Not even sure where to start with this post, it was not good before now with a loss to DePaul it is likely over. So we are going to talk about what went wrong in Chicago and what was Wojo thinking. After we go through all the woulda, coulda, shouldas, we turn to the impact this loss has on a potential NCAA bid. We then talk about the next week and whether or not Marquette can win both games to even give them a shot at a tournament bid. We then talk about our favorite memories from the BC since this will be the last regular season game before moving to the new arena. Lastly we spend some time talking about the reports this week regarding bag dropping and cheating by various programs from the vantage point of Marquette. It was not great, but still....Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
Sunday, February 25, 2018
Thursday, February 22, 2018
SOR/Matrix Average: Marquette Only Winner Among 10 "Middle" Teams Wednesday
In the past I've argued a "Middle 25" ranking for college basketball would be much more interesting than the Top 25, since what we really want to identify pre-tournament is the 25 teams fighting for the last 10 spots in the tournament.
The "Middle 25" below were those teams based on me averaging the Strength of Record ESPN argues is the best analytic indicator (a measure of how likely the 25th best team in the country would have been to match the team's record) and the cumulative wisdom of the bracket matrix. I grade last night's performance with a B, C or D letter grade (there were no earth-shattering A or F grades last night) to indicated if a team could have moved up or down based on last night's performance.
| SOR/ Matrix | up to 10 of 25 get bids | CONF | Record | Wed Gm | Grade for Wed or next game (kenpom ranks) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arizona State | Pac-12 | 19-7 | Thur at #74 Oregon | |
| 2 | Saint Mary's | WCC | 25-4 | Thur hosts #295 Pepperdine | |
| 3 | Florida | SEC | 17-10 | Unchanged | C - closer than expected loss at #15 Tennessee |
| 4 | Baylor | Big 12 | 17-11 | Sat at #23 TCU; Lunardi 7th in middle | |
| 5 | St. Bona. | A 10 | 20-6 | Unchanged | C - closer than expected 73-67 home win over #191 Duquesne |
| 6 | Alabama | SEC | 17-10 | Down | D - destroyed by 19 vs #12 Auburn |
| 7 | Missouri | SEC | 18-10 | Sat #25 Kentucky | |
| 8 | Providence | Big East | 17-10 | Down | D - losing 56-47 with 13 min left vs. #38 Seton Hall before slick floor suspended |
| 9 | Louisville | ACC | 18-9 | Down | D - destroyed by Duke 82-56 |
| 10 | Miss St. Current Cutoff | SEC | 20-8 | Sat Hosts #80 South Carolina | |
| 11 | Syracuse | ACC | 18-9 | Down | D - lost at home vs. #7 UNC |
| 12 | Nebraska | Big Ten | 21-9 | Hosts #27 Penn State | |
| 13 | UCLA | Pac-12 | 19-8 | Thur at #60 Utah; lunardi 11th in middle | |
| 14 | Maryland | Big Ten | 19-11 | Sat hosts #20 Michigan | |
| 15 | Marquette | Big East | 15-11 | Up | B - bigger than expected win over #71 St. John's |
| 16 | Boise State | MW | 21-6 | Up | B - crushed #222 Colorado St 87-54 on road |
| 17 | Penn State | Big Ten | 19-10 | Down | D - upset loss vs. #24 Minnesota at home |
| 18 | LSU | SEC | 16-11 | Sat #71 Georgia | |
| 19 | USC | Pac-12 | 19-9 | Up | bigger than expected win at #112 Colorado |
| 20 | Washington | Pac-12 | 18-9 | Thur at #93 Stanford | |
| 21 | Utah | Pac-12 | 17-9 | Thur hosts #53 UCLA | |
| 22 | Georgia | SEC | 15-11 | Down | D - bigger than expected loss at South Carolina 66-57 |
| 23 | Notre Dame | ACC | 16-12 | Sat at #89 Wake Forest | |
| 24 | Temple | American | 15-12 | host #97 UCF | |
| 25 | Western Kentucky | CUSA | 20-7 | Hosts #316 Charlotte |
A warning - there are 10 spots available for this team without any tournament spoilers, most notably if Middle Tennessee or Nevada were to but upset in the Conference USA or Mountain West Tournament than those two conferences would likely get two spots, but there really are not too many spoilers most years. Based on this measure, Marquette is the "5th team out" as the 15th best team among the Middle 25 vying for 10 spots.
The good news is that was going into the St. John's game, and that win was coupled with all four teams in action in the 6th to 15 spots (the "Middle 10" with Marquette) having bad nights - though Providence could still salvage their night with a comeback in the game they need to finish at Noon Thursday. So if ESPN's resume and/or the Bracket Matrix is close, Marquette's chances likely improved somewhat substantially last night in beating a St. John's team that was undefeated in February including the upsets of Villanova and Duke.
Alabama, Louisville, Syracuse and Providence having setbacks and Marquette's win also improving its standing against the three idle teams just in front of them - Nebraska, UCLA and Maryland - give plenty of potential for movement. We will see how many nudge Marquette into their brackets or at least the next teams' out.
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Monday, February 19, 2018
Wait, playing a single small guard and a 2-3 zone worked? Why didn't we think of that???
