"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, April 07, 2024

Season in reflection

Sadly, what once promised to be a magical #mubb season came to an end over a week ago and we're finally ready to talk about it. We talk about the game result, any takeaways we have regarding the team or it's philosophy and how we get over things. Next we turn to the legacy Tyler and Oso will leave behind at Marquette as this almost assuredly was their last game in blue and gold. Then we do a little bit of looking ahead to figure what the future might hold. Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/d9hk2j/ScrambledEggs_Editted_040724.mp3

Tuesday, March 26, 2024

Scrambled Eggs checks in with Travis Diener

Joe McCann flies solo on this mission but he's in good company because Marquette legend, Travis Diener joins him on the pod. They talk Marquette's first Sweet 16 in 11 years, what this experience is like for the players, and the impact this season can have on the program. Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/2yzf9c/Diener.mp3

Monday, March 25, 2024

N.C. State Wolfpack Preview


David Joplin and Tyler Kolek lifted Marquette back to the Sweet 16

Photo by Alex Martin | Journal & Courier

I don't know that I've ever enjoyed a Marquette win less than I did the game against Colorado. In the aftermath, I was joyful, but in the morning before and while the game was going on, I was a nervous wreck. The butterflies were having a riot in my stomach and my anxiety levels were through the roof. After the game, I took the dogs for a long walk just to burn off some nervous energy. That win was one I needed about as much as I need air itself.

Thanks to fantastic efforts from Tyler Kolek, Kam Jones, David Joplin, Chase Ross, and really the Marquette team as a whole, we advanced to the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2013. Knowing our opponent, it seemed appropriate to break down the North Carolina State Wolfpack in a rematch of the 1974 National Championship game.

D.J. Burns silenced N.C. State's critics en route to the Sweet 16

Photo by Joe Sargent | Getty Images

North Carolina State Wolfpack

March 29, 2024 at American Airlines Center (Dallas, TX)

Head Coach: Kevin Keatts (208-121 overall, 136-93 at N.C. State)

NET Ranking: 63

kenpom Ranking: 53

Projected Starters: PG Michael O'Connell (6'2" Sr), SG D.J. Horne (6'2" 5th), SF Casey Morsell (6'3" 5th), PF Mohamed Diarra (6'10" Jr), C D.J. Burns (6'9" 5th)

Entering the NCAA Tournament, the Wolfpack were in rough shape. They had lost 10 of their last 14 games, were below .500 in conference play, and rumors were swirling that Kevin Keatts would be fired once their season came to an end. Their #76 ranking in kenpom was 8th in the ACC and even optimistic Wolfpack fans would've expected a short trip. Instead, after beating Louisville and Syracuse, they upset Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina on consecutive nights, winning five games in five days and advancing to the NCAA Tournament. After earning an 11-seed for their run, the Wolfpack upset 6-seed Texas Tech and were fortunate to draw 14-seed Oakland in the Round of 32 and defeated the Golden Grizzlies in overtime.

Experience is the hallmark of the Wolfpack roster. They boast three fifth-year starters, bolstered by a junior and senior. The focal point is D.J. Burns, a massive presence listed at 6'9", 275 pounds but likely even more imposing than that. Despite his size, Burns is described by Field of 68 analyst Terrence Oglesby as a "walking refrigerator with ballerina feet." Marquette fans will be reminded of Davante Gardner. Burns is a massive human, but also has great footwork and touch around the rim, and is a crafty distributor who leads the Wolfpack in assist rate. Their next most potent weapon is D.J. Horne, an exceptional shooter (40.6% from three) who can also get to the rim and leads the team in scoring. O'Connell is a lower usage shooter who has been scorching of late (63.6% in their last 7 games, 36.6% overall), Morsell is a slasher who does his best work inside the arc, and Diarra is the glass cleaner who is a lob threat on offense and rim protector on defense. NC State really only goes two deep on the bench, with Butler transfer Jayden Taylor subbing in on the wing and Ben Middlebrooks backing up the front court. Both are serviceable and there's not much lost when they go to the bench, but there isn't a ton of depth there beyond that.

