It was a rough, but not unexpected week for #mubb

Well, it wasn't the week we were hoping for (especially against Xavier) but it also did nothing to damage #mubb tournament chances. We start with the most recent game against Villanova (most because neither one of really wanted to talk about the Xavier boondoggle). We talk about what the performance against Villanova and whether the loss is the fault of the officiating (spoiler alert, they didn't help but they weren't to blame). We also discuss why we can't get the Tres Amigios to play well at the same time. To cleanse the palate a little we highlight the continuing improvement from Harry Froling and Sacar Amin, who both had an excellent game. To wrap up the podcast we spend some time analyzing the up coming week with critical home games against Butler and Providence. We give predictions, one us thinks the team goes 2-0 and it's not who you think. As always, enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Break is over, time to get back to the grind for #mubb

It was a seemingly very long 9 day break from Marquette basketball, but they're back this week and so is the podcast. For having 9 days off we sure have a lot to talk about. First, we have the pleasant surprise of Joey Hauser (you may know his brother) 2018 commit actually enrolling in school this semester and taking a voluntary red shirt so he'll have 4 years of eligibility starting in the fall. We spend talking about that and whether it's a good or great thing. We then spend as little time as possible reviewing the actual DePaul game which may have been the worst game #mubb played all season. Then we talk about the tough upcoming week with a road trip to Xavier and a big home clash with national #1 Villanova. We discuss what we expect to be different in these repeat match-ups and look ahead to the rest of the schedule to determine just how important this week is. We close out by giving our predictions and highlighting the need for one of Marquette's own Tori McCoy. As detailed by Anonymous Eagle() Tori needs a kidney transplant and Marquette has started a GoFundMe(GoFundMe) to support her. If you can please support Tori in her time of need. On that note, let's go out and one at least one of these games and start the second half of the conference season off on a great note. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

We got what we needed out of the past week, let's beat DePaul and rest up

#mubb went 1-1 this week and looked great against Seton Hall while reverting to defensive form against Butler so we're going to declare that a successful but not spectacular week. We're going to start with the good and discuss they shockingly great defensive effort against the top team in the Big East(at the time) Seton Hall. We try to understand what changed and how it can be carried into future games. What is clear is that #mubb would not carry it into the next game against Butler where the interior defense was more useless than the Maginot line (yes that's a WWII joke, whatever). We discuss the Butler game and what went wrong and what positives we can take away from it. A positive we can take away from that game and the season really, has been the play of Sam Hauser. Seemingly lost in the flashy play of the lead guards for Marquette, Sam has managed to put together a strong offensive game while also being our best interior defender if not best defender period. So we talk about how efficient his offense has been. We also have a shotout for Matt Heldt, most efficient man in the NCAA. We wrap up the podcast with a discussion of the DePaul(just don't lose to them) and some odds and ends. As always, enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

So we should probably spend some time talking about Markus Howard

So the week turned out exactly how we thought it would, #mubb went 1 and 1 with a win over Providence and a tough loss to Villanova, ho hum not much to talk about. Just kidding, of course we are going to carry on for 25 minutes about Markus Howard's historic 52 point performance and his equally impressive 37 points and 8 assists against Villanova. In fact, we spend time talking about where the performance against Providence ranks in modern MU single player performance pantheon. Once even we've had enough of talking about Markus, we do breakdown the Providence and Villanova games to talk about what we liked and didn't like from the games. Finally, we turn ahead to this week, which is another must go 1 and 1 week, previewing the Seton Hall and Butler games. I'd take another 89 points from Markus this week, but let's hope we don't have to for at least one win. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Happy New Year and mostly happy start to Big East play

Happy New Year! Hope everyone has recovered from the holidays and is ready to talk #mubb basketball. First we discuss the old year, and the mixed results of the first two games of conference play. We break down the Xavier and Georgetown games including is the defense getting better and how worried should we be about Markus Howard's slump. We then transition to the new year and the brutal next 7 games on Marquette's schedule and what our expectations should be. We then get into a conversation about the next two games, @Providence and @Villanova and our expectations for those games. We close out the pod with a brief remembrance of broadcast legend, Dick Enberg, who had multiple connections to Marquette. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

If Bids Went to Players Instead of Teams: Rowsey v. Bridges and Hauser v. UCLA's Welsh

As I ran the Value Add Basketball Numbers to finish out the 2017 calendar year, one thing became apparent - if the season ended today Oklahoma's Trae Young would be the best college player OF THE CENTURY, which clearly gives Oklahoma the best athletic duo of the century since Baker Mayfield takes the field against Georgia today as one of the top five football players of the century.

Last season I insisted Sindarius Thornwell of South Carolina was the best player in the country and then Marquette drew him in the opening round - but Young is much better than him and after going into #10 TCU and upsetting them 90-89 with a 39 point, 14 assist game, these guy edges out even Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant for the most dominant college player of the century based on the history Value Add rankings.

This made me think about just how prohibitive a favorite Young would be if the NCAA bids were for a one-on-one tournament and you could somehow factor in his assists, which obviously necessitate playing on a team.

I went ahead and sent out bids to both the NIT and NCAA based on the new Value Add numbers, but also giving the best player in each conference an automatic bid, and ended up with great match-ups for Marquette's two top 100 players (with the streaky Markus Howard out of the top 100 for the moment.

Of course, Michigan State fans will cry foul that Value Add ratings would currently place Andrew Rowsey as the slighly favored No. 4 seed in the NIT Western bracket against their National Player of the Year hopeful. However, Rowsey has been worth an extra 7.33 points per game to Marquette this year to an almost identical 7.27 for Miles Bridges. Great players tend to rank lower earlier in a season of blowouts since the minutes are spread.

A Georgetown fan texted me after Saturday's game to ask, "Who is Andrew Rowsey and give me one good reason I should not hate him." While his defense is not great (note he gets a "D" for defensive rebounding, C for a few blocked shots, and B for steals) he and the rest of the team have improved enough that he is currently the 67th most valuable player in the country, and therefore would be in an at-large "player" March Madness except that we gave the smaller conferences one team each. Bridges will shoot up now facing tougher Big Ten opponents, but when www.kenpom.com says Bridges has only been the best player in 1 of 15 games so far, and Value Add adjusts for strength of opponents (the Spartans last six opponents have been ranked 310, 106, 295, 238, 302, 330).