We are absolutely going to take that win and run with it, but it left us with a lot of questions, some of them angry. First, at the time of recording we knew nothing of the prognosis for Markus Howard so instead of going all local news and having a Sunday night news teaser that made it sound like we know what was going on with him but it turned out we had no idea whatsoever......we aren't going to do that[rant off/]. So we talk about the injury and what we know as well as the possible impact it could have on the rest of the season. We also talk about why did it take Howard's pelvis exploding for Wojo to actually go to a line-up/defense that made sense for this team? Finally, we talk about the next week of basketball and whether #mubb can win two more. It's gonna be an interesting week to be sure, so listen up and get ready for a roller coaster. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Phil Bush
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Wednesday, February 14, 2018
Have you ever seen the rain comin' down on a sunny day? #mubb edition
We went with a little CCR for the pod title because we are trying to unpack what we just experienced with the saddest 1-1 week that included a road win over a top 40 opponent. What do we make of the win against Seton Hall and then watch Wojo get out coached by Chris Mullen? I'm not saying we're having an existential crisis but we certainly aren't not having an existential crisis. We break down the two games and talk about what we learned and how it projects for the last 5 games of the regular season. We talk about what, if anything, Wojo actually does different over the next 5 games and how much we can actually look at positively from the season to date. We make some predictions on the Creighton game and how that may foretell the rest of the season. We close out by talking about an old friend, Duane Wilson, and the unfortunate end to his season. Maybe CCR was singing about the #mubb defense: 'Til forever, on it goes. Through the circle, fast and slow. I know! It can't stop, I wonder. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Phil Bush
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Monday, February 05, 2018
It was a bad week, was it the worst one in the Wojo era?
Not much of a synopsis this week. We basically have a long therapy session about the state of the program under Wojo after a very bad week of basketball against Butler and Providence. It's a tough pod but hopefully one that helps us get our heads right. Enjoy Download this episode (right click and save)
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Monday, January 29, 2018
It was a rough, but not unexpected week for #mubb
Well, it wasn't the week we were hoping for (especially against Xavier) but it also did nothing to damage #mubb tournament chances. We start with the most recent game against Villanova (most because neither one of really wanted to talk about the Xavier boondoggle). We talk about what the performance against Villanova and whether the loss is the fault of the officiating (spoiler alert, they didn't help but they weren't to blame). We also discuss why we can't get the Tres Amigios to play well at the same time. To cleanse the palate a little we highlight the continuing improvement from Harry Froling and Sacar Amin, who both had an excellent game. To wrap up the podcast we spend some time analyzing the up coming week with critical home games against Butler and Providence. We give predictions, one us thinks the team goes 2-0 and it's not who you think. As always, enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Tuesday, January 23, 2018
Break is over, time to get back to the grind for #mubb
It was a seemingly very long 9 day break from Marquette basketball, but they're back this week and so is the podcast. For having 9 days off we sure have a lot to talk about. First, we have the pleasant surprise of Joey Hauser (you may know his brother) 2018 commit actually enrolling in school this semester and taking a voluntary red shirt so he'll have 4 years of eligibility starting in the fall. We spend talking about that and whether it's a good or great thing. We then spend as little time as possible reviewing the actual DePaul game which may have been the worst game #mubb played all season. Then we talk about the tough upcoming week with a road trip to Xavier and a big home clash with national #1 Villanova. We discuss what we expect to be different in these repeat match-ups and look ahead to the rest of the schedule to determine just how important this week is. We close out by giving our predictions and highlighting the need for one of Marquette's own Tori McCoy. As detailed by Anonymous Eagle() Tori needs a kidney transplant and Marquette has started a GoFundMe(GoFundMe) to support her. If you can please support Tori in her time of need. On that note, let's go out and one at least one of these games and start the second half of the conference season off on a great note. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Sunday, January 14, 2018
We got what we needed out of the past week, let's beat DePaul and rest up
#mubb went 1-1 this week and looked great against Seton Hall while reverting to defensive form against Butler so we're going to declare that a successful but not spectacular week. We're going to start with the good and discuss they shockingly great defensive effort against the top team in the Big East(at the time) Seton Hall. We try to understand what changed and how it can be carried into future games. What is clear is that #mubb would not carry it into the next game against Butler where the interior defense was more useless than the Maginot line (yes that's a WWII joke, whatever). We discuss the Butler game and what went wrong and what positives we can take away from it. A positive we can take away from that game and the season really, has been the play of Sam Hauser. Seemingly lost in the flashy play of the lead guards for Marquette, Sam has managed to put together a strong offensive game while also being our best interior defender if not best defender period. So we talk about how efficient his offense has been. We also have a shotout for Matt Heldt, most efficient man in the NCAA. We wrap up the podcast with a discussion of the DePaul(just don't lose to them) and some odds and ends. As always, enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Phil Bush
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Monday, January 08, 2018
So we should probably spend some time talking about Markus Howard
So the week turned out exactly how we thought it would, #mubb went 1 and 1 with a win over Providence and a tough loss to Villanova, ho hum not much to talk about. Just kidding, of course we are going to carry on for 25 minutes about Markus Howard's historic 52 point performance and his equally impressive 37 points and 8 assists against Villanova. In fact, we spend time talking about where the performance against Providence ranks in modern MU single player performance pantheon. Once even we've had enough of talking about Markus, we do breakdown the Providence and Villanova games to talk about what we liked and didn't like from the games. Finally, we turn ahead to this week, which is another must go 1 and 1 week, previewing the Seton Hall and Butler games. I'd take another 89 points from Markus this week, but let's hope we don't have to for at least one win. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Tuesday, January 02, 2018
Happy New Year and mostly happy start to Big East play
Happy New Year! Hope everyone has recovered from the holidays and is ready to talk #mubb basketball. First we discuss the old year, and the mixed results of the first two games of conference play. We break down the Xavier and Georgetown games including is the defense getting better and how worried should we be about Markus Howard's slump. We then transition to the new year and the brutal next 7 games on Marquette's schedule and what our expectations should be. We then get into a conversation about the next two games, @Providence and @Villanova and our expectations for those games. We close out the pod with a brief remembrance of broadcast legend, Dick Enberg, who had multiple connections to Marquette. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Monday, January 01, 2018
If Bids Went to Players Instead of Teams: Rowsey v. Bridges and Hauser v. UCLA's Welsh
As I ran the Value Add Basketball Numbers to finish out the 2017 calendar year, one thing became apparent - if the season ended today Oklahoma's Trae Young would be the best college player OF THE CENTURY, which clearly gives Oklahoma the best athletic duo of the century since Baker Mayfield takes the field against Georgia today as one of the top five football players of the century.