Aside from an excellent turnover rate, the Wolfpack may have one of the most vanilla kenpom Four Factors pages ever. They rank between 130-200 in seven of eight factors on offense and defense. They don't turn it over, but they don't really do anything particularly well or particularly poorly. In terms of overall rankings among Sweet 16 teams, they are last in Adjusted Efficiency Margin, 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency, and 14th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Where the Wolfpack can be most dangerous on offense is in spot up and transition opportunities. They are 80th percentile on spot up jumpers, averaging 1.003 points per possession, and that is an area where Marquette is not very good defensively, landing in the 30th percentile. Expect NC State to try to exploit Marquette's switches in this regard. They are also one of the best transition offenses in the country, ranking in the 86th percentile, though Marquette is better defending transition. Where the Wolfpack could really struggle, though, is on the defensive end. Marquette excels at pick and roll ball handler (90th percentile vs 28th for NC State), pick and roll man (89th vs 52nd), and cuts (95th to 16th). Synergy Sports rates Marquette as excellent in all of those categories and they make up 33.8% of Marquette's offensive possessions.

It's fair to point out that NC State has been much better during their current 7-game winning streak. We sorted T-Rank to find out areas where they've really improved during this incredible run they are on. We show both the numbers per T-Rank along with the national rank in parentheses:

They are playing better on both the offensive and defensive ends. That is largely driven by improvements in shooting on offense and limiting shot takers on defense. That's all fairly straightforward. What seems less so is the bizarre and radical shift in free throw rate on both ends. NC State has gone to the line more often than their opponents in all seven games, nearly doubling opponent attempts (170-94). They haven't had the same reffing crew in any of the games, and of the 21 ref positions worked there have been 17 different refs. There's not any indication of bias, but NC State is making a priority to get to the line and to keep opponents off the line.

So what can we expect from this game? Marquette is favored -6.5 on the point spread, and it's not hard to see why. As impressive as NC State's #22 T-Rank is during their winning streak, Marquette is ranked #14 in the country during that same span and that's with Tyler Kolek only playing 2 of 5 games. If NC State can continue their hot shooting, create open looks, and put pressure on the defense through fouls, they could stay in this game. But more likely I expect Marquette to hold their own on defense while cutting NC State's pick and roll defense to ribbons. As good as D.J. Burns is, he is a defensive liability in pick and roll, and Marquette just exploited a similar big man in Eddie Lampkin for Colorado, who had a plus/minus of -7 in 31 minutes played and it's not surprising Colorado's run back into the game came with Lampkin on the bench. NC State's lack of depth makes that a more difficult task, particularly as the development of Tre Norman and Zaide Lowery allow Marquette to go nine deep if necessary to better weather the aforementioned foul disparity. This is a game that Marquette probably wins nine out of ten times, but it's the NCAA Tournament, and all it takes is coming up short that once to see your season crash to a premature end.

Marquette Connection: 50 years ago today, NC State defeated Marquette 76-64 in the National Championship game to claim their first title. Most of the country felt the title was decided when NC State beat UCLA 80-77 in the Final Four, but Marquette played it close early until legendary coach Al McGuire's temper turned the tide. After taking a 28-27 lead late in the first half, McGuire argued a foul call against Marcus Washington and was hit with his first technical foul. David Thompson made three free throws and NC State scored on the ensuing possession to grab a 32-28 lead. Less than a minute later, McGuire protested a goaltending call on Bo Ellis and was assessed a second technical that allowed NC State to push the lead to 37-28. While he wasn't kicked out (that rule didn't exist) it did result in a 10-0 swing in favor of NC State and Marquette was never able to reclaim the lead.

Joe's Guide to Dallas

I did this a couple years ago when Marquette came to Fort Worth, so I thought I'd do a sequel for Dallas.

I admit I'm not going to be your best Dallas tour guide, as I spend much more time in Fort Worth, where I live. But, since many of you may be visiting the DFW Metroplex for the first time, I figured I could at least toss out some things about Dallas to help you out.

