"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Sunday, March 13, 2011

Measuring MUs bracket opponent - list of strengths of all potential NCAA teams

When MUs opponent is announced tonight, scan this list for them and my bracket formula would indicate MU is a favorite if the first number by them is 85 or lower, while MU would be the underdog if the number is 87 or higher.

This year Kansas, Kentucky and North Carolina are the three tournament teams with four projected NBA draft picks in their line-up according to www.nbadraft.net. It typically takes at least three NBA-level players to make the big run, and certainly Ohio State has that with three of the next 32 collegiate players expected to be drafted.

The following table runs through the evolving formula I use to give the chance to indicate how well teams typically do in the tournament based on their NBA talent, experience, how hot they are coming into the tournament, and - most important - just how good they are based on their Sagarin rating.

MU has slightly more experience than average based on www.kenpom.com (giving them a +0.7), but is just about average as a "warm" team coming in, so MUs bracket rating is about the same as Sagarin. MU gets no credit for projected NBA draft picks because I've always used www.nbadraft.net which doesn't have anyone going in the next two drafts, BUT draftexpress does have Jimmy Butler going in the second round.

However, the future is bright as MU is one of only four teams with four freshman or sophomores listed among the 110 players who might go in the 2013 or 2014 draft with draftnet rating Junior Cadougan, Jamil Wilson, Jamail Jones and Vander Blue - if at least three develop into projected picks, MU could make a deep run.