Last season I insisted Sindarius Thornwell of South Carolina was the best player in the country and then Marquette drew him in the opening round - but Young is much better than him and after going into #10 TCU and upsetting them 90-89 with a 39 point, 14 assist game, these guy edges out even Anthony Davis and Kevin Durant for the most dominant college player of the century based on the history Value Add rankings.
This made me think about just how prohibitive a favorite Young would be if the NCAA bids were for a one-on-one tournament and you could somehow factor in his assists, which obviously necessitate playing on a team.
I went ahead and sent out bids to both the NIT and NCAA based on the new Value Add numbers, but also giving the best player in each conference an automatic bid, and ended up with great match-ups for Marquette's two top 100 players (with the streaky Markus Howard out of the top 100 for the moment.
Of course, Michigan State fans will cry foul that Value Add ratings would currently place Andrew Rowsey as the slighly favored No. 4 seed in the NIT Western bracket against their National Player of the Year hopeful. However, Rowsey has been worth an extra 7.33 points per game to Marquette this year to an almost identical 7.27 for Miles Bridges. Great players tend to rank lower earlier in a season of blowouts since the minutes are spread.
A Georgetown fan texted me after Saturday's game to ask, "Who is Andrew Rowsey and give me one good reason I should not hate him." While his defense is not great (note he gets a "D" for defensive rebounding, C for a few blocked shots, and B for steals) he and the rest of the team have improved enough that he is currently the 67th most valuable player in the country, and therefore would be in an at-large "player" March Madness except that we gave the smaller conferences one team each. Bridges will shoot up now facing tougher Big Ten opponents, but when www.kenpom.com says Bridges has only been the best player in 1 of 15 games so far, and Value Add adjusts for strength of opponents (the Spartans last six opponents have been ranked 310, 106, 295, 238, 302, 330).
| Seed | NIT Midwest Seeds | Team | Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game | Def Grades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaylen Barford #0 | Arkansas | 7.53 | Reb Blk Stl=C C B |
| 2 | Trevon Bluiett #5 | Xavier | 7.48 | Reb Blk Stl=B C D |
| 3 | Udoka Azubuike #35 | Kansas | 7.44 | Reb Blk Stl=A A D |
| 4 | Andrew Rowsey #30 | Marquette | 7.33 | Reb Blk Stl=D C B |
| 5 | Miles Bridges #22 | Michigan St. | 7.27 | Reb Blk Stl=A A D |
| 6 | Jessie Govan #15 | Georgetown | 7.13 | Reb Blk Stl=A A C |
| 7 | Nick Ward #44 | Michigan St. | 7.04 | Reb Blk Stl=A A F |
| 8 | Zhaire Smith #2 | Texas Tech | 7.01 | Reb Blk Stl=C A A |
OK, so I cheated a little and created one NIT play-in match-up since Hauser technically missed the last NIT spot as the 87 best player in basketball. This would put him up against Shannon Evans of the amazing Arizona State team of Bobby Hurley, for the right to play the top seed in the NIT West in big man Thomas Welsh of UCLA. As good as Hauser's all-around offense is every day, completely in the flow of the game, I also wanted to point out that he is one of the few that has a strong ranking in all three defensive categories, getting a "B" (top 40%) in Defensive Rebounding, Blocked Shots and Steals.
| Seed | NIT West Seeds | Team | Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game | Def Grades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thomas Welsh #40 | UCLA | 7.54 | Reb Blk Stl=A A C |
| 2 | Elijah Bryant #3 | Brigham Young | 7.49 | Reb Blk Stl=A B A |
| 3 | Shake Milton #1 | Southern Methodist | 7.47 | Reb Blk Stl=C B A |
| 4 | Caleb Martin #10 | Nevada | 7.37 | Reb Blk Stl=B C B |
| 5 | Justin Bibbins #1 | Utah | 7.23 | Reb Blk Stl=D D B |
| 6 | Rob Gray #32 | Houston | 7.18 | Reb Blk Stl=D D C |
| 7 | Chimezie Metu #4 | Southern California | 7.02 | Reb Blk Stl=A A D |
| 8-playin | Shannon Evans #11 | Arizona St. | 6.97 | Reb Blk Stl=D D B |
| 8-playin | Sam Hauser #10 | Marquette | 6.95 | Reb Blk Stl=B B B |
Fair to note that Ethan Happ had an All-American ranking until Matt Heldt slowed him down, and he has slipped a bit and would place as an NIT player at this stage. Max Strus of DePaul is looking strong after the incredible scare they put into Xavier.