Generally speaking, I find parking in Dallas more challenging than Fort Worth, which has a lot of free garages or places you can at least get it validated. In Dallas, you'll probably find Uber/Lyft rides more convenient in a lot of places. But there are some lots and garages that can work out, depending on where you're going.

American Airlines Center

The home of the Dallas Mavericks and Dallas Stars, the AAC does have some good places to hang out before and after the game that are walking distance from the arena.

Hero is the bar immediately outside the arena, in Victory Plaza. It always has a big crowd before games. A good place for a quick bite or a drink before going inside.

If Hero is too packed, take a look at Black Tap Craft Burgers, which is right across the street. 

A little further out, but still an easy walk to the AAC, is Happiest Hour. It's a very popular pregame spot with a lot of space. If you drive there, though, prepare to have your car valet parked. Any time I've been there, they have been fine with you leaving your car there during a game as long as you valet park it. I can't say for certain it would be the same this weekend, but I assume it would be.

The Union is an area about three or four blocks from the AAC, and they have a handful of restaurants that are good for pregame drinks and food: The Henry, North Italia, and TacoLingo. They have a garage, and you can get your parking validated here, but I'm not certain it would cover the entire night if you leave it there.

El Fenix is a TexMex place across from The Union. Just a fair warning: do NOT try to park in their parking lot and walk to the AAC. There is usually an attendant making sure you're going to El Fenix, and they will tow you if you just park and head toward the arena.


I know my audience. You want to hit some breweries at some point this weekend? I got you. Dallas may not be Milwaukee as far as beer goes, but it has a lot of options. Some of my favorites:

Deep Ellum is one of the more popular DFW brands. Dallas Blonde is their signature beer, but they have something for everyone. This one is about 2 miles southeast of the AAC, and the Deep Ellum area in general can be a fun place to hang out.

Texas Ale Project is one of the closest breweries to the arena, less than 2 miles, but I would not recommend walking because it's on the opposite side of the highway. I like their Fire Ant Funeral, which is a red ale.

Peticolas is also not far from the arena, like Texas Ale Project: less than 2 miles, and also on the opposite of the highway. Try the Velvet Hammer, an imperial red ale.

Community is right up there with Deep Ellum among the more popular craft beers in DFW. It's a short 5-mile drive from the arena. You may even see it as you're driving toward downtown. Nice place to eat and drink. Their Mosaic IPA is a good one.


I mentioned a few places to eat in the American Airlines Center section, but a few others I'll toss out:

Nick & Sam's is a trendy and popular steakhouse if you want to treat yourself, maybe a date night for you and your significant other. It's in Uptown, which is a little north of the AAC and a popular area for the young adult crowd. If you're into the club scene, you'll find places that are your speed in this area.

Want some good BBQ? Pecan Lodge is the place to check out. It's in the Deep Ellum area, on Main Street. If you walk Main Street, you'll find a lot of options to eat and drink, so if barbecue isn't your thing, you'll find something to your liking. Twisted Root is a burger place nearby that I enjoy.

Katy Trail Ice House is a very chill bar with indoor and outdoor seating. As the name suggests, it's right along the Katy Trail, which is a nice walking and jogging path that goes right through Dallas.

Fun Stuff

Dallas doesn't have much in the way of "must see" tourist stuff like a lot of big cities, but if you're looking to do some exploring on Saturday, here are some things I can throw at you.

Texas Rangers - Hey, it's easy to forget baseball season starts this week! If you want to make a trip down to Arlington, the Rangers are playing the Cubs. I know we have a decent amount of Cubs fans in the MU fan base. Plus, you can hang out at Texas Live before or after the game and watch sports. Be sure to visit the Revolver Brewhouse at Texas Live and get a Blood & Honey!

Reunion Tower  - This is the easy-to-spot structure in the Dallas skyline with the giant ball of lights on top. It has a rotating view of the city, and you can get a drink or even dine up there. Crown Block is the restaurant. It's obviously an expensive place, but if you're looking for a fancy dinner with a view, you would have a nice experience there.

