"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Monday, April 02, 2012

Projecting 2012-13 (Part 2 of 4): Kentucky losing most talent, while Indiana, Creighton, Ohio St. and Duke returning the most – MU 44th

The table of the 50 teams returning the most talent this year (not counting returning redshirts covered in Part 1 or freshman covered in Part 3) is at the bottom of this post. But first, for the hardest hit by departures.

"We will go from having the 2nd best duo in the country, to more of a committee of five excellent players – any of whom could explode. As for the projections, Gardner projects at #151 (even though Value Add doesn’t adjust for his time missed with injury, so could easily be top 100), J. Wilson is #307, Blue #369, Mayo #441 and Cadougan #489 (all in the top 12% of all D1 players)."

After their national championship tonight, Kentucky will be hit the hardest by player departures, losing 36.87% Value Add while keeping only the 3.59% from Kyle Wiltjer (ranked as the 1060th most valuable player this year). Their opponent Kansas will be the 4th hardest hit (20.72% Value Add lost), and Marquette isn’t far behind at 9th worst hit, amazing since we only lost two (incredible) players:

TeamReturningDepartingValue Add ranks of departing players for 10 hardest hit teams
Kentucky3.5936.87#1 Davis, #39 Gilchrist, #60 Jones, #67 Lamb, 3 others
UNC10.1921.36#13 Zeller, #117 Marshall, #123 Henson, #310 Barnes
Missouri14.8720.75#20 Denmon, #45 Ratliffe, #137 English, 2 others
Kansas12.9220.72#10 Robinson, #37 Withey, #109 Taylor, #1141 Teahan
Wichita St.8.0320.56#50 Ragland, #168 Stutz, #273 Murry, #355 Smith, #462 Kyles
Florida St.6.5218.77#118 James, #124 Snear, #427 Loucks, #598 Dulkys, 3 others
Vanderbilt9.4818.16#46 Taylor, #125 Tinsley, #190 Goulbourne, #774 Ezeli, 1 other
Purdue8.2817.04#34 Hummel, #128 Jackson, #265 Smith, #869 Barlow
Marquette19.0016.39#2 Crowder, #93 Darius Johnson-Odom
Michigan St.3.8415.43#3 Green, #350 Wood, #465 Thornton

Except for John Calipari, who simply reloads every year with star freshman, returning players are the biggest part of most teams success in the coming year.

This is because 27% of players leave their teams, but they take 37% of the Value with them, as shown by this table. Returning players who played substantial minutes this year will likely provide about 82% of the roughly 4400% Value Add in the 2013 season, with returning red shirts, freshman and little used players stepping up combining for the other 18%.

PlayersOffDefVal Add
Returning, 2012 Value Add25231692.82-491.072771.39
Returning, Projected 201325232441.51-569.643598.65

Edit: I learned after first posting this that apparently Sean Miller agreed with my surprise calculation last month that TJ McConnell of Duquesne was one of the 20 most valuable players in the country. Last week McConnell announced he will transfer from Duquesne to either UVA or Arizona, who could truly be loaded again if he joins their top incoming class in 2014.

That means that it is possible the top 18 Value Add players could all move on for 2013, meaning #19 Doug McDermott is the top player who has declared he will return to a loaded Creighton team. On the Final Value Add Calculations tonight, I flagged each player as a “Grad,” “Transfer Out,” “DraftA” (declared for draft), “DraftB” (expected to go in draft), “?DraftC” (50/50 on going to draft), “?DraftD” (probably staying), or left the flag blank if they are coming back. For purposes of the math in this piece, I have assumed that C. Zeller, Jenkins, Canaan and all the other DraftC and DraftD players stay with their team, but even that would leave only four of the top 20 players returning for 2013. I’ll publish the top 2500 with Part 4, but for now here is the final top 20 (though Davis and Robinson could still move slightly tonight in their game, and Total Value Add can be more than "Off minus Def" if player gets credit for bringing the ball up the court):