| Seed | NIT East Seeds | Team | Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game | Def Grades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donte Grantham #32 | Clemson | 7.5 | Reb Blk Stl=B B D |
| 2 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #22 | Kentucky | 7.48 | Reb Blk Stl=D C A |
| 3 | Ethan Happ #22 | Wisconsin | 7.42 | Reb Blk Stl=A B B |
| 4 | Tyus Battle #25 | Syracuse | 7.34 | Reb Blk Stl=F C A |
| 5 | Max Strus #31 | DePaul | 7.24 | Reb Blk Stl=D B A |
| 6 | Jared Terrell #32 | Rhode Island | 7.13 | Reb Blk Stl=D F A |
| 7 | Tony Carr #10 | Penn St. | 7.07 | Reb Blk Stl=C D B |
| 8 | Kevin Huerter #4 | Maryland | 7 | Reb Blk Stl=C B D |
Finally these would be our NIT bids to the south.
| Seed | NIT South Seeds | Team | Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game | Def Grades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jeremiah Martin #3 | Memphis | 7.56 | Reb Blk Stl=C B A |
| 2 | Jordan McLaughlin #11 | Southern California | 7.49 | Reb Blk Stl=D C A |
| 3 | Matt Rafferty #32 | Furman | 7.41 | Reb Blk Stl=A B A |
| 4 | Melvin Frazier #35 | Tulane | 7.29 | Reb Blk Stl=B B A |
| 5 | Wendell Carter #34 | Duke | 7.26 | Reb Blk Stl=A A D |
| 6 | Terance Mann #14 | Florida St. | 7.11 | Reb Blk Stl=C C B |
| 7 | Tyler Rawson #21 | Utah | 7.01 | Reb Blk Stl=A A C |
| 8 | Marcquise Reed #2 | Clemson | 7 | Reb Blk Stl=B F A |
Shifting to the top 68 players in the hypothetical NCAA one-on-one tournament, Villanova continues to have two of the top eight players in the country, and with no undefeated teams remaining they still look like the best in the country - not just the Big East. St. John's and Shamorie Ponds have slipped a little after an extremely hot start.
| Seed | NCAA East Seeds | Team | Value Add v5.0 Pts/Game | Def Grades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jalen Brunson #1 | Villanova | 10.44 | Reb Blk Stl=D F B |
| 2 | Mikal Bridges #25 | Villanova | 9.83 | Reb Blk Stl=B A A |
| 3 | Nick King #5 | Middle Tennessee | 9.61 | Reb Blk Stl=A D D |
| 4 | Tookie Brown #4 | Georgia Southern | 9.29 | Reb Blk Stl=C B A |
| 5 | Ajdin Penava #11 | Marshall | 8.9 | Reb Blk Stl=A A A |
| 6 | Landry Shamet #11 | Wichita St. | 8.49 | Reb Blk Stl=D C C |
| 7 | Fletcher Magee #3 | Wofford | 8.37 | Reb Blk Stl=F D C |
| 8 | Zach Thomas #23 | Bucknell | 8.18 | Reb Blk Stl=A B C |
| 9 | Shamorie Ponds #2 | St. John's | 8.06 | Reb Blk Stl=B D A |
| 10 | Kevin Hervey #25 | Texas Arlington | 7.9 | Reb Blk Stl=A B A |
| 11 | CJ Massinburg #5 | Buffalo | 7.85 | Reb Blk Stl=B B C |
| 12 | Josh Reaves #23 | Penn St. | 7.74 | Reb Blk Stl=D B A |
| 13 | Garrison Mathews #24 | Lipscomb | 7.51 | Reb Blk Stl=C C B |
| 14 | Devin Cannady #3 | Princeton | 6.88 | Reb Blk Stl=B D D |
| 15 | Joe Cremo #24 | Albany | 6.45 | Reb Blk Stl=C D C |
| 16 | Isaiah Reese #13 | Canisius | 6.11 | Reb Blk Stl=A F A |
No freshman ever had a Value Add rating more than two points better than anyone else in the country. It is still a long season, but if Trae Young keeps this pace up he is the best college player of the century.
| Seed | NCAA MWSeeds | Team | Value Add | Def Grades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trae Young #11 | Oklahoma | 13.17 | Reb Blk Stl=D C A |
| 2 | Bonzie Colson #35 | Notre Dame | 10.14 | Reb Blk Stl=A A A |
| 3 | Gary Clark #11 | Cincinnati | 9.61 | Reb Blk Stl=A A A |
| 4 | Devonte' Graham #4 | Kansas | 9.31 | Reb Blk Stl=D D A |
| 5 | Justinian Jessup #3 | Boise St. | 8.7 | Reb Blk Stl=B B B |
| 6 | Keita Bates-Diop #33 | Ohio St. | 8.53 | Reb Blk Stl=A A B |
| 7 | Jordan Murphy #3 | Minnesota | 8.43 | Reb Blk Stl=A A C |
| 8 | Anthony Cowan #1 | Maryland | 8.31 | Reb Blk Stl=C D B |
| 9 | Josh Cunningham #0 | Dayton | 8 | Reb Blk Stl=A B C |
| 10 | Dakota Mathias #31 | Purdue | 7.9 | Reb Blk Stl=C C B |
| 11 | Cassius Winston #5 | Michigan St. | 7.85 | Reb Blk Stl=C F B |
| 12 | James Thompson #2 | Eastern Michigan | 7.75 | Reb Blk Stl=A A C |
| 13 | Blake Francis #3 | Wagner | 7.33 | Reb Blk Stl=F D B |
| 14 | Scottie James #31 | Liberty | 6.71 | Reb Blk Stl=A B B |
| 15 | Reed Timmer #12 | Drake | 6.45 | Reb Blk Stl=D D D |
| 16-playin | Femi Olujobi #25 | North Carolina A&T | 5.94 | Reb Blk Stl=A B D |
| 16-playin | Gary Blackston #3 | Prairie View A&M | 4.53 | Reb Blk Stl=B C A |
West Virginia's Jevon Carter is second best partly due to being an incredible defender.