Sixth Floor Museum - It's the site of the JFK assassination. It's a very interesting museum that looks at the events of that day.

Perot Museum of Nature and Science - If you have kids to entertain, this is certainly a place you can spend an afternoon. It has a lot of hands-on exhibits that are very fun for children. It's actually pretty close to the American Airlines Center.

Dallas Arboretum and Botanical Garden - Want to just have a nice day outside with the family? This is your place. Bring some food and have a picnic, go for a walk, maybe take some nice Easter photos among all the flowers. This is a great place to just be outside and enjoy nature. If you've been buried in snow for a while, this may feel refreshing for you.

Golf - Yes, we mentioned on the podcast there are a few Topgolf locations in the area, but DFW has a lot of courses if you're looking to play 18 while you're in town. Some are a bit of a drive from downtown Dallas, but a few of my favorites: Cowboys Golf Club in Grapevine is awesome, but it's not cheap. Tour 18 is fun because its holes are inspired by signature holes at iconic American golf courses. The Tribute in The Colony is modeled after some famous courses in Scotland. PGA Frisco is one of the newer ones, but it's a pretty good place to play and also just hang out for a drink or a meal.

I hope those of you visiting find this helpful and enjoy your stay in Dallas!

The Curse is Lifted, or we just figured out how to win tough games, one of the two

Welcome in to a VERY excited Scrambled Eggs podcast. #mubb has broken through to the 2nd week of the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2013 and we are here to celebrate. We talk through the Round of 32 game, how it happened, and the keys to victory. We then turn to the Sweet 16 game against NC State and wrap up the pod with some light Dallas area talk. Celebrate and get ready for what we hope to be a long run. Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/86hev8/ScrambledEggs_Editted_032424.mp3

Friday, March 22, 2024

First half nightmare, second half pleasant dream

#mubb has advanced in the NCAA tournament and while it wasn't as pretty as we would have wanted, it was a solid win. We're back to talk about Marquette's first tournament win since it's last tournament win. We talk about the best episode of the K1 and Stewie show, Tyler, The Healthy and a Jopwagon capable of double doubles. We then talk the next game, which is tough, against Colorado. This is a #ScrambledEggsAfterDark special. Enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/spsg4q/ScrambledEggs_Editted_032224.mp3

Monday, March 18, 2024

Bracketology: Final Thoughts


David Joplin, Shaka Smart, and Zaide Lowery are headed to Indianapolis

Photo by Ebony Cox | jsonline.com

Ultimately, the biggest lesson for any bracketologist is the Selection Committee cannot get it wrong. We may disagree with their decisions, but when they say Marquette is headed to Indianapolis as a 2-seed in the South region, that's where they're going to end up, and it's that way for all 68 teams selected into the field.

In terms of results, Cracked Sidewalks had 67/68 teams correct, 42 teams on their exact seed line, and 61 teams within 1 line. Our unofficial Paymon score, which is the calculation Bracket Matrix uses to score bracketologists, was 346 out of 408 possible points. While it's Cracked Sidewalks' worst score since 2019, our #39 rank is the best in that time period and is in the 83rd percentile of all bracketologists.

What bracketologists try to do is project what the Selection Committee will do. We use historic precedent and contemporaneous data to come to a prediction. Over the past five tournaments, the average Paymon score has improved every year, from 337.8 in 2018 to 356.5 in 2023. Bracketologists have consistently gotten better at predicting what the Selection Committee will do, which is what makes this year so bewildering.

The winning score this year was 355, lower than the average score in 2023. The average this year was just 338.7, the lowest since 2018. So either one of two things happened, the bracketologists were drastically worse at evaluating the field, bucking a 5 year constant upward trend, or the Selection Committee seeded the field differently than past committees have. Due to a number of factors, I strongly believe the answer was the latter.