Seed	NIT Midwest Seeds	Team	Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game	Def Grades
1	Jaylen Barford #0	Arkansas	7.53	Reb Blk Stl=C C B
2	Trevon Bluiett #5	Xavier	7.48	Reb Blk Stl=B C D
3	Udoka Azubuike #35	Kansas	7.44	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
4	Andrew Rowsey #30	Marquette	7.33	Reb Blk Stl=D C B
5	Miles Bridges #22	Michigan St.	7.27	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
6	Jessie Govan #15	Georgetown	7.13	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
7	Nick Ward #44	Michigan St.	7.04	Reb Blk Stl=A A F
8	Zhaire Smith #2	Texas Tech	7.01	Reb Blk Stl=C A A

OK, so I cheated a little and created one NIT play-in match-up since Hauser technically missed the last NIT spot as the 87 best player in basketball. This would put him up against Shannon Evans of the amazing Arizona State team of Bobby Hurley, for the right to play the top seed in the NIT West in big man Thomas Welsh of UCLA. As good as Hauser's all-around offense is every day, completely in the flow of the game, I also wanted to point out that he is one of the few that has a strong ranking in all three defensive categories, getting a "B" (top 40%) in Defensive Rebounding, Blocked Shots and Steals.

Seed	NIT West Seeds	Team	Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game	Def Grades
1	Thomas Welsh #40	UCLA	7.54	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
2	Elijah Bryant #3	Brigham Young	7.49	Reb Blk Stl=A B A
3	Shake Milton #1	Southern Methodist	7.47	Reb Blk Stl=C B A
4	Caleb Martin #10	Nevada	7.37	Reb Blk Stl=B C B
5	Justin Bibbins #1	Utah	7.23	Reb Blk Stl=D D B
6	Rob Gray #32	Houston	7.18	Reb Blk Stl=D D C
7	Chimezie Metu #4	Southern California	7.02	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
8-playin	Shannon Evans #11	Arizona St.	6.97	Reb Blk Stl=D D B
8-playin	Sam Hauser #10	Marquette	6.95	Reb Blk Stl=B B B

Fair to note that Ethan Happ had an All-American ranking until Matt Heldt slowed him down, and he has slipped a bit and would place as an NIT player at this stage. Max Strus of DePaul is looking strong after the incredible scare they put into Xavier.

Seed	NIT East Seeds	Team	Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game	Def Grades
1	Donte Grantham #32	Clemson	7.5	Reb Blk Stl=B B D
2	Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #22	Kentucky	7.48	Reb Blk Stl=D C A
3	Ethan Happ #22	Wisconsin	7.42	Reb Blk Stl=A B B
4	Tyus Battle #25	Syracuse	7.34	Reb Blk Stl=F C A
5	Max Strus #31	DePaul	7.24	Reb Blk Stl=D B A
6	Jared Terrell #32	Rhode Island	7.13	Reb Blk Stl=D F A
7	Tony Carr #10	Penn St.	7.07	Reb Blk Stl=C D B
8	Kevin Huerter #4	Maryland	7	Reb Blk Stl=C B D

Finally these would be our NIT bids to the south.

Seed	NIT South Seeds	Team	Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game	Def Grades
1	Jeremiah Martin #3	Memphis	7.56	Reb Blk Stl=C B A
2	Jordan McLaughlin #11	Southern California	7.49	Reb Blk Stl=D C A
3	Matt Rafferty #32	Furman	7.41	Reb Blk Stl=A B A
4	Melvin Frazier #35	Tulane	7.29	Reb Blk Stl=B B A
5	Wendell Carter #34	Duke	7.26	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
6	Terance Mann #14	Florida St.	7.11	Reb Blk Stl=C C B
7	Tyler Rawson #21	Utah	7.01	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
8	Marcquise Reed #2	Clemson	7	Reb Blk Stl=B F A

Shifting to the top 68 players in the hypothetical NCAA one-on-one tournament, Villanova continues to have two of the top eight players in the country, and with no undefeated teams remaining they still look like the best in the country - not just the Big East. St. John's and Shamorie Ponds have slipped a little after an extremely hot start.

Seed	NCAA East Seeds	Team	Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game	Def Grades
1	Jalen Brunson #1	Villanova	10.44	Reb Blk Stl=D F B
2	Mikal Bridges #25	Villanova	9.83	Reb Blk Stl=B A A
3	Nick King #5	Middle Tennessee	9.61	Reb Blk Stl=A D D
4	Tookie Brown #4	Georgia Southern	9.29	Reb Blk Stl=C B A
5	Ajdin Penava #11	Marshall	8.9	Reb Blk Stl=A A A
6	Landry Shamet #11	Wichita St.	8.49	Reb Blk Stl=D C C
7	Fletcher Magee #3	Wofford	8.37	Reb Blk Stl=F D C
8	Zach Thomas #23	Bucknell	8.18	Reb Blk Stl=A B C
9	Shamorie Ponds #2	St. John's	8.06	Reb Blk Stl=B D A
10	Kevin Hervey #25	Texas Arlington	7.9	Reb Blk Stl=A B A
11	CJ Massinburg #5	Buffalo	7.85	Reb Blk Stl=B B C
12	Josh Reaves #23	Penn St.	7.74	Reb Blk Stl=D B A
13	Garrison Mathews #24	Lipscomb	7.51	Reb Blk Stl=C C B
14	Devin Cannady #3	Princeton	6.88	Reb Blk Stl=B D D
15	Joe Cremo #24	Albany	6.45	Reb Blk Stl=C D C
16	Isaiah Reese #13	Canisius	6.11	Reb Blk Stl=A F A

No freshman ever had a Value Add rating more than two points better than anyone else in the country. It is still a long season, but if Trae Young keeps this pace up he is the best college player of the century.