| Seed | NCAA South Seeds | Team | Value Add v5.0 | Def Grades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jevon Carter #2 | West Virginia | 11.03 | Reb Blk Stl=B B A |
| 2 | Dean Wade #32 | Kansas St. | 9.88 | Reb Blk Stl=A B A |
| 3 | Marvin Bagley #35 | Duke | 9.69 | Reb Blk Stl=A B D |
| 4 | Luke Maye #32 | North Carolina | 9.37 | Reb Blk Stl=A A D |
| 5 | Isaiah Wilkins #21 | Virginia | 8.96 | Reb Blk Stl=A A A |
| 6 | Ria'n Holland #10 | Mercer | 8.57 | Reb Blk Stl=D F A |
| 7 | Dewan Huell #20 | Miami FL | 8.47 | Reb Blk Stl=A A C |
| 8 | Collin Sexton #2 | Alabama | 8.12 | Reb Blk Stl=F F B |
| 9 | Kenrich Williams #34 | Texas Christian | 7.98 | Reb Blk Stl=A C A |
| 10 | Chris Silva #30 | South Carolina | 7.89 | Reb Blk Stl=A A C |
| 11 | Grayson Allen #3 | Duke | 7.8 | Reb Blk Stl=F D B |
| 12 | Chris Chiozza #11 | Florida | 7.62 | Reb Blk Stl=B F A |
| 13 | Dylan Windler #3 | Belmont | 7.26 | Reb Blk Stl=A A D |
| 14 | Zach Lofton #23 | New Mexico St. | 6.59 | Reb Blk Stl=B D C |
| 15 | Drew McDonald #34 | Northern Kentucky | 6.33 | Reb Blk Stl=A C D |
| 16 | Devontae Cacok #15 | North Carolina Wilmington | 5.96 | Reb Blk Stl=A B D |
I am not sure if it is really allowed to have three of the four play-in games feed one bracket, but just having fun. DJ Hogg teams up with our old friend Duane Wilson, so the best of luck to them on an incredible start. We saw Georgia's Yante Maten, who couldn't quite win at Kentucky to help our RPI, and we will see Seton Hall and Desi Rodriguez of course.
| Seed | NCAA West Seeds | Team | Value Add | Def Grades |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deandre Ayton #13 | Arizona | 10.96 | Reb Blk Stl=A A D |
| 2 | Jock Landale #34 | St. Mary's | 10.29 | Reb Blk Stl=A B F |
| 3 | Yante Maten #1 | Georgia | 9.58 | Reb Blk Stl=B A D |
| 4 | Tra Holder #0 | Arizona St. | 9.18 | Reb Blk Stl=C F A |
| 5 | Allonzo Trier #35 | Arizona | 8.61 | Reb Blk Stl=F B D |
| 6 | Keenan Evans #12 | Texas Tech | 8.54 | Reb Blk Stl=D B A |
| 7 | Lagerald Vick #2 | Kansas | 8.47 | Reb Blk Stl=B C B |
| 8 | Juwan Morgan #13 | Indiana | 8.14 | Reb Blk Stl=B A B |
| 9 | DJ Hogg #1 | Texas A&M | 8 | Reb Blk Stl=B B B |
| 10 | Mohamed Bamba #4 | Texas | 7.94 | Reb Blk Stl=A A C |
| 11 | Desi Rodriguez #20 | Seton Hall | 7.79 | Reb Blk Stl=B B B |
| 12-playin | Jeff Roberson #11 | Vanderbilt | 7.6 | Reb Blk Stl=A C C |
| 12-playin | Justin Tillman #4 | Virginia Commonwealth | 7.57 | Reb Blk Stl=A B D |
| 13-playin | Hayden Dalton #20 | Wyoming | 7.59 | Reb Blk Stl=A B C |
| 13-playin | Donta Hall #0 | Alabama | 7.58 | Reb Blk Stl=A A D |
| 14 | Chima Moneke #11 | UC Davis | 6.8 | Reb Blk Stl=A B B |
| 15 | Mike Daum #24 | South Dakota St. | 6.54 | Reb Blk Stl=A B C |
| 16-playin | Ahmaad Rorie #14 | Montana | 5.92 | Reb Blk Stl=C D B |
| 16-playin | Kevon Harris #1 | Stephen F. Austin | 5.44 | Reb Blk Stl=B D C |
And that's how it would play out if we were selecting the bids of the best player. Obviously you can sort the best of the Big East or anything else among the 4000-plus players at www.valueaddbasketball.com.
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Saturday, December 23, 2017
MU & Butler Project as 1st 2 Teams Out After Value Add Adjustment for Froling and All Other Injuries, Transfers worth 0.5 or more pts.
The following table seeds the NCAA March Madness Field based on each team's current rating at www.kenpom.com adjusted by the Value Add rating of each player who is returning or lost for the season.
The first number is the current KenPom Rating. If a player who helps or hurts a team by at least 0.50 points is listed in this blog, then that total is reflected in the second "change" number, and after those two numbers are added together they are multiplied by .70 to estimate how many points each team is better or worse than average. Villanova calculates as 21.46 points better than the average team, which would leave them with a 1-seed.