RnkPlayerTeamHtYrOffDefVal AddGone?
1Anthony DavisKentucky6' 10"Fr7.29-5.0612.35DraftB
2Jae CrowderMarquette6' 6"Sr6.24-4.8911.12Grad
3Draymond GreenMichigan St.6' 7"Sr4.11-4.009.11Grad
4Kevin JonesWest Virginia6' 8"Sr7.67-0.978.65Grad
5Cody ZellerIndiana6' 11"Fr6.69-1.808.50?DraftC
6Jared SullingerOhio St.6' 9"So5.66-2.718.37DraftB
7Will BartonMemphis6' 6"So5.62-2.488.10DraftA
8Damian LillardWeber St.6' 2"Jr7.060.008.06DraftA
9Jordan TaylorWisconsin6' 1"Sr5.69-0.757.94Grad
10Thomas RobinsonKansas6' 9"Jr4.11-3.707.81DraftB
11Reggie HamiltonOakland5' 11"Sr6.790.007.79Grad
12C.J. McCollumLehigh6' 3"Jr4.30-2.447.74DraftA
13Tyler ZellerNorth Carolina7' 0Sr5.35-1.897.74Grad
14John ShurnaNorthwestern6' 9"Sr6.73-0.967.69Grad
15John JenkinsVanderbilt6' 4"Jr7.180.007.68?DraftC
16T.J. McConnellDuquesne6' 1"So3.32-2.667.48 
17Scott MachadoIona6' 1"Sr5.330.007.33Grad
18Isaiah CanaanMurray St.6' 0Jr5.54-0.717.25?DraftC
19Doug McDermottCreighton6' 7"So7.230.007.23
20Marcus DenmonMissouri6' 3"Sr6.88-0.207.08Grad

When we add up the Value Adds of just the returning players – not the returning red shirts we covered in Part 1 or the freshman we will cover in Part 3 – Cody Zeller projects to improve as a sophomore to be the top player in the country at 11.50% and give Indiana the most returning talent at 34.09%, while Doug McDermitt projects to be the second most valuable player at 10.23% and give Creighton the 2nd most returning talent at 28.86%. We never assume a player gains more than 3% in Value Add, which limits these two and a dozen others, but in other cases the projected offensive and defensive Value Adds projected to multiply by the following percentages depending on what year the player is (sophomores improve the most over their freshman year on average).

Projected Value Add improvementOffenseDefAve. Total
becoming sophomore2.461.162.85
becoming junior1.461.161.69
becoming senior1.131.161.30

The good news is that despite losing so much talent, Marquette still projects to be in the Top 50 in returning talent alone because Marquette is one of only ten teams with five returning players (not looking at 2012 redshirts Otule, Thomas or the freshmen yet) to project to be in the top 500. We will go from having the 2nd best duo in the country, to more of a committee of five excellent players – any of whom could explode. As for the projections, Gardner projects at #151 (even though Value Add doesn’t adjust for his time missed with injury, so could easily be top 100), J. Wilson is #307, Blue #369, Mayo #441 and Cadougan #489.

The only other nine teams with five returning players in the top 500 are; Creighton, Duke, Indiana, K-State, LaSalle, St. Louis, Syracuse, VCU and Wisconsin.

The following are the 50 teams with the most returning Value Add from players who played substantial minutes this year, followed by a few other potential future opponents. The nice thing about Value Add is that as rosters change through recruits or additional players changing their mind on the NBA Draft, you simply add or subtract their Value Add number. So if Cody Zeller announced for the draft, you subtract his projected 11.50% and Indiana drops from 1st on this list at 34.09% Value Add to 23rd on the list at 22.59% Value Add. Here is the list, and we will cover the freshman projections in the next piece, and please post a comment or email jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com any time you note a correction or update.