Seed	NCAA MWSeeds	Team	Value Add	Def Grades
1	Trae Young #11	Oklahoma	13.17	Reb Blk Stl=D C A
2	Bonzie Colson #35	Notre Dame	10.14	Reb Blk Stl=A A A
3	Gary Clark #11	Cincinnati	9.61	Reb Blk Stl=A A A
4	Devonte' Graham #4	Kansas	9.31	Reb Blk Stl=D D A
5	Justinian Jessup #3	Boise St.	8.7	Reb Blk Stl=B B B
6	Keita Bates-Diop #33	Ohio St.	8.53	Reb Blk Stl=A A B
7	Jordan Murphy #3	Minnesota	8.43	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
8	Anthony Cowan #1	Maryland	8.31	Reb Blk Stl=C D B
9	Josh Cunningham #0	Dayton	8	Reb Blk Stl=A B C
10	Dakota Mathias #31	Purdue	7.9	Reb Blk Stl=C C B
11	Cassius Winston #5	Michigan St.	7.85	Reb Blk Stl=C F B
12	James Thompson #2	Eastern Michigan	7.75	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
13	Blake Francis #3	Wagner	7.33	Reb Blk Stl=F D B
14	Scottie James #31	Liberty	6.71	Reb Blk Stl=A B B
15	Reed Timmer #12	Drake	6.45	Reb Blk Stl=D D D
16-playin	Femi Olujobi #25	North Carolina A&T	5.94	Reb Blk Stl=A B D
16-playin	Gary Blackston #3	Prairie View A&M	4.53	Reb Blk Stl=B C A

West Virginia's Jevon Carter is second best partly due to being an incredible defender.

Seed	NCAA South Seeds	Team	Value Add v5.0	Def Grades
1	Jevon Carter #2	West Virginia	11.03	Reb Blk Stl=B B A
2	Dean Wade #32	Kansas St.	9.88	Reb Blk Stl=A B A
3	Marvin Bagley #35	Duke	9.69	Reb Blk Stl=A B D
4	Luke Maye #32	North Carolina	9.37	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
5	Isaiah Wilkins #21	Virginia	8.96	Reb Blk Stl=A A A
6	Ria'n Holland #10	Mercer	8.57	Reb Blk Stl=D F A
7	Dewan Huell #20	Miami FL	8.47	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
8	Collin Sexton #2	Alabama	8.12	Reb Blk Stl=F F B
9	Kenrich Williams #34	Texas Christian	7.98	Reb Blk Stl=A C A
10	Chris Silva #30	South Carolina	7.89	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
11	Grayson Allen #3	Duke	7.8	Reb Blk Stl=F D B
12	Chris Chiozza #11	Florida	7.62	Reb Blk Stl=B F A
13	Dylan Windler #3	Belmont	7.26	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
14	Zach Lofton #23	New Mexico St.	6.59	Reb Blk Stl=B D C
15	Drew McDonald #34	Northern Kentucky	6.33	Reb Blk Stl=A C D
16	Devontae Cacok #15	North Carolina Wilmington	5.96	Reb Blk Stl=A B D

I am not sure if it is really allowed to have three of the four play-in games feed one bracket, but just having fun. DJ Hogg teams up with our old friend Duane Wilson, so the best of luck to them on an incredible start. We saw Georgia's Yante Maten, who couldn't quite win at Kentucky to help our RPI, and we will see Seton Hall and Desi Rodriguez of course.

Seed	NCAA West Seeds	Team	Value Add	Def Grades
1	Deandre Ayton #13	Arizona	10.96	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
2	Jock Landale #34	St. Mary's	10.29	Reb Blk Stl=A B F
3	Yante Maten #1	Georgia	9.58	Reb Blk Stl=B A D
4	Tra Holder #0	Arizona St.	9.18	Reb Blk Stl=C F A
5	Allonzo Trier #35	Arizona	8.61	Reb Blk Stl=F B D
6	Keenan Evans #12	Texas Tech	8.54	Reb Blk Stl=D B A
7	Lagerald Vick #2	Kansas	8.47	Reb Blk Stl=B C B
8	Juwan Morgan #13	Indiana	8.14	Reb Blk Stl=B A B
9	DJ Hogg #1	Texas A&M	8	Reb Blk Stl=B B B
10	Mohamed Bamba #4	Texas	7.94	Reb Blk Stl=A A C
11	Desi Rodriguez #20	Seton Hall	7.79	Reb Blk Stl=B B B
12-playin	Jeff Roberson #11	Vanderbilt	7.6	Reb Blk Stl=A C C
12-playin	Justin Tillman #4	Virginia Commonwealth	7.57	Reb Blk Stl=A B D
13-playin	Hayden Dalton #20	Wyoming	7.59	Reb Blk Stl=A B C
13-playin	Donta Hall #0	Alabama	7.58	Reb Blk Stl=A A D
14	Chima Moneke #11	UC Davis	6.8	Reb Blk Stl=A B B
15	Mike Daum #24	South Dakota St.	6.54	Reb Blk Stl=A B C
16-playin	Ahmaad Rorie #14	Montana	5.92	Reb Blk Stl=C D B
16-playin	Kevon Harris #1	Stephen F. Austin	5.44	Reb Blk Stl=B D C

And that's how it would play out if we were selecting the bids of the best player. Obviously you can sort the best of the Big East or anything else among the 4000-plus players at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

MU & Butler Project as 1st 2 Teams Out After Value Add Adjustment for Froling and All Other Injuries, Transfers worth 0.5 or more pts.

The following table seeds the NCAA March Madness Field based on each team's current rating at www.kenpom.com adjusted by the Value Add rating of each player who is returning or lost for the season.

The first number is the current KenPom Rating. If a player who helps or hurts a team by at least 0.50 points is listed in this blog, then that total is reflected in the second "change" number, and after those two numbers are added together they are multiplied by .70 to estimate how many points each team is better or worse than average. Villanova calculates as 21.46 points better than the average team, which would leave them with a 1-seed.

Marquette and Butler actually calculate as the first two teams out of the tournament with Froling projecting to help the team by 1.21 points to make MU 9.91 points better than the average team in the country.

