travel team Joey Hauser would eventually play for, one of Joey's teammates on that Barnstormer team was Seales' younger brother, Corvon. Corvon Seales enrolls this year at Division II Minnesota State.

UW-Madison Preview

UW-Madison Badgers
December 8, fiserv.forum

Coach: Greg Gard (57-36 at UW-Madison)
3-Year RPI Average: 61.7
3-Year kenpom Average: 43.0
2018-19 T-Rank Projection: 22
Projected Starters: PG D'Mitrik Trice (6'0" Jr), SG Brad Davison (6'3" So), SF Brevin Pritzl (6'3" Jr), PF Khalil Iverson (6'5" Sr), C Ethan Happ (6'10" Sr)

Pundits are believing in this UW-Madison team that returns nearly everyone. Trice & Kobe King return from injury, transfer Trevor Anderson will be eligible, & sophomores Nate Reuvers & Aleem Ford earned valuable experience last year. That said, this team did have a losing record when Trice & King were injured & finished with a losing record at the end of the year. While Gard has a likely preseason All-American in Happ & a wealth of options, no one else has yet proven they can be the Robin to Happ's Batman on a winning team.


Stylistically, little has changed for this team since Bo Ryan retired. Play the game at a painfully slow pace & stick rigidly to man-to-man defense. The Badgers averaged 20.6 seconds per offensive possession last year; only Virginia spent more time on the ball on offense. Offensively, they had their second worst team of the advanced stats era, largely because they didn't have many reliable shooters; only Aleem Ford shot over 36% from deep. They also had their worst defensive team in Pomeroy's rankings because they couldn't stop anyone inside. Last year's Badgers were the first UW-Madison team since 2002 to allow over 50% on 2PFGs.


While many expect this team to bounce right back to being the reliable tournament team they were to start the century, I'm not convinced. The Big 10 will be better this year, with both Michigan State looking like a top-tier team & a plethora of other teams that feel they can legitimately contend for a tournament berth. Even when UW-Madison was healthy last year, they weren't good & benefited heavily from a soft conference schedule that saw them go 5-5 against sub-50 kenpom teams but only 2-6 against top-50 teams.

The idea that a year of experience will take a team from not sniffing the NIT to top-25 & safely in the NCAA Tournament seems like a stretch. As mentioned in the Indiana preview, after Michigan State there are 11 Big 10 teams projected from 20-52 in T-Rank. The league will likely beat up on itself & shouldn't expect more than 7 bids, which leaves most likely 5 of those teams in the top-52 on the outside of the NCAA field looking in. Expect UW-Madison to be fighting a battle to the bubble all year long. It's a coin flip if they get in & not nearly the guarantee most experts seem to think it is.


Marquette Connection: UW-Madison is Marquette's most common opponent, & with rare exception the teams have played every season since the late 1920s. The most notable exception was a period from 1954-1957 when they didn't meet at all. Before then, UW-Madison had handily controlled the series, leading 36-18. The reason for the break in the series was because after one week of school in 1951, UW-Madison freshmen Rube Schulz & Doug Gill left campus, drove to Milwaukee, & flipped their commitments by transferring to Marquette. UW-Madison coach Bud Foster was so upset that he took Marquette off the schedule. The transfers paid off big for Marquette. In 1952, Marquette won the National Catholic Tournament. 3 years later, Schulz helped lead MU to their first ever NCAA Tournament, knocking off Miami (OH) & Kentucky en route to the Elite 8. Since the series was renewed in 1958, Marquette holds a 40-31 advantage.

UTEP Preview

UTEP Miners
December 4, fiserv.forum

Coach: Rodney Terry (First season at UTEP, 126-108 overall)
3-Year RPI Average: 243.3
3-Year kenpom Average: 218.3
2018-19 T-Rank Projection: 280
Projected Starters: PG Evan Gilyard (5'10" So), SG Kobe Magee (6'1" So), SF Jordan Lathon (6'4" Fr), PF Paul Thomas (6'8" Sr), C Teddy Ochieng (6'8" Fr)

The deeper the Miners get into Rodney Terry's first year, the more disappointing they look on the schedule. The top-two scorers & top rebounder graduated. Then a pair of freshmen & a grad student transferred out. When four-star freshman Lathon committed, it looked like things were turning around, but the same day leading returning scorer Isiah Osborne transferred as well. What's left is a pair of supplementary scorers in Gilyard & Thomas surrounded by mostly freshmen. Terry has a number of quality transfers on the roster, to the point that the scout team might beat the first team, but they won't be eligible until next season.

Under Tim Floyd, the Miners were a solid buy game, posting winning records in 5/7 seasons. Last season they started 0-5 under Floyd, who departed leaving interim coach Phil Johnson to guide UTEP to their lowest kenpom ranking since 2003 at #240. With all the turnover that trend will likely continue.