The Mountain West

One of the biggest talking points was the alleged underseeding of the Mountain West Conference. While the Mountain West earned 6 bids thanks to New Mexico winning the auto bid (they would've been out without it). Selection Committee chair Charles McClelland said "The majority of their best wins came from in conference. They did have some good wins out of conference but they didn't have those great wins." While there may be some validity to this, I reviewed the five Mountain West teams that were considered to be underseeded. There was discussion throughout the year about the Big 12 "gaming" the NET due to playing weak non-con schedules, so I compared those Mountain West teams to the Big 12 teams with the 5 worst NCSOS rankings. The comparison is based on seed given, projected seed by this year's bracketologists, estimated seed based on comparable resumes using T-Rank, and the record these teams accrued in non-conference games away from home in Quadrants 1, 2, and 3.

The Mountain West teams were underseeded by an average of 1.94 using 2024 bracketology projections and 2.24 using historic comparisons. They had an average NCSOS of 166.4 and went a combined 19-7 in meaningful non-con games away from home. The Big 12 teams were seeded exactly (0.008 disparity) by the 2024 bracketologists but were 0.94 better in seeding based on historical comparisons. They had an average NCSOS of 292.8 and went 10-8 in meaningful non-con games away from home.

Quite simply, Charles McClelland's comments were either hypocrisy or a lie. The five Mountain West teams played tougher schedules in non-conference, performed better against those schedules, and were seeded on average 2 lines worse than they deserved while the five Big 12 teams played weaker non-con schedules, performed worse against them, and were seeded on average 1 line better than they deserved. The same Big 12 schools that also got the majority of their wins from in their conference. Blatant hypocrisy.

Indiana State

With all the bid thieves, someone deserving was going to be left out, but even with all that Indiana State should've been in ahead of Virginia, in my opinion. The Sycamores rank #28 in NET and are now the highest NET team to ever be left out of the field. While it is not a primary selection criteria, it is still the NCAA's own metric and no team inside the top-31 had ever been left out before. Further, they were top-45 in every team sheet metric; no team in the top-45 of all metrics had ever been left out.

It's late, and any more feels like it would just be sour grapes, but I do think this tournament highlights two things. First, the Selection Committee should be made up of people who come in understanding the bracketing process and basketball people. Simply being an athletic director or administrator does not give one comprehensive knowledge of college basketball. Second, I would again say this is time for NCAA expansion to 80 teams. This was a strong bubble. Beyond the First Four Out, St. John's, Providence, Ohio State, and Kansas State all had resumes that compared favorably to teams selected in the past. It wouldn't have been difficult to add those eight teams and another four more. South Florida, Richmond, Memphis, Ole Miss, Cincinnati, Syracuse, Wake Forest, and Princeton would all be compelling teams for the expanded Field of 80 Cracked Sidewalks posited in the past.

Here's to another great year of brackets and many more in the future.

It's Dancing Time and We Got the Reset We Wanted

The regular season is done, the conference tournament season is done, even Selection Sunday is done. Now it's time for #mubb to show what it's capable of in the NCAA Tournament. We quickly dissect the Big East Tournament for football....we mean basketball. We then turn to NCAA Tournament bracket and break down Marquette's match-up against Western Kentucky and our overall impression of MU's road to the Final Four. This is what we've all been waiting for, enjoy! https://mcdn.podbean.com/mf/web/jewfk3/ScrambledEggs_Editted_031724.mp3

Sunday, March 17, 2024

Bracketology: Selection Sunday Final

Our final submission is ready to go. Due to Iowa State moving up, Marquette lands in the West with North Carolina, Baylor, and Kentucky as the other protected seeds. Golden Eagle fans may not love seeing Michigan State across the pod from them, but Sparty would have to win two games (Mississippi State, Washington State) to play Marquette due to the bubble chaos forcing MSU to Dayton.