Team	KenPom	Change	Pts above ave	Conf	Seed
Villanova	31.02		21.46	BE	1
Michigan St.	28.63		19.79	B10	1
North Carolina	22.22	5.64	19.25	ACC	1
Virginia	27.15		18.76	ACC	1
Duke	26.39		18.22	ACC	2
Arizona	21.43	4.61	17.98	P12	2
Purdue	25.71		17.75	B10	2
Kansas	24.84		17.14	B12	2
Texas A&M	24.25		16.73	SEC	3
West Virginia	22.56		15.54	B12	3
Clemson	19.23	3.15	15.42	ACC	3
Wichita St.	22.38		15.42	Amer	3
Cincinnati	22.3		15.36	Amer	4
Texas Tech	22.29		15.35	B12	4
Gonzaga	21.71		14.95	WCC	4
Miami FL	21.52		14.81	ACC	4
Seton Hall	20.02	1.48	14.80	BE	5
Oklahoma	21.19		14.58	B12	5
Kentucky	21.18		14.58	SEC	5
Xavier	21.08		14.51	BE	5
Florida St.	18.2	2.18	14.02	ACC	6
Saint Mary's	17.4	2.17	13.45	WCC	6
Baylor	18.33	1.10	13.35	B12	6
Arizona St.	19.25		13.23	P12	6
SMU	19.14		13.15	Amer	7
TCU	19.14		13.15	B12	7
Notre Dame	19.08		13.11	ACC	7
Arkansas	19.06		13.09	SEC	7
Louisville	16.82	1.98	12.91	ACC	8
Florida	16.91	1.64	12.74	SEC	8
Texas	17.3	1.12	12.64	B12	8
Tennessee	18		12.35	SEC	8
Nevada	17.83		12.23	MWC	9
Creighton	17.66		12.11	BE	9
USC	16.28	0.94	11.80	P12	9
St. Bonaventure	11.68	5.47	11.76	A10	9
St. John's	13.76	3.34	11.72	BE	10
Michigan	17.04		11.68	B10	10
Maryland	16.97		11.63	B10	10
Virginia Tech	16.51		11.31	ACC	10
Houston	15.72		10.75	Amer	11
Auburn	15.02		10.26	SEC	11
Penn St.	14.77		10.09	B10	12-Dayton
Alabama	13.27	1.40	10.02	SEC	12-Dayton
Minnesota	14.61		9.98	B10	12-Dayton
Kansas St.	14.57		9.95	B12	12-Dayton
Northern Iowa	6.97	4.91	8.06	MVC	11
Middle Tennessee	10.43		7.05	CUSA	11
Vermont	9.07		6.10	AE	12
College of Charleston	4.38	4.68	6.09	CAA	12
Northern Kentucky	8.42		5.64	Horz	13
UT Arlington	8.23		5.51	SB	13
Bucknell	6.02	1.37	4.92	Pat	13
South Dakota	7.35		4.90	Sum	13
Portland St.	3.32	3.43	4.48	BSky	14
New Mexico St.	6.67		4.42	WAC	14
East Tennessee St.	6.54		4.33	SC	14
Ohio	1.35	5.17	4.32	MAC	14
Belmont	5.62		3.68	OVC	15
Stephen F. Austin	4.25		2.73	Slnd	15
Iona	4.14		2.65	MAAC	15
Florida Gulf Coast	2.3	1.73	2.57	ASun	15
Princeton	4.02		2.56	Ivy	16
UC Santa Barbara	3.39		2.12	BW	16
St. Francis PA	-1.42	3.61	1.28	NEC	16-Dayton
UNC Asheville	2.17		1.27	BSth	16-Dayton
Texas Southern	-3.84		-2.94	SWAC	16-Dayton
Hampton	-8.5		-6.20	MEAC	16-Dayton
Butler	14.54		9.93	BE	1st 4 out
Marquette	13.3	1.21	9.91	BE	1st 4 out
Ohio St.	14.36		9.80	B10	1st 4 out
UCF	8.32	5.57	9.48	Amer	1st 4 out
Missouri	13.84		9.44	SEC	Next 4 out
Oregon	13.8		9.41	P12	Next 4 out
Rhode Island	13.21		9.00	A10	Next 4 out
Oklahoma St.	13.6	-0.61	8.84	B12	Next 4 out
Syracuse	12.89		8.77	ACC	3rd 4 out
Providence	10.57	1.84	8.44	BE	3rd 4 out
San Diego St.	12.13		8.24	MWC	3rd 4 out
Georgia	10.7	1.42	8.23	SEC	3rd 4 out

Finals Week means intro music and some conference analysis

Yes, you tuned into the right podcast it's just slightly more legitimate with intro and outro music. We spent our finals week wisely, hopefully the team did as well because there are a couple of buy games to tune up with then #mubb hits conference season running. With that in mind, we don't spend a lot of time talking about the match-ups with Northern Illinois and American but what impact we expect from Wojo's new toy: Harry Froling. We talk about what Harry's expectations should be and how it does or does not impact our expectations for the season. We also talk about the up coming conference season in general and the first couple of games against Xavier and Georgetown in specific. It'll be the last podcast unitl after Christmas, so happy holidays to everyone and as always, Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Bucky Beatdown

Not much to say, but that was a very satisfiying week for #mubb culminating in a dominating performance against in-state rival University of Wisconsin - Madison extension. Basically we relesh the victory and take stock of where the non-conference performance places the team. Let's get to it. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Go ahead and lie down on the couch, we're going to have a bit of a #mubb therapy session

Not to go full Nilihist Arby's but that was a painful loss for Marquette against Georgia. It was a game they needed to win and probably should have won but didn't. We break down the game as well as ask the question "What is wrong with Andrew Rowsey and can he be fixed?". We also spend a little time talking about what we liked from the game but spend most of the time talking about where this leaves the season and how concerned we are. We then looking to the future looking for hope and excitement that is #BadgerHateWeek and a game against Vermont. First up is the Vermont game where we try and figure out why Vermont has a decently ranked KenPom defense but still manages to not be good at a lot of defensive components. It's a must win for MU though and we discuss why. Then we roll into Saturday's big game against hated rival, Wisconsin. We spend a little time reviling in the fact that their basketball program isn't in great shape right now either and how we think the game will go on Saturday. Finally, we spend some time talking about Wojo's tenure at Marquette and whether the fire Wojo crowd will be satisfied this season and what concerns Wojo should have (hint: they won't and none). It's been a tough couple of games, but folks it's #BadgerHateWeek if you can't get excited for that, I don't know what the point is. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Good thing we didn't podcast on Sunday