Marquette and Butler actually calculate as the first two teams out of the tournament with Froling projecting to help the team by 1.21 points to make MU 9.91 points better than the average team in the country.
| Team | KenPom | Change | Pts above ave | Conf | Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villanova | 31.02 | 21.46 | BE | 1 | |
| Michigan St. | 28.63 | 19.79 | B10 | 1 | |
| North Carolina | 22.22 | 5.64 | 19.25 | ACC | 1 |
| Virginia | 27.15 | 18.76 | ACC | 1 | |
| Duke | 26.39 | 18.22 | ACC | 2 | |
| Arizona | 21.43 | 4.61 | 17.98 | P12 | 2 |
| Purdue | 25.71 | 17.75 | B10 | 2 | |
| Kansas | 24.84 | 17.14 | B12 | 2 | |
| Texas A&M | 24.25 | 16.73 | SEC | 3 | |
| West Virginia | 22.56 | 15.54 | B12 | 3 | |
| Clemson | 19.23 | 3.15 | 15.42 | ACC | 3 |
| Wichita St. | 22.38 | 15.42 | Amer | 3 | |
| Cincinnati | 22.3 | 15.36 | Amer | 4 | |
| Texas Tech | 22.29 | 15.35 | B12 | 4 | |
| Gonzaga | 21.71 | 14.95 | WCC | 4 | |
| Miami FL | 21.52 | 14.81 | ACC | 4 | |
| Seton Hall | 20.02 | 1.48 | 14.80 | BE | 5 |
| Oklahoma | 21.19 | 14.58 | B12 | 5 | |
| Kentucky | 21.18 | 14.58 | SEC | 5 | |
| Xavier | 21.08 | 14.51 | BE | 5 | |
| Florida St. | 18.2 | 2.18 | 14.02 | ACC | 6 |
| Saint Mary's | 17.4 | 2.17 | 13.45 | WCC | 6 |
| Baylor | 18.33 | 1.10 | 13.35 | B12 | 6 |
| Arizona St. | 19.25 | 13.23 | P12 | 6 | |
| SMU | 19.14 | 13.15 | Amer | 7 | |
| TCU | 19.14 | 13.15 | B12 | 7 | |
| Notre Dame | 19.08 | 13.11 | ACC | 7 | |
| Arkansas | 19.06 | 13.09 | SEC | 7 | |
| Louisville | 16.82 | 1.98 | 12.91 | ACC | 8 |
| Florida | 16.91 | 1.64 | 12.74 | SEC | 8 |
| Texas | 17.3 | 1.12 | 12.64 | B12 | 8 |
| Tennessee | 18 | 12.35 | SEC | 8 | |
| Nevada | 17.83 | 12.23 | MWC | 9 | |
| Creighton | 17.66 | 12.11 | BE | 9 | |
| USC | 16.28 | 0.94 | 11.80 | P12 | 9 |
| St. Bonaventure | 11.68 | 5.47 | 11.76 | A10 | 9 |
| St. John's | 13.76 | 3.34 | 11.72 | BE | 10 |
| Michigan | 17.04 | 11.68 | B10 | 10 | |
| Maryland | 16.97 | 11.63 | B10 | 10 | |
| Virginia Tech | 16.51 | 11.31 | ACC | 10 | |
| Houston | 15.72 | 10.75 | Amer | 11 | |
| Auburn | 15.02 | 10.26 | SEC | 11 | |
| Penn St. | 14.77 | 10.09 | B10 | 12-Dayton | |
| Alabama | 13.27 | 1.40 | 10.02 | SEC | 12-Dayton |
| Minnesota | 14.61 | 9.98 | B10 | 12-Dayton | |
| Kansas St. | 14.57 | 9.95 | B12 | 12-Dayton | |
| Northern Iowa | 6.97 | 4.91 | 8.06 | MVC | 11 |
| Middle Tennessee | 10.43 | 7.05 | CUSA | 11 | |
| Vermont | 9.07 | 6.10 | AE | 12 | |
| College of Charleston | 4.38 | 4.68 | 6.09 | CAA | 12 |
| Northern Kentucky | 8.42 | 5.64 | Horz | 13 | |
| UT Arlington | 8.23 | 5.51 | SB | 13 | |
| Bucknell | 6.02 | 1.37 | 4.92 | Pat | 13 |
| South Dakota | 7.35 | 4.90 | Sum | 13 | |
| Portland St. | 3.32 | 3.43 | 4.48 | BSky | 14 |
| New Mexico St. | 6.67 | 4.42 | WAC | 14 | |
| East Tennessee St. | 6.54 | 4.33 | SC | 14 | |
| Ohio | 1.35 | 5.17 | 4.32 | MAC | 14 |
| Belmont | 5.62 | 3.68 | OVC | 15 | |
| Stephen F. Austin | 4.25 | 2.73 | Slnd | 15 | |
| Iona | 4.14 | 2.65 | MAAC | 15 | |
| Florida Gulf Coast | 2.3 | 1.73 | 2.57 | ASun | 15 |
| Princeton | 4.02 | 2.56 | Ivy | 16 | |
| UC Santa Barbara | 3.39 | 2.12 | BW | 16 | |
| St. Francis PA | -1.42 | 3.61 | 1.28 | NEC | 16-Dayton |
| UNC Asheville | 2.17 | 1.27 | BSth | 16-Dayton | |
| Texas Southern | -3.84 | -2.94 | SWAC | 16-Dayton | |
| Hampton | -8.5 | -6.20 | MEAC | 16-Dayton | |
| Butler | 14.54 | 9.93 | BE | 1st 4 out | |
| Marquette | 13.3 | 1.21 | 9.91 | BE | 1st 4 out |
| Ohio St. | 14.36 | 9.80 | B10 | 1st 4 out | |
| UCF | 8.32 | 5.57 | 9.48 | Amer | 1st 4 out |
| Missouri | 13.84 | 9.44 | SEC | Next 4 out | |
| Oregon | 13.8 | 9.41 | P12 | Next 4 out | |
| Rhode Island | 13.21 | 9.00 | A10 | Next 4 out | |
| Oklahoma St. | 13.6 | -0.61 | 8.84 | B12 | Next 4 out |
| Syracuse | 12.89 | 8.77 | ACC | 3rd 4 out | |
| Providence | 10.57 | 1.84 | 8.44 | BE | 3rd 4 out |
| San Diego St. | 12.13 | 8.24 | MWC | 3rd 4 out | |
| Georgia | 10.7 | 1.42 | 8.23 | SEC | 3rd 4 out |
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JohnPudner
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Monday, December 18, 2017
Finals Week means intro music and some conference analysis
Yes, you tuned into the right podcast it's just slightly more legitimate with intro and outro music. We spent our finals week wisely, hopefully the team did as well because there are a couple of buy games to tune up with then #mubb hits conference season running. With that in mind, we don't spend a lot of time talking about the match-ups with Northern Illinois and American but what impact we expect from Wojo's new toy: Harry Froling. We talk about what Harry's expectations should be and how it does or does not impact our expectations for the season. We also talk about the up coming conference season in general and the first couple of games against Xavier and Georgetown in specific. It'll be the last podcast unitl after Christmas, so happy holidays to everyone and as always, Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Phil Bush
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Sunday, December 10, 2017
Bucky Beatdown
Not much to say, but that was a very satisfiying week for #mubb culminating in a dominating performance against in-state rival University of Wisconsin - Madison extension. Basically we relesh the victory and take stock of where the non-conference performance places the team. Let's get to it. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Phil Bush
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Monday, December 04, 2017
Go ahead and lie down on the couch, we're going to have a bit of a #mubb therapy session