Where We're Prepared to be Wrong:

  • Iowa State as a 1-seed: They have a viable case due to their 10 Q1 wins, but the NCSOS is an anchor so we're sticking with UNC.
  • Illinois/Kansas/Duke/Auburn: This was a really tough scrub that changed multiple times. These teams seem likely to straddle the 3/4 lines, but the order is up in the air.
  • Indiana State: Selection Committee chair Charles McClelland mentioned they were considering the injury to Jayson Kent in their losses to Southern Illinois and Illinois State. Those are the Sycamores only losses outside Q1, but their 1-5 Q1 record might be enough to keep them out anyway. If they're out, Oklahoma and Virginia are the closest teams to the field. It's worth noting that Michigan State looks to be safer than some of the other bubble teams, and their resume is heavily dependent on their Q1 win over Indiana State. Hard to have one of those teams in without the other.
  • Big East Bubble: I love the Big East, so I'd love for it to be a 6-bid league, but I don't see it. All three bubble teams have resume averages at 53 or below, which would be the second worst ever for any of them to get in. Had the bubble not shrunk I think two or maybe all three get in, but with the stolen bids, it seems unlikely the league gets more than 3.
  • St. Peter's Destination: If Purdue, who was knocked out by NEC Champion Fairleigh Dickinson last year, faced the NEC Champion that knocked them off as a 15-seed two years ago it would be objectively hilarious. Bracketing rules prevented it in our scenario, but we'd love to see the Committee put them in.
Here's our best estimation of what the S-Curve and bracket will look like:

Multibid Leagues
Big 12: 8
SEC: 8
Big 10: 6
Mountain West: 6
ACC: 4
Pac-12: 4
Big East: 3
AAC: 2
A-10: 2
Missouri Valley: 2
WCC: 2

Bracketology: Selection Sunday Morning

 I'll have one final post with a final S-Curve and bracket, but this is where we stand. First, a few thoughts:

  • Final 1-seed: Iowa State was considered ahead of North Carolina, but the Cyclones terrible NCSOS isn't something the Selection Committee typically rewards and UNC gaining a Q1A win with Pitt moving up to #40 in the NET is worth noting. We're keeping UNC here, but Iowa State moved to the top of the 2-line.
  • Marquette: Despite the loss to UConn, they remain on the 2-line and at the #8 overall position. There's a good chance this impacts their destination for the second weekend, but they should be locked into Indianapolis.
  • Bid Thieves: A insane four bid thieves took the Big East bubble teams all out of consideration. This moved the teams in the mix for the last two bids to Michigan State, Texas A&M, Indiana State, Oklahoma, and Virginia. Ultimately, Michigan State's metrics, Texas A&M's Q1+2 performance, and Indiana State's across the board metrics and NCSOS earned them bids. Oklahoma looked safe, but when they were in the mix for the last four, their 2-11 record against the field and #274 NCSOS was prohibitive, while Virginia was knocked out because more often than not, when they played a team in contention for the tourney, they lost by double-digits.
Here's the current S-Curve. Final S-Curve and bracket to come:

Friday, March 15, 2024

Bracketology: Quick Hits

Oso Ighodaro and Marquette burst Villanova's bubble
 Photo from gomarquette.com

Bubble teams are making their final statements, other teams are seeing their bubbles burst, and the top seed lines are coming into form. Today we just have an S-Curve and some notes on the events of the week. We'll start with some comments on the shape of the field, then have our updated S-Curve.

The Bubble: 11 teams for 8 spots

This is a big bubble that mercifully shrunk a bit in the past few days. As we've mentioned in the past, Championship Week typically isn't factored as heavily as most college talking heads indicate, but we do pay attention to the Wednesday/Thursday games. If you needed to win beyond Thursday, then you had too much work to do and just need to win your autobid (I'm looking at you, Ohio State). Here's where we came down on the bubble:

Should be safe - Colorado, Mississippi State, Oklahoma

Colorado has all their metrics inside the top-44, is 17-9 against Q1-3, and despite not having the marquee wins of other programs, don't have any real blemishes that hurt them either. Mississippi State needed that win yesterday and if that wasn't enough, today's win over Tennessee may have cemented their position. But even before that they had all their metrics in the top-47, two wins over protected seeds and two more neutral court wins over tourney teams, and a 14-11 record against Q1-3. Oklahoma might be in some trouble, but their SOR of 32 really stands out (all metrics top-50) and while they are just 12-12 against Q1-3, all 12 losses are Q1 and no bubble team has more Q1A wins (3) than the Sooners. One of these might fall to Dayton, but they should all be in.