SchoolBracket RatingSagarinHot/injuryExperienceNBA talentProjected NBA Draft Players
Akron7374Hot1.30.0None-6-8 Nikola Cvetinovic best
Alabama8282Cold0.11.482, JaMychal Green, 6-8
Alabama State5961Hot0.70.0None-6-4 Kendererk Washington best
Arizona8987Warm-1.24.01, Derrick Williams, 6-foot-9; 99, Kyle Fogg, 6-3
Ark.-Little Rock7169Warm2.00.0None-6-0 Solomon Bozeman best
Belmont8986Redhot-0.40.0None-6-3 Ian Clark best
Boston College8381Cold2.41.577, Reggie Jackson, 6-foot-3
Boston University7471Redhot-0.80.0None-6-5 John Holland
Bucknell8077Redhot-0.60.0None-6-10 Mike Muscala best
Butler9083Redhot1.32.148, Shelvin Mack, 6--foot-2
BYU9290Freezing0.92.98, Jimmer Fredette, 6-foot-2
Cincinnati8586Hot0.90.0None-6-9 Yancy Gates best
Clemson8584Warm1.20.0None-6-8 Jerai Grant best
Colorado8482Hot0.92.97, Alec Burks, 6-foot-6
Dayton7477Hot-0.40.0None-6-8 Chris Wright best
Duke9694Cold-0.28.22, Kyrie Irving (inj-rate 100 if comes back), 6-foot-2; 17, Nolan Smith, 6-3; 24, Kyle Singler, 6-9
Florida9386Redhot0.02.334, Chandler Parsons, 6-foot-8
Florida St.8884Warm0.04.04, Chris Singleton, 6-foot-9; 90, Xavier Gibson, 6-10
George Mason8585Hot0.42.241, Cam Long, 6-foot-4
Georgetown8786Freezing1.12.242, Austin Freeman, 6-foot-4
Georgia8781Warm1.34.219, Trey Thompkins, 6-foot-10; 71, Travis Leslie, 6-4
Gonzaga8885Redhot-1.20.0None-7-0 Robert Sacre best
Hampton7169Warm2.00.0None-6-6 Darrion Pellum best
Illinois9387Warm1.14.237, Demetri McCamey, 6-foot3; 56, Jereme Richmond, 6-7
Indiana State7975Redhot-0.20.0None-6-3 Dwayne Lathan best
Kansas10894Redhot1.18.910, Marcus Morris, 6-foot-9; 13, Markieff Morris, 6-10; 62, Thomas Robinson, 6-8; 75, Josh Shelby, 6-2
Kansas State8485Hot-0.82.147, Jacob Pullen, 6-foot-0
Kentucky10290Redhot-2.210.33, Enes Kanter, 6-foot-11; 9, Terrence Jones, 6-8; 11, Brandon Knight, 6-3; 67, Doron Lamb, 6-4
Long Island University7975Redhot-0.10.0None-6-7 Julian Boyd best
Louisville9289Redhot-0.40.0None-6-1 Peyton Siva best
Marquette8685Warm0.70.0None-6-7 Jimmy Butler best
Memphis7377Hot-3.81.291, Wesley Witherspoon, 6-7
Michigan8683Redhot-3.22.335, Darius Morris, 6-foot-4
Michigan St.8684Warm1.01.670, Draymond Green, 6-6
Missouri8885Cold0.04.558, Tony Mitchell, 6-foot-8; 85, Laurence Bowers, 6-8; 87, Ricardo Ratcliffe, 6-9
Missouri State8279Warm2.90.0None-6-6 Kyle Weems best
Morehead St.8076Hot2.72.620, Kenneth Faried, 6-foot-8
New Mexico8183Hot-1.51.194, Drew Gordon, 6-foot-9
North Carolina9989Redhot-2.48.05, Harrison Barnes, 6-foot-8; 60, Kendall Marshall, 6-3; 66, John Henson, 6-10; 73, Tyler Zeller, 6-11
Northern Colorado8175Redhot1.30.0None-6-1 Devon Beitzel best
Notre Dame9689Redhot2.90.0None-6-3 Ben Hansbrough best
Oakland8881Redhot0.82.429, Keith Benson, 6-foot-11
Ohio State10395Warm-0.47.94, Jared Sullinger, 6-foot-9; 22, William Buford, 6-5; 32, David Lighty, 6-6
Old Dominion8981Redhot3.30.0None-6-8 Frank Hassell best
Penn State8882Redhot2.10.0None-6-0 Taylor Battle best
Pittsburgh9591Warm1.03.150, Brad Wanamaker, 6-foot-4; 97, Ashton Gibbs, 6-2
Princeton7677Hot0.70.0None-6-7 Ian Hummer best
Purdue9591Hot0.44.921, JaJuan Johnson, 6-foot-10; 38, E'twaun Moore, 6-3
Richmond8683Hot2.42.431, Justin Harper, 6-foot-10
Saint Mary's-Cal.8284Cold-0.30.0None-6-0 Mickey McConnell best
Saint Peter's7573Warm1.80.0None-6-7 Ryan Bacon best
San Diego St.9789Redhot1.42.812, Kawhi Leonard, 6-foot-7
St. Johns9585Redhot3.92.243, Justin Brownlee, 6-foot-7
Syracuse9089Hot-1.24.330, Rick Jackson, 6-foot-9; 59, Kris Joseph, 6-7
Temple8284Hot0.40.0None - 6-4 Ramone Moore best
Tennessee8782Cold0.85.326, Tobias Harris, 6-foot-8; 79, Cameron Tatum, 6-6; 83, Scotty Hopson, 6-7
Texas9692Cold-0.97.315, Tristan Thompson, 6-foot-9; 18, Jordan Hamilton, 6-7; 57, Cory Joseph, 6-3
Texas A&M8684Warm0.51.955, Khris Middleton, 6-foot-7
Texas-San Antonio(UTSA)6568Hot-0.90.0None-6-0 Devin Gibson best
UAB8181Warm-0.40.0None-6-4 Jamarr Sanders best
UC Santa Barbara7674Warm1.80.0None-6-5 Orlando Johnson best
UCLA8582Warm-2.05.116, Tyler Honeycutt, 6-foot-8; 33, Malcolm Lee, 6-5
UConn9087Redhot-3.02.623, Kemba Walker, 6-foot-1
UNLV8587Hot0.40.0None-6-4 Tre'Von Willis best
USC8383Hot0.61.289, Nikola Vucevic, 6-foot-10
Utah State8886Hot3.40.0None-6-7 Tai Wesley best
UTEP8480Warm3.20.0None-6-0 Randy Culpeper best
Vanderbilt9086Warm-0.74.864, John Jenkins, 6-foot-4; 74, Jeffery Taylor, 6-7; 76, Festus, 6-11
VCU8078Warm1.80.0None-6-9 Jamie Skeen best
Villanova8986Freezing0.83.952, Corey Fisher, 6-foot-1; 53, Maalik Wayns, 6-1
Virginia Tech8785Warm2.00.0None-6-3 Malcolm Delaney best
Washington9189Hot1.02.144, Matthew Bryan-Am…, 6-8
West Virginia8887Hot2.70.0None- 6-8 Kevin Jones best
Wisconsin9690Warm1.14.727, Jon Leuer, 6-foot-11; 96, Jordan Taylor, 6-1
Wofford7977Hot4.00.0None-6-6 Noah Dahlman best
Xavier9083Redhot1.51.195, Tu Holloway, 6-foot-0

The first number is the overall rating I used when pitting teams against each other in the bracket - with up to a 2-point adjustment for a semi-home game once we know where two teams are playing each other.

The Sagarin rating is the next number listed, and is the main basis for the bracket rating.

A team gets a +4 if they are "red hot," +2 for "hot," no change for "warm," -2 for "cold" and -4 if a key player is missing or they have been very cold recently.

The experience rating is based on the Pomeroy rating based on how many seniors, juniors, sophomores and freshmen are typically on the court.

Finally, the NBA talent rating gives 4 points for the first college player expected to be picked (Derrick Williams of Arizona) down to 1 point for the last college player expected to be picked in next year's draft.

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