"My rule was I wouldn't recruit a kid if he had grass in front of his house.
That's not my world. My world was a cracked sidewalk." —Al McGuire

Tuesday, April 03, 2012

Projecting 2012-13 (Part 4 of 4): Projecting the top 100 teams and top 2000 players for the 2012-13 season

The following are the projected Top 100 basketball teams for the 2012-13 season based on Value Add projects, which are explained below the table. The number to the left of each team indicates where the team would rank if they sign the key recruit(s) they are in contention for (“?recruit” on the link) and kept any player on the fence on entering the NBA draft (“?draft”), while there is a note on how far they would fall if they do not. The following are the links to the top 2000 players for 2012-13:

Air Force to Furman projected top 2000 players for 2012-13 season

Gardner Webb to Marist projected top 2000 players for 2012-13 season

Marquette to Syracuse projected top 2000 players for 2012-13 season

Temple to Youngstown State projected top 2000 players for 2012-13 season

And here are the top 100 teams:

If get/keep all 50/50s recruits & NBA prospectsValue Add best caseIf lose/don't get any 50/50sValue Add worst case
1Indiana47.30drops to 17th31.13
2Duke42.93drops to 42nd23.88
3UCLA39.03drops to 34th25.96
4North Carolina St.37.80drops to 29th27.50
5Texas37.10drops to 16th32.61
6Kentucky35.91drops to 78th17.66
7Georgetown35.71drops to 36th25.38
8Louisville35.58drops to 23rd29.24
9Notre Dame35.51solid - at least 9th35.51
10Baylor34.23drops to 18th31.57
11Pittsburgh33.66drops to 30th33.66
12Florida33.54drops to 30th27.46
13Ohio St.33.23drops to 75th18.73
14Missouri33.01drops to 26th28.52
15Memphis32.97drops to 29th27.85
16Michigan St.31.72solid - at least 16th31.72
17Minnesota31.63drops to 19th30.22
18Providence30.36solid - at least 18th30.36
19Kansas30.34drops to 54th22.12
20Nevada Las Vegas29.95drops to 38th25.23
21Creighton29.74solid - at least 21st29.74
22Oregon St.29.41solid - at least 22nd29.41
23Syracuse29.00solid - at least 23rd29.00
24Wisconsin28.86solid - at least 24th28.86
25Tennessee28.64solid - at least 25th28.64
26California28.42solid - at least 26th28.42
27Iowa St.28.37solid - at least 27th28.37
28Michigan28.01drops to 98th15.72
29Gonzaga27.48drops to 53rd22.37
30Villanova26.80drop to 57th21.27
31Connecticut26.38drop out of top 10012.56
32Iowa26.24solid - at least 33rd26.24
33Marquette26.22solid - at least 33rd, as high as 24th26.22
34Saint Joseph's26.10solid - at least 34th26.10
35Temple25.49solid - at least 35th25.49
36New Mexico25.32solid - at least 36th25.32
37Alabama25.28drop to 62nd20.78
38Kansas St.24.86solid - at least 38th24.86
39Illinois St.24.54solid24.54
42La Salle23.84solid23.84
43North Carolina23.72drops to 91st16.82
44Virginia Commonwealth23.72solid23.72
47San Diego St.23.26drop to 76th18.39
51West Virginia22.80solid22.80
52St. Louis22.80solid22.80
53South Dakota St.22.37solid22.37
57Colorado St.21.35solid21.35
58Virginia Tech21.34solid21.34
59Miami FL21.28drop to 75th18.22
61St. Mary's20.83solid20.83
62Oklahoma St.20.75solid20.75
63Seton Hall20.56drop to 77th18.03
64South Carolina Upstate19.90solid19.90
66Northern Iowa19.60solid19.60
67Oregon19.49 14.77
68Washington19.43 14.71
70Texas Tech19.18solid19.18
77Utah St.17.76solid17.76
78Murray St.17.65drop out of top 1009.57
79Southern California17.64drop out of top 10015.10
80Georgia17.58drop out of top 10014.55
81South Florida17.55solid17.55
86Central Florida17.24solid17.24
88Washington St.17.14solid17.14
89South Carolina17.09solid17.09
90Middle Tennessee16.89solid16.89
92Georgia Tech16.42solid16.42
93Robert Morris16.29solid16.29
94Mississippi St.16.14solid16.14
95East Carolina16.06solid16.06
97Cleveland St.15.78solid15.78

As an example, if Duke signs Shabazz Muhammad, Tony Parker and Amile Jefferson, and Mason Plumlee stays for another year before going to the draft, then based on Value Add Duke would rank No. 2 in the country. However, if none of those players play for Duke next year then they would drop all the way to 42nd.

If you have questions on how any players performance was projected, you can refer back to the first three parts of this series on; 1, red shirts returning to action, 2, the average improvement of players from the 2010-11 season, and 3) incoming freshmen. There were few final calculations for players, such as adding the defensive penalty for players who show no value on defense and are part of a team that gives up more than 1.025 points per trip down the court against and average offense, and there are some slight changes in players ranks from the Part 2 article because we have now grouped all returning players into one ranking.

Indiana would rank No. 1 in the country if Cody Zeller and Christian Watford stay, but even if they both left Indiana would rank as the 17th best team in the country.

Other teams like Marquette appear set for the 2012-13 season, so they are just waiting to see which teams near them in the standings get recruits to improve themselves. Based on only players who are “definitely” playing right now, Marquette is the 24th best team in the country based on projected Value Add. However, if every team behind Marquette were to get every player they were pursuing or trying to keep, then Marquette could fall as low as 33rd place.

I personally believe that Marquette is a solid top 20 team, because these numbers are based on the typical improvement a college player makes between his freshman and sophomore year, junior and senior year, etc. The fact is that players under Buzz Williams have progressed at a much better pace than anticipated, resulting in McNeal and Matthews going from pretty good players to 2nd team All-American and highest paid 2nd year player in the NBA respectively; Lazar Hayward went from the 2nd best player on his high school team to a 1st round NBA pick; Jimmy Butler went from a ZERO star recruit to first round NBA pick, and Jae Crowder went from being projected as the 48th most valuable player this year to actually becoming the 2nd most valuable.

With potential for so many players to take it to another level this year under Buzz, I believe some combination of Davante Gardner, Jamil Wilson, Vander Blue, Todd Mayo will jump well past the projected Value Add and push Marquette solidly into the Top 20.

As noted on each link to the players, please post a comment or email to jpudner@concentricgrasstops.com to point out any errors or changes.

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