Reasons for concern - Texas A&M, Virginia, Indiana State

Texas A&M has 5 Q1 wins, is an adequate 14-13 against Q1-3, and all of their metrics are in the top-49. That's the good, but they also are just 2-5 in Q3 and that's a lot of bad losses on the ledger. In the past, they have scheduled poorly, but they are the only bubble team with a top-150 NCSOS and it's a sparkling #21. I think that puts them over the top. Virginia has an awesome #25 SOR, usually a guarantee for selection, but their predictive average is a poor 57.5 because all their losses are by double digits. This is a team that passes the resume test, but does horribly with the eye test. Typically the Committee values the former more heavily, so we have Virginia in for the moment. Every metrics for Indiana State is in the top-44 and no top-32 NET team has ever been left out (they are #28). But they only have one Q1 win and a Q4 loss. Selection Committee chair Charles McClelland noted that Indiana State was missing Jayson Kent for that Q4 loss, so they might get an injury consideration that gets them in. The Sycamores should still be nervous with every bid that's stolen.

Walking the tightrope - St. John's, New Mexico

We felt good about St. John's until taking a second look at their resume. All but one metric is top-43, but their 71 KPI drags their predictive average down to 57, which would be a record low for inclusion. They also only have one win over a surefire tourney team in Creighton. 13-12 against Q1-3 is adequate, but not overly encouraging. Right now they are probably in, but it's close. New Mexico will likely set a new precedent either way. Their 23 NET would be the highest left out, but their 63 SOR would be the lowest included. 13-8 against Q1-3 and six wins over tourney teams is very solid, but their #272 NCSOS is the second worst on the bubble, so they aren't entirely safe.

Outside looking in - Seton Hall, Pittsburgh, Providence

Seton Hall has an impressive #40 SOR, but every other metric is outside the top-60 and they have an 11-12 record against Q1-3. Five Q1 wins including two over protected seeds keep them on the periphery, but right now our vote would be for the Pirates to go to the NIT. Pittsburgh has a lot to like, with a 15-10 record against Q1-3 and all but one metric in the top 42 (and 58 KPI is bad but not prohibitive). But they have the #344 NCSOS, and when you're this close to the cutline, that's a death blow. They would have to break precedent or win the ACC to get in, and I doubt they do either. Providence is 10-12 against Q1-3 and unless they win the Big East tournament will be two games under .500 in that category. No team has ever got in at two games under .500 in Q1-3. Providence's 55.5 resume average would also be the second worst ever, and their resume just doesn't have enough good to offset those negatives.

Need to win their tournament - Ohio State, Oregon, N.C. State

You can't put together a tourney resume during Championship Week, which is what these teams would need to do. Even Ohio State, who has admittedly looked like a different team under Jake Diebler, just can't count on wins this week to bolster their resume. And if you discount their performance under Chris Holtmann, that means discounting their win over Alabama, which is critical to their case. It's just too little too late (see also: 2022 Texas A&M).

Marquette Thoughts: Losses by Duke and Creighton helped solidfy Marquette's hold on a 2-seed, and also likely keeps them in Indianapolis for the first weekend. There are three teams still in the mix for a 2-seed, but it's really only two because Baylor or Iowa State will fall out of 2-seed contention when they play each other tonight. Kentucky is the other team to watch as an SEC Championship coupled with a Marquette loss could push them to a 2-seed in Indianapolis. Tennessee's loss also helps solidify North Carolina as the last 1-seed, which keeps Tennessee as a 2-seed and likely the South region, which makes Marquette as the 2-seed in the Midwest beginning in Indianapolis as the most likely scenario for Marquette fans.