RnkTeamReturning 2013Lost 2012Notes on returnee projections
1Indiana34.094.61#1 Zeller, #172 Watford need to stay
2Creighton28.864.31#2 McDermott plus 4 in top 500
3Ohio St.27.1912.00#5 Craft needs #10 Thomas to stay
4Duke26.357.18Ma. Plumlee, Kelly, Curry, Cook top 200
5Gonzaga25.283.98#13 Pangos, #96 Bell
6Saint Joseph's24.970.00#8 Galloway, #66 Aiken
7Notre Dame24.892.30#16 Cooley, #44 Grant PLUS Abromaitis
8Oregon St.24.790.00#63 Collier +2 top 400
9Wisconsin24.559.26#84 Gasser, #121 Berggren, #157 Evans
10Minnesota24.121.54doesn't count Mbakwe, medical redshirt
11Kansas St.24.064.16#27 McGruder plus 4 top 500
12Pittsburgh24.026.44#33 Patterson +2 top 300
13Florida23.9312.50#25 Boyton, #88 Young prob. Staying
14Memphis23.8511.28#60 Black, #73 Crawford, #140 Jackson
15La Salle23.844.46#85 Duren, #92 Wright plus 3 top 500
16Louisville23.549.55#15 Dieng, #54 Behanan plus healthy Siva
17Illinois St.23.470.00Carmichael, Ekey, Moore top 200
18Syracuse23.4120.92#64 Fair plus 4 top 500
19Davidson23.400.15Cochran, Cohen, Brooks top 200
20Texas23.3911.97#30 McClellan, #91 Holmes, #153 Kabongo
21Richmond23.203.19#74 Anthony +3 top 300
22Providence22.860.00#43 Henton, #56 Cotton, lost noone
23New Mexico22.607.20#89 Williams, #100 Greenwood +2 top 500
24VCU22.573.79like Marquette, 5 between #150 and #500
25St. Louis22.475.79#78 Mitchell plus 4 top 500
26South Dakota St.22.373.46#21 Wolters should stay
27Michigan St.22.2015.43#69 Dawson, #80 Appling + 2 top 400
28California21.975.91#40 Cobbs plus two top 100s
29Ohio21.400.35#98 Cooper +2 top 250
30North Carolina St.21.004.42#45 Brown, needs Leslie to stay
31Alabama20.786.87Releford #22, plus 8 others
32Tennessee20.742.24#79 Golden and … #199 Maymon
33Rutgers20.521.244 top 500, lost only Biruta
34St. Mary's20.208.45#34 Dellavedova, #111 Holt, #114 Waldow
35Georgetown20.1115.31#4 Porter, Lubick and Trawick top 500
36South Carolina Upstate19.900.97#75 Green, #102 Craig
37Northern Iowa19.601.12#20 Tuttle +3 top 500
38Miami FL19.424.29#119 Scott plus three top 500
39Colorado St.19.332.42#48 Hornung, plus three top 500s
40Drexel19.273.62#18 Massenat, #81 Lee
41Iowa19.226.45#77 White, #126 Marble
42Akron19.042.03all 7 back, Abreu #158,plus two top 250
43Bucknell19.040.50#59 Muscala, plus 8 others
44Marquette19.0016.395 in top 500 plus returning Otule, J. Thomas
45Baylor18.9014.92#31 Walton, #46 Jackson
46Houston18.631.45ready with #61 Thomas, #148 Young, #360 Harris
47Temple18.607.90#28 Wyatt plus 3 top 500
48Stanford18.585.96#53 Randall, #142 Bright
49North Dakota St.18.561.34#115 Bjorklund +7 back
50Virginia Tech18.463.30#58 Green apparently staying
 Cincinnati13.2112.96#50 Wright, plus two top 500s
 Connecticut17.3911.16if #17 Napier, #104 Boatwright go, then no top 500
 Seton Hall15.209.78#52 Edwin, #497 Cosby
 Southern Methodist6.362.88lost only top 1000 player, #476 Nyakundi
 Villanova15.915.27#235 Yarou, #290 Cheek
 Wisconsin Green Bay15.371.59#167 Brown plus 3 in top 500

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