Well, as we were all trying to get back into the swing of things after a long weekend of giving thanks and shopping, #mubb decided to jolt us all awake. Given the events of Monday we decided to move all the positive talk to the back end of the podcast and start with the more concerning. First, we talk about the almost disaster that was the Eastern Illinois game. Lots of excuses can be made but at the end the day, it was a really bad performance. One of those excuses is the unexpected announcement that Haanif Cheatham is leaving the program effectiv immediately. To say we were surprised is a mild understatement and we reflect on what this means for the team and the short/long term implications. We then turn to more positive thoughts and discuss the successful Maui Invitational appreance over Feastweek. We close out the podcast by prognosticating on the Chicago State and Georgia games, and what we think we will get out of the Haanif-less MU team. Buckle up, it'll be an interesting week. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Purdue gives us cause for concern but Maui will tell the tale

We're back for a new episode of Scrambled Eggs, which we start off by discussing the disappointing loss to Purdue at home. We talk about the game and whether it really means that nothing has changed with Marquette's defense. We then preview the Maui tournament and it's potential impact on Marquette's non-conference schedule. The discussion turns to the first game of the season, VCU and what we espect to see from that game and how concerned fans should be. Finally, we close out the pod by closing out the Quentin Grimes recruitment. Enjoy the Maui tournament and have a Happy Thanksgiving! Download this episode (right click and save)

Season has started, let's spend some time over analyzing it

The first game of the season is in the books so we should spend some time talking about it before we turn our attention to the big early season match up against Purdue. So for the first regular season podcsast, we spend time talking about Marquette beating up on "The Mount" and what is anything we can extropolate from it. After we spend a lot of time on the first game we transition to talk about the match up with Purdue and how we think that will go. Turning from the season we currently have, we discuss a recent survey that Marquette sent out about ticket pricing at the new stadium that was...curious. We close out the podcast by discussing where MU stands with Quentin Grimes and whether we feel good about it or not. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Buckle up kids, we've got a long Scrambled Eggs pre-season pod for you

It is still the preseason but the last couple of weeks have been action packed for #mubb so we ended up having a mega-Scrambled Eggs pod. First line of discussion, what we've actually seen from the team thanks to two events: Hurricane Relief fundraiser/exhibition against UW-Milwaukee and an open practice for season ticket holders. We talk about key take-aways from this team so far, are we more or less worried than when we had no observable facts, and who among the new comers will be key to this season. We then transition to early talk of the 2018 season, in the form of an on-campus visit for 2018 PG target Quentin Grimes. We talk about what to expect from the visit and afterwards, what Grimes committment or non-committment means to the team, and how to treat the whole thing with dignity (unlike fans/alumni of a certain university 80 miles west of Marquette). We then turn to the full schedule and do a game by game prediction with light analysis of how we see the season going (spoiler alert, Phil is way too optimistic as always and Joe is probably right). Go for a long run or take a road trip, because there is some material to dig through, but after this podcast you should be ready to go and excited for #mubb to start. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)

Big East Preview Extended to all 32 D1 Conferences - 32 links

For anyone who liked the preview of the Big East yesterday, and was curious about any other conference, here is my link to the rest:

As millions of college students settle on campus, they join alums in watching fellow students compete from the football stadiums to cross country courses such as those my twin Division 1 athletes run. Now www.valueaddbasketball.com rates more than 3,500 basketball players who can start practice in 12 days at Midnight Madness. Pick your conference from the 32 links below for a quick rundown of the top basketball players and teams with a comparison on how each football team ranks.

1. ACC: Duke Joins Louisville as National Contender with Bagley Signing
2. American Athletic: Ex-Football Big East Schools Add Basketball-only Wichita State
3. American East: Albany Chasing Vermont Again
4. Atlantic 10: St. Bonaventure Duo Could Challenge Dayton, Rhode Island and VCU
5. Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast Shoots for More Upsets If they can Hold Off Lipscomb
6. Big 12: TCU's Bursts into Football Title Hunt, Then Could Challenge in Toughest Hoops Conference
7. Big East - St. John's Most Likely to Replace MU to Give Big East 7 Bids Again, Unless MU Defense Improves
8. Big Sky: Top 100 Player Hall Leads Balanced Hoops Season after E. Washington Football Dominates
9. Big South: Asheville's Top 100 Duo One of Best, But Liberty a Balanced Threat
10. Big Ten: Purdue and Michigan State Ready to Seek Hoops Title After Other Big Ten Teams Shoot for Football Title
11. Big West Teams All Get to Visit Hawaii While Settling Balanced Hoops Season
12. Colonial Athletic Association: After JMU Football, Charleston and Elon Should Battle for March Madness Bid
13. Conference USA: UAB Returns to Football Field While Future NBA Star Leads Middle Tennessee
14. Horizon League: Hayes Leads 4 Oakland Stars to Potential Title
15. Ivy League: Princeton Builds on 23-7 Season to try to hold off Harvard and Yale for Title
16. MAAC: Iona Once Again Team to Beat with Edogi Transferring to Join McGill
17. Mid-American: Western Michigan Battles for Top Football and Basketball Teams and Top Hoops Player
18. Mid-Eastern Athletic's Morgan State Favorite to Dethrone NC Central Behind POY Kendley
19. Missouri Valley Teams Battle for Title with Wichita State's Departure, Valpo's Arrival
20. Mountain West: UNLV Edges Nevada in Tough Hoops Conference, While San Diego State Football Power
21. Northeast: 5-foot-5 Star Shoots for Player of Year, Repeat Title for Mt. St. Mary's
22. Ohio Valley:Jacksonville St. Football Dominance Builds on Hoops Upset of Belmont
23. Pac-12: USC Hoops Could Surpass Arizona Hoops and Even USC Football
24. Patriot - Bucknell Dominance of Patriot League Hoops Should Follow Army-Navy Classic
25. SEC: Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M and Mizzou Join Kentucky As 'Basketball' Schools This Year
26. Southern - Darryl Strawberry's Son Gives Mercer All-Southern Conference Duo, After Football Team Almost Shocks Auburn
27. Southland - Jalan West Given 7th Year for Quest for All-American Status and 1st Southland Title Over Stephen F. Austin
28. Summit League: Analytics See Denver Hoops Challenge to Dakota Schools That Dominate Football
29. Sun Belt: Lafayette or Georgia Southern Could Deny Troy and Arlington Repeat Hoops Titles
30. SWAC: Jerry Rice and Grambling NFL Greats Yield to March Madness Hopes
31. WAC - 33 Years After Football National Title, WAC Hosts 1st For-Profit Basketball School
32. West Coast: After Football BYU Will Challenge Basketball-only St. Mary's & Gonzaga