Terry is a good coach; he made a NCAA Tournament at Fresno State & posted improved season ratings on Pomeroy & T-Rank each of the past 3 years with both rankings having the Bulldogs in the top-80 last year. With a young, inexperienced roster, I expect Terry will follow the same formula that he started with at Fresno. Slow the game down, defend like hell, & hope you can make enough threes to stay competitive. In early interviews, he said he wanted his teams to play tough defense & up-tempo offense, but it's hard to see that happening this year with such a thin roster.

In 2-3 years, UTEP will likely be a good buy game & Terry could very well have them competing at the top of C-USA. For now, this is a program in transition that will just be a comfortable speed bump ahead of the Wisconsin game.

Marquette Connection: The two schools have only played once & that was a Marquette victory in 1963, however these two teams do have a connection. In 2013-14 and 2014-15, Marquette's Ed Morrow and UTEP's Evan Gilyard were teammates on the Chicago Simeon basketball team. They went 44-10 in those two seasons, including a 27-3 season in 2014-15 when Simeon was the #2 ranked team in the state of Illinois. For Gilyard, this trip to Milwaukee will not only be close to home, it will be a reunion with former teammate Morrow.

Kansas State Preview

Kansas State Wildcats
December 1, fiserv.forum

Coach: Bruce Weber (125-80 at Kansas State, 438-235 overall)
3-Year RPI Average: 66.3
3-Year kenpom Average: 42.3
2018-19 T-Rank Projection: 25
Projected Starters: PG Kamau Stokes (6'0" Sr), SG Barry Brown (6'3" Sr), SF Cartier Diarra (6'4" So), PF Xavier Sneed (6'5" Jr), C Dean Wade (6'10" Sr)

Ever since Bill Self arrived in Lawrence, the season starts with a small handful of teams that dream of prying the Big 12 title from the Jayhawks. This year, Kansas State is at the top of that list. Expectations are high in Manhattan as Bruce Weber returns everyone from a team that went to the Elite 8. This looks like the best team Weber has had since he took the KSU job. Brown considered the NBA but came back & along with Wade gives the Wildcats two legitimate all-conference players. Not only that, but everyone else in the league lost significant pieces, so KSU could benefit from a down Big 12, similar to how Marquette fans are hoping a down Big East might make a rise up the standings a bit smoother.

However, when you dig into KSU's resume last year, there are some warts. Their only non-conference wins of note were over Georgia & Vanderbilt teams that didn't make the NIT. They did win 10 games in the Big 12, but went 0-7 against the true heavyweights at the top (Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech). And their Elite 8 appearance was aided by playing a 16-seed in the second round and narrowly escaping a woeful shooting Kentucky team. While the Wildcats return a lot, the heights they reached last year were a bit of a fluke & those expecting this to be a top-10 to 15 team may need to temper expectations a bit.

Offensively, this Kansas State team likes to spread the floor. Brown is the team leader on a group that can put four guards on the floor to open up driving lanes & dump it in to Wade. It helps that the big man is a 44% shooter from distance to stretch defenses. Weber's teams are patient on offense. With so many guards, they will keep moving the ball for the best shot. Despite being guard-oriented, this is not a team of multiple three-point threats. Expect the Wildcats to get most of their points inside the arc. Defensively, the Wildcats play stout man-to-man defense that thrives on creating turnovers. Their Achilles' Heel is rebounding, though they hope to see that change with the addition of JUCO transfer Austin Trice. If Trice can keep the defensive glass clean, KSU could meet their lofty expectations.

One interesting note about a team coming off an Elite 8 is that not all fans in Manhattan are happy with Weber's job. Some were hoping he wouldn't make the NCAA Tournament last year in hopes he'd be fired. It will be interesting to see which camp is proven right this season -- the pro-Weber camp that thinks they can compete for a Big 12 title or the anti-Weber camp that was disappointed in an Elite 8 run that secured his job for the near-future.

Marquette Connection: Marquette fans fondly remember the 1977 Championship season, but younger fans may not know how close Al McGuire's run came to ending in the Sweet 16 against Kansas State. The Wildcats won the Big 8 Regular Season & Tournament titles & led Marquette 36-28 at the half. The Warriors battled back, using their size to wear down the smaller Wildcats. Marquette lead 67-64 with less than a minute to play when the Wildcats' 6'5" center Darryl Winston tipped in a miss & simultaneously drew a foul on 6'10" Bo Ellis, seemingly indicating a bucket-and-one opportunity that would allow the Wildcats to tie it at the line. However, due to the NCAA rule at the time, tipped shots were not considered controlled shots. The ref waved off the basket & Winston went to the line. He drew KSU to within a point at 67-66. Marquette was then able to run out the clock & march on to the Elite 8 & ultimately the National Championship. After the season ended, the NCAA Rules Committee overturned that rule. The new "Winston Rule" meant fouls on a made tip-in would result in an and-one opportunity.