Not to go full Nilihist Arby's but that was a painful loss for Marquette against Georgia. It was a game they needed to win and probably should have won but didn't. We break down the game as well as ask the question "What is wrong with Andrew Rowsey and can he be fixed?". We also spend a little time talking about what we liked from the game but spend most of the time talking about where this leaves the season and how concerned we are. We then looking to the future looking for hope and excitement that is #BadgerHateWeek and a game against Vermont. First up is the Vermont game where we try and figure out why Vermont has a decently ranked KenPom defense but still manages to not be good at a lot of defensive components. It's a must win for MU though and we discuss why. Then we roll into Saturday's big game against hated rival, Wisconsin. We spend a little time reviling in the fact that their basketball program isn't in great shape right now either and how we think the game will go on Saturday. Finally, we spend some time talking about Wojo's tenure at Marquette and whether the fire Wojo crowd will be satisfied this season and what concerns Wojo should have (hint: they won't and none). It's been a tough couple of games, but folks it's #BadgerHateWeek if you can't get excited for that, I don't know what the point is. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Phil Bush
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Wednesday, November 29, 2017
Good thing we didn't podcast on Sunday
Well, as we were all trying to get back into the swing of things after a long weekend of giving thanks and shopping, #mubb decided to jolt us all awake. Given the events of Monday we decided to move all the positive talk to the back end of the podcast and start with the more concerning. First, we talk about the almost disaster that was the Eastern Illinois game. Lots of excuses can be made but at the end the day, it was a really bad performance. One of those excuses is the unexpected announcement that Haanif Cheatham is leaving the program effectiv immediately. To say we were surprised is a mild understatement and we reflect on what this means for the team and the short/long term implications. We then turn to more positive thoughts and discuss the successful Maui Invitational appreance over Feastweek. We close out the podcast by prognosticating on the Chicago State and Georgia games, and what we think we will get out of the Haanif-less MU team. Buckle up, it'll be an interesting week. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Phil Bush
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Sunday, November 19, 2017
Purdue gives us cause for concern but Maui will tell the tale
We're back for a new episode of Scrambled Eggs, which we start off by discussing the disappointing loss to Purdue at home. We talk about the game and whether it really means that nothing has changed with Marquette's defense. We then preview the Maui tournament and it's potential impact on Marquette's non-conference schedule. The discussion turns to the first game of the season, VCU and what we espect to see from that game and how concerned fans should be. Finally, we close out the pod by closing out the Quentin Grimes recruitment. Enjoy the Maui tournament and have a Happy Thanksgiving! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Phil Bush
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Sunday, November 12, 2017
Season has started, let's spend some time over analyzing it
The first game of the season is in the books so we should spend some time talking about it before we turn our attention to the big early season match up against Purdue. So for the first regular season podcsast, we spend time talking about Marquette beating up on "The Mount" and what is anything we can extropolate from it. After we spend a lot of time on the first game we transition to talk about the match up with Purdue and how we think that will go. Turning from the season we currently have, we discuss a recent survey that Marquette sent out about ticket pricing at the new stadium that was...curious. We close out the podcast by discussing where MU stands with Quentin Grimes and whether we feel good about it or not. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Phil Bush
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Monday, October 23, 2017
Buckle up kids, we've got a long Scrambled Eggs pre-season pod for you
It is still the preseason but the last couple of weeks have been action packed for #mubb so we ended up having a mega-Scrambled Eggs pod. First line of discussion, what we've actually seen from the team thanks to two events: Hurricane Relief fundraiser/exhibition against UW-Milwaukee and an open practice for season ticket holders. We talk about key take-aways from this team so far, are we more or less worried than when we had no observable facts, and who among the new comers will be key to this season. We then transition to early talk of the 2018 season, in the form of an on-campus visit for 2018 PG target Quentin Grimes. We talk about what to expect from the visit and afterwards, what Grimes committment or non-committment means to the team, and how to treat the whole thing with dignity (unlike fans/alumni of a certain university 80 miles west of Marquette). We then turn to the full schedule and do a game by game prediction with light analysis of how we see the season going (spoiler alert, Phil is way too optimistic as always and Joe is probably right). Go for a long run or take a road trip, because there is some material to dig through, but after this podcast you should be ready to go and excited for #mubb to start. Enjoy! Download this episode (right click and save)
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Phil Bush
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Sunday, September 24, 2017
Big East Preview Extended to all 32 D1 Conferences - 32 links
For anyone who liked the preview of the Big East yesterday, and was curious about any other conference, here is my link to the rest:
As millions of college students settle on campus, they join alums in watching fellow students compete from the football stadiums to cross country courses such as those my twin Division 1 athletes run. Now www.valueaddbasketball.com rates more than 3,500 basketball players who can start practice in 12 days at Midnight Madness. Pick your conference from the 32 links below for a quick rundown of the top basketball players and teams with a comparison on how each football team ranks.