Corrections are welcome. Simply email pudnerjohn@takeback.org or call or text 404.606.3163. You are welcome to use links or site top players on any list as “Value Add All-Conference Players.” The first five players on each list are 1st team All-Conference players, the sixth through 10th are 2nd team, and the 11th through 15th are third team based on the actual additional points they add to their team. In most cases, this ranking is similar to what sports writers or sports information directors would perceive, but players can come off the bench with incredibly efficient three-point shooting or dominance around the basket that makes them more valuable than starters who are not as efficient. You can always run your own search of projections for current players or ratings for all players since the 2001-02 season by going to www.valueaddbasketball.com.

St. John's Most Likely to Replace MU to Give Big East 7 Bids Again, Unless MU Defense Improves

This is one of 32 conference previews based on projections of Value Add for each player in www.valueaddbasketball.com. The other 31 projections appear at www.pudnersports.com so that readers only interested in the Big East need not review.

Each piece follows the same format, listing the Massey football ratings alongside the Value Add basketball projections. In the case of the Big East, Villanova's strong FCS team ranks ahead of a number of the 129 FBS teams as the 111th best overall football program. Butler and Georgetown also play football, and are ranked 363rd and 312th of all college teams.

Of the seven Big East teams that made the tournament last year, Value Add projects all but Marquette to return to the tournament, while St. John's is likely to replace Marquette as the seventh team (currently misses by only a couple of spots as the projected 52nd best team). Only nine of Villanova's players have projected values now, so their projections should rise to a Top 10 level, but right now they are edged out by Providence.

Here is where Value Add ranks each Big East team for the season, and the Massey Rankings rank the football teams against all other schools. Updates will be provided here as well as the previews of the other 31 conferences.

Big East/2017 Seed	ValueAdd	Football
Providence 11	19
Villanova 1	20	111
Seton Hall 9	22
Xavier 11	27
Butler 4	36	363
Creighton 6	47
Saint John's	52
Marquette 10	72
Georgetown	141	312
DePaul	158

Marquette's trio of Markus Howard (171st), Andrew Rowsey (207th) and Sam Hauser (256th) all rank in the top 7 percent of all players. Value Add assigns some of the blame for the horrid defense last year to all players, so any improvement in team defense will lift all players, but if the team continues to try to trade good three-point shooting with uncontested dunks on the other end the defensive ratings will continue to hold down player ratings.

More important of course, is that the high powered only needs an adequate defense to push Marquette back into the tournament.

Here are the top 15 projected players in the conference in order, and the other Marquette players in the top 20 percent of all players. As always, corrections are welcome to pudnerjohn@gmail.com or 404.606.3163.

Nat'l Rnk	Top 15 Big East Players	Value Add	School	Ht
15	Jalen Brunson 1	9.16	Villanova	`6-02
23	Mikal Bridges 25	8.78	Villanova	`6-07
36	Khyri Thomas 2	8.21	Creighton	`6-03
39	Trevon Bluiett 5	8.17	Xavier	`6-06
41	Shamorie Ponds 2	8.13	St. John's	`6-01
49	Angel Delgado	7.80	Seton Hall	`6-10
64	JP Macura 55	7.38	Xavier	`6-05
67	Marcus Foster 0	7.30	Creighton	`6-03
95	Khadeen Carrington 0	6.90	Seton Hall	`6-04
129	Kelan Martin 30	6.51	Butler	`6-07
134	Jalen Lindsey 21	6.49	Providence	`6-07
143	Emmitt Holt 15	6.35	Providence	`6-07
171	Markus Howard 0	6.10	Marquette	`5-11
197	Desi Rodriguez 20	5.85	Seton Hall	`6-06
203	Jessie Govan 15	5.82	Georgetown	`6-10
Nat'l Rnk	Other MU in top 20%	Value Add	School	Ht
207	Andrew Rowsey 30	5.80	Marquette	`5-10
256	Sam Hauser 10	5.43	Marquette	`6-06
705	Haanif Cheatham 25	3.32	Marquette	`6-05

Ken Pomeroy ranked the Big East 3rd of 32 Division 1 basketball conferences, which will all be previewed at www.pudnersports.com with notes on which schools are now "basketball" or "football" schools based on which program is stronger this season. Football revenue is much higher, but programs are much more expensive between equipment and the requirement of matching enough women's scholarships in other sports. Therefore some programs forgo FBS football programs to focus on low cost basketball programs as their biggest revenue sport.

Sports Illustrated, Fox Sports and ESPN have lauded Value Add Basketball for estimating the number of points each college basketball players is worth to his team above a replacement player - similar to baseball WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Massey Ratings is used for the football rankings above.

We break into your regularly scheduled football weekend to talk #MUBB schedule and recruits

It's fall so we're starting to shake off our summer vacation and more importantly, there is #MUBB news to report and comment on. First we lightly touch on the momentary freakout around Haanif's sling thanks to Instagram. Moving on from that silliness we get to the heart of the podcast, Marquette's newly released schedule. While we don't go game by game we do review the schedule overall and what it might mean for the team this season. We discuss what the non-conference schedule does for a young front court, how we owe apologizes to Mike Broeker after having seen Georgetown's non-con, and what the conference schedule looks like in terms of potential post season. We also send a lot of time talking about the intensifying recruitment of Quentin Grimes by #MUBB, mostly around what his recruitment means for Marquette's roster in 2018, coaching staff as recruiters and level setting expectations for actually landing Mr. Grimes. Enjoy the pod, we're only 4 weeks away from Marquette Madness. Download this episode (right click and save)

Mid-summer #mubb check-in

Hope everyone is having a great summer. We wanted to have a quick check in to see where Marquette basketball stands during the summer lull. First we spend some time analyzing the almost fully released non-conference schedule. We're not picking wins and losses (way too early for that even for us) but do want to reflect on what the schedule could set-up for MU and how it compares to previous seasons. The next fun item from this summer was the Centennial Hoops Celebration, and we talk about what we heard from that event. We then transition to recruiting news, including yet more talk about Joey Hauser. Finally we talk about the summer fun that isn't Battle of the Network Stars, Marquette alumni competing in The Tournament. Enjoy the pod and enjoy the rest of the summer, hoops will be upon us before you know it! Download this episode (right click and save)

No NBA-ready Players Yet, but 3 MU Players stayed after being NBA-ready

Sam Hauser and Markus Howard both project to be worth 5.00-5.99 runs to Marquette this year. The good news is that is in that nice spot for college fans where it is an elite level but not enough to start the "they will not consider leaving early for the NBA are they?" Not that there is an NBA talk about these two great rising sophmores, but having just finished crunching the numbers they are about two points short of where a player needs to get to have a better than 50/50 chance of making the NBA.

I crunched the numbers for 20,767 players in the www.valueaddbasketball.com database, and found the Value Add at which a player has better than a 50/50 chance to make the NBA is 7.60. Here is the breakdown of a player's chance of making the NBA once they hit a certain range:

Best Value Add	Players	Made NBA	% made it
0 to 0.99	10,640	10	0.1%
1 to 1.99	4142	20	0.5%
2 to 2.99	2010	31	1.5%
3 to 3.99	1353	48	3.5%
4 to 4.99	982	100	10.2%
5 to 5.99	664	129	19.4%
6 to 6.99	428	124	29.0%
7 to 7.99	268	124	46.3%
8 to 8.99	157	116	73.9%
9 or higher	123	107	87.0%
All Players	20,767	809	3.9%

When you dig deeper, freshmen can come in above 6.00 and be one-and-dones because NBA clubs know they have more upside at their young age.

Certainly several Marquette players made the NBA without ever hitting the 7.60 mark, and there are many other factors I cover in this study. However, the four players who have exceeded that mark at Marquette all made it and three of the four actually could have made the NBA a year earlier.

Jae Crowder's junior season he was still about a point short of NBA-level with a 6.54 Value Add. He easily passed the mark his final season at 12.43.

However, Dwyane Wade (11.59), Travis Diener (10.32) and Jimmy Butler (8.96) were all well beyond the Value Add that indicates a player is ready for the NBA in the year BEFORE they actually left.

The fact that I had Butler ranked well ahead of the great Lazar Hayward in Butler's JUNIOR year was was first compelled the Chicago Bulls to call and meet about Value Add, but how wonderful he was already adding his senior season in which he went  into UConn and beat Kemba Walker!

Fresh Run Gives MU 3 of Top 18 Big East Players; Ranks All Since 2001-02 Season

We did a pretty massive update of www.valueaddbasketball.com that entailed rating all players going back to 2001-02, but also fine tuning the projection adjustments for how much players should improve between seasons, and if they get on NBA prospect lists. If you are into the actual calculations, I have other links below this list, but for those of you who just want a quick look at where our players rank against the best of the Big East - here are the projected conference leaders.

Please don't hesitate to make any corrections. Tracking thousands of players through transfers, NBA declarations and returns to college etc., this was a massive run. We also ran over 61,000 players seasons, so correct away by calling me at 404.606.3163 or emailing pudnerjohn@gmail.com with any corrections. Here is the best of the Big East based on projections:

Natl	Big East Player	Team	Value Add
11	Jalen Brunson 1	Villanova	9.16
15	Mikal Bridges 25	Villanova	8.78
25	Khyri Thomas 2	Creighton	8.21
27	Trevon Bluiett 5	Xavier	8.17
28	Shamorie Ponds 2	St. John's	8.13
44	JP Macura 55	Xavier	7.38
67	Khadeen Carrington 0	Seton Hall	6.9
78	Angel Delgado	Seton Hall	6.77
101	Jalen Lindsey 21	Providence	6.49
108	Emmitt Holt 15	Providence	6.35
109	Kelan Martin 30	Butler	6.34
148	Desi Rodriguez 20	Seton Hall	5.85
156	Andrew Rowsey 30	Marquette	5.8
161	Kamar Baldwin 3	Butler	5.75
162	Rodney Bullock 5	Providence	5.75
189	Donte DiVincenzo 10	Villanova	5.47
194	Sam Hauser 10	Marquette	5.43
200	Markus Howard 0	Marquette	5.36
228	Marcus LoVett 15	St. John's	5.17
234	Kyron Cartwright 24	Providence	5.13

After our massive update, the website now includes the projections for 3,291 players for the 2017-18 season (click here and type 2018 for year, or type 2019 to look at the 313 players who will next play in 2018-19). It also includes a total of 61,019 past player seasons (click here for all of those seasons going back to 2001-02, then search notes for "nba" to limit to only the 2,195 played by players who went onto the NBA).