- ACC: Duke Joins Louisville as National Contender with Bagley Signing
- American Athletic: Ex-Football Big East Schools Add Basketball-only Wichita State
- American East: Albany Chasing Vermont Again
- Atlantic 10: St. Bonaventure Duo Could Challenge Dayton, Rhode Island and VCU
- Atlantic Sun: Florida Gulf Coast Shoots for More Upsets If they can Hold Off Lipscomb
- Big 12: TCU's Bursts into Football Title Hunt, Then Could Challenge in Toughest Hoops Conference
- Big East - St. John's Most Likely to Replace MU to Give Big East 7 Bids Again, Unless MU Defense Improves
- Big Sky: Top 100 Player Hall Leads Balanced Hoops Season after E. Washington Football Dominates
- Big South: Asheville's Top 100 Duo One of Best, But Liberty a Balanced Threat
- Big Ten: Purdue and Michigan State Ready to Seek Hoops Title After Other Big Ten Teams Shoot for Football Title
- Big West Teams All Get to Visit Hawaii While Settling Balanced Hoops Season
- Colonial Athletic Association: After JMU Football, Charleston and Elon Should Battle for March Madness Bid
- Conference USA: UAB Returns to Football Field While Future NBA Star Leads Middle Tennessee
- Horizon League: Hayes Leads 4 Oakland Stars to Potential Title
- Ivy League: Princeton Builds on 23-7 Season to try to hold off Harvard and Yale for Title
- MAAC: Iona Once Again Team to Beat with Edogi Transferring to Join McGill
- Mid-American: Western Michigan Battles for Top Football and Basketball Teams and Top Hoops Player
- Mid-Eastern Athletic's Morgan State Favorite to Dethrone NC Central Behind POY Kendley
- Missouri Valley Teams Battle for Title with Wichita State's Departure, Valpo's Arrival
- Mountain West: UNLV Edges Nevada in Tough Hoops Conference, While San Diego State Football Power
- Northeast: 5-foot-5 Star Shoots for Player of Year, Repeat Title for Mt. St. Mary's
- Ohio Valley:Jacksonville St. Football Dominance Builds on Hoops Upset of Belmont
- Pac-12: USC Hoops Could Surpass Arizona Hoops and Even USC Football
- Patriot - Bucknell Dominance of Patriot League Hoops Should Follow Army-Navy Classic
- SEC: Auburn, Florida, Texas A&M and Mizzou Join Kentucky As 'Basketball' Schools This Year
- Southern - Darryl Strawberry's Son Gives Mercer All-Southern Conference Duo, After Football Team Almost Shocks Auburn
- Southland - Jalan West Given 7th Year for Quest for All-American Status and 1st Southland Title Over Stephen F. Austin
- Summit League: Analytics See Denver Hoops Challenge to Dakota Schools That Dominate Football
- Sun Belt: Lafayette or Georgia Southern Could Deny Troy and Arlington Repeat Hoops Titles
- SWAC: Jerry Rice and Grambling NFL Greats Yield to March Madness Hopes
- WAC - 33 Years After Football National Title, WAC Hosts 1st For-Profit Basketball School
- West Coast: After Football BYU Will Challenge Basketball-only St. Mary's & Gonzaga
Corrections are welcome. Simply email pudnerjohn@takeback.org or call or text 404.606.3163. You are welcome to use links or site top players on any list as “Value Add All-Conference Players.” The first five players on each list are 1st team All-Conference players, the sixth through 10th are 2nd team, and the 11th through 15th are third team based on the actual additional points they add to their team. In most cases, this ranking is similar to what sports writers or sports information directors would perceive, but players can come off the bench with incredibly efficient three-point shooting or dominance around the basket that makes them more valuable than starters who are not as efficient. You can always run your own search of projections for current players or ratings for all players since the 2001-02 season by going to www.valueaddbasketball.com.
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JohnPudner
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