If you are curious about how we project player values or likelihood of NBA stardom, you can check any of the following posts:

Value Add Group 1: Top 2017-18 Freshmen and How Many Points Each is Worth
Value Add Group 2: Top Returning Sophomores, Juniors and Seniors
Value Add Group 3: Top-ranked Transfers
Value Add Group 4: Top JUCO Transfers: Projected Value for 2018, and Best Since 2011
Value Add Group 5: NBA Prospects for Thursday's Draft

Now I would challenge everyone to look at the blind test of Pomeroy stats of two All-American players and tell me which is better:

	ORtg	eFG%	OR%	DR%	ARate	TORate	Blk%	Stl%	FT	2-Pt	3-Pt	Team Defense
	115.2	51.5	7.1	15.4	31.1	17.6	4.2	4	78%	52%	32%	101st
	122.1	56.8	7	20.7	13.5	9.7	3.1	4.3	74%	60%	35%	14th

I believe most would agree that the second player was better statistically. Pomeroy says the 2nd player gets his team about seven points more per 100 possessions, so statistically he is a better offensive player. Defense is tougher in a blind test, but the bottom player was part of a much better defense (the 14th best in the country compared to a very mediocre 101st best), and the second player is better at steals and defensive rebounds, while the first is better at blocked shots. 

Let me add that the second player faced much tougher competition up until the NCAA tournament.

I go through all this to avoid the pain of the next graph. Yes, the bottom line is Jae Crowder's final season and statistically he was slightly better than Dwyane Wade, the top line. I wanted to show these stats before listing Marquette's all-time Value Add leaders below because Crowder has a slight edge after all the fine tuning as we ran through the 60,000+ seasons.

It doesn't mean I would rank him higher subjectively. When I wrote The Ultimate Hoops Guide: Marquette Basketball, I ranked Wade first and I still would based on his tournament run to the Final Four, what he has done in the NBA etc. But from a pure statistical perspective over the entire season Crowder was slightly more valuable. If I updated the book today, I would nudge Crowder ahead of the great Bo Ellis as the No. 2 player.

Wade beating two of the top three teams in the country to take Marquette to the Final Four gets him the No. 1 all-time nod subjectively, but statistically over the course of the season Crowder was slightly better at the college level and that is reflected in the all-time Value Add ratings in which they both made Marquette about 12 points better per game than if they were replaced by a mediocre replacement player. 

With all that defense in place, the 2018 projections give three current Marquette players a spot among the Top 30 players to play at Marquette since Wade's two seasons. Click here for all 61,019 player seasons, and which 2,195 made the NBA.

Rnk	Player	VA Pts/Game	Year	Conf	Ht	Class
1	Jae Crowder	12.43	2012	BE	6'6	4 Sr
2	Dwyane Wade	11.59	2003	CUSA	6'4	2 So
3	Travis Diener	10.32	2004	BE	6'1	3 Jr
4	Travis Diener	9.74	2005	BE	6'1	4 Sr
5	Jimmy Butler	8.96	2010	BE	6'6	3 Jr
6	Dwyane Wade	8.53	2002	CUSA	6'4	1 Fr
7	Steve Novak	8.27	2006	BE	6'10	4 Sr
8	Lazar Hayward	7.46	2010	BE	6'6	4 Sr
9	Jimmy Butler	7.15	2011	BE	6'7	4 Sr
10	Wesley Matthews	6.85	2009	BE	6'5	4 Sr
11	Davante Gardner	6.7	2013	BE	6'8	3 Jr
12	Jae Crowder	6.54	2011	BE	6'6	3 Jr
13	Travis Diener	6.4	2003	CUSA	6'1	2 So
14	Robert Jackson	6.32	2003	CUSA	6'10	4 Sr
15	Dominic James	6.31	2006	BE	5'11	1 Fr
16	Cordell Henry	6.27	2002	CUSA	5'10	4 Sr
17	Jerel McNeal	6.26	2009	BE	6'3	4 Sr
18	Jerel McNeal	6.21	2008	BE	6'3	3 Jr
19	Dominic James	6.11	2008	BE	5'11	3 Jr
20	Lazar Hayward	6.11	2009	BE	6'6	3 Jr
21	Darius Johnson-Odom	5.88	2012	BE	6'2	4 Sr
22	Maurice Acker	5.84	2010	BE	5'8	4 Sr
23	Andrew Rowsey 30	5.8	2018	BE	5'10	4 Sr
24	Travis Diener	5.7	2002	CUSA	6'1	1 Fr
25	Lazar Hayward	5.62	2008	BE	6'6	2 So
26	Matt Carlino 13	5.6	2015	BE	6'2	4 Sr
27	Luke Fischer 40	5.5	2017	BE	6'11	4 Sr
28	Davante Gardner	5.46	2014	BE	6'8	4 Sr
29	Sam Hauser 10	5.43	2018	BE	6'6	2 So
30	Markus Howard 0	5.36	2018	BE	5'11	2 So
31	Steve Novak	5.08	2005	BE	6'10	3 Jr
32	Dominic James	4.85	2007	BE	5'11	2 So
33	Andrew Rowsey 30	4.8	2017	BE	5'10	3 Jr
34	Henry Ellenson 13	4.8	2016	BE	6'11	1 Fr
35	Jamil Wilson	4.59	2013	BE	6'7	3 Jr
36	Wesley Matthews	4.44	2007	BE	6'5	2 So
37	Sam Hauser 10	4.43	2017	BE	6'6	1 Fr
38	Scott Merritt	4.42	2003	CUSA	6'10	3 Jr
39	Wesley Matthews	4.41	2008	BE	6'5	3 Jr
40	Vander Blue	4.4	2013	BE	6'4	3 Jr
41	Markus Howard 0	4.36	2017	BE	5'11	1 Fr
42	Luke Fischer 40	4.36	2016	BE	6'11	3 Jr
43	Dominic James	4.12	2009	BE	5'11	4 Sr
44	JaJuan Johnson 23	4.1	2017	BE	6'5	4 Sr
45	Joe Chapman	4.1	2006	BE	6'7	1 Fr
46	Jerel McNeal	3.97	2007	BE	6'3	2 So
47	Davante Gardner	3.96	2012	BE	6'8	2 So
48	David Cubillan	3.9	2007	BE	6'1	1 Fr
49	Darius Johnson-Odom	3.88	2011	BE	6'2	3 Jr
50	Steve Novak	3.87	2004	BE	6'10	2 So